Byes: Baltimore, Buffalo

Truths

“For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is, than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.” - Carl Sagan

1) Patrick Mahomes has returned to fantasy stardom.

In fact, after two "lost" seasons, Mahomes is back to his old ways, leading the league in FPts/G (27.7). Two reasons come to mind for this resurgence. 1) Because his running backs have given the team very little, Mahomes is running more. He's averaging a career-high 37 ypg on the ground and his four rushing touchdowns already is a career-tying high. 2) He's been more efficient in the passing game with his highest touchdown percentage in three years. He's on pace to throw 31 touchdown passes against just six interceptions which would be his best year since his 2022 MVP season. And he gets Rashee Rice back this week.

2) CeeDee Lamb's imminent return to the lineup will hurt George Pickens' fantasy value.

It will reduce Pickens value a little bit, but he's played too well for Dak Prescott to forget about him. Pickens has five consecutive games with a touchdown catch (Lamb hasn't done that since 2023) and is averaging 24.2 FPts/G on 8.8 targets in Lamb's absence. Lamb's return will send any value for Jalen Tolbert and Ryan Flournoy (combined 34 targets last four weeks) to near zero. Prescott is having his best season since 2021 and can support two WR1s.

3) Are we ready to discuss the mediocre Josh Allen season?

I am. His first game of the season, against the sad Ravens defense (42.7 points) has hidden the fact he's averaging just 22.9 FPts/G in the other five games. That level of production is well below what we've come to expect from the 2024 MVP. Under 23 FPts/G is bottom of the top-10 level. It's not all his fault, his receiving corps is subpar, but the result is his "intended air yards" is the fewest of his career (7.8).

4) Nothing is worse than your player getting hurt early in a game.

True. At least if it's near the end, you get nearly full production and the chance to replace him in the following game. But when you get a Nacua or Egbuka injury, it's double the penalty of a bad game and a questionable future. I'm betting neither star receiver plays next week, particularly the Rams wideout because the team plays in Europe this weekend and then has a bye. I don't expect to see Nacua until Week 9. If Egbuka doesn't return in Week 7 he might sit until Week 10 because after a tough game against the Lions in Week 7, Tampa plays the Saints in Week 8 and then the Bucs have a bye in Week 9.

5) Tight end Kyle Pitts has held those who still believe in him "hostage" for more than 1,100 days.

True. It's been three and-a-half years since his rookie season when he burst onto the scene with a 1,026 yards. Monday night, with both Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud sidelined, was the last straw. After a good performance in Week 4 (18 fantasy points), he should have been able to repeat that type of production. Instead, we got 3-18-0 on four targets while Michael Penix Jr. peppered Drake London and Bijan Robinson for 24 combined targets. There should be no one left who still starts the Falcons disappointing tight end.

Lies

“Sometimes people don't want to hear the truth because they don't want their illusions destroyed.” - Friedrich Nietzsche

1) It is just your imagination that there are more 50-yard plus field goals made this season.

False. But actually the jump from 2023 to 2024 was larger than this year’s increase. Fifty-yard field goals have been on the increase for many years, as the chart below clearly shows. More strong-legged kickers, better footballs (rules change this season) and coaches who are more willing to try them. If your league gives bonuses for longer kicks, you need one of these guys on your roster. Eddie Pineiro is 15-for-15 on all field goals this season and 4-for-4 over 50 yards (25% rostered) and Ka’imi Fairbairn is 11-for-13 and 5-for 7 over 50 (55% rostered). There are others with similar production who are barely rostered.

2) Only one running back in the league has produced at least 20 fantasy points in every game – Christian McCaffrey.

Yet I maintain he's at peak fantasy value if you want to trade him. Three running backs are averaging more than 23 FPts/G, but both Bijan Robinson and Jonathon Taylor have two games below the 20-point level. CMC is averaging 24.65 points with Purdy under center and 24.68 with Mac Jones. He is more consistent, but Robinson and Taylor have higher ceilings. I am still concerned with McCaffrey's weak rushing average (3.1 ypc), lack of rushing touchdowns (1) and the return of the 49ers injured receiving corps which will show up in a reduced workload for CMC and a drop in fantasy points as we hit the middle of the season.

3) One of these five quarterbacks, currently averaging below 20 FPts/G can make a second-half comeback...

• Michael Penix Jr.
  
• Geno Smith
  
• Aaron Rodgers
  
• Kyler Murray
  
• Justin Fields

Sorry, no. I don't believe in any of them. Penix has one good receiver and is prone to ugly games. In eight career starts, five have produced less than 18 points. Geno Smith is proving that DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett carried him. Rodgers is simply too old and his team doesn't have enough talent to overcome it. Murray hasn't been great since 2021 and unless he can turn Marvin Harrison Jr. into his dad will stay that way. Meanwhile, Fields just produced a game with -10 net passing yards.

4) The Panthers can't take Rico Dowdle (389 rushing yards, 66.3 fpoints, last two games) out of his lead back role.

I wouldn't put in past Carolina, but for now, starter Chuba Hubbard (calf) has yet to practice or even take individual drills. No reason to rush him back too early, right? When the time comes, this figures to be a shared backfield because the team just signed Hubbard to a four-year $33 million deal and money talks. In the meantime, ride the Dowdle wave with the Jets (ranked 12th) and the Bills (ranked 27th) next on the schedule. Or trade him while he is at peak fantasy value.

5) Drake Maye is a mirage, his 6.2 fantasy point improvement is unsustainable.

False. I think he's on his way to stardom. The second-year quarterback out of North Carolina is completing 73.2% of his passes with a miniscule 1.1% interception rate to increase his production from 17.5 FPts/G to 23.7 FPts/G, which has him ranked sixth this season. The addition of Stefon Diggs and the improvement of Kayshon Boutte has certainly helped along with the reliable tight end Hunter Henry. He has a tough stretch over the next three games against teams ranked in the top-6 for "QB fantasy points allowed," but after that the schedule is one of the best for opposing quarterbacks with six bottom-10 defenses.