More congratulations if you have avoided the most recent spate of injuries (Patrick Mahomes, David Montgomery, Nick Chubb, Jaylen Waddle and Alvin Kamara). Speaking of Kamara, it was just four years ago that his famous six-touchdown, 155-yard day single-handedly propelled many a fantasy owner into the next round. Will there be a Kamara-type day this weekend, obviously other than Josh Allen, who is seemingly doing it on a weekly basis?

Truths

“Truth will always be truth, regardless of lack of understanding, disbelief or ignorance.” – W. Clement Stone

1) Jerry Jeudy can get you to the championship game.

He’s averaging 20.8 FPts/G since Week 8 and face the porous Cincinnati pass defense in Week 16. Ignore the past two games where the Bengals looked better because they faced Will Levis and Cooper Rush. They have given up at least 15 fantasy points to the opposing team’s best receiver in 13 of the last 15 games. Jeudy helping you win the championship game may be a bit more difficult with the Miami Dolphins on the schedule in Week 17 (ranked No.2 against opposing WRs).

2) Rookie Malik Nabers is proving to be “quarterback proof.”

Nabers had a 41.2% share on Sunday with Tim Boyle at quarterback. (Didn’t Boyle play Frankenstein’s monster in the movie Young Frankenstein? Oops, sorry that was Peter Boyle). Anyway, back to Nabers, he’s been above a 40% share four times this season, the most in the league. Despite playing with Tommy DeVito, Daniel Jones, Drew Lock and Boyle, Nabers ranks 10th in the league at 17 FPts/G. I can’t wait for him to play with Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward next season.

3) I’ll bet there was a time, just after Week 4, in which Mark Andrews was either dropped for Isiah Likely or available for a moderate trade, and many, like me, didn’t take advantage.

He who hesitates is lost. Since Week 5 Andrews has averaged 13.2 FPts/G which would rank fourth overall at the position. I’ve learned my lesson. If an elite veteran is off to a slow start, not due to injury, I will believe he will return to his annual production level sooner rather than later and will trade for him next season without hesitation.

4) I’ve now learned that there are two game scripts in which Derrick Henry has little value – when they are far behind and when they are far ahead.

True. Earlier in the season, the only time those of us who started Henry had to fear was when they were way behind and Justin Hill came in to catch passes out of the backfield. Now, as the season winds down, the Ravens showed last weekend that they are going to protect their prized running back for the playoffs and not let him rack up yardage as they did at the beginning of the 2024 season. Henry saw a season-low 58% of the running back share. Not what we wanted to see during the fantasy playoffs.

5) The opposite of the Henry situation is Rico Dowdle’s usage in Dallas.

The Cowboys are essentially out of the playoffs so can test their young running back. He’s averaged 21.7 rushing attempts over the past three games and is averaging 17.1 FPts/G. That’s good enough for ninth-best over that span… and 23 spots ahead of Henry. Dallas may be in the draft market for another running back, perhaps even Ashton Jeanty, but they may already have a viable option on their roster and it isn’t Ezekiel Elliott.

Lies

“Even a tiny bit of deceit is dishonorable when it’s used for selfish or cowardly reasons.” – Jeanne Birdsall

1) Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are 1A and 1B.

Not anymore. Nacua is No. 1 and Kupp is now No. 2. Mr. Kupp has been below five fantasy points in two of the last three games, including Week 15’s three-target, no-catch performance. Kupp has four 20+ point games this season and three single digit games. Last season Kupp had three 20+ point games and five single-digit games. He’s too inconsistent to be a No. 1. It’s obvious, Nacua is Matthew Stafford’s primary target when he’s on the field. His target share has been at least 30.8% over the past six games.

2) Like other rookies, Brian Thomas Jr. has been up and down this season.

Actually, when given a minimum number of opportunities, Thomas has been pretty consistent. In nine games where Thomas saw at least five targets, he averaged 18.01 FPts/G and had seven double-digit games. In games where he saw less than five targets he averaged 9.7 FPts/G. His inconsistency was more related to his quarterback looking his way rather than the wide receiver’s ups and downs.

3) No way Mike Evans reaches 1,000 receiving yards for his 11th consecutive season.

Never say never. Since returning from injury in Week 12, he’s averaged 103.5 ypg. He’s now at 749 yards with three weeks remaining. He needs to produce just 251 yards over the final three games (Dallas, Carolina and New Orleans) – 83.7 ypg. I make it better than even odds he completes his mission of 11 in-a-row.

4) Saquon Barkley will break the NFL single-season rushing record.

Sorry, no. After the A.J. Brown outburst of a week ago, the Eagles offense will continue be much more balanced than it was for the first 13 games. Barkley needs 417 yards over the final three games (Washington, Dallas and New York Giants). They won’t overwork him heading into the playoffs similar to the Ravens not overworking Derrick Henry. Barring another game with multiple 70+ yard touchdown runs, Saquon will not get the workload needed to break Eric Dickerson’s 2,105 rushing record. In fact, his fantasy value the next two weeks could be less than desired. Both the Commanders and the Cowboys are top-eight versus opposing running backs since Week 11.

5) Jayden Daniels hit the proverbial “rookie wall.”

He did, but he’s passed it and producing at an elite level again. While the Commanders are just 2-3 over their last five games, Daniels has bypassed the “rookie wall” which seemed to affect him from Week 10-11. That “wall” was actually two really good defenses – Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Since Week 12 he’s averaged 30.9 FPts/G. Unfortunately, he is scheduled for a rematch with the Eagles (ranked second versus opposing QBs), but if you can survive Week 16 and make it to your championship game, Daniels will face the Falcons, who rank 26th against opposing quarterbacks.