To analyze the relationship between the number of carries in a given season and production the following year, we need some standards. We obviously need the total number of carries for each RB, but we also need to factor in receptions. Let's make things simple and go with the following equivalencies:

1 carry = 1 carry
1 reception = .5 carry

The rationale for the reception equivalency is receptions still account for “wear and tear,” but less so than carries. With a rushing attempt, it is more common for several players to tackle a RB and those players are often bigger and stronger—defensive linemen and linebackers. I used these equivalencies as the basis for my research and will refer to that total of these two types of attempts as f/carries—formulated carries.

We also need to define what constitutes a "Heavy Workload," for a RB. I tried several different numbers for this formula and settled on 370 f/carries as the benchmark. It netted 27 RBs that reached 370 f/carries a grand total of 42 times over past 27 years. The following are an update of the last two seasons, the results of data, my own conclusions, and which RBs could be affected in ‘06.

Recent Seasons
The original article of this analysis was done before the ‘04 season. Here are results for backs that attained the benchmark carries in the ’03 or ’04 season and how they performed the following year.

There aren’t many players that reach this benchmark, but for those that do, they saw a decrease in fantasy production of these players. Each player had a decrease in carries/receptions, a decreased ff production, and missed time. This is actually quite indicative of the overall historical trend and data for Rbs after attaining a 370-f/carries season.

Here’s a more historical perspective that includes the above RBs (but again excluding Ricky Williams) in the overall data:

Games Missed for RBs coming off a 370-F/Carry Season
For comparison I looked at the top 30 fantasy runners over the past 10 seasons. There were 108 backs (a total of 36% of the 300 backs sampled) that missed at least one game during a given season. The likelihood of a back reaching the heavy workload benchmark is significantly higher in his following season:

• 24 of 42 (57.1%) Heavy Workload RBs missed at least 1 game
  
• 11 of 42 (26.2%) Heavy Workload RBs missed 1-3 games
  
• 12 of 42 (28.6%) Heavy Workload RBs missed 4+ games

What it means: The data suggests that RBs coming off a 370-f/carry season are more likely to miss time due to injury than a typical RB in a given year. They are over 1.5 times more likely to miss 1 game (57.1% vs. 36.0%) and nearly as likely to miss over 4 games as the rest of the sample was to miss a single game.

F/Carries and injury for RBs coming off a 370-f/carry season
Here are the ten-year totals for f/carries the season after a RB attains the heavy workload f/carry benchmark:

• 7 of 42 (16.7%) RBs had an increase in f/carries (In fact, the increase was a significant gain of +17.2 f/carries)
  
• 35 of 42 (83.3%) RBs had a decrease in f/carries
  
• RBs that missed at least a game had an average decrease of -82.3 f/carries for the season
  
• Even if the RB didn’t miss a game the overall workload decreased by an average of -28.4 f/carries
  

What it means: RBs coming off a season where they attained the heavy workload benchmark of 370 f/carries experienced a decreased in f/carries nearly 8 out of 10 times—even when remaining healthy. When doing projections or rankings of the top tier backs it’s useful to consider this data. The difference may be nominal even if you go with the conservative estimate of deducting 24.8 f/carries from any player reaching that 370-f/carry, heavy workload benchmark from the previous year, but it will likely yield more accurate projections for your draft.

RB Fantasy Production Following a 370-f/carry Season
During the past ten seasons, an overwhelming majority of heavy workload backs from the previous year see a drop in production. Here’s the breakdown:

What it means: In a ten-year span, only 12 of 42 (28.5%) backs either met or experienced only a slight decrease (10% or less) in their previous season’s production. In contrast, 30 of 42 (71.5%) backs during that same period of time experienced at least a 20% decrease in their fantasy production.

Future Career FF Production Of a 370 f/Carry RB
Once a RB has a heavy workload season (370 f/carries), what can we expect from him the rest of his career? Again, we'll turn to this ten-year historical window where there have been a total of 137 seasons that occurred after these 42 backs posted a heavy workload year. This should give us an idea of whether the RB has reached his peak after such a big year.

What it means: Only 5.1% of backs ever attained 300+ fpts again once they already produced at 370-f/carry season (approximately 2100 total yds/15tds). Even when you lower the expectations to 250+ fpts (1700 total yds/13tds) the number only rises to 12.3%. You actually have to considerably lower your expectations to 200 fpts (1500totyds/8tds) just to see a little more than 1 out of 4 (26.2%) heavy producers ever reach that workload again.

Even more startling is you can count the number of players that repeatedly reached the highest levels of RB fantasy production on one hand! Emmitt Smith alone was responsible for three of the seven seasons with 300+ points. And of the ten times where backs reached the 250-299 point-mark more than once, seven of these seasons came from three players: Walter Payton (3), Curtis Martin (2), and Eric Dickerson (2).

Conclusions
RBs coming off 370-f/carry seasons have a lot of statistical data working against them. But we Fantasy Footballers have heard similar, and discouraging data before: "5 of 10 players will fall out of top10 each year," and "‘WRs do poorly their first year with a new team." What’s important to note is that these statistics deal in probabilities and are not infallible from year to year.

Yes, 5 backs may drop out of top 10 in a given year. But next year it may be 3, the year after that could be 6, and then only be 3 again for the following season. The point of such data is not to say, "Don’t draft last year’s top RB(s) coming off a 370-f/carry season," but to consider the data, and be aware of the probabilities working against you when drafting one of these players. Watch and note a player’s team and individual situation and adjust draft strategy or rankings/projections accordingly.

It’s rare to have a 370-f/carry season and even more rare for a RB to repeat the feat. Most of the time there is nowhere for an RB to go but down after a 370-f/carry season. It’s not that these RBs always come back with bad years—but they too often fail to live up to expectation. You should consider that statistical history says it’s highly unlikely for RBs coming off 370 seasons to attain a similar number of f/carries. If you account for that in your projections and rankings, you may find a more realistic view of the RB landscape

In summary, here are some important points to get from this study:

• Only 5.4% of the time in recent history has there been a heavy workload season. (42 RB seasons out of 771).
  
• Only 16.7% of those 42 seasons has a RB met or exceeded his f/carries after reaching that magical number of 370 f/carries.
  
• 47.6% of these RB missed games after hitting that threshold the previous year.
  
• 23.8% of these RB’s missed at least 4 games opposed to the entire range of starting quality RBs in a ten-year period that only missed a game 36.7% of the time.

Fantasy owners often say “last year’s stats are last year’s stats.” This information as it applies to running backs adds relevance to this cliché. Do not assume that most RBs will meet or increase their f/carries and continue their heavy workload. Adjust your draft strategy and rankings/projections accordingly. If you draft a RB coming off a 370-f/carry season, you may want to get the backup (handcuff) and/or draft running back reserves early. The historical data indicates you have a 1 in 2 chance of needing them for 1-3 games, and a 1 in 4 chance you will need them for at least 4 games.

Of all the information gathered from this analysis the future career production from an RB after reaching the 370-f/carry-threshold is arguably the most telling. "Not wanting to miss out on a big year," shouldn’t be your rationale for ignoring this data. Big year’s (300+ FF pts) following a heavy workload season haven’t happened that often—just 7 times out of 137 opportunities—a whopping 5.1% occurrence. What’s worse is three of them were from the NFL’s all time leading rusher and most prolific FF player. Further, what would be considered FF production validating a top-12 pick (around 250+ FF points, 1700 total yds/13tds) has happened just 36 times out of 137 opportunities (26.2%). Those are long odds for a player that will likely cost you a high first round pick in your FF drafts.

Who Are We Talking About In ‘06?
Okay, let’s ‘get down to brass tacks’ as they say…who are we talking about in ‘06? Some fantasy footballers are expecting bounce back years from the following players:

• Ahman Green
  
• Jamal Lewis
  
• Curtis Martin
  
• Deuce McAllister

But the historical data suggests there is a 73.8% chance (101 of 137) that these players will not even attain 200 fpts (1500 total yds/8tds)!

The RBs listed below had 370-f/carry seasons last year and are among the consensus top-6 picks in most leagues. I want to reiterate the point of this collected data and analysis.

It is not to say conclusively that you shouldn’t draft a RB coming off a 370-f/carry season, but consider the data and be aware of the odds when drafting one of these players. Watch and note a player’s team and individual situation, and adjust draft strategy or rankings/projections accordingly.

The following backs reached the 370-f/carry, threshold last year:

Tiki Barber 357 carries and 54 receptions = 384 f/carries
Barber’s career total of f/carries is currently 2153. Other RBs with similar styles Marcus Allen (‘86) and Thurman Thomas (‘94) experienced a significant drop off in production after a 370- f/carry season and after reaching 2100 career, f/carries. Some cursory research on RB production drop off after age 30, has yielded just 1 of 20+ backs that warranted a top twelve pick after age 32. This may suggest that Barber may at last hit the wall as many have predicted the past couple of years. If drafting Barber, I urge you to follow the Giants’ situation closely during preseason. You should also grab either Brandon Jacob or Dedric Ward late in your drafts.

Edgerrin James 360 carries/44 receptions = 382 f/carries
James is an anomaly as far as RBs that have attained 370 f/carries. First he’s actually done it 3 times during his career. Further he was among the few that actually had productive years 250+ FF points—he has done it 3 times. Still, James eclipsed the 2100 f/carries for his career (2366) last season. With that said, I would expect James to experience a 10%-20% decrease in production due to missed time—likely 2 games. Further to err on side of caution, dare I suggest you draft J.J. Arrington late in your drafts?

Shaun Alexander 370 carries/15 receptions = 378 f/carries
And as significant as Barber and James are for the upcoming fantasy season, Alexander is one of the Big 3 and arguably the most significant of them. This will be an unpopular statement in the FF community, but there are many items pointing toward a disappointing season for Alexander in ‘06. He makes the list of backs reaching the 370-f/carry, threshold. His 1811 career f/carries is right there with Walter Payton ('80), Jerome Bettis ('98), and Terrell Davis ('99)—all three experienced a significant decrease in their FF production. Alexander also came off a career year in carries, yards, and tds. Then there is the recent history of poor follow up seasons for the losing Super Bowl, the loss of his pro-bowl guard Steve Hutchinson, and do I need to mention the Madden Curse? After this recent research, I’m honestly not sure what I’ll do if Alexander falls to me in my real drafts. If you do decide to pick Alexander, or even if you don’t, I strongly suggest drafting Maurice Morris.