Best Scheme Fit: Projects
best as a traditional X (split end) in any offense but possesses
the ability to play all three receiver spots at a high level.
Best Team Fit(s): Chargers, Giants, Cardinals,
Patriots, Bears
Non-bolded times - Good examples of attribute Bolded times - Average/poor examples of attribute
* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For receivers, a player needs to be a realistic
threat for 70 catches and 1,000 receiving yards at some point
early in their career to be a candidate for a perfect grade. Positional
scarcity at the pro level is also a part of the equation.
Positives
Few receivers show better ball skills or more body control
in contested-catch situations.
Exceptional hands-catcher (3.2 percent drop rate in 2023
on 140 catchable targets was sixth in FBS for receivers with
at least 100 targets).
Understands the value of stacking his defender on vertical
shots, by either keeping him on his back or drawing a penalty
(he led FBS in pass interference calls drawn with nine in 2023).
Quickly finds his way into his defender's blind spot and
has a natural feel for the soft spot in zone coverage.
Feisty blocker who genuinely appears to enjoy being physical
with his man, particularly when he has a chance to seal the
edge.
Team captain with undeniable toughness; suffered a broken
rib and punctured lung on Sept. 30 but did not miss a game following
a bye week.
Negatives
Although he wins at every kind of route, his attention to
detail and urgency on them is lacking at times.
Rarely showed off the wheels that once made him a highly
decorated high school sprinter.
Does not create much separation on downfield routes and seems
content too often to win in contested-catch situations.
Run-after-catch production and play strength are a bit disappointing
given his size and athleticism.
His release could use some work and his ability to beat the
jam off the line of scrimmage is inconsistent.
Bottom Line
No college receiver was more productive down the field last season
than Odunze, who led all qualified wideouts in deep catches (23),
deep yards (783) and contested catches (21). It was his proficiency
in the third category that buoyed the first two. Make no mistake
about it: Odunze was not blowing by many defenders very often.
There is also little question that having a great deep-ball passer
such as Michael Penix Jr. throwing "trust balls" to him as often
as he did boosted all of those numbers. While that may seem like
a harsh introduction for such an accomplished receiver, it is
more that Odunze does not win in the most aesthetically pleasing
way. The beauty of his game, however, is that players such as
Hopkins have already proven that a receiver can lean heavily on
body positioning and ball skills and still be a feared alpha receiver.
There are shades of Davante Adams and Keenan Allen in his game,
but both men are much more refined route-runners than Odunze,
who is more of a contested-catch receiver at this point. While
his 4.45 speed is impressive for a receiver his size, evaluators
rarely had a chance to see it because the Las Vegas native went
down on first contact far too often. His lack of play strength
is also surprising for a player of his size who tested out as
such an explosive athlete at the NFL Combine and largely explains
why he averaged only 5.6 yards after catch per reception in 2023
- good for 107th in the country. Last but not least, Odunze struggled
to create separation consistently, enough to the point where the
question has to be asked if Washington's wide-open attack and
the high-level accuracy of his quarterback may have covered up
the lack of route crispness he will need in the NFL.
Odunze's athletic profile suggests his best days are ahead of
him as a vertical threat and separator. If for no other reason,
pro coaching should be able to improve him in those areas. There
are no questions about his work ethic or toughness either. His
hands are as strong as any receiver's in this draft class and
he has already mastered some of the more nuanced parts of being
a receiver (such as stacking, getting into a defender's blind
spot and uncovering against zone coverage). His willingness to
block and physicality as a blocker will get him on the field early
and keep him there. His "my ball" mentality should make
him a preferred red zone target as well. Odunze may not be an
immediate alpha receiver like draft classmates Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, but it would be surprising if he doesn't
get there at some point early in his NFL career. It may be unrealistic
for Odunze to reach the same heights as Hopkins has in his career,
but the possibility of coming close to that level eventually exists
if the Biletnikoff Award finalist lands in a good situation at
the end of April.
Doug Orth has written for FFToday since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
