Trevor Lawrence’s rookie season in 2021 was an extreme
disappointment. The No. 1 overall pick finished with more interceptions
(17) than touchdowns (12) and was headed down the bust trail.
Under the disaster that was Urban Meyer, the Jaguars tied for
the least amount of wins (3) and earned the first overall pick
in 2022.
For the first 12 games, Jacksonville’s 4-8 record indicated
their misery would very likely continue, but Lawrence stepped
up in the final five games allowing Jacksonville to clinch the
AFC South at 9-8. During that stretch, Lawrence threw for over
250 yards per game, eight touchdowns and was near the top of the
league in quarterback rating (101.3). The man who was once treading
into bust territory finished the regular season seventh in passes
completed (387), eighth in passing touchdowns (25), ninth in passing
yards (4,113), passer rating (95.2) and had the seventh-most fantasy
points among all quarterbacks (ESPN scoring). For those that like
stacking, the Jaguars are an excellent option as Lawrence threw
over 750 receiving yards to three different pass catchers.
At the start of 2023, Lawrence is a QB1 in any fantasy league
but probably towards the lower end of the top-10 quarterbacks.
He’s got some untapped rushing ability but it appears head coach
Doug Pederson isn’t going to let him get above the 400-yard mark.
However, his weapons could make him shine bright by the midpoint
of the season and the addition of Calvin Ridley should be a benefit
to Lawrence’s numbers.
Travis Etienne was considered one of the most anticipated rookie
running backs of the 2021 NFL Draft, but missed his entire season
due to a Lisfranc injury just a couple weeks before the regular
season kicked off. James Robinson took over primary running back
duties, but struggled, leaving the starting spot wide open when
Etienne returned in 2022.
The duo split carries early on in the season, but Robinson was
traded to the Jets midway through the year leaving the starting
job to Etienne. He was relatively inconsistent but had a couple
stretches throughout the season where he was a top-10 running
back. However, there were several weeks where he finished with
under 60 rushing yards and wasn’t as big of a receiving
threat as we thought heading into the season.
Etienne finished 2022 with 1,125 yards on just 220 carries (5.1
yards per carry), but only found the end zone five times in 17
games (12 starts). The running back with the 16th-most points
among his peers in 2022 finds himself as a much-lower end RB1
in fantasy leagues in 2023. However, the Jaguars are one of the
few teams yet to establish a solid No.2 option, meaning Etienne
will likely be on the field more than most starting running backs.
Former Brown, D'Ernest
Johnson and rookie Tank
Bigsby are next up on the depth chart and could eat into Etienne’s
workload if they impress during camp.
Wide receiver Calvin Ridley missed all of last season due to
violating the league’s gambling policy while with the Falcons
in 2021. The Jaguars picked him up because of his success in his
first three seasons, averaging over 1,000 receiving yards and
scoring 26 touchdowns from 2018-20.
The Alabama product has proven that he is proficient at route-running,
catching and finding the endzone—three things that fantasy football
managers hunger for. In the past couple seasons (not including
2022), he’s been considered a WR1 in fantasy football, but the
plethora of weapons Trevor Lawrence has and the QB’s willingness
to spread the ball makes Ridley more of a WR2. However, Ridley
has the talent to break past his fellow receivers and early ADP
indicates the fantasy community seems comfortable in this assessment
as he’s going ahead of Christian Kirk as we speak here in mid-June.
It's safe to say that Christian Kirk’s contract with the
Jaguars in 2022 raised the eyebrows of the majority of the NFL
community. Someone who was never really a WR1 received a contract
that included a whopping $37 million guaranteed. However, Kirk
proved his worth as he finished with career highs in receptions
(84), yards (1,108), touchdowns (8) and was 11th among wide receivers
in fantasy points.
With Calvin Ridley joining the mix, it’s currently uncertain
who will be the Jaguars’ most-targeted receiver, but if we compare
the last few years (instead of each of Ridley and Kirk’s last
seasons), the former Falcon has the edge. Kirk does have familiarity
with Doug Pederson’s system which could give him an advantage.
As we get into August, I’d expect the two top-30 receivers to
be drafted in the mid-to-low WR2 range as fantasy owners weigh
Kirk’s career year in 2022 and Trevor’s love for spreading the
ball around.
Speaking of spreading the ball around, Zay Jones had nearly the
same amount of targets and receptions (82—career-high) as
Kirk in 2022, but fewer yards (823—career-high) and touchdowns
(5), finishing 32nd among wide receivers in fantasy points. Jones
has proven he could find openings and get Lawrence’s attention,
but the addition of Ridley should (and very likely will) decrease
his numbers in 2023.
With that being said, Jones is a bench player in most 12-team
fantasy leagues, but could be a very solid option for bye weeks
or if an injury occurs to Ridley or Kirk. However, for 14-man
leagues, the WR3 is good enough to start in the flex slot and
is one of a select WR3’s to even be mentioned as a solid
bench consideration.
For his first five seasons in the NFL (all with the Giants),
Evan Engram was known as an inconsistent tight end who had dropped
the ball far too often. In fact, he led all tight ends in drops
with 13 during his rookie season and finished second in 2020 with
10 - not the category you want to be leading in. His rookie year
would be a high-water mark in New York, finishing 5th among all
tight ends in PPR fantasy points, but the Giants chose to let
him walk prior to 2022 after many ups and downs the following
four seasons.
In 2022, his first season in Jacksonville, Engram corrected his
shortcomings. Thanks to a strong final six weeks that included
two 100-yard receiving games, he became one of the better tight
ends in the league, posting career highs in receptions (73) and
yards (766) and once again finished 5th in total fantasy points
among tight ends.
There’s a very thin line between great and average tight
ends in the NFL, and Engram is that thin line. The Jaguars have
plenty of pass-catching weapons, especially with the addition
of Calvin Ridley this season, so target share could be a concern
as we head into 2023. While he's unlikely to see enough volume
to crack the Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews tier, he definitely has
the ability to be in the mid-range TE1 tier on a weekly basis
due to his explosive playmaking ability and should be among the
top 12 taken at the position in most redraft leagues.
