QBs: (1 pt per 25 yds passing; 6 pts for all TDs, -2 pts/INT or fumble)
RBs/WRs/TEs: (1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 6 points per TD)

Note: Teams that have a fantasy relevant TE will be included.

DEN @ HOU | CIN @ SF | ARI @ NO | ATL @ TB | BAL @ MIA | BUF @ CLE | GB @ STL | JAX @ PIT
NYJ @ NE | SEA @ CAR | TEN @ KC | IND @ OAK | DET @ SD | PHI @ DAL | WAS @ NYG | CHI @ MIN

Broncos @ Texans
Jay Cutler/Brandon Marshall/Brandon Stokley/Tony Scheffler
Travis Henry/Selvin Young (vs. HOU)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Texans this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Texans this season: Raiders
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 23.4
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 19.9/21/9.1
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 24

Passing Game Thoughts: Chances are that if you rolled with Cutler last week, you moved on to the semifinals of your league and did so by a fair margin. Suffice it to say that while it was the first four-TD game of Cutler’s career, it probably won’t be his last. There’s not much to be read into the fact that Houston kept the Bucs’ passing game out of the end zone last week, as they still allowed 266 yards passing and did not collect an INT. (Luke McCown’s 14.3-point performance was the worst against the Texans in their last eight games – they had allowed nine TD passes in the prior five games.) All this bodes very well for Cutler, who has probably worked himself into low #1 QB status for next year’s fantasy drafts – in large part because he will have Marshall to throw to for the foreseeable future. I honestly believe Marshall will be a mid-#1 fantasy WR option no later than next season. Since reports of Javon Walker’s imminent return were greatly exaggerated, Stokley remains a solid #3 WR option for his owners as well. Much like it would be unwise to believe Houston stopped Tampa Bay’s passing game, it would be unwise to believe that the Texans “held” Joey Galloway down. This is a bad secondary and one that Cutler & Co. should be able to tear up, as the fewest points any leading WR has scored over the last two months was Galloway’s 8.7. Dan Graham stole Scheffler’s thunder last week, one reason Scheffler won’t be anything more than a low-end #1 TE anytime soon, despite the fact that he has a ton of talent. However, as far as matchups go, the Texans have shown some weakness in guarding the TE, so Scheffler could be worth a play if you do not have an elite option to turn to at this point.

Running Game Thoughts: HC Mike Shanahan employed a different kind of RBBC on Sunday. Perhaps it was just the way it worked out, but instead of splitting drives between his two backs, Young seemed to start almost every drive and, after he broke a long run, it was Henry’s job to put it into the end zone. (Mind you, I’m not taking about Henry being the goal-line back; sometimes he came in at around the 30-yard-line.) Either way, for those owners who are still playing despite the mystery surrounding the Broncos backfield, it is Young who should be seeing the playing time in your backfield and not Henry, although both could be pretty good plays this weekend vs. a Texans defense that has permitted five RB TDs in the last three weeks alone. While teacher (Shanahan) does not have any ill will towards the pupil (Houston HC Gary Kubiak), expect Denver to be merciless in their execution of the run game this week.

Projections:
Jay Cutler: 270 pass/3 TD/1 INT
Brandon Marshall: 95 rec/1 TD
Brandon Stokley: 80 rec/1 TD
Tony Scheffler: 45 rec
Travis Henry: 30 rush/1 TD
Selvin Young: 100 rush/35 rec

Sage Rosenfels/Andre Johnson/Kevin Walter/Owen Daniels
Adimchinobe Echemandu/Darius Walker (vs. DEN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Broncos this season: Packers
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Broncos this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 23.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 39.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 3.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.3/13.2/10.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 16.9

Passing Game Thoughts: It is funny how irony can play out sometimes. If Rosenfels continues to produce for the rest of the season, a team that didn’t feel like it had one good QB going into the season may very well have two, meaning a Rosenfels trade could be forthcoming in the near future. For now, the Broncos still have questions to answer on defense and even though a blowout victory is a positive step, this secondary is just a 1 ½ weeks removed from three-TD performance from Josh McCown. Given the RB situation and the injuries in Denver’s secondary, expect a repeat of last week’s 36 pass attempts in this contest. As it did last week, this makes everyone listed above from the passing game a good play, with Johnson a good bet to give Greg Jennings’ 20.1-point performance against the Broncos a run for its money – the most fantasy points an opposing WR had vs. Denver this season. Walter saw just three fewer targets (than Johnson did) against Tampa Bay and is a sneaky good play as well vs. what is incredibly fantasy’s seventh-toughest defense for opposing WRs to score against this season. Daniels is a top-notch play this week against fantasy’s second-weakest defense vs. the TE. He has scored in two of the last three games and faces a Broncos defense that has surrendered eight TE scores this season.

Running Game Thoughts: It takes guts to play the bigger money leagues in fantasy football. You can be meticulous in your planning, study matchup-by-matchup each week and then have your season boil down to the decision of playing Echemandu over Aaron Stecker. Denver absolutely shut down Kansas City’s rushing attack a week ago. To be fair, the Chiefs were missing their two starting tackles, lost Tony Gonzalez at points throughout the game and even Kolby Smith got nicked up early on. As we all know, neither team should be surprised by what they see in the run game as Kubiak and Shanahan are cut from a similar cloth – personnel aside. Walker – by far – received the bulk of the work in Week 14 and all indications are that if is able to get it going early this week, he’ll be left in the game. Obviously, unpredictability is not one thing owners want during playoff time from their #2 RB position, so it would be wise to leave Echemandu and Walker on your bench despite a matchup vs. a run defense that has been pretty porous on the road. However, if I had to play one Texans RB, it would be Walker.

Projections:
Sage Rosenfels: 275 pass/3 TD/1 INT
Andre Johnson: 110 rec/1 TD
Kevin Walter: 55 rec/1 TD
Owen Daniels: 60 rec/1 TD
Darius Walker: 50 rush/15 rec
Adimchinobe Echemandu: 25 rush/10 rec

Bengals @ Niners
Carson Palmer/Chad Johnson/TJ Houshmandzadeh/Chris Henry
Rudi Johnson or Kenny Watson (vs. SF)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Niners this season: Cardinals (2)
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Niners this season: Cardinals (2)
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 24.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 31.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 19.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 22/25.6
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 22.3

Passing Game Thoughts: Let’s face it…Palmer has been far from elite outside of one week this year. The first half of the season was explainable due to some important losses up front (LT Levi Jones, RT Willie Anderson) and the Henry suspension. Then, Henry returned and the numbers instantly spiked. However, he has a bit of a lull in the last two weeks – both in bad weather. With the game being in San Francisco this week, there is less of a chance that Palmer will be, well, average. And, as luck would have it, the Niners have been alternated two TD passes with one score over the last six weeks (and it is time for two again). More concrete though is that any trustworthy fantasy QB (Brees, Hasselbeck and Warner) have scored 23.5 points or more since the Niners’ Week 6 bye. That seems to jive pretty well with the production that opposing WRs are getting this season vs. San Fran. Just about any WR that can go deep effectively has been able to do so lately, which obviously bodes well for Johnson and Henry. However, it makes perfect sense that Cincy will pick on CB Walt Harris – who has struggled this season after a solid 2006 and will be guarding Houshmandzadeh – as opposed to CB Nate Clements. However, Clements is aggressive and apt to be burnt on a double move, something Chad Johnson can do very well. Continue to play your Bengals as you normally would with Johnson and Housh – in that order – solid low-end #1s. Henry should be a solid #3 option, if not #2.

Running Game Thoughts: While it is interesting that Cincy has been productive running the ball since Rudi’s return, it is more intriguing that: 1) it is being done without Anderson in the lineup, and 2) the wealth has been spread out among two, sometimes even three, RBs. Rudi isn’t going to be “the man” again until next season, but he probably is as healthy as he has been since Week 2 this season. His chances of success are very high this week, as San Francisco has allowed at least 8.9 points to each opponent’s lead RB this season. And be assured there will be no repeat of the Niners’ shutdown performance vs. the Vikes’ Adrian Peterson. Minnesota faced stacked defenses every time AD was in the backfield and has very little in the way of receiving threats – Cincy has three. If they try that with the Bengals, would mean that one – if not all – of the Bengals’ stud WRs will be single-covered and that isn’t something the Niners would dare try.

Projections:
Carson Palmer: 275 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Chad Johnson: 70 rec/1 TD
TJ Houshmandzadeh: 60 rec
Chris Henry: 80 rec/1 TD
Rudi Johnson: 85 rush/1 TD/10 rec
Kenny Watson: 20 rush/20 rec

Shaun Hill/Arnaz Battle/Ashley Lelie/Vernon Davis
Frank Gore (vs. CIN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bengals this season: Ravens (2)
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bengals this season: Ravens (2)
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 11.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 14.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 3.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 18.2
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 14.5/17/4.2
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 10.4

Passing Game Thoughts: Especially if Hill is under center, there is very little reason to use any player from this passing game outside of Davis. He was efficient (22-of-28) and threw for a TD in relief, but he will struggle to match his 13.3-point effort from last week against a Bengals defense that has played better of late. Davis or Delanie Walker will likely lead the team in receiving yards again and Battle is the best bet for a score, but you are really picking at the bottom of the barrel if you need to be counting on offense from this passing game.

Running Game Thoughts: The Bengals continued their run-stopping prowess last week vs. St. Louis outside of one 50-yard-plus run. In three of the last five games, Cincy has “held” likely first-round fantasy RB picks for 2008 to 13 points or less (McGahee, Parker, Jackson). Even though this season has turned into a horrible showing for the offense, the Niners have righted the ship after bringing on Ted Tollner to help with the offensive gameplan. Gore has touched the ball more than 20 times in three of the last four games after failing to do so more than once in the season’s first 10 weeks. The Bengals’ offense doesn’t figure to go on a scoring spree, but chances are good they will score more than the 19 points they totaled in some poor conditions last week vs. the Rams. Nevertheless, given Gore’s newfound involvement in both the running and passing game and his overall production – over 100 total yards in each of the last three weeks – he should, at the very least, perform at a #2 RB level this week.

Projections:
Shaun Hill: 200 pass/1 TD/2 INT/10 rush
Arnaz Battle: 45 rec
Darrell Jackson: 40 rec
Vernon Davis: 60 rec/1 TD
Frank Gore: 90 rush/1 TD/40 rec

Cardinals @ Saints
Kurt Warner/Larry Fitzgerald/Bryant Johnson
Edgerrin James (vs. NO)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Saints this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Saints this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 19.6/21.3
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 13.6

Passing Game Thoughts: Just about every week over the last few, there has been a designated “shootout” game. This should be that game – or at least one of them – in Week 15. With the exception of the Week 12 game vs. Carolina, the Saints have allowed two passing TDs – and at least 23 points to the QB position in a game in five of the last six contests. Chris Redman just got done throwing for nearly 300 yards and two scores last week. Suffice to say that it is no coincidence the Saints have surrendered 22 TD passes on the season. So long as Fitzgerald and/or Anquan Boldin are ready to go this weekend, that ineptitude vs. the pass should continue. That makes Warner a top five QB play this week. Atlanta became the fourth team to put two WRs into double digits in the same game this season in Week 14 and given the rate at which Arizona is throwing lately, the Cardinals should increase that total.

Running Game Thoughts: We have to start assuming things aren’t going to turn around for James this season. Atlanta could present a tasty matchup in Week 16, but the Saints do not. I’m not suggesting that Edge owners bench him, just don’t expect anything significant against what has become fantasy’s fourth-stingiest defense vs. RBs. New Orleans has surrendered just six RB scores all season long and just two in the last five weeks. Granted, some of this “effectiveness” vs. the run can be attributed to their woeful pass defense, but nevertheless, James isn’t an explosive runner and, outside of a short-yardage score, does not figure to score in this game either. James has been good for at least seven points in all but one game so far this season, so he will – at the very least – not lay a goose egg for his owners.

Projections:
Kurt Warner: 280 pass/3 TD/1 INT
Larry Fitzgerald: 120 rec/2 TD
Bryant Johnson: 60 rec
Edgerrin James: 70 rush/15 rec

Drew Brees/Marques Colston/Devery Henderson/David Patten/Eric Johnson
Aaron Stecker (vs. ARI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cardinals this season: Seahawks (2)
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Cardinals this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 24.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 32.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 3.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 25.3/25.6/7.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 23.6

Passing Game Thoughts: With the Cardinals up next, owners who plan on playing Brees, Colston and Patten should fare very well. Arizona is in the middle of the pack in terms of holding down opposing RBs but, with CB Eric Green and S Adrian Wilson out, only figure to get torched as often as they did last week when Matt Hasselbeck threw for four scores. There is very little reason why Brees can’t match it and register his third 30-point game in four games. (In other words, he’s a great QB to have if you are facing Tom Brady this week.) Colston has been simply unbelievable in the second half of the season and there is no question he is one of the top plays this week. (For instance, Braylon Edwards scored 20.9 points against Arizona two weeks ago.) Henderson is a lot hit-or-miss, but if you are incredibly desperate and love to play a good matchup, you could do worse than him. Patten though, to me, is the wild card here. It seemed to me he basically received the touches in the passing game that Bush usually would and there is no reason – especially with Bush lost for the regular season – why that won’t continue in the season’s final weeks. The numbers say to play Johnson, but given that he was merely a safety blanket on a handful of occasions last week doesn’t speak well about his chances for fantasy success this week. The Cardinals will play man coverage almost exclusively and, with the soft matchups the WRs have, Johnson shouldn’t need to be called upon all that often.

Running Game Thoughts: Much to my surprise, Stecker received the lion’s share of the carries on MNF vs. the Falcons. Don’t be fooled though, New Orleans is all about the pass and will have no reason to deviate from that in this contest. This game has all the makings of an AFL-type shootout – as both pass defenses are bad – so expect very little from Stecker in terms of fantasy prowess this week.

Projections:
Drew Brees: 320 pass/4 TD/0 INT
Marques Colston: 100 rec/2 TD
David Patten: 85 rec/1 TD
Devery Henderson: 40 rec
Eric Johnson: 40 rec
Aaron Stecker: 55 rush/25 rec
Pierre Thomas: 25 rush

Falcons @ Bucs
Chris Redman/RoddyWhite/Michael Jenkins/Alge Crumpler
Warrick Dunn/Jerious Norwood (vs. TB)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bucs this season: Falcons
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bucs this season: Falcons
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 16.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 21.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 2.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 11.1
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 19.8/21.7/8.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 14.7

Passing Game Thoughts: As easy as the numbers seemed to come last week, they will be that tough to come by next week. This is a team that is playing out the string so they can decide what they could do in free agency and, ultimately, the draft. Then, on Tuesday, HC Bobby Petrino decided to prove my point. It’s nearly impossible to figure out what direction this offense will take for the rest of the season, but a dramatic departure from Petrino’s philosophy should not be expected. That isn’t going to make much of a difference this week, however, even though the Bucs have been burned for five passing scores vs. no INTs over the last two weeks. The Saints and Texans are much more stable and have much better passing games than do the Falcons. The Bucs are the second-toughest defense for opposing QBs, WRs and TEs to score fantasy points against. Tampa Bay did a fine job limiting every Falcons’ passing game member outside of Michael Jenkins in the Week 11 meeting and I would expect similar results this time. White’s game is not complete enough to dominate the short and intermediate game like Andre Johnson and Marques Colston have in the past two weeks, so he will be limited. Crumpler was also kept in check, so if you can avoid starting Atlanta players this week, you should.

Running Game Thoughts: The “Tampa 2” defense has natural weaknesses: down the middle of the field, in the flats and against any running team that can effectively run on the defense’s front seven. Given its success vs. the TE (mentioned above), the Falcons can really hope to get the ball out on the perimeter because outside of White, the team lacks any kind of explosive playmakers in the passing game, and the run blocking is below-average at best. Atlanta is just a team in shambles, particularly on the offensive line. While Tampa Bay is only in the middle of the pack vs. opposing RBs, the Falcons’ back rushed for only 49 yards on 19 carries in the first meeting. All told, Norwood may be worth a play next week vs. Arizona, but it would be very tough to play him with any kind of confidence this week.

Projections:
Chris Redman: 185 pass/1 TD/2 INT
Michael Jenkins: 60 rec
Roddy White: 40 rec
Alge Crumpler: 30 rec
Warrick Dunn: 40 rush/15 rec
Jerious Norwood: 50 rush/20 rec

Jeff Garcia/Joey Galloway/Ike Hilliard
Earnest Graham (vs. ATL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Falcons this season: Bucs
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Falcons this season: Bucs
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 16.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 13.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 23.7
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 27.1/33.1/ N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 19.1

Passing Game Thoughts: HC Jon Gruden should really be able to pick his poison against the Falcons. Ultimately, I expect him to call the same type of game – efficient, yet explosive when it needs to be – as he did in Week 11 against Atlanta. Garcia only attempted 20 passes in that contest, but two of them were good for TDs. The Falcons have surrendered three passing scores in each of the past three weeks, but in terms of trends vs. precedent, I usually opt for precedent. In that same vein, Galloway caught just two passes in their previous meeting, but one of them was good for a score. He should be in line for low-end #1 WR-type numbers again this week as Atlanta has surrendered at least 12.3 points to a WR in each of its three games since Week 11.

Running Game Thoughts: Much like Jamal Lewis, Graham has benefited from a renewed sense of purpose and (maybe just as importantly) an overwhelmingly easy schedule. Suffice it to say, this game qualifies. Graham put together a workmanlike 102-yard rushing performance on 17 carries in Week 11 with a TD against a Falcons team that has checked out mentally and emotionally, so he should be able to at least repeat those numbers. Atlanta just allowed Aaron Stecker to rush for 100 yards and has surrendered at least 10.7 points to the position in all but one of the team’s last eight contests.

Projections:
Jeff Garcia: 210 pass/2 TD/0 INT/20 rush
Joey Galloway: 80 rec/1 TD
Ike Hilliard: 60 rec
Earnest Graham: 115 rush/1 TD/25 rec

Ravens @ Dolphins
Kyle Boller/Mark Clayton/Derrick Mason
Willis McGahee (vs. MIA)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Dolphins this season: Bills (2)
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Dolphins this season: Bills (2)
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 16.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 16.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 18.7
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.7/18.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 24.3

Passing Game Thoughts: The drill continues. Perhaps this is the week that Boller pulls his Trend Edwards impression and is the most unlikely four-TD QB of the week. More likely, however, is that the Ravens stick to their bread-and-butter and absolutely challenge the manhood of the Dolphins (that would be running the ball as well as being relentless on the blitz on defense). Mason continues to be the lone consideration from this passing game for fantasy purposes, although whoever plays at TE this week has to love the fact that Buffalo’s Robert Royal scored twice last week. That said, Mason is just about the only player from this passing game that has done anything of note in some time, so expect low-end #2 WR numbers from him and sit the rest of the group.

Running Game Thoughts: McGahee owners (I wish I was one this week) have to be absolutely smitten with his matchup this week. He had his first substandard performance of the season last week vs. the Colts, especially after he injured his toe early on in a blowout. Miami’s run defense, on the other hand, has gone from a bit below average early in the season to flat-out horrible. In the last two weeks, two teams not exactly known for their proficiency in running the ball (Jets, Bills), have put two backs each into double figures. The trend may continue this week as well if Baltimore can turn this game into enough of a laugher early on. While it would take more guts than I have to do it, Musa Smith becomes an option for desperate owners. More likely though, McGahee follows his first scoreless game in eight games last week with his first two-score game of the season this week.

Projections:
Kyle Boller: 210 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Derrick Mason: 80 rec/1 TD
Mark Clayton: 50 rec
Willis McGahee: 100 rush/2 TD/25 rec

Cleo Lemon/Marty Booker/Ted Ginn, Jr.
Jesse Chatman (vs. BAL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Ravens this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Ravens this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 25.5/25.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 21.2

Passing Game Thoughts: There is absolutely nothing to see (or use) here. Even if you are considering if one of these players may be useful against a Ravens defense without CBs Samari Rolle and Chris McAlister, don’t do it. The last useful fantasy performance from a Miami QB was Week 7, while Derek Hagan’s 9.3 points were the most by a ‘Phins’ WR since Week 3.

Running Game Thoughts: I’m going to save everyone some time here. Yes, Baltimore allowed 26.1 points to Joseph Addai, but let’s face facts – it wasn’t the run defenses’ fault, as hard as that may be to believe. The Ravens have one of the premier run-stopping units, meaning the Dolphins could line up Chatman, Gado or Mercury Morris and it wouldn’t matter. Avoid this backfield the next two weeks (Pats in Week 16).

Projections:
Cleo Lemon: 200 pass/1 TD/2 INT/30 rush
Ted Ginn, Jr.: 60 rec
Derek Hagan: 40 rec
Jesse Chatman: 55 rush/25 rec

Bills @ Browns
Trent Edwards/Lee Evans/Roscoe Parrish
Marshawn Lynch//Fred Jackson (vs. CLE)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Browns this season: Jets
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Browns this season: Ravens (2)
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 21.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 19.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 17.8
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 19.7/20.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 13

Passing Game Thoughts: Cleveland is still the worst defense in the league in terms of allowing fantasy points to opposing QBs and second worst vs. WRs. It should be noted that the Browns have shown some modest improvement lately though, not allowing more than 21.5 points in the last four games after surrendering at least that many in six of their first nine contests. Most people will acknowledge that while Edwards threw for four TDs last week vs. Miami, it hardly qualifies as any less than what an opponent should do against the Dolphins. While it is rare not to recommend a QB coming off such a sparkling stat line, the matchup – and possibly the weather this weekend – suggests that the Bills should run as much as possible. So outside of two-QB leagues, I would not start him. Evans took advantage of his matchup last week, suggesting to some that he may be building a rapport with Edwards. However, in the last two games in fairly exploitable matchups, Evans has been targeted 12 times in Edwards’ 59 pass attempts. Because the Browns struggle so much with guarding the split end (usually where I see Evans), he deserves a play as a #3 WR, but I’m hardly ever confident I will get what I expect from Evans.

Running Game Thoughts: The Browns’ remarkable stretch of overcoming run-stopping ineptitude continues. Not many teams can boast they are 5-5 in games in which they have allowed a 100-yard rusher like Cleveland can. Last week, Buffalo put both Lynch and Jackson over that mark. With a track record of stopping the run like the Browns have, one should figure that Lynch – if healthy, which he should be as he was able to handle 23 carries last week – is the best bet for that honor. However, as Jackson’s 15 carries in Week 14 will attest, he will also have a prominent role as well. So, a matchup that appeared to be fantasy gold for Lynch at the beginning of the season has been downgraded just a bit. Miraculously though, Cleveland has surrendered just four RB scores all season however – and while teams are choosing to score via the passing game – it merits mention that Lynch/Jackson owners should not count on more than a lot of yards this weekend.

Projections:
Trent Edwards: 185 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Lee Evans: 65 rec/1 TD
Roscoe Parrish: 40 rec
Marshawn Lynch: 90 rush/1 TD/20 rec
Fred Jackson: 60 rush/15 rec

Derek Anderson/Braylon Edwards/Joe Jurevicius/Kellen Winslow
Jamal Lewis (vs. BUF)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bills this season: Cowboys
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bills this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 24.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 18
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 16.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 14.9/17.3/5.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 22

Passing Game Thoughts: Anderson has been a model of excellence and consistency this season. He has thrown two or more TD in all but three games since he became the starter. And in two of the three games he didn’t throw for at least that many scores, he had a rushing TD. All this is just further reason to be very optimistic about Anderson the rest of the way. The Bills’ numbers vs. opposing QBs have gotten better since Tom Brady lit them up in Week 11, but that has as much to do with the competition and their gameplans as Buffalo’s ability to keep teams from scoring. This matchup should bring tears of joy to Edwards’ owners as the only other WR with his game-breaking ability that has appeared on the Bills’ schedule (Randy Moss) had 243 yards and six TD catches in just two games against them this season. Jurevicius continues to bring minimal contributions to the table, leaving Winslow as a key potential contributor in this game after two down weeks. Buffalo has faced three fantasy-relevant TEs this season (Jason Witten, Ben Watson (2) and Chris Cooley) and given up big games to them all.

Running Game Thoughts: Lewis is certainly showing his potential offseason suitors that he has plenty of tread left on his tires, but many teams will still be reluctant to sign him to anything beyond a two-year contract as he will turn 29 before the 2008 season begins. But for the here and now, Lewis’ heaven-sent schedule continues against a Bills’ defense that just allowed Samkon Gado to rush for two scores. Buffalo has surrendered two RB scores in three of the last four games. Lewis, on the other hand, has scored in four straight contest and has nine TDs in his last six games. Additionally, he has rushed for over 100 yards in two of his last three contests. The Bills have surrendered double-digit points to all but one lead RB this season and Lewis doesn’t figure to be the second victim.

Projections:
Derek Anderson: 280 pass/3 TD/1 INT
Braylon Edwards: 110 rec/2 TD
Joe Jurevicius: 50 rec
Kellen Winslow: 70 rec/1 TD
Jamal Lewis: 100 rush/1 TD/25 rec

Packers @ Rams
Brett Favre/Donald Driver/Greg Jennings/James Jones/Donald Lee
Ryan Grant (vs. STL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Rams this season: Cowboys
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Rams this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 37.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 34.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 14.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 17.2/25.9/3.1
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 20.1

Passing Game Thoughts: OK, we know you won’t sit Favre, who has multi-TD efforts in all but four games this season with just one since the team’s Week 7 bye. Meanwhile, the Rams have allowed two or more QB scores in seven games this season. Deep threats have toasted the Rams throughout the season, so Jennings is in line for another #1 WR-type day. Predicting Driver to score has become has almost become ludicrous (scoreless since Week 3), although the matchup is in his favor – St. Louis allows the 10th-most points to opposing WRs. What is silly is that Driver will likely approach last season’s numbers in catches and yards, but finish with his lowest TD total since 2003. And Lee is another solid play as well; the Rams have surrendered six TE scores and generally been beaten up by opponents who like to involve the TE into the offense. He’s probably not going to have a stellar day, but he should certainly be useful for his owners.

Running Game Thoughts: Rarely has any RB become an automatic start so quickly, but when a back goes for 19 fantasy points in three out of four games (with two of those three coming against the Vikings and the Cowboys), it means that he starts regardless of the matchup. The Rams, on the other hand, are continuing their streak of not giving up a 100-yard rusher, but once again, an opponent just missed out. In the last two weeks, Jerious Norwood and Rudi Johnson both finished with over 90 yards and given that the Packers should have a two-score lead early on at some point in the second half, Grant will be given every opportunity to snap St. Louis’ streak. To be fair, the Bengals’ RBs rushed for 187 yards on 32 carries, so this matchup should be a no-brainer for Grant owners.

Projections:
Brett Favre: 325 pass/3 TD/1 INT
Donald Driver: 75 rec/1 TD
Greg Jennings: 90 rec/1 TD
James Jones: 50 rec
Donald Lee: 40 rec/1 TD
Ryan Grant: 110 rush/1 TD/20 rec

Marc Bulger/Torry Holt/Isaac Bruce/Drew Bennett/Randy McMichael
Steven Jackson (vs. GB)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Packers this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Packers this season: Chiefs
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 23.1
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 19.8/25.2/5.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 16.4

Passing Game Thoughts: Considering the press it receives, the fact that the Green Bay defense has allowed 20 passing scores this season is astounding. Surprisingly, the Packers have allowed a QB to score at least 14.1 points in all but two games this season. However, Bulger does not appear to be in a great position to take advantage of this. Despite throwing for over 300 yards three times this season, he has registered just one multi-TD performance and will be coming back from a concussion. The recent lack of Packers’ success in stopping the pass effectively has obviously transferred over to the WR position, where four WRs have scored more than 10.5 points over the last four games after the team had surrendered just three double-digit performances in the season’s first 10 weeks. Holt continues to be the best weekly play from this passing game, but it would be mildly surprising if any WR had a field day against Green Bay this week considering that the best thing going for the Rams offense right now is the running game. After some initial struggles guarding the opponent’s TE, Green Bay has not permitted less than one point to the position in three of its last five games. Given that McMichael isn’t getting a ton of work in the passing game this season, he qualifies as a poor play this week.

Running Game Thoughts: While Jackson isn’t scoring near as much as we would like him to, it has to a nice sight for his owners that he has scored at least 11 points in every game since his return from a torn groin muscle in Week 8. With the Rams likely to be conservative, at least in the early going and Bulger returning from a one-week absence, it bodes well for Jackson’s owners for their back to get a lot of touches. And given the CB-WR matchup (and factoring in the QB situation), it’s quite likely Jackson could be a monster in PPR leagues this week as well, as he should see 20 carries and may be in line for 8-10 receptions. Green Bay is allowing 16.3 points to the RB position – 11th best in the league – but they haven’t faced a bull like this in the backfield since they went up against the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson in Week 10.

Projections:
Marc Bulger: 240 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Torry Holt: 75 rec/1 TD
Isaac Bruce: 50 rec
Drew Bennett: 40 rec
Randy McMichael: 25 rec
Steven Jackson: 90 rush/1 TD/40 rec

Jaguars @ Steelers
David Garrard/Dennis Northcutt/Reggie Williams
Fred Taylor/Maurice Jones-Drew (vs. PIT)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 17.6/28.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 6.9

Passing Game Thoughts: Aside from his three-plus game hiatus due to injury, Garrard has been an absolutely rock-solid fantasy QB this season. Outside of the Indianapolis game that he was hurt in, Garrard has scored no fewer than 15.8 points in any of his starts. On the other hand, the Steelers have allowed that point total or less in just four games this season. What has to be a bit troubling for the Steelers’ defense is that while their 2,464 passing yards allowed is third-best in the league, their eight interceptions are the second-worst total in the NFL. Given Garrard’s nature of not turning the ball over, it figures to be another low-yardage, no-turnover day for him. He’s a solid play, but certainly not an elite one this week. Williams has seen the most targets in each of the last two weeks and has done something with them, compiling 159 yards and a score vs. Carolina and Indy. The problem with Williams – now in his fourth season – has never been ability, but rather consistently producing for both his team and his fantasy owners. Perhaps a good performance against the Steelers (and throughout this season’s fantasy playoffs) will change my mind, but I would hesitate counting on any kind of production from him when a few points can be the difference between winning a fantasy title or being upset in the semifinals of your league. Northcutt has really tailed off after a strong start and is a desperation play at best. Northcutt’s best yardage output since Week 5 is 65 yards and he hasn’t seen more than six targets since Week 7. So, Garrard should play; his receivers should not, unless you like Williams’ chances of “consistency” more than I do.

Running Game Thoughts: Very few RBs make for a good play against the Steelers’ defense – that should be pretty well-known at this point. Pittsburgh has yet to allow a 1,000 total yards to the RB position and has permitted just six RB scores this season – including just one RB TD in the last four games. Jacksonville has diversified their offensive attack this season to the point, however, where they can still win without a huge ground-game contribution. Considering only one RB has rushed for over 100 yards against the Steelers (and that he is only one of two backs to rush for 80 yards), the chances are not great for either Taylor – he of the three straight 100-yard games - or MJD to stand out.

Projections:
David Garrard: 180 pass/1 TD/0 INT/15 rush
Dennis Northcutt: 45 rec
Reggie Williams: 50 rec
Fred Taylor: 75 rush/20 rec
Maurice Jones-Drew: 30 rush/25 rec

Ben Roethlisberger/Hines Ward/Santonio Holmes/Heath Miller
Willie Parker (vs. JAX)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Jaguars this season: Broncos
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Jaguars this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 15
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 17.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 6.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.9/13.8/9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 13.3

Passing Game Thoughts: Just as Big Ben was building momentum towards becoming an elite fantasy QB, he has regressed in the second half of the season. There are probably more reasons for this than I can list here, but a bad weather game vs. Miami in Week 12 and uneven road performances by his team against the Jets in Week 11 and the Patriots last week haven’t helped matters. It is interesting to note that his fantasy numbers are actually better on the road (21.7) than they are at home (20.2). (Bear in mind though, that New England was actually the first legitimate defense he faced away from home this season.) In this matchup, he faces a Jags’ defense that had surrendered 21.1 points or more to the QB position in six of their last seven games before last week’s dominating effort over the Panthers. Most of the damage that opposing WRs have created vs. Jacksonville has come from the split end, which in this matchup figures to be Holmes more often than not, if healthy. (Reggie Wayne, Joey Galloway and Marques Colston are among some of the WRs who have burned CB Brian Williams this season.) Since the Steelers aren’t married to leaving Ward just on the right side of the formation, it is reasonable to assume that he would carry more value this week than a less-than-healthy Holmes, who is still nursing an ankle injury and saw less playing time than reserve wideouts Nate Washington and Cedrick Wilson last week. Miller has really tailed off in recent weeks, but has a strong matchup against fantasy’s fourth-friendliest defense vs. opposing TEs. In what should be a ball-control game, he could have a strong bounce-back performance.

Running Game Thoughts: Parker’s fantasy owners probably have very few qualms about the amount of work and yardage their RB is collecting. What is disturbing is that he has seemingly gone from “Fast Willie Parker” to “Powerful Willie Parker”. To me, it looks like he has gained some weight to deal with the extra work and has lost his explosion. He is still plenty quick, just nowhere near as explosive. Fortunately, the Jags defense he faces this week is not the beast it has been in years past, although it is still plenty good, allowing just one 100-yard rusher this season. Four of the 10 RB scores surrendered by Jacksonville have been receiving, which presents an issue for Parker owners who are hoping he can score for the first time since Week 8 since Fast Willie has just 21 catches this season. Despite both teams’ wishes to beat their opponent physically, this game will likely be won through the air – weather permitting. Parker will get his carries and yards – and no owner in their right mind will bench the league’s leading rusher – but be prepared for another “average” performance from Parker this week against fantasy’s ninth-toughest defense for RBs to score against this season.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 280 rush/3 TD/1 INT
Hines Ward: 110 rec/1 TD
Santonio Holmes: 80 rec/1 TD
Heath Miller: 50 rec/1 TD
Willie Parker: 115 rush/1 TD/25 rec

Jets @ Patriots
Kellen Clemens/Laveranues Coles/Jerricho Cotchery
Thomas Jones (vs. NE)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Patriots this season: Jets
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Patriots this season: Jets
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 16.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 24.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 9.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 21.4/25.2
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 22.7

Passing Game Thoughts: The predictable unpredictability of the Northeast in the winter throws the status of this matchup into some doubt – for both teams. And it may best for the game of football if New England is asked to “balance” their offense against the Jets to save them from what figures to be a riled-up bunch of Patriots. That being said, Clemens has shown that he can be a capable QB since his promotion in Week 9, scoring 17.2 points or more in three of his five starts with the two “duds” coming against Pittsburgh and Dallas. New England has certainly shown chinks in their armor – giving up at least 15.8 points in each of the past five weeks to the QB position – but whether an injured group of Jets WRs can take advantage is another story. And unlike some other division rivalries in which one team sees another one twice, the Week 1 matchup between these teams doesn’t mean a whole lot as both teams have changed so drastically. As far as trends are concerned, Cotchery did well last season vs. the Pats while Coles had two scores in the first get-together this season. In short, if the weather is poor, it may be advisable to sit all members of this passing game. If the winds are manageable and the weather is somewhat fair, both are strong plays in PPR leagues, but it is nearly impossible to predict that either WR will score since neither of them have crossed the stripe since Chad Pennington was still under center in Week 8, making them #3 WR plays at best in non-PPR leagues.

Running Game Thoughts: The best thing the Jets could hope for this weekend is the weather that is predicted for the New York area. Blizzard-like conditions are just what the doctor ordered for a team that would like to play this game as close to the vest as possible. New England has shown in the past weeks they can be run against and with a winter blast sweeping through, New York should have every opportunity to ride Jones all day. The Pats are in the middle of the pack fantasy-wise in allowing points to opposing RBs and have been gouged by Willis McGahee and Willie Parker in the last two weeks. That being said, any person watching the lack of scoring proficiency in the Jets’ rushing attack this season will know not to predict any TDs from Jones or Leon Washington – and besides, New England has permitted just eight RB scores all season. Jones should get some yards, but is certainly worthy of a bench spot if a better matchup is currently on your bench.

Projections:
Kellen Clemens: 180 pass/1 TD/2 INT/20 rush
Laveranues Coles: 50 rec
Jerricho Cotchery: 70 rec/1 TD
Thomas Jones: 80 rush/20 rec

Tom Brady/Randy Moss/Wes Welker/Donte Stallworth/Jabar Gaffney/Ben Watson
Laurence Maroney (vs. NYJ)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Jets this season: Patriots
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Jets this season: Patriots
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 27.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 38.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 6.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 21.1
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 15.1/12.7/6.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 22.7

Passing Game Thoughts: Everybody goes – even Gaffney – for the next two weeks, no questions asked. Gaffney got the start over Stallworth last week and has scored in three straight contests. CB Darrelle Revis should get his shots at Moss all day and limit him somewhat, but not enough to knock him off his #1 WR pedestal. There is absolutely no reason that Brady can’t tie Peyton Manning’s TD record this week, but the Jets are not quite the pushovers against the pass that many seem to think they are – its against the run that they stink. (The owners I feel sorry for are the ones that have to compete vs. Brady next week. It will also be interesting to see exactly how the motivation of “Spygate” plays out here, whether that means that after getting up early, the Patriots run all second half to make New York physically pay for their “transgressions” or continue passing in their zest to break every kind of offensive record known to man and try to embarrass the Jets.) Of course Brady and Moss play – but in order after that – I would go Welker, Gaffney, Watson and Stallworth. For what its worth, the Jets “held” Tony Romo and Derek Anderson to two TDs apiece while the running games for the Cowboys and Browns absolutely steamrolled New York. Something like that could take place again.

Running Game Thoughts: The Pats have not attempted 20 rushes in a game in their four contests. Granted, the opportunity and the matchups have been more conducive to passing lately, but New England’s obvious strength is the passing game and outside of multiple Heath Evans’ short-yardage scores, isn’t likely to produce much in the way of big fantasy numbers from the “expected sources” like Maroney. Severe weather (i.e. high winds, massive amounts of snow) would change that, but the Patriots will still get the majority of their points and yards through the passing game assuming the ball can actually be thrown with any degree of accuracy in the conditions this weekend.

Projections: (all projections here are weather permitting; severe weather would upgrade the ground game and cut most of the passing and receiving numbers in half)
Tom Brady: 320 pass/4 TD/0 INT
Randy Moss: 115 rec/1 TD
Wes Welker: 75 rec/1 TD
Jabar Gaffey: 45 rec/1 TD
Donte Stallworth: 25 rec
Ben Watson: 25 rec/1 TD
Laurence Maroney: 75 rush/20 rec

Seahawks @ Panthers
Matt Hasselbeck/Deion Branch/Bobby Engram/Nate Burleson
Shaun Alexander/Maurice Morris (vs. CAR)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Panthers this season: Saints (2)
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Panthers this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 22.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 22.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 23.5/23.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 16.6

Passing Game Thoughts: Hasselbeck has been up to the task since HC Mike Holmgren rightfully put less emphasis on the running game and turned the game over to his strong passing game. While Carolina ranks right in the middle of the pack in terms of allowing fantasy points to QBs and WRs, the last five weeks have not been kind to them as they have surrendered 12 QB scores – including two or more in each of the last four games. (They have allowed at least 16.5 points to the QB position in each of the last four weeks.) Combine that with Hasselbeck coming off his first four-TD game of the season and you have the recipe for a pretty good point total from the Seahawks’ field general. In terms of overall consistency lately, Engram probably makes for a slightly better play than Branch as he is Hasselbeck’s most trusted WR, but I would not have a problem starting any Seattle WR mentioned above this week if I had to. Branch and Engram are solid #2 candidates while Burleson is a middle-of-the-pack #3. Much as the Panthers have struggled vs. QBs lately, they have been scorched by a pair of average receivers at best over the last couple weeks, as Arnaz Battle scored 11.1 and Reggie Williams tallied 15 points. Since Hasselbeck figures to be just as efficient as David Garrard was in Week 14 with 36 attempts, there is absolutely no reason why Engram, Branch and Burleson all can’t find the end zone this week, just as they did last week.

Running Game Thoughts: Carolina ranks right in the middle of the pack in allowing fantasy points to RBs while Seattle is 21st in RB points scored. While this game projects as a fair matchup for the Seahawks, we also have a pretty fair understanding by now that Morris will see some – if not half – of the work and it is really anyone’s guess as to which back will outperform the other. It probably then goes without saying that neither RB is an overly great #2 RB play this week. The last individual 100-yard game produced by Seattle was in Week 3. So while the Panthers can be had – 10 RB scores and at least 11.1 points to one RB in five of the last seven games – it is probably best to leave both on the bench this week. If I had to choose, I would say to play Alexander as he has the best chance to score although I believe Morris will collect the most yards.

Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck: 270 pass/3 TD/1 INT
Deion Branch: 70 rec/1 TD
Bobby Engram: 80 rec/1 TD
Nate Burleson: 50 rec
Shaun Alexander: 50 rush/1 TD
Maurice Morris: 60 rush/25 rec

Vinny Testaverde/Steve Smith/Drew Carter/Jeff King
DeShaun Foster (vs. SEA)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Seahawks this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Seahawks this season: Bears
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 22.7
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 19.7/28.2/3
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 18.9

Passing Game Thoughts: This is a dreadful match for any Smith owner (or worse, Testaverde) that are still in the playoff chase. Last week, Kurt Warner became the first QB to throw for three scores against this defense – and just the second to throw for more than one – this season, but he was also picked off five times. This means that in just two weeks, the Seahawks have intercepted nine passes, contributing greatly to what has been a solid pass defense all season long (10 TD:20 INT). Thankfully, the David Carr experiment appears to be over in Carolina, but there are just not many QBs that would do a lot against this pass defense to begin with. In short, the chances that Smith will score or that Testaverde is going to post some ridiculous stat line this week is slim to none. What small chance does exist of those things actually happening stem from the fact that Seattle has surrendered double-digit points to five WRs over the last four weeks after allowing only three through 10 weeks. The news doesn’t get any better at TE for the Panthers at TE. Outside of Kellen Winslow’s 125-yard performance in Week 9, no TE has surpassed 44 yards receiving. King is in no position to change that.

Running Game Thoughts: Unfortunately for the Panthers, Seattle can be had much easier on the ground than through the air, which is not a good thing for Carolina, which seems content to let Foster carry the weight of the running game. This is despite the fact that he registered just one 100-yard game this season even though he has tallied 17 carries in nine games. DeAngelo Williams’ 4.8 ypc average is more than a full yard better than Foster and he has just as many 100-yard games as his backfield mate does with much less work. Seattle has been exposed in the run game since the break, however, allowing 14.7 points to a RB in four of their six post-bye games. But given the dreadful nature of Carolina’s offense, Foster/Williams will be fortunate to match Edgerrin James’ seven-point total from last week.

Projections:
Vinny Testaverde: 180 pass/0 TD/2 INT
Steve Smith: 60 rec
Drew Carter: 40 rec
Jeff King: 25 rec
DeShaun Foster: 50 rush/15 rec
DeAngelo Williams: 35 rush/15 rec

Titans @ Chiefs
Vince Young/Roydell Williams/Justin Gage
LenDale White/Chris Brown (vs. KC)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Chiefs this season: Raiders (2)
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Chiefs this season: Broncos
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 12.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 13.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 24.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.9/20
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 28.6

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s hard to say this about any team, but last week’s blowout loss to the Broncos was a gut-check game for Kansas City in which they failed miserably. The pass defense, which had been the team’s strong suit all season long, was shredded by a Denver passing game that it held to one TD and 192 yards passing just four weeks earlier. This gives some hope to the owners of Young, who was ineffective for the first time since Week 8 last week. Given the choice, however, Tennessee would prefer to run all day and let Young make a big play every once in a while – which wasn’t needed all that often when the Titans defense played as well it did through three quarters last week. As such, Young, Williams and Gage are all worthy of a bench spot this week, although Gage has been a second-half standout this season. You could do worse than him as a #3 WR this week, but I wouldn’t trust him any more than that in a game where the matchup suggest the Titans should run 40 times.

Running Game Thoughts: White will probably never be the kind of fantasy back that can carry a team, but KC hasn’t done much in the way of stopping any RBs lately, surrendering at least 16.6 points to an opposing rusher in each of the last five contests. Given the Chiefs’ lackluster offense, it is also fair to say that White should hit the 30-carry mark for the second game in a row. Brown is probably worth a play for desperate owners, but when White has been healthy lately, Brown has seen less and less work. Therefore, if you have to choose between Brown and another RB who sees regular carries with a slightly tougher matchup, opt for the latter.

Projections:
Vince Young: 175 pass/1 TD/1 INT/15 rush
Roydell Williams: 40 rec
Justin Gage: 55 rec
LenDale White: 105 rush/1 TD/15 rec
Chris Brown: 45 rush/15 rec

Brodie Croyle/Dwayne Bowe/Eddie Kennison/Tony Gonzalez
Kolby Smith (vs. TEN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Titans this season: Falcons
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Titans this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 5.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 8.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 1.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 21/24.2/6.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 26.1

Passing Game Thoughts: Given all the injuries up front and in the backfield and the relative inexperience at QB, it is pretty difficult to play anyone associated with this passing attack outside of Gonzalez. While Bowe is a great keeper league prospect, his value (outside of a great matchup next week) is just about shot for 2007. After scoring less than seven fantasy points just twice in the first 11 weeks of the season, he has done it in three straight games since. And it is not as if his targets have went down so much as it is that he has been able to catch less than half of those passes. That generally means that the QB is struggling mightily and in Croyle’s case, that isn’t a surprise given his inexperience and unimaginative play-calling. Those struggles somewhat explain why he fed Gonzalez the ball all day and why Gonzo was the only productive Chief in the blowout loss to Denver. While the future Hall of Fame TE isn’t going to come out of fantasy lineups this week, it would be fair to say that he isn’t likely to do all that much with LB Keith Bullock chasing him around most of the day. Also, bear in mind that the Titans basically dominated the Chargers for three-plus quarters. Three straight #1 WRs have put up good yardage totals but each of those receivers had better QB situations than Bowe does right now. Start Gonzo, sit the rest.

Running Game Thoughts: Smith is questionable, which means Gilbert Harris may get the start. Ultimately, any success the Chiefs may have against the Titans this week will depend on the health of the same Albert Haynesworth I have mentioned in this space a number of times over the past few weeks. Against the Chargers, he was unblockable. In all honesty, the thought of Harris carrying the running load against a Tennessee defense that is starting to get healthy and will have little to fear in the passing game is only appealing to those owners who employ the Titans as their fantasy defense. Tennessee has allowed at least 14.8 fantasy points to an opposing RB in each of the last three weeks, but that streak likely stops here against a banged-up offensive line and a dysfunctional offense.

Projections:
Brodie Croyle: 180 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Dwayne Bowe: 50 rec
Eddie Kennison: 30 rec
Tony Gonzalez: 65 rec
Kolby Smith/Gilbert Harris: 60 rush/30 rec

Colts @ Raiders
Peyton Manning/Marvin Harrison/Reggie Wayne/Dallas Clark
Joseph Addai (vs. OAK)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Raiders this season: Packers
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Raiders this season: Packers
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 21.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 23.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 13.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 25.9
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 13.7/16.8/6.6
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 25.1

Passing Game Thoughts: The degree of difficulty for Manning picks up this week after facing a Ravens secondary missing their top two CBs. Even though the Raiders are the toughest unit in fantasy for QBs and the third stingiest vs. WRs, we all know by now Manning and Wayne (and probably Clark) are starting for their owners. This brings us to Gonzalez, who has really taken off lately, registering two 100-yard games in his last three contests. This should lead to a very dynamic offense once again when Marvin Harrison returns. (Of course, dynamic is a relative term for an offense that has scored at least 28 points in each of the last three games.) I’d be a bit surprised if Gonzalez had a huge game again this week, however, because after Indy gets done featuring Addai against the league’s worst run defense and Wayne, I’m not sure there will be a lot of scraps for him to pick up.

Running Game Thoughts: I think most Addai owners would be plenty happy with a repeat of Sunday night’s unexpected three-TD performance from the Colts’ RB. While the matchup says he should, the fact of the matter is that he probably won’t get more than two scores due to several factors such as Manning throwing for a score or two and Keith taking most of the work if the Colts are able to get up by three scores or more late. He should be able to make up for that elusive third score with the yards he was unable to get vs. the Ravens. The Raiders are the team that every RB owner wants to see on their schedule at playoff time (Jacksonville is the Raiders’ opponent next week, in case you were wondering). To give you an idea just how bad Oakland’s run defense is, they have allowed 13.6 points to a RB in all but one game this season and 20 rushing TDs!

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 260 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Reggie Wayne: 90 rec/1 TD
Anthony Gonzalez: 50 rec
Dallas Clark: 60 rec/1 TD
Joseph Addai: 125 rush/2 TD/35 rec

Josh McCown/Jerry Porter/Ronald Curry
Justin Fargas (vs. IND)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Colts this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Colts this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 18.5/20.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 14.9

Passing Game Thoughts: Considering that JaMarcus Russell could step in at any time and take a couple series (or a half), no owner in their right mind should be playing McCown. Additionally, the Colts are the third-toughest defense for QBs to score fantasy points against, so the matchup is not in the Raiders favor either. Interestingly, Porter has posted the best fantasy numbers in each of the past three games for Oakland, but given that Indy is the toughest defense for WRs to score against and is very tough to get deep on, he doesn’t appear to be a solid choice either. With that in mind, Curry should step in this contest, but not to the point where he should be expected to perform any better than a #3 WR. In all honesty, no Raider – run or pass – makes for better than an average play in this contest.

Running Game Thoughts: Much as they have tried over the second half of the season, the Raiders figure to try their best to get Fargas going early and often. Given their recent shutdown performance of Willis McGahee, the Colts have to be extremely confident about their chances against Fargas. In fact, Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor are the only RBs to score more than eight points in the last four games vs. Indianapolis. In short, Fargas is still a worthy #2 RB play this weekend, but he is certainly a player that can be sat this week if a better matchup exists on your bench.

Projections:
Josh McCown: 165 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Jerry Porter: 45 rec
Ronald Curry: 60 rec/1 TD
Justin Fargas: 70 rush/25 rec

Lions @ Chargers
Jon Kitna/Calvin Johnson/Mike Furrey/Shaun McDonald
Kevin Jones (vs. SD)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Chargers this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Chargers this season: Ravens
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 22.8
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 11.7/8.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 20.9

Passing Game Thoughts: Much like I’ll get to with the running game shortly, do owners really know from week to week how the Lions are going to attack their opponent? This team fashions itself as a passing team, but has been highly unpredictable over the last few weeks. About the only thing we can surmise is that Kitna should throw at least 36 times – a mark that he has hit every week over the last five contests. We also know the task is going to be doubly difficult for the Lions without Roy Williams. For the Chargers, Peyton Manning’s 24.4-point performance in Week 10 is the highest number put on San Diego since Week 3. Granted, they haven’t shut down great passing offenses since Manning’s visit, but the Chargers have turned into an opportunistic defense, picking off 22 passes. Amazingly, Johnson still is not leading the team in targets on a weekly basis even with Williams lost for the season. Last week, Furrey led the team in Week 13 and McDonald last week. Considering the talent that San Diego possesses at CB, I believe McDonald – from the slot – has the best chance of success in this game. In the final analysis, I expect another balanced run-pass ratio from Detroit’s offense this week – an approach that bore itself last week due to the absence of Williams and the good offense that the Lions will want to keep off the field – much like the challenge Dallas presented in Week 14. As a result, Kitna is, at best, a low-end #1 QB option and all of his WRs are top-end #3 WR plays at best.

Running Game Thoughts: Do we really know what is going on here? You may remember how I said in the Week 13 edition of ITM how it looked like the Lions’ line was a much better run-blocking unit than pass blocking. You may recall last week how I said owning Jones is akin to a rollercoaster ride. So forgive me if I can neither recommend starting or benching KJ despite what appears to be a tough run defense that he is facing this week. Against two of the better run defenses it has faced recently, Detroit has leaned on Jones and fared better than expected. For what it’s worth, KJ has rarely strung together good back-to-back games in his career. Perhaps last week’s numbers could be explained by the absence of Williams (as explained above). More likely, however, was a conscious acknowledgement that the Cowboys’ offense was very explosive and that it would be prudent to limit their number of possessions. If that is the case, luckily for Jones’ owners, another fairly productive offense awaits them. And given the alternative of throwing against the NFL’s INT leader (CB Antonio Cromartie) and CB Quentin Jammer or running the ball against a decent rush defense, Detroit might do the unthinkable yet again and try to shorten the game by running Jones. Since Adrian Peterson’s (MIN) off-the-charts performance in Week 9, San Diego has held up fairly well against opposing RBs though, allowing well under four yards/carry. They have, however, surrendered three rushing TDs over the last three weeks, including two last week to the Titans.

Projections:
Jon Kitna: 285 pass/2 TD/2 INT
Calvin Johnson: 45 rec/1 TD
Mike Furrey: 40 rec
Shaun McDonald: 70 rec
Kevin Jones: 45 rush/1 TD/30 rec

Philip Rivers/Vincent Jackson/Chris Chambers/Antonio Gates
LaDainian Tomlinson (vs. DET)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Lions this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Lions this season: Eagles
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 57.9
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 25.3/29.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 30.9

Passing Game Thoughts: Rivers is dealing with a knee issue and FB Lorenzo Neal has been lost for the remainder of the regular season – taking some of the luster off this matchup in both the running and passing games for the Chargers. That said, nine QBs have thrown for two or more scores vs. the Lions – including fantasy stalwarts such as Josh McCown and Tarvaris Jackson. In short, this is a great week to load up on San Diego offensive players in your lineup – Detroit ranks in the top 10 in terms of allowing the most fantasy points/game to QBs, WRs and TEs. Since the Lions are still reeling from Jason Witten’s big game last week, I would expect a bit more attention will be paid to Gates, which will only open up things for Chambers to burn them. Deep threat after deep threat has scorched Detroit and considering Chambers will likely be the third priority on the defense’s list of players to stop, I expect him to have his first 100-yard game as a Charger after picking up 90 last week vs. the Titans. Gates’ owners – regardless of whether more attention will be paid to him or not – have to be thrilled after Witten torched this same defense for 15 catches and 139 yards. While Jackson has failed to live up to the expectations placed on him by fantasy owners this season and shouldn’t be started despite the soft matchup, Rivers, Gates and Chambers are among three of the best plays at their positions this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Outside of a few throws to Gates and deep bombs to Chambers, I don’t see any reason why the Chargers should pass more than 20 times in this game. Detroit is averaging a whopping 25 points/game allowed to the RB position, has surrendered seven RB scores in the last three weeks and is coming off a home game where Marion Barber scored three times. Add in the fact that the Lions defense had been better at home until recently and LT owners have to be absolutely thrilled with his chances to put up a 2006-like performance this week. Of mild concern should be the loss of Neal, one of the best run-blocking backs the league has seen. His absence should ultimately lead to more two-TE sets (with Brandon Manumaleuna likely motioning to the backfield on a handful of plays to help fill the void of Neal in the two-back sets the Bolts like to run). While Neal will be missed, LT should thrive regardless in what appear to be pretty soft matchups against the Lions and next week vs. the Broncos.

Projections:
Philip Rivers: 270 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Vincent Jackson: 40 rec
Chris Chambers: 100 rec/1 TD
Antonio Gates: 75 rec/1 TD
LaDainian Tomlinson: 130 rush/3 TD/45 rec

Eagles @ Cowboys
Donovan McNabb/Kevin Curtis/Reggie Brown
Brian Westbrook (vs. DAL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cowboys this season: Eagles
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Cowboys this season: Eagles
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 17.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 17.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 21.5
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 13.3/18
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 22.5

Passing Game Thoughts: The Dallas pass defense has been kind of a hit-or-miss unit this season, just like McNabb. For the most part, this defense can be exploited but if the Cowboys’ earlier blowout win over the Eagles was any indication, it doesn’t figure on happening this week. McNabb himself has been inconsistent, although he has maintained his caretaker ways this season (as in very few interceptions). To his credit, he has posted a couple of four-TD efforts in Week 3 and Week 10, but has accounted for no more than a single score in any other game. Even though the Cowboys have been burned by four-TD efforts twice this season, it doesn’t figure on happening this weekend since McNabb’s last such game vs. Dallas was in 2004. Next week’s matchup vs. New Orleans appears to be much more promising for this passing game (particularly Curtis), but for the reasons stated above, it’s hard to make any WR a strong play when the offense has struggled to score even 20 points in games that McNabb is under center (three games in all – all Philly wins). The Eagles have spread the wealth to the WRs lately, making both Brown and Curtis usable, but hardly high-quality options against a Dallas defense that allowed just one WR score in the first meeting and only two receiver TDs since.

Running Game Thoughts: Not much analysis needed here. Westbrook goes regardless of the matchup. He scored in first game between these teams and, in all honesty, how often he appears in the end zone is the only thing that keeps the versatile back from the best fantasy back in just about every week. This year, he has already crossed the stripe a career-high 12 times and the great thing with him is that every time he touches the ball, it can turn into a huge play. Dallas’ run defense lost some of its luster after giving up three rushing scores vs. the Lions last week, a fact that has to make Westbrook owners salivate. With Dallas having allowed 11 RB scores on the season, owners should plan on Westbrook scoring at least once this week to go along with his usual 100-total-yard effort.

Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 250 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Kevin Curtis: 55 rec
Reggie Brown: 65 rec
Brian Westbrook: 85 rush/1 TD/60 rec/1 TD

Tony Romo/Terrell Owens/Patrick Crayton/Jason Witten
Julius Jones/Marion Barber (vs. PHI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Eagles this season: Cowboys
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Eagles this season: Cowboys
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 27.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 23.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 19.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 30.5
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 19.8/31.5/1.2
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 18.6

Passing Game Thoughts: While no QB has managed to give Tom Brady a run for his money in fantasy this season, Romo has come the closest. He has thrown for more than two TDs in all but one game and has accounted for at least four scores in a single game five times. While his last effort against Philly was only a three-TD game, the team leaned on the running game in the final quarter after establishing a huge lead. Owens was the only WR to catch a pass in the game as the TEs and RBs ruled the day, although TO’s 23.4-point performance in that game should give his owners plenty of hope this time around. Crayton has been somewhat inconsistent and saw only one target in the first matchup, but with receivers like Nate Burleson and James Thrash having their way with this pass defense, there is plenty of reason to start him in three-WR leagues – Philly allows the ninth-most points to the position. And don’t be fooled by the Eagles’ recent strong performances against TEs. Witten proved last week what regular readers of this column have known for a while – that he is Romo’s most trusted target. While it’s doubtful the Cowboys’ TEs will score twice like they did in Week 9, Witten is as good of bet at the position as there is this season at TE.

Running Game Thoughts: As one would expect in a RBBC situation, Barber has been consistently inconsistent. However, when he has been good, he has been really good as last week’s three-TD would attest. He has a strong matchup this week as well, a team which he (16.6) and Jones (13.9) posted stellar numbers against in Week 9. In analyzing their recent numbers against opposing RBs, the Eagles have seemingly played to the level of their competition, but are fantasy’s seventh-toughest defense for RBs to score points against. That matters very little to the Cowboys, who will run enough to make at least one RB – if not two – productive just about every week. Barber should once again be one of the better plays at the #2 RB spot while Jones warrants some consideration as a flex player.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 300 pass/3 TD/0 INT/20 rush
Terrell Owens: 120 rec/1 TD
Patrick Crayton: 45 rec/1 TD
Jason Witten: 80 rec/1 TD
Julius Jones: 45 rush/15 rec
Marion Barber: 85 rush/1 TD/20 rec

Redskins @ Giants
Todd Collins/Santana Moss/Antwaan Randle El/Chris Cooley
Clinton Portis (vs. NYG)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Giants this season: Redskins
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Giants this season: Redskins
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 14.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 11.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 7.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 18.7
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 15.7/13.8/5.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 17.9

Passing Game Thoughts: I’m hoping for your sake that no one outside of Cooley owners have a particular interest in the Redskins from a fantasy standpoint this week – Collins threw his first two TD passes last week since 2002 against a decimated Bears defense. While the Giants are far from 100%, they should have little problem mounting a considerable pass rush against the veteran QB. After what appeared to be a slow start to the season, it turns out that New York has been a pretty good barometer for what QBs are elite this season and which ones are a step or two below. Tony Romo and Brett Favre are the only two QBs to account for more than two scores in a game this season against New York. That figures to be bad news for a Redskins passing attack that has thrown for just 14 scores this season. The Giants have allowed their share of points to opposing passers, but over the last three weeks, they have allowed no more than 18.8 points to the QB position. Because Washington will stick to the ball-control game as long as possible, Cooley is the only strong play from this bunch. After a short burst of WR scores in the middle of the season, Redskins receivers have been held scoreless over the last three weeks and have scored just four times all year. Cooley has evolved into an absolute stud over the last four games, scoring no less than 8.9 points in that time. In three of those games, he has seen at least 10 targets.

Running Game Thoughts: Given the QB situation, the load of the Redskins’ offense will likely fall even more of the shoulders of Portis and maybe even Ladell Betts. Portis has been held in check rushing yardage-wise over the last four weeks – and the Giants have been stout vs. the run the last five weeks, surrendering 3.4 ypc and just two RBs scores over that time. As such, don’t expect a repeat of Portis’ Week 3 15.7-point performance. His main contribution should be through receiving yardage as Washington struggles to find a way to move the ball consistently. With the exception of one poor performance vs. Dallas in Week 11, Portis has been good for at least 8.1 points all season long, a feat that is achievable here as well.

Projections:
Todd Collins: 180 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Santana Moss: 45 rec
Antwaan Randle El: 40 rec
Chris Cooley: 65 rec/1 TD
Clinton Portis: 60 rush/25 rec

Eli Manning/Plaxico Burress/Amani Toomer/Jeremy Shockey
Brandon Jacobs (vs. WAS)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Redskins this season: Giants
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Redskins this season: Giants
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 15.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 18.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 7.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 24.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 14/15.9/4.6
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 13.4

Passing Game Thoughts: Starting with Tom Brady’s five-TD performance in Week 8, the Redskins have really struggled to stop opponents’ passing games – four of the last six QBs to face them have registered 20 or more fantasy points. On the other hand, Manning – after such a strong start to the season – hasn’t approached that mark since Week 6. Even though he has taken just about every snap this season and continues to score in double digits, he is far from an option I would want to count on at this point. He has thrown for one TD in five straight games (but has also been picked off eight times). Burress, earlier in the week, declared he is feeling better than he has in some time. Don’t kid yourself though – while he posted a fine effort last week – on the one play he did break free deep, he showed absolutely no ability to pull away from the defense or else he would have likely had at least two TDs. For what it is worth, Burress is one of five WRs to score more than 14.6 points vs. Washington this season. Toomer is a strong #3 WR start this week, although owners should be weary of him, too. Despite Burress’ lingering ankle/knee injuries, Toomer has routinely seen about half as many targets as his fellow starting WR. Toomer has posted 10-point efforts or better just twice this season. Shockey had a solid 79-yard effort in the first meeting between these teams in Week 3, so while he has tailed off production-wise of late, the former University of Miami standout should be a good start against a Redskins’ defense that has permitted steady point totals in the past weeks to TEs that are not used much by their teams. Washington has surrendered four TE scores this season, keeping them right in the middle of the pack in regards to defending the TE.

Running Game Thoughts: Jacobs averaged less than four ypc for the first time this season last week and has vowed there will be no repeat of that. Washington, which was a solid overall defense in the season’s first half, has fallen off considerably due to the losses of S Sean Taylor and CB Carlos Rogers among others. Needless to say, while the pass defense has suffered the most, the run defense has gone from very good to average at best. The Redskins have given up 14.4 points to an opposing RB in three of the last five contests. Therefore, it is very conceivable Jacobs – assuming his hamstring is near 100% - will be able to follow through on his promise and deliver his owners a respectable performance. Washington has allowed just seven RB scores all season, but four have come in the last five weeks.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 220 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Plaxico Burress: 80 rec/1 TD
Amani Toomer: 50 rec
Jeremy Shockey: 60 rec
Brandon Jacobs: 90 rush/1 TD/15 rec

Bears @ Vikings
Kyle Orton/Bernard Berrian/Muhsin Muhammad/Desmond Clark/Greg Olsen
Adrian Peterson (vs. MIN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Vikings this season: Bears
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Vikings this season: Bears
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 31.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 40.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 11.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 13.1
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.7/20.7/7.3
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 10.8

Passing Game Thoughts: The Bears have exhausted their QB depth chart. If his previous experience as a starter means anything, Orton will be Mr. Ball Control and favor Muhammad over Berrian. It would also be safe to say that the TEs should get a lot of action as well. However, I think it would be pretty foolish at this point to put any kind of faith (in the fantasy playoffs, no less) in the hands of Orton & Co. That being said, the Vikings have allowed at least 13.3 points to the QB position in each of the last five games, with four of those going for 17 points or more. In the end, with Chicago starting Orton, they are essentially waving the white flag and owners would be wise to let go of their hopes for their Bears to post good numbers as well this season.

Running Game Thoughts: Cedric Benson actually fared well against the Vikes in his only action against them this season, but Peterson’s contribution behind Chicago’s average and aging run-blocking line figures to come in the passing game. A few more RBs have been able to get through the cracks this season (as opposed to last season) against the Vikings, but it is still one of the better run-stopping units in the league. The few points that Chicago figures to score this week will be either through field goals or the passing game, so if you can at all avoid this mess, please do so. Only 13.1 points came out of the running game in the first meeting and a good chunk of that was receiving yardage. Do yourself a favor and look elsewhere for a #2 RB this week, Peterson should be a flex play at best. What is worse for Peterson owners is the fact that the Bears want to expand Garrett Wolfe’s role this week as well.

Projections:
Kyle Orton: 200 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Bernard Berrian: 45 rec
Muhsin Muhammad: 60 rec/1 TD
Desmond Clark: 25 rec
Greg Olsen: 35 rec/1 TD
Adrian Peterson: 50 rush/30 rec

Tarvaris Jackson/Sidney Rice/Bobby Wade
Chester Taylor/Adrian Peterson (vs. CHI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bears this season: Vikings
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bears this season: Vikings
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 10.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 18.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 50
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 20.7/16.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 30.5

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s pretty amazing for a team to score 139 points over four weeks in today’s NFL and have only 24 of those points come by way of a passing TD. Sure enough, Jackson has thrown for just four TDs over the last four weeks, but the Vikings are averaging nearly 35 points/game. The point is that while there are now some points coming out of the passing game, Minnesota knows what it is right now: a running team that has an opportunistic defense. I know it sounds like a broken record throughout this article, but given how successful the Vikings were running the ball in Week 6 against a better Bears defense than the one they currently field, why would they abandon that gameplan? As such, expect something similar to the 23 pass attempts Jackson had in the first meeting because there is really no reason to change. Troy Williamson accounted for the only receiving TD in Week 6, but he has been phased out by the emergence of Rice along with the steady Wade and the unpredictable Robert Ferguson. Rice is the only WR I would even consider as a #3 WR in my lineup, but that is a desperation play at best for a team that I don’t expect to throw more than 20 times.

Running Game Thoughts: Peterson became far from a sure thing in this matchup the minute (or more like the game) in which the 49ers were able to shut him down last week. However, it would be utterly shocking if the Vikings abandoned the same game plan they used vs. the Bears in Week 6 in which Minnesota RBs rushed 45 times for over 300 yards and three scores. It’s fair to say that with Chicago’s defense so ravaged by injury, they will not be the same unit that we have come to know in previous years until next season. While no one should expect a repeat of Peterson’s 41.3-point performance in Week 6, the Vikings are going to have very little incentive to throw against a cover 2 defense – the one part of the Bears defense that isn’t a wreck. In short, expect another 40-rush game from the Vikings with AD and Taylor splitting the load fairly evenly. Peterson is a top 5 play this weekend and Taylor is once again likely a low-end #1 RB candidate.

Projections:
Tarvaris Jackson: 180 pass/1 TD/1 INT/10 rush
Sidney Rice: 45 rec/1 TD
Troy Williamson: 25 rec
Bobby Wade: 45 rec
Chester Taylor: 75 rush/1 TD/25 rec
Adrian Peterson: 120 rush/2 TD/30 rec