* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For running backs, a player needs to be a
three-down option as well as a realistic threat for 1,000 rushing
yards and 500 receiving yards to be a candidate for a perfect
grade. Positional scarcity at the pro level is also a part of
the equation.
Positives
Robinson is a willing inside runner who possesses great contact
balance and shows no fear in lowering the boom to churn out yards
after contact (1,071 YAC in 2022, per Pro Football Focus). The problem
for defenders is that he is also very light on his feet for a bigger
back, often stacking multiple moves to make something out of nothing.
He consistently uses a jump-cut to throw off the timing of defenders
and possesses a stiff arm that leaves defenders eating dirt; he
is just as apt to run through a defender as he is to leave him grabbing
air. (To that end, PFF credited him with forcing 104 missed tackles
in 2022, breaking the site's previous record.) Robinson has a near-impeccable
sense of when to be patient and when to be urgent; his eyes rarely
lie and detect cutback lanes that most running backs never see.
As much of a complete runner as the Doak Walker Award winner is,
he is every bit the same as a receiver. Despite low reception totals
for a player with his talent (19 in 2022 and 60 in his three college
seasons), Texas occasionally lined him out wide. While he may not
be the same kind of weapon in the passing game that Christian McCaffrey
is, he is very confident in his hands and an above-average route-runner
for a running back. He should be a mismatch for the vast majority
of NFL linebackers and/or safeties right away.
Negatives
Ball security was a bit of an issue for Robinson at Texas, as
he fumbled six times on 539 career rushing attempts. The Longhorns'
loss to TCU late last season was the worst he looked all year. Most
of that was a product of Texas' inability to threaten the Horned
Frogs through the air (and thus allowing TCU's linebackers to play
downhill), but some of it was the first bit of repeated indecision
in Robinson's tape. There is a fine line between patience and dancing
too much; Robinson almost always finds himself in the former group,
but he will occasionally dabble in the latter group. While Robinson
should be a quick study in his adjustment to the NFL, it could take
him a bit of time to adjust to what patience means at the college
level and what it means at the pro level. While his speed is actually
on the high end for a back who plays in the 215-220 pound range,
he does not always beat defenders to the edge or show a second gear
to leave defenders in the dust very often. Robinson rarely goes
down without a fight, which could explain why he dealt with back,
elbow, shoulder and neck injuries over his three-year college career.
Bottom Line
There is little question Robinson is going to be a problem for
NFL defenses right away. Today's NFL running back must know when
to be physical, when to be elusive, when to be patient, when to
be urgent, how to contribute in all facets of the passing game
and somehow maintain his stamina and level of play in the fourth
quarter - when everybody else is wearing down - if he hopes to
be a workhorse. Robinson manages to do all of those things with
aplomb.
The Arizona native's willingness to power through contact and
reluctance to give up on runs may be his biggest downfall at this
point. Even though he dishes out punishment and makes defenders
miss regularly, he absorbs his fair share of body blows in doing
so. Durability and ball security may be the biggest concerns for
him early in his career. Because Robinson is so gifted as a receiver,
it would make sense for the team that drafts him to take some
inside runs off his plate each week and replace them with screen,
wheel and arrow routes.
At the end of the day, Robinson is arguably the most complete
running back prospect to enter the draft in at least five years.
He plays the position with a level of calm and foresight that
most runners never reach. Edgerrin James was an incredibly dynamic
back before tearing his ACL in his third season. Robinson may
not be quite as fast as a young James, but he boasts the same
kind of power, contact balance, receiving ability and vision as
the Hall of Famer. As long as Robinson stays relatively healthy
and lands with a team willing to showcase his skills as the Colts
did with James, it would not be overly surprising if the former
also winds up wearing a gold jacket in Canton one day.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
