QBs: (1 pt per 25 yds passing; 6 pts for all TDs, -2 pts/INT or fumble)
RBs/WRs/TEs: (1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 6 points per TD)

Note: Teams that have a fantasy relevant TE will be included. Also, for the first weeks, projected fantasy points allowed will be used as teams have yet to establish any trends. After the first month of the season, this column will take on the look it had last season as there will be enough information to start analyzing trends.

GB @ DAL | ATL @ STL | BUF @ WAS | DET @ MIN | HOU @ TEN | JAX @ IND | NYJ @ MIA | SD @ KC
SEA @ PHI | SF @ CAR | TB @ NO | CLE @ ARI | DEN @ OAK | NYG @ CHI | CIN @ PIT | NE @ BAL

Packers @ Cowboys
Brett Favre/Donald Driver/Greg Jennings/James Jones/Donald Lee
Ryan Grant (vs. DAL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cowboys this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Cowboys this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 17/15.6/13.1
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 10.9

Passing Game Thoughts: Favre is arguably is playing as good as he ever has this season. Since he became a starter in 1992, he has thrown at least 13 INTs in every season. At his current pace, he will finish with 32 TDs and 12 INTs – his best TD-INT differential since 1996 when he went 39-13. Simply amazing. While it hasn’t been often, the Cowboys have shown the chinks in the defensive armor are in the passing game, giving up four 23+ point efforts to the QB position this season. Count on Favre to make it No. 5. He has passed for over 300 yards in four of his last five games and seven times overall this season – and given that the Packers’ rushing attack will struggle against a pretty stout defensive unit, Favre will be called up on around 40 times once again. While Driver got back into the good graces of fantasy owners last week, it should once again be Jennings who enjoys the most success once again. Most importantly, Driver figures to draw CB Terence Newman a lot of time – and he rarely gets scored on. That would leave Jennings on CB Jacque Reeves, who, at the very best, has struggled when faced with quality opposition. Lee has been more hit then miss this season, but Dallas has defended the TE well with the exception of Jeremy Shockey and Chris Cooley. He should get some yards, but don’t expect a score.

Running Game Thoughts: If you have secured the services of Grant for the rest of the season (or possibly longer in keeper leagues), congrats. For one week though, I believe he needs to be on the bench – if you have two other quality options, that is. Green Bay’s defense will keep them in this game, so he will get his touches. (He received 21 touches in a game last week when he was considered to be a game-time decision.) However, only five RBs have hit double-digits vs. the Cowboys at the RB position and the defense has surrendered just six RB scores, so there’s a good chance Grant doesn’t find the end zone. However, as I say quite often in this column, just about any RB who gets 20 touches is usable in fantasy nowadays and Grant is one of those players. Just don’t expect a repeat of his two 19-point games since becoming a starter in Week 9.

Projections:
Brett Favre: 300 pass/3 TD/1 INT
Donald Driver: 70 rec
Greg Jennings: 90 rec/2 TD
James Jones: 40 rec/1TD
Donald Lee: 55 rec
Ryan Grant: 65 rush/25 rec

Tony Romo/Terrell Owens/Patrick Crayton/Jason Witten
Julius Jones/Marion Barber (vs. GB)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Packers this season: Giants
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Packers this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 16.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 18.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 6.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16/18.5/2.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 19.3

Passing Game Thoughts: CB Charles Woodson remains questionable with a foot injury. His presence is needed against an offense that has scored at least 24 points in every game and will do so again without him in the lineup. CB Al Harris – as physical of cornerback as there is in the league – figures to draw Owens regardless in what I think is the best matchup in this game. TO can deal with Harris’ tactics as well as any WR in the league can, but it is vitally important that Romo get the ball to Owens early in the game or Harris’ physicality will eventually wear on Owens’ psyche. Owens has scored in six straight games, but given the Packers’ rather remarkable pass defense vs. WRs lately, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that streak come to an end if: 1) Crayton is healthy and 2) Dallas takes advantage of their best matchup, Witten on S Atari Bigby. I expect Witten and the Crayton, most likely, to have good days if Woodson is gone. If Woodson is available, then I expect Witten to have a monster day. Why the confidence in Witten? Only Drew Carter surpassed the 100-yard mark at WR vs. Green Bay so far this season. Meanwhile, three TEs have hit the mark against them and the position has scored six TDs vs. the Packers, whereas the Packers have yielded just seven WR TDs all season and only two since Week 4. Don’t sit TO, obviously, but he is likely just a yardage play this week while Witten (and maybe even Tony Curtis) should carry the load for the Cowboys in the passing game. Finally, just Philip Rivers has scored more than 22 fantasy points vs. Green Bay this season and while Romo and this offense will be the best the team has seen, Romo shouldn’t be expected to greatly exceed that mark.

Running Game Thoughts: Of all teams, the Detroit Lions seemed to exploit a flaw in the Packers’ run defense. Not only was the Lions’ run blocking very good (more on that later in the Lions section), but Kevin Jones continually made his living outside the tackles on Thanksgiving Day. Understand that it hasn’t been so much about effectiveness (Green Bay allows right at the annual league average of four ypc) as it has been about lack of opportunity (three RBs have received 20 carries since Week 5 but the Packers have either led all game or blew out the other team in each of the last four games so running attempts were not so much part of the normal offense per se). Because Green Bay usually holds a two-score lead, it has went a long way in its defense allowing just one 100-yard rusher this season (Adrian Peterson). How this applies to this game is simple. Barber seems to make his living late in games. To do so means that the Cowboys will be leading or within one score. I think that despite reports to the contrary earlier in the season, Dallas prefers Barber get the looks down by the goal line instead of just the end of “his” drives. So while Jones may sneak in as the best play one more week before the end of the season, Barber remains the best bet each week to score in the Cowboys’ running game. Lastly, look for a fair amount of receiving yards from the Dallas RBs in this contest, as the Packers have allowed the second-most to the RB position (588).

Projections:
Tony Romo: 290 pass/3 TD/1 INT/20 rush
Terrell Owens: 65 rec
Patrick Crayton: 75 rec/1 TD
Jason Witten: 100 rec/1 TD
Julius Jones: 45 rush/10 rec
Marion Barber: 60 rush/1 TD/30 rec

Falcons @ Rams
Joey Harrington/RoddyWhite/Michael Jenkins/Alge Crumpler
Warrick Dunn/Jerious Norwood (vs. STL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Rams this season: Ravens
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Rams this season: Panthers
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 9.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 16.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 1.0
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 19.2
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.6/21/7.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 13.7

Passing Game Thoughts: Unfortunately for the Falcons, their offense seems to boil down to whether or not White can break loose for a score. He has three of the team’s eight passing TDs and nearly a third of its yards. The Rams, while they haven’t been great in defending the opponent’s best WR, haven’t been bad either ever since CB Fahkir Brown returned to the team in Week 5. He’s worth a play at a #3 WR slot, but not much more because Atlanta hasn’t thrown for more than one TD pass in a game since Week 4. That transitions right to Harrington, who got off to such a great start on Thursday before the Colts figured things out and Indy remembered who they were once again. The Falcons are an example of a team right now that is playing just to get through the season. With its battered offensive line, Atlanta will run almost regardless of the score to keep its quarterbacks upright, which is not a bad idea to preserve the health of a team, but not a great plan for fantasy owners. Either way, the Rams could be had in the passing game if the Falcons wanted to attack them that way, but as I just stated, it is hard to believe they will. St. Louis has shown vulnerability vs. the TE, but Crumpler has just one game over 40 yards receiving this season. As hard as it is say to loyal Crumpler owners, you can probably do better this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Stat of the year: After surrendering 10 individual 100-yard rushers a season ago, the Rams have yet to allow one this season. While coincidence plays a role into some of that, the fact is St. Louis is just a bit better vs. the run (yardage-wise) than most owners realize or want to admit. They have, however, given up 10 rushing TDs. Since the Falcons neither classify as an elite rushing attack or a high-scoring outfit, they figure to fall in line with a lot of the Rams’ other opponents – an average amount of yards with a chance at one rushing score.

Projections:
Joey Harrington: 190 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Michael Jenkins: 30 rec
Roddy White: 60 rec/1 TD
Alge Crumpler: 35 rec
Warrick Dunn: 60 rush/15 rec
Jerious Norwood: 30 rush/10 rec

Gus Frerotte/Torry Holt/Isaac Bruce/Drew Bennett/Randy McMichael
Steven Jackson (vs. ATL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Falcons this season: Panthers
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Falcons this season: Bucs
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 16.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 7.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 3.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 23.7
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.7/16.2/11.6
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 17.3

Passing Game Thoughts: When I said last week that you may not want to count on Bulger, I didn’t mean that he would sustain/re-aggravate three injuries in less than a half. Even though Frerotte filled in well for him, Frerotte has repeatedly shown throughout his career why he is a spot starter at best and not a long-term option. This downgrades a St. Louis offense that was starting to find a bit of offensive rhythm despite a depleted offensive line behind Jackson’s strong running. In terms of this matchup, Holt should draw CB DeAngelo Hall, who because of his aggressive tendencies figures to get beat by a double move by Holt on at least one occasion in this contest. CB Chris Houston may also draw him some of the time as well. Houston is physical enough to give either Holt (or especially Bruce) problems off the line of scrimmage. As always though, expect Holt to be the better fantasy play. Because Frerotte will get the start, expect a heavy reliance on Jackson, especially in light of Atlanta’s 14-12 TD-INT ratio on defense this season. Three TEs have scored in the last two games vs. the Falcons, but McMichael has been far from consistent in terms of targets and production this season due in large part to all the injuries on the line. Count on a decent game from Holt and not much else from the passing game this week.

Running Game Thoughts: In all honesty, the run defense has fared much better fantasy-wise than I would have expected this season. Given the loss of mammoth DT Grady Jackson, this unit could have been expected to give up close to five yards/carry. However, the season average is around 4.35 – worse than average but not as pathetic as some have suggested it would be. That average would be a pleasant surprise for Steven Jackson, whose only game of averaging 4.0 ypc in a game he started and finished was in Week 11. Because the game figures to be low-scoring (and more importantly, close), Jackson should have every opportunity to give his owners a 100-yard rushing game. He has turned in four straight games of at least 11 points while Atlanta has allowed that many in five of its last six. As stated before, Jackson isn’t going to return to “stud” status again this year, but this is a strong enough matchup that he should put up low #1 RB numbers.

Projections:
Gus Frerotte: 250 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Torry Holt: 80 rec/1 TD
Isaac Bruce: 55 rec
Drew Bennett: 40 rec
Randy McMichael: 25 rec
Steven Jackson: 90 rush/1 TD/30 rec

Bills @ Redskins
Trent Edwards/Lee Evans/Roscoe Parrish
Fred Jackson (vs. WAS)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Redskins this season: Jets
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Redskins this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 20.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 14.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 23.8/23.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 19.5

Passing Game Thoughts: This is another one of about five teams that owners are hard-pressed to find a player they want on their team. Edwards has just one game over 200 yards passing and has thrown just one TD in parts of five games. Those numbers alone should scare any remaining Evans or Parrish owners from taking their player off the bench. And that is too bad, because the Redskins have been vulnerable to the deep ball lately. However, as rookie QBs go, most OC’s will try to play things as close to the vest as possible, meaning this game should be determined by who can run and who can stop the run, as cliché as that sounds.

Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn Lynch is likely still out, meaning there is probably below-average production coming out of this backfield again this week. Washington has surrendered just one 100-yard rusher this season although several have finished right on the door step. Either way, running on the Redskins has not been easy for RBs this season as they are averaging just 3.7 ypc against this defense. Jackson isn’t exactly explosive, so that average doesn’t figure to improve this game. One weakness the Washington defense has shown vs. opposing RBs is receiving yards, but Buffalo does not make a habit of finding their back in the passing game all that much. (Thirteen of the Bills’ RBs 44 catches on the season came last week vs. the Jags.) All in all, it figures to be another rough week for any owner invested in the Buffalo running game.

Projections:
JP Losman: 175 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Lee Evans: 55 rec
Roscoe Parrish: 50 rec
Fred Jackson: 55 rush/25 rec

Jason Campbell/Santana Moss/Antwaan Randle El/Chris Cooley
Clinton Portis (vs. BUF)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bills this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bills this season: Steelers
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 25.4
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 24.6/28.7/7.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 22.9

Passing Game Thoughts: It is now official…the reins have been taken off Campbell. Yes, four first-half fumbles necessitated a lot of second-half throwing, but this is back-to-back 30-completion games for Campbell after he had only attempted that many passes in seven of his 18 career starts. He also has posted consecutive 300-yard passing games as well. That said, that enthusiasm should be tempered some this week as the Bills are poor enough on offense that Washington probably will not need to drop Campbell back more than 30 times and have a good enough scoring defense to keep Campbell from throwing more than one TD pass. (Only Tom Brady, Tony Romo and Carson Palmer have thrown for two scores against them.) And since his preferred option is Cooley, who is coming off of successive 14.9+ point games, owners shouldn’t be in a rush to play Moss or Randle El this week. Teams that have faced Buffalo with a top-end TE (Ben Watson, Jason Witten) have fared pretty well against this defense. This game figures to be more of the same for the Redskins, that is, they will probably win if Portis and Cooley do well and probably lose if they don’t. It says here they will do well.

Running Game Thoughts: It was rather odd that Fred Taylor was allowed to explode last week while the Bills did a good job of holding Maurice Jones-Drew to 26 total yards on 12 touches, but either way, Buffalo maintained their streak of allowing at least 10 points to a RB (six games and 11 of 12). Because Washington would still much prefer to run than pass, expect Portis to see a heavy workload after being given a relative breather over the last two games. After suffering a two-fumble game last week, Portis did yield some carries to Ladell Betts, but I would be surprised if that carried over to this week. The fact is Buffalo has the fifth-friendliest defense vs. RBs in fantasy (20.4 per game) and I expect Portis to be given every chance to hit that number this week.

Projections:
Jason Campbell: 220 pass/1 TD/0 INT/20 rush
Santana Moss: 55 rec
Antwaan Randle El: 55 rec
Chris Cooley: 60 rec/1 TD
Clinton Portis: 100 rush/2 TD/15 rec

Lions @ Vikings
Jon Kitna/Roy Williams/Calvin Johnson/Mike Furrey/Shaun McDonald
Kevin Jones (vs. MIN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Vikings this season: Lions
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Vikings this season: Lions
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 17.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 42.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 8
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 23.1/31
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 16.2

Passing Game Thoughts: The plan has been quite clear the three times Kitna and OC Mike Martz have faced this defense together. Detroit has passed no fewer than 41 times in any of the previous meetings and you can expect a repeat of those numbers in this game as well. Kitna left for a brief period in the first meeting in the first meeting with a slight concussion and if the Vikings’ blitz is anywhere as successful as it has been recently, he may have to leave early in this game as well. However, it’s not a great idea for any owners to remove a QB from their lineup when that player has the weapons Kitna does and figures to throw in upwards of 50 times. With the exception of Brett Favre and Donovan McNabb, no QB has done all that well fantasy-wise vs. Minnesota, although each starting QB that has faced this unit has scored in double figures. (I personally think it would be a mistake for the Lions to not continue their game plan vs. the Packers, that is, run until the Vikes stop them, if for no other reason, to keep Kitna from getting battered.) In the first meeting, Williams had a field day and I would expect much the same in this affair. And in the second half of the Thanksgiving game last week, Kitna basically force-fed Johnson the ball. With three WRs receiving 10 targets in the first matchup between the teams (McDonald being the other one), it bodes well for any owner counting on any one of those three receivers. If you need further incentive, 12 individual WRs have hit the double-digit mark against the Vikes.

Running Game Thoughts: As I mentioned above, I believe it would be a mistake for Detroit to game plan for over 40 pass attempts in this game. If they fall behind, that’s another story. But if the game is competitive throughout, the Lions have shown they can be a very good running team. Against Green Bay, Detroit’s line struck me as a much better run-blocking unit than pass-blocking one. Now, that’s easy to say when an offensive line has surrendered 40+ sacks, but the Lions were literally blowing the Packers off the ball in the run game last week. Detroit owes it to itself – and to Kitna – to see if it cannot do the same to the Vikings. (But as we know with Martz’s offenses, what makes sense to most of us doesn’t always make sense to him.) And unlike last season when Minnesota did not start getting gashed in the run game until they were well out of contention, the Vikes have allowed at a RB to score double-digit points in five of their last six contests.

Projections:
Jon Kitna: 285 pass/2 TD/2 INT
Roy Williams: 85 rec/1 TD
Calvin Johnson: 60 rec/1 TD
Mike Furrey: 40 rec
Shaun McDonald: 65 rec
Kevin Jones: 40 rush/1 TD/30 rec

Tarvaris Jackson/Troy Williamson/Bobby Wade/Visanthe Shiancoe
Chester Taylor/Adrian Peterson (vs. DET)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Lions this season: Vikings
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Lions this season: Vikings
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 17.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 8.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 1.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 21.1
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 26.2/30.2/8.1
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 18.4

Passing Game Thoughts: I was pleasantly surprised to see Jackson hit Sidney Rice deep down the field on the second play of the game last week. However, considering Jackson attempted just 12 passes last week and that Minnesota has not attempted more than 26 passes in a single game since Week 4 continues to make every player here a fringe play at the very best. Keep an eye on Rice though – he is the explosive element this team needs. He has led or tied for the team lead in targets in each of the last two weeks and with any cooperation from the play-calling, could be the second-half version of Dwayne Bowe.

Running Game Thoughts: Peterson is likely back this week – that’s the good news. The bad news is that we have no idea how careful HC Brad Childress intends on being with his “franchise player”. So, if you are in the fortunate position of owning both backs, it would be safer (and probably wiser) to give Taylor the nod in your lineup if you have to choose between the two. If not, their owners could do much worse than plugging one in at the #2 RB slot and the other at the flex spot. Either way, the carries figure to be split like they were early on in the season. For those Peterson owners who have quality depth behind AD and know that RB will be getting a significant workload (Kolby Smith, Justin Fargas are a few examples), it may be prudent to play them instead of Peterson until we get to see just how stable his knee is. Detroit offers up an enticing matchup, but trying to get into the mind of an NFL head coach that hasn’t had to make this type of decision before (for his franchise) is laying the foundation for an nerve-wrecking Sunday for his fantasy owners.

Projections:
Tarvaris Jackson: 155 pass/1 TD/1 INT/20 rush
Troy Williamson: 30 rec
Bobby Wade: 50 rec
Visanthe Shiancoe: 20 rec
Chester Taylor: 55 rush/1 TD25 rec
Adrian Peterson: 70 rush/1 TD/25 rec

Texans @ Titans
Matt Schaub/Andre Johnson/Kevin Walter/Owen Daniels
Ahman Green/Ron Dayne (vs. TEN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Titans this season: Texans
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Titans this season: Texans
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 31.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 42.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 8.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 8.4
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 18.4/22.7/3.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 31

Passing Game Thoughts: The last time these teams met, there was an offensive explosion. However, it was Sage Rosenfels completing a comeback without Johnson to throw to. And as we have learned since DT Albert Haynesworth has been out these past three games, his absence has sent a shockwave through the Titans in just about every facet. Don’t be surprised if he is ready to play this week, whether he actually is or not. Because the cast of characters are so much different than they were in Week 7, it’s hard to say with any certainty there will be much carryover from the previous meeting. After a down game vs. Cleveland, expect Andre Johnson to be given every chance to copy Chad Johnson’s three-score day from a week ago if Haynesworth and CB Nick Harper are held out. (Even with the duo in the lineup, the Titans have had some trouble getting beat deep.) Much like Andre Johnson, if Tennessee is minus its two aforementioned defensive cogs, Schaub should have plenty of time to pick apart the Titans. Tennessee has surrendered two straight 18+ point performances after allowing only Rosenfels and Peyton Manning to do it in the season’s first 10 weeks. Walter would be a solid #3 WR play if the Titans are still shorthanded while Daniels figured to be an average play at best. Daniels scored for the first time last week, but is facing the second-toughest defense vs. TEs in Tennessee.

Running Game Thoughts: Green looks he is on track to go this weekend, which muddies what had been the Dayne show lately. More than likely, they will limit Green – if he does go – to no more than 15 touches, making both backs flex plays at best and worthy of placing on the bench if Haynesworth can play. And it is against the run where the defensive tackle’s presence has been missed the most. Six RBs have scored more than 10 points against the Titans after Tennessee had yielded that many points to just two RBs through nine weeks. As funny as it sounds, Haynesworth’s presence will substantially lower all the Texans’ values this week or his absence will increase it, simple as that.

Projections:
Matt Schaub: 225 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Andre Johnson: 80 rec
Kevin Walter: 60 rec
Owen Daniels: 50 rec
Ahman Green: 50 rush/25 rec
Ron Dayne: 40 rush/1 TD

Vince Young/Roydell Williams/Justin Gage
LenDale White/Chris Henry (vs. HOU)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Texans this season: Titans
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Texans this season: Titans
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 14
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 18.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 31.5
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 19.9/19.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 18.4

Passing Game Thoughts: Much like the Texans, Tennessee rolled offensively behind the arm their reserve QB, Kerry Collins. But as I have stated for a couple weeks now, the Titans fortunes (and those of their opponents) center on the availability of Haynesworth. In his absence, the team has had to lose its battering-ram approach for a passing game that has propelled Gage into “usable” status, but done little else. Believe it or not, Young has actually been somewhat usable fantasy-wise since Haynesworth’s injury, but last week vs. Cincy pushed that term just a bit. For now, we’ll assume Haynesworth can play. In that case, Young and Gage should ride the bench because the Titans should have enough defense to contain Houston for most of the day, which in turn would mean good things for White and Brown. In short, the passing game would return to its sub-30 pass attempt roots, making just about every member of the passing game a dicey play at best.

Running Game Thoughts: Once again, assuming Haynesworth returns, White would return to 20-25 carries, a mark he hit routinely before the defense went south. To put White’s recent drought into perspective, he has 28 carries combined over the past three games, this after collecting 31 in the team’s last win. This team and offense are well below average without their running game. So, until Haynesworth returns for sure, White and Brown owners should probably sit their Titans’ RBs. And it’s really too bad because the Texans have permitted at least 10 points to an opposing RB in six of their last seven contests with five of those efforts being 18 points or better. However, since Haynesworth appears to be a solid go, it would be advisable to get him in the lineup.

Projections:
Vince Young: 180 pass/1 TD/1 INT/25 rush
Roydell Williams: 40 rec
Justin Gage: 65 rec
LenDale White: 80 rush/1 TD/15 rec
Chris Brown: 40 rush/15 rec

Jaguars @ Colts
David Garrard/Dennis Northcutt/Reggie Williams
Fred Taylor/Maurice Jones-Drew (vs. IND)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Colts this season: Jaguars
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Colts this season: Jaguars
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 7.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 7.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 18.4
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 9.9/12.3
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 13.9

Passing Game Thoughts: Unlike the AFC South battle directly above this one, I expect a lot of carryover from these team’s first meeting. By now, we know that Garrard is quite efficient and is not likely to turn the ball over. That said, he will be needed to makes things happen as the Colts’ defense should have the same kind of success it enjoyed in Jacksonville stopping the run. Despite last week’s strong effort from Taylor, the Jags running game is not the beast it was last year and Indy is many times better at stopping it. And while he is a steady fantasy start, Garrard should probably be benched this week vs. a defense that has allowed multiple QB scores just three times this season. In fact, only two QBs have thrown for more than 200 yards! Williams has seemingly emerged as this unit’s big-play threat with three double-digit games in his past four, but a closer look reveals he has caught more than two passes in a game only twice this season! That is way too dicey for my tastes. Ernest Wilford and Northcutt continue to see the most targets, but are not worthwhile plays at this point. Indy has been beat deep a handful of times lately, but no one from this unit is consistently able to get deep besides maybe Matt Jones, and that’s a chance not worth taking at this point.

Running Game Thoughts: Taylor had a huge game last week as the Bills seemed intent on letting him run wild when he was in the lineup but making sure MJD was bottled up. Despite how well the Jags have matched up with the Colts in recent years, this edition (in my opinion) does not. I expect a near carbon-copy of the first game with MJD and Taylor getting nearly equal work but very little opportunity to score. Only LaDainian Tomlinson has scored more than 13.1 points vs. the Colts, so a long day in the noisy RCA Dome should be expected for this ground attack.

Projections:
David Garrard: 190 pass/1 TD/1 INT/20 rush
Dennis Northcutt: 50 rec
Reggie Williams: 35 rec
Fred Taylor: 45 rush/20 rec
Maurice Jones-Drew: 60 rush/25 rec

Peyton Manning/Reggie Wayne/Anthony Gonzalez/Dallas Clark
Joseph Addai/Kenton Keith (vs. JAX)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Jaguars this season: Colts
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Jaguars this season: Colts
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 23
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 14.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 13.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 23.9
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 19.4/16.9/6.2
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 15.4

Passing Game Thoughts: The Jags are allowing the tenth-most points per game to opposing QBs, so feel fairly confident that Manning will live up to his reputation this week. Admittedly, much like Jacksonville’s defense, the Colts’ offense isn’t quite the machine it has been in years past. As for the numbers, the Jags have surrendered at least one TD pass in every game since Week 2 while Manning has struck at least once in all but one game, including six games with two or more scores. Much of that success that WRs have enjoyed vs. Jacksonville has come from the receiver facing CB Brian Williams. Like it was in the first meeting, that fact should mean Wayne continues his stellar season. The Jags have permitted five 100-yard receivers and seven double-digit performers at the position, including Wayne’s 13.1-point performance in Week 6. Gonzalez was just getting included in the game plan at Marvin Harrison’s old spot when the teams first met, but recorded his first 100-yard game last week, which should signal his comfort level at the position. However, he figures to draw CB Rashean Mathis, who will likely keep him bottled up for most of the game. That does figure to free up Clark, who should fall in line with other top-end TEs who have faced Jacksonville. Clark, Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez have all faced the Jags, and the lowest output any of them had was Gonzo’s 10-point performance in Week 5.

Running Game Thoughts: Jacksonville’s defense, especially since LB Mike Peterson was lost for the season, is not the vaunted unit that many believe it is. Including Week 7’s loss to the Colts, Jacksonville has allowed at least 20 overall points to opposing RBs in four of the last six games. This is a good thing for Addai owners, who probably did a double-take when he was injured early in the first half last Thursday. He would return late as if to signal to his owners that he would be in fine shape for this week’s game. Assuming an injury-free performance in this game, Addai owners should expect top-of-the-line numbers from him this week.

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 260 pass/2 TD/0 INT
Reggie Wayne: 100 rec/1 TD
Anthony Gonzalez: 40 rec
Dallas Clark: 70 rec/1 TD
Joseph Addai: 85 rush/1 TD/30 rec
Kenton Keith: 30 rush/10 rec

Jets @ Dolphins
Kellen Clemens/Laveranues Coles/Brad Smith/Justin McCareins
Thomas Jones (vs. MIA)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Dolphins this season: Jets
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Dolphins this season: Jets
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 20.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 17.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 12.9
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 10.4/12.9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 16.7

Passing Game Thoughts: Just like the Dolphins’ MNF game, fantasy owners may just as well wipe their mind clear of the Jets’ Thanksgiving Day game. They were on a short week against a superior team without Coles and they kept things as basic as possible. Chad Pennington was under center in the first meeting between these teams in Week 3 and was one of the five QBs to score more than 20 points vs. Miami before its Week 9 bye. Since then, the Dolphins have kept the QB numbers down, but understand that the QBs were JP Losman, AJ Feeley (after he subbed for an injured Donovan McNabb) and Ben Roethlisberger on a field that no NFL team should have to play on. Point is, Miami’s last four games have either been against bad offenses, a backup QB or in impossible conditions (including the game vs. the Giants in London). While CB Will Allen is stepping up his play, he needs help. The “help” may come in the form of a banged-up receiver core, as Coles is fighting a high ankle sprain and Jerricho Cotchery is likely out with a finger injury. If both players must sit, then Clemens has to be downgraded despite a matchup vs. the ninth-easiest defense for QBs to score against – and that doesn’t take into consideration the “success” it has enjoyed over the last month. Because it is nearly impossible to tell which Jets WRs will go, I will just say that the Dolphins have surrendered 13 WR scores and have been routinely beaten by opponent’s best deep threat.

Running Game Thoughts: Regardless of weather conditions, Jones should have every opportunity to pick up his first score of the season. The Dolphins are clearly working in their young talent and have struggled to score – just like the opposition has – in tough conditions. But unlike their opponents, I’m not sure that anything beyond the Miami running game is going to help the Dolphins put points on the board. That said, the chances of Jones rushing for 100 yards seem to be better – can you believe TJ is on pace to go well over 1,000 yards rushing? Excluding the Patriots game where New England didn’t bother using any one RB for more than six carries, every lead RB has scored 8.9 points or better with that “weak” effort coming in the slop in Pittsburgh vs. Willie Parker last week. TJ is a strong #2 RB play this week – pure and simple.

Projections:
Kellen Clemens: 200 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Laveranues Coles: 80 rec/1 TD
Brad Smith: 50 rec
Justin McCareins: 25 rec
Thomas Jones: 80 rush/1 TD/20 rec

John Beck/Marty Booker/Ted Ginn
Jesse Chatman (vs. NYJ)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Jets this season: Dolphins
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Jets this season: Dolphins
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 19.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 18.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 39.1
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.4/17.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 19.7

Passing Game Thoughts: We can pretty much forget last week’s MNF (for analysis purposes) that will forever live in the minds of fantasy football fans as one of the ugliest games in this decade, if not ever. (Congrats to the owners of the Steelers defense, by far, the biggest winner of the night.) Either way, rain or not, this is just a unit that is not worthy of fantasy play anytime soon. Despite the deplorable conditions, I was impressed by the poise and decision making of Beck, who should stop the revolving door at QB for the Dolphins so long as they surround him with quality skilled position talent very soon. For the Jets, CB Darrelle Revis guarded Terrell Owens most of Thanksgiving Day and held up very well – even TO’s TD grab was well-guarded. New York should have a keeper at that spot for some time. Beck repeatedly look the way of Ginn, so if you must play a Dolphin, I would recommend Ginn.

Running Game Thoughts: Thank you, Ricky Williams – football’s answer to Steve Howe. Even though Chatman is quite banged up, it would be unwise to allow Beck to throw all day when the strength of the offensive line is run-blocking, so expect Chatman to gut it out against a porous Jets run defense. New York has surrendered 1,879 total yards to the RB position already this season and while they have had some decent defensive efforts lately, they haven’t kept a lead RB under 13.9 points on the road yet. As matchups go this week, this is pretty close to a sure thing – if he can get through the game.

Projections:
John Beck: 200 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Marty Booker: 50 rec
Ted Ginn: 55 rec/1 WR
Jesse Chatman: 90 rush/1 TD/40 rec

Chargers @ Chiefs
Philip Rivers/Vincent Jackson/Chris Chambers/Antonio Gates
LaDainian Tomlinson (vs. KC)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Chiefs this season: Chargers
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Chiefs this season: Chargers
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 10.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 8.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 7.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 23.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 10.8/10.5/6.3
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 21.6

Passing Game Thoughts: Forty plays last week ended up in Tomlinson or Gates’ hands or were intended to go in that direction. The result? A blowout win vs. Baltimore. In all honesty, those totals should be the rule more than the exception. Rivers has hardly been overly predictable this season, exploiting matchups that would seem to be difficult considering the reputations of the defenses he has done well against (Green Bay, Baltimore, Denver, Jacksonville) while performing at an average level at best vs. average defenses. However, the only game the Chargers have played well on the road was against Denver. Only two QBs have put above-average numbers against the Chiefs defense, meaning it would be wise to find another option this week at QB (Kurt Warner comes to mind). Combining the fact that a San Diego WR hasn’t scored more than 10 points since Week 5 and the Chiefs have surrendered just five 10-point receivers all season would appear to make them poor plays as well. Gates should also have a fairly quiet day considering KC hasn’t allowed more than eight points to any TE this season, including Gates in Week 4.

Running Game Thoughts: You don’t need me to tell you to play LT. So, I will only say that the schedule-makers did his owners a favor by giving him KC in Week 13, or at least it sure looks that way. Justin Fargas became the third RB – including LT – to score more than 20 points against the Chiefs last week and the third one in as many weeks to score more than 16.

Projections:
Philip Rivers: 200 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Vincent Jackson: 35 rec
Chris Chambers: 40 rec
Antonio Gates: 70 rec
LaDainian Tomlinson: 110 rush/2 TD/40 rec/1 TD

Damon Huard/Dwayne Bowe/Eddie Kennison/Tony Gonzalez
Kolby Smith (vs. SD)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Chargers this season: Chiefs
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Chargers this season: Chiefs
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 21.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 22.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 15.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 15.4
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 18.6/20.2/6.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 18.9

Passing Game Thoughts: The late-week announcement that Brodie Croyle was out due to injury should be good news to Gonzalez fans as it was pretty clear this offense was going to be a lot of Bowe, a little Gonzalez and a lot of incompletions under Croyle’s watch. Gonzo had not even hit five points in a game since the second-year QB became the starter. With Huard under center, Gonzalez should have the opportunity to match the 13.1 points he scored vs. San Diego in the first meeting with the grizzled veteran taking snaps. Meanwhile, Bowe had nearly doubled Gonzalez in targets over that the last three games with Croyle as the QB (30-18). Bowe also had his breakout game vs. the Chargers in the first meeting, going for eight catches and 164 yards with a TD. So, while you can bet Bowe will draw a lot more attention this time around, he is a good enough talent that he won’t be shut down – his 63 yards receiving last week were his fewest since Week 6. The Chargers have been opportunistic as of late on defense, but are still allowing some nice point totals, especially to bigger receivers. Sidney Rice and Reggie Williams each gouged San Diego for 12+ points while Reggie Wayne went for more than 20. Those numbers set a pretty good baseline for what Bowe should get this weekend.

Running Game Thoughts: Over his career, Larry Johnson has owned the Chargers. However, LJ isn’t going to play this week, if not the season. So let’s face it, there isn’t a healthy RB left on the Chiefs’ roster that is going to challenge Smith for carries and no team that see San Diego regularly seems to run on them better than KC does. That is huge at this point of the season. And given the basic nature of this offense, the Chiefs are going to lean on the run no matter who is running the offense. Better yet is that even though the Chargers are much better vs. the run than the Raiders, Smith showed some skills as a receiver out of the backfield in his brief work before last week. (For those of you who didn’t get to see him, he is more Priest Holmes type of back than LJ, a slasher as opposed to a bruiser…LJ is the much better back though, don’t get me wrong.) Much like Holmes, what he lacks in speed and power, he makes up for in patience and vision. Since their Week 8 bye, the fewest rush attempts the Chiefs RBs have had in a game are 22 (last week’s 33 tied a season high). So while Adrian Peterson’s (MIN) monster game stands out as the only huge game registered against the SD defense, there is no reason that Smith won’t push 100 total yards if he can get the 28 touches LJ did in the first meeting between these teams.

Projections:
Damon Huard: 210 pass/2 TD/2 INT
Dwayne Bowe: 70 rec/1 TD
Eddie Kennison: 30 rec
Tony Gonzalez: 65 rec/1 TD
Kolby Smith: 80 rush/1 TD/35 rec

Seahawks @ Eagles
Matt Hasselbeck/Deion Branch/Bobby Engram
Shaun Alexander (vs. PHI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Eagles this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Eagles this season: Dolphins
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 7.8
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 18.2/26.9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 14.1

Passing Game Thoughts: After seeing the Eagles keep New England’s passing game out of the end zone for the most part, this game has to appear a bit more dicey to Hasselbeck owners than they probably thought initially. Philly has done a fine job limiting production against most of the QBs it has faced, allowing multiple games just three times this season. I expect that to stay the same vs. Seattle and Hasselbeck, who saw his five-game run of two TDs come to an end last week. Hasselbeck should be able at least a slightly above-average start for his owners, however, due to the amount of yards he should collect with this offense’s renewed emphasis on the passing game. The Eagles have surrendered three 20-point games and seven double-digit performances to WRs, making Branch a pretty fair #2 WR play. Engram, in light of DJ Hackett’s injury, figures to remain involved as he carries the title of “most trusted WR” in this offense. In the absence of Hackett, someone like Will Heller or Nate Burleson would seem the best bet to score, but that is hardly a recommendation on my end. In a matchup like this, play Branch and Engram, full well knowing you will get some decent yards.

Running Game Thoughts: Alexander looks to return this week, which likely sends the collective fantasy world into one united groan, that is, until he puts up a 100-yard game or scores twice in a game like he used to regularly. And if past numbers are any indication and if Alexander is truly 100% healthy, it could happen. Judging by the defensive numbers, when the Eagles have committed to stopping one part of a team’s offense, it has opened up the floodgates on the other end. In this game, Philly seems destined to try to shut down the pass. The Eagles have allowed just six RB scores, but four of those have come against Dallas and New England in the last four weeks. If you have more trusted options than Alexander this week (meaning you have the ability to play wait-and-see with him), give Alexander a chance to prove himself again. Otherwise, expect his usual contribution yardage-wise.

Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck: 215 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Deion Branch: 75 rec
Bobby Engram: 60 rec
Shaun Alexander: 65 rush/1 TD/15 rec

AJ Feeley/Kevin Curtis/Reggie Brown/LJ Smith
Brian Westbrook (vs. SEA)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Seahawks this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Seahawks this season: Saints
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 17.2
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 11.6/17.4/2.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 16.2

Passing Game Thoughts: Feeley figures to get another start in place of Donovan McNabb this week, but that doesn’t mean he should be a instant start for fantasy owners. Only three QBs all season have eclipsed the 20-point mark against the Seahawks, with Carson Palmer’s 21-point performance in Week 3 being the best one. Likewise, only Drew Brees and Palmer have even thrown for as many as two scores against Seattle. As expected, that success has carried over to the WRs, where no receiver has scored more than Isaac Bruce’s 12.3 points last week since the Bengals pushed Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh over that mark in Week 3. If there is a WR to play this week for the Eagles, it should be Curtis, who doesn’t figure to draw CB Marcus Trufant in coverage like Brown does. Only Kellen Winslow and Heath Miller have done all that much vs. Smith at TE, so don’t expect more than a few yards from him this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Of course Westbrook starts in fantasy leagues – he has scored 11.9 points or more in every game he has played this season. The Seahawks have surrendered 14.7 and 16.5 points to Cedric Benson and Steven Jackson, respectively, over the last two weeks and Westbrook – without a doubt – is a better play than either one. In fact, Seattle permits 19.6 points per game to the RB position, tied for seventh-most in the league.

Projections:
AJ Feeley: 225 pass/1 TD/20 INT
Kevin Curtis: 60 rec/1 TD
Reggie Brown: 55 rec
LJ Smith: 35 rec
Brian Westbrook: 90 rush/1 TD/60 rec

Niners @ Panthers
Trent Dilfer/Arnaz Battle/Darrell Jackson/Vernon Davis
Frank Gore (vs. CAR)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Panthers this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Panthers this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 22.8/20.4/13
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 13.8

Passing Game Thoughts: Did the hiring of offensive assistant Ted Tollner spark this offense or what? In all honesty, the Niners benefited from some good field position off of turnovers, shoddy coverage and tackling last week vs. Arizona. What I did see was a renewed emphasis on getting Davis and Gore the ball more in the passing game (19 of Dilfer’s 39 passes went in their direction, including a season-high 12 targets for Gore). And considering Carolina hasn’t scored more than 17 points since Week 6, a similar game plan should be in effect for the Panthers. Battle continues to be the most trusted WR in this offense, but should not be trusted in fantasy. Davis has been strong in three of his last four games – and not coincidentally, those three good games were when he received seven or more targets. Carolina has surrendered some pretty decent numbers to the TE against after facing a rather average slate of players at the position, so expect another fair yardage performance in this game. The Panthers have permitted five TDs to opposing TEs.

Running Game Thoughts: Before Carolina nicked up Ryan Grant and got an abbreviated start against Reggie Bush, the Panthers had surrendered at least 11 points to a RB in six straight games. Even though most would agree that the Niners’ offensive explosion was somewhat of a fluke, the part that wasn’t pure chance was the part where Gore received 32 touches. Good things happen when playmakers get opportunities, but this was just the second time he had 20 touches in a game this season (he had 22 in Week 2). Given the sorry nature of the Panthers’ offense, the game should be close enough throughout for Gore to work his magic yet again. He (or more like the Niner offense) needs to gain our trust again, but this contest is just about as good as it gets for an inconsistent fantasy RB.

Projections:
Trent Dilfer: 200 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Darrell Jackson: 40 rec
Arnaz Battle: 55 rec
Vernon Davis: 60 rec/1 TD
Frank Gore: 100 rush/1 TD/30 rec

Vinny Testaverde/Steve Smith/Drew Carter/Jeff King
DeShaun Foster (vs. SF)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Niners this season: Rams (2)
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Niners this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 17.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 18
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 2.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 23.8/32.4/6.9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 16.7

Passing Game Thoughts: Please just end the David Carr experiment now. We know the drill by now: if Carr plays, even Steve Smith is not usable in three-WR leagues. If Testaverde is able to fend off whatever pain he has that week and can start, Smith automatically goes to a low-end #1 WR option. That isn’t going to change vs. the Niners, who just got ripped apart by the Cardinals’ passing game. Considering three of the last five QBs to face this defense went over 23 points, Testaverde could make for a decent play if he can go. In short, Smith is top-end play if Testaverde starts and needs to find your bench if he doesn’t.

Running Game Thoughts: It’s really hard to believe this running game generates 15.2 points per game. It really is. Last week’s meager contribution – 3.2 points vs. the Saints. Foster carried nine times for -5 yards. Now that I can jump off the Adrian Peterson (CHI) bandwagon that I have been telling folks to get on lately, it may be about time for owners to claim DeAngelo Williams before Carolina realizes Foster is Carolina’s answer to Cedric Benson while Williams is in Peterson’s spot. Are the o-line situations on both teams bad? Yes, but it doesn’t mean that the more explosive back should be sitting either. However, Foster may get a reprieve vs. the Niners, a run defense that has permitted at least 8.3 points to each lead RB it has faced this season. That said, the run game is all the Panthers have right now when Testaverde cannot go and that’s a very bad thing. So, in short, Foster makes for a low-end #2 RB if Testaverde starts and is not worth starting if David Carr or Matt Moore get the call.

Projections:
Vinny Testaverde: 220 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Steve Smith: 85 rec/1 TD
Drew Carter: 55 rec/1 TD
Jeff King: 35 rec
DeShaun Foster: 70 rush/25 rec

Bucs @ Saints
Luke McCown/Joey Galloway/Ike Hilliard
Earnest Graham (vs. NO)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Saints this season: Bucs
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Saints this season: Bucs
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 20.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 30.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 21.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 18.3/23.1/9.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 12.9

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s quite likely Galloway owners have been looking forward to this week for some time. Why is that, you ask? Well, he routinely tortures the Saints twice a year. Now, while that may happen again this week, it won’t likely be Jeff Garcia throwing the ball to him, which should worry his owners a bit. McCown figures to get the start since Garcia figures to miss this week with a back injury. Either way, it’s a soft enough matchup that owners still need to start Galloway, but don’t expect a repeat of his 135-yard, two-TD performance vs. New Orleans in Week 2.

As matchups go, this is one of the better ones to exploit, but unlike RBs with little track record, I’m not a big fan of using a career backup QB in a critical spot with just one or two weeks before the playoffs begin and my team fighting for a spot in the postseason. And it is usually in these spots where a backup QB will go to his most familiar WR – that being a second-team WR, someone like Maurice Stovall or Michael Clayton. To make a long story short, bump every passing game player down a rung, with Galloway going from a #2 WR to #3, Hilliard from a low-end #3 to a flex or the bench

Running Game Thoughts: As is the case with most teams, when the starting QB goes down, the play-calling becomes more basic and coaches tend to lean on the running game more often. Graham, to his credit, has not disappointed and figures to get as much work as he can handle. He has scored 14 or more fantasy points in four of his last five contests, so even though New Orleans is pretty tough on RBs this season (only five TDs allowed to the position), the Bucs RBs should be able to repeat their 30 carries from the first meeting. Also bear in mind that Graham took all the RB touches last week, so there should be little threat of losing opportunities to Michael Pittman or Michael Bennett unless the games turns into a blowout, which it should not.

Projections:
Luke McCown: 190 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Joey Galloway: 70 rec/1 TD
Ike Hilliard: 50 rec
Earnest Graham: 75 rush/1 TD/30 rec

Drew Brees/Marques Colston/Devery Henderson/David Patten/Eric Johnson
Reggie Bush (vs. TB)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bucs this season: Saints
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bucs this season: Saints
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 18
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 24.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 2.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 19.9
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 17.9/17.8/9.2
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 14.6

Passing Game Thoughts: There is rarely ever a good time to consider benching Brees – let’s be honest, he’s hardly a BAD option – but only Peyton Manning threw for multiple TDs against Tampa Bay – fantasy’s toughest defense vs. QBs – so far this season. The Saints’ first meeting with the Bucs saw their offense stymied most of the day before a late Brees’ garbage-time score salvaged what could have been a terrible performance, but while I think this game will be much more competitive, I don’t think Brees’ 260-yard, one TD, one INT line from Week 2 will change all that much. Only three QBs – including Brees – has even thrown for 200 yards vs. Tampa Bay, so if you are fortunate enough to own someone like Kurt Warner or Jason Campbell, I believe you would be wise to go that route instead. Much as one would expect from such a tough pass defense, the Bucs are the third-toughest unit vs. WRs as well. Only Colston and Reggie Wayne have had any kind of fantasy success against them this season and only one WR has more than 82 yards receiving against Tampa Bay (Larry Fitzgerald). Chris Cooley and Dallas Clark are the only two TEs to have any kind of real success vs. this unit, so while Johnson should get some looks, he doesn’t get enough attention in this offense to make for a legit play this weekend.

Running Game Thoughts: Bush was held to single digits for the first time this season since becoming the full-time starter. However, his 12 total touches had a lot to do with that as did a shin injury as Aaron Stecker received more work than he did. And Bush’s all-around talents will be needed in this contest, as the Bucs haven’t allowed much in the way of rushing yards since Week 9. In part because Tampa Bay plays a lot of cover 2 defense, they do give up their fair share of receiving yards to the RB position. But it would be foolish to think that Bush will go crazy in this game just because he is a gifted receiver. Bush hasn’t scored in two straight while Tampa Bay has not allowed a RB touchdown in two weeks. It is unlikely Bush owners have better options on the bench at this point, but they shouldn’t be afraid to start them if they do – Earnest Graham would be an example. Expect #2 RB production from Bush this weekend and be happy if he can find the end zone.

Projections:
Drew Brees: 235 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Marques Colston: 90 rec
Devery Henderson: 35 rec/1 TD
David Patten: 35 rec
Eric Johnson: 25 rec
Reggie Bush: 60 rush/40 rec

Browns @ Cardinals
Derek Anderson/Braylon Edwards/Joe Jurevicius/Kellen Winslow
Jamal Lewis (vs. ARI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cardinals this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Cardinals this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 23/29.8/4.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 19.2

Passing Game Thoughts: The long and short of this matchup…start all Browns QBs, WRs and TEs. The only reason an owner would be apprehensive about not playing them – S Adrian Wilson – is out for the season, meaning Arizona will continue their aggressive ways without their best defensive player or play soft zones all day long against a pretty explosive offense. Anderson has thrown for 2-3 scores in all but two games since Week 5 and one could argue that he was a few breaks short of doing it in those games as well. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have surrendered two passing TDs in three straight games to offenses that aren’t hitting on all cylinders like Cleveland’s. Edwards got back into double digits last week after a three-week absence and even though he is listed as questionable going into the weekend, he figures to score well for the second week in a row since Arizona has allowed a WR to score at least 12 points in all but two games. I don’t recommend playing Jurevicius, but if you like playing a soft matchup and are week-to-week with your #3 WR, this may be a good week for him to end his seven-game scoreless drought. Finally, Winslow has proved himself to be one of the top TEs in the league. Perhaps, with Wilson in the lineup, I would have been a bit down on Winslow’s chances, but with him out, the former ‘Cane should have a huge game.

Running Game Thoughts: The passing games for both teams should take center stage, but Lewis has come up pretty big since the Browns’ Week 7 bye and especially over the last two weeks. In that time, he hasn’t had fewer than 17 touches in a game (since the bye) and rushed for 226 yards and two scores (last two games). Arizona just got pounded by Frank Gore last week for over 30 fantasy points and the Cardinals defense has surrendered at least nine points to all but one RB this season. Needless to say, if Lewis has been in the #2 RB slot for the past few weeks, leave him there. The schedule from here on out is quite friendly for him.

Projections:
Derek Anderson: 280 pass/3 TD/1 INT
Braylon Edwards: 85 rec/1 TD
Joe Jurevicius: 50 rec
Kellen Winslow: 90 rec/1 TD
Jamal Lewis: 75 rush/1 TD/25 rec

Kurt Warner/Anquan Boldin/Larry Fitzgerald
Edgerrin James (vs. CLE)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Browns this season: Steelers (2)
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Browns this season: Seahawks
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 28.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 23.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 14.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 24.7/24.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 13.7

Passing Game Thoughts: I know I promoted Browns-Texans as a shootout, but I’m going to try again. In terms of fantasy numbers, these teams are close to mirror images of each other. If you can live with the chance that Warner could get hurt early and may get replaced at the goal line (?), then you could be highly rewarded as he throws against a pass defense that has surrendered at least 19 points to all but one QB this season (Josh McCown) and is the friendliest defense vs. QBs in the league this season. Warner, on the other hand, has scored 22 or more points in three of his last four, with the lone exception being 18.4 vs. Cincy. For the WRs, the tendency has been so the flanker is outperforming the split end, but Fitzgerald is playing so well (and Boldin is playing at far less than 100% with a hip injury) that it would be unwise for Warner to look anywhere else. (Fitz had 15 targets last week and he should have that many again this week.) Outside of shutting down Andre Johnson – somehow, someway – last week, Cleveland has been pathetic at stopping good WRs from having huge days. All but two lead WRs this season have scored at least 11.5 points.

Running Game Thoughts: Coat-tailing off my earlier remark about mirror images, the Browns have been ever worse vs. the run than the Cardinals have been, fantasy-wise. Ron Dayne’s 8.5 points were the worst mark by a lead RB all season, joining Maurice Morris as the only lead RBs to not hit double digits vs. Cleveland. Suffice to say, this is the type of matchup that James may need to get kick-started as he is averaging 3.1 ypc since Arizona’s Week 9 bye, most of which have come against very suspect run defenses. (He was even pulled for Marcel Shipp at the goal line last week.) While we know Edge isn’t going to break a long run anymore, this is still the type of matchup he should be able to post top-end #2 RB numbers. If he doesn’t put up a two-figured number in this game, his owners may need to sit him down the stretch.

Projections:
Kurt Warner: 300 pass/3 TD/2 INT
Anquan Boldin: 75 rec/1 TD
Larry Fitzgerald: 110 rec/2 TD
Edgerrin James: 75 rush/25 rec

Broncos @ Raiders
Jay Cutler/Brandon Marshall/Javon Walker/Brandon Stokley/Tony Scheffler
Travis Henry/Selvin Young (vs. OAK)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Raiders this season: Broncos
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Raiders this season: Broncos
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 17.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 28.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 0.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 27.8
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 11.6/14.4/6.1
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 29

Passing Game Thoughts: This week’s result may be more of a function of where Denver was healthy position-wise as opposed to what the team thought was the Raiders’ biggest weakness. The numbers – along with common sense – suggest that the Broncos should run all day. However, they seemingly lack a RB who is healthy enough to take advantage of the matchup. And just like last season, after a slow start, Oakland’s defense is not one that opponents want to be forced into throwing against on a regular basis. Since their Week 5 bye, no QB has scored more than 15 points and only three of seven starting QBs even hit the double-digit mark. Understand that some of that has to do with team’s willingness to run all game long, but also recognize that this defense has yielded just two TD passes since Week 4. Cutler should add to that number, but he’s probably not going to have that great of a game either. Predictably, only Andre Davis and Bernard Berrian have enjoyed any kind of fantasy success since the Raiders bye. However, Marshall is having a sensational year and deserves recognition for the Pro Bowl as he is on pace for a 1,232-yard season with around six TDs. He hasn’t scored less than seven points all season long – incredible consistency for a player drafted as a #3 WR. Walker did not see any balls his way last week but figures to play second-fiddle to Marshall for at least the rest of this season while Stokley continues to get a fair amount of looks, but he should be kept in check vs. the Raiders CBs. Scheffler should be expected to have some yards, but Oakland has given up just one TE score, so keep expectations low with him as well.

Running Game Thoughts: If owners didn’t know it before, they know now that just about any RB is a good play vs. the Raiders defense. However, the question with the Broncos would be: who that lucky guy will be?. Henry is running on borrowed time – knee and looming suspension – and figures to share the load with Young (if only to keep Henry from hurting the knee further) assuming both can play. Andre Hall showed he was up to the task against a bad run defense last week, but seems unlikely to play this week with a bum ankle. So, I’ll stick with the advice from a few weeks ago: ride Young. He’s quicker, a more trusted receiver and his knee is in better condition than Henry’s. And it’s too bad this situation wasn’t a bit clearer – Oakland hasn’t kept a RB under 14.1 points since Week 3. (In the first matchup between the team, Henry ran for 128 yards.)

Projections:
Jay Cutler: 245 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Brandon Marshall: 80 rec
Javon Walker: 40 rec/1 TD
Brandon Stokley: 50 rec/1 TD
Tony Scheffler: 30 rec
Travis Henry: 50 rush/10 rec
Selvin Young: 60 rush/25 rec

Josh McCown/Jerry Porter/Ronald Curry
Justin Fargas (vs. DEN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Broncos this season: Raiders
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Broncos this season: Raiders
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 10.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 11.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 16.9
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 19.6/18
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 15.4

Passing Game Thoughts: I’d be crazy to promote any Raider passing game member as a good play at this critical juncture of the season, but considering no one in Denver’s secondary is remotely close to 100%, you could do worse. That said, expect Oakland to see just how “improved” the Broncos run defense is before they let McCown takes his shots. Daunte Culpepper has actually brought some credibility to this passing offense at times this season, helping guide the team to its last three 20-point performances. But as I said before, Fargas will get every opportunity to test this defense before McCown does. If you need to play a Raider, Curry remains the most consistent option, but Porter has led the WR corps in fantasy points in three of the last five games, not to mention the first time they played Denver in Week 2. Just one look at the numbers the Broncos’ opponents have been putting up at WR would suggest someone will put up a double-digit number – like Porter – as teams have experienced a great deal of success going deep on the injured secondary of Denver.

Running Game Thoughts: Some of the personnel changes that the Broncos have made in their defensive front and in their philosophy have produced much better results vs. the run. However, this will be the first time Denver will really be tested by a decent running game in some time. Also, bear in mind this recent “improvement” only means instead of routinely giving up 15-20 points per game to opposing RBs, now they are allowing 10-15. For Fargas owners, this may be his last good week, however, as the schedule turns tough for the remainder of the season.

Projections:
Josh McCown: 190 pass/1 TD/2 INT
Jerry Porter: 40 rec
Ronald Curry: 75 rec
Zach Miller: 30 rec
Justin Fargas: 65 rush/1 TD/30 rec

Giants @ Bears
Eli Manning/Plaxico Burress/Amani Toomer/Jeremy Shockey
Derrick Ward/Reuben Droughns (vs. CHI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bears this season: Broncos
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bears this season: Cowboys
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 24.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 20.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 14.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 29
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 19.3/20.8/7.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 20.8

Passing Game Thoughts: Even though the Bears’ run defense has struggled for most of the season, it seemed as if their pass defense had not suffered the same fate until they met the Seahawks and the Broncos over the past two weeks. Both Matt Hasselbeck and Jay Cutler threw for over 300 yards and two scores in their games against Chicago, which will try to bait Manning into repeating his disastrous outing against Minnesota last week. Admittedly, the Giants’ receivers and Manning were the very definition of “not being on the same page” as on two or three of the picks, Manning threw the ball when he had to and his receivers were clearly not in tune with needing to react to Manning getting pressured. But there are few excuses to make for a QB when he throws four INTs in one game, so I won’t make any. For all his struggles, Manning has still been a double-digit point producer in every game this season and Chicago has surrendered two of its three biggest numbers to opposing QBs the last two weeks. Burress finally broke his four-game scoring drought on a garbage-time TD, but what puzzles me is that his scoring catch is exactly the type of ball that Manning should be throwing to him regularly with his ankle injury, that is, a pass in which he can use his size to “box out” the defender. The Bears have struggled with bigger WRs all season long and it would not be a surprise if Burress – even in his condition – led the receivers in scoring again. (He has seen 24 targets the past two weeks despite his condition “worsening”.) Toomer has only had more than four catches twice this season and Chicago hasn’t allowed two WRs from the same team to score more than 10 points all season long. Shockey’s targets are up from earlier in the season, but his production is roughly the same. The Bears have surrendered pretty decent games to three of the four fantasy-relevant TEs they have faced so far (Gates, Witten, Scheffler).

Running Game Thoughts: With Brandon Jacobs likely out for this game, it would make Ward an appealing play if only we knew how healthy he actually was. In all honesty, Ward and Droughns figure to work a 60/40 split at the most with Droughns getting the short yardage work, cutting in half the value that just one of them would have against Chicago, which has surrendered at least 10.4 points to the lead RB in all but one game. Meanwhile, the Giants have had at least one back eclipse that mark every week this season. Since the Bears have permitted 11 RB scores, the better play this week may actually be Droughns.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 255 pass/2 TD/2 INT
Plaxico Burress: 70 rec/1 TD
Amani Toomer: 60 rec
Jeremy Shockey: 50 rec/1 TD
Derrick Ward: 60 rush/30 rec
Reuben Droughns: 40 rush/1 TD/15 rec

Rex Grossman/Bernard Berrian/Muhsin Muhammad/Desmond Clark/Greg Olsen
Adrian Peterson (vs. NYG)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Giants this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Giants this season: Jets
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 6.2
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 21.8/31.3/4.9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 9.3

Passing Game Thoughts: Tarvaris Jackson actually threw for a TD last week, so it’s no surprise that the Giants can be scored on through the air. Six of the last seven QBs have scored more than 14 fantasy points against them, with Jon Kitna and Tony Romo each scoring over 20. Grossman threw his first INT last week since re-claiming the starting job and has scored at least 11 points in each of those three games. To no one’s surprise, Berrian’s stock has risen once again with Rex under center, scoring 8.4 points/game since Grossman’s return. That bodes well for a Giants’ secondary that has been torched by the deep ball for most of the season. Meanwhile, Muhammad’s numbers have gone down each week with Grossman in the lineup. Clark’s long reception in OT to set up the game-winning field goal last week vs. Denver saved him from having another poor outing. Neither Clark nor Olsen has scored since Week 8 and the Giants, for all their struggles against the position early in the season, haven’t allowed a TE to score more than 7.5 points since Week 3.

Running Game Thoughts: Sometimes, I get them right and sometimes I don’t…hopefully, loyal readers took my advice on Peterson, who will carry the load for the Bears – for the most part – for the remainder of the season. Garrett Wolfe will likely cut in to Peterson’s work a bit, but the Georgia Southern standout should pick up where Cedric Benson left off carry-wise. Including this game, the remainder of his schedule is not easy, but to get a 20-carry RB for a team committed to running this late off the waiver wire is likely a godsend to some RB-weary owners out there. Chicago RBs have reached the end zone in three straight games whereas Chester Taylor’s score last week vs. New York was the first against its defense since Week 6. Peterson may get enough yards through the air to make up for not scoring though.

Projections:
Rex Grossman: 220 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Bernard Berrian: 85 rec/1 TD
Muhsin Muhammad: 50 rec
Desmond Clark: 25 rec
Greg Olsen: 20 rec
Adrian Peterson: 65 rush/25 rec

Bengals @ Steelers
Carson Palmer/Chad Johnson/TJ Houshmandzadeh/Chris Henry
Rudi Johnson or Kenny Watson (vs. PIT)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season: Bengals
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season: Bengals
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 14.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 20.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 13.9
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 13.2/10.6
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 9.8

Passing Game Thoughts: In all honesty, this is about as close to 100% as the team has been this season with all of its weapons, and that is taking into consideration that each of the three WRs listed above and Rudi Johnson are all dealing with their own injuries or just making their way back. That, along with some injuries to key Titans players, probably explains why Cincy thrashed Tennessee as badly as it did last week. They will need to be at their best against one of the league’s best defenses, who rank third in fewest points allowed to opposing QBs and second to WRs. However, if there is one QB who has fared well historically against the Steelers, it is Palmer, who has thrown for 11 TDs vs. two INTs in his last four regular-season meetings against Pittsburgh. The Steelers’ game plan against the Bengals usually focuses on eliminating Johnson and letting the other WRs beat them, so Housh and Henry are the best plays out of this passing game. Palmer, while not the greatest start this week, should have little problem – outside of some nasty weather – eclipsing his 205-yard, two-TD, no INT performance from their earlier meeting.

Running Game Thoughts: Remember how good the Steelers defense vs. QBs and WRs was? Well, they are the best vs. opposing RBs. While the Bengals will run to keep the defense honest, the game plan will be all about how to beat Pittsburgh through the air. Watson came close to a 100-yard rushing game the last time out, but until the Bengals are completely healthy across the line, there is little chance of Cincy repeating its rushing success from Week 8. And since RT Willie Anderson has missed seven straight games with a knee injury, that doesn’t figure to happen. It is befuddling to me that if Rudi is not 100% - like HC Marvin Lewis stated earlier in the week – why he would receive 25 carries to Watson’s four vs. the Titans. What is more alarming is that Rudi was unable to get 100 yards on 25 carries against an injury-riddled Titans defense. With that in mind, if you have come across some good waiver-wire additions at RB over the course of the season, feel free to use them over Rudi or Watson this week.

Projections:
Carson Palmer: 280 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Chad Johnson: 60 rec
TJ Houshmandzadeh: 100 rec/1 TD
Chris Henry: 80 rec/1 TD
Rudi Johnson: 50 rush/10 rec
Kenny Watson: 25 rush/25 rec

Ben Roethlisberger/Hines Ward/Nate Washington/Heath Miller
Willie Parker (vs. CIN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bengals this season: Steelers
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bengals this season: Steelers
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 20.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 29.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 4.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 22.2
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 14.2/20.5/4.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 10.9

Passing Game Thoughts: Previous Steelers teams would have run all day in the conditions they found themselves in on MNF. However, even though Pittsburgh is still promoting itself as a “violent” running game, the team has shown it wants to be a quick-strike offense as well. The last time these two division rivals met, it meant another two-TD performance from Roethlisberger and Ward – both of which are top-of-the-line starts this week. With Santonio Holmes out again this week, Ward could very well repeat his double-dip but assuming the weather conditions are favorable, this game should be a bit more high-scoring than the 24-13 contest from Week 8. That means Miller or, more likely Washington, should assume Holmes’ role as a big-play threat as the Ohio St. product had six catches for 87 yards in the first meeting. The TE has not appreciably hurt the Bengals as of late, and given that Cincy is trotting out two young CBs each week after demoting CB Deltha O’Neal, expect the Steelers to pick on them until they prove they are up to the challenge, all of which makes Miller an average play at best.

Running Game Thoughts: For the first time this season, I’m actually seeing some Parker owners show their disappointment in Parker’s overall numbers this season. As I mentioned a few times in this column, we just aren’t seeing the explosive runs we are used to seeing from FWP. It should be noted that Parker did score one of his two TDs this season against the Bengals and has an awfully good track record against them. Cincinnati has enjoyed better run defense as of late, but much like Denver, its success means that the defense has went from near awful to just about average.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 245 rush/2 TD/1 INT
Hines Ward: 90 rec/1 TD
Nate Washington: 80 rec/1 TD
Heath Miller: 40 rec
Willie Parker: 100 rush/1 TD/10 rec

Patriots @ Ravens
Tom Brady/Randy Moss/Wes Welker/Donte Stallworth/Ben Watson
Laurence Maroney/Kevin Faulk (vs. BAL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Ravens this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Ravens this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 19.3/18.7/9.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 14.8

Passing Game Thoughts: The Eagles didn’t so much provide a blueprint as to how to contain the New England offense as they brought a philosophy that was pretty much spilled out in this column last week, that is, to out-Patriot the Patriots. Do the best job you can in taking out option #1 and/or #2 and let someone else beat you. Hit Moss hard when he gets the ball, frustrate him to no end with physical play and don’t be afraid to attack Brady. Past Baltimore teams would do this regardless of the matchup, but without CB Chris McAlister, I’m not sure this one will. (However, he is reportedly practicing well this week.) Until his status in cleared up, the Ravens may not be able to emulate the Eagles’ success against this offense. Either way, this Patriots’ offense is a must-start across the board because of the quality at QB and the sheer volume of how many times they throw the ball, period.

Running Game Thoughts: The Ravens run defense would be the other main reason that Brady will likely throw 50 times on Monday. Baltimore is the second-toughest unit for RBs to score fantasy points against, meaning you will likely see a lot more Faulk than Maroney – so much so that I would almost start Faulk ahead of Maroney this week. It’s tough to say this about any player with this much talent, but Maroney probably needs to ride the bench this week and next (vs. Pittsburgh).

Projections:
Tom Brady: 265 pass/3 TD/1 INT
Randy Moss: 90 rec/1 TD
Donte Stallworth: 40 rec
Wes Welker: 80 rec/1 TD
Ben Watson: 20 rec/1 TD
Laurence Maroney: 45 rush
Kevin Faulk: 10 rush/40 rec

Kyle Boller/Mark Clayton/Derrick Mason
Willis McGahee (vs. NE)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Patriots this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Patriots this season: Redskins
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 9.4
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 22.6/30.6/3.9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 11.4

Passing Game Thoughts: Mason had yet another high-target, high-yardage receiving game with no scores. Until Heap returns, Mason is the only useful property from this team and that figures to be in question with CB Asante Samuel likely to guard him this week. Boller is at least moving the offense somewhat, but this passing offense doesn’t score near often enough to be using during the playoff run. A very risky but intriguing play would be whoever starts at TE between Quinn Sypniewski and Daniel Wilcox. Philly was able to get open on in-patterns and down the middle of the field. The risk – of course – comes with the knowledge that Boller will be the one pulling the trigger.

Running Game Thoughts: How healthy (and how effective) the Ravens defense is will determine if McGahee will see enough work to continue his season-long streak of scoring at least 10 points per game. The good things for the former ‘Cane are 1) he receives a fair amount of work in the passing game and 2) he is on a six-game TD-scoring streak. New England, on the other hand, is in a pattern of surrendering double-digit points to opposing RBs every other week since the beginning of the season. Because a Todd Heap-less Baltimore offense isn’t going to strike a great deal of fear into the Pats’ defense, McGahee will probably be asked to do just about everything in much the same manner Brian Westbrook was last week, even though they possess completely different styles. The point is that Philly exposed weaknesses in both the run and pass defense last week vs. New England and it is up to HC Brian Billick to make sure he has his best play-calling day in some time if he wants to stay competitive with the Pats.

Projections:
Kyle Boller: 180 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Mark Clayton: 40 rec
Derrick Mason: 65 rec
Willis McGahee: 65 rush/1 TD/35 rec