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Fantasy Impact: What Can Brown Do For You?

By Steve Schwarz | 3/16/24

Marquise Brown

A No.25 overall pick draft pick (and first wideout off the board) out of Oklahoma, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown has always seemed to have more talent than actual production. But part of that was his starting quarterbacks, who liked to run the ball more than they liked to throw it.

Brown with Baltimore and Arizona

Brown and Lamar Jackson were improving over his first three years when he was unexpectedly traded to Arizona to play with his old college quarterback Kyler Murray… which hasn’t been a successful move for the wideout. It must be noted that the pair only played four games together in 2023.

 Marquise Brown
Year Tm Rec Yds TDs FPts/G Rank
2019 BAL 46 584 7 10.5 46
2020 BAL 58 769 8 11.4 35
2021 BAL 91 1008 6 14.3 21
2022 ARI 67 709 3 13.0 44
2023 ARI 51 574 4 9.6 53

Brown with Kansas City

Brown signing a one-year “prove it” deal with the Kansas City Chiefs might be the perfect spot for him to get a healthy contract next season. Certainly, he’ll be with the most talented quarterback of his career. Patrick Mahomes has never thrown for less than 4,000 yards in any season since he became a starter while Jackson and Murray have never thrown for 4,000 yards. Mahomes has also averaged 593 passing attempts per season since 2018, far above anything Brown’s previous quarterbacks have produced.

Opportunity for targets will be there.

If we assume Mahomes will throw the ball 593 times in 2024 and All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce will see 137 of them (his average over the past five seasons), that still leaves 456 targets to be divided between the running backs, Rashee Rice, Skyy Moore, Brown, Justin Watson and a half-dozen possible depth pieces who can’t catch. Assuming 150 targets for running backs and backup tight ends (they totaled 149 last season), that leaves 306 targets for Rice, Moore, Watson and Brown.

Rice clearly became Mahomes’ favorite wide receiver target down the stretch and should see 125 targets. Moore and Watson have limited upside, so give them 75 targets between them. That leaves 106 targets for Brown.

Bottom Line

What can Brown do with 106 targets from the best quarterback in the league while opposing defenses will be focusing their attention on Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice? Think of this as Brown’s floor. I’m going to give Brown a career-high catch-percentage, because of his new quarterback’s prowess meaning he’ll catch 70 balls for 918 yards and seven touchdowns worth 204 full PPR fantasy points.

“Hollywood’s” floor is a WR3 and if he and Mahomes quickly get on the same page or an injury to Mahomes’ top-two favorite targets, it could be significantly higher.