Pre-Draft Fantasy Prospect
Grade* (out of 50): 41.0
* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For receivers, a player needs to be a realistic
threat for 70 catches and 1,000 receiving yards at some point
early in their career to be a candidate for a perfect grade. Positional
scarcity at the pro level is also a part of the equation.
Positives
Dotson may have the best hands of any receiver prospect in this
draft class (only two drops on 138 targets last season and a 5.2
percent drop rate for his career). The former track star is also
a silky smooth route-runner, regularly changing up his release and
the tempo of his route to keep his defender off-balance. There is
little wasted motion or footwork in his game, which only accentuates
his quickness and change-of-direction skills. He also sells his
routes with multiple head/body fakes if/when necessary to keep his
man honest. For a smaller receiver (5-11, 184), Dotson is very adept
in contested-catch situations and boasts a surprisingly large catch
radius for someone with his dimensions. He does this in part because
he times his jump so well on inaccurate/high throws and finds a
second gear to create late separation. Considering his strong and
reliable hands, speed and ability to play the ball in the air, it
should come as no surprise Dotson busted loose for nine 40-yard
receptions over his final two seasons. His combination of speed
and quickness makes him a nightmare in space, which accounts for
the bulk of his run-after-catch grade above. He also offers value
on special teams, having served as the Nittany Lions' primary punt
returner in 2020 and 2021 (14.3 yards/return and one touchdown on
22 attempts).
Negatives
Dotson is yet another prospect in this draft class who checks
in the low-to-mid 180-pound range with questionable strength. His
lack of functional strength tends to show up in two key areas, forcing
missed tackles and creating more yards after the catch on shorter
passes. Per Pro Football Focus, the 22-year-old averaged a mere
5.3 yards after the catch in 2021 and forced nine missed tackles
- both of which rank on the low end in this draft class. He accumulated
only 132 yards on screen plays (36th) despite racking up 26 catches
on screen plays (15th). Dotson's quickness usually helps him get
a clean release, but he has to do a better job of winning the hand-fighting
battle off the line of scrimmage and avoid focusing solely on coming
out of the blocks. While there is no question he is one of this
draft class' most savvy route-runners, there were multiple times
where he allowed a defender to break on the ball because his break
was not as crisp as it should have been. The willingness to block
is there, but this is another area where his relative lack of functional
strength shows up.
Bottom Line
Folks who point to size and/or analytics such as breakout age
will be quick to dismiss Dotson, but there is a good chance those
folks will end up being wrong about him. The ability to create space
and change directions effortlessly tends to carry over well from
the college to the pro game. Those are two areas in which Dotson
excels. While he needs to add some strength, it is rare to find
a receiver with the intelligence, quickness and ability to high-point
the ball he possesses. His limitations (or concerns) right now are
mostly fixable (or at least can be greatly minimized), so it would
be something of a surprise if he does not become his team's primary
slot option right away. Much like Sanders or even Tyler Lockett,
Dotson would probably fit in best as a team's complementary option
for the first year or two of his career. However, it also would
not come as a surprise if Dotson's career begins in much the same
way Johnson's has. That is not to say he will be a 100-catch wideout
by his third year (Johnson benefited from late-career Ben Roethlisberger's
desire to get rid of the ball as quickly as possible), but Dotson
should not struggle to be a high-volume option. While players such
as Garrett Wilson or Jameson Williams will likely generate more
buzz in 2022, Dotson could easily enjoy more success than both and
end up being the best wideout from this class in the right scheme.
--- Predict
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now. Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
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