Pre-Draft Fantasy Prospect
Grade* (out of 50): 41.5
* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For running backs, a player needs to be a
three-down option as well as a realistic threat for 1,000 rushing
yards and 500 receiving yards to be a candidate for a perfect
grade. Positional scarcity at the pro level is also a part of
the equation.
Positives
What Spiller lacks in jaw-dropping ability, he makes up for in
being very balanced in many important areas for a running back.
He boasts near-ideal size for the position (6-0, 217) and proved
more than capable of handling a lead-back role over his three seasons
in College Station. He also has very good hands (zero drops in 2021)
and was trusted to pick up rushers/blitzers on a much more regular
basis than many of today's college backs. Spiller was often utilized
as something more than a dump-off/screen option, occasionally beating
defenders on arrow and/or wheel routes. While patience can be a
double-edged sword for running back at times, Spiller often makes
the right call in letting things play out in front of him before
accelerating through the hole. While his film does not contain a
plethora of bone-jarring runs, he generally plays with a good pad
level and falls forward. Spiller also flashes the occasional jump-cut
to make a tackler look foolish in space. To that end, Pro Football
Focus charted him with 56 missed tackles forced last season. Although
Spiller doesn't possess game-breaking speed and will not outrun
many back-seven defenders with pursuit angles, his 18 explosive
runs (carries of at least 15 yards) ranked 16th in the country last
season, per PFF.
Negatives
Spiller's biggest shortcoming at the moment might be his slightly
above-average athleticism for his position (as his Combine numbers
would indicate), which leads to him being more of a doubles hitter
instead of a home run hitter. Because he doesn't boast elite acceleration,
his aforementioned patience works against him when he is even a
split-second slow in processing and the offensive line springs a
leak; it is a flaw he will need to correct because he will see penetration
on a somewhat regular basis in the NFL. While Spiller recorded only
three lost fumbles during his college career (all of which happened
as a freshman), he was charged with eight fumbles on 615 career
touches. Despite his aforementioned awareness in pass pro, he does
not always execute well enough to keep the defender from hurrying
the quarterback. (To his credit, he improved in this area as the
2021 season progressed.) Although his statistics do not necessarily
reflect it, Spiller looked significantly more explosive and confident
in his running ability in 2020 than he did last season. (Check out
his work against Florida in 2020 and compare it to any of his games
in 2021.)
Bottom Line
Perhaps one of the best attributes Spiller possesses is his youth:
he is the youngest running back prospect in this draft and will
not turn 21 until August. As for his overall game, he does a lot
well but nothing at an elite level. His vision and contributions
as a receiver and blocker in the passing game may be his best traits,
which bodes well for his long-term future given how pass-oriented
the NFL has become. While he is very much a north-south back, Spiller
runs with power but is hardly a bulldozer. He possesses some wiggle
and enough fluidity to his game to make defenders miss at the second
level, but it is not something he is going to rely on heavily. The
argument could be made he was better as a freshman and sophomore
than he was as a junior, and that is a question that evaluators
will need an answer to by the time draft day rolls around. If they
get the pre-2021 version for the bulk of his pro career, a Joe Mixon
comp may be more accurate. If they get the 2021 version, then Spiller
will probably settle into a lead-back role but one that loses touches
to a more dynamic satellite back.
--- Predict
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now. Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
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is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
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