Editor's Note:
ADP based on 12-team non-PPR scoring system.
The word “value” gets thrown around plenty during
fantasy drafts, and for good reason. Acquiring key contributors
in the right round without reaching for need can make or break
fantasy owners. That’s why mock drafts are important –
to help owners get an idea of which rounds a player might go in.
But during these busy summer months, not everyone has the time
for that, so we’re going to give you a position-by-position
breakdown of overvalued and undervalued players based on their
Average Draft Position (ADP).
Tannehill has increased his completion
%, passing yards and TD throws in each season of his career.
The Case For Tannehill Being Undervalued:
He was a top-10 fantasy scorer at his position last year and has
steadily improved each season.
The Case Against Tannehill Being Undervalued:
The Dolphins lack a standout receiver, and Tannehill’s legs are
a bit overrated, fantasy-wise.
Verdict: Tannehill had a very solid
third year for Miami, with just over 4,000 passing yards to go with
27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He also had 311 rushing yards,
but just one rushing score (his four career scores on the run are
the same total Andy Dalton had last season). Still, the team clearly
wants more out of their passing game, so they overhauled their receiving
corps, bringing in DeVante Parker, Jordan Cameron, and Kenny Stills.
Tannehill has increased his completion percentage, passing yards
and touchdown throws while cutting down on interceptions in each
season of his career, so it would be wise to assume he’ll continue
his ascent – or at the very least have numbers similar to what he
did in 2014.
The Case For Rivers Being Undervalued:
He’s thrown for 4,200+ yards in five of his last six seasons and
has more than 30 touchdown passes in each of the last two years.
The Case Against Rivers Being Undervalued:
He’s now 33, isn’t a running threat and tosses too many balls to
the wrong team.
Verdict: Rivers was in the top-10 in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks
last season with nearly 4,300 passing yards and 31 touchdowns. Unfortunately,
he also threw 18 interceptions, or he would have ranked higher.
And while there’s no doubt he’ll miss Antonio Gates
during the tight end’s four-game suspension, Rivers does have
Keenan Allen to throw to, who should improve after last season’s
disappointment. Fantasy owners who are looking for big upside won’t
pay attention to Rivers, but smart ones will want a guy who simply
goes out and throws for 4,000 yards and 30 scores a season.
The Case For Cutler Being Undervalued:
Last season was statistically his best in a Bears uniform and when
healthy he’s been better than most think.
The Case Against Cutler Being Undervalued:
Aside from being arguably the least likable athlete in professional
sports (or collegiate, high school or youth sports), he’s injury-prone
and turns the ball over too much.
Verdict: Let’s clear up one thing real quick – nobody is saying
to rush out and make Cutler your QB1. Far from it. But he’s the
No.21 quarterback being taken, on average, and that’s an oddly low
number for a guy that tossed 28 touchdowns (or the same amount as
Matt Ryan) last season. Cutler’s interceptions and fumbles can be
maddening, but he’s a guy who can throw for 280 yards and a couple
scores if your QB1 goes down or is on a bye.
The Case For Newton Being Overvalued:
Most of his numbers have regressed steadily, and at some point all
the hits he’s taken will catch up to him.
The Case Against Newton Being Overvalued:
Newton has a history of fantasy success, and that running ability
is tantalizing.
Verdict: Newton had the worst season of his career last year, with
just over 3,100 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions
while running for 539 yards and five scores. Each of those numbers
represented a career-low, and after four years it’s safe to
say Newton just isn’t an elite passer. That would be fine
if he could continue running the ball the way he did his rookie
year, but running quarterbacks struggle to maintain their production
in that regard. The former number one overall pick should still
be productive, but the sixth round seems too high for a player with
Newton’s question marks.
The Case For Brady Being Overvalued:
He’s going to miss a quarter of the season (possibly).
The Case Against Brady Being Overvalued:
He’s freaking Tom Brady. Oh, and he has Gronk.
Verdict: This write-up is being done based on the assumption that
Brady will miss the first four games of the season due to the comically
overblown “Deflategate” saga. He also struggled a bit
early last season but rebounded in a big way, ending up with over
4,100 passing yards and 33 touchdowns to go with only nine picks.
Brady shouldn’t approach those types of numbers this season
if his suspension holds up and a quarter of his year is wiped out.
That’s enough games to potentially ruin a fantasy owner’s
year, so taking Brady this high when other good options exist isn’t
a good play.
The Case For Manning Being Overvalued:
His accuracy is wildly inconsistent.
The Case Against Manning Being Overvalued:
He had the best TD-INT ratio of his career last season and when
in doubt can chuck the ball to Odell Beckham Jr.
Verdict: Manning threw 30 touchdowns in 2015 – the second-highest
total of his career – and had over 4,400 passing yards. He
also threw 14 interceptions, which was the eighth-highest total
in the league but 13 fewer than his previous season. Those 14 picks
were Manning’s lowest total since 2009, and twice in that
time he threw 25 or more interceptions. He is capable of good things
and certainly deserves a spot on fantasy rosters, but not as a potential
starter. Manning should be played depending on match-up, which means
a fantasy owner that takes him in the eighth round needs to grab
another quarterback in the early-to-mid rounds as well, or risk
having Manning torpedo their season should he revert to being an
interception machine.
