Ignorance Can Be Bliss - Part 2
12/3/09
Aggressiveness is a characteristic that tends to reward fantasy
owners more times than not. In the NFL, an offensive line will sometimes
hold up long enough to give the quarterback enough time to beat
man coverage down the field and make the defense look foolish against
a fierce pass rush. More often than not, though, when a defense
brings the heat and forces the action, crisis management becomes
the name of the game for the opposing team.
In that same vein, I hope to apply that same kind of pressure
to the owners in all of my leagues by beating my opponents to
the punch in regards to personnel moves. Sometimes, reaching a
conclusion about a player too quickly is much like trying to blitz
Peyton Manning – dangerous and painful. However, coming
to a correct conclusion two weeks or two minutes quicker than
your opponents is considered foresight. Fantasy owners can be
a uneasy lot, knowing that one two-or-three-game losing streak
can wreak irreparable damage to his/her team’s chances to
make a visit to the fantasy postseason. But just as it is in the
NFL and in life, it’s hard to land the big prize by playing
scared. Thus, I will strive each week to help each of you become
a smart blitzer, so to speak.
Depending on how serious you take your fantasy football teams, fantasy
owners can feel almost as bruised and battered emotionally at this
point of the season as some running backs do physically. Draft-day
visions of being the one owner in your league who would not feel
the bite of the injury bug quickly fade into the reality of counting
on a resurgent Chris
Brown to fill in as your team's RB2 spot or hoping that the
New Orleans Saints will jump out to a big enough lead each week
that Mike
Bell can approach 20 carries.
For those
of you who checked out the column last week, you already know
I've decided to spend the last two weeks of the fantasy regular
season on trying to provide each of my readers with some idea
of where all of the league's usable fantasy running backs stand
for the remainder of the season. For all the good people who didn't
read the first part of this column last week (shame on you, by
the way), I covered the first 16 teams in alphabetical order last
week and will cover the other half of the league this week. Long
story short, I've chosen to dissect each team RB situation into
four parts: what we knew before the season (Past), what we know
now (Present), what it all means going forward (Future) and what
"fantasy class" owners should expect each RB's production
to fall in for the remainder of the season (Fantasy role for the
remainder of the season).
MIA | MIN | NE
| NO | NYG | NYJ
| OAK | PHI
PIT | STL |
SD | SF | SEA | TB
| TEN | WAS
Miami Dolphins
Past: Ronnie
Brown and Ricky
Williams entered the season in a pretty even RBBC. The problem
was, very few fantasy owners knew this and - for the ones that
did - even less anticipated any lengthy contribution from the
32-year-old Williams. HC Tony Sparano made several mentions throughout
the summer about how Brown was in the best shape of his career,
so with Brown at age 27 and in his second year following ACL surgery,
the outlook appeared rosy for Brown to eventually fight off Williams
and dominate the touches on a team highly committed to running
the ball.
Did you get that memo Ricky?
Present: Williams missed the memo on how his speed was supposed
to decrease as one gets older. The ageless one initially became
a threat out of the "Wildcat" sweep play, so much so
that he started taking some of Brown's touches out of the set.
Williams even contributed more as a receiver than Brown; this
after Sparano reportedly spent a great deal of time in the offseason
figuring out ways to get Brown more involved in the passing game.
However, with nearly 40 touches/game to spread out among two backs,
the Dolphins essentially had two feature backs, so both backs
actually served their purpose well. That all changed when Brown
suffered a Lisfranc fracture in his right foot in Week 10 vs.
Tampa Bay.
Future: It goes without saying that Williams has went from fantasy
draft afterthought to top-10 RB material this season. Lex Hilliard
would step in if Williams' body can't take the additional pounding,
but he seems to be holding up well at the moment despite completing
his third game in just 14 days. The remainder of the schedule
doesn't shape up particularly well for Williams' potential fantasy
contributions (Patriots, Jaguars, Titans, Texans), but he's still
going to be almost impossible to sit simply because he's a near-lock
for 20 carries behind one of the league's best run-blocking lines.
Fantasy role for the remainder of the season: Williams (RB1 in
PPR and non-PPR)
Minnesota Vikings
After some early-season passing game contributions from Chester
Taylor, Adrian
Peterson has almost made his third-down complement an afterthought.
Peterson has already eclipsed his career high in receptions and
is one TD away from matching his career-high in rushing scores.
Along with Maurice Jones-Drew and a few other RBs that we will
get to later, Peterson is one of the handful plug-and-play RBs
in fantasy.
New England Patriots
Past: Annually one of the league's most unpredictable backfields
for fantasy owners, the Patriots appeared to have four RBs who
could each make small contributions when the season started. Fred
Taylor looked to have the upper hand over Laurence Maroney for
early-down carries while Kevin Faulk would continue his role as
one of the league's best third-down RBs. Sammy Morris was a wildcard
at first, but the Patriots cleared things up with him early on
in the season by using him mostly as a fullback.
Present: Taylor jumped out early on the competition, highlighted
by a rare 100-yard rushing performance by a Patriot RB in Week
3 vs. Atlanta. Of course, wouldn't you know that after the 33-year-old
had almost dropped his "Fragile Fred" tag from his days
with the Jaguars, he would fall victim to an ankle injury the
next week? This led to the ascension of Morris, who gave his owners
an unexpected two-week contribution before he was lost to a knee
injury. This sequence of events led the Pats to Maroney, who has
promptly shed his own labels of being "soft" and "fragile"
to score in six straight contests and emerge as the closest thing
to a feature back New England has enjoyed since Corey Dillon was
acquired several years ago. While Taylor remains out, he has not
been put on IR yet and Morris saw action for the first time in
Week 12. Faulk has remained in his usual role.
Future: Any veteran owner who has been invested in the Patriots’
backfield during the Bill Belichick era knows that nothing is
set in stone here. If Belichick has options to go to, he won't
hesitate to use them. It's safe to assume that if Maroney were
to have a two-fumble game in the near future, he would quickly
go from the penthouse to the outhouse with Morris likely being
the beneficiary. (Keep in mind that while Maroney is easily playing
his best football since his rookie year, he has fumbled in three
straight games.) In other words, Maroney's grasp on the lead-back
role may be only as firm as his ball-handling over the final few
weeks of the regular season.
Fantasy role for the remainder of the season: Maroney (RB2 in
PPR and non-PPR), Morris (RB4 in both formats), Faulk (RB4 in
both formats)
New Orleans Saints
Past: All throughout the summer,
Pierre Thomas
was skyrocketing up fantasy draft cheatsheets. In an explosive
offense and with Deuce
McAllister no longer a threat, it was only a matter of time
before the undrafted RB from Illinois would become the next big
thing. After all, Reggie
Bush had his shot at a bigger workload and didn't exactly
thrive in that role. However, a seemingly innocent preseason knee
sprain that was only supposed to sideline Thomas for about a week
kept him away from game action until Week 3 of the regular season,
opening the door wide open for Mike
Bell to become a factor.
Present: Of course, Bell promptly opened the door right back for
Thomas by sitting out three weeks with a knee sprain of his own.
Needless to say, this backfield situation hasn't exactly played
out like fantasy owners expected in the preseason. Right now,
Thomas is the safest play of the three Saints backs because he
is a: 1) more natural and durable runner than Bush and 2) a better
receiver than Bell.
Future: In most situations, the aforementioned description would
be that of a surefire fantasy starter and unquestioned lead back.
But in the Saints' offensive attack, Bush continues to a viable
play in PPR leagues despite his lack of touches because he always
seems to be put into favorable scoring positions - for his real
team as well as his fantasy owners - while Bell is worth a play
if/when New Orleans jumps out on its competition early on as he
is the team's "closer". Thus, it appears the combination
of having too many mouths to feed and the aggressive nature of
the Saints' offense will keep Thomas from becoming a huge weekly
contributor for fantasy owners. However, the very reason that
he won't be a weekly standout is the same reason he will be consistent
- there is no way a defense can play against the New Orleans’
offense and key on only or two players.
Fantasy role for the remainder of the season: Thomas (RB2 in PPR
and non-PPR), Bell (RB3 in non-PPR, RB4 in PPR), Bush (RB4 in
non-PPR, RB3 in PPR)
New York Giants
Past: Coming off a season in
which Giants RBs accounted for 2,998 total yards and 20 total
TDs, great things were expected from this backfield. Ahmad Bradshaw
was expected to step up into the role Derrick Ward so capably
manned in 2008 while Danny Ware filled in Bradshaw's old spot.
After scoring 15 TDs and crossing the 1,000-yard in just 13 games,
Brandon Jacobs was a virtual lock for another 10-TD campaign.
The only thing keeping Jacobs from being a sure-fire first-rounder
in 2009 was his propensity to get hurt and miss a few games.
What's happened to the Giants running game?
Present: If there was a RB
situation that completely went off script this season than the
Giants this season, I have no idea who else would be in the running.
Bradshaw and Ware have dealt with injuries all season long while
Jacobs has yet to miss a game. The schedule, which included four
games each against the run defense-challenged divisions of AFC
West and NFC South, figured to be easier than last season's slate
against the AFC North and NFC West. And with one of the league's
best run-blocking units (FB Madison
Hedgecock included) intact from last season and the offensive
line sporting a single game missed along its front five (RT Kareem
McKenzie sat out Week 7 vs. Arizona), it is a complete mystery
as to how or why New York has only seen a RB go over the 100-yard
mark twice and may not even get a single RB over 1,000 yards this
season. What we do know is Jacobs spent the first half of the
season running very tentative while Bradshaw's injuries have curtailed
his production of late. The Giants' defense has suffered a number
of injuries - which has forced the team to pass the ball a bit
more - but more than anything, New York doesn't look like it believes
it is a running team anymore.
Future: The good news is that
with 34 carries (and 40 total touches) over the last three weeks,
Jacobs should be plenty fresh down the stretch. The bad news is
that New York faces all three divisional foes over the next three
weeks - all good run defenses - so this team just may not find
its identity again this season. It's hard to understand how a
team so proficient at running the ball last season fell off the
map so quickly, but with its lackluster performance vs. Denver,
I don't expect the Giants to find the answers they are looking
for this year. It may cause Jacobs & Co. to slip in fantasy
drafts next fall, but for 2008, Jacobs or Bradshaw cannot be considered
automatic starts anymore.
Fantasy role for the remainder of the
season: Jacobs (RB3 in PPR and non-PPR), Bradshaw (RB3
in both formats, when healthy), Ware (RB4 in both formats, with
potential to move up to RB3 in PPR if Bradshaw cannot get healthy)
New York Jets
Past: The 2009 Jets appeared ready to emulate the 2008 Ravens
- mostly by design as new HC Rex Ryan felt the run-heavy approach
his former team took would work well with a similarly talented
stable of RBs and a rookie QB. Rookie Shonn Greene was injured
early in the preseason, setting him behind the rest of the Jets
RBs in his quest to secure the "closer" role Ryan had
in mind for him on Draft Day. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington
were slated to split carries in the beginning, but it seemed only
a matter of time before the electric Washington would overtake
the 31-year-old Jones. In fact, Jones' demise seemed to be such
a sure thing that it was only a question of when – not if
- Greene would overtake him in the lineup. As a result, the veteran
spent a fair amount of the offseason wondering if he was on the
trade block.
Present: Jones and Washington pretty much split the backfield
work right down the middle, up until Week 7 when Washington suffered
a gruesome double open fracture to his right leg on his first
carry vs. Oakland. The injury should have allowed for Greene to
move right into a split role with Jones, but a fumble in the rookie’s
next game - and ineptitude as a receiver - landed the rookie into
a strict relief role behind Jones.
Future: There's little reason to believe the current setup is
going to change anytime soon, barring an injury to Jones. The
Jets aren't good enough on offense to jump out to huge leads in
order to allow Greene to see regular work, so expect Jones to
extend his six-game streak of seeing at least 21 carries. Jones
isn’t contributing much as a receiver, but he has yet to
fumble - which means as much as anything to a defensive-oriented
coach such as Ryan. While he may see a slight decrease in carries
as the Jets are on short rest in Week 13, his next three matchups
(Bills, Bucs, Falcons) bode very well for him. However, the Colts
loom in Week 16, which may be good or bad depending on whether
or not Indianapolis has already clinched home field.
Fantasy role for the remainder of the season: Jones (RB1 in PPR
and non-PPR), Greene (RB4 in both formats)
Oakland Raiders
Past: A top-10 rushing team
a season ago, optimism was somewhat high for that part of the
offense after HC Tom Cable declared Darren
McFadden the starter late in the preseason. That hope quickly
dissipated once teams realized QB JaMarcus Russell had actually
regressed as a signal-caller and did not need to honor any part
of the passing game, even TE Zach Miller . McFadden and LG Robert
Gallery (two of the more important cogs in the Raiders' run game)
succumbed to injuries early on, essentially flatlining the slight
pulse the Oakland offense had before the injuries.
Present: With QB Bruce Gradkowski
under center, teams now have to at least some part of the passing
game. Justin
Fargas, a coaches' favorite, used McFadden's absence to move
up the RB ranks in Oakland by outperforming Michael
Bush and give the team some semblance of an offensive threat.
With Gallery and McFadden back and healthy, Oakland is just now
getting a chance to see what it has to work with...finally.
Future: There's a reason why teams like the Raiders rarely compete
with the elite teams of the league. They draft poorly more often
than not and when they do get an athlete that is also a decent
football player, they take too long in adapting their offense
to cater to his talents. The jury is still out on McFadden as
a RB - and his ability to stay healthy - but the second-year pro
made his name as an all-around talent (rushing, receiving and
passing). I obviously don't endorse a full-time move to QB, but
as someone who helped the "Wildcat" become a trendy
offensive attack, how can someone with this much talent be confined
to sharing carries with Fargas? Thanksgiving Day marked the first
time I actually saw the Raiders line up McFadden multiple times
out wide. As a result, I'm interested to see how this plays out
the rest of the season, but the Cowboys’ game may have been
the first of many steps for the Raiders offense in which they
try to identify mismatches for McFadden. It's a lot to ask for
from the Raiders’ offense, but I have to believe at some
point some coach on their staff realizes it is all right to be
creative with McFadden.
Fantasy role for the remainder of the season: Fargas (RB3 in non-PPR,
RB4 in PPR), McFadden (RB3 in both formats), Bush (RB4 at best
until Fargas and/or McFadden gets injured)
Philadelphia Eagles
Past: There didn't appear to
be much doubt about a few things in the Eagles' backfield at the
beginning of the season. Brian
Westbrook would start and be insanely productive for the 10-12
games he could stay healthy. Unlike previous years when Correll
Buckhalter was all that Philadelphia had in reserve, the Eagles
protected themselves with a second-round draft selection of LeSean
McCoy, who hypothetically would assume Westbrook's role whenever
the veteran needed to sit out. Leonard
Weaver was signed with the hope he could address the Eagles'
annual struggles in short yardage and the red zone.
Present: It took all of two weeks into the regular season for
Westbrook to miss a game due to an ankle injury, allowing McCoy
to show his wares in a Week 3 blowout win over Kansas City. Westbrook
used his two weeks off to get himself right for Week 5 and gave
his owners a vintage 141-total-yard performance in a Week 6 loss
to the Raiders. However, his season took a turn for the worse
when he suffered a concussion the next week vs. the Redskins.
The Eagles did well to hold Westbrook out two full weeks after
the incident, but another blow to the head left in Week 10 vs.
the Chargers has left his season in doubt. In his absence, McCoy
has shown himself to be a fine replacement for Westbrook, but
it is obvious the Eagles are leery about trusting him with too
much. Whether HC Andy Reid is concerned about overworking the
rookie or worried that McCoy can't be trusted in blitz pickup/short
yardage (or a combination of both), he is merely just the lead
back for the Eagles right now, not the feature back that some
owners anticipated he might be in the preseason whenever Westbrook
was forced to miss a game.
Future: Westbrook's status is still very much up in the air, but
the general consensus seems to be that he is out through at least
Week 14. There also seems to be a fair amount of belief that he
has played his last game as an Eagle. Considering his injury history,
age and contract status, it is a definite possibility. However,
regarding his status, the fact of the matter is that we simply
do not know; not enough is known about concussions to call a Grade
1 concussion a two-week injury for every player or a Grade 3 concussion
a season-ending injury for every player. As for McCoy, the Eagles
have allowed him to hit the 20-touch mark in each of the past
two weeks, so while Philadelphia doesn't quite see him as an every-down
back quite yet, he should be starting for most fantasy teams for
as long as Westbrook remains out.
Fantasy role for the remainder of the season: McCoy (RB2 in PPR
and non-PPR as long as Westbrook remains out; if Westbrook returns,
he becomes a RB3 in both formats), Westbrook (RB3 in both formats,
assuming he even returns)
Pittsburgh Steelers
Past: Long one of fantasy football's
best places to look for a dependable RB, Pittsburgh was not drawing
a lot of attention from owners this summer. While the reports
of Willie
Parker looking as fast as he did in his heyday sounded good,
something didn't quite feel right about that. Additionally, there
was very little reason to believe in Parker considering how porous
the Steelers' running game was in 2008, mostly due to an inexperienced
offensive line (in terms of playing together as a unit). Second-year
RB Rashard
Mendenhall was quickly headed down the path of being a draft
bust after a rookie season which was cut short by injury and a
supposed unwillingness to “pay the price” to be a pro runner.
This came one season after his OC, Bruce Arians, compared him
favorably to a rookie he coached as a Colts assistant years ago,
Edgerrin James.
Present: A funny thing happened on the Steelers' defense of their
Super Bowl title. Parker suffered the dreaded turf toe injury
following his best performance of the season in Week 3 vs. the
Bengals - a game in which Mendenhall was deactivated for failing
to pay attention to detail in practice among other things. This
opened the door for the second-year back to prove to his team
he was worth a first-round pick in 2008...and prove it he did.
Even though the biggest revelation of the Steelers' running game
- one that has seemingly went completely unnoticed by all the
football analysts - was the turnaround the offensive line made
in the Week 3 game vs. the Bengals, Mendenhall exploited the gaping
holes his line gave him vs. the Chargers in Week 4, running with
more determination than ever and stealing the starting job away
from Parker in the process.
Future: After landing in the doghouse early in the season, Mendenhall
has quickly built up a lot of good will with his coaches and fantasy
owners. Amazingly, he hasn't scored a rushing TD over his last
five games, but is contributing in the passing game more than
people realize and running with the same authority that he did
against San Diego. It's too early to say where he should go in
fantasy drafts next season, but it is very likely that Pittsburgh
will cut ties with Parker in the offseason and let Mendenhall
and Mewelde Moore assume the vast majority of touches in its backfield
going forward, with Mendenhall obviously serving as the featured
back.
Fantasy role for the remainder of the season: Mendenhall (RB1
in non-PPR and PPR), Parker (RB4 in both formats), Moore (RB4
in both formats)
San Diego Chargers
Past: After a long offseason
of will they/won't they with LaDainian
Tomlinson, the Chargers elected to hold onto to the best RB
in franchise history for at least one more season while placing
the franchise tag on his backup, Darren
Sproles. Shortly after Tomlinson was assured he would remain
a Charger, HC Norv Turner stated that Tomlinson was looking as
good as he had in some time and predicted 320 carries for him.
While it was unclear how Sproles would be used, it was pretty
obvious that he was looking at an expanded role, merely given
the fact he was making in excess of $6.6 M this season. Considering
how often Tomlinson was falling victim to injury, it was a smart
investment, albeit a very pricey one.
Present: It took only about a handful of carries for the investment
in Sproles to look like a good decision for the Chargers. After
making a fair fantasy contribution in Week 1, LT missed the next
two weeks with a sprained ankle, which only fanned the flames
suggesting that LT had “lost a step” and was “injury-prone”.
Since LT returned in Week 4, Sproles has seen his on-field contributions
cut drastically while Tomlinson has rediscovered a portion of
the fantasy production he used to provide his fantasy owners after
scoring seven times over the last five contests. While he isn't
as young and elusive as he used to be, Tomlinson is still quicker
than most RBs his age but is still wrongfully shouldering more
blame for the Chargers' running game woes than he should. When
two backs of the caliber of Tomlinson and Sproles are both being
held well below the league YPC average, it says volumes about
how poor the run-blocking is, even though it has improved in recent
weeks. LT's 3.4 season YPC is actually a bit better than Sproles'
3.3 YPC, which is surprising when one considers how often Sproles
is pronounced as the better RB at this point of both of their
careers.
Future: The improvement the
Chargers' offensive line has made in recent weeks has helped salvage
LT's fantasy value somewhat, even if his numbers aren't as eye-popping
as they used to be. However, that could change for the fantasy
playoffs, when San Diego faces some tough defenses in the Cowboys
(Week 14), Bengals (Week 15) and Titans (Week 16). Looking forward
to 2010, it's conceivable the Chargers could allow both LT and
Sproles to hit the market. If that scenario plays out, it would
be a shame for a team that once employed an in-his-prime LT, Michael
Turner and Sproles. One has to question how San Diego has allowed
so much talent (Drew Brees comes to mind, Shawne Merriman may
leave in the offseason as well) to leave without getting anything
but compensatory draft picks in return.
Fantasy role for the remainder of the season: Tomlinson (RB2 in
non-PPR and PPR), Sproles (RB3 in both formats)
San Francisco
49ers
Despite a strong preseason showing from rookie Glen
Coffee, there was never any real doubt that Frank
Gore would carry the full load as long as he was healthy.
The one interesting event that has transpired in this backfield
- besides Coffee filling for Gore for a two-week stretch early
in the season - is how the offense has morphed under QB Alex Smith
and how that has affected the way Gore is touching the ball. Since
Smith took over for Shaun Hill midway through Week 7, Gore has
topped 16 carries just once. However, two seven-catch games over
the last four contests has salvaged his value - especially in
PPR leagues - and has allowed the veteran to receive 22 or more
touches in three of the last four contests. Gore has a good shot
at producing monster numbers in two more games, especially Week
16 vs. Detroit. Seattle (in Week 13) also looms as a potential
blow-up game, but it should be noted the Seahawks have long been
a much better team - and defense - at home than on the road.
Seattle Seahawks
Past: Early on in the offseason,
Julius Jones
appeared to be in the same neighborhood as Cedric Benson - lower-tier
RBs who had little to no competition for touches. As any veteran
fantasy owner knows, one of the most critical aspects of determining
whether a player can have a breakout-type of season is first identifying
those players who have 20-touch/game capability. The situation
started looking even better for Jones when the team released goal-line
specialist T.J.
Duckett in the preseason. Of course, that optimism was short-lived
when the Seahawks elected to hand Duckett’s old role over to Edgerrin
James, a confusing decision for a player (James) who had long
been regarded as a weak short-yardage runner. Lo and behold, James
was released prior to Week 8.
Present: Jones made his owners feel pretty good about themselves
through three games, scoring in each contest while also contributing
in the passing game. Then, the wheels started falling off as the
competition got a bit tougher and the offensive line crumbled.
Naturally, Jones started running less confidently and the team
started showing less confidence in him as a result. (Excluding
his 5.0 YPC in Week 10 on just two carries, Jones hasn't topped
3.7 YPC since Week 3. In fact, he has been held under 3.0 YPC
in four of his last six games.) While the lung bruise that he
suffered in Week 10 was obviously very painful for Jones, the
injury gave Justin Forsett - formerly thought of as merely a third-down
back – a chance to shine. All Forsett has done since is
score in each of his three games and eclipse the 100-yard mark
twice as the primary ball-carrier. In the one game he didn't rush
for over 100 yards, he gave his owners eight catches for 80 yards.
Future: The Seahawks' RB situation has been a headache for owners
who invested in any one of their backs, but the emergence of Forsett
may be helping to clear things up a bit. HC Jim Mora insists that
Jones' job will be waiting for him when he returns, but also notes
that Forsett has earned more playing time. So while Jones may
still have a starting job, it is going to get harder and harder
for the coaching staff to ignore that Forsett is averaging a full
2.0 YPC more than Jones and is the bigger-play threat of the two
backs. It's actually hard to imagine a scenario at this point
where Jones is more valuable than Forsett and with the Seahawks
quickly headed toward another losing season; Mora may be inclined
to see if Forsett is feature-back material.
Fantasy role for the remainder of the season: Forsett (RB2 in
non-PPR and PPR as long as Jones is out; RB3 in non-PPR and RB2
in PPR when he returns), Jones (RB3 in both formats)
St. Louis Rams
Rams' RBs have combined for 1,541 total yards and four TDs -
Steven Jackson has accounted for 1,378 total yards and all of
the scores, an amazing 89% of the team’s overall production.
For my money, there isn't a player in the league who is doing
more with less than Jackson. Some RBs dominate with power, others
dominate with speed and still others dominate in the passing game
- but no other back in the league blends all three characteristics
as well as Jackson. Thanks to an offseason regimen that prepared
him for this season, Jackson is averaging a career-best 4.7 YPC
(since becoming the full-time starter) and has managed to stay
healthy this deep into a season for the first time in three years.
Jackson has been a consistent fantasy force despite a lack of
TDs in 2009, but assuming he remains committed to taking care
of himself in the offseason, he could easily emerge as fantasy's
MVP in 2010 if the Rams continue taking the necessary steps towards
respectability.
Tampa Bay Bucs
Past: This had the potential
to be one of those rare backfields where everyone's role was cut
and dried. Derrick
Ward, the Bucs' big free agent signing, was supposed to be
the lead back with Earnest
Graham serving as his short-yardage complement. Naturally,
HC Raheem Morris and OC Greg Olsen didn't see things that way
after Cadillac
Williams crashed the party midway through the preseason, prompting
the Bucs' coaches to order a 2-2-1 split of the backfield work
with Williams being named the starter. This arrangement, of course,
did not last long as Graham was needed at fullback while Ward
complemented Williams.
Present: Currently the third-least productive fantasy backfield
in PPR leagues, the Bucs have been a mess for most of the season.
They have been true to their committee approach, even if it isn't
the one that Morris pitched us at the beginning of the season.
Williams looked to be running away with lead-back duties midway
through the season, but Tampa Bay has seen Graham and Ward each
lead the team in fantasy points once over the last four weeks.
Still, Williams has accounted for five of the team's seven RB
scores, so he remains a better fantasy bet each week than either
one of his teammates.
Future: There is no reason to
expect things to change in Tampa. Williams is the only player
to see more than 14 touches in a single game and is really the
only RB that should warrant any starting consideration from owners
- and even that is a stretch. The remaining schedule isn't overly
daunting, but the Bucs' running game has been a disappointment
for much of the season. After putting up a respectable top-half
showing in 2008 behind a young and talented offensive line, the
preseason dismissal of OC Jeff Jagodzinski undermined the entire
offensive operation this season. So while the contract extension
of Olsen in November serves as a way to provide rookie QB Josh
Freeman with some sort of stability, it hardly inspires a great
deal of confidence for the future of this offense has a whole.
Fantasy role for the remainder of the season: Williams (RB3 in
non-PPR and PPR), Ward (RB4 in both formats)
Tennessee Titans
"Every Fantasy Owner's Dream"
Chris Johnson
got the offseason buzz going when he decided that he was going
solo. Rather than being known as an equal partner in Tennessee's
"Smash-and-Dash" like he was in 2008, he decided he would become
"Every Coach's Dream" in 2009. With the way things are going right
now, he may want to consider changing his nickname to "Every Fantasy
Owner's Dream". While Vince Young is rightfully receiving a large
share of the credit for the Titans' turnaround, the true reason
for Tennessee's recent play has been the complete shift in offensive
philosophy (centered on Johnson and the running game as opposed
to the more balanced attack the Titans were striving for with
Kerry Collins) and the health of the defense. While Johnson had
nothing to do with the latter, the Titans' move to Young forced
Tennessee to scale back the passing game initially and remember
what led them to their dominance last season. Since the change
at QB and philosophy, Johnson has seen at least 21 touches in
every game. More telling, however, is that Johnson has recorded
at least 26 touches in four of those five games while LenDale
White has seen his carries dwindle from 13 to 4 to 3 to 2
all the way down to zero last week when he was deactivated for
showing up late for a walk-through. Needless to say, White is
being phased out and, while he may see a token carry or two down
by the goal line, this is clearly Johnson’s show now and he may
end up being this season's fantasy MVP, if not the league MVP.
His remaining schedule is by no means soft as the Colts visit
the Titans in Week 13, but the Rams, Dolphins and Chargers have
all given huge games to running backs and running games much less
potent than Johnson and the Titans.
Washington Redskins
Past: As feature backs go in the preseason, Clinton Portis was
right there with Cedric Benson and Julius Jones - players every
owner knew would get the lion's share of their backfield's touches
but players who we figured would let us down more often than they
would help us. It didn't help that Portis was seemingly battling
injuries from the very start of the season. Further driving down
his stock was the announcement that Ladell Betts would take most
of the third-down work in an effort to preserve Portis.
Present: Already entering the season behind a questionable offensive
line, Portis somehow managed to post nearly 4.0 YPC and served
his owners as a low-end RB2, mostly because he saw many of the
team's carries early on. But Portis' injuries continued to dog
him and, little by little, the supporting cast around him fell
apart until he too was lost indefinitely due to a concussion in
Week 9. Betts performed well in relief in Week 9 and even keyed
a surprising win over the Broncos in Week 10 with another solid
performance, conjuring up images of his amazing second-half run
in 2006. However, the optimism was short-lived as Betts blew out
the ACL and MCL in his left knee in Week 11.
Future: The injuries to Portis and Betts have forced the Redskins
to turn to career special-teamer Rock Cartwright, who was being
worked in sporadically with Betts in Portis' absence. While owners
are often hesitant - for good reason - about chasing after a team's
third-string RB for their fantasy team, Cartwright is a capable
NFL RB and has been a third-stringer for most of his career because
the Redskins have generally been pretty strong at his position
over the years. It should be noted, however, that Washington's
line isn't any better now than it was when Portis was in the lineup,
so Cartwright remains a desperate play at best in fantasy.
Fantasy role for the remainder of the season: Portis (RB3 in non-PPR
and PPR, if/when he returns), Cartwright (RB3 in both formats
as long as Portis is out)
e-mail me with any questions/comments.
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