Geno Smith enters the 2015 as the starter for the New York Jets
in what could be a make-or-break season for the former first round
pick from West Virginia. In his first two years in the NFL, Smith
has yet to complete more that 60 percent of his passes or reach
15 or more passing touchdowns in a season. From a fantasy perspective,
Smith appeared to have some value as a rookie when he rushed for
366 yards and six touchdowns. However, that added value from points
on the ground evaporated last year when he managed just one rushing
touchdown on 59 attempts. In his rookie season with the team,
Smith had a subpar supporting cast of wide receivers and skill
position players that undoubtedly made his transition to the NFL
difficult. With the addition of veteran wide receiver Brandon
Marshall in the off-season to go along with Eric Decker and tight
end Jace Amaro, Smith has all the pieces in place to be successful.
Now he must prove that he is the quarterback of the future and
not another early-round quarterback bust for the Jets.
Chris Ivory appears to be the lead tailback for the Jets as the
team heads into training camp, as free-agent addition and former
New England Patriot Stevan Ridley continues to nurse his way back
from an ACL and MCL injury. Ivory posted 821 rushing yards and
a 4.1 yard per carry average in 2014, but managed to top the century
mark only twice in 16 games. He also failed to reach the end zone
in 11 of those 16 games. The injury to Ridley will surely give
Ivory more opportunities for carries in the early part of the
season should Ridley not be able to go, however, the Jets have
a crowded backfield that also includes Zac Stacy, who was traded
to the Jets from the Rams for a seventh-round pick this spring.
Another factor that could lead to less carries for Ivory is the
addition of Chan Gailey as offensive coordinator. Gailey runs
a spread offense that incorporates numerous 11, 10 and 00 sets,
with one and sometimes no tailback on the field. The scheme usually
requires an agile, pass-catching tailback to line up in single-back
sets. That type of offense would favor a smaller back like Bilal
Powell over a bruiser like Ivory. For these reasons, Ivory should
be considered a very low-end number two running back or a flex
play this season.
Ridley signed free agent deal with the Jets after four seasons
with division rival New England. As a member of the patriots,
Ridley had a breakout season in 2012 that included 1263 rushing
yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. A bad case of fumblitis earned
him a spot in Bill Belichick’s doghouse in 2013 and his 2014 campaign
ended prematurely with a devastating ACL and MCL tear against
the Bills last October. He will be eased back into action by the
team in training camp while he recovers from surgery. Once he
returns to form, Ridley will join a crowded backfield that includes
Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell, and newly acquired former Ram Zac Stacy.
Due to the fact that the Jets have a crowded backfield and a
new offensive coordinator in Chan Gailey who runs a spread offense
that favors smaller backs like Powell, neither Ridley nor Ivory
can be considered a viable starter in fantasy unless one of them
earns the clear starting role in camp.
The Jets traded a seventh round pick to the Rams for Stacy after
St. Louis used a first round pick to select tailback Todd Gurley
in the 2015 NFL draft. A disgruntled Stacy asked to be traded
from what appeared to be a crowded backfield to a team in need
of a running back. Unfortunately for Stacy, he was traded to a
team with an equally crowded backfield that does not present much
of a chance to garner many carries this season. Fantasy owners
should not waste a draft pick on Stacy, but keep an eye on him
during the regular season should Ivory and Ridley get injured.
The veteran wide receiver enters his tenth season in the NFL
with his fourth team after an offseason trade that sent Marshall
from the Bears to the Jets for draft picks. In two of his three
seasons with the Bears, Marshall delivered over 100 catches and
at least ten touchdowns while averaging 1350 receiving yards.
His third and final season with the Bears was shortened by injuries
and the disgruntled wide receiver was sent packing by the new
front office in Chicago.
Although Marshall has been a reliable number one fantasy wide
receiver for the majority of his tenure in the league, moving
to the Jets and receiving passes from Geno Smith will certainly
reduce his fantasy prospects for this season. One only needs to
look at the reduced performance of Eric Decker who joined the
Jets last season after enjoying impressive offensive numbers as
a member of the Broncos. Decker posted a career low in touchdowns
(as a starter) in his first season as a Jet. It is possible that
the spread offensive scheme used by new offensive coordinator
Chan Gailey will allow Smith to blossom into a viable NFL quarterback
and give Marshall and Decker an opportunity to put up solid points
this season. It is also a strong possibility that Smith will continue
to struggle, allowing backup Ryan Fitzpatrick to take the reigns
of the offense and provide impressive numbers similar to what
he did as a member of the Bills in 2011, making Marshall a possible
steal in drafts this season.
A third and equally possible scenario is that both quarterbacks
struggle and Marshall becomes disgruntled at his lack of production,
leading to both frustrated fantasy owners and Jet fans. When taking
into account all of these possibilities, it is hard to recommend
him more than a mid number-two fantasy wide receiver this season.
As expected, Decker’s production took a big hit in 2014
after two excellent seasons with the Denver Broncos and Peyton
Manning. Decker’s production drop was across the board in
targets, receptions, yards and receiving touchdowns, as he learned
first-hand just how different Geno Smith and the Jets offense
is compared to Manning and the Broncos. The addition of Brandon
Marshall and new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey will likely
help open the door for Decker to receive less coverage from opposing
defenses and the new spread offense may lead to more passing overall
in New York. Unfortunately, Smith is still the starting quarterback
for the team and the backup and possible replacement in Ryan Fitzpatrick
is not much better. Look for Decker to provide decent production
as a number three wideout in 12-team leagues.
The Jets drafted former Ohio State Buckeye Devin Smith in the
second round of the 2015 NFL draft to provide a much-needed deep
threat for the offense. Smith was one of the most dynamic downfield
threats in college football last season, helping the Buckeyes
secure the national championship. Smith will likely be the fourth
wide receiver on the team behind starters Decker, Marshall, and
Jeremy Kerley, and he will see limited action when he does play.
Should one of the three starters get injured, Smith could become
an interesting mix and match play for owners looking for a home
run threat.
TE – Jace
Amaro (2014 TE Rank – No. 29, 3.6 FPts/G)
Amaro enters 2015 as a possible value pick tight end despite
a less than impressive rookie campaign last season. The former
Texas Tech Red Raider only caught 38 balls for 345 yards and two
touchdowns in 2015, while failing to secure a catch or target
in three of his final six games. At 6’5 and 265 lbs, Amaro
has the size and quickness to beat opposing linebackers and the
height advantage over smaller corners when lined up in the slot.
Of all the players who may benefit from Chan Gailey running a
spread offense, Amaro may be the leader as he played in a similar
offense in college. He may not crack the top-ten for tight ends
this season, but he could be a nice streaming option throughout
the year.
The Jets boast one of the most talented defenses in the NFL,
anchored by an impressive defensive line of Muhammad Wilkerson,
Damon Harrison and Sheldon Richardson, and a secondary of future
hall of fame cornerback Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromarte. With
former Arizona defensive coordinator Todd Bowles taking over for
the departed Rex Ryan, the Jets will continue to be a defensive
oriented team. The question is whether or not they will create
enough turnovers and defensive scores to be a top fantasy defense.
A solid real life defense does not always equate to a solid fantasy
defense unless the team creates turnovers and scores points on
special teams.
