Best Scheme Fit: Speedy No.
2 who can play off the line (Z or slot) initially in the majority
of high-volume NFL passing attacks. He could emerge as a Ridley-like
lead receiver in time.
Best Team Fit(s): Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs,
Colts, Cowboys, Giants, Packers, Saints
Non-bolded times - Good examples of attribute Bolded times - Average/poor examples of attribute
Pre-Draft Fantasy Prospect
Grade* (out of 50): 40.0
* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For receivers, a player needs to be a realistic
threat for 70 catches and 1,000 receiving yards at some point
early in their career to be a candidate for a perfect grade. Positional
scarcity at the pro level is also a part of the equation.
Positives
The NFL Combine verified what most evaluators already knew: Olave
is fast. He is also a high-level route-runner who understands how
to tempo and sell his routes to get open in the short and intermediate
areas of the field. While Ohio State's offensive scheme tends to
allow its receivers to operate in space, there is enough evidence
of him making his own breaks on non-bubble screen throws or straight
go routes to suggest he is not a scheme-dependent receiver. (Only
19 of his 65 catches in 2021 came on screens and deep throws, per
Pro Football Focus.) Once we get past his speed, the next thing
that jumps out most on his 2021 film is his body control and awareness
along the sideline. Most receivers who excel in those two areas
also tend to have very good hands and that is the case here as well.
Per PFF, Olave recorded a career drop rate of 4.9 percent. While
he is not going to create much after contact, he is nevertheless
a handful after the catch if he has some space in which to operate
(such as on a drag route against zone coverage). The California
native also offers value on special teams (two career punt blocks).
Negatives
For what it is worth, there are not a lot of wide receiver prospects
who stood at least 6-0 and weighed less than 190 pounds at the Combine
who have enjoyed long-term success in the NFL. One area where his
lack of strength shows up repeatedly is once the ball is in his
hands. While he is often masterful in getting open, he only forced
two missed tackles in 2021 and 10 throughout his four-year college
career (across 176 catches and three rushing attempts). At least
early on in his pro career, it would seem to make him the rare prospect
who has exceptional speed but may have to settle for more of a possession
receiver role since he doesn't offer one obvious matchup advantage
(exceptional size, strength, leaping ability, etc.). Adding functional
lower-body strength (while not losing his speed) will likely be
the major determining factor in whether he becomes a featured receiver
at some point. Although his effort is usually solid when he blocks,
his lack of strength also shows up when he attempts to do it. In
a league that seems to be focusing more on a receiver's ability
to win in contested-catch situations, Olave has stunningly little
film where he is asked to high-point the ball. Is this a product
of his somewhat average vertical jump (especially for a receiver
of his size)?
Bottom Line
On one hand, there is no screaming weakness in Olave's game, outside
of maybe his run-after-catch ability, which could easily be something
he can improve after making football his full-time job and working
with an NFL strength coach. On the other hand, it is hard to say
any part of his game is truly elite, although his route-running
and body control on sideline throws are very good. College receivers
who enter the pro game with a solid grasp of how to run good routes
typically enjoy solid NFL careers, so it would seem Olave is a high-floor
prospect at worst with the potential to be something approaching
Calvin Ridley in a few years if he finds a good home later this
month. At the beginning of his pro career, his NFL team will likely
need to line him at Z or in the slot to maximize his effectiveness
since he figures to struggle against press coverage until he adds
some more muscle. For the foreseeable future, Olave will likely
be much more useful in between the 20s than near the end zone simply
because his relative lack of athleticism is not going to make him
an attractive target on back-shoulder or high-point throws. That
is not necessarily a huge knock on him, but it probably makes him
more of a solid complementary option as opposed to a No. 1 receiver.
--- Predict
the top ten picks of the NFL Draft for a chance to win FFToday prizes.
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now. Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
Predict
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