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Defensive Weak Spots - AFC


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 7/1/25 |


Sometime between the end of the preseason and the first week of the season, fantasy managers and analysts alike shift gears from not caring one iota about their players' matchups to making it their primary consideration when setting about 70 percent of their lineup. A tough three- or four-game stretch for a player at the beginning or end of the season should not surprise anyone who calls watching or analyzing football their job, yet many are shocked to learn some of their players open the season with three of their first five or six games against likely top 10 pass or rush defenses.

THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF FANTASY ANALYSTS DO NOT CONSIDER DEFENSIVE MATCHUPS WHEN CREATING PROJECTIONS.

There is a distinct reason I do this year after year (and I think it has been instrumental in why I have yet to lose money in any single year since I began playing in money leagues 25 years ago): it matters.

Defense may not matter as much as it used to, but it is a mistake not to account for it at all. Doing so suggests a belief that NFL games are like seven-on-seven drills. I realized as early as 2004 that I did not like the idea of my players having to face the Ravens or the Steelers, especially during the fantasy playoffs. Certainly, my approach has evolved significantly from that initial premise, but I think my track record of success speaks for itself and suggests there is substantial value in putting some weight into "the matchup." The key is giving potential matchups the proper amount of weight to a player's evaluation. By itself, a matchup will not transform an every-week RB3 into an RB1 or turn a perennial WR1 into a bench option, but it is helpful for fantasy managers trying to find weekly and even season-long values and avoid potential busts.

That brings us to our focus for the next two weeks. With defenses operating out of sub-packages (nickel, dime, quarter, etc.) around 75 percent of the time in today's game, it makes sense to use their likely sub-package personnel as the basis for matchup analysis. Furthermore, it helps to have an understanding of how each veteran defensive player who will be playing in those packages graded out and/or performed last year. With the help of sites like Fantasy Points, Pro Football Focus and Pro Football Reference, we can do that.

Defense is a team endeavor, so the process is never as easy as spotting a player with a weakness and having an offense exploit that matchup repeatedly. An important part of coaching in any sport is the ability to maximize players' strengths and mask their weaknesses; players either will get help from the scheme or be benched if they continue to struggle. Nevertheless, the goal of any good offense is to isolate the weak link in the passing defense as often as possible or take advantage of what may be a "soft" run defense (assuming that matches up with the run-blocking ability of the offensive line). It is also important to understand that no defender lines up across any offensive player on every play, so we are playing odds here as opposed to dealing with virtual certainties (i.e., the few shadow cornerbacks that exist usually only "shadow" about 50-60 percent of the time).

The color-coding in this two-part series is based on last year only because we have no information about this season. Last year's color codes help set the stage for this year. Film analysis and advanced analytics help us predict what may happen.

Each team table below will contain more than 11 players. Projected starters will have projected grades next to their ages, but the rotational players will not because I want the final projected scores (coverage and run defense) for each team to reflect the defenders logging the most snaps. Much as I did for the offensive line piece two weeks ago, I will rank each team in terms of projected coverage, pass rush and run defense scores next week.

The purpose of this article is simple, even if the execution of it is not: attempting to identify what defenders present fantasy owners with an opportunity for success. There is a heavy amount of subjectivity that goes into my color-coding matchups in advance of the Big Board. I hope that this process reduces some of that and gives readers a look under the hood, so to speak.

Key:

Green box - Player graded 80 or higher in that particular discipline per PFF (100-point scale)
Blue box - Player graded between 70 or 79.9 in that particular discipline
Yellow box - Player graded between 60 or 69.9 in that particular discipline
Red box - Player graded 59.9 or lower in that particular discipline
Black box - Player did not log a snap in the NFL snap or the discipline does not apply to his position

Italic (player name) - Likely (but potentially important) rotational player
# - Rookie
- Currently injured

25 Cov - Projected 2025 coverage grade
25 Run - Projected 2025 run defense grade
Grades - Coverage (Cov) and run defense (Run D)

** NEW THIS YEAR ** I have listed cornerbacks in the order I believe they stand on the depth chart. For example, I am projecting Jaire Alexander and Marlon Humphrey to start and log the most snaps for Baltimore if they stay healthy. When the Ravens need three corners, Alexander and Nate Wiggins will play outside and Humphrey will move inside.

 Baltimore
Player Pos Age 25 Cov 25 Run Cov Grade Run D Grade
Kyle Van Noy ED 35 6.6 65.3 68.4
Nnamdi Madubuike DI 27 6.3 62.6 64.3
Travis Jones DI 25 6.9 60.5 72.0
Odafe Oweh ED 26 6.4 69.9 64.6
Roquan Smith LB 28 7.4 7.2 62.6 69.7
Trenton Simpson LB 24 5.9 6.5 55.3 63.2
Jaire Alexander CB 28 8.2 6.1 78.3 57.8
Marlon Humphrey Slot 28 7.7 7.6 81.0 70.4
Nate Wiggins CB 21 7.3 7.4 69.0 84.5
Malaki Starks # S 21 7.9 6.3
Kyle Hamilton S 24 8.6 8.8 88.4 89.2
Rotational Players 53.0 76.1
Broderick Washington DI 28 61.4 48.6
Mike Green # ED 21
David Ojabo ED 25 44.3 58.6
Teddye Buchanan # LB 22
Chidobe Awuzie CB 30 58.4 80.4
T.J. Tampa CB 23 55.3 44.9
Sanoussi Kane S 23 64.6 69.3

DC: Zach Orr (second year)

Run: The Ravens boasted the league's top run defense in terms of yards and yards per carry allowed last season. Every key front-seven defender from that defense is back in 2025 except for retired NT Michael Pierce. As we have come to expect from teams like Baltimore, the Ravens prepared for this eventuality three years ago when they spent a third-round pick on Jones. They also fortified their depth this spring by adding the well-traveled Jenkins. Even age is not a problem for Baltimore, as Van Noy is the only front-seven defender above who is older than 28.

Who to target in the passing game: Wiggins will be tested the most, almost by default, since a healthy Alexander is probably no worse than one of the top 10 cornerbacks in the league. The same might actually be true for Humphrey as well.

Who to avoid in the passing game: Teams will likely test Starks early in the season, but that is unlikely to go well after the first month. Between him and Hamilton, tight ends and vertical receivers should have their hands full producing against the Ravens. Humphrey gave up three touchdowns in his coverage last season, which was two more than the previous two seasons combined. As the defender who typically lines up inside against three-wide sets in Baltimore, Humphrey figures to make Baltimore a difficult matchup for slot receivers again in 2025.

 Buffalo
Player Pos Age 25 Cov 25 Run Cov Grade Run D Grade
Joey Bosa ED 29 6.5 60.5 67.4
Ed Oliver DI 27 5.3 74.3 50.4
DaQuan Jones DI 33 5.7 67.2 53.4
Greg Rousseau ED 25 7.1 71.6 69.8
Matt Milano LB 30 6.7 6.1 45.1 59.6
Terrel Bernard LB 26 5.0 6.5 37.7 64.0
Christian Benford CB 24 8.4 7.3 78.6 71.3
Maxwell Hairston # CB 21 6.2 5.8
Taron Johnson Slot 28 6.8 6.3 55.9 70.1
Taylor Rapp S 27 5.6 8.1 43.2 86.0
Damar Hamlin S 27 5.8 6.7 41.5 72.2
Rotational Players 44.5 71.4
T.J. Sanders # DI 21
A.J. Epenesa ED 26 62.2 61.6
Landon Jackson # ED 22
Shaq Thompson LB 31 62.9 73.2
Dorian Williams LB 24 39.1 74.2
Tre'Davious White CB 30 54.8 52.6
Cole Bishop S 22 48.7 56.7

DC: Bobby Babich (second year)

Run: The Bills ranked about middle of the pack in defending the run from a total-yardage and yards-per-carry allowed basis. While the addition of 336-pound Deone Walker (2025 fourth-round draft pick) suggests that Buffalo realizes it needs more beef up front, one big body probably will not be enough to fix what has been a problem for a while. Unlike Baltimore above, the Bills usually need to play in positive game script to avoid being exposed by run-heavy teams. Then again, a healthy Milano would be a huge step in the right direction. He has been limited to nine games combined over the last two seasons.

Who to target in the passing game: Johnson struggled in the slot a year ago after three straight strong seasons inside. He will probably be the corner that opponents target the most once Hairston settles into being a pro. Speaking of the rookie, Hairston will likely be the fastest player on the field more often than not, but it could take him a while before he can handle bigger NFL receivers.

Who to avoid in the passing game: Benford has quickly emerged as one of the league's top corners. He will shadow on occasion and is one of the few corners in the league who fantasy managers need to fear when all but the most elite receivers face the Bills. Rapp and Hamlin may not strike the same fear into opponents that Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer used to, but Buffalo has historically been very good against tight ends and deep-threat receivers because HC Sean McDermott believes strongly in keeping two safeties back and making offenses nickel-and-dime their way down the field. There is no reason to expect that to change in 2025.

 Cincinnati
Player Pos Age 25 Cov 25 Run Cov Grade Run D Grade
Trey Hendrickson ED 30 6.2 59.5 65.9
B.J. Hill DI 30 6.5 63.3 69.2
T.J. Slaton DI 27 5.1 56.0 44.0
Joseph Ossai ED 25 5.5 59.0 57.0
Logan Wilson LB 28 6.0 8.3 57.0 90.0
Demetrius Knight Jr. # LB 24 5.8 6.7
Cam Taylor-Britt CB 25 6.5 6.0 64.3 68.4
DJ Turner II CB 24 6.6 5.4 68.4 57.1
Dax Hill Slot 24 6.1 7.1 68.0 66.0
Geno Stone S 26 6.5 4.8 53.7 45.5
Jordan Battle S 24 5.9 6.3 53.0 59.0
Rotational Players 43.4 67.9
Kris Jenkins DI 23 52.4 46.6
McKinnley Jackson DI 23 65.5 53.1
Shemar Stewart # ED 21
Myles Murphy ED 23 69.6 48.6
Oren Burks LB 30 82.4 77.1
Josh Newton CB 24 60.9 57.9
DJ Ivey CB 25 52.5 68.1
Tycen Anderson S 26 60.7

DC: Al Golden (first year)

Run: The Bengals were a middle-of-the-pack run defense in 2024. It is hard to imagine they will not be among the worst rush defenses in 2025. Hendrickson is unhappy (at least for now), DE Sam Hubbard retired and LB Germaine Pratt was let go in mid-June. Wilson is a stud against the run, but even the best linebackers need protection from their linemen. Slaton and Hill possess the size to be forces against the run, but it has been a while since either player graded well in that area. Jenkins should be a very good player at some point, but he figures to be much better as an interior pass rusher.

Who to target in the passing game: Take your pick. Taylor-Britt has the goods to be a top-20 corner in the league, but he is coming off a year in which he gave up 10 touchdown catches in his coverage (he allowed five in his first two seasons combined). The Bengals have viewed Hill as their long-term answer in the slot for a while, but they are operating without a safety net there after letting Mike Hilton go. Things could get ugly against slot receivers quickly if Hill goes down as he did last year.

Who to avoid in the passing game: N/A

 Cleveland
Player Pos Age 25 Cov 25 Run Cov Grade Run D Grade
Myles Garrett ED 29 8.0 65.2 78.4
Mason Graham # DI 21 5.3
Maliek Collins DI 30 4.6 66.7 42.8
Isaiah McGuire ED 23 7.8 58.4 86.1
Carson Schwesinger # LB 22 7.5 6.6
Jordan Hicks LB 33 7.2 8.0 70.0 77.7
Denzel Ward CB 28 7.2 6.0 68.9 61.1
Martin Emerson Jr. CB 24 6.2 6.2 48.4 55.8
Greg Newsome II Slot 25 6.4 5.5 54.0 52.1
Grant Delpit S 26 6.6 6.6 60.9 67.3
Ronnie Hickman Jr. S 23 7.5 7.4 71.3 81.7
Rotational Players 48.6 72.0
Michael Hall Jr. DI 22 61.0 67.8
Shelby Harris DI 33 60.5 67.9
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka ED 26 63.3 50.2
Julian Okwara ED 27 46.9 69.9
Jerome Baker LB 28 60.7 65.7
Cameron Mitchell CB 23 55.3 44.3
Rayshawn Jenkins S 31 58.0 42.8
Damontae Kazee S 32 56.4 73.6

DC: Jim Schwartz (third year)

Run: Cleveland has been a middling run defense since Schwartz arrived before the start of the 2023 season, although it could be argued that he has not had a disruptor like Graham up front since he joined the Browns. Between Graham and Harris, Cleveland should be stingier against running games than it was last year. It would also help the run defense's cause if the offense carried its weight more often. While this year's offense probably will not be very explosive, it will probably do a much better job of not hanging the defense out to dry (faced an average of 29 rush attempts last year). The team will miss LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (neck), however.

Who to target in the passing game: Fair or not, Newsome has been considered the weak link of the secondary in recent years since Emerson proved to be an undrafted free-agent gem. Meanwhile, teams targeted Newsome to avoid Ward. Newsome also struggled to stay healthy (again) in 2024. While Emerson is a good candidate to bounce back given his track record, opponents will happily continue to wear out Newsome in the slot because he so rarely makes them regret it (three interceptions in four NFL seasons).

Who to avoid in the passing game: Ward led the league with 19 passes defensed and only allowed a catch rate of 53.5 percent on targets in his coverage. While his star seems to be fading a bit at age 28, he is still not a matchup fantasy managers want their receiver to see. With Schwesinger likely to become a three-down player right away, opposing running backs could be in for a long day in the passing game. The former walk-on moves like a safety and is a player who should be able to run with all but the most athletic tight ends.

 Denver
Player Pos Age 25 Cov 25 Run Cov Grade Run D Grade
Nik Bonitto ED 25 6.3 92.6 59.1
Zach Allen DI 27 6.1 60.7 50.5
John Franklin-Myers DI 28 6 68.8 52.5
Jonathon Cooper ED 27 7.1 54.6 69.6
Alex Singleton LB 31 5.6 7.8 53.5 73.5
Dre Greenlaw LB 28 7.5 7.7 63.5 85
Pat Surtain II CB 25 8.8 8 85.1 81.8
Riley Moss CB 25 6.7 6.2 56.9 59.2
Jahdae Barron # Slot 23 7.3 6.7
Brandon Jones S 27 8.5 7 89.8 72.4
Talanoa Hufanga S 26 7.9 6.9 52.4 74.5
Rotational Players 52.3 75.8
D.J. Jones DI 30 49.3 64.6
Malcolm Roach DI 27 61.2 56.6
Jonah Elliss ED 22 28.7 64.7
Sai'vion Jones # ED 21
Justin Strnad LB 28 50.4 50.5
Drew Sanders LB 23 42 54.8
Kris Abrams-Draine CB 23 74.7 68.6
P.J. Locke S 28 50.7 50.4

DC: Vance Joseph (third year)

Run: Despite the less-than-impressive run defense grades above - especially along the defensive line - the Broncos finished third in the league in run defense (total yards) and second in yards allowed per carry (3.9). Allen has emerged as a dominant force and draws his fair share of double teams. As long as he is healthy, Denver will usually be able to create chaos since Joseph likes to blitz as much as any defensive coordinator. While its PFF run defense grades might not suggest it, Denver could be even better against the run after swapping out Cody Barton for Greenlaw, who only played in two games for the 49ers last season after tearing his Achilles in the Super Bowl the year before. If he is all the way back and the defensive line stays healthy, the Broncos should be even more dominant against the run.

Who to target in the passing game: It is not so much that Moss should be the player who offenses should target, it is more that he is the least of all the evils on Denver's defense. Quarterbacks already know they are not going to make a living trying to beat Surtain. Moss will give up some plays this year because he will be targeted so much, but fantasy managers should not make the mistake of assuming he is an easy matchup. He could be one of the best No. 2 cornerbacks in the league by season's end.

Who to avoid in the passing game: The fantasy industry sometimes makes the mistake of believing a player can be a shutdown corner. In today's game, that is nearly impossible. Surtain gave up 40 catches on a 72.7-percent catch rate and two touchdowns in his coverage last year. What made him so good was that he was only targeted 55 times and intercepted four passes despite predominantly lining up across the other team's best receiver. While a date against Denver does not automatically mean an alpha receiver is going to get erased by Surtain, it usually means it will be a slow day at the office. After adding Hufanga to Jones at safety, fantasy managers should probably expect tight ends facing the Broncos to struggle in 2025 as well. Barron may struggle inside initially, but he should be one of the tougher matchups for slot receivers by the end of the year as well.

 Houston
Player Pos Age 25 Cov 25 Run Cov Grade Run D Grade
Danielle Hunter ED 30 6.8 71.1 73.2
Folorunso Fatukasi DI 30 5.5 65.7 33.9
Tim Settle DI 27 5 64.7 45.3
Will Anderson Jr. ED 23 8 85.9 78.8
Azeez Al-Shaair LB 27 6 8.4 56.5 82.7
Henry To'oTo'o LB 24 5.8 7.5 55.2 70.4
Derek Stingley Jr. CB 24 8.8 5.5 84.4 55.9
Kamari Lassiter CB 22 8 6.3 77.5 60.8
Jalen Pitre Slot 26 6.7 6.5 71.3 79.5
Calen Bullock S 22 5.6 7.2 36.2 77.9
C.J. Gardner-Johnson S 27 7.7 6 85.7 59.6
Rotational Players 48.6 72.7
Mario Edwards Jr. DI 31 65.7 45.7
Sheldon Rankins DI 31 71.2 46.2
Denico Autry ED 34 56.4 54.1
Derek Barnett ED 29 60 73.9
E.J. Speed LB 30 46.3 71.5
Christian Harris LB 24 39.4 53
Jaylin Smith # CB 21
Jimmie Ward S 33 73.9 75.6

DC: Matt Burke (third year)

Run: Were it not for the 251 rushing yards they surrendered to the Ravens on Christmas Day, the Texans would have likely finished much higher than just a borderline top-10 rush defense. Houston returns most of the key front-seven players from last season and may have improved a bit at linebacker if Speed beats out To'oTo'o for a starting job and/or Harris stays healthy. It is worth noting in the four seasons since head coach DeMeco Ryans landed his first defensive coordinator job in 2021 (with the 49ers) that his teams have never finished lower than 11th in rushing yardage or rushing yards-per-carry allowed.

Who to target in the passing game: Considering how good Stingley and Lassiter graded (primarily outside the numbers), it should come as no surprise that the slot is where most teams attacked Houston. Pitre is a safety who is versatile enough to guard receivers in the slot, but it stands to reason that opposing quarterbacks would rest easier throwing in his direction than a couple of full-time corners.

Who to avoid in the passing game: While Patrick Surtain II won the league's Defensive Player of the Year honors in 2024, Stingley was arguably more dominant. He allowed only 45.3 percent of the 95 passes thrown in his coverage to be completed and intercepted more throws (five) than he allowed touchdowns (four). The primary difference between the two stud corners is that Stingley did not travel with the other team's best receiver very often. Lassiter was slightly more forgiving than Stingley, yielding a catch rate of only 45.2 percent. The Texans were above average defending the tight end a year ago, but they could be a downright awful matchup for them this year as long as Gardner-Johnson stays healthy.

 Indianapolis
Player Pos Age 25 Cov 25 Run Cov Grade Run D Grade
Laiatu Latu ED 24 6.6 49.9 62.3
DeForest Buckner DI 31 7 61.2 73.9
Grover Stewart DI 31 7.4 60.8 78.7
Kwity Paye ED 26 7.1 69.8 67.4
Zaire Franklin LB 28 5.4 7.4 47.7 72.3
Jaylon Carlies LB 23 7.2 5.6 83.1 54.6
Charvarius Ward CB 29 7.8 7.1 58.2 48.4
Jaylon Jones CB 23 7 6.4 67.9 62.4
Kenny Moore II Slot 29 7.4 7.5 68.2 71.8
Camryn Bynum S 26 6.3 7 58.6 67.8
Nick Cross S 23 6.8 8.1 64.3 80.2
Rotational Players 47.9 77.2
Neville Gallimore DI 28 60 47.1
JT Tuimoloau # ED 22
Tyquan Lewis ED 30 63.4 70.4
Cameron McGrone LB 25 60
Justin Walley # CB 22
Samuel Womack III CB 25 71.3 64.3
Daniel Scott S 26
Rodney Thomas II S 27 57.8 56.1

DC: Lou Anarumo (first year)

Run: Last year, the Colts were one of those several teams every year that were respectable at stopping the run (4.2 yards per carry allowed) but finished in the bottom 10 of rush defense because opponents were able to run so often against them (531 attempts, second most in the league). With the exception of losing LB E.J. Speed to Houston in free agency, the front seven remains mostly intact. The key for Indianapolis being better against the run in 2025 is Buckner staying on the field after an ankle injury caused him to miss five games a season ago.

Who to target in the passing game: Much like Riley Moss in Denver, Jones probably is not someone to target in fantasy as much as he is someone who will be targeted because of his teammate on the other side of the field. Jones did well to allow only one touchdown in his coverage in 2024 after giving up six as a rookie, but it is telling that he allowed 64.7 percent of the throws in his coverage to be completed for 727 yards (10th most in the league) and 13.4 yards per catch (tied for 16th most for full-time cornerbacks).

Who to avoid in the passing game: It has been a few years since the Colts had someone opposing receivers had to respect at outside cornerback. They have one now in Ward, who had a season to forget on and off the field in 2024 but was one of the best in the league with the 49ers in the previous two seasons. It sounds as though he expects to shadow in 2025, so do not be surprised if a few alpha receivers struggle against Indianapolis. The addition of Bynum should make the Colts' defense much less susceptible to being beaten by tight ends as well.

 Jacksonville
Player Pos Age 25 Cov 25 Run Cov Grade Run D Grade
Josh Hines-Allen ED 27 7.5 65.1 70.1
Arik Armstead ED 31 6.3 63.8 61.9
DaVon Hamilton DI 28 5.5 66.7 54.2
Travon Walker ED 24 6.5 60.9 69.2
Foyesade Oluokun LB 29 7.1 6.8 69.5 62.8
Devin Lloyd LB 26 6.6 8.5 62.6 84.2
Travis Hunter # CB 22 7.5 6.5
Tyson Campbell CB 25 6.6 6.2 63.9 54.5
Jarrian Jones Slot 24 6.6 7.8 62.5 88.5
Eric Murray S 31 5.9 6.1 64.9 67.2
Darnell Savage S 27 5.1 6.7 40.7 62
Rotational Players 45.4 74.4
Maason Smith DI 22 59.7 39.7
Jordan Jefferson DI 23 59.8 63.3
Emmanuel Ogbah ED 31 52.9 72.4
Dawuane Smoot ED 30 71.4 53.1
Jack Kiser # LB 24
Ventrell Miller LB 26 45.4 63.4
Jourdan Lewis CB 29 79 45
Caleb Ransaw # S 22
Antonio Johnson S 23 43 75.2

DC: Anthony Campanile (first year)

Run: Jacksonville's most notable change to its front seven was adding some depth pieces to its defensive line. Armstead is still a player opponents need to have a plan for at age 31, but the Jaguars could still use that one stout lineman next to him that offenses cannot move off the spot. If they could find or develop that player, they could be a borderline top 10 against the run because the Jaguars are in good shape at linebacker with Oluokun and Lloyd. Hines-Allen and Walker have established themselves on the edges as well.

Who to target in the passing game: Lewis had a good season in the slot for Dallas in 2024, but it is hard to forget he was a weak link in the Cowboys' defense for long stretches of the four previous seasons. He may not start if Hunter is more of a full-timer than most expect right away. The Jaguars added Murray and Ransaw at safety, but it seems unlikely either one will make a noticeable dent in the team's ability to cover tight ends after Jacksonville gave up the 10th-most fantasy points to the position in 2024.

Who to avoid in the passing game: So much of the answer to this question depends on how often Hunter plays on defense this year. It seems unlikely he would be asked to play a large role on offense and also shadow the opponent's top receiver week after week. Will he be primarily a nickel defender and turn Lewis into a true backup? Campbell appeared to be on the verge of becoming a star after his 2022 season, but his play has fallen off since then. While the 25-year-old may be a better fit as a team's No. 2 cornerback, he may also be a better fit for the new defense that promises to play more zone than they did under former DC Ryan Nielsen last year.

 Kansas City
Player Pos Age 25 Cov 25 Run Cov Grade Run D Grade
George Karlaftis ED 24 6.1 59.0 56.7
Chris Jones DI 30 6.1 67.6 64.0
Mike Pennel DI 34 6.0 55.1 62.4
Mike Danna ED 27 5.8 64.4 57.6
Nick Bolton LB 25 7.1 7.2 65.6 65.8
Drue Tranquill LB 29 6.4 6.0 60.0 67.5
Trent McDuffie Slot 24 8.4 7.7 79.2 81.6
Jaylen Watson CB 26 6.2 6.4 71.6 62.0
Kristian Fulton CB 26 6.8 6.8 66.6 73.1
Bryan Cook S 25 5.5 7.5 51.8 77.0
Jaden Hicks S 22 7.1 7.4 75.7 71.5
Rotational Players 47.5 73.0
Omarr Norman-Lott # DI 23
Jerry Tillery DI 28 54.3 52.1
Charles Omenihu ED 27 70.0 64.1
Felix Anudike-Uzomah ED 23 58.1 61.1
Leo Chenal LB 24 69.6 90.1
Jeffrey Bassa # LB 22
Chamarri Conner CB 24 62.0 83.2
Joshua Williams CB 25 68.3 62.0

DC: Steve Spagnuolo (seventh year)

Run: The Chiefs were among the better rush defenses in the league last year, finishing eighth in yards allowed and tied for fourth in yards per carry (4.1), although it helped that they faced the eighth-fewest rush attempts. Kansas City undoubtedly benefited from playing teams like the Raiders (twice), Broncos (twice) and Saints who struggled to run the rock. The Chiefs did little to improve the front seven in the offseason and lack much depth at defensive tackle, which could lead to a nightmarish scenario for Tranquill, Bolton and/or Chenal if Jones or Pennel get hurt.

Who to target in the passing game: Kansas City did little to fix its susceptibility against tight ends either, so players at that position who can stretch the seam should find success again in 2025, especially considering how much the Chiefs like to blitz. Fulton is on his third team in three years. While he graded out reasonably well in coverage with the Chargers this year, opponents will almost certainly test him and leave McDuffie alone if the Chiefs' pass rush cannot get home quickly enough.

Who to avoid in the passing game: After working mostly as a slot corner in 2023, McDuffie went back to playing mostly on the perimeter in 2024. As with most corners who do not play on just one side - as was the case here - McDuffie was beaten from time to time (six touchdowns allowed). Nevertheless, a 60.8-percent catch rate allowed against the best receivers in the league is not bad since it was the first time he was asked to handle that responsibility. McDuffie will probably not find his way onto a top-five list for most feared coverage corners this year, but the 24-year-old could easily start knocking on that door as soon as 2026.

 Las Vegas
Player Pos Age 25 Cov 25 Run Cov Grade Run D Grade
Maxx Crosby ED 27 8.5 66.1 73.5
Christian Wilkins DI 29 7.7 53.0 80.2
Adam Butler DI 31 5.1 70.5 48.3
Malcolm Koonce ED 27 6.5
Germaine Pratt LB 29 6.3 6.8 53.4 70.1
Elandon Roberts LB 31 5.2 8.6 49.6 91.0
Darien Porter # CB 24 6.1 5.8
Eric Stokes CB 26 6.3 5.4 62.4 50.8
Darnay Holmes Slot 27 5.4 4.4 49.5 70.7
Jeremy Chinn S 27 6.2 6.3 64.5 64.7
Isaiah Pola-Mao S 25 5.4 6.1 45.1 72.4
Rotational Players 40.9 71.2
JJ Pegues # DI 23
Leki Fotu DI 26 38.1
Tyree Wilson ED 25 66.9 72.4
Charles Snowden ED 27 55.8 72.1
Devin White LB 27 62.4 58.4
Jakorian Bennett CB 24 61.0 42.2
Decamerion Richardson CB 24 42.2 60.5
Lonnie Johnson Jr. S 29 46.5 65.1

DC: Patrick Graham (fourth year)

Run: The Raiders were right around the league average in run defense, which is an impressive feat considering Wilkins missed 12 games and Crosby sat out five. Pegues and Fotu provide solid depth in case Wilkins misses time again or Butler does not pick up his play in a big way. Of course, Crosby is what ties this entire defense together. He was also not healthy for most of the year. Simply having Wilkins and Crosby healthy this year should result in a run defense that pushes for a top-10 finish. However, losing LB Robert Spillane to the Patriots will hurt against the run.

Who to target in the passing game: The pass rush should be good enough to make the secondary look better than it is, but there is not a defensive back in this group that should be considered a daunting matchup … at least not yet.

Who to avoid in the passing game: Losing Nate Hobbs to Green Bay removed the one cornerback from Las Vegas who could have fit into this section. As a whole, the Raiders' secondary is probably a bit better this year with the additions of Porter and Chinn. Unfortunately, Porter is a third-round rookie and Chinn has struggled to stay healthy since joining the NFL in 2020.

 LA Chargers
Player Pos Age 25 Cov 25 Run Cov Grade Run D Grade
Khalil Mack ED 34 8.3 80.3 87.7
Da'Shawn Hand DI 29 6.4 59.5 61.8
Teair Tart DI 28 6.8 66.0 70.3
Tuli Tuipulotu ED 22 7.1 56.9 65.3
Daiyan Henley LB 25 7.7 6.7 71.3 65.0
Junior Colson LB 22 5.8 6.4 32.2 54.9
Tarheeb Still Slot 23 7.7 6.7 74.8 69.1
Donte Jackson CB 29 5.8 5.8 45.1 74.5
Cam Hart CB 24 6.5 6.0 58.1 65.9
Alohi Gilman S 27 6.8 6.8 64.5 66.5
Derwin James Jr. S 28 7.8 8.9 76.3 87.9
Rotational Players 48.1 75.9
Otito Ogbonnia DI 24 59.9 45.2
Naquan Jones DI 27 60.0 60.3
Jamaree Caldwell # DI 24
Bud Dupree ED 32 63.1 48.5
Kyle Kennard # ED 23
Denzel Perryman LB 32 61.9 54.1
Benjamin St-Juste CB 27 46.5 57.7
Ja'Sir Taylor CB 26 57.7 62.9
Elijah Molden S 26 75.4 71.5

DC: Jesse Minter (second year)

Run: Los Angeles was middle of the pack in run defense (14th) but was among the worst on a per-carry basis (4.7, 27th). There is a good chance the Chargers fail to improve on either of those rankings in 2025 after letting NT Poona Ford sign with the Rams, although the 340-pound Caldwell may end up plugging the middle of the line better than Tart. The team loves Henley and Colson at linebacker, so someone other than Mack needs to step up against the run up front.

Who to target in the passing game: Jackson started his career well in Carolina from 2018-20, but his coverage grades have been mostly average at best since. While he did intercept a career-high five passes with Pittsburgh last season, he also gave up four touchdowns and 13.4 yards per reception. His play really fell off at the end of the season when he allowed all 10 targets in his coverage to be caught for 147 yards and two scores. There has to be some concern in Los Angeles that the Chargers will not be able to put the same amount of pressure on the quarterback as Pittsburgh did, thereby potentially exposing Jackson.

Who to avoid in the passing game: Still has not quite reached star status yet, but his rookie season was everything the Chargers could have hoped for and more from a fifth-round pick. While he did allow 582 yards and a 65.3-percent catch rate in his coverage, he also picked off four passes versus allowing three touchdowns across 14 games. He should be considered a problem for some non-elite receivers in fantasy. The combination of Gilman and James should keep Los Angeles safely inside the group of teams that should stifle tight end production in 2025.

 Miami
Player Pos Age 25 Cov 25 Run Cov Grade Run D Grade
Bradley Chubb ED 29 6.5
Zach Sieler DI 29 7.0 69.0 70.0
Kenneth Grant # DI 21 5.8
Jaelan Phillips ED 26 6.5 60.4 67.5
Jordyn Brooks LB 27 5.9 7.2 55.1 83.0
Tyrel Dodson LB 27 7.9 5.8 82.9 47.0
Jason Marshall Jr. # CB 22 5.8 5.1
Storm Duck CB 24 5.2 6.0 54.8 56.8
Kader Kohou CB 26 6.2 6.4 68.9 51.2
Minkah Fitzpatrick S 28 6.8 7.2 64.9 69.5
Ifeatu Melifonwu S 26 6.5 6.1 58.4 51.1
Rotational Players 44.3 69.6
Jordan Phillips # DI 20
Benito Jones DI 27 53.0 47.6
Chop Robinson ED 21 52.4 55.4
K.J. Britt LB 26 40.9 57.3
Willie Gay LB 27 35.9 55.5
Cam Smith CB 24 30.1 70.9
Ashtyn Davis S 28 67.8 73.4
Dante Trader Jr.# S 22

DC: Anthony Weaver (second year)

Run: Weaver did well to get out of this defense what he did in his first year, especially minus Chubb and Phillips. Losing Calais Campbell to Arizona will hurt a great deal. However, the addition of Grant - along with the healthy returns of Phillips and Chubb - may make up for it. Despite Brooks' run defense grade last year, the linebacker group is not an overly impressive one, so Grant and the underrated Sieler will need to be as stout as possible as often as possible for the Dolphins to remain an average run-stopping unit.

Who to target in the passing game: Following the June 30 trade of Jalen Ramsey to the Steelers, it will be up to the pass rush to make some combination of Duck, Marshall, Smith and Kohou at cornerback look good. While no one can say for certain that it will be open season on Miami cornerbacks, Kohou is the only projected starter who has achieved some degree of success in the league. Kohou has played primarily in the slot for most of his three-year NFL career, which means perimeter receivers should be upgraded against Miami until further notice.

Who to avoid in the passing game: Fitzpatrick will likely grade out higher than what I am projecting. Quarterbacks will also probably avoid him more often than not, but that will have less to do with his ability and more to do with what the limited or inexperienced resources Miami has at cornerback this season.

 New England
Player Pos Age 25 Cov 25 Run Cov Grade Run D Grade
Harold Landry III ED 29 7.2 74.7 82.2
Milton Williams DI 26 6.6 62.0 41.0
Christian Barmore DI 25 6.0 60.0 56.9
Keion White ED 26 6.2 63.6 55.3
Robert Spillane LB 29 5.2 8.3 48.8 87.3
Christian Elliss LB 26 6.2 7.2 66.1 70.1
Christian Gonzalez CB 23 8.5 6.4 78.2 59.2
Carlton Davis III CB 28 7.6 7.0 72.1 77.7
Marcus Jones CB 26 7.1 7.8 67.1 88.2
Jabrill Peppers S 29 7.7 8.2 81.7 74.7
Kyle Dugger S 29 4.5 6.8 34.8 59.7
Rotational Players 46.8 77.7
Joshua Farmer # DI 22
Anfernee Jennings ED 27 54.1 73.0
K'Lavon Chaisson ED 25 43.5 59.5
Jahlani Tavai LB 28 42.7 63.7
Marte Mapu LB 25 62.7 57.7
Craig Woodson # S 24
Jaylinn Hawkins S 27 56.3 69.3

DC: Terrell Williams (first year)

Run: The Patriots had a strong offseason, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. While Milton Williams is more of a force against the pass than the run, he can be better than he was at the latter last season. The same probably applies to Barmore, who lost most of last season to blood clot issues. Landry has long been solid against the run and White will reportedly be used more like a true defensive end this year instead of a hybrid defensive tackle. The addition of Farmer gives New England some necessary beef. It all bodes well for Spillane, who was one of the best run-stopping linebackers in the league during his two-year stint in Las Vegas.

Who to target in the passing game: Given how strong New England's starting cornerback duo looks right now, fantasy managers should expect offenses to spend a lot of time throwing to running backs and short-range tight ends. Coverage is not the forte of Spillane or Elliss. Jones has been a fine slot defender over his three seasons with the Patriots and represents an easier matchup for opposing pass-catchers than Gonzalez or Davis, so expect teams to throw in his direction as well.

Who to avoid in the passing game: The new regime has not given any indication whether they plan on using Gonzalez as a shadow, but it should be assumed they will at times. Even if they do not, Davis spent most of his career as the Bucs' top cornerback. When healthy, the 28-year-old should be expected to be one of the best No. 2 cornerbacks in the league. The bulk of receivers who operate mostly on the perimeter should be expected to struggle against New England.

 N.Y. Jets
Player Pos Age 25 Cov 25 Run Cov Grade Run D Grade
Will McDonald IV ED 26 5.5 60.1 39.5
Quinnen Williams DI 27 8.1 64.6 57.5
Derrick Nnadi DI 29 5.0 57.7 45.7
Jermaine Johnson ED 26 6.8 62.1 40.4
Quincy Williams LB 28 6.9 7.6 61.0 74.3
Jamien Sherwood LB 25 7.6 7.4 66.2 77.1
Sauce Gardner CB 24 8.8 6.2 73.1 53.6
Brandon Stephens CB 27 5.4 6.9 49.4 66.6
Michael Carter II Slot 26 7.7 6.5 47.9 63.9
Andre Cisco S 25 7.0 6.7 56.7 63.7
Tony Adams S 26 6.8 6.2 67.5 59.4
Rotational Players 50.2 72.9
Byron Cowart DI 29 58.7 60.1
Jay Tufele DI 25 55.3 42.0
Micheal Clemons ED 27 70.4 46.6
Eric Watts ED 24 78.7 72.1
Azareye'h Thomas # CB 20
Qwan'tez Stiggers CB 23 54.8 68.4
Malachi Moore # S 23

DC: Steve Wilks (first year)

Run: The grades above do not reflect how good the Jets actually were against the run in 2024 or how good they could be in 2025. While the loss of retired LB C.J. Mosley will likely hurt, he only played in four games last year and never seemed to live up to the standard he set as a Raven over his first five seasons. Considering how stout Detroit was against the run during new HC Aaron Glenn's time there as a defensive coordinator, expect New York to be more than the sum of its parts in that area. Although Nnadi, Cowart and Tufele are not massive men who have a reputation as run stoppers, each of them brings much-needed girth that the Jets did not have a year ago.

Who to target in the passing game: Opting to let CB D.J. Reed walk in favor of Stephens was an interesting choice by the new regime and one that could make one of the tougher secondaries to face in the NFL in recent years a less daunting challenge. With Baltimore last season, Stephens allowed players in his coverage a catch rate of 67.9 percent and five touchdowns (versus no interceptions). It would not be overly shocking if he loses his job to Thomas at some point, despite the fact that he signed a three-year, $36 million contract in the offseason.

Who to avoid in the passing game: If Glenn's time with the Lions was any indication, the Jets will play more man defense than they have in years. However, that should not change how much most offenses will try to avoid Gardner. While certainly not on the level of Gardner, Carter appears to be fully healthy again after a back injury made him a shell of himself in 2024. He has occasionally been one of the stingier slot corners in the league.

 Pittsburgh
Player Pos Age 25 Cov 25 Run Cov Grade Run D Grade
T.J. Watt ED 30 9.1 70.0 90.3
Cameron Heyward DI 36 7.6 61.8 79.6
Derrick Harmon # DI 21 6.2
Alex Highsmith ED 27 8.0 79.8 78.3
Patrick Queen LB 25 6.3 6.0 54.3 53.1
Payton Wilson LB 25 7.8 6.7 77.3 62.0
Jalen Ramsey Star 30 7.8 8.0 71.9 85.7
Joey Porter Jr. CB 24 7.4 5.8 56.3 55.4
Darius Slay CB 34 7.2 5.5 75.5 58.1
DeShon Elliott S 28 6.6 8.0 63.3 83.9
Juan Thornhill S 29 7.0 6.6 64.5 61.7
Rotational Players 50.1 77.5
Keeanu Benton DI 23 76.1 47.4
Daniel Ekuale DI 31 64.5 62.7
Yahya Black # DI 23
Nick Herbig ED 23 47.9 48.2
Jack Sawyer # ED 23
Malik Harrison LB 27 29.9 69.7
Beanie Bishop Jr. CB 25 57.1 55.8
Brandin Echols CB 27 61.2 40.1

DC: Teryl Austin (fourth year)

Run: Pittsburgh's run defense was much better than it has been given credit for this offseason, largely because most people only seem to remember the 220 yards the Steelers allowed to the Ravens in Week 16 and the 299 yards they gave up in the Wild Card Round. Even accounting for those poor performances, Pittsburgh ranked sixth in run defense and yards allowed per carry. The Steelers used their first-round pick on Harmon to replace the 31-year-old Larry Ogunjobi in hopes he can become the new Heyward. Assuming Harmon can bring anything close in 2025 to what Heyward has brought for a decade, the Steelers should take their usual place among the stingiest rush defenses in the league. Watt, Highsmith and Wilson are all very good or great against the run.

Who to target in the passing game: Slay probably gets a bit too much pub for being one of the league's best corners, but it is hard to ignore the stellar catch rate he allowed with the Eagles last year (51.7 percent). Nevertheless, he is not a corner fantasy managers should avoid as much as a player quarterbacks need to be aware of every time they drop back. The surprising weakness in Pittsburgh's secondary in 2024 was at safety, as S Minkah Fitzpatrick gave up a career-high five touchdowns in his coverage and Elliott got beat for three more. The Steelers have struggled against tight ends for two straight years, so it will not hurt the team to try something different.

Who to avoid in the passing game: It remains to be seen what the Steelers have in mind for Ramsey, but a good guess would be to serve in the "star" role he occupied with the Rams. (In Los Angeles, he was asked to extinguish whatever fire needed to be put out in a given week, whether that meant locking down a tight end, perimeter receiver or slot receiver.) Porter was not able to take the next step following a brilliant rookie season, but that does not mean he had a bad year. He continued to do his fair share of shadowing while only surrendering one touchdown in his coverage. The 66.7-percent catch rate he yielded was not ideal, but the fact that he did not allow a TD catch over his final 13 games should give fantasy managers some pause when their alpha receivers face Pittsburgh.

 Tennessee
Player Pos Age 25 Cov 25 Run Cov Grade Run D Grade
Jeffery Simmons ED 27 7.8 57.7 73.0
T'Vondre Sweat DI 23 8.0 66.1 75.0
Sebastian Joseph-Day DI 30 7.1 60.7 77.7
Dre'Mont Jones ED 28 5.6 37.7 45.5
Cody Barton LB 28 5.6 6.8 52.8 76.9
Otis Reese IV LB 26 6.3 5.6 56.7 54.2
L'Jarius Sneed CB 28 7.0 6.2 36.8 57.7
Jarvis Brownlee Jr. CB 23 6.3 7.4 55.9 77.7
Roger McCreary Slot 25 6.6 7.3 58.4 71.2
Amani Hooker S 27 6.8 6.2 66.3 58.4
Xavier Woods S 29 6.6 6.6 55.4 59.7
Rotational Players 45.2 74.6
James Lynch DI 26 59.7 60.7
Arden Key ED 29 62.1 69.0
Lorenzo Carter ED 29 40.3 53.6
Oluwafemi Oladejo # ED 21
Cedric Gray LB 22 45.0 43.5
Darrell Baker Jr. CB 27 62.8 72.7
Amani Oruwariye CB 29 63.9 47.4
Kevin Winston Jr. # S 21

DC: Dennard Wilson (second year)

Run: Tennessee had issues offensively, which led to a high number of rush attempts against its defense (503). The Titans also were not great at stopping it regardless, tied for 18th in yards allowed per carry (4.5). Tennessee should be much better this year simply because Sweat will have had another year in the NFL and Simmons will have a healthy arm (reportedly tore his left UCL in late September). Wilson should also have better players available to him at inside linebacker in 2025 with Barton (free agent from Denver) and Reese (three games in 2024) expected to replace Ernest Jones (traded after Week 7 last year) and Kenneth Murray (poor run defense grades in each of the last four seasons).

Who to target in the passing game: Since Sneed will likely be asked to shadow the most obvious alpha receivers, Brownlee will likely get picked on a lot after a mostly average rookie season. From Week 7-17, he allowed 45 of 61 targets to be completed in his coverage for 606 yards and four touchdowns versus one interception.

Who to avoid in the passing game: Sneed was acquired to be a shadow corner last offseason, then spent most of the regular season battling through what was thought to be a quad bruise but was later found to be a strain requiring a bone marrow injection and a period of wearing a leg brace. With that said, he was not grading out well before the injury. Nevertheless, Sneed was too good for too long in Kansas City to believe he is not still an above-average corner who likely just suffered due to a lack of pass-rushing talent up front. The same can probably be said of McCreary.


Doug Orth has served as an analyst for FF Today since 2006 and joined the Fantasy Points team before the start of the 2024 season. He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who has not experienced a losing money season in any of his 25 years in this hobby. Please check him out on "The Football Diehards" podcast - courtesy of Full Time Fantasy - on Wednesday nights with co-host JJ Wenner.





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