A Fantasy Perspective
7/13/07
While it may be the golden age of the tight end, it’s safe
to say the position still does not get the credit it should. Tight
ends – perhaps behind only quarterbacks – must know
the playbook as well as anyone. And the only time the tight ends
gets to take a play off is when his position is not called for in
the formation. A quarterback, running back and wide receiver can
sometimes get short rests even while on the field and can
sometimes get away with missing an assignment or a read.
However, if a tight end whiffs on a block on a run play, his running
back gets hammered. If a tight end lazily runs his routes in the
pass game, the defense can turn their attention to the outside.
Finally, if a tight end stays in to block and doesn’t read
the blitz right, his quarterback pays for it.
If it sounds like I’m pleading with you to respect the
tight end, I may just be. When a team gets a great one, it is
amazing the impact that he can have. The most recent examples
are Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, who despite averaging receiving
corps at best, were able to help their respective teams to feature
two of the highest scoring offenses over the past few years. And
it has held up over time – especially recently – that
unless that his team favors a very heavy run-oriented offense
(i.e. Alge Crumpler, Todd Heap), tight ends who put good numbers
tend to lead their offenses to high-scoring seasons, sometimes
regardless of the receivers who line up with them. Think about
it though…why wouldn’t they do well? Even if a defense
double-teams a TE, how may LBs and safeties can jump up with a
6-5 TE that a defender is not allowed to contact down the field?
They present big targets and the good ones have such big hands,
it would almost be a crime not to give them a chance to end the
drive for the offense in the end zone.
At just about every position, a below-the-radar (and sometimes
undrafted) player gets “it” for a season and goes
from waiver wire hopeful to the final piece in your run for a
fantasy title. This position is no different. Last season was
a pretty fair season for the position in that regard, as Chris
Cooley, Kellen
Winslow and Desmond
Clark all emerged from late round or undrafted obscurity to
second-half starters on teams that ignored the TE position in
their draft or fell victim to the disappointment of Jason Witten.
In 2005, Heath Miller and LJ Smith were good, low-end #1 TE options.
However, with a full plate of responsibilities to learn –
just like a QB that switches
teams – TEs don’t generally have huge seasons
in their first season after a move as they spend a lot more time
thinking about their assignments than they are used to, almost
like going back to being a rookie in some respects. Unless they
are already familiar with the system or moving from run-oriented
team to a pass-heavy offense, it’s more often wiser to opt
for the player who stays put.
All that being said, there are a few TEs making the move this
season who fall under the guidelines just mentioned in the preceding
paragraph. In order of projected fantasy impact, let’s take
a look the TEs who switched teams this offseason and their chances
for fantasy success…
Randy McMichael
(From MIA to STL)
In his attempt to bring together as many members from the 2005
Miami Dolphins (signing backup QB Gus Frerotte last year and adding
backup RB Travis Minor this offseason) as possible, HC Scott Linehan
and the Rams’ front office added a third ex-Dolphin to the fold
this spring and possibly their most important former Miami player
in McMichael. Even though he was only a fourth-round selection
five years ago, most people would tell you he has underachieved
and, to a certain degree, those critics would be right because
of his incredible athleticism. However, for pretty much the first
time in his professional career, McMichael will have a very good
supporting cast AND a very accurate QB AND he will not be the
#1 or #2 option that defenses will game plan for each week.
The immediate downside to that fact is that the Rams have so
much offensive skill-position talent that he may get lost in the
mix from time to time. Nevertheless, the former Georgia Bulldog
standout had his best season under the tutelage of Linehan in
2005 (as did Chris Chambers), making possible the likelihood that
McMichael can come close to doing it again in St. Louis. At this
early stage, I look for the 28-year-old to grab around 60-65 balls
and score 5-6 times, making him well worth a starting spot each
week and a seventh-round selection in 12-team leagues. (He may
actually go lower because his value will have dipped after a poor
season, at least by his standards.) So, even though Daniel Graham
signed for the most money at the position in the offseason, I
expect McMichael to have the most fantasy numbers at the TE position
of any of the TEs that switched teams this season.
Marcus Pollard
(From DET to SEA)
This is one signing that went much more unnoticed than it should
have. Pollard is nearing the end of what has been a pretty solid
NFL career. That is not to suggest he is merely collecting a check
though. His numbers largely disappointed last season as Detroit
OC Mike Martz treats tight ends more like a necessary evil than
a viable option. (Remember, he hauled in 46 balls and three scores
in 2005 under Steve Mariucci’s watch.) Despite the depth of talent
in the Seahawks’ WR corps (even minus Darrell Jackson), QB Matt
Hasselbeck has shown he will hit a TE that he knows will hold
on to the ball. And Mike Holmgren does run one of the purest forms
of the West Coast offense, meaning if the TE will be involved.
(And one look at the Seahawks’ roster reveals Will Heller, Bennie
Joppru and Leonard Stevens…if anyone is going to catch the ball
at the position, it will be Pollard.)
Pollard is no longer worth a late mid-round pick like he was
in his heyday with the Colts, but figure he will get every one
of now-Buccaneers TE Jerramy Stevens’ two-catches-per-game average
plus some of former Seahawk Itula Mili’s receptions. As a result,
it is entirely possible for Pollard to reach 40-45 catches with
five touchdown grabs assuming he plays all 16 games. That not
only makes him draftable, but it likely makes him a viable low-end
#1 or top-end #2 fantasy TE. Just like with all late picks in
your fantasy draft, he does have a big question mark – he is 35
– so he is bound to, at some point, lose that step that he had
on linebackers and safeties his whole career.
Daniel Graham
(From NE to DEN)
To be quite honest, Graham in Mile High country made all the sense
in the world until one of their offensive assistants mentioned
he would be in line for 50-plus catches this season. The question
with Graham has never been the ability to catch that many passes,
it is more that he tends to drop way too many catchable balls
and that he tends to do it in critical situations. Pair that with
the continued maturation of second-year TE Tony Scheffler, who
showed very adept hands toward the end of the season and appeared
to be then-rookie QB Jay Cutler’s favorite receiver. When I first
discovered the Graham signing, I visualized a poor man’s version
of Shannon Sharpe and Dwayne Carswell circa 2003 with Scheffler
playing the role of Sharpe’s hard-to-guard receiving TE and Graham
in place of Carswell, living up to his reputation as one of the
league’s best blocking TEs.
But as tends to happen, money talks and young talent may have
to take a back seat for now. Graham is getting paid way too much
money – in the $6 M/season neighborhood – to serve as an extra
tackle in the run game, thus relegating both Scheffler and Graham
to #2 fantasy TE status. This is certainly one of those moves
that will benefit the Broncos much more than it will any fantasy
team. I suppose that is par for the course from one of fantasy’s
biggest enemies, head coach Mike Shanahan. Perhaps we, as fantasy
players, should take as a sign that Shanny is going easy on fantasy
owners as he is getting older, as he has seemingly cleared up
that RB merry-go-round by signing Travis Henry. Expect Scheffler
to be the more fantasy-relevant TE this season, but expect a 45-30
split at best for Scheffler-Graham, respectively, with the younger
TE more likely to fail to hit 45 than the former Patriot to come
up short of 30. Both are draftable this season as #2 TEs, but
with the number of quality options there are at TE this year,
I would pause if I had to start either one regularly whereas before
Scheffler would have merited low-end #1 fantasy TE status.
David Martin
(From GB to MIA)
Martin will be the first of two deep sleepers at this position
I will discuss that have been beset by injury. A former college
receiver, Martin has sometimes flashed the ability that you would
expect from someone with his background, but it seems as though
anytime he may be getting on a roll, he is not on the field. In
Miami, he joins a TE roster that he should easily beat out in
training camp. With new QB Trent Green quite used to finding the
TE, Martin could be one of those pleasant surprises that will
likely go undrafted in 12-team, one-starting TE leagues. However,
don’t make the mistake of looking too deep into Martin either,
as he has played a full slate of games just once in his six-year
career. And certainly don’t make the mistake of saying since Green
found Tony Gonzalez on a regular basis and HC Cam Cameron coached
Antonio Gates that Martin will be a hybrid of those two fantasy
studs. I do expect, however, for Martin to play 12-14 games and
have a 35-40 catch season, which would be a career high for him.
From a drafting perspective, let him go undrafted but be sure
to monitor his progress. It always feels great to be able to snag
that one undrafted fantasy TE that seems to pop up every year
and makes himself into a starting-worthy player.
Eric Johnson
(From SF to NO)
Most of us already know Johnson would not be moving to The Big
Easy if he could have stayed healthy in San Francisco. For a short
while as a 49er, he was the only legitimate receiving option his
quarterbacks had. Right along with David Martin, Johnson as a
Saint is probably the most intriguing under-the-radar TE prospect
to me heading into the season. For as electrifying as the New
Orleans offense was last season, it lacked a commanding, short-yardage,
sure-handed presence like Johnson in the middle of the field.
Much like McMichael and Martin before him on this list, he does
come into a situation where he will be fairly low on the pecking
order. That said, QB Drew Brees has shown no disdain for spreading
the wealth to each of his receiving options, meaning Johnson –
barring injury, always a big if – might end up being a pretty
fair fantasy backup worthy of a roster spot – if not spot starts
– along the way. If you are the type of owner who does not like
spending even a mid-round pick on a TE and would rather roll the
dice on a late-round option at the position, you could do much
worse than Johnson.
Jermaine Wiggins
(From MIN to JAX)
This was a very curious signing, in my opinion. Currently ahead
of the well-traveled Wiggins on the Jaguar depth chart is George
Wrighster and 2006 first-round draft pick Marcedes Lewis. Even
more curious was bringing in Wiggins a few months after locking
up Wrighster to a five-year contract. However, it does make sense
on a couple levels. (1) The one-year contract Wiggins signed reunites
him with the coach that he experienced his career year with, Mike
Tice, who now serves as the assistant head coach for the offense.
(2) He has long been a dependable route runner that is a solid
move-the-chains type of receiver on a team that does not have
many players who do just that. Look for him to carry that same
role with his new team. Perhaps, in the process, he will be able
to share his wisdom with his younger teammates about how to do
just that.
Kyle Brady
(From JAX to NE)
Raise your hand if you knew Brady was still in the NFL…in
all seriousness, the ninth overall pick by the Jets in the 1995
NFL Draft has carved out quite a lengthy career for himself in
this league. Since his 64-catch season with the Jaguars in 2000,
though, Brady has struggled to be fantasy-relevant. And that will
not change in New England where he won’t even the most prominent
Brady on the team. Brady, whose stats have disappointed for a
player that was picked so high, has made his professional career
by being a very good blocker, a trend that will continue with
his new surroundings as a Patriot, where he will likely fill the
Daniel Graham role in the offense. Expect very little contribution
from Brady in the passing game, considering he is the third-best
receiving option at his position on the team. Add in all the receivers
New England signed and you have enough ammunition to look elsewhere
for a sleeper TE this season.
The following are a few more notable free agent acquisitions
at tight end this offseason. However, each was brought on to their
respective teams strictly as a reserve, and you should not consider
selecting any of them on draft day, even if the players listed
ahead of them on the depth chart falls to serious injury at some
point in training camp or early in the season…
Visanthe Shiancoe (From NYG to MIN)
*I, for one, think that Shiancoe is one of those players that
people will joke about his name but who could pleasantly surprise
this season. However, the same thing that will help him –
a young QB who will look for a safe route underneath more often
than forcing it down the field – may be the same thing that
keeps him from being fantasy roster-worthy this season. Shiancoe
certainly has enough talent, but will likely end up only as a
bye-week option in 2007.
Jerramy Stevens
(From SEA to TB)
*At his best, Stevens would give fellow teammate Alex
Smith a run for his money. However, if he were at his best
more often, Seattle never would have allowed their former first-round
choice to leave in the first place. His new coach, Jon Gruden,
will be less tolerant than Mike Holmgren was, if for no other
reason, because he doesn’t have a high draft pick invested in
him. It’s a darn shame that Stevens’ head isn’t as full of possibilities
as his body is, or else fantasy owners would have yet another
TE to spend a mid-round draft choice on, knowing we could get
near Pro Bowl-type numbers out of him. So unless Stevens’ move
to Tampa matured him, it’s just as well that you don’t invest
a pick in him in your draft.
Tony Stewart (From CIN to OAK)
*The drafting of Zach Miller and the presence of Courtney
Anderson makes it highly unlikely Stewart will have any fantasy
impact this season.
Fred Wakefield (From ARI to OAK)
*The drafting of Zach Miller and the presence of Courtney Anderson
makes it highly unlikely Wakefield will have any fantasy impact
this season, if he even makes the team.
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