* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For quarterbacks, a player needs to be a
realistic threat for 4,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards
to be a candidate for a perfect grade. Positional scarcity at
the pro level is also a part of the equation.
Positives
The 2022 SEC Offensive Player of the Year has most - if not all
- of the necessary physical tools to be a good NFL quarterback.
A 6-3, 217-pound frame is about all evaluators can ask for from
a college quarterback prospect. His arm strength is somewhere between
good and very good, which dovetails nicely into the 1,175 yards
he accumulated on deep passes last season - the ninth-highest total
in the country - although some of the credit for that also goes
to HC Josh Heupel's offensive philosophy of going deep. While his
accuracy on deep throws is not elite, he frequently displayed more
touch on those pass attempts than the average college quarterback.
Hooker is not a great athlete by any means, but he is a willing
and courageous runner who amassed 2,079 yards and 25 touchdowns
on the ground over his career. His ability to avoid the big mistake
as a passer may be his best trait, as he posted an 80:12 TD-to-INT
ratio while playing at two different schools (58:5 in two years
at Tennessee). He also registered a wildly impressive 1.1-percent
turnover-worthy play rate in 2022, which ranked third in the country
(per Pro Football Focus). Hooker also displays sound footwork/mechanics
in the pocket and makes quick (and usually smart) decisions. When
he was given a good pocket, he proved to be a confident rhythm passer
capable of accepting the check-down, offering hope that he can make
the transition from Heupel's offense to a more traditional NFL attack.
Negatives
Hooker suffered a torn ACL against South Carolina on Nov. 19,
which is the most pressing concern evaluators will have for him.
Will next season be a wash? The next biggest issue is he is already
25 years old. Focusing more on his actual play, Heupel's offense
is/was heavily relatively reliant on scripted, one-read (or well-defined)
plays and RPOs. This means evaluators have little visual evidence
Hooker can consistently get through a progression. The possibility
exists he is reading two receivers on one side very quickly and
was instructed to run if they were not open. Another possibility
is he bailed out if his first option did not free himself quickly.
(Did Heupel coach him to leave the pocket after his first two reads
- usually on the same side of the field - did not get open or is
Hooker that limited? Only those who interview Hooker this spring
may get an answer.) Heupel's offense also makes it difficult to
know for sure if his quarterback has any real kind of eye or pocket
discipline. Despite his gaudy 69.6-percent completion rate in 2022,
Hooker's accuracy - especially in the short and intermediate areas
- is inconsistent at best. Former NFL head coach Mike Martz has
speculated that some of Hooker's issues may have been the product
of setting up 5-6 yards behind the line of scrimmage instead of
the traditional seven yards. For a player who tallied a meager 12
interceptions in 944 career pass attempts, Hooker also forced passes
into tight coverage too often. Worse yet, he straddled the line
between showing courage and recklessness as a runner too often.
Bottom Line
The problem with Hooker is that his statistics and physical tools
mask what he appears to be right now: an older prospect who is
still very much a developmental quarterback. Can he get to the
point where he is consistently finding his second option? Sure.
Almost every successful NFL quarterback has to get there at some
point. Unfortunately, that takes time. It may be hard for Hooker
to "develop" in 2023 as he finishes his ACL recovery.
If that ends up being the case, he will essentially be a 26-year-old
rookie next season who may have missed some or all of his first
offseason as a pro.
Buying into Hooker is buying into his year-to-year improvement
and the way he has been able to limit his mistakes. The reality
of the situation is that while both of those things are true,
Heupel's offense likely delayed Hooker's development as a potential
pro quarterback by two years, as the NFL does not lean nearly
as heavily on fly, slant and screen routes or spreading defenses
from sideline to sideline as the Volunteers do. His physical tools
and intelligence will give him a chance to succeed eventually,
but he has only shown he can do about 20-30 percent of what he
will be asked to do at the next level - and even that has been
a mixed bag. Given the injury, age and developmental concerns,
Hooker profiles much more as a high-end backup who needs to be
treated as a project. His next team should consider itself lucky
if he emerges as a viable starter by 2025.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
