Session VI – The Art of the Deal
10/24/08
This week we’ll take a look at every commissioner’s
worst nightmare – trades. Wheeling and dealing to improve
your team is probably the second most entertaining part of fantasy
football behind the draft. It’s also the one of the most common
ways a league can self-implode. Trades are controversial because
there are so many ways to evaluate a trade and much of that evaluation
is subjective. In this week’s column I’ll let you know
what I look for in a trade and what tools I use to make my evaluation.
I’ll also give you a few pointers on how to identify potential
trade opportunities and make a trade that won’t draw flak
from the rest of your league.
To preface my discussion of trade evaluation I’ll start
by saying that I follow the philosophy of “if it’s
not collusion, then the deal should stand.” I’m also
of the notion that the league commissioner should have the only
say on whether or not deals go through. A commissioner that’s
truly acting in the best interest of his league will be the only
one in the league capable of looking at trades with an unbiased
eye. Individual team owners will typically examine trades from
the viewpoint of how it impacts their team. This is why leagues
with veto or trade votes have a tendency to not have many trades.
Vetoes come from owners that see other teams getting stronger,
not because they see collusion or an unbalanced trade.
The rule I use to examine trades is “does the deal benefit
both teams?” I’m not looking for a perfectly equal
trade. I’m not looking to see if one team gets too strong
or unbalanced from the rest of the league. I just want to see
that both owners involved attempted to improve their teams. I
do this by examining the rosters of both teams and primarily looking
to see if they improved their regular starting lineup. Without
getting into too much detail, I’ll illustrate a trade that,
on the surface, looked lopsided, but after review truly benefited
both teams at the time.
My league had a trade in week 3 where Kellen Winslow was traded
for Isaac Bruce and Chris Perry. On the surface it would appear
that the team getting Winslow (A 4th round pick) appears to be
suckering the team that gets Bruce (9th round pick) and Perry
(11th Round Pick). However I allowed the trade to go through because
the starting lineups of both teams appeared to improve. At the
time of the trade, the team moving Winslow had glaring issues
at both WR #2 and RB#2. Bruce would be an instant start at WR
#2 and Perry would likely start over Edge at RB #2. This team
had also grabbed Rosario from free agency. He looked like he may
have potential after two games. This and the early demise of the
Cleveland offense may have lead him to believe he could get by
without Winslow to improve his overall starting lineup. The team
trading Bruce and Perry was trading depth to get a starter so
naturally his team was improved. So despite a lopsided looking
trade that did cause owners in my league to complain; this trade
was approved.
To me, deals like this are the epitome of why all trades should
be allowed unless collusion is involved. At this point in the
season, the team that has gotten the most bang for their buck
is the Bruce/Perry recipient. Isaac Bruce has been a serviceable
#2 WR and has contributed weekly. The team that traded for Winslow
acquired Shiancoe shortly after that and has been starting him
over Winslow. He’ll have to find another tight end this week as
Winslow’s mouth has been more explosive than his play this season.
Only hindsight can determine if a deal was fair or not. There’s
just no way to know what deals would be fair and which ones aren’t.
The unknown aspect of trading is part of the NFL and should be
part of fantasy football as well. I’m not sure what the Falcons
got for Brett Favre but I’m fairly certain it wasn’t enough to
make the deal seem fair in hindsight. No one complained at the
time when Randy Moss was traded for a 4th-round pick. In all my
years of doing this, I’ve questioned 2 trades and rejected one.
Focus on looking for collusion, not on preventing bad trades.
Now that we know what to look for in a good deal, what do we
look for in the bad ones. Well, I’m looking for exactly
the opposite. I’m looking for the deal where only one team
benefits and one team clearly doesn’t. Typically what happens
here is that one team will acquire a player who is better than
their current starters while giving up multiple players that are
not substantially better than what that team currently has. I
had this in my league several years ago where one team gave up
a decent WR for an average QB, and an average RB. On the basis
of total points, because one team got two players, the deal looked
viable on the surface. However on closer examination, the QB would
have been the third on his roster and was the worst of the three.
The RB would not have cracked his starting lineup as well. The
WR he gave up was a starter for him. In addition, these two teams
had a habit of making a trade at the trade deadline that was just
even enough to pass as a legitimate trade, but seemed to help
one team more than the other. Finally they made a deal that was
obviously collusion and they were removed from the league the
following season as the owner of the team getting the backup players
didn’t have a legitimate reason for making this deal.
This brings up another point in reviewing trades. The commissioner
should always ask each owner what they expect to gain from the
trade if he suspects that the trade is unfair. On one occasion
I got a response I didn’t expect that completely changed
my perspective on the deal. A player in our league with a strong
team dealt one of his better RB’s to a weaker team for a
RB that, at the time wasn’t performing as well. On the surface
there seemed to be no justification for this, but the owner explained
to me that he was trading his better RB because he had all but
clinched a playoff spot and the RB he traded for had a better
playoff schedule. It’s important to see what your owners
are thinking before jumping to conclusions.
The perspective of looking at so many trades from the commissioner’s
standpoint has given my some insight on how to get my own deals
done. When looking to make a trade the first thing I do is look
at my team and examine where I have depth. Where do I have players
who could start for other teams? Once I identify my strengths,
I look at the other teams in the league to identify their weaknesses.
Obviously I’m looking for a match of my depth to their lack
of starters at the same position. What I don’t do is target
a player I want and try to throw a package together to get him.
I see a lot of teams try to do that and it rarely ever works.
Why, because you are only examining the trade from your team’s
perspective. If you trading partner has any savvy at all he’s
not going to take a bunch of your dead weight for a top player,
but I see so many trade proposals in other leagues that are just
that.
After identifying potential teams that I match up with, I examine
their team for players I’d like to acquire. Sometimes there
are none and the deal ends here. Usually what I’m looking
for are players that I feel have not shown their potential. For
example I’ve got a team in my league that needs help at
defense and RB, areas I happen to be strong in. He’s got
a fairly deep WR corps that includes Braylon Edwards. I’m
considering using my depth to go after Edwards because he’s
a great talent and I feel he can’t perform any worse this
year. The motivation for the Edwards owner is that he gets a starting
RB and DST and loses a player that has contributed marginally
for him thus far. I’m not sure we’ll pull it off,
but we are close enough that we are talking. He may be fielding
other offers as well.
Hopefully this trade discussion will give you some insight as
to how you want to handle trades in your league. I certainly don’t
mean to imply that leagues with trade voting or vetoes are bad
leagues. The key in those leagues, as it is any league, is having
knowledgeable owners. My job evaluating trades in my league is
so much easier because I have 13 other owners that really take
this seriously and though there are differences in skill level,
all of them are good at this game. This usually prevents me from
even seeing a lopsided deal.
One other quick point to keep trades from sinking your league
is to have a trade deadline. It should be set to where most teams
still have a mathematically shot at making the playoffs. Ours
is week 9 as we play a 13-week regular season. When you play in
leagues with friends and family, it’s just too tempting
for teams out of contention to deal someone to their buddy to
give him a little boost. Having a trade deadline can prevent some
of that because the majority of the league still has the potential
to make the playoffs and any good owner will fight until he’s
eliminated.
Time for one quick question this week…
Q) I received a trade
(Peyton
Manning and Chad
Johnson for Muhsin
Muhammad and Jamal
Lewis) that I felt to be questionable in my league. When I
questioned the owners on the deal I discovered that one owner
had sold his team to a player with considerably less experience.
I denied the trade. Was this the right thing to do?
A) On the surface the deal shouldn’t
have been denied as given the rosters of those two teams, it did
appear to be mutually beneficial. The bigger issue to me is that
a team changed ownership without your approval. I always like
to look to the NFL for answers and the NFL just doesn’t
allow anyone to walk in and buy a team. There is an approval process
and we have the same process in my league. I want to be sure I
get an owner who is on par with the rest of the league, not a
player that will be taken advantage of. I either interview or
get references from other owners anytime we fill a vacant position.
In light of the ownership change mid-season I would have frozen
the other team and taken control of that team until a suitable
replacement could be found. In my league just because the owner
has paid his dues, that does not give him the right to sell the
team. I’d suggest adding a rule to this effect, but I think
you have to act in the best interest of the league regardless
of whether you have a rule in place or not.
That concludes another session of the commissioner’s court.
Next time we’ll start looking at playoff formats and rules
as we’ll be getting close to that time of the year.
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