* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For running backs, a player needs to be a
three-down option as well as a realistic threat for 1,000 rushing
yards and 500 receiving yards to be a candidate for a perfect
grade. Positional scarcity at the pro level is also a part of
the equation.
Positives
Miller runs exceptionally well behind his pads, consistently churning
out more yards than he should get between the tackles. His ability
to stay on his feet is almost cat-like at times. Arm tackle attempts
rarely affect him. Miller usually creates the contact and rarely
seems to absorb it. The former three-star recruit's leg drive and
leg strength are remarkable. It is one of the reasons that when
he is not trampling defenders, he is often shedding them. (It helps
explain how he forced a missed tackle on 70 of his 224 rush attempts
last season and finished with 816 yards after contact, per Pro Football
Focus.) Miller runs like Frank Gore at times, consistently showing
the ability to accelerate upfield despite working through narrow
lanes. He accomplishes this largely because he is rarely out of
control, which allows him to avoid doing too much with a cut or
a juke and continue along his path. The Horned Frogs did not need
Miller to do much in the passing game (16 catches in 2022), but
there is enough evidence of him handling throws away from his frame
to believe he is more than capable as a receiver. His spatial awareness
- while present as a runner - really seemed to jump out on screen
and check-down plays, resulting in a handful of long third-down
conversions.
Negatives
On one hand, most of his work in college came in the most congested
areas of the field, which should speak volumes about how overcame
that to be so productive in 2022. On the other hand, so many of
his runs were between the tackles that evaluators have limited access
to him running concepts such as outside zone. (TCU gave him more
opportunities to get on the perimeter as the season progressed,
however.) Miller occasionally seems to enjoy winning the physical
battle so much that he turns down opportunities for an easier path,
which could set him up for injury issues down the road. On several
occasions, it appears as though he is so used to running inside
that he prepares for contact before clearing the offensive line,
leading to him running into his blockers. For as powerful as he
is, there were also too many times when he failed to convert near
the goal line. Miller's instincts, patience and vision seem to run
hot-and-cold, especially on any runs outside the tackles. While
not exactly a one-gear runner, the first-team All-Big 12 selection
rarely displayed the ability to pull away from defenders and gets
caught from behind too often. He also fumbled six times on 361 career
carries.
Bottom Line
Miller should not be a tough evaluation, but he is. TCU's offense
did not ask him to do much more than run up the A-gap for the
first half of the 2022 season. He handled it well though, to say
the least. He may possess the best contact balance of any running
back in this draft class, which should serve him well at the next
level. He also works well in space, which makes it somewhat confounding
that the Horned Frogs did not give him more work in the screen
game or as a check-down option.
While he does not seek contact as much as Dameon Pierce did in
college, Miller runs a lot like the Florida alum and projects
similarly to the NFL. At worst, he lands with a play-caller who
lacks creativity (and/or relies simply on what he saw Miller do
in college) and uses him in the same way Damien Harris was utilized
most of his time in New England. Miller's ability to run off-tackle
or on the perimeter is not a strength or a weakness at this point;
it is more of an unknown. His lack of comfort doing it at TCU
could have easily been a product of him not doing it very much.
His spatial awareness suggests that could be the case. While it
would not be surprising if he ends up being a three-down option
at some point early in his career, the likelihood is that he will
spend much of his rookie season serving as an early-down thumper
and goal-line back. There is upside for more, however. He is a
strong candidate to rival the rookie-year success Pierce enjoyed
if he can find the same kind of situation Pierce fell into last
season.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
