Best Scheme Fit: An offense
focused on a quick-hitting short passing attack that is also willing
to incorporate a steady diet of RPO (run-pass option) plays.
Best Team Fit(s): Vikings, Broncos, Commanders,
Giants, Raiders, Patriots
Non-bolded times - Good examples of attribute Bolded times - Average/poor examples of attribute
* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For quarterbacks, a player needs to be a
realistic threat for 4,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards
to be a candidate for a perfect grade. Positional scarcity at
the pro level is also a part of the equation.
Positives
Makes his living in the middle of the field but also makes
throws from the opposite hash look easy.
Although he gets help from the scheme, many of his throws
seem to leave his hand in less than two seconds.
Consistently gets a great read of the defense and identifies
mismatches pre-snap, which leads to him not needing to abandon
his first read very often.
Exceptional ball placement on short and intermediate throws,
leading to consistent YAC production.
Very comfortable throwing on the move; excels on the half-roll
throw on an out route.
FBS-record 61 career starts and the NCAA single-season record-holder
for completion percentage (77.5).
Negatives
On the rare occasion his primary read is taken away, he can
get a bit fidgety waiting for another pass-catcher to separate.
Anticipates well as a whole, but he is still more of a "see-it-and-throw-it"
passer than an anticipatory one at this point.
Footwork is inconsistent; sometimes he will throw off his
back foot when he has an opportunity to step into his throws.
Other times, his "busy" lower half will force him
to improvise needlessly.
Only one FBS quarterback attempted more passes behind the
line of scrimmage in 2023 (131).
Already 24 years old.
Bottom Line
While the Ducks' offensive scheme is very user-friendly in terms
of helping a quarterback get rid of the ball quickly and its receivers
to separate quickly, it still takes a smart and talented decision-maker
to make it work. Nix took only five sacks in 2023 and 10 over
his two seasons in Eugene. His completion percentage speaks for
itself, but what it does not say is how often his accuracy helped
the scheme look good. The Ducks posted a ridiculous 3,071 yards
after the catch in 2023, which is a credit to the receiving talent
but also speaks to how often Nix throws the ball in a spot where
they could do something with it. The 2019 SEC Freshman of the
Year is not an elite athlete by any means, but he is still a weapon
on the move with his ability to run for a first down or keep a
play alive long enough to throw him man open for a big play. His
poise and improvisation skills are about as good as any of his
peers in this draft class.
It is understandably hard to knock a quarterback's decision-making
when he threw just three interceptions on 470 attempts last season,
but he has some questions in that area. Nix rarely needed to come
off his first read, so defenses that were confident enough in
their ability to press Oregon's receivers forced him to hold the
ball and improvise. The Ducks also did not feel the need to put
Nix in a position to fail very often by having him make low-percentage
deep throws. Combined with his aforementioned 131 throws behind
the line of scrimmage and 181 "short" pass attempts,
312 of his 470 throws last season were within 10 yards of the
line of scrimmage.
Can Nix succeed outside a spread offense that relies so heavily
on RPOs and screens? The fact he was able to process as quickly
as he did at Oregon does not come close to guaranteeing he can
do it in the NFL because pro defenses are more athletic and much
more complex. Nix will need to be willing to throw into tight
windows more often. He has the arm and athleticism to enjoy the
kind of success Garcia or Tony Romo had during their career. The
amount of college experience he brings to the table is unprecedented,
so he will have seen about as much as any quarterback could hope
to see entering the pros. His biggest questions are ones Oregon
did not let him answer. He has the traits to be a good one, so
his next team will need to roll the dice on the belief it has
the position coach who can take him from a "see-it-and-throw-it"
passer to one who trusts his playmakers enough to throw it to
a spot. The bet here is he possesses the intangibles to power
through the inevitable rough spots and carve out a career similar
to the one Mayfield has put together.
Doug Orth has written for FFToday since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
