Kickers … they are the last item on your fantasy checklist.
You have meticulously selected your starting quarterback, receivers,
running backs and tight ends. Cleverly managed to find quality
backups. Analyzed schedules to maximize your D/ST. And then, for
some unknown reason, most of you essentially pick your kicker
out of a hat. Thinking there is almost no difference, you just
select anyone, any warm body with a strong kicking leg.
STOP!
As fantasy owners we spend a lot of time on D/ST analysis and
the difference between the top team and No. 12 (the last start-worthy
team in a 12-team league) is 3.11 FPts/G (data gathered from 2006-2015).
Meanwhile, the difference between the No. 1 kicker and No. 12
isn’t much different - 2.11 FPts/G.
Although there are many unknowns when choosing a kicker for your
fantasy roster, you CAN gain an advantage by doing homework on
kickers too.
I’ll start by giving you two important facts. The first
one, if you are anything but a novice, you already know. The second
one may surprise you.
New England’s Stephen Gostkowski is the best and most consistent
placekicker in the NFL. Considering he’s been the No. 1
kicker over the past four seasons that’s not exactly “stop-the-presses”
news.
Here’s a slightly more interesting tidbit.
Do not pick a Washington kicker; whether it’s Dustin Hopkins
or anyone else. Over the past 10 NFL season 31 of 32 teams have
managed to produce at least one season with a kicker in the top-12.
Only the Washington Redskins have failed to find even one fantasy-worthy
kicker.
What I’ve found is - it’s less about the kicker and
more about team philosophy. I’ll give you two examples.
The New Orleans Saints, under the direction of Drew Brees the
past 10 seasons, have been an elite, high-scoring offense (27.4
PPG), but their kicker has managed to make it into the top-12
just two times. The Saints offense has been too good, meaning
their kicker is attempting too many extra points and not enough
three-pointers after stalled drives.
By the same token, for many years the Baltimore Ravens have lived
by a strong defense (OK, not last season) and a mediocre offense.
They won with a strategy of don’t make any mistakes on offense
and produce just enough points to allow Ray Lewis and his defense
to win the game. The result was that seven times in the past 10
seasons a Ravens’ kickers (Justin Tucker, Billy Cundiff
and Matt Stover) has finished in the top-12.
Here is where it gets interesting.
In the last ten seasons, 60 different kickers have produced at
least one fantasy-worthy season, but only 10 teams have produced
a kicker at least 50% of the time. Of that group, three teams
(Baltimore, Dallas and New England) have produced a start-worthy
kicker in each of the last five seasons while Seattle has a current
streak of four in-a-row.
So if an owner wants the best percentage of hitting on his kicker
selection in 2016, it would seem he should choose from the above
four team options.
Gostkowski (ADP 137.1), Steve Hauschka (152.9), Tucker (155.4)
and Dan Bailey (164.4) - pick any of the four and based on history
you should be guaranteed a solid fantasy kicker.
At the other end of the spectrum are the Jaguars, Jets, Titans
and Rams who have not had a top-12 kicker in at least five seasons.
Now you may think that second-year QB Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles,
the return of Ryan Fitzpatrick or rookie Jared Goff may change
all that, but why go out on the limb when there is much easier
low-hanging fruit.
There are also seven teams that have produced just one fantasy-worthy
season in the last five years -Carolina, Chicago, Kansas City,
Miami, New Orleans, Oakland and Philadelphia. However, Graham
Gano (2nd), Robbie Gould (8th) and Cairo Santos (6th) did it just
last season so they get can’t be completely crossed off
the list.
Gano (152.9) is currently being selected second off the board
behind Gostkowski, but I’m concerned last season was a “career
year.” He had a league and career-high 59 extra-point attempts
(made 56) and connected on 30-of-36 field goal tries, including
another career-high 15 from 40-yards or more.
Back to the low-hanging fruit, if you don’t get the previously
mentioned four options, there are still a couple of trustworthy
veterans to be had. Matt Bryant (172.8) qualified in four of the
past six seasons and Mason Crosby (164.5) in seven of the last
nine years with the Packers offense expected be better in 2016
due to the return of star wideout Jordy Nelson.
Bottom line, however, is that after the top-four its “caveat
emptor” – let the buyer beware.
Top 12 Fantasy
Kickers: 2006-2015
Player
Tm
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
Team
Totals
Matt Bryant
ATL
12
3
9
4
Jason Elam
ATL
12
5
Chandler Catanzaro
ARI
3
Jay Feely
ARI
12
Neil Rackers
ARI
8
3
Justin Tucker
BAL
7
10
7
8
Billy Cundiff
BAL
11
8
Matt Stover
BAL
4
7
Dan Carpenter
BUF
6
10
Rian Lindell
BUF
12
11
4
Graham Gano
CAR
2
John Kasay
CAR
5
2
Robbie Gould
CHI
8
7
1
3
Mike Nugent
CIN
11
7
Shayne Graham
CIN
5
11
4
Phil Dawson
CLE
9
1
Dan Bailey
DAL
12
8
9
10
5
David Buehler
DAL
10
Nick Folk
DAL
4
7
Brandon McManus
DEN
10
Matt Prater
DEN
2
7
8
Jason Elam
DEN
10
5
Jason Hanson
DET
6
10
8
6
4
Mason Crosby
GB
4
5
4
11
4
7
1
7
Randy Bullock
HOU
9
Shayne Graham
HOU
5
Neil Rackers
HOU
6
7
Kris Brown
HOU
10
5
Adam Vinatieri
IND
3
8
3
12
12
5
Josh Scobee
JAC
5
1
Cairo Santos
KC
6
1
Dan Carpenter
MIA
9
11
Caleb Sturgis
MIA
11
3
Blair Walsh
MIN
4
4
Ryan Longwell
MIN
3
9
4
Stephen Gostkowski
NE
1
1
1
1
3
6
1
2
8
John Kasay
NO
2
John Carney
NO
9
2
Josh Brown
NYG
5
Lawrence Tynes
NYG
2
5
John Carney
NYG
2
4
Jay Feely
NYJ
7
Nick Folk
NYJ
5
2
Sebastian Janikowski
OAK
8
2
2
Cody Parker
PHI
2
David Akers
PHI
1
2
3
4
Shaun Suisham
PIT
7
11
Jeff Reed
PIT
9
3
Nick Novak
SD
3
12
Nate Kaeding
SD
1
8
11
2
6
Josh Brown
SEA
6
Steve Hauschka
SEA
9
5
4
12
5
Phil Dawson
SF
6
David Akers
SF
9
1
Joe Nedney
SF
7
4
Josh Brown
STL
6
Jeff Wilkins
STL
3
2
Matt Bryant
TB
4
10
Connor Barth
TB
11
3
Rob Bironas
TEN
12
10
6
3
4
Steve Schwarz served as the fantasy sports editor of The Sports Network and is the 2014 FSWA Football Writer of the Year.