High-end NFL Player Comp(s):
Emmanuel Sanders Low-end NFL Player Comp(s):
A smaller Tyler Boyd
Best Scheme Fit: Primary slot
option right away with the potential to be a solid complementary
receiver in a timing-based, pass-heavy offense down the road.
Best Team Fit(s): Packers, Vikings, Falcons,
Titans, Colts, Seahawks, Jets, Dolphins
Non-bolded times - Good examples of attribute Bolded times - Average/poor examples of attribute
* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For receivers, a player needs to be a realistic
threat for 70 catches and 1,000 receiving yards at some point
early in their career to be a candidate for a perfect grade. Positional
scarcity at the pro level is also a part of the equation.
Positives
While their games are very different as a whole, some of Addison's
footwork is reminiscent of Justin Jefferson's. The 2021 Biletnikoff
winner understands the value of changing up his releases and pacing
of his routes, which is a large part - along with his suddenness
- of how he creates the separation that he does. As is typically
the case for a refined route-runner, Addison possesses a high level
of spatial awareness and should be a consistent zone-beater in the
NFL. Part of his secret sauce involves what is usually a seamless
transition at the top of his stem, which partially helps to explain
why he is as productive after the catch as he is. For a receiver
who is not overly physical (173 pounds) and does most of his work
near the line of scrimmage, Addison is very good after the catch
(his seven yards after the catch per reception ranked 18th in the
country last season for receivers with at least 75 targets, per
Pro Football Focus). Especially for a wideout with an average depth
of target of 10.7, this bodes well for his ability to be a productive
high-volume target at the next level. He cleaned up his drops in
a big way in 2022, recording only two on 79 targets (3.3 percent
drop rate) after posting 21 over his first two seasons at Pitt (9.9
in 2021 and 14.3 in 2020).
Negatives
The first potential concern that jumps out about Addison is his
173-pound frame. His size does not necessarily disqualify him as
a top prospect - DeVonta Smith and Marquise Brown are recent examples
that a receiver doesn't need to check at 180-plus - but he may not
have one elite trait that makes up for it either. In other words,
he lacks Smith's suddenness and Brown's raw speed. Where his lack
of play strength shows up the most is when he faces physical cornerbacks;
he can get held up at the line and pushed to the sideline if the
corner can hang with him. Another byproduct of his lack of size
may be that he occasionally spends too much time and/or takes too
many steps in his release off the line - likely because he knows
he probably will not win the physical battle. While he flashes top-notch
body control, there are very few true contested catches on his tape
as well. For these reasons and others, it is hard to believe he
will ever be a dominant red-zone player in the NFL. Addison can
overcome some of his shortcomings to be a good YAC receiver, but
his relatively pedestrian timed speed (4.49) - especially for a
173-pound receiver - shows up when he is trying to create separation
on deep throws. From the it-may-be-something, it-may-be-nothing
department: Addison loses his feet and falls on the ground more
than most receiver prospects, which could be a sign his mind moves
a bit faster than his body in some situations.
Bottom Line
There is a distinct possibility that Addison's draft stock took
a hit last season at USC. His production fell off drastically
from his breakout 2021 campaign, but some of that was a product
of missing three games with a leg injury and another (the Cotton
Bowl loss to Tulane) with an ankle injury. However, another part
of it was Trojans HC Lincoln Riley not using him very often in
the intermediate (10-19 yards) and deep (20-plus) quadrants in
the passing game. (Of Addison's 79 targets in 2022, only 34 were
more than 10 yards - 17 each in the intermediate and deep parts
of the field. In 2021, he had 40 deep targets alone and 70 of
at least 10 yards.) In 2021, he looked very much like a future
NFL alpha receiver. In 2022, it appeared as though Riley had to
scheme him up (22 of his 59 catches came on screens).
Addison's lack of strength is going to be a problem for him in
the NFL, but his play-callers at the next level will have a large
hand in determining how much of a problem it will be. He will
need to be used in the slot most of the time - at least early
in his career - to minimize his lack of physicality. If his next
team hopes they are getting a player that excels in contested-catch
or high-point situations like Larry Fitzgerald, they will be disappointed.
However, Addison is quick enough and savvy enough to make a very
decent living if he is afforded clean releases and given quick-hitting
opportunities to produce after the catch. It is hard to see him
emerging as an alpha anytime soon, but he is one of those high-floor
prospects that should adjust to the NFL quickly and produce at
a reasonably high level for many years.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
