9/30/08
- Michael
Turner owners - told you so. Here's the recap - he's been
great at home against bad defenses (Detroit and Kansas City)
and horrible on the road against decent defenses (Tampa Bay
and Carolina). With the Packers, Bears, Eagles and Raiders up
next, Turner should be on your bench until week 10 against the
Saints.
- Pierre
Thomas owners - told you so. Thomas went into hibernation
this week against the 49ers, getting only one touch after his
middling short yardage performance during the team's first three
games. Stats can be deceiving and while Thomas had scored three
touchdowns, the Saints weren't impressed with his ability to
move the pile. Hence the decision to demote Thomas in favor
of Deuce
McAllister who looked solid this week. However, with McAllister
a known injury risk, Thomas could be back in the rotation at
any time.
- Missed on Bryant
Johnson as the 49ers receiver most likely to benefit from
the team's resurgent passing attack but his poor performance
was likely the result of a balky hamstring. Don't expect Arnaz
Battle to post another 100-yard game this season. It took
him 68 games to get his first one so his next scheduled 100-yard
game is sometime in 2012.
- Larry
Johnson had another big game this week but his fantasy football
profile more resembles Michael Turner's than one of the top
running backs. Johnson has put up big games against the Falcons
and Broncos (poor rushing defenses) but did nothing against
the Patriots or Raiders. Expect the pattern to continue.
- Ditto for Cardinals wide receiver Steve
Breaston who went off for nine receptions and 122 yards
this week (also his first 100-yard performance), although his
prospects are marginally better than Battle's provided fellow
wideout Anquan
Boldin is out for an extended period. Breaston is a decent
third receiver but clearly benefits from the attention afforded
Boldin and Larry
Fitzgerald. It says here, at this stage of his career Breaston
wouldn't produce big numbers against starting cornerbacks.
-
Lewis has scored 1 TD and is averaging
3.4 yards per carry.
Browns running back Jamal
Lewis has really struggled this year, posting just 3.4 yards
per carry and finding the end zone only once. Lewis has received
extra attention from opposing defenses given the absence of
wide receiver Donte Stallworth and the poor performance of quarterback
Derek
Anderson. Lewis was expected to have a big year with Stallworth's
speed added to the team's offensive arsenal and the return of
all five starters along the offensive line. However, it hasn't
happened and the horizon isn't all that bright with the Giants,
Redskins, Jaguars and Ravens next up after the team's week five
bye.
- Keeping with the Browns, owners of struggling wide receiver
Braylon
Edwards and tight end Kellen
Winslow might want to take note of the schedule point noted
above. Edwards might be the biggest fantasy bust of 2008 by
the time the season is over.
- Bengals quarterback Carson
Palmer's fantasy football value couldn't be much lower given
his poor performance this year and his absence this week due
to an elbow injury. Palmer gets suspended receiver Chris
Henry back this week but he will suit up based on game readiness
and he has not been allowed to practice with the team during
his four game suspension. Based on that and Henry's lack of
maturity, it will be a major surprise if he is ready to go this
week. Nonetheless, Palmer is certainly a buy low candidate.
Of course, the other side of the argument is that he has thrown
for only six touchdowns over his last eight games.
- The Rams sent head coach Scott Linehan packing this week
and that certainly can't be considered a surprise given the
team had lost 17 of its last 20 games and was 11-25 during his
tenure. Coaches are often judged on their ability to adjust
and react to opponent's game plans and the statistic that best
reflects this ability is a team's performance in the second
halves of games after halftime adjustments have been made. The
Rams have not been competitive after halftime and last season
the Rams were outscored 147-40 in the fourth quarter. This season
they have been outscored 56-10 in the fourth quarter. Two of
Linehan's desperation moves this week were the benching of quarterback
Marc Bulger
and the release of starting cornerback Fakhir
Brown. Both moves backfired badly with Trent
Green throwing a decisive interception that was returned
by Jabari
Greer for a touchdown and Brown replacement, Jason
Craft, subsequently getting burned on a long touchdown to
Lee Evans that effectively sealed the loss.
- With Jim Haslett taking over for Linehan, look for quarterback
Marc Bulger
to be back behind center after the team's week five bye. Trent
Green played reasonably well against Buffalo but with the team
not in contention for a playoff spot this year, there is little
point in going with a 38-year old quarterback over a younger
one who signed a $60-million contract extension prior to the
2007 season.
- Speaking of poor fourth quarters and coaches getting fired,
come on down, Lane Kiffin. Kiffin's Raiders have blown fourth
quarter leads in consecutive weeks, losing by ten this week
to the Chargers after leading 15-3 heading into the fourth quarter.
This performance followed last week's one point loss to the
Bills where the team was ahead by nine with a quarter remaining.
Kiffin's major league public relations campaign may have some
effect on the team's fan base but blowing late leads cost him
his job and both issues are likely going to cost him a chance
at coaching another NFL team.
- Based on the performance of his team's offensive line, don't
expect 49ers quarterback J.T.
O'Sullivan to make it through the season healthy. After
giving up six sacks to New Orleans, the 49ers have given up
19 in just four games which puts them on pace to equal the Houston
Texans record for most sacks allowed in a season at 76. New
Orleans had recorded just four sacks over their first three
games while the Seahawks teed off on the 49ers for eight sacks
after registering only two in their first two games. Right tackle
Barry Sims has struggled replacing Jonas Jennings while starting
guards Adam Snyder and Tony Wragge are in danger of losing their
jobs to David Baas and rookie 2nd round pick Chilo Rachal. Next
up for the 49ers - the Patriots, Eagles, Giants and then the
Seahawks again.
- Keeping with the 49ers, from a fantasy football perspective,
it looks like their wide receivers and tight ends may be the
equivalent of the Broncos offensive backfield. Each week it's
a different player. Vernon
Davis was their leading receiver/tight end in week one followed
by Isaac
Bruce, Delanie
Walker and now Arnaz
Battle.
- Even with Terrell
Owens being targeted 17 times this week (not to mention
his two carries), Cowboys wide receiver Patrick
Crayton was back in the team's game plan against the Redskins.
After being targeted only three times over the past two games
(none against the Packers last week), Crayton managed seven
receptions for 87 yards this week. Expect Cowboys offensive
coordinator Jason Garrett to get Crayton more involved in the
coming weeks but he remains a hit or miss player.
- Keeping with the Cowboys, it was interesting how quickly
the team abandoned the run this week. The Redskins are middle
of the pack in terms of rushing yards allowed per game but have
given up 4.3 yards per carry on the ground. Presumably running
back Marion
Barber's absence from the offense won't occur too often
this season.
- Although Aaron Rodger's shoulder issues are a concern, it's
difficult to fathom the thought of trading Greg
Jennings from your fantasy roster but it might be time to
part ways with fellow wideout Donald
Driver. Driver has clearly been usurped by Jennings as the
team's top receiver, has scored just one touchdown in his last
17 games and is losing touches to youngsters Jordy Nelson, the
team's 2nd round pick this year, and James
Jones, last year's 3rd round pick. With general manger Ted
Thompson clearly committed to players he has drafted, it says
here this isn't just a coincidence.
- Keeping with the Packers, does anybody know where Donald
Lee is? After posting a career high 575 yards and six touchdowns
last season, Lee has become an afterthought this year in Green
Bay. Lee ranked as a low end starting tight end for fantasy
purposes heading into the season or as a solid backup but his
lack of involvement in the game plan has left him unworthy of
hanging on to.
- The Vikings run defense took a hit this week with the loss
of middle linebacker E.J.
Henderson. One of the more underrated middle linebackers
in the league, Henderson has been a solid performer for the
past two years and a solid starter in IDP leagues. He will likely
be out four to six weeks with two dislocated toes and the team
will move either unheralded David Herron into his spot or starting
outside linebacker Ben
Leber. If Leber moves into the middle, he could be a decent
addition in an IDP league.
- Cardinals quarterback Kurt
Warner struggled this week and, as is always the case when
Warner has a bad game, the focus shifted to whether he would
retain his job. Simply put, Warner has moved the team on offense
and although the turnovers are clearly a problem, he gives the
team the best chance to win. Backup Matt
Leinart will move into the starter's spot at some point
but that only happens this year if Warner goes down with an
injury.
- Broncos wide receiver Brandon
Marshall has been on fire since returning from his one week
suspension, picking up close to 400 yards and three touchdowns
over three games. However, the Chiefs managed to slow him down
somewhat this week with consistent double-teaming. Marshall
still managed 77 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions but
the beneficiaries of the Chiefs strategy were fellow wideouts
Eddie
Royal and Brandon
Stokley, not tight end Tony
Scheffler. Royal had 104 yards on nine receptions while
Stokley went for 80 yards on seven receptions. Don't be surprised
if Royal, the team's 2nd round pick this year, hits the rookie
wall and Stokley and Scheffler benefit later in the season.
- Keeping with the Broncos, head coach Mike Shanahan probably
wishes he didn't give up on nickelback Dominique Foxworth prior
to the season. Shanahan traded Foxworth to the Falcons, choosing
instead to go with Karl
Paymah at that spot. Paymah was benched in the middle of
this week's game against the Chiefs (who have perhaps the league's
worst group of wide receivers), in favor of rookie Jack
Williams. Obviously, opposing offenses are going to target
the Broncos nickelbacks due to the strength of the team's starting
cornerbacks, Champ
Bailey and Dre
Bly.
- Look for the Saints to get wide receiver Robert
Meachem more involved in the coming weeks. The team has
kept it simple for the second year wideout due to his inexperience
and he has clearly benefited from having specific plays inserted
in the game plan for him to run. That being said, he has five
receptions for 204 yards and two touchdowns and has only been
targeted six times. That kind of production will be hard for
head coach Sean Payton to ignore.
- There were some concerns amongst Titans officials regarding
the ability of defensive tackle Albert
Haynesworth to produce a second consecutive outstanding
season. This was the main reason the team chose to place the
franchise tag on him and not attempt to get a long-term contract
worked out. However, four games into the season, Haynesworth
looks like a lock to win the league's most outstanding defensive
player of the year award (he finished tied for second with Patrick
Kerney behind Bob Sanders in 2007). He has five sacks and a
forced fumble in four games, despite being double-teamed on
nearly every play.
- If you've been hanging on to Bears defensive end Mark
Anderson in your IDP league in the hopes he would rediscover
the production he displayed in his rookie season in 2006, it
might be time to cut bait. Anderson tumbled to 4.5 sacks in
2007 after posting 12.5 sacks in 2007. The Bears demoted Alex
Brown in favor of Anderson last season but switched their
roles this season based on Anderson's lack of production as
a starter. However, Anderson is still struggling and has recorded
a half-sack over his last 14 games.
- Vikings safety Madieu
Williams was scheduled to return to action this week after
missing the team's first four games due to a neck injury. However,
his return has been pushed back an additional two weeks making
his return more likely to occur after the team's week 8 bye.
Williams signing as well as the trade for defensive end Jared
Allen was supposed to make the team's already stout defense
even better but it looks like we will have to wait until the
season's second half before determining if this result materializes.
- If you've got Jets rookie tight end Dustin
Keller in a dynasty league and were discouraged to hear
the news about Chris
Baker's contact extension, a closer look reveals the contract
may actually expedite Baker's departure from the team. Provided
he plays in 50% of the team's offensive plays, the contract
calls for $9-million in guaranteed salary provided the Jets
exercise an option in the contract. Basically, if he plays in
50% of the team's plays and Keller avoids injury, the Jets will
part ways with the continually discontented Baker.
- Jaguars wide receiver Jerry
Porter made his debut with the team this week, catching
a single pass for seven yards. Porter was sidelined during much
of training camp and the early part of the season with a hamstring
injury and the team is apparently losing patience with their
prized free agent acquisition. Given his track record of having
a poor attitude and work ethic, his lack of urgency to get back
on the field shouldn't come as such a surprise. What's more
surprising is that a team that fancies itself as a lunch bucket
type of team (remember the chopping wood theme) would bother
adding a nuisance like Porter to their roster.
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