10/29/08
- Here's why teams don't need to waste high draft picks and
precious salary cap space on quarterbacks - NFL Europe grads
Kurt Warner and Jake Delhomme combined for 629 yards passing
and four touchdowns during this week's Cardinals-Panthers showdown.
Playing in his 100th game, Warner, in particular, had a huge
day with 381 yards passing against a Panthers pass defense that
entered the game ranked 2nd in the league. The 300-yard performance
gave him 44 such games over his career and the title as the
NFL's most prolific 300-yard passer in the history of the league.
- Moving on to Warner's replacement in St. Louis, Rams quarterback
Marc Bulger enjoyed his best day of the year with 301 yards
passing to go along with a touchdown and an interception. Stats
aside, it's remarkable to contrast the play of Warner and Bulger.
Whereas Warner consistently stands in the pocket and takes huge
shots in order to make a play, Bulger is playing like a little
girl, refusing to set his feet to deliver the ball even in key
situations. His mechanics are awful and until they are corrected,
he doesn't stand a chance of returning to his Pro Bowl calibre
of play. Throw in his poor relationship with former coach Scott
Linehan, his lack of clutch plays and his often poor body language
with frequent displays of frustration and slumped shoulders
and it's clear the Rams blew it when they doled out a massive
long-term contract extension to him.
- Chiefs running back Larry Johnson has a meeting with NFL
commissioner Roger Goodell this week to explain his history
of off the field incidents. With Goodell carrying the torch
as the league's Mr. Squeaky Clean, it says here that Johnson
will be facing a suspension in the not too distant future. With
the Chiefs having already having deactivated him twice and a
suspension looming, it's extremely prudent not to be relying
on Johnson over the balance of the FF season, particularly in
the playoffs. With rookie 3rd round pick Jamaal Charles likely
out for a number of weeks with a high ankle sprain, the bulk
of the running duties will fall to Kolby Smith. Smith hasn't
been effective, gaining only 2.2 yards per carry but the majority
of his carries have come against the Jets and Titans, who rank
4th and 10th in rushing yards against per game. Johnson's future
in Kansas City is in question so Smith and Charles are solid
pickups in keeper leagues.
- It's been mentioned here before that it's time to give up
on 49ers tight end Vernon Davis and his confrontation with new
head coach Mike Singletary this week only confirms that thought.
Singletary lashed out at Davis over his seeming indifferent
attitude towards taking an unnecessary roughness penalty after
picking up a seven-yard reception this week against Seattle.
Singletary subsequently sent Davis to the showers and it's quite
possible he'll be sent to the bench this week. Singletary is
obviously trying to change the culture in San Francisco and
that effort has included making an example of Davis, whose inflated
ego doesn't come close to matching his production on the field.
The team has been touting the play of backup tight end Delanie
Walker all season and there's a good chance he will move into
the starting line-up ahead of the mercurial Davis.
- Last week, you read about Rams receiver Donnie Avery's increased
performance and his production this week backed that up. With
Torry Holt suffering from some combination of injury, lack of
motivation or being on the downside of hiss career, Avery has
clearly been the team's best receiver over the past three weeks
and that doesn't figure to change over the balance of the season.
If he's available in your league, pick him up, particularly
if it's a keeper league.
- Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers continued his recent trend
of good game, bad game with a 341 yard, three touchdown, one
interception performance against the Saints this week. With
Antonio Gates' injury concerns now behind him, Chris Chambers
back in the lineup and LaDainian Tomlinson back to form, look
for Rivers' performance to improve over the balance of the season.
- Drew
Brees had another dynamite game and solidified his candidacy
for league MVP. Playing with a banged up Jeremy
Shockey, an ineffective Marques
Colston (two receptions for 56 yards since his return two
games ago from a thumb injury) and running back Reggie
Bush out of the lineup, Brees threw for 339 yards and a
touchdown with no interceptions with the majority of his targets
going to wide receiver Lance
Moore and backup tight end Billy
Miller.
- Keeping with the Saints, Miller may be an interesting player
over the next few games as Shockey attempts to recover from
a nagging groin injury. The Saints have a bye this week which
will provide additional recovery time for Shockey but he doesn't
appear in sync with Brees and is on pace to finish with a little
over 400 yards receiving and no touchdowns. The Saints are featuring
different players each week in the passing game, Shockey hasn't
been productive or healthy and Reggie Bush figures to consume
a number of targets when he returns. Don't be surprised if Miller
continues to outperform Shockey until Bush returns and Shockey
regains his health.
- Panthers wide receiver Steve
Smith posted respectable numbers over his first three games
of the season after returning from two game suspension. However,
he has been dynamite over the past three weeks, topping 100
yards each week and while totaling 351 yards and three touchdowns.
Even more remarkable is that Smith is amongst the league leaders
in drops indicating he had some rust to knock off from his time
off. Better yet, the Panthers have the Raiders, Lions, Falcons,
Packers and Broncos among the teams remaining on their schedule
Based on the above, expect big things from Smith over the remainder
of the season.
- Feel free to dump 49ers quarterback J.T.
O'Sullivan from your FF roster. New head coach Mike Singletary
is going to insist on a reducing number of turnovers and negative
plays from the teams offense and O'Sullivan has given up more
interceptions, fumbles and sacks than any quarterback in the
league. Barring injury, Shaun
Hill will remain the team's starter for the remainder of
the season.
- Redskins running back Clinton Portis has had an MVP caliber
season and is clearly undergoing a renaissance type season in
Washington but there are clouds on the horizon because he can't
seem to shake nagging hip and ankle injuries and he has carried
a heavy workload. Head coach Jim Zorn gave a number of carries
in this week's game against the Lions to recently signed Shaun
Alexander but Portis still finished with 25 touches, which is
his average for the season. There has to be at least a little
concern that the rookie head coach is overusing his workhorse
but with 121, 145, 129, 176 and 126 yards rushing over the past
five weeks, it's easy to see why he's continuing to give Portis
the ball. Portis' five week tally of 120 plus rushing yards
per game makes him the first running back since Larrry Johnson
to top the 120 yard plateau five games in a row.
- Texans quarterback Matt Schaub has posted respectable numbers
over the past three weeks, throwing for 926 yards and six touchdowns
against two interceptions. However, if you're thinking of picking
him up for the stretch run, you might want to remind yourself
that he wasp precariously close to being benched and would have
been if not for backup Sage Rosenfel's disastrous fourth quarter
against the Colts.
- If you have Cowboys tight end Jason Witten on your FF roster,
don't confuse his being able to play with his being able to
play productively. Witten apparently has broken ribs and plans
on attempting to play through the pain this week and presumably
over the remainder of the season. Although he is clearly one
of the toughest players in the league and has only missed one
game during his career, it is highly unlikely he will be able
to play to his potential. Basically, he is going to feel pain
every time he attempts to make a sharp cut which is going to
hinder his ability to create separation on his routes. It might
be worth holding onto him for a week and seeing how he plays
this week but after that it might be time to sell high on him
and/or see what's available on the waiver wire.
- Sticking with injured tight ends, L.J.
Smith of the Eagles suffered a concussion this week courtesy
of a late hit by Falcons safety Lawyer Milloy. Even with the
team's starting wide receivers out for most of the season (Reggie
Brown and Kevin
Curtis have combined to play in only four games), Smith
has failed to produce, recording just 12 receptions for 106
yards and two touchdowns. The team's interest in the Chiefs
Tony Gonzalez
is solid proof of their lack of faith in Smith and likely means
he won't be an Eagle in 2009. With Curtis now back in the lineup,
running back Brian
Westbrook healthy and Brown close to returning, it's time
to jettison Smith from your FF roster. If he can't produce with
those players out, he's not going to produce when they're playing.
- Keep an eye out for the effect a massive number of suspensions
could have on your FF roster. Speculation is that players thought
to have positive diuretic tests include Saints running back
Deuce
McAllister, Saints defensive ends Will
Smith and Charles
Grant, Vikings defensive tackles Pat
Williams and Kevin
Williams and Falcons defensive tackle Grady
Jackson. Saints guard Jamar Nesbit has already finished
a four-game suspension and is suing the maker of the weight
loss supplement that caused his positive test. In addition,
McAllister has admitted that the investigation has been going
on for a while. Based on the information currently available,
it seems likely that the league will hand out suspensions in
the near future meaning these players will likely be out a portion
of most FF playoff schedules. Plan accordingly.
- Ted
Ginn Jr. of the Dolphins finally showed a glimpse of why
the team used the 10th pick of the 2007 draft on the diminutive
wide receiver, going off for 175 yards on seven receptions this
week against the Bills. On the plus side, Ginn has posted reasonably
decent statistics four of the past five weeks (49, 55, minus
one, 48 and 175 yards) and has hauled in 24 passes on 32 targets,
a solid percentage for a wide receiver. Looking a little closer,
his performance this week came mostly at the expense of Bills
cornerback Terrence McGee who was playing in first game since
missing time due to a knee injury. The read here is that Ginn
will likely have a couple of starter worthy games over the balance
of the season but he shouldn't be counted upon week in and week
out. In keeper leagues, he's likely worth picking up.
- Bucs wide receiver Joey Galloway might be available on the
waiver wire or via trade but it should be buyer beware in terms
of his usefulness. Bucs head coach Jon Gruden said that Galloway
would not return to his regular split end position because of
Antonio Bryant's solid play in that position and he backed that
up this week by moving Galloway around and not playing him exclusively
at split end. It's worth noting that the Bucs thrown an inordinate
amount of their passes to the split end and, while Galloway
will clearly see more passes than Michael Clayton did playing
opposite Galloway, Bryant will likely remain quarterback Jeff
Garcia's main target.
- The Cowboys have been decimated by injuries and suffered
a major blow this week with the loss of cornerback Anthony Henry
to a deep thigh bruise. With Terence Newman out with a groin
injury, Adam Jones suspended and Henry doubtful, the team will
have to employ rookie cornerbacks Mike Jenkins (1st round) and
Orlando Scandrick (5th round) in the starting line-up this week
against the Giants.
- Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt mused this week that rookie
5th round pick Tim Hightower could be inserted into the starting
lineup at some point in place of Edgerrin James. The team has
gotten away from its running game over the past few weeks and
James has only 16 carries over the past two weeks while Hightower
has carried 13 times over the same stretch. Barring a major
resurgence by James, this is likely his last year in Arizona.
- The Raiders running game hasn't been as effective as last
season due to injuries to Justin
Fargas and rookie 1st round pick Darren
McFadden and the team suffered another blow this week when
fullback Justin
Griffith was placed on injured reserve with a torn anterior
cruciate ligament. Griffith isn't the most powerful fullback
but he makes up for his lack of size with a fearless playing
style. With backup fullback Oren O'Neal already on injured reserve,
the team is forced to use either the inexperienced Luke
Lawton (18 career games) or Eagle reject Jason
Davis at the position. Davis has yet to play in an NFL game.
- Here's a buy low candidate - Broncos running back Michael
Pittman. With Selvin
Young and rookie 5th round pick Ryan
Torain ready to return from injuries and Pittman suffering
from bruised ribs, there is plenty of evidence that Pittman
may take a backseat. However, Pittman is built like a rock and
is one of the toughest players in the league which means he
will likely play through the bruised ribs, head coach Mike Shanahan
has said Young will not return to the starting lineup and Shanahan
is unlikely to hand out a significant role to a rookie who has
missed significant time and is one missed block away from ending
the season of franchise quarterback Jay
Cutler. Furthermore, Andre
Hall is in Shanahan's doghouse thanks to two fumbles against
the Patriots and is also injured with a sprained hand.
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