* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For receivers, a player needs to be a realistic
threat for 70 catches and 1,000 receiving yards at some point
early in their career to be a candidate for a perfect grade. Positional
scarcity at the pro level is also a part of the equation.
Positives
While size at receiver has become less important than it has been
throughout the recent history of football, coaches and GMs still
want it at the position. At 6-3 and 213 pounds, Tillman is one of
the biggest receiver prospects in this class and he uses it to his
advantage - especially on slant routes. The former three-star recruit
also has some of the biggest hands in the class, which is also apparent
on tape given the ease with which he secures passes outside of his
frame. Speaking of his strong hands, Tillman was only charged with
five drops across his five-year college career. (He played very
little before 2021, however, as Tennessee had future pros in Josh Palmer, Velus Jones Jr., Jauan Jennings and Marquez Callaway taking
reps away from him.) Tillman typically defeats press coverage with
relative ease using a lethal combination of enviable arm length
(33") and pure physicality. The Las Vegas native is more of
a deep threat than his 4.54 speed would indicate, as he uses his
stride length and subtle tempo changes to chew up cushion quickly.
From there, his ball skills, athleticism (37-inch vertical) and
body control take over because he understands how to stack his defender
and because cornerbacks so infrequently knocked him off his path
along the way (16 receptions of 25-plus yards over the past two
seasons). Tillman's physicality also shows up as a blocker on receiver
screens, as he often moves his man off his spot with ease.
Negatives
A high-ankle sprain in the third game of 2022 that caused Tillman
to miss four contests and undergo tightrope ankle surgery mostly
ruined his final college season. (He returned for three games and
missed the final two.) Regarding his pre-injury profile, he was
surprisingly unproductive after the catch (averaged 4.1 yards after
contact per reception and recorded only 13 missed tackles forced
over his college career, per Pro Football Focus). Although his 4.54
speed is more than OK for a receiver of his size, his speed is more
of the build-up kind, which means he could struggle at times to
separate in the NFL. Probably the most concerning drawback at this
point, however, may be the lack of urgency and efficiency he shows
at the top of his routes, which might help explain his pedestrian
yard-after-catch numbers. Interestingly, HC Josh Heupel's offense
- not unlike many warp-speed spread offenses these days - did not
move Tillman across the formation at all, as he logged 1,125 of
his 1,127 snaps over his final two seasons on the right side of
the formation.
Bottom Line
In a draft class loaded with "smurfs" at receiver,
Tillman stands out in a major way. In fact, he gives off some
Brandon Marshall and/or Michael Thomas vibes. Look no further
than what he did against the best the SEC had to offer, posting
a 7-152-1 line against Alabama in 2021 and 10-200-1 and 7-68-0
lines against Georgia in 2021 and 2022, respectively. If Tillman
had simply stayed healthy this season, there is a very good chance
he would be in consideration to go inside the top 20-30 picks.
He still might.
The reason Tillman should be considered a high-end NFL prospect
is not simply that he fared well statistically against two of
the sharper defensive minds in college football. It is more because
he did it in the way he will have to do it in the NFL. He managed
to get open despite not having the luxury of getting free releases
via working out of the slot, being sent into motion, lining up
on the same side of the field repeatedly and working closer to
the out-of-bounds marker than any receiver should have to because
Heupel's offense tries to work from sideline to sideline. Furthermore,
NFL corners will not be able to contact him as much down the field
as college corners did. Tillman is unlikely to make near as much
noise vertically at the next level as he did in college, but he
could quickly emerge as a high-volume target in the short and
intermediate passing attack - much like Thomas did in New Orleans.
If Tillman can refine his route-running even just a little bit
this summer, he could be an immediate impact player.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
