QBs: (1 pt per 25 yds passing; 6 pts for all TDs, -2 pts/INT or fumble)
RBs/WRs/TEs: (1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 6 points per TD)

Note: Teams that have a fantasy relevant TE will be included. Also, for the first weeks, projected fantasy points allowed will be used as teams have yet to establish any trends. After the first month of the season, this column will take on the look it had last season as there will be enough information to start analyzing trends.

Also, Week 6’s Inside the Matchup will be abbreviated due to extenuating circumstances. Thank you for your understanding and please follow the e-mail link above if you have any questions. Week 7’s edition will return to normal.

Bye Weeks: Bengals, Vikings, Raiders, Eagles

STL @ ARI | ATL @ TEN | CAR @ NO | CLE @ NE | DET @ WAS | JAX @ KC | MIA @ HOU
NYJ @ NYG | SEA @ PIT | TB @ IND | BAL @ SF | SD @ DEN | CHI @ GB | DAL @ BUF

Rams @ Cardinals
Gus Frerotte/Torry Holt/Drew Bennett/Randy McMichael
Brian Leonard (vs. ARI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cardinals this season: 49ers
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Cardinals this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 6.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 9.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 14.9/22.7/2.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 14.5

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s a damn shame this potentially high-flying act has been reduced to this. It’s quite possible the Rams offense has seen the quickest collapse from an elite unit into one resembling the 2006 Raiders. And one has to look no further than the offensive line, but in all reality, one would be hard-pressed to find a regular starter on the Rams offense that is not currently playing with an injury that should be sidelining him. Holt is, in all honesty, the only fantasy play on this team right now and he is likely going to produce only at a #3 WR level, at least until Steven Jackson gets back, if not for the rest of the season. If you do have the misfortune of owning a Rams player right now, see if their reputation can bring back some kind of startable talent in return in a trade, because most of the injuries don’t figure to heal as soon as the Rams need them to and St. Louis’ schedule doesn’t get easier anytime in the near future.

Running Game Thoughts: Read above…it really boils down to injuries. Leonard did well vs. the Cowboys in Week 4 to put up 59 total yards. To put that into perspective, Miami’s Ronnie Brown – fantasy’s best RB through four games – totaled just 69 yards against Dallas. In the Cardinals, the Rams face a defense that held Willie Parker to less than two yards/carry. Now, of the RBs that Arizona has already faced, Leonard profiles most like Willis McGahee, who had a fair amount of success against them. However, McGahee had the benefit of 25 touches and a good defense to keep him in the game, Leonard does not. As hard as it is to say, the rookie is probably not even worth a flex play until further notice.

Projections:
Gus Frerotte: 190 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Torry Holt: 50 rec
Drew Bennett: 60 rec
Randy McMichael: 40 rec/1 TD
Brian Leonard: 60 rush/25 rec

Matt Leinart & Kurt Warner/Larry Fitzgerald/Bryant Johnson
Edgerrin James (vs. STL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Rams this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Rams this season: Bucs
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 37.5
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 18.6/20.3
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 25.3

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s a good thing fantasy owners can usually count on Anquan Boldin and Fitzgerald (of course, Boldin is likely to miss his second straight game), because HC Ken Whisenhunt had no problems following through on his plans to rotate Leinart and Warner. Predictably, it makes inserting either QB nearly impossible into fantasy lineups. They face a Rams defense that will gladly welcome back arguably their best CB – Fahkir Brown – from suspension but a defense that offers very little resistance against the run or the pass overall. In two games, they have allowed a combined six TD passes against one RB score while in the other two contests, they have surrendered five rushing scores to the RB position and no TDs to the opposing QB. Even though they will involve Fitzgerald (and Boldin, if he plays), this game should be all about Edge. Expect small numbers from the passing game, as Whisenhunt will discover early on that Arizona will have very little reason to throw much more than 20-25 times.

Running Game Thoughts: After a rough two-game stretch against some of the best run defenses in the NFL – against which he did very well – James will get to visit the other side of the spectrum when the Cardinals head to St. Louis. The Rams have permitted 712 total yards and six TDs to opposing RBs through four games – an average of 178 total yards and 1.5 scores. That total probably doesn’t miss the mark too much as far as what James should get in this game.

Projections:
Matt Leinart: 80 pass/0 TD/0 INT
Kurt Warner: 120 pass/1 TD/0 INT
Larry Fitzgerald: 100 rec/1 TD
Bryant Johnson: 50 rec
Edgerrin James: 115 rush/2 TD/20 rec

Falcons @ Titans
Joey Harrington/RoddyWhite/Michael Jenkins/Alge Crumpler
Warrick Dunn/Jerious Norwood (vs. TEN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Titans this season: Jags
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Titans this season: Jags
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 16.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 19.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 3.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 5.6
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 10.9/18.7/7.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 13

Passing Game Thoughts: The Titans are allowing 10.9 pts/game to the QB position. Indianapolis was able to get some yards in the passing game against Tennessee (312 yards), but outside of that, the Titans have been pretty stingy. Bear in mind that the Falcons aerial attack – considering the struggles of the Saints – may be the second-best passing game the defense has faced. That said, Harrington is not a good play this week, although Tennessee has been beaten deep from time to time, making the upstart White a very viable #3 WR option this week. Crumpler will be the best TE the team has faced outside of Dallas Clark and the Titans are giving up some yards each week to the position, so play Crump like you normally would.

Running Game Thoughts: Given the high number of walking wounded RBs out there, an owner could do worse than Dunn and/or Norwood on their bench. However, it doesn’t say much when Dunn cracks 60 rushing yards for the first time this season and that is considered reason to celebrate. In Week 5, they face a Titans defense that is yielding a miniscule 13 points/game to the RB position (and 3.2 yds/carry). I don’t see Dunn/Norwood being able to break through against a defense that stifled the Jaguars and Saints RBs duos while doing a very respectable job against Joseph Addai.

Projections:
Joey Harrington: 215 yds pass/1 TD/2 INT
Roddy White: 70 yds rec/1 TD
Michael Jenkins: 60 yds rec
Alge Crumpler: 50 yds rec
Warrick Dunn: 40 yds rush/15 yds rec
Jerious Norwood: 35 yds rush/15 yds rec

Vince Young/Brandon Jones/Eric Moulds/Bo Scaife
LenDale White/Chris Brown (vs. ATL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Falcons this season: Jags
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Falcons this season: Vikings
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 18.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 24.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 5.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 12.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.9/16.4/6.9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 19.6

Passing Game Thoughts: Much like their defense, the Titans lack much star-power on offense, but they are awfully efficient. The closest thing the Falcons have seen to Young this season athletically is Tavaris Jackson, but the best run-pass combination was David Garrard. As will be the gameplan for 90% of the season, the Titans will pound away with White, relieve him from time to time with Brown and let Young bail them out of any third-and-long conversion attempt. This formula lends to a fair amount of success on the real playing field, but is not all that great for fantasy owners scouring the waiver wire for WRs and TEs looking to fill out their boxscores. A different WR has led Tennessee in fantasy points each week, and given the success of the running game, even Young’s favorite target (and college teammate) Scaife has been a minimal contributor.

Running Game Thoughts: It appeared to me early on, the Titans were a RBBC team that an owner could look to the matchup to find out which RB would be more successful. After taking in Week 3’s MNF game, it looks to me Tennessee will ensure White will get his carries first and then Brown will relieve him in spots, regardless of the matchup. Going forward, the one to own – by a wide margin – is White. However, Brown will steal enough carries from White to make the former Trojan a low-end #3 RB for now. For this game, the Titans will get White his usual 18-20 carries while Brown should finish with 12-15 as the Falcons will likely struggle to score against Tennessee, making White a good play and Brown a passable option to cover for a bye week.

Projections:
Vince Young: 175 pass/1 TD/1 INT/30 rush/1 TD
Brandon Jones: 35 rec
Eric Moulds: 40 rec/1 TD
Bo Scaife: 30 rec
LenDale White: 70 rush/1 TD
Chris Brown: 55 rush/15 rec

Panthers @ Saints
David Carr/Steve Smith/Keary Colbert/Jeff King
DeShaun Foster/DeAngelo Williams (vs. NO)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Saints this season: Bucs
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Saints this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 22.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 30.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 4.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 23.8/28.5/6.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 20.7

Passing Game Thoughts: A lot of people’s vogue pick to recapture their glory from seasons’ past, the Panthers have fallen off the map quickly, especially in the passing game. As much criticism as Jake Delhomme seems to draw from game-to-game and year-to-year, he knows Smith is the one that butters his bread and both thrive when they are healthy. Bucs CB Ronde Barber, who guarded Smith most of Week 4, said that Tampa Bay never had to follow through on their “tricks” to bottle up Smith because Carr wasn’t giving him his opportunities. Keep tabs on Delhomme’s health because after last year, it appears Smith’s elite numbers are very much tied in to his long relationship with Delhomme. Either way, don’t be afraid to sell high after Week 5 after Smith puts up a good game against a woeful New Orleans pass defense, because without Delhomme, this passing attack is going to get worse before it gets better.

Running Game Thoughts: Foster has seemingly widened the lead on the depth chart over Williams, as Foster has 35 carries over the past two weeks – nearly triple of the rushes Williams has in that time (13). That bodes well for the six-year vet, who faces a fairly cushy matchup against fantasy’s eighth-most friendly defense against RBs, giving up 20.7 points/game to the position. Foster enjoyed a good amount of success last season against them (202 total yards, two TDs in two meetings) and it is fair to say things haven’t changed much on New Orleans’ defense. What makes it even more tempting to use Foster is that the Saints have allowed at least one RB score in every game so far. With Carr under center, expect a heavy dose of the running game, meaning Foster will likely perform a #1 RB this week.

Projections:
David Carr: 210 pass/2 TD/2 INT
Steve Smith: 70 rec/1 TD
Keary Colbert: 40 rec/1 TD
DeShaun Foster: 100 rush/1 TD/20 rec
DeAngelo Williams: 25 rush/20 rec

Drew Brees/Marques Colston/Lance Moore/Eric Johnson
Reggie Bush (vs. CAR)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Panthers this season: Texans
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Panthers this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 21.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 24.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 4.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 19.2/21/5.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 15.9

Passing Game Thoughts: You heard it here first…okay, you’ve heard it here before. This is the game that Brees gets it going. However, I attribute many of the Saints struggles to an inexplicable collapse of the offensive line, which was nearly impenetrable a season ago but has seemingly fallen on their laurels since. Unlike the Rams, the Saints don’t have injuries to blame for their woeful front-line play. However, they face a defense that – considering its reputation – has only registered two sacks and no interceptions through four games. In fact, their only saving grace is that they have recovered six fumbles. With that in mind, Brees should have ample time to find Colston down the field – every opponent’s lead WR has put up 100 yards, a TD or both against the Panthers this season. And Week 3 revealed Brees trusts Moore a lot, so look for his role in the offense to continue to increase.

Running Game Thoughts: Losing MLB Dan Morgan early in Week 4 – and as it turns out, indefinitely – further sets back a run defense that was just run over against the Bucs. As mentioned here earlier in the season, without Morgan, the Panthers defense drops off dramatically. On the other side, Deuce McAllister’s season-ending knee injury changes the dynamic of the Saints’ offense but, in all honesty, it should open it up. New Orleans figures to have an anemic rushing attack – yardage-wise – going forward, or at least until Bush learns how to run inside, as Aaron Stecker is more Bush than McAllister. A possible wild-card for the second half of the season is Pierre Thomas, an undrafted free agent rookie who beat out fourth-round pick Antonio Pittman in camp. He is faster than McAllister and may be able to fill his role in this offense – albeit not as well – when he gets more acclimated to the pro game. For now, however, this ground game will only as effective as Bush makes it.

Projections:
Drew Brees: 290 pass/3 TD/0 INT
Marques Colston: 110 rec/1 TD
Lance Moore: 55 rec/1 TD
Eric Johnson: 40 rec
Reggie Bush: 45 rush/50 rec/1 TD

Browns @ Patriots
Derek Anderson/Braylon Edwards/Joe Jurevicius/Kellen Winslow
Jamal Lewis (vs. NE)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Patriots this season: Chargers
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Patriots this season: Bills
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 13.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 7.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 13.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 17.6
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 11.4/16.1/5.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 11.9

Passing Game Thoughts: Color me impressed that the Browns outscored the Bengals and outdefended the Ravens…even though that is kind of a lie. Getting the number increased on the left side of the column instead of the right side is all that matters – reality or fantasy. To help you in the latter, I will continue to recommend the same guy I have before – Anderson. He faces a tough defense this week, doesn’t have the greatest job security in the world and his accuracy comes and goes, but the Oregon St. product has something not many QBs have – weapons. As a result, he has accounted for at least two TDs each of his three starts, a trend I expect to continue against the big, bad Patriots. I would expect down games from Jurevicius and Edwards though, but the Pats have shown a little vulnerability against the TE, surrendering 5.5 points/game to the position through four games. As such, he should have the best day of any receiving option for the Browns.

Running Game Thoughts: Lewis stuck it to me and his former team last week, finding the end zone despite the Ravens tough run defense that had not allowed a RB score through three contests. Now, he looks to pull the two-fer on me and post a similar effort against New England. The Pats are allowing just 3.5 yds/carry through four games, including shutting down LT and Marshawn Lynch, so while Lewis is showing some renewed life, he will struggle to get it going anymore than he did last week when he carried 23 times for 64 yards. Don’t expect a repeat – of the score or the yardage – this week.

Projections:
Derek Anderson: 235 pass/2 TD/3 INT/10 rush
Braylon Edwards: 70 rec/1 TD
Joe Jurevicius: 40 rec
Kellen Winslow: 65 rec/1 TD
Jamal Lewis: 55 rush/15 rec

Tom Brady/Randy Moss/Wes Welker/Donte Stallworth/Ben Watson
Laurence Maroney/Sammy Morris (vs. CLE)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Browns this season: Steelers, Bengals
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Browns this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 40
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 44.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 8.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 27.7/29.8/9.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 19.5

Passing Game Thoughts: You don’t need my input to tell you this passing game is for real. Three TDs or more in each of the first four games will do that for a person. Even though Brady was an every-week start to begin with, his owners can either bask in his 25+ fantasy point glory or trade him for a king’s ransom. Cleveland has allowed at least one passing score in every game so far – and nine overall – so don’t expect this passing game to slow down just yet. There is little reason why Moss cannot continue his run of 100-yard, two-TD performances against Cleveland and I expect Stallworth to earn his keep as well, starting this week. TEs have also enjoyed a great deal of success vs. the Browns, meaning Watson should also do well.

Running Game Thoughts: If Maroney owners want their guy to score, he’s going to have to do it from five or more yards out. Even better, it appears this job share trickles down to third-stringer Heath Evans, meaning when Maroney plays, Morris is the goal line back while when Morris is the starter, Evans is short yardage guy. (Whatever happened to the idea that vision being the key factor as to whether or not a RB could score? There must be some really nasty things that happen to RBs down by the goal line that we don’t see.) All kidding aside, every Browns opponent has had their feature back top 100 rushing yards, a trend I see continuing in Week 5. Maroney is a different type of runner than Cleveland has faced to this point and is not a player that former Pats DC (and current Browns HC) Romeo Crennel would know intimately from his days in New England. In short, there is no reason not to expect #1 RB numbers from Maroney this week if he plays. And if he doesn’t, the same goes for Morris.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 300 pass/3 TD/0 INT
Randy Moss: 105 rec/1 TD
Donte Stallworth: 50 rec/1 TD
Wes Welker: 65 rec
Ben Watson: 20 rec/1 TD
Laurence Maroney: 90 rush/1 TD20 rec
Sammy Morris: 55 rush/1 TD/20 rec

Lions @ Redskins
Jon Kitna/Roy Williams/Calvin Johnson/Mike Furrey/Shaun McDonald
Tatum Bell/Kevin Jones (vs. WAS)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Redskins this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Redskins this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 11.7/14.2/6.1
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 18.2

Passing Game Thoughts: Football can sometimes be very interesting from the standpoint of how two completely different approaches can both achieve the same W-L result. It makes it even better when we get to see those approaches paired up against each other. Such is the case in this tilt, one that would have been considered unspectacular just one month ago. As it will be for every opponent of the Lions, the biggest question that will face the Redskins is: do they have enough good CBs to cover Detroit’s four-wide alignment? My guess is no. Williams and McDonald will be consistent plays throughout the majority of the season as will Johnson, health permitting. Furrey is the wild card and stands to benefit the most when one of the first three do not play. Chris Chambers, Jason Avant and Plaxico Burress all had 80+ yards receiving against Washington, with Burress scoring the lone WR touchdown allowed by the Redskins defense. Both Williams and Johnson enjoy a significant size advantage over most CBs, so they are the best bets to score in this contest.

Running Game Thoughts: Jones is slowly being worked into his old job and may become a fine #2 fantasy RB in a couple weeks. However, the Redskins are stingy enough against the run right now that he doesn’t make all that great of a play this week yet, especially since Detroit will look to pass all day.

Projections:
Jon Kitna: 260 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Roy Williams: 85 rec/1 TD
Calvin Johnson: 60 rec/1 TD
Mike Furrey: 40 rec
Shaun McDonald: 50 rec
Kevin Jones: 50 rush/1 TD/20 rec
Tatum Bell: 20 rush

Jason Campbell/Santana Moss/Antwaan Randle El/Chris Cooley
Clinton Portis/Ladell Betts (vs. DET)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Lions this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Lions this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 20/25/3.6
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 30.6

Passing Game Thoughts: How well this group boils down to how well the Washington defense holds up against the fast and furious Lions passing attack. If they fall behind early, Campbell may push for his first 300-yard passing day. If the Redskins defense is stout and is able to make Kitna hold on to the ball for any length of time, then Campbell’s yardage output will be minimal. I expect the latter more than the former, therefore, Moss makes a nice play as a #3 WR (if he can go) while Cooley should see more action in pass patterns than he has lately. The Redskins TE has been kept in to pass-protect more than usual due to the season-ending injuries to the right side of the offensive line. Desmond Clark put up a pretty nice game – and was targeted 10 times – in Week 4, something Cooley could push as Washington tries to kill the clock. They will take a shot or two, but for the most part, expect a conservative game plan that attempts to keep the Lions offense off the field.

Running Game Thoughts: If the Redskins have their way, they will run 40+ times in this game. That would mean that they are sustaining drives, keeping their defense rested and, most importantly, keeping the score in the teens. As such, Portis and Betts both make outstanding plays (and Betts makes an outstanding play if Portis’ knee troubles him any more). The Lions defense has kept opposing RBs somewhat in check, but have been pummeled by them on the road, especially in the passing game. Look for a repeat in this game.

Projections:
Jason Campbell: 235 pass/2 TD/1 INT/20 rush
Santana Moss: 90 rec/1 TD
Antwaan Randle El: 50 rec (expect Moss’ totals if he can’t go)
Chris Cooley: 25 rec/1 TD
Clinton Portis: 50 rush/15 rec
Ladell Betts: 100 rush/1 TD/30 rec

Jaguars @ Chiefs
David Garrard/Dennis Northcutt/Ernest Wilford
Fred Taylor/Maurice Jones-Drew/Greg Jones (vs. KC)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Chiefs this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Chiefs this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 7.5/11/4.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 17.7

Passing Game Thoughts: Every week, there is at least one matchup or a trend I am interested to see play out. One of this week’s trends would be the development of the Jaguars’ offense after their bye week. Does OC Dirk Koetter go away from his beloved passing game to focus on his stud RBs? If he does, do Taylor and MJD get equal time? I ask these questions primarily because outside of Northcutt, I don’t expect much from the WRs again – and even Northcutt’s numbers will likely be minimal. Kansas City has been the toughest defense for fantasy QBs to score against, but they have yet to face a running threat like Garrard either. That said, the Chiefs defense has limited opposing QBs to two total TDs, something I don’t see changing all that much here. This will be a low-scoring battle that will be decided on the good old-fashioned values of who can run, who can stop the run and who wins the turnover battle – the first two of which KC has had trouble doing for most of the season.

Running Game Thoughts: Of all the 32 teams in the league, I must admit I have less idea what is happening with the Jacksonville offense than any other team. Koetter’s background says “pass”, but the Jags’ personnel says “run”. Truth be told, I believe this team starts running the ball more often (and more effectively) going forward, but not to the point they did last season. Taylor has been more effective than MJD in two straight games, something that bodes well for Taylor if he gets enough opportunities to exploit a Chiefs defense that is allowing 4.4 yds/carry. Three straight opponents have seen their main RB top 100 yards rushing, a mark that could very well be extended this week if Taylor gets enough carries.

Projections:
David Garrard: 185 pass/1 TD/1 INT/25 rush
Dennis Northcutt: 50 rec
Ernest Wilford: 55 rec
Fred Taylor: 90 rush/15 rec
Maurice Jones-Drew: 40 rush/1 TD/20 rec
Greg Jones: 10 rush

Damon Huard/Dwayne Bowe/Eddie Kennison/Tony Gonzalez
Larry Johnson (vs. JAX)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Jags this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Jags this season: Titans
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 25.7
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 10.1/11.1/4.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 18.2

Passing Game Thoughts: Every week, fans – real and fantasy – hope to find a good seat and watch an entertaining, nailbiting game. While this one figures to be close, it doesn’t figure to be all that thrilling. Despite rolling up 30 points on the Chargers, the Chiefs offense has a long way to go yet in my mind to reach average. However, thanks to the rookie Bowe, this offense is not longer dreadful. Bowe is likely to be limited by a good CB tandem in Rashean Mathis and Brian Williams, so don’t expect the kind of numbers you have been getting from him recently, but that also does not mean he can’t fit in nicely as a #3 WR for the remainder of the season either. Bowe’s emergence can mean only good things for Gonzo and will only open up things in the running game, two things the Chiefs have to be happy about.

Running Game Thoughts: We are nearing the end of the clearance sale on LJ’s stock. (If you have fared well with Johnson starting off slow because of his wretched schedule, then you are in luck. If you didn’t, you were forewarned.) Mind you, he had been held scoreless this whole time, so don’t buy with the idea he will repeat last year’s numbers just because the schedule lightens up a bit after this week. In the Jags, he faces a defense that may extend that scoreless streak while also keeping his total yardage numbers down. After being humbled by Chris Brown in Week 1, Jacksonville has recovered nicely to allow Atlanta and Denver RBs just 3.4 yds/carry. Because they will be able to defend Bowe and Gonzalez without much change in their gameplan, they can focus on LJ, meaning the Penn St. alum will post #2 RB numbers yet again.

Projections:
Damon Huard: 200 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Dwayne Bowe: 60 rec
Eddie Kennison: 25 rec
Tony Gonzalez: 60 rec/1 TD
Larry Johnson: 70 rush/40 rec

Dolphins @ Texans
Trent Green/Chris Chambers/Marty Booker/David Martin
Ronnie Brown (vs. HOU)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Texans this season: Falcons
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Texans this season: Chiefs
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 20.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 28.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 3.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 12.1
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 17.6/23.5/5.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 13.3

Passing Game Thoughts: If you have been on the wrong end of Brown’s two-week domination of the fantasy world, then hopefully you can enjoy the relative comfort you should feel after the Texans bring his two-week fantasy point rampage to a halt. He may score, but if the Dolphins want to win, they would be best served doing so via the passing game. Outside of Week 3 when Houston focused more on taking away the passing game from Indy, the Texans have surrendered 539 yards and five passing TDs in two games against fantasy “stalwarts” Jake Delhomme and Joey Harrington Because the Texans have little reason to focus on anyone besides Brown in Miami’s offense, expect Green to recapture his early-season connection with Chambers again, although it has been the #2 WR that has scored the most fantasy points against the Texans lately, making Booker a worthy gamble.

Running Game Thoughts: This game will be the true test of Brown’s new brilliance. The Texans have not allowed an opposing RB to cross the stripe besides Joseph Addai – twice in Week 3 – and have not allowed a single RB to compile more than 91 total yards against them. My advice: sell high on Brown…real high. I had Brown rated quite high in the preseason, but I did a double take when I saw their fantasy playoff schedule (Week 15 and 16) against the Ravens and Patriots. If you are deep at RB behind Brown, enjoy the ride with him until the playoffs. Otherwise, see if you can’t land a top-tier RB and another player in return after two monster weeks against below-average run defenses. I expect a return to normalcy for Brown this week, but since he is apparently seeing the bulk of the carries, he will remain a solid #2 RB (if not a low-end #1) until HC Cam Cameron decides to follow through on his next whim, be it reinserting Chatman into a time-share or giving rookie Lorenzo Booker a look when Cameron decides he offers a “change of pace”.

Projections:
Trent Green: 265 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Chris Chambers: 80 rec/1 TD
Marty Booker: 65 rec/1 TD
David Martin: 20 rec
Ronnie Brown: 60 rush/40 rec
Jesse Chatman: 20 rush/15 rec

Matt Schaub/ Andre Davis/Kevin Walter/Owen Daniels
Ahman Green/Ron Dayne (vs. MIA)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Dolphins this season: Jets
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Dolphins this season: Jets
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 22.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 17.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 6.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 12.9
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 22.4/23.5/4.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 23.2

Passing Game Thoughts: I’m sure that Daniels’ owners love the newfound attention their man is receiving, but this offense – and the team in general – need their playmaker(s) back. We have discovered that Schaub was worth the investment that Houston made in him, but with out Green and Johnson, the big-play element drops off dramatically – the very thing that helped them jump out to a 2-0 start. That said, for as long as Johnson remains out, Davis remains a solid play. In fact, you could do much worse than using Davis to fill Johnson’s void while he recovers. Davis has tallied 187 receiving yards and a score in the two games Johnson has missed, numbers close to what we would have expected from a healthy AJ anyway. In fact, the Dolphins have struggled defending the opposition’s deep threat all season long. Either way, the Texans will look to exploit a shoddy run defense lacking its leader – MLB Zach Thomas – if he is unable to play again this week, but don’t let that stop you from using Schaub as a bye-week fill-in for a QB like Donovan McNabb. Daniels’ stock remains slightly up as long as Johnson sits, but he is more of a yardage threat than a scoring threat until AJ returns.

Running Game Thoughts: As mentioned above, look for Houston to pound away all day at the Dolphins’ run defense, ala the Raiders from last week, especially if Thomas misses another game. And as that gets going, figure it will be only a matter of time before Schaub opens up the play-action game. All in all, if this defense doesn’t get fixed quickly, it could be the defense you hope your RBs face come playoff time. DC Dom Capers is one of the best in the game, but age and injury appears to have caught up to his unit quicker than expected. Ahman Green figures to be a game-time decision, but whichever RB goes should be in for a very good day if the ‘Fins are minus Thomas once again. Stay tuned.

Projections:
Matt Schaub: 275 pass/2 TD/0 INT
Andre Davis: 90 rec/1 TD
Kevin Walter: 40 rec
Owen Daniels: 60 rec
Ron Dayne: 120 rush/2 TD/20 rec

Jets @ Giants
Chad Pennington/Laveranues Coles/Jerricho Cotchery
Thomas Jones (vs. NYG)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Giants this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Giants this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 21.7/18.5/11.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 20.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Where did that effort come from? DC Steve Spagnulo no doubt had an idea of what to expect from his old team, but 12 sacks in Week 4? Over the last six quarters, this defense has looked awesome – a far cry from the first 10. Now, as these two teams each play a home game at the same time, the Giants will be hard-pressed to sack Pennington even half that many times. For one, a rookie LT making his first start won’t be asked to defend DE Osi Umenyiora one-on-one all game long. Also, Pennington’s game is one of quick drop and quick release. Lastly, unlike Philly’s WRs, the Jets wideouts can beat press coverage, something that the Redskins and Eagles WRs struggle to do consistently. The bigger WRs – Terrell Owens and Donald Driver – have fared well vs. the G-Men, meaning Cotchery stands to record the finest numbers of all Jets WRs at the end of this contest.

Running Game Thoughts: Jones owners – myself included – had to be quite disappointed in his Week 4 output. We need to see more from him in the coming week or else he will risk the label of “sell him now while you can get something for him” as his schedule turns tough again after the Jets’ Week 10 bye. That time (selling him) could be now. TJ has yet to find the end zone – Leon Washington spoiled his fun last week. Perhaps his drought ends this week against the Giants, who allowed at least one RB score in each of the first three weeks and then watched Correll Buckhalter run for 100+ yards last week while they were pounding Donovan McNabb into submission. All told, the Giants’ run defense struggles don’t figure to go away anytime soon, so it may be worth your time to find out what TJ’s value on the marketplace is…after this game.

Projections:
Chad Pennington: 220 pass/2 TD/0 INT
Laveranues Coles: 80 rec
Jerricho Cotchery: 90 rec/1 TD
Thomas Jones: 90 rush/1 TD/20 rec

Eli Manning/Plaxico Burress/Amani Toomer/Jeremy Shockey
Brandon Jacobs/Derrick Ward (vs. NYJ)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Jets this season: Patriots
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Jets this season: Patriots
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 30.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 38.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 6.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 21.1
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 20.1/20.6/8.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 23.5

Passing Game Thoughts: As long as Burress continues to play on his injured ankle, look for meager yardage totals from the lanky ex-Spartan. However, Manning appears to only have eyes for Burress whenever the G-Men can sniff the end zone – much to the chagrin of Shockey owners, who were probably counting on their guy to have at least one TD by now. Toomer has been close a time or two – his defender in Week 4 was called for a penalty on what was likely to be a 50+ yard TD catch – but Ward’s Week 1 receiving score is the only TD that has landed in the hands of a receiver besides Burress. Thus, for a passing game that has been better than advertised, only one WR is worth an every-week play and he is probably playing at about 60%. The Jets are right in the middle of the pack in terms of allowing fantasy points to WRs and in the top 10 versus QBs, but given their recent struggles against the run, look for the Giants to try to bully their co-tenants around with Ward and/or Jacobs.

Running Game Thoughts: I’m not one that is easily impressed by “upstart” RBs that seemingly appear out of nowhere. The preseason may not count for much, but for those that took in a Giants game or two, they will recall that Ward stood out, much like he did all throughout the summer. Did I speculate about him in Week 1? No, but it’s questionable at that time the Giants knew what they had either. Long story short, Ward’s all-around game strikes a bit of resemblance to a poor man’s Tiki Barber – minus the breakaway speed, hence the poor man description – and he has forced his way into at least a 50-50 split of the workload behind a very good run-blocking line. Against the Jets, the Giants face a team that has been dissected by opposing rushers the past two weeks, giving up four total TDs and 290 total yards. On the season, they are allowing 23.5 fantasy points to opposing RBs, more than enough for Ward to go well over 100 total yards and Jacobs – if he suits up – or Reuben Droughns to grab a short yardage score.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 255 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Plaxico Burress: 60 rec/1 TD
Amani Toomer: 50 rec
Jeremy Shockey: 50 rec/1 TD
Brandon Jacobs: 25 rush/1 TD/20 rec
Derrick Ward: 80 rush/30 rec

Seahawks @ Steelers
Matt Hasselbeck/Deion Branch/Bobby Engram/Nate Burleson/Marcus Pollard
Shaun Alexander (vs. PIT)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season: Cardinals
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 14.9
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 12/15.7/4.9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 9.9

Passing Game Thoughts: The Steelers are far from the easiest team to pass against, but it offers less resistance than their perennially stellar run defense. After getting blanked in the season opener, Branch has scored more than 12 fantasy points in each of the next three contests. And in terms of the matchup, Branch is not like any WR the Steelers have faced. Given the Seahawks willingness to make sure he gets his touches, his owners have to play him. Meanwhile, Engram appears to be healthy for the first time in a long time and is the second-best option in this passing game. It is likely Hasselbeck will find one of them for a score, but nearly impossible to tell who that may be given Pittsburgh’s early-season track record. That said, expect a down day from every Seattle player across the board.

Running Game Thoughts: Edgerrin James’ 77-yard rushing performance in Week 4 was the best total allowed by the Steelers defense since then-Ravens RB Lewis matched that number in Week 16 last season. James also scored the first RB TD surrendered by the defense in that same amount of time. In other words, don’t expect Alexander to blow up. He is the focal point of this offense, but the Seahawks run blocking isn’t so good that it will make him the first back to eclipse the century mark since Edge did it in Week 5 of the 2005 season.

Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck: 220 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Deion Branch: 65 rec
Bobby Engram: 55 rec
Nate Burleson: 40 rec/1 TD
Marcus Pollard: 25 rec
Shaun Alexander: 70 rush

Ben Roethlisberger/Hines Ward/Santonio Holmes/Heath Miller
Willie Parker (vs. SEA)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Seahawks this season: Cardinals
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Seahawks this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 15.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 21.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 10.5/18.3/3.1
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 16.2

Passing Game Thoughts: The Steelers passing game, which has enjoyed a great deal of success this season, gets their toughest test in Week 5. Only Jacksonville and Kansas City have been more stout against fantasy QBs, meaning the Steelers will have to hope Ward returns this week so the weight of the world isn’t placed on Holmes again as it was last week. Outside of Leonard Pope’s 1-catch, 30-yard, 1-TD performance in Week 2, opposing TEs have only caught four balls for 34 yards in the other three contests, so don’t look for Miller to have a big game. This should be a grinding, physical game that is won on the ground, so the best plays are probably the defenses for both squads.

Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore performed pretty well in light of the Niners losing their starting QB on the first series of the game, compiling 121 total yards in their Week 4 setback against Seattle. That bodes well for Parker, who is the closest thing that the Seahawks have seen to Fast Willie. In the absence of a rushing attack last week vs. the Cardinals, Parker posted 29 yards receiving, something I look to see more of moving forward. FWP owners weren’t going to bench him anyway, but his totals may be slightly depressed this week – nothing like last week though – considering that Seattle is in the bottom half of the league in terms of the number of fantasy points they allow to opposing rushers.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 220 rush/1 TD/1 INT
Hines Ward: 70 rec/1 TD
Santonio Holmes: 55 rec
Heath Miller: 25 rec
Willie Parker: 85 rush/25 rec

Bucs @ Colts
Jeff Garcia/Joey Galloway/Ike Hilliard
Earnest Graham/Michael Pittman (vs. IND)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Colts this season: Broncos
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Colts this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 14.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 10.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 11.8/13.6
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 17.9

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s no surprise Garcia has stabilized the Bucs offense, what is surprising me is the lack of passing numbers he has needed to compile to do it. Rare is the time that a QB can throw two TDs in the first four games – both in the same game – of the season and lead his team to a 3-1 record. What it has done is make Galloway an inconsistent fantasy play – a #3 WR for the time being. Now understanding that the Colts will score 20+ points on just about any defense, the Bucs will need to throw the ball late, so a fourth-quarter score could make Garcia a fair play and decent bye-week option. Either way, with the defense playing so well and the chance that Marvin Harrison may be far from 100%, Garcia figures to hand the ball off and scramble a few more times once again than drop back and pass.

Running Game Thoughts: While many teams would feel obligated to focus on the passing game when their lead RB goes down, the Bucs would seem to be an exception. In the Colts, they face a team that has held up well against the run so far, until last week, that is. I look for that trend to continue this week. It’s a given that Denver’s running game is better than the Bucs’ and Graham/Pittman does not equal Travis Henry, but bear in mind that LB Rob Morris has likely been lost for the season, S Bob Sanders is hurt and that the Broncos were having great success running to the perimeter all game long. These are all things I look for the Bucs to do and/or take advantage of in Week 5. As a result, don’t look for HC Jon Gruden to deviate much from the physical gameplan his team executed to near perfection in their last game, finding a way to pound away at the Panthers 42 times.

Projections:
Jeff Garcia: 210 pass/1 TD/1 INT/20 rush
Joey Galloway: 80 rec
Ike Hilliard: 50 rec/1 TD
Earnest Graham: 80 rush/1 TD/20 rec
Michael Pittman: 50 rush/50 rec

Peyton Manning/Reggie Wayne/Aaron Moorehead/Anthony Gonzalez/Dallas Clark
Joseph Addai/Kenton Keith (vs. TB)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bucs this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bucs this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 10.7/12.2/2.3
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 20.9

Passing Game Thoughts: Owners know what to expect out of this passing game…Manning’s worst fantasy point total is 16.3 while the Bucs have yet to allow a QB to hit that mark. And about the only things we know are that Manning, Wayne and Clark will play. Possibly without Marvin Harrison and Addai, I would expect much more of the short passing game than a reliance on Keith, who is a capable fill-in – real or fantasy. Perhaps the most surprising development this far into the season is how often Manning is hooking up with his roommate, Clark. That doesn’t figure to change in this game either, with Clark likely to be the best receiving option this week. In fact, if Harrison does not suit up, look for Clark to line up in his spot from time to time.

Running Game Thoughts: Tampa Bay is allowing right at four yds/carry, a fair expectation for whichever Colts RB gets the start. Keith is built similar and shares a similar running style to Addai – he even appears to be even a little faster than Addai on the film I’ve watched – but does not have the all-around game, footwork or vision of Addai, all of which make the former Bayou Bengal a true standout. Whichever back goes, expect a modest performance against a Tampa Bay defense that gave up a garbage TD late last week to DeAngelo Williams and kept Steven Jackson out of the end zone the week before. In short, a RB score will be hard to come by in this game for the Colts, but not impossible.

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 245 rec/2 TD/0 INT
Reggie Wayne: 90 rec/1 TD
Aaron Moorehead: 30 rec
Anthony Gonzalez: 30 rec
Dallas Clark: 65 rec/1 TD
Joseph Addai/Kenton Keith: 85 rush/1 TD/25 rec

Ravens @ Niners
Steve McNair/Mark Clayton/Derrick Mason/Todd Heap
Willis McGahee (vs. SF)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Niners this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Niners this season: Cardinals
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 19.2
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 15.3/17.5/7.6
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 17.9

Passing Game Thoughts: Outside of Week 1 in which they made Matt Leinart look like the 2007 version of Matt Leinart, a defense that I had my eye on as an undervalued commodity has underperformed. Granted, losing a star pass rusher like Manny Lawson will reduce a team’s effectiveness, but Marc Bulger, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Hasselbeck have all had pretty fair games against the Niners. Whatever happens though, there is 0% chance McNair repeats his 53-pass attempt day from last Sunday. Mason has been a pleasant surprise for his owners so far, but bear in mind that the moment Clayton is able to recover from his nagging calf injury, he will likely steal the numbers Mason has been posting - in other words, a second-half stud alert. That said, don’t go crazy with expectations with Clayton either, as Mason and Heap are good enough to keep the ex-Sooner a high-end #3 WR at best – just like Mason is right now.

Running Game Thoughts: I believe I promised consistency with McGahee in July. A quarter of the way, that prediction looks solid. He registered his first 100-yard rushing performance in Week 4’s surprising loss to the Browns and had been good for over 100 total yards every week - just the type of consistency that 90% of the owners in your league are not getting from their #2 RB. Given the woeful Niners offense, every San Fran opponent has had enough opportunities to see their main RB touch the ball at least 24 times, a number McGahee should hit with ease. And since the Niners will struggle to score 10 points, I like McGahee to have his best day in a Baltimore uniform.

Projections:
Steve McNair: 190 pass/1 TD/1 INT/10 rush
Mark Clayton: 40 rec
Derrick Mason: 65 rec
Todd Heap: 40 rec/1 TD
Willis McGahee: 90 rush/1 TD/20 rec

Trent Dilfer/Darrell Jackson/Arnaz Battle
Frank Gore (vs. BAL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Ravens this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Ravens this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 18.8/27.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 9.6

Passing Game Thoughts: I’m not sure at this point that I wouldn’t rather have the Vikings passing game. This thing has gotten bad quick, with TE Vernon Davis going down first and QB Alex Smith being lost for a few games last week. Quite simply, I wouldn’t use anyone associated in this passing game – especially against Baltimore.

Running Game Thoughts: The fallout from the passing game is keeping the yardage beast that is Gore down. Considering the sad state of the passing game, Gore has been a passable low-end #1 RB so far, even if he hasn’t scored in two weeks. Although the Ravens were torched in the first half in Week 4, their run defense was once again very solid. That’s not going to change anytime soon, so expect another slow week from “The Inconvenient Truth”.

Projections:
Trent Dilfer: 160 pass/1 TD/2 INT
Darrell Jackson: 60 rec
Arnaz Battle: 40 rec
Frank Gore: 55 rush/30 rec

Chargers @ Broncos
Philip Rivers/Vincent Jackson/Buster Davis/Antonio Gates
LaDainian Tomlinson (vs. DEN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Broncos this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Broncos this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 13.9/10.8/7.9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 20.5

Passing Game Thoughts: I saw something in one of my money leagues this week I would have never expected a month ago: someone dropped Rivers after one month. (Not only that, I had the second-to-last spot in the waiver order in that league and I was able to grab him!) That’s really too bad because the struggles of this offense are due more to problems up front (the offensive line) and his schedule – Bears, Pats, Packers and Chiefs…see where those teams rank in the most important defensive categories. Only the most elite of offenses overcome those kind of defenses and rarely does a team look good against more than half of them. Don’t forget just one week ago, Rivers tossed three TDs in vs. Green Bay. In short, this unit feels like it is struggling when in reality, they need to face a weak defense to re-establish some confidence. While Denver’s defense doesn’t qualify as weak per se, their run defense has been abysmal. Of course, that means a lot of LT. And once LT gets on track, don’t be surprised if Rivers magically finds Gates and Jackson for a couple short scores.

Running Game Thoughts: I love the idea that after four weeks, LT is said to be struggling. Sure, he was a consensus #1 overall pick, but can the guy get a break? He’s coming off a career year, folks! How many players follow a career year with another one? And how many owners picking in the first round would rather LJ, Gore, Steven Jackson, Shaun Alexander and so on? Off my soapbox now, most LT owners had a vision of him finishing with 25 TD and 2,200 total yards, unfair numbers to expect for any owner that looked at his schedule. He has faced four pretty fair defenses, averaging 15 fantasy points a game. Through four games last season, LT had 59 fantasy points. This year, he has 60. In short, RELAX!!! It’s very likely it is not Tomlinson’s fault that his owners are struggling. Chances are, LT owners are stuck with an underachieving QB or WR corps. If you have any other RB – short of maybe Joseph Addai – and LT’s owner is putting him on the block, make the move. Beware of future meetings against the Ravens and Vikings but all you have to do is look at Weeks 15 and 16 to see why you should make the move – Detroit and Denver, #1 and #10 overall in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs. Now that I’ve stated the case to make the move for fantasy’s best player, let’s get to the Week 5 game. Every Bronco opponent has had a rusher run for at least 84 yards and Addai and Kenton Keith just got done running for 216 yards against Denver. I do expect this run defense to get fixed at some point – DC Jim Bates is one of the best in the game – but I’ll have to see it to believe it at this point.

Projections:
Philip Rivers: 220 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Vincent Jackson: 35 rec
Buster Davis: 30 rec
Antonio Gates: 65 rec/1 TD
LaDainian Tomlinson: 130 rush/2 TD/30 rec/1 TD

Jay Cutler/Javon Walker/Brandon Marshall
Travis Henry/Selvin Young (vs. SD)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Chargers this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Chargers this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 20.8/26.6/10.3
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 13.8

Passing Game Thoughts: After giving his owners five straight two-passing TD games to start his career, how funny is it that Cutler has followed that with five consecutive one-passing TD games. In the Bolts, the Vandy alum faces possibly his easiest matchup – secondary-wise – since Week 1. For where he was drafted, he is probably performing to the level his owners were expecting, although both his owners and HC Mike Shanahan would like to see cut down on his 4:5 TD/INT ratio. Getting Walker back will help open things up, but Marshall has definitely stepped up with or without him and is probably an every-week start in just about every 12-team, three-WR leagues. Given the struggles of the Chargers secondary, if you have a regular contributor associated with the Denver passing game, play them.

Running Game Thoughts: It took all of a month for Shanahan to claim that “Selvin Young is a starter in this league.” Obviously, that doesn’t help Henry owners from a game-by-game perspective, but it might allow Henry to make it through a full season. (Update: maybe not, if reports out of Colorado are true about Henry’s positive drug test. Obviously, a possible year-long suspension would rock the fantasy world.) Although Young did look good, Shanahan – unlike previous years – does not figure to go to the dreaded RBBC as long as Henry is in good enough shape to play (or able to play). What this means to Henry owners is that had better find a way to secure Young because, as we all know, the Bronco backfield is a yardage machine. And it looks like Cutler trusts Young’s hands in the passing game as he was already racking up a few receiving yards before Week 4’s eight-carry, 81-yard outburst. Larry Johnson was, by far, the most successful RB against the San Diego defense, but he also is the only ball-carrier so far to go over the 20-carry mark against this defense. I look for a similar approach, say 35 carries, from the Denver backfield in this game if they are able to stay within a score or two.

Projections:
Jay Cutler: 235 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Javon Walker: 90 rec/1 TD
Brandon Marshall: 75 rec/1 TD
Travis Henry/Selvin Young: 85 rush/1 TD/15 rec

Bears @ Packers
Brian Griese/Bernard Berrian/Muhsin Muhammad/Desmond Clark/Greg Olsen
Cedric Benson (vs. GB)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Packers this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Packers this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 17.1/21.6/5.6
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 15.4

Passing Game Thoughts: On the subject of things I love hearing, is there anything funnier than the weekly question HC Lovie Smith gets from the media every week? Is Rex/Brian your starting QB? (Look, if the team just needed a caretaker QB, they would have already turned to Kyle Orton.) For a lead receiver, Berrian drops too many balls. Muhammad is a shell of his Carolina Panther days. And the next time I see a Bears WR going out of their way to break up a sure interception will be the first time I have seen it this season. However, the one thing that Griese did against Detroit last week was make everybody in the passing game relevant and he was certainly more accurate than Grossman had been thus far. We’ll see if that can continue against the Packers, who have surrendered at least one passing TD in each game thus far. Big WRs have done well so far against Green Bay this season, meaning Muhammad may be in for another decent week. At TE, you could do worse than Clark until rookie Greg Olsen shows some regular contributions to the passing game and the Packers are just middle of the pack in terms of stuffing the TE. Clark makes a fine option this week for owners who are looking for a spot starter at the position.

Running Game Thoughts: It’s unfair to say Benson has been a huge letdown so far, but he has disappointing. In fact, for those risktaking owners, they may want to scoop up Adrian Peterson – his backup – who has been a bit more successful, in my opinion, than Benson has been with fewer opportunities. And before you point out that the Packers have allowed 10+ points to each RB they have faced so far, I would ask you to look at the level of talent – Brian Westbrook, Derrick Ward, LT, Adrian Peterson (MIN). Benson will struggle and may start drawing the ire of Bears fans even more after this week.

Projections:
Brian Griese: 220 pass/1 TD/2 INT
Bernard Berrian: 70 rec
Muhsin Muhammad: 55 rec/1 TD
Desmond Clark: 40 rec
Greg Olsen: 25 rec
Cedric Benson: 65 rush/10 rec

Brett Favre/Donald Driver/Greg Jennings/James Jones
Brandon Jackson/Vernand Morency (vs. CHI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bears this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bears this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 14.9/18.3/10.6
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 18

Passing Game Thoughts: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it…I guess. Hey, the Pack is 4-0 without a running game. Who thought Favre would be outproducing Jon Kitna at this point? Even with the rash of Bears’ defensive injuries, I’m just not a big fan of the ageless one this week against Chicago. While Kitna was very efficient last week, it wasn’t until the second half (and specifically the fourth quarter – much like the Cowboy game in Week 3 – that the opposition could get into the end zone against the Bears. That speaks to the Chicago offense not holding up their end, something I don’t see continuing. However, if the Packers are going to score in this game, it will be because of K Mason Crosby’s leg or Favre’s arm. And assuming the Bears can get out to a similar 13-3 lead they had over Detroit after three quarters, don’t look for another 34-point fourth-quarter collapse. The Bears have allowed just one WR – Terrell Owens – to put up 10 fantasy points on them, so if the Packers are to win, they will need to get a lot of bodies involved. Don’t expect much from any WR outside of maybe Driver – and I’d be moderately surprised to see him do all that much.

Running Game Thoughts: My goal with each of these “thoughts” is to give you one man’s idea of what is going on with each team and a synopsis of the approach I think that team will take into next week. Green Bay, unfortunately, is giving me little to work with. They are running the ball roughly 31% of the time, meaning if you have the misfortune of having a Packer back in a starting spot in your lineup, your chances of fantasy success dwindle.

Projections:
Brett Favre: 245 pass/1 TD/2 INT
Donald Driver: 75 rec
Greg Jennings: 65 rec
James Jones: 50 rec
Brandon Jackson: 35 rush/20 rec

Cowboys @ Bills
Tony Romo/Terrell Owens/Patrick Crayton/Jason Witten
Julius Jones/Marion Barber (vs. BUF)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bills this season: Patriots
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bills this season: Patriots
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 34.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 40.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 10.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 27.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 20.2/28.8/6.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 22.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Over the past two games, the Bills defense has seen all but 13 of 68 pass attempts completed by their opponents. If that kind of completion % continues on MNF, Buffalo may as well check out after three quarters. The Bills defense has also allowed five double-digit performance to the WR position, including four combined against the Broncos in Week 1 and Week 4. All this has to make one believe that despite their strong defensive performances at home, Buffalo could get torched by the Cowboys passing game. It’s fair to say that Romo-to-Owens have a similar connection to Tom Brady and Randy Moss, so the 115-yard, two-TD performance that Moss enjoyed two weeks ago against the Bills is a fair expectation for TO. Crayton – now healthy – and Witten also make top-notch plays, as every regular member of the Cowboys passing game has a shot at finding the end zone.

Running Game Thoughts: Last week, the Jets were the first team not to rush for well over 100 yards vs. the Bills. So while Barber and Jones may steal enough carries away from one another to keep the other RB’s numbers down, expect the Cowboys to enjoy a great deal of success on the ground. Last year, this would have been a game that Barber would have posted huge numbers, but this season’s braintrust would just as soon alternate Jones and Barber series to series as opposed to by situation. It makes both of them good #2 RB weekly plays, but brings down Barber’s value a bit from last season. While I expect much of the damage to be done through the air, this is a favorable matchup for both Jones and Barber, so play them with a fair amount of confidence.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 285 pass/3 TD/0 INT/30 rush
Terrell Owens: 90 rec/2 TD
Patrick Crayton: 75 rec
Jason Witten: 55 rec/1 TD
Julius Jones: 55 rush/20 rec
Marion Barber: 50 rush/1 TD/25 rec

Trent Edwards/Lee Evans/Roscoe Parrish
Marshawn Lynch (vs. DAL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cowboys this season: Dolphins, Bears
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Cowboys this season: Dolphins
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 9.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 21.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 5.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 11.1
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 14.5/24.3/4.2
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 12.9

Passing Game Thoughts: Edwards not only did well in his first start, he was quite exceptional. Completing 22-of-28 passes for 234 yards with a score and an INT, the rookie did just about all that any Evans’ owner would have expected JP Losman to do. Every #1 WR opposing Dallas so far has been targeted at least 10 times and Buffalo will need to pass to keep up in this game, meaning Evans could be in line for his best fantasy day of the year. The Cowboys pass defense has improved since the Giants absolutely torched them in Week 1, but the quality of passing games they have faced have been lacking. In fact, Buffalo’s aerial attack is at least as good right now as the Dolphins, Bears and Rams. It also would not be that much of a surprise to see Parrish flourish as well.

Running Game Thoughts: The ‘Boys have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher, but no RB has carried more than 16 times either. Lynch, on the other hand, has yet to see less than 18 rushes in a single game. If the Bills have any shot of pulling off this upset, they will need to lean on Lynch, who I have been quite impressed with. Buffalo’s game plan will have to be getting Lynch as many carries as he can handle while taking selected shots down the field to Evans. I expect Buffalo to be relatively successful doing this, but in the end, they will be forced to abandon this approach once the Cowboys gain a little bit of separation.

Projections:
Trent Edwards: 220 pass/2 TD/2 INT
Lee Evans: 85 rec/1 TD
Roscoe Parrish: 55 rec/1 TD
Marshawn Lynch: 80 rush/1 TD/30 rec