The Colts are struggling at 1-3 and desperately need a win in
the conference to have any hopes of making the playoffs. In looking
at the stats, the defense has performed fairly well, staying in
the top ten in most categories except for one – average
points allowed (24) – which ranks them 16th.
This week the Ravens will be at home in a game forecasted for
rain and focused on ball control. Baltimore has turned the ball
over 5 times in the first four weeks, and the Colts has eight
takeaways. Bad weather doesn’t favor that type of matchup
and it would be a surprise if this game didn’t change on
a bad bounce. Yes the oddsmakers put a large spread on this game,
but other factors are going to decide this contest.
#3: Minnesota over Detroit: (3-1: buf, TB, AZ, GB)
Never take a survival pool entry that is between division rivals.
Never take a survival pool entry that is between division rivals.
Never take a survival pool entry that is between division rivals.
This is my standing rule. But occasionally, a game stands out
where the trends seem to say, forget the rules.
The Vikings welcome the Lions this week in a game that the home
team should run away with it. Either Dalvin Cook (ankle) or Alexander Mattison should have no problems with this defense and Kirk Cousins
should bounce back from last week’s sub-par performance.
This is a game between two average teams with one (Vikings) thinking
that they are going to make the playoffs. As such, this is game
just need to go out and execute. Minnesota is a third choice because
of my rule above, but this might be the best choice of the week
based upon the matchups and personnel.
#2: New England over Houston: (3-1: TB, GB, DEN, no)
Bill Belichick and his youthful Patriots almost pulled off the
victory last week against the reigning Super Bowl Champions, missing
a 56-yard field goal with less than a minute remaining. This week’s
task won’t be as difficult, nor as emotional.
New England has quietly put together a top five defense this
year, limits teams to 17.5 pts per game, and should win the turnover
margin against a Houston team that is 28th in turnovers lost.
Mac Jones has shown excellent skills in his defensive reads, and
a new dynasty is hoped for from the rookie and his head coach.
Yes the Pats will be on the road as the Boston faithful watch
their Sox in the playoffs in Tampa (of all places). No NFL team
just lies down in their home building, but until the Texans start
making smart personnel moves, the Texans faithful will be tortured
with an NFL product that just isn’t up to league competition
– short of Brandin Cooks who is having a great statistical
year.
Patriots / Texans Comparison
NE Def
Rk
Stat
Rk
HOU Off
306.8
5
TOT YDS
30
263.3
185.0
4
PASS YDS
29
180.3
121.8
19
RUSH YDS
26
83.0
17.5
6
PTS SCORED
29
16.8
5
13
T OVERS / T AWAYS
28
7
#1: Tampa Bay over Miami: (4-0: SF, CLE, CAR, BUF)
Tom Brady and
company slipped away from Gillette Stadium last week with a win
– barely. Tom Terrific didn’t have a four touchdown night, but
it was enough to beat the mentor on his home field.
This week, as long as the Bucs can remember to show up on offense,
you should be able to comfortably pick the Bucs at home against
their cross-state rivals.
The Dolphins will be playing without Tua
Tagovailoa again and will call on Jacoby
Brissett, who has done more than an admirable job in relief.
But his stats don’t light the world on fire as he embodies the
term “game manager”. Combine that with the fact that the Dolphins
are 2nd to last in points scored, and the fish don’t exactly put
fear into me with this pick. That said, the betting community
believes that Miami will cover the spread. Question is, can they
pull off the upset? This writer doesn’t think so, and therefore,
is putting his pick where his mouth is with the Bucs.