Eleven years ago, I introduced "The Dirty Dozen" and "The
Delicious Dozen" around Thanksgiving time. The idea then -
as it is today - was to identify negative and positive receiver
matchups, respectively, as a way to prepare owners for the upcoming
stretch of fantasy games that usually determine fantasy championships.
Receiver-cornerback matchups are among the most critical ones
in the real game, yet very few fantasy analysts spend any time
breaking them down - and few do it in much detail. Until this
becomes a more common practice, there will be thousands of fantasy
managers who will avoid matchups they shouldn't and vice versa.
Even in an era where teams play zone defense more than 70 percent
of the time, it does not mean we cannot isolate the matchups that
could help or hinder our fantasy receivers the most.
The point is the fantasy industry as a whole tends to rely on
name recognition when it comes to avoiding a potential matchup
rather than doing some research to find out which defenders are
playing well consistently. They also tend to stick with their
opinions about struggling corners for far too long when they finally
break through and begin playing well. The truth is defensive players
ebb and flow in much the same way offensive players do.
Note: The cutoff for this piece was 330
coverage snaps. At roughly 30 coverage snaps per game, we should
be able to eliminate any players who are not "full-timers."
Below each write-up is the remaining schedule and the projected
matchups each corner should see in coverage in that week. Please
keep in mind that receivers move across the formation a lot, while
most defensive coordinators seem to favor keeping their corners
on one side of the formation, so this is far from an exact science.
In cases in which a receiver there isn't a discernible difference
in how often a receiver plays on one side of the field or the
other (which is quite common), the most likely player to see primary
coverage from the cornerback below will be listed first. Receivers
expected to see less of him will be listed second or third.
Again this season, I have included the percentage of snaps
that each receiver lines up in the area that the cornerback usually
defends. In other words, if a cornerback plays primarily lines
up on the right side of the defense, the number to the side of
the receiver indicates how often he lines up on the left side
of the offense.
All coverage data courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
Note: Jalen Pitre was omitted due to a recent
pectoral injury that is expected to sideline him for multiple weeks.
* Has logged 472 of his 615 cornerback snaps on the left side.
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. To be fair to Gardner, the former
No. 4 overall pick in the 2022 draft has dealt with injuries for
the first time in his pro career. That has likely affected his
play for multiple weeks. It would seem to be the only explanation
as to how he could go from perhaps the best young cornerback in
the game to a player opponents are not afraid to target. Gardner
is on the verge of allowing a career-high yardage total (354 through
11 games; career high is 361). The Jets' last two opponents were
successful on all six pass attempts in his coverage. (The Titans
were very successful against him in Week 2, as Calvin Ridley caught
all three of his targets in Gardner's coverage for 71 yards and
a touchdown). All told, receivers are catching 62.9 percent of
their targets against Gardner and averaging 16.1 yards per reception.
Such numbers would have been unthinkable in 2022 (45.2; 10.9)
and 2023 (56.9; 8.7). Gardner continues to be stingy giving up
touchdown catches, however, as he has surrendered one in each
of his first three NFL seasons. Regardless of what the analytics
say right now, Gardner is not a player who fantasy managers want
to see on the schedule - as has been the case for 2 1/2 seasons.
What has changed this year (so far) is that a matchup against
him - or the Jets' secondary, for that matter - does not have
to be avoided.
Week 13: DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett (43-43) Week 14: Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle (40-30) Week 15: Brian Thomas Jr. (65) Week 16: Puka Nacua/Demarcus Robinson (50-28) Week 17: Keon Coleman/Amari Cooper (51-39)
* Has played 384 of his 555 cornerback snaps in the slot.
Moore has the unusual distinction of grading out as the seventh-best
corner according to PFF's coverage grade and the 11th-easiest
matchup according to passer rating, which speaks to the inexact
science of marrying film grades and stats. The primary reason
he appears on this list is that he is well on his way to giving
up a career high in receiving touchdowns (six in 2021). Three
of the five touchdowns he has surrendered so far came in the first
three games of the season - a start that makes it nearly impossible
to rebound from almost regardless of how he performs thereafter.
While the touchdowns have mostly dried up since Week 3, it has
been far too easy for slot receivers to catch the ball in his
coverage. Since Week 7, receivers have caught 23 of the 29 passes
thrown to them in Moore's coverage. While Moore is doing a great
job of minimizing the damage (his current 7.9 yards allowed per
reception would be a career-best mark), a 79.3 percent catch rate
allowed is not going to discourage quarterbacks from picking on
him. Moore is set to turn 31 years of age on New Year's Day, so
it is safe to say the version of him we are seeing now is probably
the best we are going to get moving forward. A matchup against
Moore may not yield huge yardage numbers for opposing slots, but
it should come as no surprise if some of the bigger slot receivers
left on the schedule (namely 6-4 Devaughn Vele) have a big day
against the 5-9 Moore.
* Has played 684 of his 725 cornerback snaps on the right side.
Stephens was relentlessly targeted last season in part because
offenses had to get the ball out quickly (or at least they thought
they did thanks to how often then-DC Mike Macdonald used simulated
pressure) and in part because they did not want to throw at Marlon
Humphrey very often. The 26-year-old held up so well in 2023 that
he appeared in last year's
Dirty Dozen. It has been a much different story in 2024. Stephens
could join Cameron Sutton (2023, Lions) as the only cornerback
to surrender over 1,000 yards in his coverage over the last four
seasons if has a bad game or two over the team's final five contests.
While the primary reason he appears on this list is that he has
surrendered three touchdown catches versus no interceptions, receivers
are posting a higher catch rate (67.6 percent in 2024 versus 63.6
in 2023) and averaging more yards per catch (13.5 versus 10.9).
Since Week 4, wideouts have caught 35 of the 47 passes (74.5 percent)
thrown in Stephens' direction. While some of that production is
a product of how often Baltimore is playing in positive game script,
teammate (and fellow perimeter corner) Nate Wiggins is allowing
a catch on only 48.9 percent of the throws in his direction. The
latter also holds a 6-4 edge in pass breakups and has forced one
less incompletion (9-8) despite playing 233 fewer coverage snaps.
Although the Ravens have made strides against the pass over the
last two weeks, it appears Stephens has lost a bit of confidence,
which makes him someone to target for fantasy purposes for the
foreseeable future.
Week 13: A.J. Brown/DeVonta Smith (36-25) Week 14: bye Week 15: Darius Slayton/Malik Nabers (43-41) Week 16: George Pickens/Mike Williams (47-33) Week 17: Nico Collins/Tank Dell (47-30)
* Has logged 261 snaps on the left side and 221 snaps in the
slot.
Nixon opened the season as Green Bay's primary slot corner but
has played the overwhelming majority of his snaps since Week 5
on the left side of the defense. Considering how poorly things
went for him over the first four games (14 catches allowed on
21 targets for 133 yards and two TDs), it makes sense why the
Packers moved him out of the slot. Jacksonville (Week 8) and Detroit
(Week 9) each got him for a touchdown, but Nixon has not been
picked on all that much over the last six contests (not including
the Week 13 game). He has not been targeted more than three times
in five of those games, nor has he surrendered more than 39 receiving
yards during that stretch. His catch rate allowed is much more
tenable 65.9 percent for the season, which is a huge improvement
over the 79.3 (2022) and 77.9 (2023) percent marks he surrendered
as Green Bay's primary slot corner over the last two years. The
real test for Nixon will be if/when Jaire Alexander, who has missed
the last two games with a knee injury, can stay on the field consistently.
Until then, it appears offenses will be content testing 2023 seventh-round
draft choice Carrington Valentine instead. Although it feels like
Nixon's recent success is more circumstantial than anything else,
he appears to be playing well enough on the perimeter to be considered
a below-average matchup for receivers who line up primarily on
the right side of the offensive formation.
Week 14: Tim Patrick/Jameson Williams (40-32) Week 15: DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett (43-43) Week 16: Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Chris Olave? (43-30) Week 17: Jordan Addison/Justin Jefferson (36-34)
* Has logged 247 of his 637 cornerback snaps on the left side
and 370 on the right side.
Although I will treat St-Juste as if he is still a full-time
starter, it should be noted he has lost snaps to Michael Davis
over the last two games. With that said, it is not hard to understand
why HC Dan Quinn and DC Joe Whitt Jr. are relying less on St-Juste.
The fourth-year corner got off to a rough start by giving up three
touchdowns over the first three games of the season. While the
TDs have slowed down dramatically since (one allowed in his last
nine outings), the pass breakups (of which he had seven through
six games) have completely dried up (none in his last six). Perhaps
the most startling stat attached to St-Juste is that he has allowed
a passer rating of at least 110.4 in six games and 103.0 in seven.
Some of that is a product of giving up a catch on 22 of 29 targets
(75.9 percent) over the last seven weeks. Making matters worse,
he has permitted at least 40 yards receiving in nine of 12 games,
50 yards receiving in seven of them and over 60 yards receiving
in five of them. Fortunately for the Commanders, the eventual
debut of Marshon Lattimore should correct this issue. Until then,
fantasy managers should feel confident targeting St-Juste and
Davis with confidence.
Week 13: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (49-35 left-right)/Calvin Ridley
(36-48) Week 14: bye Week 15: Marquez Valdes-Scantling (30-43)/Chris Olave? (42-30) Week 16: A.J. Brown (36-41)/DeVonta Smith (25-22) Week 17: Darnell Mooney (39-28)/Drake London (24-41)
7. Jack Jones,
Raiders (Passer Rating Against: 115.3)
* Has logged 534 of his 587 cornerback snaps on the left side.
Jones was something of a revelation for Las Vegas after the Patriots
waived him in mid-November last season, allowing no touchdowns
and a 54.5 percent catch rate on passes thrown in his coverage
while recording two interceptions over seven games. It has been
a much different story in 2024, as quarterbacks are completing
67.3 percent of their throws in his coverage. He has also surrendered
five touchdowns on 399 coverage snaps this season after yielding
two on 583 coverage snaps over his first two years as a part-timer.
The Broncos - in particular - tormented Jones in their two meetings
this season, targeting the Arizona State product 14 times (10
catches, 104 yards and two touchdowns). He also had the misfortune
of getting picked on in Week 3 against the Panthers (two TDs).
Jones' short history in the NFL suggests he will bounce back at
some point and that his performance in 2024 is more about the
Raiders in general than anything else. The good news for fantasy
managers is Las Vegas has little choice but to let him play through
his struggles, so he is a matchup to target over the final weeks
of the fantasy season.
Week 13: Xavier Worthy/DeAndre Hopkins (37-31) Week 14: Jalen McMillan/Mike Evans (48-23) Week 15: Drake London/Darnell Mooney (41-28) Week 16: Brian Thomas Jr. (65) Week 17: Marquez Valdes-Scantling/ Chris Olave? (43-30)
* Has logged 335 of his 569 cornerback snaps in the slot, although
he has lined up almost exclusively on the perimeter since the
Marshon Lattimore trade.
New Orleans had little choice but to try Taylor on the perimeter
once Lattimore was traded and Paulson Adebo (leg) was lost for
the season. To say it has gone poorly would be an understatement.
Over the last three games alone, Taylor has been targeted 25 times
and permitted 307 yards and a touchdown on 17 catches. He was
responsible for giving up Jerry Jeudy's 89-yard touchdown in Week
11 but also played a key role in Darnell Mooney's big Week 10.
Not only has he allowed a league-high 710 yards receiving, but
the 370 yards he has given up after the catch is also 88 more
yards than any other player has yielded. His 75 percent catch
rate allowed is the third-highest mark of any corner with the
330 coverage snaps needed to make this list. It is rare to see
any cornerback struggle to this degree, but the great news for
fantasy managers is that the Saints do not have any better options
at the moment. Especially with second-round rookie Kool-Aid McKinstry
playing reasonably well so far, Taylor could be targeted relentlessly
for the rest of the season.
Week 13: Demarcus Robinson (43-28 left-right)/Puka Nacua (31-50) Week 14: Darius Slayton (43-39)/Malik Nabers (41-43) Week 15: Terry McLaurin (74-12)/Noah Brown (11-74) Week 16: Christian Watson (45-35)/Romeo Doubs (43-43) Week 17: Tre Tucker (48-34)/Jakobi Meyers (29-43)
5. Martin
Emerson, Browns (Passer Rating Against: 116.8)
* Has logged 455 of his 522 cornerback snaps on the right side.
After being one of the most difficult under-the-radar matchups
for most of his first two NFL seasons, Emerson essentially stunk
up the joint over the first nine weeks. Quarterbacks posted a
passer rating of at least 107.3 six times when throwing in his
coverage over that time. He also gave up a touchdown in four of
Cleveland's first six games. (Those four TDs allowed on 344 coverage
snaps is one less than he surrendered on 1,066 coverage snaps
in his first two seasons.) Perhaps the best metric to highlight
Emerson's struggles is his lack of pass breakups. In each of the
first two seasons, he had nine. This year, he has two. However,
the Week 10 bye may have come at the right time for him, as PFF
has given him his highest coverage grades in the two games since.
Emerson's history tells us that he will rediscover his form at
some point, so it is more likely than not he is doing that as
we speak. While Cleveland may not be the difficult matchup it
was for receivers in 2023, Emerson is much more likely to be part
of the solution than a contributor to the weak defense the Browns
fielded over the first half of the season.
Week 13: Courtland Sutton/Troy Franklin (50-32) Week 14: George Pickens/Mike Williams (47-33) Week 15: DeAndre Hopkins/Xavier Worthy (44-28) Week 16: Tee Higgins/Ja'Marr Chase (65-7) Week 17: Jaylen Waddle/Tyreek Hill (45-25)
* Has logged 581 of his 590 cornerback snaps on the perimeter
(257 on the left side and 324 on the right).
Much like Jack Jones earlier, Douglas is another late 2023 addition
who has struggled in 2024. The metric that stands out the most
is a 75.6 percent catch rate allowed, which is the highest for
any cornerback with at least 330 coverage snaps this season. Things
have been particularly bad for him over the last three weeks -
a stretch in which he has given up 15 catches on 17 targets for
158 yards and a touchdown. Earlier in the season, he surrendered
a perfect passer rating on six targets in his coverage against
Houston in Week 5 (five catches for 87 yards and a score) - most
of which came on the 67-yard touchdown catch by Nico Collins that
led to the receiver going on IR. Part of the reason he is being
picked on so much is that offenses have learned to shy away from
fellow perimeter Christian Benford, who has operated in a quasi-shadow
role when the opponent has dictated it. While his recent history
would suggest he is in a bit of a slump, it is troubling Douglas
has yet to record an interception after posting at least four
in four of the previous five seasons. He also only has three pass
breakups on 409 coverage snaps this year after finishing with
nine on 617 coverage snaps in 2023. As such, he should be considered
a matchup to target for fantasy purposes against opponents with
a clear alpha who will usually draw Benford's coverage.
Week 13: Deebo Samuel (37-31 left-right)/Jauan
Jennings (26-30) Week 14: Demarcus Robinson (43-28)/Puka Nacua
(31-50) Week 15: Jameson Williams (34-32)/Tim Patrick
(37-40) Week 16: Kendrick Bourne (41-39)/Kayshon Boutte
(44-46) Week 17: Garrett Wilson (43-27)/Davante Adams
(29-36)
3. Ronald Darby,
Jaguars (Passer Rating Against: 134.3)
* Has logged 510 of his 526 cornerback snaps on the left side
(the other 16 have come in the slot).
While defenses typically still believe in leaving their corners
on one side of the field, it is very rare to see a team have one
player log all of his perimeter snaps on the same side. Not only
is it a bit lazy on the defensive coordinator's part, but it makes
a defense predictable because an offensive coordinator can feel
confident he will get the matchup he wants whenever he wants it.
This not only helps to explain why receivers are catching 73.7
percent of their targets in Darby's coverage but also why his
current passer rating against is almost 20 points higher than
his previous career high. He has surrendered at least 100 receiving
yards in a game three times this season, which is an exorbitant
number for a cornerback who gave up a total of 353 yards in 16
games with the Ravens last season. He has given up five touchdown
catches on 370 coverage snaps in 2024 after permitting seven TDs
on 1,620 coverage snaps over the previous four seasons combined.
In short, fantasy managers should feel confident about starting
whichever receiver lines up the most on the right side of the
offensive formation each week.
* Has played 479 of his 585 cornerback snaps on the right side.
Taylor-Britt played well enough over his first two seasons to
make Cincinnati believe he was ready to fill Chidobe Awuzie's
shoes as the team's unquestioned top corner entering 2024. It
is fair to say he might have to fight for a starting job in 2025
- assuming he is even still with the team at that point - given
how poorly he has played so far. Quarterbacks have posted a perfect
passer rating throwing in Taylor-Britt's coverage four times this
season, including each of the last two games. Speaking of those
last two outings, the 2022 second-round pick has been beaten like
a drum to the tune of nine catches on 10 targets for 173 yards
and FIVE touchdowns. While the Bengals mercifully benched him
after 29 snaps in Week 11, it is not as if they have anyone capable
of playing at his level when he is on his game (journeyman Marco
Wilson and 2023 seventh-round pick DJ Ivey are the team's top
reserves at cornerback). Taylor-Britt proved he could be a very
good cornerback in the league over his first two seasons, but
recent evidence would suggest he is the easiest target in the
league for offenses right now. This means the bulk of receivers
that usually line up on the left side of the offensive formation
should be started with confidence in fantasy until further notice.
Week 13: George Pickens/Mike Williams (47-33) Week 14: Jalen Tolbert/Brandin Cooks (39-NA) Week 15: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine/Calvin Ridley (49-36) Week 16: Cedric Tillman (65) Week 17: Courtland Sutton/Troy Franklin (50-32)
* Has logged 577 of his 601 cornerback snaps on the perimeter
(249 on the left side and 328 on the right).
Banks was drafted in the first round in 2023 with an eye on him
becoming the Giants' version of Marlon Humphrey in then-DC Wink
Martindale's aggressive defense. After going through the usual
rollercoaster ride cornerbacks typically experience as rookies,
Banks has nosedived in Year 2 under first-year DC Shane Bowen.
The six touchdowns he has allowed in his coverage ranks as the
second-highest mark for any corner in the league (Cam Taylor-Britt;
nine), while his 71.9 percent catch rate and 13.5 yards per reception
allowed are both top-10 marks among corners with at least 330
coverage snaps. While he has had his moments - he played particularly
well in the Giants' Week 5 upset of the Seahawks - he has also
given up a catch on every throw in his coverage in four games
this season. His other big problem is that rookie Dru Phillips
and Cor'Dale Flott have played well enough recently to discourage
opponents from targeting them more often. While his recent struggles
have not been as ridiculously bad as Taylor-Britt's, Banks is
unlikely to improve dramatically when he is often asked to line
up opposite the other team's best receiver.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
