QBs: (1 pt per 25 yds passing; 6 pts for all TDs, -2 pts/INT or fumble)
RBs/WRs/TEs: (1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 6 points per TD)

Note: Teams that have a fantasy relevant TE will be included. Also, for the first weeks, projected fantasy points allowed will be used as teams have yet to establish any trends. After the first month of the season, this column will take on the look it had last season as there will be enough information to start analyzing trends.

Bye Weeks: Bears, Dolphins, Giants, Rams

ARI @ TB | CAR @ TEN | CIN @ BUF | DEN @ DET | GB @ KC | JAX @ NO | SD @ MIN
SF @ ATL WAS @ NYJ | SEA @ CLE | HOU @ OAK | NE @ IND | DAL @ PHI | BAL @ PIT

Cardinals @ Bucs
Kurt Warner/Anquan Boldin/Larry Fitzgerald
Edgerrin James (vs. TB)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bucs this season: Seahawks
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bucs this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 15.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 9.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 7.7/12.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 19.3

Passing Game Thoughts: Good news, bad news: Quinn Gray threw for a score last week against the Bucs defense last week. Conversely, it was a wonderful leaping catch by Matt Jones and it was the first QB score that Tampa Bay had allowed since Week 5 vs. Peyton Manning, the only time the Bucs have surrendered two QB TDs all season long. So while Warner may appear to be a decent bye-week fill-in for those owners rolling with Eli Manning each week, the numbers suggest you could do better. As you may have already concluded, the numbers don’t get much better for the WRs. Tampa Bay has not allowed a single WR to compile more than 82 yards receiving and has yielded just three receiving TDs to opposing WRs all season. That said, you can’t bench Boldin and Fitzgerald, but expect #2-like numbers from Fitzgerald at the very least. Boldin, on the other hand, has been rock-solid when he hasn’t been sidelined by injury. The new regime seems to favor him when the team gets close to the end zone, so expect top-notch numbers from him almost regardless of the matchup.

Running Game Thoughts: James’ owners have to like the fact that the Bucs have allowed at least one RB score in every game this season. Given that Edge is getting a solid 20-25 carries each week, it figures that James will be the best play on the Cardinals offense in this game. It also helps that with the effectiveness of the Tampa Bay pass defense, teams have had much more success running the ball against the Bucs. As a result, Edge – as has been his calling card since becoming a Cardinal – will get you steady, but not great, numbers again this week.

Projections:
Kurt Warner: 225 pass/1 TD/2 INT
Anquan Boldin: 80 rec/1 TD
Larry Fitzgerald: 90 rec
Edgerrin James: 80 rush/1 TD/15 rec

Jeff Garcia/Joey Galloway/Ike Hilliard
Earnest Graham/Michael Bennett (vs. ARI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cardinals this season: Panthers
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Cardinals this season: Panthers
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 14.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 24.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 23.6
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 8.4/15.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 22.4

Passing Game Thoughts: HC Jon Gruden knew it would not be wise to try to make a living against the Jacksonville run defense. Now before you read into the 86 pass attempts for Garcia over the past two games, let me advise you against why you should not go crazy for Garcia. Gruden saw the Lions secondary as a weakness whereas he saw the Jags pass defense as the lesser of two evils. Thus, expect more balance in this contest. In the Cardinals, the Bucs face a team that is aggressive but lacks the dominance of the Jacksonville defense. They do blitz and play a lot of man coverage and the numbers bear out that if their opponent has a decent deep threat, he will have a good game. As a result, expect Garcia to have a solid game, Galloway to have a fine game and Hilliard to return to his complimentary role.

Running Game Thoughts: The Cardinals have permitted two 100-yard rushers this year to unlikely sources (Brian Leonard, DeAngelo Williams), two players who aren’t even the regular starters for their teams. Otherwise, Arizona has stood up pretty well against some of the better rushing attacks. The only bad thing is that over the last three games, the Cardinals have allowed three of their five overall rushing TDs this season and both of the aforementioned 100-yard games. For the Bucs, Bennett scored last week but didn’t steal any more of the workload from Graham than the week before. Of course, Tampa Bay attempted 41 passes vs. 16 rushes against a tough Jags defense. Expect that to change this week, when Graham pushes 20 touches and gets into the end zone for the first time since becoming the full-time starter.

Projections:
Jeff Garcia: 200 pass/1 TD/0 INT/25 rush
Joey Galloway: 80 rec/1 TD
Ike Hilliard: 50 rec
Earnest Graham: 75 rush/1 TD/20 rec
Michael Bennett: 25 rush/20 rec

Panthers @ Titans
David Carr/Steve Smith/Drew Carter/Jeff King
DeShaun Foster/DeAngelo Williams (vs. TEN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Titans this season: Bucs
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Titans this season: Bucs
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 17.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 26.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 1.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 7.9
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.4/25.4/4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 9.4

Passing Game Thoughts: This will be short. Smith is a mid-tier #1 WR when Testaverde is in the game and will perform like a #3 WR when Carr is in the game. There is little reason to use any other player from this passing game when Carr is playing, outside of King as a bye-week filler. Outside of Houston’s amazing fourth quarter comeback in Week 7, the Titans defense has pretty much bottled up opposing WRs. So, outside of Testaverde being named the starter, it may be wise to start looking at trading Smith or severely scaling back your expectations of Smith.

Running Game Thoughts: Joseph Addai and Reggie Bush…that’s all. Those are the only two backs to score as many as 10 fantasy points against the Titans. And as Carolina keeps reinforcing, it will stick with the less-explosive, fumble-prone Foster over Williams, even if Foster has turf toe. To Foster’s credit, he received the majority of the work on the first and only Panthers TD drive against the Colts right out of the gate (18 plays, 80 yards). My problem with Foster is this: his longest run this season is 20 yard, Williams’ is 75. Is that an unfair comparison? Perhaps, but it does illustrate why Williams should be getting more work…he is the more explosive back. However, until further notice, you have to continue assuming this is Foster’s show.

Projections:
David Carr: 160 pass/0 TD/2 INT
Steve Smith: 50 rec/1 TD
Drew Carter: 30 rec
Jeff King: 30 rec
DeShaun Foster: 50 rush/20 rec
DeAngelo Williams: 30 rush/20 rec

Vince Young/Roydell Williams/Eric Moulds/Bo Scaife
LenDale White/Chris Henry (vs. CAR)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Panthers this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Panthers this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 11.1/20/2.3
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 23.7

Passing Game Thoughts: This offense is all about getting the “W”, seemingly only on the field to give the defense a chance to rest. Perhaps no other team put less emphasis on the passing game than the Titans, who with Young starting, have attempted at least 20 passes in a game only twice this season. I don’t need to tell you that with a non-featured WR in this offense, there simply aren’t enough balls to go around to make any wideout productive on a regular basis. Carolina’s offense, especially without Jake Delhomme at the helm, isn’t explosive enough to make Tennessee scrap that approach this week, so I can’t even recommend Young from this passing game in Week 9.

Running Game Thoughts: It’s much too early to say that Henry is going to take this job on a full-time basis, especially in light of what may be a pending suspension. What he is doing right now, though, is introducing a bit of sparkle into the powerful run attack spearheaded by White. White has done nothing to relinquish his share of the workload (going over 100 yards and scoring a TD in each of the last two games), but Henry has been nearly as productive fantasy-wise over that time with 40 less touches (57-17). Stash Henry if you can and see how this plays out over the next 1-2 weeks. It is quite possible in this what-have-you-done-for-me-lately fantasy world we live in, Chris Brown may start getting the dreaded “inactive” tag if Henry continues to shine. Either way, Carolina’s struggling offense has allowed each of the last three opponents to give their featured rusher at least 20 carries. As stated earlier, Tennessee has little reason to change their approach this week, so expect whichever two rushers that are active (White and Henry/Brown) to have productive days against a defense that has had issues with power running games all season long.

Projections:
Vince Young: 140 pass/1 TD/1 INT/25 rush
Roydell Williams: 50 rec
Eric Moulds: 30 rec
Bo Scaife: 20 rec
Chris Henry: 50 rush/1 TD/15 rec
LenDale White: 100 rush/1 TD/15 rec

Bengals @ Bills
Carson Palmer/Chad Johnson/TJ Houshmandzadeh
Rudi Johnson or Kenny Watson (vs. BUF)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bills this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bills this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 8.9/16.8
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 15

Passing Game Thoughts: Only this year’s elite fantasy QBs have thrown for more than one score against the Bills. The only problem with that statement is that Palmer is not playing like he is one of those “elite” this season, or at least not yet. The Bengals offense is just a different animal without suspended receiver Chris Henry on the field. With his absence combined with some offensive line shuffling up front, you have an offense that is living off its reputation more than anything right now. That will change – and this is an offense you want on your team for the fantasy playoffs – when Henry returns and the line is back healthy. The Bills, believe it or not, have allowed only one QB – Tom Brady –
to score more than 18 fantasy points against it this season, meaning Palmer isn’t all that likely to go off even though it appears (reputation-wise) to be a better matchup for him than that. Chad Johnson should return from his recent fantasy slump as the Bills have allowed a fair amount of points to the opponent’s best deep threat. Houshmandzadeh is Palmer’s most trusted option right now and should be starting without question no matter the opponent.

Running Game Thoughts: I think that once Johnson is deemed healthy enough to play, he goes back to his regular role in the offense, contrary to popular belief. However, with his play in the games Rudi has missed, Watson has hopefully provided the reason(s) that the Bengals do not need to rush Chris Perry back or need to spend more high picks on players like Kenny Irons. (Granted, not a bad pick, just one that draws a bit of scrutiny given their continual defensive struggles.) Whoever is carrying the load this week, refer to the injury report and inactive list prior to the game to see if OTs Levi Jones and Willie Anderson are playing. If they are, you can bet whichever RB is starting will be productive. The Bills run defense has gotten better statistically speaking of late, but I point to the level of competition and coincidence for that improvement than anything. Whether it is Johnson or Watson, the back that goes for the Bengals is in line for a line worthy of a low-tier #1 this week, even better than that if the bookend tackles are able to play together.

Projections:
Carson Palmer: 310 pass/2 TD/2 INT
Chad Johnson: 80 rec/1 TD
TJ Houshmandzadeh: 100 rec/1 TD
Rudi Johnson: 75 rush/1 TD/15 rec
Kenny Watson: 45 rush/25 rec

JP Losman/Lee Evans/Roscoe Parrish
Marshawn Lynch (vs. CIN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bengals this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Bengals this season: Jets
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 9.9
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 22.7/26.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 17.1

Passing Game Thoughts: Boy, I love this situation (yes, I’m being sarcastic). One week after being named the starter and nearly sending the hopes of all the remaining Evans’ owners further down than they already were, rookie QB Trent Edwards is conveniently injured in time to clear the path once again for Losman. Against an average defense with an unremarkable pass rush and average CB, Evans can be fantasy gold (witness last week). Otherwise, when the matchup is a bit tougher, Losman doesn’t have the time to hit him deep. That said – and it pains me to say this – Losman and Evans have a good matchup this week even though Losman hasn’t really played a full game since Week 2. I wouldn’t put a great deal of faith into him, but the Bengals haven’t exactly shown enough backbone to stop the opposition lately either. I’m not sure Evans matches last week’s totals (138 yards, TD), but he should a pretty fair play.

Running Game Thoughts: I’m not sure this offense is good for much more than a TD (only in Week 4 did the offense score more than one TD), but once again, the Bengals have been pretty friendly to their opponents in that regard lately. Cincy has surrendered five 100-yard games already this season and Lynch, looking for his first such game, may be in line to make it six. In fact, the Bengals have allowed a RB to hit the century mark in every road game, so unless it can jump out early on Buffalo, expect Lynch to be a workhorse yet again. The one downside to Lynch? He hasn’t averaged four yards/carry in a game since Week 1 against Denver, which we have seen is not the greatest run stopping unit. So, as much as the matchup says to be ecstatic about Lynch, expect the major fantasy points to come from the passing game.

Projections:
JP Losman: 220 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Lee Evans: 85 rec/1 TD
Roscoe Parrish: 40 rec
Marshawn Lynch: 90 rush/1 TD/25 rec

Broncos @ Lions
Jay Cutler/Brandon Marshall/Brandon Stokley/Tony Scheffler
Travis Henry/Selvin Young (vs. DET)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Lions this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Lions this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 14.4/18.5/7.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 18.1

Passing Game Thoughts: Congrats to Cutler, who threw his just the second INT-free game of his career last Monday night (and first this season). While it is easy to get on the second-year signal caller for his penchant of throwing the ball to the other team, Cutler has been a steady, unspectacular option for most of the season in fantasy. That string should continue vs. the Lions, who are allowing a mind-boggling 69.5% of the passes thrown against their defense to be completed. While they have been opportunistic (13 INTs), it appears that if the opponent is patient enough, they can carve up Detroit’s secondary. Only two QBs have scored fewer than 18.2 fantasy points against this defense, making Cutler a pretty good play this week. As one would expect, that kind of production from the QB leads to solid production from the WRs, as only two lead WRs have failed to score 10 fantasy points against the Lions. Lately, it has been the team’s “possession” WR having his way against this secondary, making Stokley as good of play as Marshall. Lastly, if an opponent has brought a fantasy-relevant TE into the game (Desmond Clark, Chris Cooley, Greg Olsen), they have generally scored.

Running Game Thoughts: Here’s what we know: When Young finally takes over this job this season, he will be a dual threat. But perhaps the better question is when that will be? In his first career start on MNF, the undrafted rookie out of Texas put up just about the same kind of numbers we would have expected from Henry (big surprise, I know). A bigger surprise might be that Detroit’s defense has surrendered just one 100-yard rusher this season (Brian Westbrook). Part of this is due to the fact that only one RB (Adrian Peterson) has recorded 20 carries. This despite allowing 4.4 yards/carry would suggest offenses are finding it much easier to attack through the air, which is only a blessing if the opponent has a defense able to score with the Lions. Denver has that kind of offense, but needs a un-Broncos 2007-like performance from its defense to make it mean anything. It’s safe to figure HC Mike Shanahan will give Henry 20 carries and Young 10 touches as long as the game is close. Given the heartbreaking nature of some of their losses, they should be close.

Projections:
Jay Cutler: 240 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Brandon Marshall: 90 rec/1 TD
Brandon Stokley: 70 rec
Tony Scheffler: 50 rec/1 TD
Travis Henry: 85 rush/10 rec

Jon Kitna/Roy Williams/Calvin Johnson/Mike Furrey/Shaun McDonald
Kevin Jones (vs. DEN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Broncos this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Broncos this season: Bills
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 15.9
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 28/32
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 13.7

Passing Game Thoughts: Denver started out the season living up to its preseason reputation, bringing its opponents’ passing games almost to a complete halt. Since Week 4, this defense has fallen on its face. Brett Favre was the first QB since then not to account for at least three TDs in a game and he made up for that by throwing for 331 yards. This is in part to having both of its top CBs, Champ Bailey and Dre Bly, playing injured, but has to do with each corner not showing the speed or anticipation that has defined their careers. (For example, on MNF, there is no way a close-to-100% Bailey gets beat deep by James Jones.) This is good news for Kitna owners, who have spent his last three games wondering when their QB is going to throw a scoring pass. It should happen here. While #1 WRs have had a bit more success than usual, it has been the #2 WR on down that has carved up the Broncos. As such, Johnson should make for a solid #2 WR-level play while McDonald and Furrey could be used as low-end #3s. Obviously, continue to use Williams, just don’t expect a whole again this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Apparently, this rush defense can only get up for the big-name fantasy RBs. The Broncos’ best efforts probably were holding LT down to 67 yards rushing and Maurice Jones-Drew to 37. With that said, the worst any lead back has done rushing yardage-wise against Denver is Fred Taylor’s 84 yards. That bodes very nicely for Jones, who just registered his first 100-yard rushing performance of the season last week vs. Chicago, when he also carried the ball a season-high 23 times. Since his return in Week 3, he has scored in all but one game. Look for the good vibes to continue in this contest as well.

Projections:
Jon Kitna: 250 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Roy Williams: 65 rec
Calvin Johnson: 60 rec/1 TD
Mike Furrey: 45 rec
Shaun McDonald: 50 rec
Kevin Jones: 100 rush/1 TD/20 rec

Packers @ Chiefs
Brett Favre/Donald Driver/Greg Jennings/James Jones/Donald Lee
Ryan Grant (vs. KC)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Chiefs this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Chiefs this season: Raiders
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 12.7
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.3/27.3/4.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 10.9

Passing Game Thoughts: One week after I thought Favre would get challenged, he should get challenged for real. Carson Palmer is the only QB to throw for two TDs against the Chiefs and while that is possible with the Packers’ attack this season, expect them to run the ball more given the success they had last week. Attacking the KC secondary has not come all that easy as only Palmer eclipsed 228 yards passing against this unit. The Chiefs have also picked off eight throws while allowing just six passing TDs. No QB that has opposed Kansas City yet this season has even hit the 20-fantsay point mark against them. In short, don’t expect a Denver-like performance from the Packers’ offense this time around. For the WRs, the most trusted WR (in this case, likely Driver) has scored in each of the past three games against the Chiefs, meaning you should continue to play the regular Green Bay receivers despite the tough matchup. Lee wasn’t able to take advantage of a juicy matchup last MNF and faces a defense this week that has yet to allow a TE score. He’ll get his share of yards, but don’t expect anything special.

Running Game Thoughts: Given the matchup, the proud new owners of Grant have to be pretty happy. With Grant being the first Packers RB to go over 100 yards this season, he was named the main man for the time being earlier in the week. What should make his owners happier is the sight of the Chiefs run defense on the schedule. While the total individual numbers look better over the last few weeks, KC is still getting gashed on the ground. Until their last game vs. the Raiders, at least one RB from each opponent before them – with a fair number of carries – averaged well over four yards/carry and/or scored. Since the worst any lead RB has done against the Chiefs is 6.9 fantasy points, it is safe to say that Grant – given a full load – should at least match that.

Projections:
Brett Favre: 225 pass/2 TD/2 INT
Donald Driver: 75 rec/1 TD
Greg Jennings: 60 rec/1 TD
James Jones: 35 rec
Donald Lee: 30 rec
Ryan Grant: 85 rush/1 TD/15 rec

Damon Huard/Dwayne Bowe/Eddie Kennison/Tony Gonzalez
Larry Johnson (vs. GB)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Packers this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Packers this season: Vikings
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 17.8
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 17.3/10.2/13.9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 12

Passing Game Thoughts: The passing game is slowly coming along and with any luck, the bye week helped the Chiefs come up with more ways to get Gonzo and Bowe the ball more often. As luck would have it, the Packers are one of the worst teams in the league defending the TE (10.6 fantasy points/game)., which should make Gonzalez owners quite happy. This alone makes Huard a serviceable play this week, but not a great play by any stretch. Even though they haven’t faced the strongest WR schedule known to man (Kevin Curtis and Plaxico Burress are the best individuals they have opposed), they have shut down the team’s best WR option and let a rather obscure one score (Jason Avant, Vincent Jackson, Sidney Rice). So while it’s possible that Bowe may hit paydirt, it would be more reasonable to expect Jeff Webb, Kennison, or Samie Parker to do it. Play Bowe if you must this week, but the numbers suggest Gonzo will be the one going crazy this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Granted, as long as LJ is in the backfield and Herman Edwards is the head coach, this will be a running team first and foremost. For this matchup, it would not be wise to expect LJ to continue his run of 100-yard rushing performances. However, only one opponent has not had a RB score at least 11.8 fantasy points in a game vs. the Green Bay defense. Since opposing rushers have scored just twice, this means the RBs are getting a lot of receiving yards, something LJ should also be able to exploit. As Johnson owners know by now, this is not 2005 or 2006 anymore, but Johnson can still put up good enough yardage totals to be a pretty decent start.

Projections:
Damon Huard: 210 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Dwayne Bowe: 50 rec
Eddie Kennison: 30 rec/1 TD
Tony Gonzalez: 80 rec/1 TD
Larry Johnson: 70 rush/35 rec

Jaguars @ Saints
Quinn Gray/Dennis Northcutt/Reggie Williams
Fred Taylor/Maurice Jones-Drew (vs. NO)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Saints this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Saints this season: Panthers
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 9
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 19.5/25.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 9.9

Passing Game Thoughts: Gray threw a nice scoring pass to Matt Jones in the end zone last week to account for the Jags’ only passing TD. However, it was quite apparent from the 16 attempts Gray had in Jacksonville’s 24-23 win over the Bucs that the Jags have no intention of handing over the whole playbook to Quinn. Expect a similar approach this week, which is really too bad because the Saints are far worse in the secondary than in the front seven these days. So, in the interest in saving time and space, I can’t find any good reason to recommend any member from this passing game, particular since Gray will be lucky to throw 20 times in this contest.

Running Game Thoughts: This game will be a great test to see just how far the Saints run defense has come. In three pre-bye games, they allowed 12 or more fantasy points to at least one rusher in each contest. In the four games since, not one RB has scored or rushed for more than 59 yards. These trends figure to get a good workout this weekend though, as the Jags will be very stubborn in hammering away with Taylor and Jones-Drew. As usual, MJD is the better play if he is in good enough shape to carry more of the load than he did last week. Jacksonville would be advised to come out of the gate quickly, as even its defense probably will not keep Brees & Co. out of the end zone all day long. It’s a pretty safe bet that Jacksonville will rush the ball at least 30 times, the most carries the New Orleans defense has faced this season. MJD is a pretty solid #2 RB play this week (assuming all is well injury-wise) and Taylor would be a solid flex play.

Projections:
Quinn Gray: 120 pass/1 TD/1 INT/15 rush
Dennis Northcutt: 40 rec
Reggie Williams: 25 rec
Fred Taylor: 55 rush/20 rec
Maurice Jones-Drew: 80 rush/1 TD/25 rec

Drew Brees/Marques Colston/Devery Henderson/David Patten/Eric Johnson
Reggie Bush (vs. JAX)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Jaguars this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Jaguars this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 17.3/19.8/8.9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 19

Passing Game Thoughts: This will be a duel of opposite approaches. The Saints would be crazy to run Bush into the Jags defense more than 15 times. Meanwhile, Jacksonville may not attempt more than 15 passes. Good news for Brees owners, one week after seeing their investment pay off like we knew he could. Only Peyton Manning accounted for two TDs against the Jags, so Brees has his work cut out for him if he hopes to put together a solid encore performance after his four-TD masterpiece against the Niners. Meanwhile, only one starting QB – Joey Harrington – has not thrown an INT against Jacksonville. There are several better starting options than Brees this week, so if you can afford to play a better matchup with a similar talent, do so. Otherwise, the thing that makes Brees fun to own in fantasy is that he is accurate. With better line protection and Colston seemingly back in the groove, the ex-Charger isn’t going to hurt you with turnovers. With Colston, however, things get a bit interesting. Since I expect him to go against CB Brian Williams the majority of the time, he could have a solid game. Whoever draws Williams figures to have a solid game, as the last five receivers who I have seen play at split end the majority of the time have either scored or went over 100 yards or both against the Jags. The numbers suggest Johnson could be a decent yardage play, but his chances of crossing the stripe are slim.

Running Game Thoughts: Since Bush assumed more of the workload in after the Saints Week 4 bye, he has yet to score less than 11.3 fantasy points in a game. On the other side, Jacksonville has allowed only Joseph Addai and Kenton Keith to hit double digits since Week 2. If Bush scores 10 or more in this game, it will be because he’s getting a lot of work in the passing game. Besides Addai’s 85 yards rushing in Week 7, no other back has rushed for more than 62 yards against this defense since Week 1. In short, expect decent #2 RB-like production from Bush, but the matchup is as tough as they come, so keep expectations fairly low.

Projections:
Drew Brees: 270 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Marques Colston: 75 rec/1 TD
Devery Henderson: 35 rec
David Patten: 65 rec
Eric Johnson: 40 rec
Reggie Bush: 45 rush/45 rec

Chargers @ Vikings
Philip Rivers/Vincent Jackson/Chris Chambers/Antonio Gates
LaDainian Tomlinson (vs. MIN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Vikings this season: Cowboys
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Vikings this season: Eagles
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 15.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 16.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 10
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 24.6
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 21.1/27/7.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 19.9

Passing Game Thoughts: The Chargers make no bones about how they want to attack in the passing game. It just so happens that the Vikings defense should accommodate them. With their strong rushing defense and cover 2 scheme, Minnesota leaves itself open to teams that can attack them through the air with their TE. Basically, any “name” TE (Tony Gonzalez, Greg Olsen, Jason Witten, for example) have compiled at least 66 yards of receiving against the Vikes. Since no TE really compares to Gates, look for the Kent St. product to push 100 yards and perhaps score the first TE touchdown vs. Minnesota. The Vikings have also given it up to bigger WRs all season long, making Jackson a sneaky #3 WR play this weekend. As one may have already concluded, you want a piece of the San Diego passing game this week and Rivers makes for a top-notch play as three of the last four QBs to face Minnesota have scored 20 or more fantasy points against them.

Running Game Thoughts: Given the fact that the Vikes have allowed three RB scores over the last two weeks, there is hope for LT to put up a pretty good fantasy number despite the fact that Minnesota is very good against the run. Marion Barber (16.5) and Brian Westbrook (21.2) have both put up nice fantasy numbers against the Vikings the last two weeks and let’s face it, you’re going to play LT anyway. However, I have a feeling that against this kind of rush defense, we may be seeing another LT-to-Gates TD pass this week.

Projections:
Philip Rivers: 240 pass/2 TD/0 INT
Vincent Jackson: 70 rec/1 TD
Chris Chambers: 50 rec/1 TD
Antonio Gates: 80 rec/1 TD
LaDainian Tomlinson: 70 rush/30 rec/1 pass TD

Tavaris Jackson/Troy Williamson/Bobby Wade/Visanthe Shiancoe
Chester Taylor/Adrian Peterson (vs. SD)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Chargers this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Chargers this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 9.2/15.5/10.3
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 12.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Until Jackson can show any degree of accuracy, Minnesota’s best hope of a passing offense may be to alternate Jackson with backup Kelly Holcomb. In essence, keep playing the raw Jackson to get him experience while complimenting Peterson’s running with a decent passing attack. With Jackson under center again this week (as is being reported), only Wade has any kind of value. If Holcomb/Brooks Bollinger get the call at the last minute, Sidney Rice and Shiancoe are reasonable plays. San Diego has struggled with bigger, physical receivers like Rice all season and it has surrendered five TE scores, so you could do worse than Shiancoe (once again, with Bollinger or Holcomb getting the start).

Running Game Thoughts: The argument can be made this game will feature the top two RB picks in next year’s drafts. Last week’s seven-point performance from AD was his first single-digit fantasy-point performance of his career and as long as the passing attack is being run by Jackson, he may put up his second such performance. That said, the Chargers have been beaten by big, power running backs (Sammy Morris, Larry Johnson) already this year, but they have not allowed a RB to score more than LJ’s 14.8 fantasy points, so be reasonable with Peterson. He’s obviously established he’s an every-week start, so play him and enjoy watching the RB show.

Projections:
Tavaris Jackson: 140 pass/0 TD/1 INT/15 rush
Troy Williamson: 35 rec
Bobby Wade: 50 rec
Visanthe Shiancoe: 20 rec
Chester Taylor: 35 rush/10 rec
Adrian Peterson: 90 rush/1 TD/25 rec

Niners @ Falcons
Alex Smith/Arnaz Battle/Ashley Lelie/Vernon Davis
Frank Gore (vs. ATL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Falcons this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Falcons this season: Giants
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 32.6
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 18.8/25.3/6.2
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 24.8

Passing Game Thoughts: The matchup last week vs. the Saints had big game written all over it and the Niners could only get Davis going despite a season-high 43 pass attempts from Smith. And while the Falcons aren’t exactly world beaters on pass defense, no QB has yet crossed the 20-fantasy point mark on them yet either. While I am well aware that the lack of QB “success” against Atlanta is in part due to the way the Falcons have defended the run, the Niners overall struggles on offense make Smith a weak play yet again. The best WR play from this bunch is Battle, but this unit needs to show some explosion before I would advise using any of them again. The Falcons have yielded just one TE score, but a fair amount of yards, meaning Davis should be good for a handful of fantasy points.

Running Game Thoughts: What a fall for the NFC’s leading rusher last season. I know many, including myself, expected a drop-off from his Norv Turner-assisted 1,695 yards rushing, but for a talented back like Gore to be stuck at 435 rushing yards almost halfway through this campaign is shocking. Granted, he has fought nagging injuries all season long, a defense that has disappointed as of late and is being asked to provide juice to a punchless offense. In Atlanta, he faces the eighth-friendliest foe vs. the run (20 fantasy points/game to the RB position), so there is some reason for hope. Gore has not rushed for 100 yards in a single game this season – he has combined for 100 yards rushing and receiving twice – but what’s worse is that he hasn’t scored since Week 2. In a game where neither team figures to pull too far away from the other, expect Gore to eclipse his season high of 20 carries.

Projections:
Alex Smith: 175 pass/1 TD/1 INT/25 rush
Arnaz Battle: 50 rec
Ashley Lelie: 40 rec
Vernon Davis: 50 rec/1 TD
Frank Gore: 90 rush/1 TD/30 rec

Joey Harrington/RoddyWhite/Michael Jenkins/Alge Crumpler??
Warrick Dunn/Jerious Norwood (vs. SF)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Niners this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Niners this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 26.6/29.8/7.3
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 19.1

Passing Game Thoughts: Steve McNair is the only starting QB not to post at least one passing TD against the Niners. As a result, owners scrambling for a bye-week filler could do worse than Harrington, who may get an opportunity to play his way back into the starting job, although that is doubtful. Regardless of who has been under center, White has emerged as a startable option and is probably a top-flight #3 WR option. As luck would have it, teams have been attacking CB Walt Harris with regularity and enjoying success doing so. CB Nate Clements also has been victimized, making Jenkins a fair play as well. However, both teams would be wise to focus on the running game in this contest. I would like Crumpler a lot more in this matchup if Leftwich was starting, but teams that have made targeting the TE a priority have gotten some yardage out of the position. (This is assuming a very questionable Crumpler can even go in Week 9.) Expect White to have another nice game, but everyone else associated with this passing game is a risky start at best.

Running Game Thoughts: Since Week 5, the Niners have been gashed in the running game, permitting an opponent’s main rusher at least four yards/carry and no fewer than 113 total yards. And given the success that smaller, quicker backs like Willie Parker and Reggie Bush had against San Fran, this matchup appears to be a decent one to play Norwood in a pinch. However, I would caution against that unless you are very desperate given the current state of the Atlanta offensive line, which has already sent two offensive tackles to the IR. If you are the type that doesn’t mind rolling the dice, every Niners opponent has had a rusher score at least 8.3 fantasy points against them, so you could do worse from a matchup standpoint.

Projections:
Joey Harrington: 240 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Roddy White: 90 rec/1 TD
Michael Jenkins: 60 rec/1 TD
Warrick Dunn: 40 rush/15 rec
Jerious Norwood: 85 rush/1 TD/15 rec

Redskins @ Jets
Jason Campbell/Santana Moss/Antwaan Randle El/Chris Cooley
Clinton Portis/Ladell Betts (vs. NYJ)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Jets this season: Ravens
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Jets this season: Bills (2)
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 20.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 6.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 15.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 13.6
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 14.1/26.2/6.3
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 22.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Every QB that has faced the Jets so far has scored at least 10 fantasy points, and that includes JP Losman’s relief effort last week. Along with that, they have allowed at least one TD pass in every game this season. That said, only Tom Brady had an exceptional game against them, in part due the inability of the run defense to stop an opposing rushing game. Given the success of opposing QBs, it has meant good things for the opposing WRs and TEs. Since no Washington WR has scored yet this season (and Cooley has five), it makes sense that the Utah St. alum will have a pretty solid day. Under normal circumstances, I would recommend playing the WRs as well, but be advised you will not likely get a TD out of them, so if you start a Washington WR, you are pressing your luck.

Running Game Thoughts: The latest installment of “what lucky RB gets to face the pitiful Jets rush defense” brings us to Portis this week. Until last week’s 8.7 fantasy point effort from Marshawn Lynch, six straight opponents featured a rusher who posted at least 13.9 points. And you can bet that Washington will start that streak back up after getting humiliated by the Patriots. New York has already allowed over 1,000 rushing yards to opposing RBs to go along with 11 combined scores, so Portis stands to prosper in this matchup. For those adventurous fantasy owners, you could do worse than plugging in Betts in hopes that the Redskins will look to pound the Jets into submission by running it 40 times. And given Portis’ brush with a hand injury last week, I have a distinct feeling it is only a matter of time before Betts sees more action.

Projections:
Jason Campbell: 210 pass/1 TD/0 INT/20 rush
Santana Moss: 50 rec
Antwaan Randle El: 50 rec
Chris Cooley: 75 rec/1 TD
Clinton Portis: 70 rush/2 TD/15 rec
Ladell Betts: 30 rush/10 rec

Kellen Clemens/Laveranues Coles??/Jerricho Cotchery
Thomas Jones (vs. WAS)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Redskins this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Redskins this season: Patriots
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 22.5
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 26/24.3
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 16.5

Passing Game Thoughts: The only thing we have to go on right now is Clemens’ start against the Ravens in Week 2 and the knowledge that he brings a stronger arm to the table than Pennington. (I’m actually a fan of Clemens’ but never really bought into the idea that Chad Pennington was the problem.) Much like his first start, the Jets did not do him any favors by sticking him against Washington, which despite its blowout loss against New England is one of the better defenses in the league. Undoubtedly, they will be angry but they will also be without CB Carlos Rogers, who tore ligaments in his knee and will miss the rest of the season. This works out well for Cotchery, who the Jets should look to match up with replacement CBs David Macklin or Fred Smoot, and will already be the likely target given Coles’ unsure status. In that Week 2 start, Clemens targeted Coles and Cotchery 11 times, with Cotchery having a huge 165-yard performance. Given that Cotchery will likely draw Rogers’ replacement the majority of the time in this contest, expect another nice game from Cotchery.

Running Game Thoughts: No way did New York expect to have just one RB score heading into Week 9. Jones has been running with more authority (and putting up better numbers) as of late, so there is reason for hope eventually. This would not be one of those games, however. Washington has yielded just three RB scores and while three RBs have combined for 100+ yards, no RB has yet rushed for that many yards against the Redskins. If you’ve had the misfortune of being forced to start TJ all season, continue to do so. Otherwise, do yourself a favor and try to secure another option quickly and if you can trade him away for something useful, do so. He’s on a bye next week and faces some of the better run defenses in the league after the Jets return to action in Week 11.

Projections:
Kellen Clemens: 230 pass/1 TD/2 INT
Laveranues Coles: ??
Jerricho Cotchery: 100 rec/1 TD
Brad Smith: 60 rec
Justin McCareins: 40 rec
Thomas Jones: 80 rush/25 rec

Seahawks @ Browns
Matt Hasselbeck/Deion Branch/Bobby Engram/DJ Hackett
Shaun Alexander (vs. CLE)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Browns this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Browns this season: Raiders
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 27.7
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 24/23.6/8.9
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 17.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Hasselbeck and the Browns defense have something in common: they have been remarkably consistent this season. For Hasselbeck, consistency has meant throwing for at least one TD in six of his seven games. In Cleveland’s case, consistency means it has surrendered at least one TD pass in all but one contest, including four games in which the starting QB has accounted for more than 28 fantasy points. (And all but one, Josh McCown, has scored at least 16 fantasy points.) That kind of production under center can only mean good things for the WRs. While Branch is still very much questionable as of now, this is one of those matchups where whatever WR is seeing a significant number of snaps is a good play. This means Hackett, in his first action since Week 1, is very much usable. This means Engram is more than usable even if Branch gets the start. And obviously, if Branch can make it to the field, expect good things from him as well. Most of the Browns games this season have been shootouts, so don’t expect to change in this game.

Running Game Thoughts: For the long-struggling Alexander owners, this has been the game many have targeted as the one where SA either starts proving he can carry his fantasy team or whether they have a more expensive Cedric Benson on their hands. After three straight weeks of 10+ fantasy points to open the season, Alexander has yet to eclipse 9.3 fantasy points since, including a dismal 3.2 showing in Week 5. HC Mike Holmgren was quick to note that Alexander is not entirely to blame for the running game’s woes, and one can only hope that during the bye week, the coach addressed the deficiencies. A good place to iron that out is in Cleveland, who has allowed a double-digit fantasy-point producer at RB in every week except Week 1. Expect a heavy concentration of the run game so long as the defense can hold up against the Browns offense.

Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck: 280 pass/3 TD/1 INT
Deion Branch: 90 rec/1 TD
Bobby Engram: 75 rec/1 TD
DJ Hackett: 65 rec/1 TD
Shaun Alexander: 85 rush/1 TD/10 rec

Derek Anderson/Braylon Edwards/Joe Jurevicius/Kellen Winslow
Jamal Lewis (vs. SEA)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Seahawks this season: Steelers
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Seahawks this season: Rams
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 14.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 12
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 10.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 9
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 10.4/18.2/6.6
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 12.1

Passing Game Thoughts: Everybody’s favorite seventh-round ex-Raven QB takes the field this week against an underrated pass defense that has permitted only one two TD game from an opposing QB. Given that Anderson has thrown for at least two scores in all but one of his starts this season has to make you believe he can repeat that trick against Seattle. It doesn’t figure to be a huge game for Anderson, as Drew Brees’ 21.8 fantasy point effort in Week 6 is the high-water mark against the Seahawks defense. At WR, the news doesn’t get a whole lot better as only three wideouts have surpassed the 10-point barrier against Seattle. That said, the last time Edwards settled for any fewer than 11 fantasy points was against the Steelers in Week 1. Like Edwards, Winslow has scored no fewer than eight fantasy points all season long – incredible production from a TE. Seeing that Heath Miller (the most talented TE to face Seattle so far) had a fair game against them, it’s safe to say Winslow should have a good deal of success again in this game. All told, the numbers say this is not a good week to play Jurevicius, but Anderson, Edwards and Winslow are too good and too involved not to be top-notch fantasy plays this week.

Running Game Thoughts: For as tough as the Seahawks pass defense has been to score on, opponents have found much more production on the ground against Seattle. Only two teams have not had at least one RB score fewer than 10 fantasy points. This fact sets up well for Lewis, who has put up steady #2 RB numbers in the five contests in which he played the majority of the game. What also hard to dismiss is Seattle’s 4.2 yards/carry allowed, compared to Lewis’ 4.7 ypc average. Speedier backs have done more against the ‘Hawks run defense, but that is little reason to turn away from Lewis this week if you need to fill your #2 RB slot. There are better matchups available for sure, but you can almost be assured that barring injury, Lewis will have at least 20 carries. That’s hard to find anymore from a NFL RB, so expect decent numbers from Lewis.

Projections:
Derek Anderson: 255 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Braylon Edwards: 110 rec/1 TD
Joe Jurevicius: 50 rec
Kellen Winslow: 80 rec/1 TD
Jamal Lewis: 80 rush/1 TD/10 rec

Texans @ Raiders
Sage Rosenfels/Andre Davis/Kevin Walter/Owen Daniels
Ahman Green/Ron Dayne (vs. OAK)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Raiders this season: Broncos
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Raiders this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 12.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 28.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 0.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 4/5.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 30.4

Passing Game Thoughts: Early in the week, Andre Johnson was going to play and Daniels was out multiple weeks with a high ankle sprain. (Now, it is the other way around…those tricky Texans!) Just like last season when it started it out slow, the Raiders pass defense has been bad news lately for fantasy QBs, holding four straight under 10 fantasy points. Now, just like last season, opponents took a few games to figure out the defense before finding the run defense much easier and safer to rush against as opposed to taking chances with Oakland’s talented DBs. As a result, it’s hard to get excited about the passing game this week, especially after it has put up 15 mediocre quarters in the last four games. Interestingly, Dwayne Bowe’s 8.4 point game vs. the Raiders was the best game by far against them over their last four games, with San Diego’s Buster Davis the next highest at three points! On the other hand, TEs have found the sledding a bit easier, as any fantasy relevant TE has scored at least 5.8 points against them. As such, expect a lot of short passes to Daniels in this game combined with a heavy dose of the running game.

Running Game Thoughts: This game should have been one of the few chances that Green was able to reward his patient owners. The worst is that his knee injury appears to be one that will bother him for at least the rest of the season. At the very best on Sunday, he splits carries with Dayne, especially if Adimchinobe Echemandu is limited or out due a thigh injury. If you have both Green and Dayne, expect this to be a true RBBC approach this week with Dayne the safer (and better) player to use. Oakland has allowed 7.8 fantasy points to a rusher from every opponent so far and surrendered a rushing TD in all but one game.

Projections:
Sage Rosenfels: 200 pass/1 TD/2 INT
Andre Davis: 55 rec
Kevin Walter: 60 rec
Owen Daniels: 60 rec
Ahman Green: 50 rush/15 rec
Ron Dayne: 50 rush/1 TD

Josh McCown/Jerry Porter/Ronald Curry/Zach Miller
LaMont Jordan/Dominic Rhodes (vs. HOU)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Texans this season: Dolphins
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Texans this season: Titans
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 6.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 10
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 1.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 31.5
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 18.7/13.5/11.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 28.1

Passing Game Thoughts: McCown has already been named the starter for this week, but who will he throw to if Curry cannot go? At home, the Houston pass defense has been pretty solid, as Peyton Manning’s 16.9 fantasy points in Week 2 was the best number posted against the Texans at Reliant Stadium. On the road, it has been a whole other story, as every single QB has scored at least 20 fantasy points against them. Does that make McCown a must-start? NO. But if you are scrambling for a bye-week starter at QB, McCown should be able to give you serviceable numbers in Week 9. And if McCown is going to be Mr. Reliable this week, it’s going to take a banged-up Curry or Porter to help him get there. Curry has established he’s the go-to option on most weeks, and this week shouldn’t be any different. Porter may provide enough yardage to take some pressure off of Curry, but the passing game’s success this week will likely boil down to how good the timing is between McCown and Curry. The numbers, despite Antonio Gates’ huge game last week vs. Houston, do not back Miller as being a good start this week. So, in short, McCown if you must and Curry.

Running Game Thoughts: The beauty and the ugliness of fantasy football can come from the intricacies that can transform great players into average ones and vice versa. The word out of Oakland is that it isn’t coincidental that Jordan’s production has dropped dramatically since Daunte Culpepper took over. With C-Pepp’s limited running ability (as the story goes), HC Lane Kiffin has elected to use him out of the shotgun more than he would care to. This carries over to Jordan, who is more of a plodding back who needs to be moving when he receives the ball as opposed to being asked to break big runs on draw plays. And it stands to reason. With Houston rolling in this week and McCown starting again, it will be interesting to see if Jordan’s struggles are personnel-related or due to what he said was the worst back injury he’s ever had. He may get relief in the form of the Texans’ run defense, which has really fallen off after a strong start. LaDainian Tomlinson’s 9.1 fantasy effort in limited action last week was the lowest point total allowed by Houston since Warrick Dunn’s 7.1 fantasy points in Week 4. And if Jordan does well this week, you would be advised to trade him as his fantasy playoff schedule is not a strong one for him. Count yourself lucky if you can get a decent #2 WR, low-end #1 WR or someone like Marshawn Lynch or Clinton Portis in return.

Projections:
Josh McCown: 210 pass/1 TD/1 INT/20 rush
Jerry Porter: 55 rec
Ronald Curry: 75 rec/1 TD
Zach Miller: 30 rec
LaMont Jordan: 80 rush/1 TD/30 rec
Dominic Rhodes: 30 rush/15 rec

Patriots @ Colts
Tom Brady/Randy Moss/Wes Welker/Donte Stallworth/Ben Watson
Laurence Maroney (vs. IND)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Colts this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Colts this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 4/5.8/4.6
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 17.1

Passing Game Thoughts: I made the mistake last week of basing New England’s numbers on weak competition while not taking into account that Washington had also not dealt with an elite passing attack (or at least the opponent was not playing at an elite level when the Redskins play them) themselves. In the Colts, New England will face the toughest defense against opposing QBs for the second straight week. Unlike the Redskins though, Indy’s cover 2 schemes will mean that New England will likely be forced to pre-2007 form if they want to be successful (i.e. spread-it-out, short passes that turn into long plays). Brady remains the top play in just about every week from now on, but this should be one of the few games in which he should not register out-of-this-world fantasy numbers. No opposing QB has scored more than Vince Young’s 18.7 fantasy points vs. the Colts this season and only Roydell Williams has put up a double-digit fantasy number at WR against Indy. Additionally, Tampa Bay’s Alex Smith is the only TE to post more than 10 fantasy points. But do keep in mind, these are the Patriots. But in going against the best cover 2 unit in the league, expect Moss and Stallworth to put up smaller-than-usual numbers. In turn, this means Welker and whoever starts between Watson and Kyle Brady should see a lot of passes in their direction.

Running Game Thoughts: I know, I know…if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. But has an offense this proficient ever had a 30:4 pass/run TD ratio? Either way, yes, I’m trying to appeal to all the Maroney owners out there who have to be wondering why at least one of the Patriots’ 34 offensive scores have not ended with their guy in the end zone. That said, I’m also not one to argue with results, either. In regards to this weekend, Indy has allowed four RB scores and just one 100-yard rusher thus far, numbers I don’t see changing a whole lot with the New England attack likely focused on throwing the ball a lot until someone figures out how to stop them. In the meantime, Maroney has become a glorified Kevin Faulk, receiving about 15 carries a game while adding about 2-3 receptions each week, at least until it gets cold and snowy in the Northeast. While it is great for consistency, that number of touches – and rarely are any of them within the red zone – does not lend itself to #1 RB numbers. Maroney may deliver 100 total yards, but don’t fool yourself into thinking he’s going to get many more.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 300 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Randy Moss: 60 rec
Donte Stallworth: 40 rec
Wes Welker: 120 rec/1 TD
Ben Watson: 40 rec/1 TD
Laurence Maroney: 80 rush/20 rec

Peyton Manning/Marvin Harrison/Reggie Wayne/Dallas Clark
Joseph Addai/Kenton Keith (vs. NE)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Patriots this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Patriots this season: Dolphins
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs:
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 12.5/14.7/8.4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 18

Passing Game Thoughts: If it weren’t for the ridiculous numbers Brady is posting, the media would likely be fixated on how Cleveland’s Derek Anderson is four passing TDs ahead of Manning, who has been only been 64% of the QB fantasy-wise that this week’s counterpart has been. However, it’s not really for a lack of trying on his part. Like the Pats, the Colts have been ahead by multiple scores in many of their games, but instead of passing the ball like the Pats have in that situation, Indy has leaned on its running game to end games. Such is the formula they hope they can have the chance to execute this week as well. But in reality, there should be the same kind of shootout their last three meetings have been with New England, with Indy scoring at least 27 points each time. CB Asante Samuel will draw Harrison, who will be on a play count if he can even go, or Clark or rookie Anthony Gonzalez. This should make Wayne the featured WR once again despite the fact that Harrison has burned the Patriots in two of their last three matchups. However, expect the Colts to continue with their bread-and-butter this season regardless of whether Harrison can go, meaning Clark and Wayne remain top five plays at their respective positions this week. Unlike Brady, count on Manning to post his usual 2007 numbers as he has displayed continued confidence checking to the running game when the situation calls for it. The good thing for Manning owners is that he should surpass the season-high 19 fantasy points Chad Pennington recorded against the Pats in Week 1 if the Colts can stick to their gameplan all game long and if New England jumps out quick, his numbers should only go up from there.

Running Game Thoughts: The Indy running game has become a fantasy juggernaut. Plug in Keith in Addai’s absence and get Addai-like numbers. Plug in Addai and get even the second-best fantasy point per game average. Through it all, every week, the Colts have featured at least one rusher that has given his owners at least 13.2 fantasy points. Addai’s 18.5 fantasy points/game average trails only Brian Westbrook’s 18.8. On the other hand, the Pats have allowed four double-digit performances to opposing RBs, meaning Indy should be willing to pound away for the better part of the day against the run defense, so long as the defense can keep the Patriots offense somewhat in check. If that happens, I feel this is one of the few games in which Keith will get enough carries to give the impression of a RBBC when in reality, it will be the Colts just attacking the Pats’ weak spot and giving Addai a breather. The New England run defense is good, but there isn’t a run defense so good in the NFL that I would even consider benching Addai against. Expect the usual from Addai.

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 300 pass/3 TD/1 INT
Marvin Harrison: ??
Reggie Wayne: 100 rec/1 TD
Anthony Gonzalez: 45 rec
Dallas Clark: 80 rec/1 TD
Joseph Addai: 85 rush/1 TD/25 rec/1 TD
Kenton Keith: 45 rush/20 rec

Cowboys @ Eagles
Tony Romo/Terrell Owens/Patrick Crayton/Jason Witten
Julius Jones/Marion Barber (vs. PHI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Eagles this season: Giants
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Eagles this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 8.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 13.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 2.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 12.3/15.4/6.7
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 12.9

Passing Game Thoughts: After a start that was rivaled by only Tom Brady’s, Romo has fallen a bit off the wayside, posting no more than 17.9 fantasy points over the last three games. As he prepares for Philly – a team that has allowed only one QB to score that many points (Jon Kitna) – it figures to be another average day for Romo. Philly’s defense is and continues to be underrated because all it has really done is hold all but one opponent (Detroit in a blowout win) to under 20 points. It has averaged over three sacks a game, but in terms of mobility, the closest thing the Eagles have seen to Romo is Jason Campbell. Suffice it to say that Dallas stands to become the second team to eclipse the 20-point threshold against Philadelphia. Only three WRs have scored at least 10 fantasy points against this defense, but two of them (Muhsin Muhammad, Roy Williams) are pretty similar in size and relatively close in strength to TO, making Owens a decent play. There’s no reason to sit Crayton if you have been using him lately, but don’t expect great numbers from him. Witten has been incredibly consistent this season (scoring more than 13 fantasy points four times) and has just one less target (63-62) than Owens. Philly has been respectable against the TE this season, but Romo will make sure to get his favorite target the ball. There’s no reason to expect anything less than double-digit fantasy points from the ex-Vol in Week 9.

Running Game Thoughts: While this remains a RBBC by definition, the new coaching has realized over the past few weeks that Barber gives the team the “personality” they want from their offense. And why not…Barber is a stubborn runner that is very hard to knock off balance and punishes defenders when he is finally brought down. Of all back, Thomas Jones is the only one to rush for 100 yards against the Eagles, something neither Barber nor Jones figures to change this week. And while the Eagles have surrendered just three 10-point fantasy games to opposing RBs, Dallas figures to get in the red zone multiple times, meaning a solid #2 RB game can be expected from Barber. Jones has really become nothing more than a bye-week filler until further notice.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 250 pass/2 TD/0 INT/25 rush
Terrell Owens: 80 rec/1 TD
Patrick Crayton: 50 rec
Jason Witten: 70 rec/1 TD
Julius Jones: 40 rush/15 rec
Marion Barber: 60 rush/1 TD/25 rec

Donovan McNabb/Kevin Curtis/Reggie Brown/LJ Smith
Brian Westbrook (vs. DAL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cowboys this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Cowboys this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 24.5/30.8/4.5
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 13.5

Passing Game Thoughts: After getting grilled in the first two weeks of the season against the pass, Dallas has kept opponents in check since (with Tom Brady’s 44-point game the only exception). However, since Rex Grossman, Marc Bulger, Trent Edwards and Tavaris Jackson don’t exactly strike fear into the hearts of defenses this year, forgive me if I’m a little skeptical about the “improvement” that has been made. McNabb, on the other hand, has delivered three consecutive games of 15 or more fantasy points since the 12-sack disaster vs. the Giants in Week 4. Bigger, faster WRs have had the most success against this defense, but they have also struggled somewhat against those wideouts with great deep speed, meaning Curtis is also a solid play once again. Brown had his second solid game in three weeks and has now moved into the usable #3 WR category as he is receiving more consistent targets each week. As for Smith, the Eagles have allowed just one TE score and no TE has scored more than 6.1 points against them, so go in another direction for a good TE play this week.

Running Game Thoughts: While several others have come close, only two RBs have hit the 10-point barrier against the Cowboys defense. Of course, they have yet to face Westbrook, who makes 100-total yard games look ordinary. Fantasy’s best point-per-game scorer at the RB position, Westbrook is coming off a 92-total yard, two-TD against the seemingly impenetrable Vikings, so Dallas could certainly be had by him as well. For what it is worth, Westbrook’s worst fantasy point total in his last three games against the Cowboys is 12.6, a fair baseline with which to set your expectation for him this week. He’s one of the few no-brainer lineup choices at RB in fantasy.

Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 245 pass/2 TD/1 INT
Kevin Curtis: 85 rec/1 TD
Reggie Brown: 70 rec
LJ Smith: 25 rec
Brian Westbrook: 70 rush/1 TD/40 rec

Ravens @ Steelers
Steve McNair/Mark Clayton/Derrick Mason/Todd Heap
Willis McGahee (vs. PIT)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season: Niners
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 15.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 18.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 7.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 21.2/22.1/6.2
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 12.6

Passing Game Thoughts: I’m really not that sure I can endorse anyone besides Mason this week, and even that is a stretch. The Steelers defense can be had in the passing game, but McNair has not exactly shown a proclivity to make any member of this passing game – including himself – a worthwhile play in fantasy. When opposing WRs have had success against Pittsburgh this season, it has been the team’s second WR that has done the most damage. So if the reports this weekend have him feeling good, he may be a wild-card pick, but once again, there are better options and much better matchups this week. Heap is questionable at best to play, and really needs to be in top shape to do much against the Steelers. Do yourself a favor and avoid this passing game this week.

Running Game Thoughts: In my many discussions with fellow fantasy owners, the general perception is that McGahee has been a bust this season. I suppose if you are in TD-only leagues, that may be the case. However, for those that play in a scoring system like the one listed in the heading, McGahee has been nothing short of Mr. Consistency, scoring more than 11 fantasy points each week. If he does that again this week on MNF, then we may really have something to write home about. Only Edgerrin James has put more than the 9.4 fantasy points Kenny Watson scored on the Steelers defense last week. Given the low-scoring affair this should be, expect McGahee to get every chance to match James’ 14.4 number back in Week 4. Baltimore knows it will need its defense and/or running game to score as the passing game is very limited again this season. I believe McGahee’s double-digit point streak comes to an end this week, but not by much. It would take a pretty solid matchup from another RB on my roster to sit the former University of Miami (FL) standout.

Projections:
Steve McNair: 175 pass/1 TD/1 INT
Mark Clayton: 50 rec
Derrick Mason: 70 rec/1 TD
Todd Heap: ??
Willis McGahee: 65 rush/25 rec

Ben Roethlisberger/Hines Ward/Santonio Holmes/Heath Miller
Willie Parker (vs. BAL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Ravens this season: N/A
Similar rushing attacks that have faced the Ravens this season: Niners
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar RBs: 9.5
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: .3/12/4
FF Points Allowed vs. RBs over the last 3 weeks: 13.7

Passing Game Thoughts: Whereas Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh has generally been limited to which team could run better against the other team’s stellar run defense or which team’s defense would score first, this season, the Steelers have a pretty fair passing game. What’s more is that the Ravens have actually been beaten a couple of times deep. What it all means is that this game does not mean that every player is a must-sit. But let’s not get crazy either, the Ravens will be aggressive and will force Big Ben into a turnover or two, so be realistic with your expectations with him. The most passing yards that Baltimore has surrendered over the last four games is 208 and they have yet to allow more than two passing TDs. Ward would usually draw CB Chris McAlister and Holmes would be covered by CB Samari Rolle, but both defenders will struggle to even make it to the field this week, meaning both Steelers automatically become pretty solid #2 WR plays. With that in mind, Miller goes from a solid outlet option to a likely extra blocker as the receivers should finish with pretty good numbers. If you have been using Miller up to this point, he will still contribute, just not likely in the way you have been accustomed to throughout the season.

Running Game Thoughts: One reason why it is easy to predict big things from Ward and Holmes is because Baltimore is on the same level as Pittsburgh in regards to its ability to stop the run. Marshawn Lynch rushed for 84 yards against them (a season-high against the Ravens), but need 27 carries to do it. No RB has even totaled 100 yards against this defense, making Parker a #2 RB this week at best. Perhaps he becomes the third RB to score against the Ravens and salvages a decent day for his owners, but don’t count on it. This is one of those matchups that you know you have to swallow when you draft FWP each year. Expect a very average game from him this week.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 215 rush/2 TD/2 INT
Hines Ward: 80 rec/1 TD
Santonio Holmes: 70 rec/1 TD
Heath Miller: 30 rec
Willie Parker: 70 rush/20 rec