11/17/07
One of the best tools that FF Today provides is the fantasy
football points vs. feature and, more specifically, the remaining
Strength of Schedule.
Using this feature, it is my hope to augment these features and
refine them even further. Over time, it should be proven in this
column that different styles of players score differently against
different opponents. For example, perhaps a possession receiver
makes for a better play against a certain defense as opposed to
a burner despite the fact that the defensive back guarding him is
considered slow. Given the high number of committee running backs
and teams without a clear-cut #1 receiver in the NFL, I feel this
analysis will help owners with roster decisions throughout this
season.
QBs: (1 pt per 25 yds passing;
6 pts for all TDs, -2 pts/INT or fumble)
RBs/WRs/TEs: (1 point per 10
yards rushing/receiving, 6 points per TD)
Note: Teams that have a fantasy
relevant TE will be included. Also, for the first weeks, projected
fantasy points allowed will be used as teams have yet to establish
any trends. After the first month of the season, this column will
take on the look it had last season as there will be enough information
to start analyzing trends.
ARI @ CIN | CAR
@ GB | CLE @ BAL | KC @ IND
| MIA @ PHI | NO @ HOU | OAK
@ MIN | PIT @ NYJ
SD @ JAX | TB @ ATL | WAS
@ DAL | NYG @ DET | STL @
SF | CHI @ SEA | NE @ BUF
| TEN @ DEN
Kurt Warner/Anquan Boldin/Larry Fitzgerald
Edgerrin James (vs. CIN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bengals this season:
Jets
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bengals this season:
Ravens (2)
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 25.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 38.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 16.2
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 13.1/24.3
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 19.3
 Passing
Game Thoughts: How ironic is it that a team that just got
done exploiting an overrated defense (Lions) gets to face a defense
that narrowly missed a shutout the next week, especially when
the latter defense had allowed 19 TD passes in its first eight
games? If you had to choose, you would say the Cardinals offense
have a better chance of living up to their Week 10 performance
for the rest of the season more than the Bengals do. Amazingly,
Arizona does not have a 300-yard passing game to its credit this
season and the Bengals defense has allowed just one. And frankly,
only Baltimore seems to struggle vs. the Bengals secondary as
every other QB has scored 17.9 fantasy points against them. For
the WRs, Fitzgerald seems to be the better bet this week, because
when teams have had good deep threats, they have tortured Cincy.
(Braylon Edwards, Randy Moss, Laveranues Coles and Lee Evans all
went over 20 points against the Bengals this season.)
Running Game Thoughts: Trends develop more slowly than fantasy
owners head to the waiver wire, but James already has more games
with fewer than 20 carries (two) after the Week 8 bye than before
it (one). I’ll chalk that up more to a tough defense (Bucs)
and good passing game matchup last week (Lions) right now. Now,
if James doesn’t get 20 carries in this game, his owners
might have a problem. Only one lead RB has not scored at least
11 fantasy points against the Bengals and, in all honesty, the
Cincinnati offense is struggling to the point that no opposing
offense should really ever need to abandon the running game. All
told, this should be a good week to own a member of the Cardinals
offense.
Projections:
Kurt Warner: 280 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Anquan Boldin: 50 rec/1 TD
Larry Fitzgerald: 100 rec/1 TD
Edgerrin James: 85 rush/1 TD/15 rec
Carson Palmer/Chad Johnson/TJ Houshmandzadeh/Chris
Henry
Rudi Johnson/Kenny Watson (vs. ARI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cardinals this season:
Lions
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Cardinals this season:
N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 15.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 31.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.1/27.1
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 15.7
Passing Game Thoughts: It’s been said that when people
can’t find a reason why an offense is underachieving and
can’t point to the QB, they blame the offensive line. With
Cincy this season, it’s not the full reason but it’s
a good start. Without Henry in the lineup and a line that has
missed way too many games from OTs Levi Jones and Willie Anderson
this season, there has been little rhythm. In general, this offense
has not just lost its mojo; it has lost its aggressiveness lately
as well. The longest of Shayne Graham’s seven field goals
was 35 yards, which means all seven times Cincinnati’s drives
bogged down inside the red zone vs. the Ravens last week. Previous
Bengals’ teams could have made the Ravens pay (especially
with missing two starting CBs) with at least 3-4 scores. Palmer
continues to hit double-digit fantasy points, but has recorded
just two 20-point performances all season long. However, Arizona
has been accommodating to opposing QBs, surrendering 15 or more
fantasy points to the position five times this season. Palmer
isn’t going to have “tank-job” games anytime
soon, but the biggest mystery is whether or not it will take weeks
or until next year before Henry helps this offense re-discover
itself. This matchup is tailor-made for the Cincinnati offense,
however, as deep threats have went to town against the Cardinals.
As such, Chad Johnson (assuming there aren’t any complications
from his neck injury) and Henry should have a great deal of success.
Of course, Houshmandzadeh should still start, but Henry’s
arrival will lower his value somewhat against teams that are as
aggressive as Arizona is on defense.
Running Game Thoughts: Johnson looks to once again be getting
to full health, pushing Watson back to a role similar to Chris
Perry in 2005. Much like it is for the passing game, Arizona is
a good matchup for the run game – from a fantasy perspective.
Only one leading RB (Willie Parker, 6.6) has scored fewer than
nine fantasy points this season. That said, the Cardinals’
defense is allowing only 2.8 yds/rush over their last three games
to opposing RBs, so absent of a completely healthy Bengals’
offensive line, a score is likely the only thing that will make
Johnson produce at a #1 RB level this week.
Projections:
Carson Palmer: 275 pass/3 TD/1 INT
Chad Johnson: 65 rec/1 TD
TJ Houshmandzadeh: 80 rec
Chris Henry: 80 rec/1 TD
Rudi Johnson: 65 rush/1 TD
Kenny Watson: 25 rush/20 rec
Vinny Testaverde/Steve Smith/Drew Carter/Jeff
King
DeShaun Foster (vs. GB)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Packers this season:
N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Packers this season:
N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 12.4/10.1/9.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 17.1
 Passing
Game Thoughts: So much of football – fantasy and
reality – is just about surviving. Hoping your team stays
healthy enough to compete each week. This game pits one team that
hasn’t stayed healthy at some key spots against one that
has. As I will continue to say, Testaverde at least makes Smith
startable, otherwise all bets are off. And for a struggling offense
like Carolina’s, the sight of the Packers’ defense
is not a pleasing one. Only one QB (Philip Rivers) crossed the
20-point threshold against them. For the Panthers, only twice
since Jake Delhomme went down as a Carolina QB hit double-digit
fantasy points. As such, all these factors make Smith almost worth
benching. Sidney Rice was the last WR to score more than 10 points
against Green Bay – back in Week 4. And while the Packers
have been hurt by the TE this season, it only makes sense to start
King if he’s one of the 12 best TEs in the league –
now that the bye weeks are over – and he is not that.
Running Game Thoughts: Teams don’t have much reason to
fear the pass given that none of the QBs can stay healthy long
enough to build a rapport with Smith. Or in Carr’s case,
he hasn’t seen all the film on Smith that says his QB can
just throw it up to him and he will get it. This doesn’t
bode well for the Panthers’ run game vs. one of the better
defenses vs. RBs. Foster is still startable in most leagues because
he will get the bulk of the carries, but this offense is just
not very good right now.
Projections:
Vinny Testaverde: 180 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Steve Smith: 50 rec
Drew Carter: 40 rec
Jeff King: 40 rec/1 TD
DeShaun Foster: 60 rush/15 rec
Brett Favre/Donald Driver/Greg Jennings/James
Jones/Donald Lee
Ryan Grant (vs. CAR)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Panthers this season:
N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Panthers this season:
Texans
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 21.2
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 15.2/11.7/6.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 22.5
Passing Game Thoughts: The continued emergence of Grant only
makes things better for Favre’s crew. With the exception
of two duds, Favre has been rock-solid and a borderline elite
fantasy producer all season long. Things get a bit rougher for
him down the stretch, but not so much that his owners should deal
him off or bench him anytime soon. And while he did have a bit
of luck on his side against the Vikings last week, Green Bay is
balancing their offense more and more by the week. This doesn’t
bode well for the Panthers, who couldn’t stop the pass early
in the season and now can’t stop the run. The numbers suggest
that the best deep threat fares pretty well, so don’t be
surprised to see both Jennings and Koren Robinson pile up the
fantasy points. And its not as if Driver has been forgotten –
he hasn’t scored since Week 3 – it’s more that
Favre isn’t required to throw to him despite being double-teamed
anymore, which has allowed Jennings, Jones and Lee all to prosper.
Driver has been targeted at least six times in all but one game,
but his numbers have taken a hit as a result of his teammates
being able to carry the team. Lee hasn’t exactly been a
no-brainer start at TE all season, but he has scored at least
seven points in three of the last four games, making him a pretty
fair starter at the position.
Running Game Thoughts: Hello, Ryan Grant. After making one of
the toughest run defenses look rather ordinary in Week 10, he
will get his shot at a middle-of-the-pack unit this time around.
Grant has done a fine job seeing the hole and running with power
so far. While he will never blow anyone away with his speed, it
is highly likely that the Packers have found their RB for the
next couple years. (I won’t go so far to say he is Dorsey
Levens as some of the media has done lately, but Green Bay is
one of those teams that will be more than happy to let its RB
and his offensive line do the heavy lifting if they are in synch.)
Five straight teams have put at least one RB over the 11.6-fantasy
point mark against Carolina, so the potential is there for another
fantasy-starter quality performance. With the Panthers’
subpar offense, he should certainly have his opportunities.
Projections:
Brett Favre: 280 pass/3 TD/1 INT
Donald Driver: 70 rec/1 TD
Greg Jennings: 90 rec/1 TD
James Jones: 50 rec
Donald Lee: 30 rec/1 TD
Ryan Grant: 90 rush/1 TD/20 rec
Derek Anderson/Braylon Edwards/Joe Jurevicius/Kellen
Winslow
Jamal Lewis (vs. BAL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Ravens this season:
Browns
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Ravens this season:
Browns
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 18.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 22.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 9.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 15.7
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 23.8/32.7/3.9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 11
 Passing
Game Thoughts: The Ravens were careless with the ball and
the Steelers attacked. Baltimore turned the ball over and the
Bengals settled for field goals. If the Ravens continue their
bad habits against Cleveland, the Browns will attack and Anderson
could have a field day, assuming CBs Samari Rolle and Chris McAlister
are still out. Quite simply, Cleveland has the perfect storm for
fantasy production in the passing game: talented playmakers at
two spots with a strong-armed QB getting them the ball, a decent
but unspectacular running game and a defense that keeps both teams
in the game. That said, Baltimore is playing some of the worst
offensive football in some time and even the Browns should be
able to take advantage of that. If the aforementioned Ravens’
CBs are healthy, this game should take on the personality of their
first meeting where Anderson went 10-for-18 for 204 yards with
two TDs. That should be the worst he does. For the WRs, if McAlister
is still out for this contest, it means Edwards should thrive
– he likely will do well regardless. Jurevicius gets a fair
number of looks each week, but Anderson looks to Edwards and Winslow
in the red zone. With Winslow’s consistency this season,
he could very well take over Antonio Gates’ place as the
top TE for next season’s drafts. He has been the most consistent
TE this season – eight points or more in every game –
and has been targeted a ridiculous 31 times in just the last two
games. (He had 96 yards vs. the Ravens in the first meeting.)
Running Game Thoughts: As many would expect, with the Ravens’
CBs out, teams have opted to attack Baltimore with the pass. And
while Lewis did a fare job against his former employer in the
first meeting, I highly doubt the Browns will stick to the run
all that long – especially early on – if Edwards is
repeatedly drawing Corey Ivy or Derrick Martin in coverage. Lewis
will once again get the bulk of the carries, but there are many
better options this week at RB.
Projections:
Derek Anderson: 265 pass/3 TD/1 INT
Braylon Edwards: 100 rec/2 TD
Joe Jurevicius: 40 rec
Kellen Winslow: 75 rec/1 TD
Jamal Lewis: 55 rush/20 rec
Kyle Boller/Mark Clayton/Derrick Mason/Todd
Heap
Willis McGahee (vs. CLE)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Browns this season:
Ravens
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Browns this season:
Ravens
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 16.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 13.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 13.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 16
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 23.8/31.2/5.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 15.1
Passing Game Thoughts: This group is a great example of the unpredictability
of the NFL. At the start of the season, Clayton was a hot name
to draft in the mid-rounds and Mason was left for the waiver wire.
Mason quickly re-establishes his name as a startable quantity
in fantasy league, but falls off to the point where people are
suggesting that Boller is an improvement (??) over Steve McNair,
who appeared to suddenly lose the ability to run an NFL offense.
Even with Boller, this group may not be playable, but it should
be better. I think Clayton proved last week he may be healthy
enough now to be ready to make another second-half run as a possible
low-end #3 WR. If you have been riding Mason for a while, give
him one last chance with Boller vs. the Browns before you close
the book on him. Because if there is one thing we have seen this
season, it is that an offense can look pretty healthy against
the Browns. However, despite this matchup being very favorable,
I would not really want to play any member of this passing game
outside of a fairly healthy Heap.
Running Game Thoughts: The plan of attack should be simple. Feed
McGahee the ball this week until he cannot go any longer. If/when
that happens, feed it to Musa Smith and Mike Anderson. About the
only time this offense looks pro-quality are on running plays.
And there is no doubt that McGahee’s numbers are going to
take a hit soon if the passing game can’t get untracked.
To this point, McGahee has been about as consistent as a fantasy
owner could want a #2 RB to be, even if his numbers haven’t
been eye-popping. The good news: one of his two 100-yard rushing
games came in Week 4 at Cleveland and better yet, he has scored
in each of his last four games. However, his use may come down
to how healthy CBs Samari Rolle and Chris McAlister are. If they
both play, Cleveland may not score all that much early on, giving
McGahee a shot at 20 carries. Regardless, because of his involvement
in the offense and the matchup, he’s probably a top 10 RB
play this week.
Projections:
Kyle Boller: 220 pass/2 TD/1 INT/20 rush
Mark Clayton: 85 rec/1 TD
Derrick Mason: 55 rec
Todd Heap: 40 rec/1 TD
Willis McGahee: 100 rush/1 TD/20 rec
Brodie Croyle/Dwayne Bowe/Eddie Kennison/Tony
Gonzalez
Priest Holmes (vs. IND)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Colts this season:
N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Colts this season:
N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 10.6/14.8/3.6
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 16.7
 Passing
Game Thoughts: Croyle’s relief effort last week vs.
Denver doubled just about every major career total he had prior
to the game. I also felt a bit indifferent towards Bowe’s
potential for the rest of the season until I found out that seven
of Bowe’s 13 targets came after Croyle entered the game.
The bad news is that only 34 of Bowe’s 107 yards came with
Croyle. Now, there are two views to take: 1) a week of practice
working together can only help, or 2) Bowe is going to be tough
to count on for the rest of the year with an inexperienced QB
throwing the ball. This week, though, it shouldn’t matter
all that much. Indy’s pass defense does a great job of negating
all but the most elite of WRs and Bowe isn’t at that level
yet (and neither is this passing game). The Colts defense is good
enough right now – even with a number of injuries –
that I would bench Bowe if I could. This should mean a lot of
work for Gonzalez on the short and intermediate routes. However,
the athleticism of Indy’s defense should keep Gonzo under
wraps as well, but he also figures to be the Chiefs’ best
chance at scoring on offense this week. (The Colts will miss DE
Dwight Freeney but I feel his absence – for this game anyway
– will be negated by KC’s unwillingness to open things
up and with a young QB making his first start.)
Running Game Thoughts: So it has come to this for the Chiefs…with
Larry Johnson out, not even Holmes is worth a start? Or the guy
they should be playing if they want to work in the kids…Kolby
Smith? Denver’s run defense has posted a couple noteworthy
games, but I’m going to attribute Week 10’s performance
to a lack of explosion and lack of talent on the Chiefs’
side until I see evidence to the contrary. Considering KC has
nowhere near the offensive talent San Diego or New England does
(and seeing how both of those teams needed help to score against
the Colts defense), I don’t like Holmes, Smith or the 2005
version of LJ in this contest. In short, bench your Chiefs if
you can except for Gonzalez.
Projections:
Brodie Croyle: 190 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Dwayne Bowe: 50 rec
Eddie Kennison:
Tony Gonzalez: 55 rec/1 TD
Larry Johnson: 100 rush/1 TD/30 rec/1 TD
Peyton Manning/Marvin Harrison/Reggie
Wayne/Dallas Clark
Joseph Addai/Kenton Keith (vs. KC)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Chiefs this season:
Packers
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Chiefs this season:
N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 22.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 35.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 8.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 18.1/23.8/10
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 15.3
Passing Game Thoughts: I think many fantasy owners have been
waiting for years to see how Manning would do if one (or more)
of his elite options had to sit on the sidelines for an extended
amount of time. Let me be one of the first to say that despite
a six-INT game, the Colts are impressing the heck out of me. (And
for those folks suggesting that Tom Brady is showing now just
how superior of a QB he is, let me remind you how frustrated Brady
was early on last year.) As much as coaches would like you to
believe that if one player gets hurt and another player should
step in and step up without much drop-off, well, there are reasons
why Aaron Moorehead and Craphonso Thorpe are core special team
players and not on their way to the Hall of Fame. Ben Utecht is
not seamlessly going to step in for Clark and keep this offense
producing at a 30 ppg level. If you have been winning with Manning
up to this point, I would enjoy the ride because after Harrison
and Clark return, I would expect some team will ultimately feel
Indy’s wrath. That said, Addai had a wonderful game the
last time these teams met (in the playoffs) with similar personnel
on both sides and Harrison was being held in check, so I would
expect a heavy reliance on the run in this contest as well. Also,
given that KC will be starting a new QB, I expect a fair amount
of short fields for the Colts, meaning they won’t need as
many big plays as usual from their passing game. I don’t
need to tell you to start Wayne and if Clark makes it back this
week. If Clark does return, upgrade Manning and Clark both, as
good TEs have given KC fits yardage-wise for most of the season.
Running Game Thoughts: As stated above, Indy should lean on Addai
heavily and Keith to a certain extent. Selvin Young had his way
with the Chiefs behind a weaker-than-usual Broncos line, something
that bodes well for the Colts running game that was missing two
offensive tackles and had a third one injured in Week 10. (Don’t
lose sight on just how important those injuries have been in their
two defeats.) As stated above, I expect very little scoring from
the Chiefs, meaning Indy should be able to run as long as they
feel is necessary. While I don’t see Addai having a huge
game, he will continue to live up to the expectations owners have
of their #1 RB. KC has kept some decent RBs to respectable fantasy
point totals, but some of the elite ones have hit them a bit harder
(all but one lead RB has scored more than eight fantasy points
and four have scored more than 17) – just what you would
expect from an average defense. In those games, the area they
suffered in the most was defending the RB against the pass, something
that should work very much in Indy’s favor with or without
Harrison and Clark.
Projections:
Peyton Manning: 250 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Reggie Wayne: 80 rec/1 TD
Craphonso Thorpe: 40 rec
Dallas Clark: 80 rec/1 TD
Joseph Addai: 90 rush/1 TD/30 rec
Kenton Keith: 45 rush/10 rec
John Beck/Marty Booker/Derek Hagan
Jesse Chatman (vs. PHI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Eagles this season:
N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Eagles this season:
N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 23.2/23
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 18.5
Passing Game Thoughts: Cleo Lemon had become an absolute thorn
in the side of any fantasy owners who would like to plug Chatman
into their lineup every week without much thought. On most teams,
his four rushing TDs would have all gone to the RB (and given
that Chatman has been in double digits every week without scoring
since becoming a starter), he may already be the last-season fantasy
stud that I predicted a couple of weeks ago. That said, common
sense dictates that it isn’t a great idea to trust a rookie
QB making his first start. If you are willing to take that risk,
bigger WRs have torn Philadelphia’s defensive backs up all
season long, so it would be no surprise if the 10 targets that
Booker saw last week turn into more than two catches for 16 yards,
like it did last week vs. Buffalo. With the bye weeks over, you
should not need to turn to this passing game, especially with
Beck running the offense. If I had to play a Dolphin this week
in the passing game, it would be Booker as a very low-end #3.
Running Game Thoughts: The one thing Miami will not have to address
much in the offseason is the running game. Chatman’s value
hasn’t gone through the roof yet because Lemon insisted
on stealing his scores, but with Beck taking over, it may not
be long before HC Cam Cameron’s pet project is ready to
give his owners a Ronnie Brown impression. OK, check that, at
least until Ricky Williams can play. For teams that have nothing
to fear but the run, it’s rather amazing the Dolphins have
had at least one RB go over 10 fantasy points in seven straight
games. In fact, if you are fortunate enough to have some quality
depth at some other positions, see what it will take for you to
get Chatman. His fantasy playoff schedule is among the toughest
out there, but he has three fairly soft matchups over the next
four weeks that may help you get to the playoffs. Lately, teams
that have been able to stick to the run have had a great deal
of success against Philly (44.7 points allowed to opposing RBs
vs. Dallas and Washington). Chatman, assuming he doesn’t
get pulled at the goal line, should be one of the best plays of
the week at RB.
Projections:
John Beck: 200 pass/1 TD/1 INT/10 rush
Marty Booker: 60 rec
Derek Hagan: 50 rec
Jesse Chatman: 100 rush/1 TD/40 rec
Donovan McNabb/Kevin Curtis/Reggie Brown/LJ
Smith
Brian Westbrook (vs. MIA)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Dolphins this season:
Redskins
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Dolphins this season:
N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 7.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 19
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 6.6/6/2.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 15.5
 Passing
Game Thoughts: McNabb & Co. got healthy just a week
too late. It is amazing though how McNabb could throw four TDs
and not a one of them went to Curtis. Either way, we saw McNabb
comfortable leaving the pocket for the first time this year and
he showed a little burst doing it. It may be too late for his
owners, but whether this is his last season in Philly or not,
he’s got a few more good years left. Before a rain-soaked,
sloppy-field game in London and ho-hum performance by Buffalo
in Week 10, Miami had allowed 85.3 fantasy points to Derek Anderson
and Tom Brady. Chances are McNabb could hit that average if the
play-calling allows him to do so in this contest – it should
be a nice day for his owners. Curtis again figures to be the best
play as any team that has had a deep threat has routinely burned
Miami. Brown has been strong in four of his last five games and
is settling in as a good #3 fantasy WR. Smith scored for the first
time this year against Washington. If you have the room, stash
him. Otherwise, I would say let one more week play out before
you invest a waiver wire pickup or starting spot for him. He looks
healthy and McNabb looks to him, but we really need to see more.
That said, the two TEs that have been targeted six times against
Miami this season (Owen Daniels, Kellen Winslow) each had over
90 yards receiving.
Running Game Thoughts: Westbrook has scored 21.2 or more points
in three straight games. Miami has one of the worst defenses vs.
the run and vs. opposing RBs. He’s not likely to trump last
week’s last week’s 183 total yard, 3-TD performance,
but if there ever was a defense he could do it against, the Dolphins
might be the one.
Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 300 pass/3 TD/0 INT
Kevin Curtis: 110 rec/1 TD
Reggie Brown: 85 rec/1 TD
LJ Smith: 35 rec
Brian Westbrook: 100 rush/1 TD/50 rec/1 TD
Drew Brees/Marques Colston/Devery Henderson/David
Patten/Eric Johnson
Reggie Bush (vs. HOU)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Texans this season:
N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Texans this season:
N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.6/12.5/10.9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 17
 Passing
Game Thoughts: The official loss of CB Dunta Robinson for
the season only means that teams are going to find the going easier
via the pass than they already were. Robinson was the one Texans
CB that could keep an opposing WR in check somewhat. Brees is
coming off his first subpar performance in a little while, but
he has thrown for at least two scores in five straight games.
Houston’s secondary situation is worse than the Rams and
with Bush coming off a mild concussion; it may mean even more
passing for the Saints. The Texans’ have are in the bottom
half of the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to WRs,
but they haven’t faced any top-level WRs since Week 3, so
play Colston with a ton of confidence. And at the rate (and with
the efficiency) the Saints pass at, Patten also makes a solid
#3 WR play. Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark each hit Houston up
pretty good from the TE position, but outside of that, the Texans
have been pretty solid against opposing TEs, meaning I would look
to someone else besides Johnson this week.
Running Game Thoughts: If Bush is clear-headed (pun somewhat
intended) this week, this matchup projects awfully well for him.
He has went over 100 total yards and/or scored a TD in each of
his last seven games. He has been a double-digit scorer every
week since Deuce McAllister went down and gets to face a defense
that has surrendered at least 17.9 fantasy points to an opposing
RB in five of its less seven games. So Bush is a top 10 RB play
for sure this week and if he can’t go, Aaron Stecker would
be a fine play.
Projections:
Drew Brees: 285 pass/3 TD/1 INT
Marques Colston: 95 rec/1 TD
Devery Henderson: 35 rec/1 TD
David Patten: 75 rec/1 TD
Eric Johnson: 25 rec
Reggie Bush: 80 rush/1 TD/50 rec
Matt Schaub/Andre Johnson/Kevin Walter/Owen
Daniels
Ron Dayne (vs. NO)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Saints this season:
N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Saints this season:
Bucs
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 21.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 20/26.5/9.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 14.9
Passing Game Thoughts: I’m not sure there has been a more
anticipated return in fantasy football this year than the one
AJ will make this week. (I can trace the collapse of two of my
fantasy teams to his demise.) Johnson has already proven he is
in the elite class of WRs and the relative rust he may have should
be negated by the fact he will get to face defenders who have
played half a season and, in this game, he gets to play against
one of the worst pass defenses in the league. The Texans will
also be getting Schaub back as well, meaning a good part of their
Week 1 offense will get to take the field.
Running Game Thoughts: People are quick to rejoice when one of
their stars returns from injury, but understand the elite WRs
change how teams must defend the running game as well. And that’s
a good thing for Dayne with Ahman Green out and perhaps even Joe
Echemandu. The Saints allowed 16 points to Steven Jackson, the
first double-digit performance against the Saints by a RB since
LenDale White in Week 3. New Orleans is doing a good job keeping
opponents in check yardage-wise (3.83 ypc), however, and have
allowed just five RB scores all season. So any value the Texans
RBs figure to have this week will come either in the passing game
or as a result of the passing game coming up just short of the
goal line. With Green sidelined, Dayne is a fair #2 RB play this
week.
Projections:
Matt Schaub: 230 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Andre Johnson: 85 rec/2 TD
Kevin Walter: 55 rec
Owen Daniels: 50 rec
Ron Dayne: 70 rush/1 TD/10 rec
Daunte Culpepper/Jerry Porter/Ronald Curry
Justin Fargas (vs. MIN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Vikings this season:
Falcons
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Vikings this season:
Packers
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 4.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 8.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 5.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 25.5
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 19.2/26.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 20.2
 Passing
Game Thoughts: With CB Antoine Winfield expected back this
week, what little advantage the Raiders may have had in the passing
game is all but gone. While Curry should probably not be dropped,
he shouldn’t be in many fantasy starting lineups either.
Since their Week 5 bye, neither Culpepper nor Josh McCown have
eclipsed 13.5 fantasy points, making just about every player here
useless from a fantasy perspective. And while the Vikes have been
torched recently in the passing game, they have been without Winfield
the past two games and have faced a couple of very capable offenses
in that time. Oakland is not that, so the best play from the Raiders
is their defense.
Running Game Thoughts: Despite Green Bay’s success last
week, this is a terrible matchup for the Raiders. The Bears were
pretty successful at keeping Fargas to a respectable yardage total
and with all the Bears’ injuries, the Vikings run defense
is light years ahead of Chicago’s. The trend suggests that
Minnesota is softening vs. the run, but also consider that three
of the four RBs the Vikings have faced over the last four weeks
are going to be among the top 25 selections in next year’s
drafts. Basically, it will take a big game by Fargas to convince
me that the Minnesota run defense is still not one of the best.
Projections:
Daunte Culpepper: 175 pass/1 TD/1 INT/20 rush
Jerry Porter: 40 rec
Ronald Curry: 60 rec
Justin Fargas: 60 rush/30 rec
Tavaris Jackson/Troy Williamson/Bobby
Wade/Visanthe Shiancoe
Chester Taylor (vs. OAK)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Raiders this season:
Titans
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Raiders this season:
Chiefs
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 2.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 2.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 1.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 19.6
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 10.5/13.3/2.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 25.2
Passing Game Thoughts: Oakland hasn’t allowed more than
13.1 fantasy points to an opposing QB in six straight games. Meanwhile,
a Vikings QB haven’t scored more than 14.3 fantasy points
in a single game all season. Jackson himself hasn’t even
scored 12 fantasy points in a single game yet. As regular readers
of this column know already, when Jackson is in, only Wade is
even remotely playable. That’s all you really need to know
about this offense.
Running Game Thoughts: There should be very little mystery about
what Minnesota should do in this game. There is absolutely no
reason why the Vikings should pass more than 20 times in this
contest. One look at the preceding paragraph should be all you
need to know about the passing matchup. On the other hand, the
Raiders have been absolutely pounded on the ground, giving up
a season-high 15.7 points last week to Cedric Benson, the last
of six straight RBs to score at least 14.1 fantasy points against
this defense. In fact, Jamal Lewis’ 7.8-point effort in
Week 3 is the only single-digit performance against the Raiders
from a starting RB. So, in what figures to be a very low-scoring
game, Taylor could very well account for the game’s only
score.
Projections:
Tavaris Jackson: 150 pass/0 TD/1 INT/25 rush
Troy Williamson: 45 rec
Bobby Wade: 55 rec
Visanthe Shiancoe: 10 rec
Chester Taylor: 100 rush/1 TD/25 rec
Ben Roethlisberger/Hines Ward/Santonio
Holmes/Heath Miller
Willie Parker (vs. NYJ)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Jets this season:
Giants
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Jets this season:
Redskins
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 19.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 19.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 9.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 34.6
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 10.4/15.7/4.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 23.8
 Passing
Game Thoughts: Big Ben has been producing at an elite level
since the Steelers’ bye week, averaging over 30 fantasy
points per game. Meanwhile, the Jets have been so porous vs. the
run that opponents haven’t felt the need to test this defense
all that much, with Kyle Boller’s 20.1-point performance
in Week 2 the last 20-point performance the Jets have allowed
to a QB. However, this edition of the Steelers wants to get the
ball down the field and is very likely to connect on a few deep
shots. Translation: Roethlisberger is just a shade below Tom Brady
as the best play of the week at QB. Deep threats have habitually
torched the Jets this season, but in all honesty, no one New York
lines up across the Pittsburgh WRs is a good matchup. The Jets
have allowed four TE scores this season and can get beat yardage-wise
there as well, making Miller another solid play.
Running Game Thoughts: No game in the NFL is a lay-up and it
is that kind of thinking that leads to upsets happening every
week like they inevitably do in football. However, Parker’s
owners have to ecstatic about their runner’s matchup this
week. While it seems like FWP hasn’t really gotten untracked
yet, he’s been at the very least consistently providing
his owners low #1 RB totals most of the time. When Parker meets
the Jets this weekend though, he will get his shots at the team
that allows the most fantasy points to the RB position. New York
has permitted five 100-yard rushers this season and has allowed
at least 100 yards rushing in all but one game. This game should
not really be all that competitive in the second half, meaning
Najeh Davenport figures to get in on the action. In fact, it would
not be a surprise to see him outscore Parker as a result.
Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 265 rush/4 TD/1 INT
Hines Ward: 90 rec/1 TD
Santonio Holmes: 80 rec/1 TD
Heath Miller: 40 rec/1 TD
Willie Parker: 125 rush/1 TD/15 rec
Najeh Davenport: 50 rush/1 TD
Kellen Clemens/Laveranues Coles/Jerricho
Cotchery
Thomas Jones (vs. PIT)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season:
Cardinals
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season:
Ravens
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 13.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 24.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 11.6
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 12.4/12.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 10.9
Passing Game Thoughts: While I wasn’t a big fan of the
move, I applaud the Jets for going to Clemens now if they know
Pennington will not be back next year (do you think Baltimore
may be interested??). Clemens – once he gets settled in
– should be able to open up the offense a bit more and make
the intermediate throws into the small holes that Pennington has
struggled with most of his career. Obviously, there is no reason
to endorse a QB making his third career start vs. the Steelers,
but as for the WRs, the ones that have done well this season against
Pittsburgh have been the bigger, more physical ones, meaning if
you need to play someone from this group, the smart money is on
Cotchery. (More specifically, don’t be surprised if most
of the Jets big pass plays come on the left side of the field.
The receivers that typically line up there – the split end
– have been much more successful vs. Pittsburgh this season
than have the flankers.)
Running Game Thoughts: Remember all the times I’ve suggested
that owners sell high on Jones before the bye week? This is the
start of why I stated that. (After the Steelers, it’s Dallas.
During playoff time, New England and Tennessee await.) Pittsburgh
is the toughest matchup for opposing rushers this season, so it
would make sense that TJ’s scoreless streak doesn’t
figure to end here. Suffice it to say that the Steelers have permitted
just two RBs all season to hit the double-digit fantasy point
mark, so in this matchup of the worst fantasy ground game vs.
the best fantasy run defense, my advice would be to keep Jones
as far out of your starting lineup as possible.
Projections:
Kellen Clemens: 215 pass/1 TD/2 INT
Laveranues Coles: 65 rec
Jerricho Cotchery: 80 rec/1 TD
Thomas Jones: 55 rush/20 rec
Philip Rivers/Vincent Jackson/Chris Chambers/Antonio
Gates
LaDainian Tomlinson (vs. JAX)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Jags this season:
N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Jags this season:
Colts
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 23.9
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 22.4/29.9/6.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 16.3
 Passing
Game Thoughts: It is interesting to note that six of the
nine TD passes Jacksonville has surrendered have come in the last
four games. And while the Jags have had their struggles this season
in stopping the run, it is still not a defense that one should
expect a RB to go off against either. Look for LT to be more involved
in the passing game as well as a renewed emphasis on getting the
ball to Gates. As for Rivers, his 32-for-66 stretch over the last
two games has to be the worst stretch of his career. After throwing
just nine picks all of last season, he has already tossed 10 INTs
in just nine games this time around. It is clear that he is either
not 100% - whether that be because he is not comfortable with
HC Norv Turner’s play-calling, is slightly injured or worse,
just not making the same reads he has throughout his college and
pro career. With his struggles, it is hard to advise playing either
Chambers or Jackson as well although bigger WRs have fared recently
vs. Jacksonville. As for Gates, of course he is in his owners’
lineups, with the good news being that Dallas Clark and Tony Gonzalez
– the two elite TEs the Jags have faced – have each
scored 10 or more points against this defense this season.
Running Game Thoughts: I continue to find the number of people
who call Tomlinson a “bust” this season laughable.
Is he off last year’s pace? Certainly. But his ypc is about
the same as 2005 and he is on pace to near his TD and yardage
totals from that season as well. The Jags are allowing 16.2 points
to the RB on average this season and even with all the struggles
the Chargers are having on offense, LT should be find himself
in the end zone at least once. So, until he signs some signs of
slowing down, LT remains the best bet to blow up each week, regardless
of opponent.
Projections:
Philip Rivers: 215 pass/1 TD/0 INT
Vincent Jackson: 40 rec
Chris Chambers: 50 rec
Antonio Gates: 80 rec/1 TD
LaDainian Tomlinson: 80 rush/1 TD/40 rec
David Garrard/Dennis Northcutt/Reggie
Williams
Fred Taylor/Maurice Jones-Drew (vs. SD)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Chargers this season:
N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Chargers this season:
N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 12/20
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 29.8
Passing Game Thoughts: Once again, not that Quinn Gray did a
poor job, but Jacksonville will be happy to get Garrard back in
the lineup. They were able to win two of three games Gray started,
but attempted a total of just 39 passes in those contests (completing
20). With Garrard, they get a QB back who is completing 66% of
his passes on the season and has yet to throw an INT. That kind
of efficiency means the ground game should only be more effective
now than it was before he was injured. It will be interesting
to see if the Jags continue to be as run-heavy as they were with
Gray on turn back to trying to be a balanced offense like they
were in the first five games. What this all means is that Northcutt
once again becomes a decent #3 fantasy WR as he has established
a connection with Garrard. However, he is the only member of the
passing game – outside of a bench spot for Garrard –
that I would allow on my fantasy team. As for Garrard’s
prospects this week, Peyton Manning’s 13.1 performance against
the Chargers was the best total since Week 4. If at all possible,
steer clear of the Jags’ passing game this week.
Running Game Thoughts: While it is nowhere the monster it was
last year, it appears the Jags’ running game is starting
to make another late-season push. In avenging their Week 1 loss
to Tennessee last week, Jacksonville took an Albert Haynesworth-less
defense that had been among the toughest in the league to run
against and made it look ordinary, piling up 147 yards and three
TDs rushing (just the RBs) and adding another 30 yards receiving
and a fourth score in the passing game. And in typical Jags’
second-half fashion, three RBs posted double-digit fantasy point
totals. They face a run defense in the Chargers who did a much
better job against the run vs. the Colts than I would have anticipated.
That said, Indy was missing enough of their supporting cast (not
to mention down a couple linemen as well) that I will need to
see another performance like the one they posted in Week 10 this
week if I’m going to chalk up the Minnesota game as a mirage.
However, it should be mentioned that RBs have scored just three
TDs against this defense (with the exception of the Vikings game),
so MJD and Taylor are not the best of plays. And in all honesty,
if the Chargers want to avoid having to even deal with the run,
they only need KR Darren Sproles to have a repeat of his returning
success and get out to double-digit lead right away.
Projections:
David Garrard: 210 pass/1 TD/0 INT/25 rush
Dennis Northcutt: 60 rec
Reggie Williams: 30 rec/1 TD
Fred Taylor: 45 rush/20 rec
Maurice Jones-Drew: 70 rush/1 TD/35 rec
Jeff Garcia/Joey Galloway/Ike Hilliard
Earnest Graham/Michael Bennett/Michael Pittman (vs. ATL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Falcons this season:
Jags
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Falcons this season:
Titans
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 18.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 24.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 12.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 1.2/7.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 14.2
 Passing
Game Thoughts: A look at the recent numbers suggests that
the Falcons pass defense has been stifling. Bear in mind that
those games were against the Niners and Panthers, owners of two
of the worst offenses in football right now. While the Bucs aren’t
the very definition of explosive, they have a solid attack. Garcia
has been very steady all season long and the case could be made
that he is worth starting every week in 12-team leagues. He’s
accounted for at least one score in each game since Week 3 and
there isn’t much reason to believe Atlanta is going to stop
that streak, although the Falcons have yet to surrender more than
19.6 fantasy points to a QB this season. This game figures to
be another decent game for Galloway as only Indy and Detroit –
two predominant cover 2 teams – have bottled him up since
September. Hilliard is also worth a look as a mid-#3 fantasy WR
option but I don’t foresee a lights-out game for him based
on the reason provided above why Galloway is the better play of
the two.
Running Game Thoughts: Assuming Graham is going to be the featured
back – and with his recent performances, there is little
reason to doubt he will get 20 touches – this is a tailor-made
matchup for him. The Falcons run defense has been rather inconsistent
but respectable enough not to allow more than 15 fantasy points
to a RB since Week 3, although that is a bit misleading considering
the Giants ran at will against them on MNF a few weeks back and
saw three of their back score between 8-15 points that evening.
More recently, they kept Reggie Bush and DeShaun Foster in check
on the ground, but gave up more points than an average defense
should have against a Niners rushing attack missing Frank Gore.
All in all, I don’t expect much receiving yardage-wise with
Michael Pittman likely back in the picture, but Graham is the
back to own. With the rash of injuries and turnover at the position
this season, you could do much worse than plugging in Graham as
a #2 RB this week.
Projections:
Jeff Garcia: 220 pass/1 TD/0 INT/25 rush
Joey Galloway: 85 rec/1 TD
Ike Hilliard: 65 rec
Earnest Graham: 75 rush/1 TD/25 rec
Michael Bennett: 25 rush/20 rec
Michael Pittman: 25 rush/20 rec
Byron Leftwich/RoddyWhite/Michael Jenkins/Alge
Crumpler
Warrick Dunn/Jerious Norwood (vs. TB)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bucs this season:
N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bucs this season:
Panthers
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 19.2
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 6.4/13/0
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 15.7
Passing Game Thoughts: Last week brought in the Carolina Panthers,
which meant it was time for Harrington and Crumpler to get re-acquainted.
(You see, Crump has scored both TDs this season vs. the Panthers.)
With Leftwich once again the starter, it should mean that the
deep ball is once again an option, except that’s not likely
this week against a pretty fair cover 2 defense like the Bucs.
And to be honest, it’s hard to back an offense that has
posted just one respectable yardage total (fantasy-wise) since
Week 3 – 273 yards against the Saints – and has only
thrown for two scores in that same amount of time. Crumpler would
seem to be a natural target for Leftwich, who doesn’t mind
throwing to his TEs, but once again, it will be tough for this
average offense to establish any kind of consistency against Tampa
Bay. No QB has even scored 20 fantasy points against them and
only two WRs all season long have scored more than 10 points.
As a result, no one outside of maybe Crumpler is worth considering
this week.
Running Game Thoughts: Thank goodness Norwood is on his way back
because Dunn was starting to resemble a playable fantasy RB once
again. Fantasy owners should know this drill by now – Dunn
will get roughly 10-15 touches with Norwood a shade below that.
So if you have enjoyed the ride on the Dunn bangwagon the last
couple weeks, either deal him or bench him as his workload gets
cut by at least a third. Additionally, Dunn doesn’t exactly
have a great track record against his former team either. The
one glimmer of hope is that Tampa Bay has surrendered at least
10.2 points to one RB in every road game this season. However,
unless Norwood breaks off another long run, I don’t look
for that streak to continue here.
Projections:
Joey Harrington: 180 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Roddy White: 60 rec
Michael Jenkins: 40 rec
Alge Crumpler: 30 rec
Warrick Dunn: 55 rush/15 rec
Jerious Norwood: 40 rush/20 rec
Jason Campbell/Santana Moss/Antwaan Randle
El/Chris Cooley
Clinton Portis (vs. DAL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cowboys this season:
N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Cowboys this season:
Bills
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 12
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 11.2/13.4/12.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 19.7
 Passing
Game Thoughts: I know it is wishful thinking, but perhaps
Campbell’s 3-TD explosion last week will encourage the Redskins
to pass a bit more to take the load off of Portis. I’m all
for a RB getting his work, but few backs are built to endure 30-carry
games on a regular basis. Perhaps the biggest surprises of Week
10 was that Campbell threw a TD to a guy not named Mike Sellers
or Cooley, but to James Thrash and Keenan McCardell. All that
aside, the Cowboys pass defense has been solid fantasy-wise ever
since Week 2 in defending the QB, not yielding any more than one
QB score in any week outside of the Patriots’ game in Week
6. Likewise, the last time that Dallas surrendered more than 10
points to a WR – outside of the New England game –
was Week 2. Jeremy Shockey, who benefited greatly from his supporting
cast last week, was the first TE to crack double figures this
season against Dallas. Cooley won’t have the same luxury
as Shockey, and as such, is probably in line for a scoreless but
remains the only playable member of this passing game this week.
Running Game Thoughts: Dallas has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher,
but at the rate Portis is piling up carries lately, he may be
the first. Portis has 66 carries (and 70 total touches) in just
the last two weeks, numbers which makes just about any RB playable.
The only question in this game will be whether the Redskins defense
can keep the Cowboys close enough for Portis to do his thing.
Dallas has been solid versus the run all season long, but has
yielded more than 10 points in each of its last three games. With
another 25-30 touches in this contest, he is once again a solid
play, despite the tough matchup.
Projections:
Jason Campbell: 220 pass/0 TD/1 INT/20 rush
Santana Moss: 60 rec
Antwaan Randle El: 50 rec
Chris Cooley: 65 rec
Clinton Portis: 85 rush/1 TD/15 rec
Tony Romo/Terrell Owens/Patrick Crayton/Jason
Witten
Julius Jones/Marion Barber (vs. WAS)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Redskins this season:
Giants
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Redskins this season:
N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 9.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 18.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 7.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 35.3/21.6/7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 22.9
Passing Game Thoughts: A once-proud defense this season –
Washington – has been not be able to keep offenses from
having their way in the passing game lately. After allowing no
more than 14.8 points in a game to the QB position through Week
6, the Redskins have been torched in the passing game over the
last four weeks, surrendering two 35.7+ point games to Tom Brady
and Donovan McNabb (after holding him down to 11.1 in Week 2)
and permitting at least 17.3 points to each opposing QB over the
last month. Of course, it doesn’t help that CB Carlos Rogers
was lost for the season while their other CB, Shawn Springs, has
had to deal with his father’s life and death situation.
Now, we also know that S Sean Taylor is likely lost for at least
this game. Mix all that together with a defense that is not blitzing
as much as a (DC) Gregg Williams’ unit typically does and
it becomes nearly impossible for Washington to keep Romo in check.
After hitting a short lull fantasy-wise right before the bye,
Romo is back to his posting his stellar early-season numbers.
Since the bye, Owens has been targeted much more frequently than
Witten, if only because TO has inexplicably been wide open on
a couple of his long TD scores over the last two games. Owens
will more than likely get his numbers in this game, but I feel
Witten comes close – if not exceed – Owens’
output in this game, especially after the Redskins have struggled
to defend the TE lately (three TDs in the last four contests).
Also, Witten is a valued part of the offense and is the best TE
that Washington has faced.
Running Game Thoughts: While the pass defense is in shambles
due to circumstance/injury, only Brian Westbrook has posted a
great fantasy total against the Redskins. However, on the food
chain of fantasy RBs who owners want on their team after Westbrook,
Barber doesn’t fall very far. While the Giants did a fine
job last week in limiting his impact, Barber has been just about
as solid of a #2 fantasy RB as any owner could expect. As we saw
against Minnesota a few weeks back, Barber needs to be in fantasy
lineups regardless of the matchup. Jones, on the other hand, gets
just enough time on the field to torment Barber’s owners
and occasionally ruin a top-notch fantasy line from his teammate.
Nevertheless, at this point, Jones should be used only as a flex
player.
Projections:
Tony Romo: 280 pass/3 TD/0 INT/20 rush
Terrell Owens: 85 rec/1 TD
Patrick Crayton: 55 rec/1 TD
Jason Witten: 90 rec/1 TD
Julius Jones: 40 rush/10 rec
Marion Barber: 75 rush/1 TD/30 rec
Eli Manning/Plaxico Burress/Amani Toomer/Jeremy
Shockey
Brandon Jacobs/Reuben Droughns (vs. DET)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Lions this season:
N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Lions this season:
Vikings
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 21.1
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 17/18.3/11.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 11
 Passing
Game Thoughts: This game presents the perfect opportunity
for the G-Men to shed their second-half fade label they have adorned
since HC Tom Coughlin arrived. It sets up as a matchup that should
allow Manning and Burress to connect at will. As tough as it has
been for Burress’ owners lately after riding him through
the first half of the season, I believe he (and the passing game
as a whole) has been a victim of circumstance over the last four
weeks. First, it was a game against San Francisco in which it
made little sense to put the ball in the air followed by the terrible
field conditions in London vs. Miami. After the bye week, Burress
was targeted a couple times deep but Manning was not able to connect
with him against a pretty decent Dallas pass defense. In the perfect
conditions of the dome this weekend, with a defense that has routinely
given up the deep ball, look for Manning to put up a few numbers
and for Burress to get back into the scoring column. I would be
more than just a bit surprised if Manning comes up with less than
two TDs and Burress doesn’t near the 100-yard mark. Detroit
has allowed the seventh-most points to WRs this season (22.1/game).
Toomer has been targeted more and more as of late and would make
a great #3 WR play this weekend, but he is still a clear #3 behind
Burress and Shockey, who came up with an incredible 12 catches
as the Cowboys made a concerted effort to keep the Giants’
receivers in front of them all game long. Speaking of the TE,
Shockey makes for a pretty decent start as well as the Lions have
surrendered three TE scores in the last three games. This should
be a fairly high-scoring battle, so owners should make sure to
get their key players from each side in their lineups.
Running Game Thoughts: Over their last three games, Detroit has
contained three powerful runners. However, in this case, I cannot
ignore their earlier track record and suggest they have improved.
Jacobs has been the model of consistency since his return yardage-wise,
with his only hang-up being he hasn’t visited the end zone
more often, regularly yielding to Droughns down by the goal line.
That said, Jacobs is a top-of-the-line start this week, facing
the team that allows the third-most point to the RB position (23.1/game).
It’s always hard to tell if Jacobs will get pulled at the
goal line (or have a TD run called back, as happened last week),
but as far as the matchup goes, it doesn’t get much better
than this.
Projections:
Eli Manning: 235 pass/2 TD/2 INT
Plaxico Burress: 80 rec/1 TD
Amani Toomer: 55 rec
Jeremy Shockey: 60 rec/1 TD
Brandon Jacobs: 115 rush/1 TD/25 rec
Reuben Droughns: 30 rush/1 TD
Jon Kitna/Roy Williams/Calvin Johnson/Mike
Furrey/Shaun McDonald
Kevin Jones (vs. NYG)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Giants this season:
Packers
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Giants this season:
Packers
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 27.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 20.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 26.8
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 21.8/25.6
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 10
Passing Game Thoughts: Notice how quickly the talk went from
Johnson for Rookie of the Year to Adrian Peterson? Some of that
can’t be helped due his back injury, but a closer look at
the numbers reveals that while he may start, he is option #2a
or 2b along with McDonald, who has been targeted seven times or
more in a game five times as opposed to Johnson, who has been
targeted that many times just twice. With the plethora of receiving
options he has, Kitna should be ready to sling the ball around
to his talented WRs in this game. However, it would seem to me
that when the offense that has surrendered the most sacks meets
the defense that has collected the most, it would be wise to throw
quick and short. Now, only Tony Romo and Brett Favre have really
excelled against New York’s pass defense, so keep your expectations
modest although I would expect a great deal of passing from the
Lions this week. Of the WRs that have faced the Giants, the majority
of them that have done well have been the bigger, physical type,
suggesting Williams should be in line for a nice day. While it
is hard to bench Johnson, I would like to see an outing representative
of his abilities before starting him with confidence again. McDonald,
as I already mentioned, would be a solid start at the #3 WR slot
while Furrey should only really be used out of desperation.
Running Game Thoughts: Jones may be having issues with his foot,
but even in the games where he isn’t doing much on the ground,
he is still scoring more often than not. Speaking of KJ, picking
up TJ Duckett may be a good move for his owners as it is highly
doubtful that Jones will be able to turn around and play next
Thursday after playing four days before – as the swelling
in his foot does not usually subside until then. As for this game
though, the Giants have surrendered just one 100-yard rusher (Correll
Buckhalter) but no RB has carried the ball 20 times against New
York yet. Don’t look for that to change, but even though
the Giants have permitted just five RB scores all season long
and none since Week 6, Detroit will move the ball well enough
to put Jones in position to put up a solid game for a #2 RB against
a defense that has surrendered more than 10 points to at least
one RB in all but two games.
Projections:
Jon Kitna: 260 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Roy Williams: 70 rec/1 TD
Calvin Johnson: 55 rec
Mike Furrey: 40 rec
Shaun McDonald: 65 rec/1 TD
Kevin Jones: 60 rush/1 TD/25 rec
Marc Bulger/Torry Holt/Isaac Bruce/Drew
Bennett/Randy McMichael
Steven Jackson (vs. SF)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Niners this season:
Rams
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Niners this season:
Rams
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 18.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 28.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 4.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 12.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 21.7/28.4/5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 19.4
 Passing
Game Thoughts: I was as big of a Bulger (and Rams offense)
supporter as there was entering the season. So forgive me as I
plead with you not to listen to the assertion that St. Louis is
finding their stride on offense. What they found in the last two
games were two of the worst secondaries in the league. While it
is quite feasible that Bulger has a repeat of his Week 2 performance
against the Niners (368 yards, 1 TD) , it’s not a great
idea to think that he will be able to recapture the form that
made him an upper-tier QB last season – he is a matchup
QB only for the rest of the season. This is probably one of the
two times for the rest of the year that you should consider starting
him – Week 14 vs. the Bengals being the other – as
San Francisco appears lost guarding the pass in its last four
games. Holt hasn’t posted great yardage totals of late against
the Niners, but he is always the most likely candidate in the
Rams passing game to score. The split end is enjoying the most
success by far against the Niners, so assuming Bruce (if he can
play) or Bennett (if Bruce can’t go) get the majority of
snaps against CB Walt Harris, whichever one sees the most time
should post a nice yardage line – if not score. McMichael
has crept into fantasy relevancy lately, but he hasn’t been
anything close yet to his Dolphin days – in large part due
to the injuries on the line that have kept him in to block a lot
more often – so stay away from him if at all possible.
Running Game Thoughts: If San Fran is doing anything halfway
well as of late, it is defending the run. For the year, the Niners
are allowing 3.9 ypc to the RB position and, in recent weeks,
have made Maurice Morris and Warrick Dunn work to hit their high
yardage totals. Jackson, on the other hand, is seeing more work
but isn’t going to come anywhere close to averaging four
yards/carry this season. However, it was nice to see him reach
the 100-total yard mark for just the second time this season last
week vs. the Saints. Given the state of the offensive line, though,
even a 100% healthy Jackson isn’t going to do anything special
this season. Counting on him to post anything more than #2 RB-type
numbers consistently the rest of the way would be silly. As long
as he continues to not be set back by injury, he should collect
some decent all-purpose yardage totals though against a couple
of the teams left on the Rams schedule this season.
Projections:
Marc Bulger: 275 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Torry Holt: 60 rec/1 TD
Isaac Bruce: 75 rec
Drew Bennett: 50 rec
Randy McMichael: 25 rec
Steven Jackson: 75 rush/1 TD/40 rec
Trent Dilfer/Arnaz Battle/Darrell Jackson/Vernon
Davis
Frank Gore (vs. STL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Rams this season:
Niners
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Rams this season:
Niners
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 2.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 5.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 2.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 24.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 23.4/26.3/12.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 16
Passing Game Thoughts: With Kyle Boller taking over the mantle
in Baltimore, the worst offense in the league may belong to the
Niners. The ESPN crew (thank you, Jaws) did a great job of illustrating
to the viewing audience as to why Alex Smith is struggling so
much with his accuracy. His left leg (the plant leg on his follow-through)
is as straight as a leg can be, meaning every ball he throws is
going to sail. Now while that doesn’t help the world fantasy-wise
so much, combine that with his bum shoulder and it does explain
why no one – outside of Davis – is usable in fantasy
leagues right now. Enter Dilfer. Even with a healthy QB, San Fran
will have a hard time shedding the title of “league’s
worst offense”, and as such, it is hard to recommend using
any of these players – even Davis – against the Rams,
who did a pretty fair job against a shell-shocked Saints’
offense. Expect a heavy dose of the blitz and a lot of short throws.
The bad thing is that if San Francisco can’t get Gore going,
they may get shut out again.
Running Game Thoughts: If there is any good news, it is that
Gore scored the last time he saw the Rams. The bad news is since
that 2-TD day in Week 2, he hasn’t scored since. The frustrating
thing for Gore owners and Niners fans is the lack of patience
with the running game. Gore has shown his usual burst in just
about every game, but for as pathetic as the passing attack is,
the fact they fail to run consecutive running plays anymore than
they do is tough to explain. Granted, being without OT Jonas Jennings
and G Justin Smiley will set back an offense, but there is rarely
ever an excuse for Gore not to touch the ball 20 times. The last
time he had 20 touches?? You guessed it, Week 2. Gore will run
up against an improving Rams run defense, but one that can get
beat. As long as he can handle it physically, Gore should see
20 touches. However, if St. Louis can come close to repeating
the start they had against New Orleans, he’s probably not
going to get that chance. He’ll put up some yards, but hoping
that a player will score after he’s be shut out of the end
zone for over two months is a risk I’d just as soon not
take.
Projections:
Trent Dilfer: 180 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Arnaz Battle: 60 rec
Darrell Jackson: 45 rec
Vernon Davis: 40 rec/1 TD
Frank Gore: 85 rush/1 TD/30 rec
Rex Grossman/Bernard Berrian/Muhsin Muhammad/Desmond
Clark/Greg Olsen
Cedric Benson/Adrian Peterson (vs. SEA)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Seahawks this season:
N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Seahawks this season:
N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 7.9/11.8/6.9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 23.2
 Passing
Game Thoughts: Hopefully, we have seen the evidence as
to why some QBs are perfect in a backup role – good for
some spot starts – and how some just need a good supporting
cast. I believe that Griese has proven to be the former over his
career and if Grossman hopes to avoid a similar fate, he will
need to prove it over the last six games. It has been said that
it is unfair to accurately judge a QB until he has made two full
seasons-worth of starts (32 games). If Grossman plays out the
string, he will hit that mark. Here’s what we know fantasy-wise
up to this point: When Grossman starts, Berrian is the only WR
worth playing. However, this is not a favorable matchup for Grossman
or his teammates to begin the process of building chemistry again.
Drew Brees – in Week 6 – is the only QB to throw for
two scores against this defense and, as a result, score more than
20 points against the Seahawks. Only three WRs have cracked the
10-point mark against Seattle and more impressively, the Seahawks
have allowed just two WR scores all season long. The news at TE
isn’t much better as Heath Miller and Kellen Winslow are
the only players at the position to hit the double-digit mark.
Running Game Thoughts: We all know the media gets it wrong just
about as much as they get it right, but something I have learned
regarding fantasy football is where there is smoke, all too often
there is fire. When a passing game goes dry, teams do not make
wholesale changes at the skilled positions, they usually pull
the QB. Likewise, when a running game struggles, teams don’t
replace all five linemen, it’s the RB who usually gets replaced.
In previous seasons, with their dominating defense, the Bears
would have been able to get away with Benson’s abysmal 3.0
ypc average. But with the defense somewhat in flux, the running
game could use a bit of explosion – especially on the perimeter
– and that is not something Benson is ever going to give
Chicago. Much like I said last week, we may very well be seeing
the end of Benson’s workhorse days – for this year
anyway. The case could easily be made if Benson runs for just
2.6 ypc against one of the worst run defenses in the league (the
same defense Ron Dayne tortured for 5.8 ypc), he’s not going
to do it against any team. Seattle is in the middle of the pack
in terms of allowing fantasy points to RBs (13th overall at 18.6
per game) and has surrendered the fourth-most receiving yards
to RB as well, something that is much more Peterson’s game
than Benson’s. All in all, it would be mildly surprising
to me if Benson receives 20 carries in a game from here on out.
Projections:
Rex Grossman: 200 pass/0 TD/1 INT
Bernard Berrian: 60 rec
Muhsin Muhammad: 40 rec
Desmond Clark: 30 rec
Greg Olsen: 50 rec
Cedric Benson: 60 rush/10 rec
Adrian Peterson: 45 rush/10 rec
Matt Hasselbeck/Deion Branch/Bobby Engram/DJ
Hackett
Maurice Morris (vs. CHI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bears this season:
Packers
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bears this season:
N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 14.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 23.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 6.9/14
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 12.1
Passing Game Thoughts: On paper, this appears to be an offense
finding its stride in the passing game vs. a struggling, injured
defense. In reality, the Bears are on of the few teams that Seattle
doesn’t match up all that well against. Remember in their
playoff meeting last year it was a fresh Shaun Alexander that
nearly allowed the Seahawks to steal a road game away from the
Bears. While some of the cast has changed on both sides, the fact
remains that Chicago surrendered 20 points to an opposing QB just
once this year (Tony Romo) and has yielded just three TD passes
over the last five games, including none in the last two. That
said, Hasselbeck is an every-week start right now, especially
with the renewed emphasis on the passing game and the imminent
return of Branch. The Seahawks signal-caller has thrown for two
or more scores in four straight games and six of his last seven.
(He has also been picked off in seven consecutive games as well.)
With Branch apparently healthy and taking his old covered flanker
spot back, he becomes an automatic good play almost regardless
of the opponent. With the aforementioned emphasis on the passing
game and the flanker position so key to Seattle’s offense,
it would be a shock if Branch wasn’t targeted 12-15 times
this week. Hackett has done nothing to discourage the expectations
that owners had of him in the preseason, even if it took nine
weeks for him to finally realize them. For his current owners,
he should produce at a mid-#3 WR level in this game. While only
three WRs have hit double digits against Chicago, it would be
a mild surprise if Branch or Hackett didn’t do it this week,
consider Hasselbeck will be throwing close to 40 times.
Running Game Thoughts: The model laid in place in Week 10 vs.
San Fran would figure to be the one that is executed in the near
future. This offense has yet to recover from Steve Hutchinson’s
departure and more recently, the loss of FB Mack Strong. Morris
posted a fine fantasy game against the Niners, but even an average
running game would have seen its lead back do much more with 31
touches. Instead, Morris struggled to average 3.1 ypc, suggesting
that while Shaun Alexander may have lost a step, he is not the
only reason this running game is sluggish. I expect Seattle to
run out of 3-and-4 WR sets a lot in this game and copy the formula
Detroit used to beat Chicago twice already this season. Spread
the Bears’ defense out with their quality WRs the defense
has to respect, throw for a high percentage (Jon Kitna completed
75% of his attempts in the two games combined) and run quick-hitters
inside to attack a soft interior defensive line. Don’t expect
anything close to the 28 attempts Morris got in Week 10, but it
should still be enough for him to be worth a play as a #2 RB this
week.
Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck: 220 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Deion Branch: 65 rec
Bobby Engram: 50 rec
DJ Hackett: 70 rec/1 TD
Maurice Morris: 70 rush/25 rec
Tom Brady/Randy Moss/Wes Welker/Donte Stallworth/Ben
Watson
Laurence Maroney (vs. BUF)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bills this season:
Patriots
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bills this season:
Patriots
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 34.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 40.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 10.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 27.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 12.6/12.1/2.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 15.2
 Passing
Game Thoughts: Seriously, you don’t need any help
here. Stallworth has fallen a bit more out of favor with Welker
playing out of his mind. (Quite honestly, it boggles my mind why
more teams don’t use their great returners out of the slot
on a regular basis like the Pats do. And while Brady under center
helps, there are very few pro QBs who can’t make the throws
Brady does to Welker – most of the time, that is.) Brady
pounded the Bills for 34.6 points in Week 3 and unless Buffalo
gets hit by snow over the weekend, there’s little reason
he can’t do it again. In that first meeting, Moss had one
of his ho-hum 100-yard, 2-TD games, Welker didn’t score
(but wasn’t being used nearly like he is now) and Watson
visited the end zone. Buffalo is hardly as good of a defense as
its last four opponents have made them look, but they are better
than the team that got pasted by the Pats the first time. Until
typical Northeast weather sets in the New England-New York area,
assume 3-4 TDs from this unit just about every week until further
notice.
Running Game Thoughts: I tend to believe that be it due to weather
or opposition, New England will turn to its running game on a
more consistent basis before the end of the season. However, right
now…why would the Patriots change? As such, expect about
15-18 touches for Maroney each week and about another 10-12 for
Kevin Faulk. Because defenses haven’t given them a reason
to stop passing in the red zone, don’t expect a score from
Maroney anytime soon either. That said, Maroney’s lone 100-yard
rushing effort came against Buffalo earlier this season, so if
managed to survive without typical #1 RB production from him thus
far, Maroney may be able to put up some respectable yardage totals
in this contest.
Projections:
Tom Brady: 280 pass/3 TD/0 INT
Randy Moss: 90 rec/1 TD
Donte Stallworth: 45 rec
Wes Welker: 85 rec/1 TD
Ben Watson: 30 rec/1 TD
Laurence Maroney: 80 rush/20 rec
JP Losman/Lee Evans/Roscoe Parrish
Anthony Thomas/Dwayne Wright (vs. NE)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Patriots this season:
Bills
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Patriots this season:
Bills
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 0.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 8.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 17.6
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 11.8/8.9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 19.3
Passing Game Thoughts: Until I see them have any iota of success
against a quality pass defense, I’m going to continue believing
the Bills have a pathetic passing attack. Bills QBs combined for
0.1 fantasy points vs. the Pats the first time around. New England
knows as long as they control Evans, Buffalo isn’t going
to do much. As such, there is no good reason to start any member
of the Bills’ passing game this week.
Running Game Thoughts: With Marshawn Lynch likely out due to
ankle injury, fantasy owners lose yet another dependable runner.
Of course, about the only thing Buffalo has been able to count
on all season long is their running game. Lynch owners could do
worse than turning to the A-Train, who should get the benefit
of a lot of work just for the simple fact that the passing game
will struggle. And if there is one way the Patriots can get beat
this year, it is against the run – even though the New England
defense is better than average at stopping that as well. What
complicates matters is that Buffalo needs Lynch 100% healthy if
it plans on staying competitive against New England for any length
of time. So if Lynch is declared inactive – which looks
very likely now – the starter figures to be Thomas. And
if the first game is any indication, the Bills will need to score
early if they hope to be in a competitive game by halftime.
Projections:
JP Losman: 150 pass/0 TD/2 INT
Lee Evans: 30 rec
Roscoe Parrish: 45 rec
Anthony Thomas: 60 rush/1 TD/20 rec
Dwayne Wright: 25 rush/20 rec
Vince Young/Roydell Williams/Justin Gage
LenDale White/Chris Brown (vs. DEN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Broncos this season:
Jags
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Broncos this season:
Jags
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 15.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 11.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 18.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.2/30
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 13.7
 Passing
Game Thoughts: There is perhaps a small glimmer of hope
that Young can build on his 52-yard rushing performance from a
week ago vs. one of the worst rush defenses in the league. However,
it’s hard to advise using a roster spot – let alone
a starter’s spot – for a QB that has accounted for
just six TDs in eight starts. The team is promising to work Gage
into the rotation more often after he posted 90 yards and a TD
last week, but once again, his numbers came in a comeback effort,
something they should not have to do much of against the Broncos.
With bye weeks over, there just isn't a good reason to run out
anyone from this passing game, even considering the injured state
of the Denver secondary.
Running Game Thoughts: After getting their lunch handed to them
last week vs. the Jags, White (and possibly Brown) have to be
licking their chops at the thought of seeing Denver’s porous
run-stopping unit. Priest Holmes’ 7.9 points last week was
the lowest total by an opposing RB all season, and despite having
allowed just five RB scores all season long, the Broncos have
surrendering the second-most rushing yards to RBs. While I suspect
that Young will steal some of the TD glory, I expect 35-40 carries
from White and Brown (or Chris Henry if Brown cannot go) this
week, making each quite playable.
Projections:
Vince Young: 135 pass/0 TD/1 INT/40 rush/1 TD
Roydell Williams: 40 rec
Justin Gage: 50 rec
LenDale White: 100 rush/2 TD/15 rec
Chris Brown: 55 rush/15 rec
Jay Cutler/Brandon Marshall/Brandon Stokley/Tony
Scheffler
Travis Henry/Selvin Young (vs. TEN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Titans this season:
Texans
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Titans this season:
Texans
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 28.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 38.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 8.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 8.4
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 7.5/10.4/1.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 21.4
Passing Game Thoughts: With one exception – Sage Rosenfels
– it has been bad news for just about every other QB that
has taken on the Titans defense, fantasy-wise anyway. No QB besides
Rosenfels threw for more than one score vs. Tennessee and opponents
have thrown for only nine TDs all season long as opposed to 13
picks. Cutler, on the other hand, has been unspectacular but generally
good for around 14 fantasy points per game. That sounds about
right for an offense that doesn’t figure to score many points
against the Titans. Much like the QBs, WRs haven’t fared
all that well against Tennessee. That said, Marshall has seen
no fewer than seven targets in a game all season long, so his
owners can be assured he will be worth a start despite a tough
matchup and he has the best chance to score of anyone in a Bronco
uniform. Stokley has received about the same number of looks Marshall
has while Javon Walker has been out, but he should only be played
this week if you are desperate for a #3 WR. With their solid linebacker
and safety play, it is little wonder Dallas Clark is the only
TE to do significant damage to the Titans defense. Scheffler,
like Stokley and Cutler, should only be played if absolutely necessary.
Running Game Thoughts: People don’t really want to believe
it but it’s amazing how the absence of just one defensive
lineman can take one of the best run defenses and turn it into
something very average. DT Albert Haynesworth sat out with a bum
hammy in Week 10 vs. the Jags and Jacksonville promptly put three
RBs over the 10-fantasy point mark, four rushing scores and 166
yards rushing. This after not allowing 100 yards rushing to any
teams’ RBs and permitting only two RBs to score more than
10 points against them. Needless to say, his presence alone should
really dictate whether or not Henry/Young owners start their back.
Without Haynesworth, both RBs are low-end #2 RB plays. With him
in the lineup, the Bronco running game probably will struggle
all night long. Completely healthy, Tennessee’s run defense
is among the top five in the league, at the very worst. Also consider
that injuries have riddled Denver’s o-line and the run game
is nowhere as good as it used to be. So unless we get some kind
of clarification late in the week on who is starting in the backfield
for Denver, it would be advisable to sit both RBs.
Projections:
Jay Cutler: 220 pass/1 TD/2 INT
Brandon Marshall: 75 rec/1 TD
Brandon Stokley: 55 rec
Tony Scheffler: 40 rec
Travis Henry: 35 rush/10 rec
Selvin Young: 50 rush/30 rec
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