8/2/06
As we enter the early stages of the '06 fantasy football season
many owners are piecing together their rankings and projections.
To help with the RB evaluation process, here is a study of "RB
Studs," and how they perform the following year after a heavy
workload the previous season. What percentage of these "heavy"
RBs continue to put up big numbers? Shaun Alexander, Tiki Barber,
Edgerrin James were all big RB producers a year ago... what can
we expect from them in '06? In order to answer these questions,
let’s go back in time and take a look at other RBs with similar
heavy workloads and see how they produced the following year.
To analyze the relationship between the number of carries in
a given season and production the following year, we need some
standards. We obviously need the total number of carries for each
RB, but we also need to factor in receptions. Let's make things
simple and go with the following equivalencies:
1 carry = 1 carry
1 reception = .5 carry
The rationale for the reception equivalency is receptions still
account for “wear and tear,” but less so than carries.
With a rushing attempt, it is more common for several players
to tackle a RB and those players are often bigger and stronger—defensive
linemen and linebackers. I used these equivalencies as the basis
for my research and will refer to that total of these two types
of attempts as f/carries—formulated carries.
We also need to define what constitutes a "Heavy Workload,"
for a RB. I tried several different numbers for this formula and
settled on 370 f/carries as the benchmark. It netted
27 RBs that reached 370 f/carries a grand total of 42 times over
past 27 years. The following are an update of the last two seasons,
the results of data, my own conclusions, and which RBs could be
affected in ‘06.
Recent Seasons
The original article of this analysis was done before
the ‘04 season. Here are results for backs that attained
the benchmark carries in the ’03 or ’04 season and
how they performed the following year.
RB Workloads 2003-2004 |
Player |
Years |
F/Carries
Yr 1 |
Fpts
Yr1 |
F/Carries
Yr2 |
Fpts
Yr2 |
Change |
Gms Missed |
Ricky Williams* |
03-04 |
417 |
232 |
0 |
0 |
100% |
16 |
Jamal Lewis |
03-04 |
400 |
310 |
240 |
153 |
51% |
4 |
Ahman Green |
03-04 |
380 |
344 |
279 |
191 |
44% |
1 |
Deuce McAllister |
03-04 |
386 |
263 |
286 |
183 |
30% |
2 |
Curtis Martin |
04-05 |
392 |
277 |
232 |
114 |
59% |
4 |
Average |
|
389.5 |
299 |
259.25 |
160 |
46% |
2.75 |
|
*Suspended--Did Not Play. Excluded from
sample and average.
There
aren’t many players that reach this benchmark, but for those
that do, they saw a decrease in fantasy production of these players.
Each player had a decrease in carries/receptions, a decreased
ff production, and missed time. This is actually quite indicative
of the overall historical trend and data for Rbs after attaining
a 370-f/carries season.
Here’s a more historical perspective that includes the
above RBs (but again excluding Ricky Williams) in the overall
data:
Games Missed for RBs coming off a 370-F/Carry
Season
For comparison I looked at the top 30 fantasy runners over the
past 10 seasons. There were 108 backs (a total of 36% of the 300
backs sampled) that missed at least one game during a given season.
The likelihood of a back reaching the heavy workload benchmark
is significantly higher in his following season:
- 24 of 42 (57.1%) Heavy Workload RBs missed at least
1 game
- 11 of 42 (26.2%) Heavy Workload RBs missed 1-3 games
- 12 of 42 (28.6%) Heavy Workload RBs missed 4+ games
What it means: The data suggests
that RBs coming off a 370-f/carry season are more likely to miss
time due to injury than a typical RB in a given year. They are
over 1.5 times more likely to miss 1 game (57.1% vs. 36.0%) and
nearly as likely to miss over 4 games as the rest of the sample
was to miss a single game.
F/Carries and injury for RBs coming off
a 370-f/carry season
Here are the ten-year totals for f/carries the season after a
RB attains the heavy workload f/carry benchmark:
- 7 of 42 (16.7%) RBs had an increase in f/carries (In
fact, the increase was a significant gain of +17.2 f/carries)
- 35 of 42 (83.3%) RBs had a decrease in f/carries
- RBs that missed at least a game had an average decrease
of -82.3 f/carries for the season
- Even if the RB didn’t miss a game the overall workload
decreased by an average of -28.4 f/carries
Overall, 20 of 26 (76.9%) RBs that didn’t miss a game in
the season after they reached the heavy workload benchmark experienced
a decrease in f/carries.
What it means: RBs coming off
a season where they attained the heavy workload benchmark of 370
f/carries experienced a decreased in f/carries nearly 8 out of
10 times—even when remaining healthy. When doing projections
or rankings of the top tier backs it’s useful to consider
this data. The difference may be nominal even if you go with the
conservative estimate of deducting 24.8 f/carries from any player
reaching that 370-f/carry, heavy workload benchmark from the previous
year, but it will likely yield more accurate projections for your
draft.
RB Fantasy Production Following a 370-f/carry
Season
During the past ten seasons, an overwhelming majority of heavy
workload backs from the previous year see a drop in production.
Here’s the breakdown:
Dropping Like Flies |
Production Change |
Total Rbs |
Met Criteria |
Pct. Of Rbs |
Resulting Fantasy Production |
Same or better |
42 |
7 |
16.70% |
At least 300 fpts |
Drop of 1%-10% |
42 |
5 |
11.90% |
270-299 fpts |
Drop of 11%-20% |
42 |
2 |
4.80% |
240-269 fpts |
Drop of 21%-30% |
42 |
11 |
26.20% |
210-239 fpts |
Drop of 31%-40% |
42 |
6 |
14.30% |
180-209 fpts |
Drop of 41%-50% |
42 |
5 |
11.90% |
150-179 fpts |
Drop of over 50% |
42 |
6 |
14.30% |
At most 149 fpts |
|
What it means: In a ten-year
span, only 12 of 42 (28.5%) backs either met or experienced only
a slight decrease (10% or less) in their previous season’s
production. In contrast, 30 of 42 (71.5%) backs during that same
period of time experienced at least a 20% decrease in their fantasy
production.
Future Career FF Production Of a 370 f/Carry
RB
Once a RB has a heavy workload season (370 f/carries), what can
we expect from him the rest of his career? Again, we'll turn to
this ten-year historical window where there have been a total
of 137 seasons that occurred after these 42 backs posted a heavy
workload year. This should give us an idea of whether the RB has
reached his peak after such a big year.
Future Career Production |
Production Change |
Total Rbs |
Met Criteria |
Pct. Of Rbs |
200 fpts |
137 |
36 |
26.30% |
200-249 fpts |
137 |
19 |
13.90% |
250-299 fpts |
137 |
10 |
7.30% |
300-349 fpts |
137 |
4 |
2.90% |
350+ fpts |
137 |
3 |
2.20% |
|
What it means: Only 5.1% of
backs ever attained 300+ fpts again once they already produced
at 370-f/carry season (approximately 2100 total yds/15tds). Even
when you lower the expectations to 250+ fpts (1700 total yds/13tds)
the number only rises to 12.3%. You actually have to considerably
lower your expectations to 200 fpts (1500totyds/8tds) just to
see a little more than 1 out of 4 (26.2%) heavy producers ever
reach that workload again.
Even more startling is you can count the number of players that
repeatedly reached the highest levels of RB fantasy production
on one hand! Emmitt Smith alone was responsible for three of the
seven seasons with 300+ points. And of the ten times where backs
reached the 250-299 point-mark more than once, seven of these
seasons came from three players: Walter Payton (3), Curtis Martin
(2), and Eric Dickerson (2).
Conclusions
RBs coming off 370-f/carry seasons have a lot of statistical data
working against them. But we Fantasy Footballers have heard similar,
and discouraging data before: "5 of 10 players will fall
out of top10 each year," and "‘WRs do poorly their
first year with a new team." What’s important to note
is that these statistics deal in probabilities and are not infallible
from year to year.
Yes, 5 backs may drop out of top 10 in a given year. But next
year it may be 3, the year after that could be 6, and then only
be 3 again for the following season. The point of such data is
not to say, "Don’t draft last year’s top RB(s)
coming off a 370-f/carry season," but to consider the data,
and be aware of the probabilities working against you when drafting
one of these players. Watch and note a player’s team and
individual situation and adjust draft strategy or rankings/projections
accordingly.
It’s rare to have a 370-f/carry season and even more rare
for a RB to repeat the feat. Most of the time there is nowhere
for an RB to go but down after a 370-f/carry season. It’s
not that these RBs always come back with bad years—but they
too often fail to live up to expectation. You should consider
that statistical history says it’s highly unlikely for RBs
coming off 370 seasons to attain a similar number of f/carries.
If you account for that in your projections and rankings, you
may find a more realistic view of the RB landscape
In summary, here are some important points to get from this study:
- Only 5.4% of the time in recent history has there been
a heavy workload season. (42 RB seasons out of 771).
- Only 16.7% of those 42 seasons has a RB met or exceeded
his f/carries after reaching that magical number of 370 f/carries.
- 47.6% of these RB missed games after hitting that threshold
the previous year.
- 23.8% of these RB’s missed at least 4 games opposed
to the entire range of starting quality RBs in a ten-year period
that only missed a game 36.7% of the time.
Fantasy owners often say “last year’s stats are last
year’s stats.” This information as it applies to running
backs adds relevance to this cliché. Do not assume that
most RBs will meet or increase their f/carries and continue their
heavy workload. Adjust your draft strategy and rankings/projections
accordingly. If you draft a RB coming off a 370-f/carry season,
you may want to get the backup (handcuff) and/or draft running
back reserves early. The historical data indicates you have a
1 in 2 chance of needing them for 1-3 games, and a 1 in 4 chance
you will need them for at least 4 games.
Of all the information gathered from this analysis the future
career production from an RB after reaching the 370-f/carry-threshold
is arguably the most telling. "Not wanting to miss out on
a big year," shouldn’t be your rationale for ignoring
this data. Big year’s (300+ FF pts) following a heavy workload
season haven’t happened that often—just 7 times out
of 137 opportunities—a whopping 5.1% occurrence. What’s
worse is three of them were from the NFL’s all time leading
rusher and most prolific FF player. Further, what would be considered
FF production validating a top-12 pick (around 250+ FF points,
1700 total yds/13tds) has happened just 36 times out of 137 opportunities
(26.2%). Those are long odds for a player that will likely cost
you a high first round pick in your FF drafts.
Who Are We Talking About In ‘06?
Okay, let’s ‘get down to brass tacks’ as they
say…who are we talking about in ‘06? Some fantasy
footballers are expecting bounce back years from the following
players:
- Ahman Green
- Jamal Lewis
- Curtis Martin
- Deuce McAllister
But the historical data suggests there is a 73.8% chance (101
of 137) that these players will not even attain 200 fpts (1500
total yds/8tds)!
The RBs listed below had 370-f/carry seasons last year and are
among the consensus top-6 picks in most leagues. I want to reiterate
the point of this collected data and analysis.
It is not to say conclusively that you shouldn’t draft a
RB coming off a 370-f/carry season, but consider the data and
be aware of the odds when drafting one of these players. Watch
and note a player’s team and individual situation, and adjust
draft strategy or rankings/projections accordingly.
The following backs reached the 370-f/carry, threshold last year:
Tiki Barber 357 carries and 54 receptions
= 384 f/carries
Barber’s career total of f/carries is currently 2153. Other
RBs with similar styles Marcus Allen (‘86) and Thurman Thomas
(‘94) experienced a significant drop off in production after
a 370- f/carry season and after reaching 2100 career, f/carries.
Some cursory research on RB production drop off after age 30,
has yielded just 1 of 20+ backs that warranted a top twelve pick
after age 32. This may suggest that Barber may at last hit the
wall as many have predicted the past couple of years. If drafting
Barber, I urge you to follow the Giants’ situation closely
during preseason. You should also grab either Brandon Jacob or
Dedric Ward late in your drafts.
Edgerrin James 360 carries/44 receptions
= 382 f/carries
James is an anomaly as far as RBs that have attained 370 f/carries.
First he’s actually done it 3 times during his career. Further
he was among the few that actually had productive years 250+ FF
points—he has done it 3 times. Still, James eclipsed the
2100 f/carries for his career (2366) last season. With that said,
I would expect James to experience a 10%-20% decrease in production
due to missed time—likely 2 games. Further to err on side
of caution, dare I suggest you draft J.J. Arrington late in your
drafts?
Shaun Alexander 370 carries/15 receptions
= 378 f/carries
And as significant as Barber and James are for the upcoming
fantasy season, Alexander is one of the Big 3 and arguably the
most significant of them. This will be an unpopular statement
in the FF community, but there are many items pointing toward
a disappointing season for Alexander in ‘06. He makes
the list of backs reaching the 370-f/carry, threshold. His 1811
career f/carries is right there with Walter Payton ('80), Jerome
Bettis ('98), and Terrell Davis ('99)—all three experienced
a significant decrease in their FF production. Alexander also
came off a career year in carries, yards, and tds. Then there
is the recent history of poor follow up seasons for the losing
Super Bowl, the loss of his pro-bowl guard Steve Hutchinson,
and do I need to mention the Madden Curse? After this recent
research, I’m honestly not sure what I’ll do if
Alexander falls to me in my real drafts. If you do decide to
pick Alexander, or even if you don’t, I strongly suggest
drafting Maurice Morris.
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