I have long believed the next great advantage in fantasy football - especially when it comes to setting lineups - is to be able to project what kind of defense teams will play with some accuracy and uncover which players - namely wide receivers and tight ends - tend to exploit that kind of defense the most.

The way I see it, this is the natural evolution of Preseason Matchup Analysis. (The only thing that was holding me up from doing this 10 years ago was data availability. Thanks to the data charters at Fantasy Points, I now have the information I have been seeking.) There are very few cornerbacks in the league that shadow anymore. Even then, they rarely travel with the receiver they are shadowing more than 60 percent of the time. Furthermore, zone defense accounts for roughly 75 percent of the defense played around the league nowadays. My analysis has to account for that.

Unfortunately, we need to be more specific than "zone" or "man" coverages. Unlike basketball where the overwhelming majority of teams rely heavily on either straight-up man-to-man defense or a 2-3 zone, football offers several more zone concepts. Making things more confusing, there is also usually at least one or two players utilizing man principles on the majority of zone defenses. Within each concept are permutations and rules, such as robber, buzz or trap coverages or if the defense decides to pattern-match. For our purposes, however, I do not believe we do not need to get that specific.

Over the next two weeks, I intend to lay the groundwork of what defenses might do in 2024 by recapping what defenses did last season - since defensive coordinators tend not to drastically change their stripes very often - and following up with a piece of the players who fared well against that coverage in 2023 (if not 2022 as well).

This week's article will be the first of a two-part series and detail what each zone defense does, its strengths and weaknesses and how much each team played it last year. For the first five defenses I discuss this week, it helps to think of the number following the hyphen as the number of free defenders in the secondary with no man coverage duties. Think of this article as a Cliff Notes version of the most common defenses in the game today. This week will be more about increasing your knowledge as a football fan. Next week, I intend to build upon this information and apply it to the fantasy game.

Cover-0 (played 4.1 percent league-wide in 2023)

Cover-0 is as man coverage as man coverage gets. It is the most high-risk, high-reward defense that exists. For that reason, defensive coordinators tend to save it for specific late-game or short-yardage situations.

Advantages of Cover-0: Simplicity. Defenders are essentially lined up across from the players they will cover at the snap; every defender is either rushing or in man-to-man coverage. The odds of generating quick pressure, which is the result of rushing at least six players. If one defender is not accounted for in the protection, there is a good chance the defense will win the rep - via a sack, fumble or a pressure that leads to an interception. The one-more-man-than-they-can-block part of this defense also makes it a good defense against the run-pass option (RPO) because there is likely to be a defender near the line of scrimmage that is not accounted for by a blocker. There are also variations (such as "Rat") that allow coaches to rush five using Cover-0 and take away a slant or crossing route.

Disadvantages of Cover-0: There is no help defender in Cover-0. It is the ultimate high-risk/high-reward defense. If a defender gets beat quickly off the line of scrimmage on a short movement route - such as a slant or quick out - or is unable to remain sticky in coverage on a deeper route, the receiver will likely be making a house call. Bunch formations or pick (or rub) plays - such as a wheel route - can also cause issues, especially if a proficient receiving back can get isolated on a slower linebacker.

What beats it? Players capable of beating the press quickly, perimeter receivers with elite speed and/or the ability to sell a double move quickly. Tight ends who can run like the wind and/or create quick separation also do well against Cover-0 because there is no deep defender in the middle of the field.

*** Most NFL defenses use this coverage about once every 20-25 plays, so there is not a lot of predictive value here. Except for the Vikings (DC Brian Flores used it on 11.2 percent of drop-backs in 2023 - more than twice as much as all but two play-callers last season), Cover-0 will not factor into my Preseason Matchup Analysis methodology this summer.

Cover-1 (18.9 percent)

More teams utilize Cover-1 than any other (primarily) man-coverage shell in today's game. Cover-1 is similar to Cover-0 in some respects, with the most obvious difference being there is one "free" defender to reduce the risk of a defense giving up a big play. By extension, there is also one less rusher than in Cover-0.

Advantages of Cover-1: A five-man rush allows the defense to apply solid pressure. The "free" safety is available to provide over-the-top coverage on an alpha receiver, lend support to a defender who gets beat early or serve as the last line of defense on a well-executed run play. Much like Cover-0, this shell is simple to execute and should not result in coverage busts very often.

Disadvantages of Cover-1: This coverage has most of the same weaknesses as Cover-0. While not as risky as Cover-0, Cover-1 is still susceptible to getting beat by speed on the perimeter and puts a lot of stress on coverage players to maintain their assignments. Every coverage player almost needs to be an elite athlete or he runs the risk of getting burnt.

What beats it? Players capable of beating the press quickly, perimeter receivers with elite speed and/or the ability to sell a double move quickly. Deep crossers, such as the ones Kansas City loves to use when it has speed at receiver. Once again, pick (or rub) plays and/or bunch formations can wreak havoc.

Cover-2 (10.5 percent)

Cover-2 can be a man or zone defense. The hallmark of Cover-2 coverage is two deep safeties each covering half of the deep part of the field. Those safeties typically line up somewhere between 15-18 yards off the line of scrimmage. It became very popular in the NFL in the late 80s and 90s as coaches looked for answers to stop the West Coast offense, but the defense is not utilized nearly as much now as it was even 10 years ago.

Advantages of Cover-2: Cover-2 gives the defense seven men in coverage, so it is a "safe" defense. Especially when the front four is disruptive and/or the cornerbacks are very good tacklers, it provides great balance against the run or pass. At its best (meaning the team has highly athletic players in coverage), Cover 2 does a good job of challenging the short passing game while also forcing the quarterback to throw over the linebacker but underneath the safety. It is also one of the simpler zone defenses to run.

Disadvantages of Cover-2: Naturally, if a defense is designed to take away short throws and make it somewhat challenging to throw deep, then it makes sense that the intermediate part of the field should be open. As with the rest of the defenses we will discuss, having more men in coverage is somewhat meaningless if the front four defenders are not good pass rushers. Another shortcoming is how familiar quarterbacks and offensive coordinators are with it. True Cover-2 is not great against the run because the offense is very likely to have just as many blockers as the defense has defenders in the box.

What beats it? Four verticals (four go routes) or a trips (3x1)/bunch formation. Elite route-runners with great spatial awareness can get open against just about every coverage, but they can be deadly against Cover-2 because of how they can influence the safety. Highly athletic tight ends with the speed to outrun linebackers down the seam will feast if the safeties have to respect the speed of the perimeter receivers.

Cover-3 (35.8 percent)

Cover-3 is similar to Cover-1 in that it is a one-high safety coverage but different because the cornerbacks (typically) drop back at the snap to split the deep part of the field into thirds. This defense was used more often than any other coverage last season by a wide margin last season.

Advantages of Cover-3: Balance and versatility. By balance, I mean Cover-3 works well against the run or the pass if executed well. By versatility, I mean there are several variations to address some of the shell's weaknesses. Splitting the field into thirds instead of halves makes it more challenging for quarterbacks to throw the ball successfully downfield. Much like Cover 1, the strong safety is closer to the line of scrimmage to add another man to the box against the run.

Disadvantages of Cover-3: Whereas Cover-2 has five underneath defenders to cover underneath zones, Cover-3 only has four. So, a well-timed slant route, for example, could hit for big yardage since the cornerback is typically backing up and the linebacker is responsible for the short flat.

What beats it? Since the perimeter cornerbacks are usually in "bail" coverage to defend their third of the field, anything that hits short and quick - such as a hitch or an out - in the flat is usually a win for the offense. Once again, four verticals works well because there are only three deep defenders to account for four deep receivers. Tight ends or slot receivers that run well down the seam or have the speed to separate from coverage on deep over routes also tend to do well.

Cover-4 (14.2 percent)

Also known as "quarters coverage," Cover-4 zone probably blurs the line between man and zone more than any other defense listed here. For that reason and others, it is gaining popularity around the league and may overtake Cover-3 as the primary defense in the league in a few years.

Advantages of Cover-4: With four deep defenders each responsible to cover just over 13 yards of ground horizontally (instead of 26.7 in Cover-2 and roughly 18 yards in Cover-3), it is difficult for offenses to push the ball down the field against Cover-4. It can also look like Cover-2 at the snap, so quarterbacks who struggle to adjust post-snap can struggle (thinking they are throwing deep to exploit two deep safeties and end up throwing into four). Modern versions of Cover-4 have their safeties move up about five yards playing closer to the line of scrimmage than traditional Cover-2 to provide more run support.

Disadvantages of Cover-4: Since four players are in deep coverage, it leaves only three players (assuming a four-man rush) to cover underneath, so the short and intermediate areas of the field should be open for multiple pass-catchers. Cover-4 also often requires more practice and communication among defensive backs than the aforementioned coverages because of the different rules (i.e. more if/then scenarios), so busts can happen. Additionally, playing four defenders about 15 yards (assuming a shell coverage) behind the line of scrimmage puts them at a significant disadvantage against the run.

What beats it? Passing plays that occupy both safeties and/or force them to hesitate. Double posts can sometimes occupy all four deep defenders because the receivers running them are crossing over from one quarters coverage area to the next. Play-action passes to influence the safeties and speedy receivers who can run an effective double move can also do damage. Receivers or tight ends with enough spatial awareness to find a void behind the linebackers and in front of the safety over the middle of the field also excel since there are not as many intermediate defenders as there are in some of the other coverages.

Cover-6 (9.5 percent)

Also known as quarters-quarters-half coverage, Cover-6 is an interesting defense in that it looks like Cover-3 before the snap (with three deep defenders and four underneath). After the snap, it combines the principles of Cover-2 and Cover-4 to split the field into two separate coverage alignments. It has grown in popularity in recent years to combat the offenses that attempt to confuse the defense with unbalanced sets - such as trips - that attempt to attempt to create a favorable matchup for their primary receiver to the weak side of the offensive formation.

Advantages of Cover-6: As one might imagine with a defense that looks like one alignment pre-snap and essentially turns into two other ones after the snap, quarterbacks (especially young ones) can get confused. They do not have the luxury of assuming both sides of the field are being defended the same way. In short, quarterbacks need to see the entire field. Since Cover-6 is a combination of Cover-2 and Cover-4, it is also very good against the deep passing game. Cover-6 works well against trips and bunch formations because it can lend more defenders to that side if necessary.

Disadvantages of Cover-6: Resources can be spread too thin in Cover-6, as there is not enough coverage for passes thrown in the flat. The safety on the Cover-2 side also has to cover significantly more ground than the two deep defenders on the Cover-4 side. As noted earlier, Cover-4 probably requires the most communication and practice of the defenses mentioned previously. Therefore, it makes sense that Cover-6 is the most complex of the defenses in this piece because it incorporates one set of rules for one side and another set of rules for the other side.

What beats it? Simply put, running Cover-4 beaters to the Cover-4 side and Cover-2 beaters to the Cover-2 side. Since cornerbacks are bailing out at the snap, Cover-6 can be vulnerable to passes in the flat.

*** Cover-6 was used at the second-lowest rate of any defense listed above, so there is not a lot of predictive value here. Coincidentally, the six teams that used it the most last season - the Dolphins (25.1 percent), Chargers (21.4), Falcons (16.9), Ravens (16.4), Seahawks (15.7) and Rams (15) - have different defensive coordinators this season. Outside of maybe the Eagles - former DC Vic Fangio left Miami for Philly - Cover-6 will likely not factor into my Preseason Matchup Analysis methodology this summer.

The next logical step to take after explaining each defense is discovering how often each team used it last season.

I removed any shell coverage that was not utilized on at least 15 percent of drop-backs. The hope here is to give each of you some idea of what each team relies on the most. Fear not, as I plan on using as much of the pertinent information as possible to power my matchup analysis and projections for my Big Boards in a few weeks.

* All information courtesy of Fantasy Points Data Suite*

As you can tell, there was no shortage of turnover at defensive coordinator this offseason. While that makes forecasting more difficult, this is no different than any other puzzle we try to solve in this little hobby - work with the information that you have and try to solve the remaining mysteries based on their background/influences. It also helps to know the direction the league is moving, which is a heavy lean toward Cover-3 and Cover-4 - the latter of which is likely to become the second-most common zone coverage shell in the next year or two.