High-end NFL Player Comp(s):
Greg Olsen Low-end NFL Player Comp(s):
Jordan Cameron
Best Scheme Fit: Any offense
capable of utilizing him as more of a "move" tight end
and willing to commit to using him as a matchup weapon out of
the slot.
Best Team Fit(s): Packers, Lions, Cowboys, Bengals,
Raiders, Broncos, Chargers
Non-bolded times - Good examples of attribute Bolded times - Average/poor examples of attribute
* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For tight ends, a player needs to be a realistic
threat for 60 catches and 800 receiving yards at some point in
their career to be a candidate for a perfect grade. Positional
scarcity at the pro level is also a part of the equation.
Positives
The first thing that stands out about Kincaid is how fluid and
athletic he is for a player of his size. His fluidity and athleticism
repeatedly show up on tape, perhaps most often when he is in contested-catch
and high-point situations. The Las Vegas native lined up in the
slot 55 percent of the time in 2022 and is very much at home doing
so, running routes more crisply and intelligently than many college
receivers. He appears to be in complete control of his movement
on every snap but is still dynamic enough to make the first man
miss and turn a short gain into a big one. (He was one of only three
FBS tight ends with 16-plus forced missed tackles in 2022.) While
Kincaid did not perform at the NFL Combine or his pro day due to
a back injury he suffered late last season, he plays at the high
4.5, low-4.6 level and should be plenty fast enough to threaten
the seam in the NFL - especially when the trust he has in his ball
skills is taken into account. Kincaid is also about as sure-handed
as they come; two drops on 138 targets over two years at Utah (35-to-4
touchdown-to-drop ratio over his college career). The first-team
All-Pac 12 performer is highly unlikely to become a dominant run-blocker
and will likely struggle to hold up as an inline blocker at times
early in his NFL career, but he is also unlikely to be used that
way very often. He is willing to block and functional enough to
do so in space against second- and third-level defenders.
Negatives
Perhaps the biggest knock on Kincaid is that he lacks the necessary
size - he was listed at 240 pounds in 2022 - to be anything more
than a receiving tight end. (Expect him to be up to 250 by training
camp.) Along with some minor flaws with his blocking fundamentals
and mechanics, the University of San Diego transfer has some work
to do to become a complete tight end. Kincaid got away with some
telegraphing of his routes in college because he was either bigger
than most of the safeties or faster than most of the linebackers
guarding him. While he plays the position that he can probably get
away with the occasional extra step on a route, he will need to
do a better job of disguising his intentions to beat the better
NFL linebackers/safeties. Kincaid is also a bit on the older side
for a prospect (turns 24 in October). It is also worth noting he
missed time in 2022 because of multiple injuries, including a shoulder
(October 2022) and thoracic injury (November 2022), which ultimately
sidelined him for the Senior Bowl, NFL Combine and the Utes' pro
day.
Bottom Line
Kincaid is not without flaws, but all of the ones mentioned above
can be corrected - or at least improved - with a full-time commitment
to the sport. While his blocking fundamentals and mechanics could
be an issue for some teams in the first year or two, the majority
of teams who have a first-round grade on him have almost assuredly
factored that into their decision-making process. They likely
value him as highly as they do for the weapon he is in the passing
game. As someone who did not start playing football until his
senior year of high school and was not expecting to play college
sports when he graduated, there is still a ton of theoretical
room for growth in his game.
There will always be a place in the NFL for a tight end with
Kincaid's receiving ability because more coaches than ever understand
the value of being able to win inside the hashes. If scoring at
least eight touchdowns in each of his four full college seasons
wasn't convincing enough, Kincaid projects as the rare tight end
prospect who could not only be his next team's top red zone threat
but also their primary option in between the 20s.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
