In the final segment of this four-part series we examine the role
of rookie quarterbacks in redraft leagues.
To know whether a rookie quarterback is fantasy-worthy, we must
know what it takes to be a top-12 quarterback each week. That
number turns out to be 21.9 FPts/G based on the last three seasons.
In the first chart, you see the number of times a rookie quarterback
posted “fantasy-worthy” points in their first year
from 2021-2023. There weren’t many.
Keep in mind that Peyton Manning only produced six fantasy-worthy
games his rookie season. And Joe Burrow managed four in 10 games
before being knocked out for the season. Lamar Jackson did it
twice in seven starts. Josh Allen was good six times in 11 starts.
It’s just not that easy to do.
Quarterbacks drafted in the first round managed to help fantasy
owners in 21 of 83 games… or 25.3% of the time. The other
24 drafted quarterbacks over the three-year period from 2021-2023
did it just 11 times over 93 games or 11.8% of their games. So
the odds are not in your favor at any time and certainly not for
lower-drafted quarterbacks. Only C.J. Stroud and an abbreviated
Anthony Richardson season managed to do it in half their games
last season (for those with more than one game).
So how do we evaluate this year’s crop of “franchise”
quarterbacks?
Opportunity! Are they ready to play now or are they a project?
Will they see double-digit starts? Do they have a quality receiving
group? Will their line protect them long enough to find one of
those quality receivers? Will their legs make them dangerous and
more valuable near in the red zone? Does coaching believe in the
quarterback’s ability to be a “franchise” QB
or will they try to protect him by making him a “game manager?”
Let’s find out.
We will grade each quarterback on five categories: 1) Opportunity,
2) Receiving corps, 3) Offensive line, 4) pocket elusiveness/running
ability and 5) coaching.
Caleb Williams will be the Bears’ starting quarterback from Day
1, because he has the most talent and the backup options are Tyson
Bagent or Brett Rypien. The Bears’ receiving corps has been significantly
upgraded in the off-season. Management obviously saw the disaster
in Carolina where Bryce Young had very little talent around him
and wanted to make sure that did not happen in Chicago. They brought
in Keenan Allen for an immediate upgrade and drafted Rome Odunze
out of Washington to grow with their rookie quarterback. And they
still have D.J. Moore and tight end Cole Kmet. They also added
D’Andre Swift who can catch the ball out of the backfield. The
OL was mediocre last season and will likely be a middle-of-the-road
line this season. Check out Doug Orth’s “Big Uglies” analysis
for both the NFC
and AFC for more
in-depth research. Even if the line breaks down, Williams showed
plenty with his leg, rushing for 524 yards and 21 touchdowns over
his last two seasons at USC. I don’t see head coach Matt Eberflus
or OC Shane Waldron, who spent the last three seasons as the OC
in Seattle, holding Williams back in any way. While I don’t believe
Williams will put up Stroud-type numbers, I do believe he will
finish in the top-half of the league and could be part of a two-man
fantasy quarterback strategy.
Like Williams, Jayden Daniels should start from Week 1, with
only Marcus Mariota as his backup. Unlike Williams, Daniels’
receiving corps isn’t quite as good. Terry McLaurin has
been inconsistent of late, Jahan Dotson saw a predictable 30%
drop in production last season after being a touchdown-maker in
2022. The team brought aging veteran Zach Ertz to start the season
and mentor second-round selection Ben Sinnott at tight end, but
they did sign elite pass-catching back Austin Ekeler which will
help. The OL has struggled in the past and probably won’t
be much better this season. They are a bottom-third offensive
line. Fortunately, Daniels can run. In fact, he rushed for 1,134
yards and 10 touchdowns for LSU last season… along with
throwing for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns (just four interceptions).
He’s going to need that elusiveness with this line. While
Dan Quinn is a defensive head coach, his OC Kliff Kingsbury is
decidedly not. In fact, Kingsbury was Patrick Mahomes’ coach
at Texas Tech. This offense will not be conservative, but Daniels
will probably need to use Ekeler a lot until the OL gels. I rank
Daniels around 20th in his rookie season.
Drake Maye won’t get the automatic start like the two guys drafted
in front of him. The Patriots have a respectable veteran, Jacoby
Brissett, to take the pressure off the young rookie if needed.
Maye should still see the majority of starts for the season, but
that may not be a great thing. This Patriots receiving corps isn’t
very good, particularly on the outside. While Hunter Henry and
Austin Hooper will ably man the tight end position, a wide receiver
group led by Kendrick Bourne, Demario Douglas, Jalen Reagor and
rookie Ja’Lynn Polk doesn’t match up very well against most other
rosters. The offensive line is better at run blocking than pass
blocking so Maye could be running around a lot. He did show mobility
at UNC rushing for 1,147 and 16 touchdowns over his final two
seasons. The coaching staff is completely new, from head coach
Jerod Mayo (former Patriots LB) to OC Alex Van Pelt. Van Pelt
had been the OC in Cleveland the past four season. I can’t see
Maye being anything but a bottom-10 quarterback in 2024.
Assuming Kirk Cousins (four-year, $180M contract signed in March
2024) returns from his Week 8 Achilles injury to full health,
I don’t see any path for Penix to have fantasy value this
season other than as a handcuff. But, should an injury happen,
Penix would have decent tools to work with in Drake London, Darnell
Mooney, Rondale Moore, tight end Kyle Pitts and uber-talented
running back Bijan Robinson. They also have a top-10 offensive
line. A new coaching staff can only help as well, but any Penix’s
2024 fantasy value comes only as an injury replacement.
Coming off a national championship at Michigan, McCarthy’s
value in the off-season rose to the point that he became a top-10
draft selection after being thought of as a “game manager.”
He’s stepping into a nice spot, though he may not start
Opening Day. Journeyman Sam Darnold (one-year deal) is at the
top of the depth chart, for now, but he is unlikely to finish
there. The Vikings have weapons everywhere. Probably the No. 1
receiver in the game, Justin Jefferson, is backed up by Jordan
Addison, tight end T.J. Hockenson and running back Aaron Jones.
The offensive line, outside of Christian Darrisaw, needs to improve
if this offense is going to be explosive. Stashing McCarthy for
the fantasy playoffs might be a viable option, but there are too
many questions unanswered to expect him to be a starter from Day
1.
All expectations are that Bo Nix will start for the Denver Broncos
when they open the season. The team’s other options; Zach
Wilson or Jarrett Stidham have already proven they are not “franchise”
material. Nix was an elite high-percentage passer at Oregon (71.9%
in 2022 and 77.4% last season with 45 touchdown passes and just
three interceptions). Does this sound like anyone Sean Payton
has ever coached before? Denver has an eclectic mix of receivers.
Courtland Sutton can make the spectacular catch when needed but
doesn’t see enough work. Marvin Mims is a deep threat who
hasn’t blossomed yet and they brought in veteran Josh Reynolds
from Detroit. Then they drafted Nix’s top receiver at Oregon
– Troy Franklin in the fourth round (1,383 yards and 14
TDs), who might end up being the best of the group long-term.
Both running backs Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine can catch
the ball, accounting for 97 receptions last season. It took Drew
Brees a few years before he became “Drew Brees” so
let’s not expect Nix to be a star in his rookie season,
but a favorable “fantasy” playoff schedule might make
Nix worthy of a late-round stash.
