Engram in Jacksonville

Was Engram’s fall from stardom due to his work, the failure of his quarterback or the entire offense?

The Doug Pederson coached offense was 13th-best in 2023 (377 points), but fell to 26th last season (320). Former No. 1 overall pick in 2021, quarterback Trevor Lawrence, turned in his worst performance since his rookie season, averaging just 17.6 fantasy points. So, the overall team fell off 15%, and the star quarterback fell off 17.8% over the 10 games he played. Meanwhile, Lawrence’s replacement, former Patriots QB Mac Jones was worse, averaging just 13.1 FPts/G - a drop off of 38.8% from the level of quarterback play the Jaguars got from the position in 2023. Engram’s yards-per-reception was not surprisingly the lowest of his career. Based on those team numbers it’s hard to blame Engram for his fantasy failure last season

Engram in Denver

Now, the question becomes whether his quarterback play and usage in Denver will allow Engram to return to top-six level or higher.

Head coach and play-caller, Sean Payton, had always featured tight ends in his time with the New Orleans Saints. Think prime Jimmy Graham, Ben Watson and even Jared Cook. However, in his first year in the “Mile High” city, Payton’s tight end room, made up of four average “joes”, managed just 52 total receptions. Adam Trautman led the room with 188 yards and Lukas Krull had a team-leading 19 receptions. Was rookie quarterback, Bo Nix, unable to find an open tight end, or does he avoid throwing to them? Checking back to his college days, his tight ends never ranked higher than fourth on the team in targets. Engram, however, is likely the best tight end Nix has ever had on his team.

Conclusion:

Even as a rookie, Nix finished the season top-six in passing attempts (567) and completions (376), because the Broncos running game was pretty inept. Javonte Williams led the team in rushing attempts and yards, but averaged just 3.7 ypc and as a team their rushing average was bottom-10. Williams is gone, signing with Dallas and we don’t know if he will be replaced. It’s possible the team could draft a dynamic runner, many mock drafts even have them selecting Ashton Jeanty from Boise State (also nicknamed the Broncos), but Denver made the playoffs on the arm and legs of Nix. Barring Jeanty falling all the way to the 20th-pick, Nix will be throwing early and often. Therefore, I expect Engram to return to his career average (10.8 FPts/G) on about 90 targets.

Unfortunately, given the improved quality of play at the tight end position, Engram’s career average production would have barely gotten him into the 2024 top-10. Last season there were 13 tight ends who produced double-digit point averages. Engram may be drafted a little too early due to “name recognition,” but I would not be in a hurry to grab him in this era of the receiving tight ends. He’s going to be an average “Evan.”