Court Is Now In Session
9/13/08
Welcome back to another session of the Commissioner’s Court.
In this session we’ll discuss the impact your scoring system
can have on your league and answer some questions from the mailbag.
There are a lot of subtle tweaks you can make to the basic scoring
system to make certain positions more or less valuable. In addition
you can modify your scoring to make elite players even more valuable
within certain positions.
One of the primary goals of my league is to make all positions
relevant on draft day. In many leagues, defenses, kickers, and
to a lesser extent, quarterbacks are difficult to differentiate
statistically. This is because the statistical variation between
the best and worst of these players who will be drafted is minimal.
What I try to do is look for the stats that make these players
significant to the NFL and reward those stats according. Let’s
take a look at some examples.
- Quarterbacks handle the ball on every play and typically
will have much more statistical output than other positions. To
mitigate this effect, I reduce the value of TD’s and passing
yardage. This brings QB’s back onto a level playing field
with other positions. I play in multiple leagues and in my league
2 QB’s were in the top 10 for scoring this week. Another
league I play in awards a full 6 points for passing TD’s.
In this league 5 QB’s were in the top 10. You may think
the latter makes QB’s more valuable. It doesn’t. It
makes the elite QB’s more valuable, but after that it actually
decreases the value of the position because even average QB’s
produce 15 – 20 TD’s in a season. It means you can
draft a QB very late and still expect to get LaDanian Tomlinson
type TD stats.
- Defenses are typically picked very late in many leagues
for several reasons. First, their output is largely based on their
schedule and there’s really no way to factor this out with
a scoring system. Secondly, many scoring systems place a premium
on defensive TD’s. This adds yet another element of unpredictability
and another reason to delay picking one on draft day. One way
I’ve countered this is to examine the stats that make a
defense good. Takeaways and defensive scores are good stats, but
not necessarily the goal of playing good defense. The ultimate
goal on defense is to not allow the other team to score. Therefore,
I place the highest point value on points allowed. The next highest
scoring category is yardage allowed. This usually correlates with
points scored. Another stat I give points to is a “Win”
by the defensive team. If a team’s defense holds their opposition
below the NFL scoring average (around 19 points) and that team
wins their game, the DST gets a bonus for contributing to that
win. This scoring system has enhanced the value of a good defense
and also helped take some of the unpredictability out of defensive
scoring. As a result, defenses in my league have become relevant
on draft day, not just an afterthought.
- In fantasy football, just like the NFL, kickers are
their own special bird. There is usually no more than 2 points
per game separating the top kicker from the last ones on fantasy
rosters. This makes them un-draftable because it’s typically
a wasted pick when you could spend that pick on a sleeper who
becomes valuable player. The problem is compounded because points
scored at this position are mostly a matter of opportunity. The
only way to begin to combat this is to take a look at what makes
a good kicker. My two factors are accuracy and distance. Therefore
we put a premium for FG length and some penalties for missed FG’s.
For example, an NFL kicker shouldn’t miss when his team
in the red zone, so if he does it’s -3 points. On the other
hand 60 yard-plus FG’s are so rare that we give 10 points
for these. Does it make much difference on draft day, not really,
but it has widened the margin from best kickers to worst kicker
to about 3 points per game and makes having a good kicker a bit
more of a premium.
As you can see, the scoring system can have dramatic impacts
on your league in more ways than you may imagine. A good commissioner
should examine the season stats each year in order to determine
what stats differentiate the good players from the elite player
so that these players are thusly rewarded. An example from this
week is Michael Turner vs. Willie Parker. These were the 2 highest
scoring RB’s for the week in probably every league.
- Michael Turner – 226 Total Yards – 2 TD’s
- Willie Parker – 138 Total Yards – 3 TD’s
Most leagues reward TD’s with 6 points and its logical
to do so, but what if that’s all you take into account.
In some leagues, Parker outscores Turner, yet 200-yard rushing
games are statistically rare. So, in addition to yardage points
on a linear basis (x number of points per yard) my league applies
bonuses at various levels (50, 100, and 200 yards). By achieving
those bonuses, Turner outscored Parker in my league by 5 points
despite having 1 less TD.
Now on to some questions…
Q) In a 12-team league how do you decide how
many teams are in each division? Is it possible to have 4 divisions
with division rivals playing twice (playoffs start in week 14)?
A: First you need to determine
how you want to work your schedule. In this case with playoffs
starting in week 14, you know you have 13 regular season games.
Next, you need to decide if you want to have division teams play
each other once or twice. Typical 12-team leagues have 3 divisions.
This allows divisional opponents to play each other twice (6 division
games) and allows you to play 7 of the 8 remaining teams. I feel
this is the best format as it mimics the NFL in divisional format
and still allows you to play nearly every team once. A remedy
to this is to play a 14-game regular season but that likely runs
your playoffs into week 17 and as we see in the next question
that presents its own set of problems.
You could also remedy this, as you suggest, by going to 3-team
divisions (4 division games) and playing the other 9 teams in
the remaining weeks. This allows you to keep the division format
and still play every other team, but I think the 3-team division
makes the division concept less important. Because you play so
many non-division games, it’s not nearly as important to
have a strong division record because you could easily win your
division despite winning only 1 or 2 division games.
Q) Is it better to start playoffs in week
13 or week 14?
A: It comes down to personal
preference and I’ve changed my mind on this. My philosophy
used to be that the fantasy season was based on the NFL regular
season and you shouldn’t remove a week from the season just
because certain unknown players may or may not play. After all,
we deal with bye weeks and injuries; shouldn’t we build
a team to be able to deal with players resting in the final game
of the year? Well my answer to that now is “no”. I’ve
just seen too many good fantasy teams robbed of their top players
and fall in the playoffs when they were likely the best team in
the league. My goal is to reward teams that draft and build the
best team. I don’t think getting bounced in week 17 because
of unpredictable circumstances identifies the best team in the
league. You can’t draft a team for week 17. You have to
draft at team to get to the playoffs. The playoffs should be an
event to identify the best team, not the luckiest. And I know
there is luck prevalent throughout all of fantasy football, but
if we can easily remove a bit of it by having playoffs when we
know most of the marquee players will still be playing shouldn’t
we do that? I wouldn’t decline participation in a 17-week
league, but I think the 16-week leagues more accurately reflect
the ability of a fantasy team.
That’s a wrap for this session. We’ll leave the topic
of discussion open for next week so feel free to send
in any questions you’ve got for the commissioner’s
court.
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