High-end NFL Player Comp(s):
Martavis Bryant Low-end NFL Player Comp(s):
Marquez Callaway
Best Scheme Fit: Any offense
willing to use him regularly on high-probability run-after-catch
routes, such as screens and hooks. He is built like an X receiver,
but he may have to settle for a Z role unless/until he runs more
disciplined routes.
Best Team Fit(s): Giants, Texans, Titans, Chiefs,
Cardinals, Rams
Non-bolded times - Good examples of attribute Bolded times - Average/poor examples of attribute
* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For receivers, a player needs to be a realistic
threat for 70 catches and 1,000 receiving yards at some point
early in their career to be a candidate for a perfect grade. Positional
scarcity at the pro level is also a part of the equation.
Positives
The late Al Davis loved to draft height-weight-speed specimens,
especially at receiver. Johnston would have almost certainly been
one of Davis' guys. Johnston's size (6-3, 208) is almost ideal for
a receiver, but it does not begin to tell the story of how good
he is after the catch. Not only can he power through tackles, but
he also has enough short-area quickness to make the first defender
whiff in open space (19 missed tackles forced in 2022, per Pro Football
Focus). While he did not run at the NFL Combine, the two-time first-team
All-Big 12 performer is a long strider who chews up a cornerback's
cushion quickly; he looked faster than his timed speed (4.51) when
he was asked to go deep. In short, Johnston can be impactful at
all three levels. Despite never scoring more than six touchdowns
in a season in college, he has the potential to be a premier red
zone threat given the combination of his 6-3 frame, 40.5-inch vertical
and great timing/ball-tracking skills. The former four-star recruit
seems to have a decent feel for and against zone coverage, consistently
finding a clear window for his quarterback. While Johnston's overall
production was a bit lacking - at least for a potential first-round
NFL draft choice at his position - he balled out in just about every
close game TCU had in 2022.
Negatives
There are not many drawbacks to having a big frame as a receiver,
but one of them is that it gives cornerbacks more of a target to
hit when they want to be physical at the line of scrimmage. Not
only does Johnston struggle with this from time to time and run
too upright, but he also occasionally does not show much intensity
coming out of the blocks on shorter routes or on patterns where
he does not expect to get the ball. There were also several instances
in which he could have made a play on a short throw but failed to
use his body to wall off the defender. Johnston's eight contested
catches in 2022 are low for a player of his size, which also speaks
to his occasional lack of intensity. While drops do not mean a receiver
has bad hands, eight is also a high number for drops on 60 catches
and 97 targets. Eye discipline appears to be more of a problem than
his actual ability to catch, however. For as dynamic as he is after
the catch, he often looks stiff when he is trying to create leverage
or deception in his routes. This is relatively common for a taller
receiver, but he seems to struggle with it more than most. As long
as this continues to be the case, it will reduce his opportunities
to be a featured receiver since he will not be able to play much
in the slot.
Bottom Line
How much faith do NFL head coaches have in their wide receiver
coach? That may be what ultimately decides Johnston's professional
fate. He has the physical traits and will be viewed as an exciting
piece of clay to mold. He is also a big play waiting to happen,
but how much can his new position coach get "that dawg"
out of him on every play and preach to him the importance of the
finer details of the position? While it may be a bit unfair to
him (small sample size and overmatched offensive line), Johnston
did virtually nothing (one catch for three yards) in the Horned
Frogs' 65-7 loss in the national championship game against the
one team (Georgia) that most resembles what he will see in the
NFL.
The flashes are there, however. Whether it is pure coincidence
or more focus on his end, the same short-area quickness that appears
when Johnston is in the open field and trying to dodge a tackle
is not the same that shows up on a slant or another in-breaking
route. He flashes contested-catch ability and body control. A
position coach that can shore up those weaknesses and inconsistencies
may have a future alpha receiver on their hands. An average receivers
coach may be stuck with an athletic field-stretcher in the Martavis Bryant mold that busts more than he booms. His run-after-catch
ability makes him a better bet to succeed than Bryant or even
someone like Denzel Mims, but the jury is very much out on his
chances to make an immediate impact until the identity of his
new position coach is revealed.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
