Week 1 and the Aftermath
9/17/09
Aggressiveness is a characteristic that tends to reward fantasy
owners more times than not. In the NFL, an offensive line will sometimes
hold up long enough to give the quarterback enough time to beat
man coverage down the field and make the defense look foolish against
a fierce pass rush. More often than not, though, when a defense
brings the heat and forces the action, crisis management becomes
the name of the game for the opposing team. In that same vein,
I hope to apply that same kind of pressure to the owners in all
of my leagues by beating my opponents to the punch in regards
to personnel moves. Sometimes, reaching a conclusion about a player
too quickly is much like trying to blitz Peyton Manning –
dangerous and painful. However, coming to a correct conclusion
two weeks or two minutes quicker than your opponents is considered
foresight. Fantasy owners can be a uneasy lot, knowing that one
two-or-three-game losing streak can wreak irreparable damage to
his/her team’s chances to make a visit to the fantasy postseason.
But just as it is in the NFL and in life, it’s hard to land
the big prize by playing scared. Thus, I will strive each week
to help each of you become a smart blitzer, so to speak.
More games in the NFL are lost than won.
While the validity of that cliché is in some question, we saw
several examples of this statement last weekend. In most cases,
it isn't a total team meltdown so much as it is a mind-boggling
individual miscue or two. In Carolina, it was five mistakes as
Jake Delhomme
proved that last season's playoff debacle vs. Arizona wasn't a
fluke. In Cincinnati, it was two defensive backs playing the player
(Brandon Marshall) instead of the ball in the final seconds on
Leon Hall's
leaping deflection (which he really should have attempted to knock
down instead), allowing Brandon
Stokley to catch the tipped ball effortlessly and run the
remaining 50 or so yards for the game-winning TD in a contest
that was more of an offensive struggle than a defensive showdown.
In New England, it was the Bills' Leodis
McKelvin needlessly attempting to run back a kick return against
the Patriots late in the game when Buffalo's entire "hands" team
was within 10 yards of each other on the other side of the field.
Finally, in Oakland, it was DC John Marshall's decision to go
with soft zone coverage late in the game when the Raiders' eight-in-the-box,
man-free coverage had baffled the Chargers all game long.
In the end, I would suggest the Eagles, Broncos, Patriots and
Chargers avoided defeat more than anything. On the other hand,
the Panthers, Bengals, Bills and Raiders all did their best to
snatch defeat from the jaws of victory (you read that right).
Now, understand that "avoiding defeat" isn't necessarily
a bad thing, think of it more as a survival technique in the NFL.
Sometimes, games turn on a favorable call or an inexplicable bounce,
but a team has to be in position to take advantage. Teams that
routinely avoid defeat are ones that have learned how to keep
games close enough for long enough so they can take advantage
when their fortuitous event happens.
Cedric Benson: Nothing more than 4.0 yard-per-carry-runner.
Of this weekend's losers, I think Cincinnati has the best chance
of thriving in 2009. But for the Bengals to be able to do that,
they have to drop the illusion they are a running team. Cedric
Benson looks better now than he ever did as a Bear, but I
don't think anyone - including Cincinnati's coaching staff - believes
he is anything more than a four-yard-per-carry runner. Every team
needs the threat of the run, but not every team needs to be balanced.
As long as Carson
Palmer and the WR corps are all healthy, this is a big-play
passing team. It seemed as though every time I checked on this
game last weekend, Palmer was hitting another "chunk" play (seven
of his 21 completions went for more than 15 yards). For a team
that faces Pittsburgh and Baltimore twice each season, I assure
you that it is not the threat of Benson hitting a 60-yarder up
the gut that will keep Steelers DC Dick LeBeau or Ravens DC Greg
Mattison in the film room a few extra hours during the week.
Unlike the real thing, fantasy football contests are won more
often than they are lost. In the fantasy world, we don't have
much say on whether we get to play it conservative or not, especially
after the draft is over. In other words, we don't get to sit on
a lead or change coverages once we jump out to a 20-point advantage.
After seeing how teams can lose leads in the strangest of ways
over this past weekend, maybe that’s not such a bad thing…
What Week 1 of the NFL season lacked in execution, it certainly
made up for in last-minute excitement as the games above suggest.
But as anyone who has played fantasy football for any length of
time can tell you, Week 1 tends to be about the time of year when
owners review the first round of season-ending injuries. Usually,
the focus goes to the offensive side of the ball when this occurs
because that is the side of the ball we, as fantasy owners, are
most concerned with. As luck would have it, the year I decide
to write about it, the season-enders happen to the players who
won't be putting up numbers in most fantasy leagues. No worries
though, we talk about offense, defense and special teams here,
so let's get started:
Brian Urlacher - This one stings. All offseason, I waffled on
whether I felt the Bears' defense was above-average or elite,
but my main concerns centered on the health of DT Tommie Harris,
not the MLB. Sure enough, Urlacher lasted all of one quarter.
Even most casual fans know just how much of an impact Urlacher
can have on a defense, but it isn't an exaggeration to say he
is the heart and soul of the Chicago defense, if not the entire
Bears' team. His size allows him to be a force against the run
while his speed, quickness, acceleration and smarts allow him
to be a Pro Bowl-level performer in the passing game. Hunter Hillenmeyer
steps in, but almost by default, Chicago's defense goes from potentially
fierce to merely average. I'm not suggesting I would target this
defense when sizing up fantasy matchups going forward, but I certainly
no longer would avoid it.
Shawn Andrews - Back pain
and depression wrecked Andrews' 2008 season. While the latter
doesn't appear to be an issue anymore, the former has ended his
2009 season as well. When he's right, Andrews is a road grader
who used those run-blocking talents during his first four healthy
seasons to become one of the league's best interior players. Philadelphia
now turns back to Winston Justice, this time on the right side.
It's hard for any football fan to forget what happened the last
time Justice was named a starter. (In his first career start as
a LT in 2007, Justice was repeatedly whipped by Giants DE Osi
Umenyiora for a franchise-record six sacks. To his credit,
though, the Eagles refused to help out their struggling tackle
by chipping Umenyiora or moving a TE over to his side in that
contest.) Last Sunday he gave up another sack in his second career
start, this time against Julius
Peppers. The repercussion here is that a player like TE Brent
Celek may be asked to stay in and chip or block more than
he ever would have been with a healthy Andrews. Obviously, Celek
still hauled in six passes in Week 1, so this may not be an issue
for the TE as we move forward. However, if Celek’s production
hits a lull anytime soon, it may very well be due to the fact
that Justice isn’t Andrews.
Now for a couple of shorter-term losses:
Anthony Gonzalez - (2-6 weeks; multiple sprained knee ligaments)
As a fantasy owner, I can deal with injuries that happen as a
result of contact. I can even live with injuries that occur during
the week at practice which sideline a player for that week. But
I'll be the first to admit that non-contact injuries that happen
early in games drive me absolutely crazy, for a number of reasons.
The Colts have a Week 6 bye, so look for the Colts to let him
recover over the next five weeks in order for a Week 7 return
vs. St. Louis. In the meantime, expect a rotation at the WR spot
opposite Reggie Wayne between rookie Austin Collie and Pierre
Garcon, a favorite of GM Bill Polian. Although Collie appeared
to be emerging from the preseason competition between the two,
the prevailing opinion is that he will remain in the slot while
Garcon assumes Gonzalez’s spot. With that said, I'd be hard-pressed
to start either one in three-WR leagues anytime soon. The main
fantasy beneficiaries figure to be Wayne and TE Dallas Clark.
For owners who have little-to-no WR depth behind Gonzalez, a waiver
claim for Garcon and Collie (in that order) would be prudent,
but I would strongly consider non-Colts alternatives in the interim.
Potential Free Agent Alternatives:
Bucs WR Michael
Clayton (he has supposedly been promised a larger role by
the new coaching staff and may be the best Bucs WR option as Antonio
Bryant's knee reportedly gave him enough trouble in Week 1
that he was shut down for the day), Ravens WR Mark
Clayton (the oft-injured WR is always a health risk, but at
the rate Baltimore has been airing it out in the preseason and
in Week 1, this offense may actually support a startable fantasy
TE and two WRs), Titans WRs Justin
Gage and Nate
Washington (I realize neither player should be unemployed
in all that many leagues, but I was surprised to see both are
readily available in many leagues; the Titans will pass more and
both WRs are talented wideouts who, along with rookie TE Jared
Cook, should benefit), Vikings WR Sidney
Rice (Brett Favre twice threw to the former Gamecock in the
end zone, indicating the two may have some chemistry when it matters
most).
Donovan McNabb: His rib injury will give
fantasy owners fits in the short-term.
Donovan
McNabb - (Week-to-week; fractured rib) Just like Kurt Warner,
I suppose we (as fantasy owners) should have felt fortunate to
get one full 16-game season out of both players last season. On
what appeared to be a seemingly harmless dive into the end zone,
McNabb joined the walking wounded when he was landed on by an
oncoming Panthers defender. While it would be foolish to ever
count McNabb out of any game, I'd say it's a fairly good bet he
misses Week 2, if not Week 3, before a Week 4 bye. With that said,
I'm sure the competitor that lies within McNabb will want to match
wits with Drew Brees this week. Unlike Gonzalez, this injury will
be more of a short-term nuisance than a longer-term concern for
McNabb and his owners.
Potential Free Agent Alternatives:
Eagles backup QB Kevin Kolb (for obvious reasons), Redskins QB
Jason Campbell (as matchups go, it doesn't get much better than
the Rams right now), Titans QB Kerry Collins (this week's opponent,
the Texans, appeared clueless at times on defense against what
was a scaled-down Jets' passing game)
Don't Hit The Panic Switch Just Yet
One of the age-old traditions that makes me laugh, cry and ponder
my very existence on this fantasy football planet is the ritual
of overreacting to Week 1. While I believe the time between Week
1 and Week 2 is the best time to make impact free agent/waiver
wire pickups, bailing on your team’s “foundation”
players too early is a good way to land in the cellar by midseason.
LaDainian
Tomlinson - I've already seen and heard a number of analysts
suggest that the Chargers are RBBC and that LT is closer to 50
than 30. With all the negative pub I’ve read about him over the
last couple days, it is almost as if people expect (and want)
him to fail. I can’t remember the last time such a great player
has received such hatred from the fantasy community. Did LT have
the look of a disgruntled back at the end of Monday's game that
was seeing his work slowly taken away from him? I didn't see it.
Is Darren
Sproles more explosive? Sure he is, just as Sproles is more
explosive than just about any RB in the NFL. However, I seem to
remember a number of fantasy "experts" suggest the Chargers were
RBBC in 2006 (when Michael
Turner was getting worked in earlier in games) and all LT
did was set all kinds of scoring records that year. Look, LT is
not 26 or 27 anymore and San Diego's O-line isn't what it used
to be, but let's just say right now I'm much more concerned about
LT having a high-ankle sprain or handing over third-down duties
to Sproles than I am about Sproles forging himself into a time-share
role with Tomlinson. LT received the first four carries before
injuring his ankle and fumbling for the first time in 993 touches
on the last of those rush attempts. On that same ankle, Tomlinson
promptly outgained Sproles on the ground from that point on with
the same number of carries (9): 45-23. That's five yards/carry
on a bad wheel, some of which came with two injured starting linemen.
(Trust me, I'm not hanging on to the memory of LT because he
has won me all kinds of fantasy titles because I honestly can't
ever remember winning a championship with him on my team!) What
I think we can say is that HC Norv Turner wants Sproles to be
the third-down back, which means we could see a dramatic decrease
in LT's PPR appeal, but then again, I don't think many of us were
expecting another season for the ages from LT either. If handing
over third-down work and the occasional series qualifies as a
time-share, than so be it. What I don't mind is if owners want
to bench him for upcoming games vs. Baltimore and Pittsburgh in
Weeks 2 and 4 if they have two other RB2 options with solid matchups.
I like LT, but as we've already learned, it isn't 2006 anymore
and I would think long and hard before playing ANY RB against
those defenses, especially on a gimpy ankle. But to write off
LT when he all of four healthy carries is a bit over the top in
my opinion.
Ronnie Brown - Just like any number of Brown owners, I feel wronged
after one week. But I've noticed over Brown's career is that his
preseason seems to last a couple of games longer than most everybody
else's does. Of the nine Week 1 and Week 2 games he has played
in his five-year career, Sunday's 43 yards qualified as the third-best
rushing total he has posted! Then, inexplicably, in Week 3, he
turns it on (90 rushing yards is his worst performance in any
Week 3 with the other three games all going over 100) and he generally
remains a productive back thereafter. I'm aware the two-week notion
could be a statistical anomaly, but as any fan of LT will tell
you that even in his best seasons, Tomlinson also was a bit slow
out of the gate.
Lance Moore
- There's a certain misnomer about possession-type receivers,
the notion being they are always needed. Moore is going to be
"needed" a lot this season by Drew Brees, but after a bit of reflection,
what reason did Brees have to throw it short when the Lions were
getting next-to-no rush against him? Upcoming games against aggressive
defenses like the Eagles (Week 2) and Jets (Week 4) should be
more telling as to whether Moore is going to lose targets to the
likes of Devery
Henderson and Robert
Meachem going forward. For now, I'll bet that I'm right on
this one and the WR that Brees called "my Marvin Harrison" and
"a big part of what we do" last month will end up with a fairly
nice stat line at the end of the 2009 season.
This Could Be The Start Of Something (Not So)
Beautiful
While I believe the above players are in no immediate danger
of seeing their fantasy value nosedive, there are players who
have given us reason to believe that it may be time to calmly
offer their services around the league to make sure we can get
something of value in return before it is too late.
Kurt Warner - We can blame Warner's lackluster Week 1 on a number
of things, including an inspired Niners' defense or Anquan Boldin's
hamstring problem. But the mere fact he couldn't find Larry Fitzgerald
until late in the first half and consistently found Tim Hightower
(12 of Warner's 26 completions went his way) instead suggests
a deeper issue - the issue being either he doesn't trust his surgerically-repaired
hip...or he can't trust it. We all knew Warner was an injury risk
entering the season and Week 1 did little to convince us otherwise.
If you can find an owner or two in your league that will pay for
the 2008 version of Warner, consider moving him for a healthier,
younger option or, at the very least, ensure that Matt Leinart
is resting comfortable on your team's bench. I have a bad feeling
this is a situation (with Warner) that will see more lows than
highs in 2009.
Pierre
Thomas - Some guys can't buy a break. For his first two years,
Thomas was stuck behind fan favorite Deuce
McAllister and PPR dymano Reggie
Bush on the Saints' depth chart, only to show how explosive
he was at the end of each season when given the chance. This year,
finally, was going to be the season where Thomas announced his
arrival as a top-flight RB. However, a preseason knee injury that
appeared to be pretty minor opened the door for Mike
Bell, who now becomes a pretty big drain on the potential
fantasy value of Thomas. I don't believe Thomas will be a dud
by any stretch of the imagination, but trying to pin down when
HC Sean Payton will elect to feature Bell or Thomas as his main
rusher may become a chore. IF Thomas gets the start in Week 2
vs. Philadelphia, it would be good for his long-term fantasy stock
if he started fast or Payton may feel the need to rotate his backs
for the foreseeable future.
Willie Parker: Is a hamstring injury or
a bad O-line to blame?
Willie
Parker - Preseason reports had FWP looking as fast as ever.
The offensive line was going to improve its play over last year
based primarily on the fact that it was entering its second season
together. While the Titans figure to remain one of the league's
better defenses, the Steelers struggled mightily to get anything
going last Thursday, even though Tennessee rarely blitzed or loaded
up the box to stop the run. Instead, the Titans lined up in between
the offensive line's splits and Pittsburgh appeared powerless
to move them out of the way. For now, Parker is blaming a hamstring
injury and a lack of preseason work for his Week 1 struggles,
but I have yet to see a back thrive in a game where the line fails
to open holes or blow defenders off the ball. It's the same phenomenon
that is making Rashard
Mendenhall a useless fantasy RB as well right now. Because
he's as much of a feature back as there is in the NFL anymore,
Parker is never too far away from becoming a recommended fantasy
starter again, but offensive line play is not something that drastically
improves in a week or two.
Sometimes The Door To A Bandwagon Should Be
A Revolving One
Owners are often quick to believe that a stellar Week 1 performance
from a player that has overcome some degree of adversity may be
a sign of things to come. While these occurrences can happen,
I would caution not to buy too heavily into these players quite
yet.
Tony Romo - I think we'll find out pretty quickly how "Romo-friendly"
this offense got in the offseason. Anyone who has followed my
offseason columns will remember that I thought Tampa Bay would
struggle vs. the pass (the long ball in particular) than it ever
did under former DC Monte Kiffin because the Bucs ditched the
"Tampa 2" for a more aggressive, man-coverage scheme,
something that Tampa Bay doesn't have the personnel for quite
yet. And sure enough, I believe each of Romo's three scores in
Week 1 were of the long-ball variety. This week's opponent, the
Giants, should give us a much better barometer as to just how
much better this offense is without Terrell Owens. Looking a bit
ahead, Carolina, Denver and Kansas City should give Romo ample
opportunity to pad his stats, but after that, I'm not sure I would
want to count on him for too much. Honestly, I don't see a matchup
after the Cowboys' Week 6 bye that strikes me as an overly favorable
one, so feel free to trade up from Romo in about a month after
Romo has finished running the Panthers, Broncos and Chiefs ragged.
Nate Burleson - The former Viking is poised to have a much better
season than he did in 2008, which came to a screeching halt due
to a knee injury after a nice start in Week 1. But I believe all
we saw in Week 1 was the first of many instances in which the
Rams defense will make a receiver look just a bit better than
he is. Most athletes don't regain their "normal" athletic
form until the second year after suffering an ACL injury. So while
Burleson was lucky in the sense that he suffered his injury right
at the start of last season, it would be foolish to believe that
he will debunk conventional medical wisdom and enjoy a much more
speedy recovery than just about every other player that has undergone
ACL surgery.
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