Sometime between the end of the preseason and the first week of
the season, fantasy managers and analysts alike shift gears from
not caring one iota about their players' matchups to making it
their primary consideration when setting about 70 percent of their
lineup. A tough three- or four-game stretch for a player at the
beginning or end of the season should not surprise anyone who
calls watching or analyzing football their job, yet many are shocked
to learn some of their players open the season with three of their
first five or six games against likely top 10 pass or rush defenses.
THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF FANTASY ANALYSTS DO NOT CONSIDER
DEFENSIVE MATCHUPS WHEN CREATING PROJECTIONS.
There is a distinct reason I do this year after year (and I think
it has been instrumental in why I have yet to lose money in any
single year since I began playing in money leagues 25 years ago):
it matters.
Defense may not matter as much as it used to, but it is a mistake
not to account for it at all. Doing so suggests a belief that
NFL games are like seven-on-seven drills. I realized as early
as 2004 that I did not like the idea of my players having to face
the Ravens or the Steelers, especially during the fantasy playoffs.
Certainly, my approach has evolved significantly from that initial
premise, but I think my track record of success speaks for itself
and suggests there is substantial value in putting some weight
into "the matchup." The key is giving potential matchups
the proper amount of weight to a player's evaluation. By itself,
a matchup will not transform an every-week RB3 into an RB1 or
turn a perennial WR1 into a bench option, but it is helpful for
fantasy managers trying to find weekly and even season-long values
and avoid potential busts.
That brings us to our focus for the next two weeks. With defenses
operating out of sub-packages (nickel, dime, quarter, etc.) around
75 percent of the time in today's game, it makes sense to use
their likely sub-package personnel as the basis for matchup analysis.
Furthermore, it helps to have an understanding of how each veteran
defensive player who will be playing in those packages graded
out and/or performed last year. With the help of sites like Fantasy
Points, Pro Football Focus and Pro Football Reference, we can
do that.
Defense is a team endeavor, so the process is never as easy as
spotting a player with a weakness and having an offense exploit
that matchup repeatedly. An important part of coaching in any
sport is the ability to maximize players' strengths and mask their
weaknesses; players either will get help from the scheme or be
benched if they continue to struggle. Nevertheless, the goal of
any good offense is to isolate the weak link in the passing defense
as often as possible or take advantage of what may be a "soft"
run defense (assuming that matches up with the run-blocking ability
of the offensive line). It is also important to understand that
no defender lines up across any offensive player on every play,
so we are playing odds here as opposed to dealing with virtual
certainties (i.e., the few shadow cornerbacks that exist usually
only "shadow" about 50-60 percent of the time).
The color-coding in this two-part series is based on
last year only because we have no information about this
season. Last year's color codes help set the stage for this year.
Film analysis and advanced analytics help us predict what may
happen.
Each team table below will contain more than 11 players. Projected
starters will have projected grades next to their ages, but the
rotational players will not because I want the final projected
scores (coverage and run defense) for each team to reflect the
defenders logging the most snaps. Much as I did for the
offensive line piece two weeks ago, I will rank each team
in terms of projected coverage, pass rush and run defense scores
next week.
The purpose of this article is simple, even if the execution
of it is not: attempting to identify what defenders present fantasy
owners with an opportunity for success. There is a heavy amount
of subjectivity that goes into my color-coding matchups in advance
of the Big Board. I hope that this process reduces some of that
and gives readers a look under the hood, so to speak.
Key:
Green box - Player graded 80 or higher in that
particular discipline per PFF (100-point scale) Blue box - Player graded between 70 or 79.9 in
that particular discipline Yellow box - Player graded between 60 or 69.9
in that particular discipline Red box - Player graded 59.9 or lower in that
particular discipline Black box - Player did not log a snap in the
NFL snap or the discipline does not apply to his position
Italic (player name) - Likely (but potentially
important) rotational player # - Rookie
- Currently injured
25 Cov - Projected 2025 coverage grade 25 Run - Projected 2025 run defense grade Grades - Coverage (Cov) and run defense (Run
D)
** NEW THIS YEAR ** I have listed cornerbacks in the order
I believe they stand on the depth chart. For example, I am projecting
Jaire Alexander and Marlon Humphrey to start and log the most
snaps for Baltimore if they stay healthy. When the Ravens need
three corners, Alexander and Nate Wiggins will play outside and
Humphrey will move inside.
Baltimore
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Kyle Van Noy
ED
35
6.6
65.3
68.4
Nnamdi Madubuike
DI
27
6.3
62.6
64.3
Travis Jones
DI
25
6.9
60.5
72.0
Odafe Oweh
ED
26
6.4
69.9
64.6
Roquan Smith
LB
28
7.4
7.2
62.6
69.7
Trenton Simpson
LB
24
5.9
6.5
55.3
63.2
Jaire Alexander
CB
28
8.2
6.1
78.3
57.8
Marlon Humphrey
Slot
28
7.7
7.6
81.0
70.4
Nate Wiggins
CB
21
7.3
7.4
69.0
84.5
Malaki Starks #
S
21
7.9
6.3
Kyle Hamilton
S
24
8.6
8.8
88.4
89.2
Rotational Players
53.0
76.1
Broderick Washington
DI
28
61.4
48.6
Mike Green #
ED
21
David Ojabo
ED
25
44.3
58.6
Teddye Buchanan #
LB
22
Chidobe Awuzie
CB
30
58.4
80.4
T.J. Tampa
CB
23
55.3
44.9
Sanoussi Kane
S
23
64.6
69.3
DC: Zach Orr (second year)
Run: The Ravens boasted the league's top run
defense in terms of yards and yards per carry allowed last season.
Every key front-seven defender from that defense is back in 2025
except for retired NT Michael Pierce. As we have come to expect
from teams like Baltimore, the Ravens prepared for this eventuality
three years ago when they spent a third-round pick on Jones. They
also fortified their depth this spring by adding the well-traveled
Jenkins. Even age is not a problem for Baltimore, as Van Noy is
the only front-seven defender above who is older than 28.
Who to target in the passing game: Wiggins will
be tested the most, almost by default, since a healthy Alexander
is probably no worse than one of the top 10 cornerbacks in the
league. The same might actually be true for Humphrey as well.
Who to avoid in the passing game: Teams will
likely test Starks early in the season, but that is unlikely to
go well after the first month. Between him and Hamilton, tight
ends and vertical receivers should have their hands full producing
against the Ravens. Humphrey gave up three touchdowns in his coverage
last season, which was two more than the previous two seasons
combined. As the defender who typically lines up inside against
three-wide sets in Baltimore, Humphrey figures to make Baltimore
a difficult matchup for slot receivers again in 2025.
Buffalo
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Joey Bosa
ED
29
6.5
60.5
67.4
Ed Oliver
DI
27
5.3
74.3
50.4
DaQuan Jones
DI
33
5.7
67.2
53.4
Greg Rousseau
ED
25
7.1
71.6
69.8
Matt Milano
LB
30
6.7
6.1
45.1
59.6
Terrel Bernard
LB
26
5.0
6.5
37.7
64.0
Christian Benford
CB
24
8.4
7.3
78.6
71.3
Maxwell Hairston #
CB
21
6.2
5.8
Taron Johnson
Slot
28
6.8
6.3
55.9
70.1
Taylor Rapp
S
27
5.6
8.1
43.2
86.0
Damar Hamlin
S
27
5.8
6.7
41.5
72.2
Rotational Players
44.5
71.4
T.J. Sanders #
DI
21
A.J. Epenesa
ED
26
62.2
61.6
Landon Jackson #
ED
22
Shaq Thompson
LB
31
62.9
73.2
Dorian Williams
LB
24
39.1
74.2
Tre'Davious White
CB
30
54.8
52.6
Cole Bishop
S
22
48.7
56.7
DC: Bobby Babich (second year)
Run: The Bills ranked about middle of the pack in defending the
run from a total-yardage and yards-per-carry allowed basis. While
the addition of 336-pound Deone Walker (2025 fourth-round draft
pick) suggests that Buffalo realizes it needs more beef up front,
one big body probably will not be enough to fix what has been
a problem for a while. Unlike Baltimore above, the Bills usually
need to play in positive game script to avoid being exposed by
run-heavy teams. Then again, a healthy Milano would be a huge
step in the right direction. He has been limited to nine games
combined over the last two seasons.
Who to target in the passing game: Johnson struggled in the slot
a year ago after three straight strong seasons inside. He will
probably be the corner that opponents target the most once Hairston
settles into being a pro. Speaking of the rookie, Hairston will
likely be the fastest player on the field more often than not,
but it could take him a while before he can handle bigger NFL
receivers.
Who to avoid in the passing game: Benford has quickly emerged
as one of the league's top corners. He will shadow on occasion
and is one of the few corners in the league who fantasy managers
need to fear when all but the most elite receivers face the Bills.
Rapp and Hamlin may not strike the same fear into opponents that
Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer used to, but Buffalo has historically
been very good against tight ends and deep-threat receivers because
HC Sean McDermott believes strongly in keeping two safeties back
and making offenses nickel-and-dime their way down the field.
There is no reason to expect that to change in 2025.
Cincinnati
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Trey Hendrickson
ED
30
6.2
59.5
65.9
B.J. Hill
DI
30
6.5
63.3
69.2
T.J. Slaton
DI
27
5.1
56.0
44.0
Joseph Ossai
ED
25
5.5
59.0
57.0
Logan Wilson
LB
28
6.0
8.3
57.0
90.0
Demetrius Knight Jr. #
LB
24
5.8
6.7
Cam Taylor-Britt
CB
25
6.5
6.0
64.3
68.4
DJ Turner II
CB
24
6.6
5.4
68.4
57.1
Dax Hill
Slot
24
6.1
7.1
68.0
66.0
Geno Stone
S
26
6.5
4.8
53.7
45.5
Jordan Battle
S
24
5.9
6.3
53.0
59.0
Rotational Players
43.4
67.9
Kris Jenkins
DI
23
52.4
46.6
McKinnley Jackson
DI
23
65.5
53.1
Shemar Stewart #
ED
21
Myles Murphy
ED
23
69.6
48.6
Oren Burks
LB
30
82.4
77.1
Josh Newton
CB
24
60.9
57.9
DJ Ivey
CB
25
52.5
68.1
Tycen Anderson
S
26
60.7
DC: Al Golden (first year)
Run: The Bengals were a middle-of-the-pack run defense in 2024.
It is hard to imagine they will not be among the worst rush defenses
in 2025. Hendrickson is unhappy (at least for now), DE Sam Hubbard
retired and LB Germaine Pratt was let go in mid-June. Wilson is
a stud against the run, but even the best linebackers need protection
from their linemen. Slaton and Hill possess the size to be forces
against the run, but it has been a while since either player graded
well in that area. Jenkins should be a very good player at some
point, but he figures to be much better as an interior pass rusher.
Who to target in the passing game: Take your pick. Taylor-Britt
has the goods to be a top-20 corner in the league, but he is coming
off a year in which he gave up 10 touchdown catches in his coverage
(he allowed five in his first two seasons combined). The Bengals
have viewed Hill as their long-term answer in the slot for a while,
but they are operating without a safety net there after letting
Mike Hilton go. Things could get ugly against slot receivers quickly
if Hill goes down as he did last year.
Who to avoid in the passing game: N/A
Cleveland
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Myles Garrett
ED
29
8.0
65.2
78.4
Mason Graham #
DI
21
5.3
Maliek Collins
DI
30
4.6
66.7
42.8
Isaiah McGuire
ED
23
7.8
58.4
86.1
Carson Schwesinger #
LB
22
7.5
6.6
Jordan Hicks
LB
33
7.2
8.0
70.0
77.7
Denzel Ward
CB
28
7.2
6.0
68.9
61.1
Martin Emerson Jr.
CB
24
6.2
6.2
48.4
55.8
Greg Newsome II
Slot
25
6.4
5.5
54.0
52.1
Grant Delpit
S
26
6.6
6.6
60.9
67.3
Ronnie Hickman Jr.
S
23
7.5
7.4
71.3
81.7
Rotational Players
48.6
72.0
Michael Hall Jr.
DI
22
61.0
67.8
Shelby Harris
DI
33
60.5
67.9
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka
ED
26
63.3
50.2
Julian Okwara
ED
27
46.9
69.9
Jerome Baker
LB
28
60.7
65.7
Cameron Mitchell
CB
23
55.3
44.3
Rayshawn Jenkins
S
31
58.0
42.8
Damontae Kazee
S
32
56.4
73.6
DC: Jim Schwartz (third year)
Run: Cleveland has been a middling run defense since Schwartz
arrived before the start of the 2023 season, although it could
be argued that he has not had a disruptor like Graham up front
since he joined the Browns. Between Graham and Harris, Cleveland
should be stingier against running games than it was last year.
It would also help the run defense's cause if the offense carried
its weight more often. While this year's offense probably will
not be very explosive, it will probably do a much better job of
not hanging the defense out to dry (faced an average of 29 rush
attempts last year). The team will miss LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
(neck), however.
Who to target in the passing game: Fair or not, Newsome has been
considered the weak link of the secondary in recent years since
Emerson proved to be an undrafted free-agent gem. Meanwhile, teams
targeted Newsome to avoid Ward. Newsome also struggled to stay
healthy (again) in 2024. While Emerson is a good candidate to
bounce back given his track record, opponents will happily continue
to wear out Newsome in the slot because he so rarely makes them
regret it (three interceptions in four NFL seasons).
Who to avoid in the passing game: Ward led the league with 19
passes defensed and only allowed a catch rate of 53.5 percent
on targets in his coverage. While his star seems to be fading
a bit at age 28, he is still not a matchup fantasy managers want
their receiver to see. With Schwesinger likely to become a three-down
player right away, opposing running backs could be in for a long
day in the passing game. The former walk-on moves like a safety
and is a player who should be able to run with all but the most
athletic tight ends.
Denver
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Nik Bonitto
ED
25
6.3
92.6
59.1
Zach Allen
DI
27
6.1
60.7
50.5
John Franklin-Myers
DI
28
6
68.8
52.5
Jonathon Cooper
ED
27
7.1
54.6
69.6
Alex Singleton
LB
31
5.6
7.8
53.5
73.5
Dre Greenlaw
LB
28
7.5
7.7
63.5
85
Pat Surtain II
CB
25
8.8
8
85.1
81.8
Riley Moss
CB
25
6.7
6.2
56.9
59.2
Jahdae Barron #
Slot
23
7.3
6.7
Brandon Jones
S
27
8.5
7
89.8
72.4
Talanoa Hufanga
S
26
7.9
6.9
52.4
74.5
Rotational Players
52.3
75.8
D.J. Jones
DI
30
49.3
64.6
Malcolm Roach
DI
27
61.2
56.6
Jonah Elliss
ED
22
28.7
64.7
Sai'vion Jones #
ED
21
Justin Strnad
LB
28
50.4
50.5
Drew Sanders
LB
23
42
54.8
Kris Abrams-Draine
CB
23
74.7
68.6
P.J. Locke
S
28
50.7
50.4
DC: Vance Joseph (third year)
Run: Despite the less-than-impressive run defense
grades above - especially along the defensive line - the Broncos
finished third in the league in run defense (total yards) and
second in yards allowed per carry (3.9). Allen has emerged as
a dominant force and draws his fair share of double teams. As
long as he is healthy, Denver will usually be able to create chaos
since Joseph likes to blitz as much as any defensive coordinator.
While its PFF run defense grades might not suggest it, Denver
could be even better against the run after swapping out Cody Barton
for Greenlaw, who only played in two games for the 49ers last
season after tearing his Achilles in the Super Bowl the year before.
If he is all the way back and the defensive line stays healthy,
the Broncos should be even more dominant against the run.
Who to target in the passing game: It is not
so much that Moss should be the player who offenses should target,
it is more that he is the least of all the evils on Denver's defense.
Quarterbacks already know they are not going to make a living
trying to beat Surtain. Moss will give up some plays this year
because he will be targeted so much, but fantasy managers should
not make the mistake of assuming he is an easy matchup. He could
be one of the best No. 2 cornerbacks in the league by season's
end.
Who to avoid in the passing game: The fantasy
industry sometimes makes the mistake of believing a player can
be a shutdown corner. In today's game, that is nearly impossible.
Surtain gave up 40 catches on a 72.7-percent catch rate and two
touchdowns in his coverage last year. What made him so good was
that he was only targeted 55 times and intercepted four passes
despite predominantly lining up across the other team's best receiver.
While a date against Denver does not automatically mean an alpha
receiver is going to get erased by Surtain, it usually means it
will be a slow day at the office. After adding Hufanga to Jones
at safety, fantasy managers should probably expect tight ends
facing the Broncos to struggle in 2025 as well. Barron may struggle
inside initially, but he should be one of the tougher matchups
for slot receivers by the end of the year as well.
Houston
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Danielle Hunter
ED
30
6.8
71.1
73.2
Folorunso Fatukasi
DI
30
5.5
65.7
33.9
Tim Settle
DI
27
5
64.7
45.3
Will Anderson Jr.
ED
23
8
85.9
78.8
Azeez Al-Shaair
LB
27
6
8.4
56.5
82.7
Henry To'oTo'o
LB
24
5.8
7.5
55.2
70.4
Derek Stingley Jr.
CB
24
8.8
5.5
84.4
55.9
Kamari Lassiter
CB
22
8
6.3
77.5
60.8
Jalen Pitre
Slot
26
6.7
6.5
71.3
79.5
Calen Bullock
S
22
5.6
7.2
36.2
77.9
C.J. Gardner-Johnson
S
27
7.7
6
85.7
59.6
Rotational Players
48.6
72.7
Mario Edwards Jr.
DI
31
65.7
45.7
Sheldon Rankins
DI
31
71.2
46.2
Denico Autry
ED
34
56.4
54.1
Derek Barnett
ED
29
60
73.9
E.J. Speed
LB
30
46.3
71.5
Christian Harris
LB
24
39.4
53
Jaylin Smith #
CB
21
Jimmie Ward
S
33
73.9
75.6
DC: Matt Burke (third year)
Run: Were it not for the 251 rushing yards they surrendered to
the Ravens on Christmas Day, the Texans would have likely finished
much higher than just a borderline top-10 rush defense. Houston
returns most of the key front-seven players from last season and
may have improved a bit at linebacker if Speed beats out To'oTo'o
for a starting job and/or Harris stays healthy. It is worth noting
in the four seasons since head coach DeMeco Ryans landed his first
defensive coordinator job in 2021 (with the 49ers) that his teams
have never finished lower than 11th in rushing yardage or rushing
yards-per-carry allowed.
Who to target in the passing game: Considering how good Stingley
and Lassiter graded (primarily outside the numbers), it should
come as no surprise that the slot is where most teams attacked
Houston. Pitre is a safety who is versatile enough to guard receivers
in the slot, but it stands to reason that opposing quarterbacks
would rest easier throwing in his direction than a couple of full-time
corners.
Who to avoid in the passing game: While Patrick Surtain II won
the league's Defensive Player of the Year honors in 2024, Stingley
was arguably more dominant. He allowed only 45.3 percent of the
95 passes thrown in his coverage to be completed and intercepted
more throws (five) than he allowed touchdowns (four). The primary
difference between the two stud corners is that Stingley did not
travel with the other team's best receiver very often. Lassiter
was slightly more forgiving than Stingley, yielding a catch rate
of only 45.2 percent. The Texans were above average defending
the tight end a year ago, but they could be a downright awful
matchup for them this year as long as Gardner-Johnson stays healthy.
Indianapolis
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Laiatu Latu
ED
24
6.6
49.9
62.3
DeForest Buckner
DI
31
7
61.2
73.9
Grover Stewart
DI
31
7.4
60.8
78.7
Kwity Paye
ED
26
7.1
69.8
67.4
Zaire Franklin
LB
28
5.4
7.4
47.7
72.3
Jaylon Carlies
LB
23
7.2
5.6
83.1
54.6
Charvarius Ward
CB
29
7.8
7.1
58.2
48.4
Jaylon Jones
CB
23
7
6.4
67.9
62.4
Kenny Moore II
Slot
29
7.4
7.5
68.2
71.8
Camryn Bynum
S
26
6.3
7
58.6
67.8
Nick Cross
S
23
6.8
8.1
64.3
80.2
Rotational Players
47.9
77.2
Neville Gallimore
DI
28
60
47.1
JT Tuimoloau #
ED
22
Tyquan Lewis
ED
30
63.4
70.4
Cameron McGrone
LB
25
60
Justin Walley #
CB
22
Samuel Womack III
CB
25
71.3
64.3
Daniel Scott
S
26
Rodney Thomas II
S
27
57.8
56.1
DC: Lou Anarumo (first year)
Run: Last year, the Colts were one of those several teams every
year that were respectable at stopping the run (4.2 yards per
carry allowed) but finished in the bottom 10 of rush defense because
opponents were able to run so often against them (531 attempts,
second most in the league). With the exception of losing LB E.J.
Speed to Houston in free agency, the front seven remains mostly
intact. The key for Indianapolis being better against the run
in 2025 is Buckner staying on the field after an ankle injury
caused him to miss five games a season ago.
Who to target in the passing game: Much like Riley Moss in Denver,
Jones probably is not someone to target in fantasy as much as
he is someone who will be targeted because of his teammate on
the other side of the field. Jones did well to allow only one
touchdown in his coverage in 2024 after giving up six as a rookie,
but it is telling that he allowed 64.7 percent of the throws in
his coverage to be completed for 727 yards (10th most in the league)
and 13.4 yards per catch (tied for 16th most for full-time cornerbacks).
Who to avoid in the passing game: It has been a few years since
the Colts had someone opposing receivers had to respect at outside
cornerback. They have one now in Ward, who had a season to forget
on and off the field in 2024 but was one of the best in the league
with the 49ers in the previous two seasons. It sounds as though
he expects to shadow in 2025, so do not be surprised if a few
alpha receivers struggle against Indianapolis. The addition of
Bynum should make the Colts' defense much less susceptible to
being beaten by tight ends as well.
Jacksonville
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Josh Hines-Allen
ED
27
7.5
65.1
70.1
Arik Armstead
ED
31
6.3
63.8
61.9
DaVon Hamilton
DI
28
5.5
66.7
54.2
Travon Walker
ED
24
6.5
60.9
69.2
Foyesade Oluokun
LB
29
7.1
6.8
69.5
62.8
Devin Lloyd
LB
26
6.6
8.5
62.6
84.2
Travis Hunter #
CB
22
7.5
6.5
Tyson Campbell
CB
25
6.6
6.2
63.9
54.5
Jarrian Jones
Slot
24
6.6
7.8
62.5
88.5
Eric Murray
S
31
5.9
6.1
64.9
67.2
Darnell Savage
S
27
5.1
6.7
40.7
62
Rotational Players
45.4
74.4
Maason Smith
DI
22
59.7
39.7
Jordan Jefferson
DI
23
59.8
63.3
Emmanuel Ogbah
ED
31
52.9
72.4
Dawuane Smoot
ED
30
71.4
53.1
Jack Kiser #
LB
24
Ventrell Miller
LB
26
45.4
63.4
Jourdan Lewis
CB
29
79
45
Caleb Ransaw #
S
22
Antonio Johnson
S
23
43
75.2
DC: Anthony Campanile (first year)
Run: Jacksonville's most notable change to its front seven was
adding some depth pieces to its defensive line. Armstead is still
a player opponents need to have a plan for at age 31, but the
Jaguars could still use that one stout lineman next to him that
offenses cannot move off the spot. If they could find or develop
that player, they could be a borderline top 10 against the run
because the Jaguars are in good shape at linebacker with Oluokun
and Lloyd. Hines-Allen and Walker have established themselves
on the edges as well.
Who to target in the passing game: Lewis had a good season in
the slot for Dallas in 2024, but it is hard to forget he was a
weak link in the Cowboys' defense for long stretches of the four
previous seasons. He may not start if Hunter is more of a full-timer
than most expect right away. The Jaguars added Murray and Ransaw
at safety, but it seems unlikely either one will make a noticeable
dent in the team's ability to cover tight ends after Jacksonville
gave up the 10th-most fantasy points to the position in 2024.
Who to avoid in the passing game: So much of the answer to this
question depends on how often Hunter plays on defense this year.
It seems unlikely he would be asked to play a large role on offense
and also shadow the opponent's top receiver week after week. Will
he be primarily a nickel defender and turn Lewis into a true backup?
Campbell appeared to be on the verge of becoming a star after
his 2022 season, but his play has fallen off since then. While
the 25-year-old may be a better fit as a team's No. 2 cornerback,
he may also be a better fit for the new defense that promises
to play more zone than they did under former DC Ryan Nielsen last
year.
Kansas City
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
George Karlaftis
ED
24
6.1
59.0
56.7
Chris Jones
DI
30
6.1
67.6
64.0
Mike Pennel
DI
34
6.0
55.1
62.4
Mike Danna
ED
27
5.8
64.4
57.6
Nick Bolton
LB
25
7.1
7.2
65.6
65.8
Drue Tranquill
LB
29
6.4
6.0
60.0
67.5
Trent McDuffie
Slot
24
8.4
7.7
79.2
81.6
Jaylen Watson
CB
26
6.2
6.4
71.6
62.0
Kristian Fulton
CB
26
6.8
6.8
66.6
73.1
Bryan Cook
S
25
5.5
7.5
51.8
77.0
Jaden Hicks
S
22
7.1
7.4
75.7
71.5
Rotational Players
47.5
73.0
Omarr Norman-Lott #
DI
23
Jerry Tillery
DI
28
54.3
52.1
Charles Omenihu
ED
27
70.0
64.1
Felix Anudike-Uzomah
ED
23
58.1
61.1
Leo Chenal
LB
24
69.6
90.1
Jeffrey Bassa #
LB
22
Chamarri Conner
CB
24
62.0
83.2
Joshua Williams
CB
25
68.3
62.0
DC: Steve Spagnuolo (seventh year)
Run: The Chiefs were among the better rush defenses in the league
last year, finishing eighth in yards allowed and tied for fourth
in yards per carry (4.1), although it helped that they faced the
eighth-fewest rush attempts. Kansas City undoubtedly benefited
from playing teams like the Raiders (twice), Broncos (twice) and
Saints who struggled to run the rock. The Chiefs did little to
improve the front seven in the offseason and lack much depth at
defensive tackle, which could lead to a nightmarish scenario for
Tranquill, Bolton and/or Chenal if Jones or Pennel get hurt.
Who to target in the passing game: Kansas City did little to
fix its susceptibility against tight ends either, so players at
that position who can stretch the seam should find success again
in 2025, especially considering how much the Chiefs like to blitz.
Fulton is on his third team in three years. While he graded out
reasonably well in coverage with the Chargers this year, opponents
will almost certainly test him and leave McDuffie alone if the
Chiefs' pass rush cannot get home quickly enough.
Who to avoid in the passing game: After working mostly as a slot
corner in 2023, McDuffie went back to playing mostly on the perimeter
in 2024. As with most corners who do not play on just one side
- as was the case here - McDuffie was beaten from time to time
(six touchdowns allowed). Nevertheless, a 60.8-percent catch rate
allowed against the best receivers in the league is not bad since
it was the first time he was asked to handle that responsibility.
McDuffie will probably not find his way onto a top-five list for
most feared coverage corners this year, but the 24-year-old could
easily start knocking on that door as soon as 2026.
Las Vegas
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Maxx Crosby
ED
27
8.5
66.1
73.5
Christian Wilkins
DI
29
7.7
53.0
80.2
Adam Butler
DI
31
5.1
70.5
48.3
Malcolm Koonce
ED
27
6.5
Germaine Pratt
LB
29
6.3
6.8
53.4
70.1
Elandon Roberts
LB
31
5.2
8.6
49.6
91.0
Darien Porter #
CB
24
6.1
5.8
Eric Stokes
CB
26
6.3
5.4
62.4
50.8
Darnay Holmes
Slot
27
5.4
4.4
49.5
70.7
Jeremy Chinn
S
27
6.2
6.3
64.5
64.7
Isaiah Pola-Mao
S
25
5.4
6.1
45.1
72.4
Rotational Players
40.9
71.2
JJ Pegues #
DI
23
Leki Fotu
DI
26
38.1
Tyree Wilson
ED
25
66.9
72.4
Charles Snowden
ED
27
55.8
72.1
Devin White
LB
27
62.4
58.4
Jakorian Bennett
CB
24
61.0
42.2
Decamerion Richardson
CB
24
42.2
60.5
Lonnie Johnson Jr.
S
29
46.5
65.1
DC: Patrick Graham (fourth year)
Run: The Raiders were right around the league average in run
defense, which is an impressive feat considering Wilkins missed
12 games and Crosby sat out five. Pegues and Fotu provide solid
depth in case Wilkins misses time again or Butler does not pick
up his play in a big way. Of course, Crosby is what ties this
entire defense together. He was also not healthy for most of the
year. Simply having Wilkins and Crosby healthy this year should
result in a run defense that pushes for a top-10 finish. However,
losing LB Robert Spillane to the Patriots will hurt against the
run.
Who to target in the passing game: The pass rush should be good
enough to make the secondary look better than it is, but there
is not a defensive back in this group that should be considered
a daunting matchup … at least not yet.
Who to avoid in the passing game: Losing Nate Hobbs to Green
Bay removed the one cornerback from Las Vegas who could have fit
into this section. As a whole, the Raiders' secondary is probably
a bit better this year with the additions of Porter and Chinn.
Unfortunately, Porter is a third-round rookie and Chinn has struggled
to stay healthy since joining the NFL in 2020.
LA Chargers
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Khalil Mack
ED
34
8.3
80.3
87.7
Da'Shawn Hand
DI
29
6.4
59.5
61.8
Teair Tart
DI
28
6.8
66.0
70.3
Tuli Tuipulotu
ED
22
7.1
56.9
65.3
Daiyan Henley
LB
25
7.7
6.7
71.3
65.0
Junior Colson
LB
22
5.8
6.4
32.2
54.9
Tarheeb Still
Slot
23
7.7
6.7
74.8
69.1
Donte Jackson
CB
29
5.8
5.8
45.1
74.5
Cam Hart
CB
24
6.5
6.0
58.1
65.9
Alohi Gilman
S
27
6.8
6.8
64.5
66.5
Derwin James Jr.
S
28
7.8
8.9
76.3
87.9
Rotational Players
48.1
75.9
Otito Ogbonnia
DI
24
59.9
45.2
Naquan Jones
DI
27
60.0
60.3
Jamaree Caldwell #
DI
24
Bud Dupree
ED
32
63.1
48.5
Kyle Kennard #
ED
23
Denzel Perryman
LB
32
61.9
54.1
Benjamin St-Juste
CB
27
46.5
57.7
Ja'Sir Taylor
CB
26
57.7
62.9
Elijah Molden
S
26
75.4
71.5
DC: Jesse Minter (second year)
Run: Los Angeles was middle of the pack in run defense (14th)
but was among the worst on a per-carry basis (4.7, 27th). There
is a good chance the Chargers fail to improve on either of those
rankings in 2025 after letting NT Poona Ford sign with the Rams,
although the 340-pound Caldwell may end up plugging the middle
of the line better than Tart. The team loves Henley and Colson
at linebacker, so someone other than Mack needs to step up against
the run up front.
Who to target in the passing game: Jackson started his career
well in Carolina from 2018-20, but his coverage grades have been
mostly average at best since. While he did intercept a career-high
five passes with Pittsburgh last season, he also gave up four
touchdowns and 13.4 yards per reception. His play really fell
off at the end of the season when he allowed all 10 targets in
his coverage to be caught for 147 yards and two scores. There
has to be some concern in Los Angeles that the Chargers will not
be able to put the same amount of pressure on the quarterback
as Pittsburgh did, thereby potentially exposing Jackson.
Who to avoid in the passing game: Still has not quite reached
star status yet, but his rookie season was everything the Chargers
could have hoped for and more from a fifth-round pick. While he
did allow 582 yards and a 65.3-percent catch rate in his coverage,
he also picked off four passes versus allowing three touchdowns
across 14 games. He should be considered a problem for some non-elite
receivers in fantasy. The combination of Gilman and James should
keep Los Angeles safely inside the group of teams that should
stifle tight end production in 2025.
Miami
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Bradley Chubb
ED
29
6.5
Zach Sieler
DI
29
7.0
69.0
70.0
Kenneth Grant #
DI
21
5.8
Jaelan Phillips
ED
26
6.5
60.4
67.5
Jordyn Brooks
LB
27
5.9
7.2
55.1
83.0
Tyrel Dodson
LB
27
7.9
5.8
82.9
47.0
Jason Marshall Jr. #
CB
22
5.8
5.1
Storm Duck
CB
24
5.2
6.0
54.8
56.8
Kader Kohou
CB
26
6.2
6.4
68.9
51.2
Minkah Fitzpatrick
S
28
6.8
7.2
64.9
69.5
Ifeatu Melifonwu
S
26
6.5
6.1
58.4
51.1
Rotational Players
44.3
69.6
Jordan Phillips #
DI
20
Benito Jones
DI
27
53.0
47.6
Chop Robinson
ED
21
52.4
55.4
K.J. Britt
LB
26
40.9
57.3
Willie Gay
LB
27
35.9
55.5
Cam Smith
CB
24
30.1
70.9
Ashtyn Davis
S
28
67.8
73.4
Dante Trader Jr.#
S
22
DC: Anthony Weaver (second year)
Run: Weaver did well to get out of this defense what he did in
his first year, especially minus Chubb and Phillips. Losing Calais
Campbell to Arizona will hurt a great deal. However, the addition
of Grant - along with the healthy returns of Phillips and Chubb
- may make up for it. Despite Brooks' run defense grade last year,
the linebacker group is not an overly impressive one, so Grant
and the underrated Sieler will need to be as stout as possible
as often as possible for the Dolphins to remain an average run-stopping
unit.
Who to target in the passing game: Following the June 30 trade
of Jalen Ramsey to the Steelers, it will be up to the pass rush
to make some combination of Duck, Marshall, Smith and Kohou at
cornerback look good. While no one can say for certain that it
will be open season on Miami cornerbacks, Kohou is the only projected
starter who has achieved some degree of success in the league.
Kohou has played primarily in the slot for most of his three-year
NFL career, which means perimeter receivers should be upgraded
against Miami until further notice.
Who to avoid in the passing game: Fitzpatrick will likely grade
out higher than what I am projecting. Quarterbacks will also probably
avoid him more often than not, but that will have less to do with
his ability and more to do with what the limited or inexperienced
resources Miami has at cornerback this season.
New England
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Harold Landry III
ED
29
7.2
74.7
82.2
Milton Williams
DI
26
6.6
62.0
41.0
Christian Barmore
DI
25
6.0
60.0
56.9
Keion White
ED
26
6.2
63.6
55.3
Robert Spillane
LB
29
5.2
8.3
48.8
87.3
Christian Elliss
LB
26
6.2
7.2
66.1
70.1
Christian Gonzalez
CB
23
8.5
6.4
78.2
59.2
Carlton Davis III
CB
28
7.6
7.0
72.1
77.7
Marcus Jones
CB
26
7.1
7.8
67.1
88.2
Jabrill Peppers
S
29
7.7
8.2
81.7
74.7
Kyle Dugger
S
29
4.5
6.8
34.8
59.7
Rotational Players
46.8
77.7
Joshua Farmer #
DI
22
Anfernee Jennings
ED
27
54.1
73.0
K'Lavon Chaisson
ED
25
43.5
59.5
Jahlani Tavai
LB
28
42.7
63.7
Marte Mapu
LB
25
62.7
57.7
Craig Woodson #
S
24
Jaylinn Hawkins
S
27
56.3
69.3
DC: Terrell Williams (first year)
Run: The Patriots had a strong offseason, particularly on the
defensive side of the ball. While Milton Williams is more of a
force against the pass than the run, he can be better than he
was at the latter last season. The same probably applies to Barmore,
who lost most of last season to blood clot issues. Landry has
long been solid against the run and White will reportedly be used
more like a true defensive end this year instead of a hybrid defensive
tackle. The addition of Farmer gives New England some necessary
beef. It all bodes well for Spillane, who was one of the best
run-stopping linebackers in the league during his two-year stint
in Las Vegas.
Who to target in the passing game: Given how strong New England's
starting cornerback duo looks right now, fantasy managers should
expect offenses to spend a lot of time throwing to running backs
and short-range tight ends. Coverage is not the forte of Spillane
or Elliss. Jones has been a fine slot defender over his three
seasons with the Patriots and represents an easier matchup for
opposing pass-catchers than Gonzalez or Davis, so expect teams
to throw in his direction as well.
Who to avoid in the passing game: The new regime has not given
any indication whether they plan on using Gonzalez as a shadow,
but it should be assumed they will at times. Even if they do not,
Davis spent most of his career as the Bucs' top cornerback. When
healthy, the 28-year-old should be expected to be one of the best
No. 2 cornerbacks in the league. The bulk of receivers who operate
mostly on the perimeter should be expected to struggle against
New England.
N.Y. Jets
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Will McDonald IV
ED
26
5.5
60.1
39.5
Quinnen Williams
DI
27
8.1
64.6
57.5
Derrick Nnadi
DI
29
5.0
57.7
45.7
Jermaine Johnson
ED
26
6.8
62.1
40.4
Quincy Williams
LB
28
6.9
7.6
61.0
74.3
Jamien Sherwood
LB
25
7.6
7.4
66.2
77.1
Sauce Gardner
CB
24
8.8
6.2
73.1
53.6
Brandon Stephens
CB
27
5.4
6.9
49.4
66.6
Michael Carter II
Slot
26
7.7
6.5
47.9
63.9
Andre Cisco
S
25
7.0
6.7
56.7
63.7
Tony Adams
S
26
6.8
6.2
67.5
59.4
Rotational Players
50.2
72.9
Byron Cowart
DI
29
58.7
60.1
Jay Tufele
DI
25
55.3
42.0
Micheal Clemons
ED
27
70.4
46.6
Eric Watts
ED
24
78.7
72.1
Azareye'h Thomas #
CB
20
Qwan'tez Stiggers
CB
23
54.8
68.4
Malachi Moore #
S
23
DC: Steve Wilks (first year)
Run: The grades above do not reflect how good the Jets actually
were against the run in 2024 or how good they could be in 2025.
While the loss of retired LB C.J. Mosley will likely hurt, he
only played in four games last year and never seemed to live up
to the standard he set as a Raven over his first five seasons.
Considering how stout Detroit was against the run during new HC
Aaron Glenn's time there as a defensive coordinator, expect New
York to be more than the sum of its parts in that area. Although
Nnadi, Cowart and Tufele are not massive men who have a reputation
as run stoppers, each of them brings much-needed girth that the
Jets did not have a year ago.
Who to target in the passing game: Opting to let CB D.J. Reed
walk in favor of Stephens was an interesting choice by the new
regime and one that could make one of the tougher secondaries
to face in the NFL in recent years a less daunting challenge.
With Baltimore last season, Stephens allowed players in his coverage
a catch rate of 67.9 percent and five touchdowns (versus no interceptions).
It would not be overly shocking if he loses his job to Thomas
at some point, despite the fact that he signed a three-year, $36
million contract in the offseason.
Who to avoid in the passing game: If Glenn's time with the Lions
was any indication, the Jets will play more man defense than they
have in years. However, that should not change how much most offenses
will try to avoid Gardner. While certainly not on the level of
Gardner, Carter appears to be fully healthy again after a back
injury made him a shell of himself in 2024. He has occasionally
been one of the stingier slot corners in the league.
Pittsburgh
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
T.J. Watt
ED
30
9.1
70.0
90.3
Cameron Heyward
DI
36
7.6
61.8
79.6
Derrick Harmon #
DI
21
6.2
Alex Highsmith
ED
27
8.0
79.8
78.3
Patrick Queen
LB
25
6.3
6.0
54.3
53.1
Payton Wilson
LB
25
7.8
6.7
77.3
62.0
Jalen Ramsey
Star
30
7.8
8.0
71.9
85.7
Joey Porter Jr.
CB
24
7.4
5.8
56.3
55.4
Darius Slay
CB
34
7.2
5.5
75.5
58.1
DeShon Elliott
S
28
6.6
8.0
63.3
83.9
Juan Thornhill
S
29
7.0
6.6
64.5
61.7
Rotational Players
50.1
77.5
Keeanu Benton
DI
23
76.1
47.4
Daniel Ekuale
DI
31
64.5
62.7
Yahya Black #
DI
23
Nick Herbig
ED
23
47.9
48.2
Jack Sawyer #
ED
23
Malik Harrison
LB
27
29.9
69.7
Beanie Bishop Jr.
CB
25
57.1
55.8
Brandin Echols
CB
27
61.2
40.1
DC: Teryl Austin (fourth year)
Run: Pittsburgh's run defense was much better than it has been
given credit for this offseason, largely because most people only
seem to remember the 220 yards the Steelers allowed to the Ravens
in Week 16 and the 299 yards they gave up in the Wild Card Round.
Even accounting for those poor performances, Pittsburgh ranked
sixth in run defense and yards allowed per carry. The Steelers
used their first-round pick on Harmon to replace the 31-year-old
Larry Ogunjobi in hopes he can become the new Heyward. Assuming
Harmon can bring anything close in 2025 to what Heyward has brought
for a decade, the Steelers should take their usual place among
the stingiest rush defenses in the league. Watt, Highsmith and
Wilson are all very good or great against the run.
Who to target in the passing game: Slay probably gets a bit too
much pub for being one of the league's best corners, but it is
hard to ignore the stellar catch rate he allowed with the Eagles
last year (51.7 percent). Nevertheless, he is not a corner fantasy
managers should avoid as much as a player quarterbacks need to
be aware of every time they drop back. The surprising weakness
in Pittsburgh's secondary in 2024 was at safety, as S Minkah Fitzpatrick
gave up a career-high five touchdowns in his coverage and Elliott
got beat for three more. The Steelers have struggled against tight
ends for two straight years, so it will not hurt the team to try
something different.
Who to avoid in the passing game: It remains to be seen what
the Steelers have in mind for Ramsey, but a good guess would be
to serve in the "star" role he occupied with the Rams.
(In Los Angeles, he was asked to extinguish whatever fire needed
to be put out in a given week, whether that meant locking down
a tight end, perimeter receiver or slot receiver.) Porter was
not able to take the next step following a brilliant rookie season,
but that does not mean he had a bad year. He continued to do his
fair share of shadowing while only surrendering one touchdown
in his coverage. The 66.7-percent catch rate he yielded was not
ideal, but the fact that he did not allow a TD catch over his
final 13 games should give fantasy managers some pause when their
alpha receivers face Pittsburgh.
Tennessee
Player
Pos
Age
25 Cov
25 Run
Cov Grade
Run D Grade
Jeffery Simmons
ED
27
7.8
57.7
73.0
T'Vondre Sweat
DI
23
8.0
66.1
75.0
Sebastian Joseph-Day
DI
30
7.1
60.7
77.7
Dre'Mont Jones
ED
28
5.6
37.7
45.5
Cody Barton
LB
28
5.6
6.8
52.8
76.9
Otis Reese IV
LB
26
6.3
5.6
56.7
54.2
L'Jarius Sneed
CB
28
7.0
6.2
36.8
57.7
Jarvis Brownlee Jr.
CB
23
6.3
7.4
55.9
77.7
Roger McCreary
Slot
25
6.6
7.3
58.4
71.2
Amani Hooker
S
27
6.8
6.2
66.3
58.4
Xavier Woods
S
29
6.6
6.6
55.4
59.7
Rotational Players
45.2
74.6
James Lynch
DI
26
59.7
60.7
Arden Key
ED
29
62.1
69.0
Lorenzo Carter
ED
29
40.3
53.6
Oluwafemi Oladejo #
ED
21
Cedric Gray
LB
22
45.0
43.5
Darrell Baker Jr.
CB
27
62.8
72.7
Amani Oruwariye
CB
29
63.9
47.4
Kevin Winston Jr. #
S
21
DC: Dennard Wilson (second year)
Run: Tennessee had issues offensively, which led to a high number
of rush attempts against its defense (503). The Titans also were
not great at stopping it regardless, tied for 18th in yards allowed
per carry (4.5). Tennessee should be much better this year simply
because Sweat will have had another year in the NFL and Simmons
will have a healthy arm (reportedly tore his left UCL in late
September). Wilson should also have better players available to
him at inside linebacker in 2025 with Barton (free agent from
Denver) and Reese (three games in 2024) expected to replace Ernest
Jones (traded after Week 7 last year) and Kenneth Murray (poor
run defense grades in each of the last four seasons).
Who to target in the passing game: Since Sneed will likely be
asked to shadow the most obvious alpha receivers, Brownlee will
likely get picked on a lot after a mostly average rookie season.
From Week 7-17, he allowed 45 of 61 targets to be completed in
his coverage for 606 yards and four touchdowns versus one interception.
Who to avoid in the passing game: Sneed was acquired to be a
shadow corner last offseason, then spent most of the regular season
battling through what was thought to be a quad bruise but was
later found to be a strain requiring a bone marrow injection and
a period of wearing a leg brace. With that said, he was not grading
out well before the injury. Nevertheless, Sneed was too good for
too long in Kansas City to believe he is not still an above-average
corner who likely just suffered due to a lack of pass-rushing
talent up front. The same can probably be said of McCreary.
Doug Orth has served as an analyst for FF Today since 2006 and
joined the Fantasy Points team before the start of the 2024 season.
He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who has not experienced
a losing money season in any of his 25 years in this hobby. Please
check him out on "The Football Diehards" podcast - courtesy
of Full Time Fantasy - on Wednesday nights with co-host JJ Wenner.