Tony Pollard was great as the backup/change-of-pace to Ezekiel Elliott
for many years in Dallas, but when he was handed the lead role,
he was disappointing. He rushed for almost the exact yards he
rushed for in 2022, but carried the ball 59 more times. His rushing
averaged dropped from 5.2 ypc to 4.0 ypc. His rushing touchdowns
fell from nine to six. He caught more balls (55 to 39 in 2022,
but his yards per reception dropped from 9.5 ypr to 5.7 and he
failed to score on any of the catches after scoring three times
in 2022. Was this the result of his ankle/leg injury in 2022?
He did seem to regain some of his effectiveness later in the season.
Pollard finished 14th in total fantasy points (full PPR), but
23rd in FPts/G at 13.1. All-in-all, it was not what fantasy owners
had projected before the season began.
Pollard in Tennessee
In signing with the Titans, Pollard figures to share the workload
with second-year running back Tyjae Spears (100-453-2 rushing
and 52-385-1 receiving). Free agent Derrick Henry will most likely
be gone (possibly to Dallas where he owns a home). Henry saw 280
rushing attempts in 2023, but I wouldn’t expect Pollard
to grab all of them. I think Pollard will see around 210 rushing
attempts, down from 252 last season, with Spears seeing much more
work, perhaps 150-160 rushing attempts. Both men can catch the
ball and should share the role.
The problem for Pollard, is that he’s used to being in
a high-flying offense with a big passing game to prevent any overloaded
boxes. Unfortunately, Will Levis isn’t Dak Prescott. An
aging DeAndre Hopkins isn’t CeeDee Lamb. And the Tennessee
offensive line is nowhere near as good as the Dallas Cowboys offensive
line, though they could add an offensive lineman early in this
year’s draft or through free agency.
Bottom line
Like D’Andre
Swift, the size of the free agent contract would indicate
that Pollard will get every chance to be the starter and see 65%
of the workload. But Spears showed a lot of promise in 2023 and
if Pollard gets off to a slow start there could be a significant
change later in the season. Pollard will be a high-risk pick with
an RB1 upside, but he could also find himself in a 50-50 shared
situation and disappoint fantasy owners for a second consecutive
season. Let the buyer beware.
