| Week 1 and the Aftermath
 9/17/09
 
 Aggressiveness is a characteristic that tends to reward fantasy 
              owners more times than not. In the NFL, an offensive line will sometimes 
              hold up long enough to give the quarterback enough time to beat 
              man coverage down the field and make the defense look foolish against 
              a fierce pass rush. More often than not, though, when a defense 
              brings the heat and forces the action, crisis management becomes 
              the name of the game for the opposing team.
 In that same vein, 
                I hope to apply that same kind of pressure to the owners in all 
                of my leagues by beating my opponents to the punch in regards 
                to personnel moves. Sometimes, reaching a conclusion about a player 
                too quickly is much like trying to blitz Peyton Manning – 
                dangerous and painful. However, coming to a correct conclusion 
                two weeks or two minutes quicker than your opponents is considered 
                foresight. Fantasy owners can be a uneasy lot, knowing that one 
                two-or-three-game losing streak can wreak irreparable damage to 
                his/her team’s chances to make a visit to the fantasy postseason. 
                But just as it is in the NFL and in life, it’s hard to land 
                the big prize by playing scared. Thus, I will strive each week 
                to help each of you become a smart blitzer, so to speak. More games in the NFL are lost than won.
 While the validity of that cliché is in some question, we saw 
                several examples of this statement last weekend. In most cases, 
                it isn't a total team meltdown so much as it is a mind-boggling 
                individual miscue or two. In Carolina, it was five mistakes as 
                Jake Delhomme 
                proved that last season's playoff debacle vs. Arizona wasn't a 
                fluke. In Cincinnati, it was two defensive backs playing the player 
                (Brandon Marshall) instead of the ball in the final seconds on 
                Leon Hall's 
                leaping deflection (which he really should have attempted to knock 
                down instead), allowing Brandon 
                Stokley to catch the tipped ball effortlessly and run the 
                remaining 50 or so yards for the game-winning TD in a contest 
                that was more of an offensive struggle than a defensive showdown. 
                In New England, it was the Bills' Leodis 
                McKelvin needlessly attempting to run back a kick return against 
                the Patriots late in the game when Buffalo's entire "hands" team 
                was within 10 yards of each other on the other side of the field. 
                Finally, in Oakland, it was DC John Marshall's decision to go 
                with soft zone coverage late in the game when the Raiders' eight-in-the-box, 
                man-free coverage had baffled the Chargers all game long. In the end, I would suggest the Eagles, Broncos, Patriots and 
                Chargers avoided defeat more than anything. On the other hand, 
                the Panthers, Bengals, Bills and Raiders all did their best to 
                snatch defeat from the jaws of victory (you read that right). 
                Now, understand that "avoiding defeat" isn't necessarily 
                a bad thing, think of it more as a survival technique in the NFL. 
                Sometimes, games turn on a favorable call or an inexplicable bounce, 
                but a team has to be in position to take advantage. Teams that 
                routinely avoid defeat are ones that have learned how to keep 
                games close enough for long enough so they can take advantage 
                when their fortuitous event happens.  
                  Cedric Benson: Nothing more than 4.0 yard-per-carry-runner. Of this weekend's losers, I think Cincinnati has the best chance 
                of thriving in 2009. But for the Bengals to be able to do that, 
                they have to drop the illusion they are a running team. Cedric 
                Benson looks better now than he ever did as a Bear, but I 
                don't think anyone - including Cincinnati's coaching staff - believes 
                he is anything more than a four-yard-per-carry runner. Every team 
                needs the threat of the run, but not every team needs to be balanced. 
                As long as Carson 
                Palmer and the WR corps are all healthy, this is a big-play 
                passing team. It seemed as though every time I checked on this 
                game last weekend, Palmer was hitting another "chunk" play (seven 
                of his 21 completions went for more than 15 yards). For a team 
                that faces Pittsburgh and Baltimore twice each season, I assure 
                you that it is not the threat of Benson hitting a 60-yarder up 
                the gut that will keep Steelers DC Dick LeBeau or Ravens DC Greg 
                Mattison in the film room a few extra hours during the week. Unlike the real thing, fantasy football contests are won more 
                often than they are lost. In the fantasy world, we don't have 
                much say on whether we get to play it conservative or not, especially 
                after the draft is over. In other words, we don't get to sit on 
                a lead or change coverages once we jump out to a 20-point advantage. 
                After seeing how teams can lose leads in the strangest of ways 
                over this past weekend, maybe that’s not such a bad thing… What Week 1 of the NFL season lacked in execution, it certainly 
                made up for in last-minute excitement as the games above suggest. 
                But as anyone who has played fantasy football for any length of 
                time can tell you, Week 1 tends to be about the time of year when 
                owners review the first round of season-ending injuries. Usually, 
                the focus goes to the offensive side of the ball when this occurs 
                because that is the side of the ball we, as fantasy owners, are 
                most concerned with. As luck would have it, the year I decide 
                to write about it, the season-enders happen to the players who 
                won't be putting up numbers in most fantasy leagues. No worries 
                though, we talk about offense, defense and special teams here, 
                so let's get started: Brian Urlacher - This one stings. All offseason, I waffled on 
                whether I felt the Bears' defense was above-average or elite, 
                but my main concerns centered on the health of DT Tommie Harris, 
                not the MLB. Sure enough, Urlacher lasted all of one quarter. 
                Even most casual fans know just how much of an impact Urlacher 
                can have on a defense, but it isn't an exaggeration to say he 
                is the heart and soul of the Chicago defense, if not the entire 
                Bears' team. His size allows him to be a force against the run 
                while his speed, quickness, acceleration and smarts allow him 
                to be a Pro Bowl-level performer in the passing game. Hunter Hillenmeyer 
                steps in, but almost by default, Chicago's defense goes from potentially 
                fierce to merely average. I'm not suggesting I would target this 
                defense when sizing up fantasy matchups going forward, but I certainly 
                no longer would avoid it. Shawn Andrews - Back pain 
                and depression wrecked Andrews' 2008 season. While the latter 
                doesn't appear to be an issue anymore, the former has ended his 
                2009 season as well. When he's right, Andrews is a road grader 
                who used those run-blocking talents during his first four healthy 
                seasons to become one of the league's best interior players. Philadelphia 
                now turns back to Winston Justice, this time on the right side. 
                It's hard for any football fan to forget what happened the last 
                time Justice was named a starter. (In his first career start as 
                a LT in 2007, Justice was repeatedly whipped by Giants DE Osi 
                Umenyiora for a franchise-record six sacks. To his credit, 
                though, the Eagles refused to help out their struggling tackle 
                by chipping Umenyiora or moving a TE over to his side in that 
                contest.) Last Sunday he gave up another sack in his second career 
                start, this time against Julius 
                Peppers. The repercussion here is that a player like TE Brent 
                Celek may be asked to stay in and chip or block more than 
                he ever would have been with a healthy Andrews. Obviously, Celek 
                still hauled in six passes in Week 1, so this may not be an issue 
                for the TE as we move forward. However, if Celek’s production 
                hits a lull anytime soon, it may very well be due to the fact 
                that Justice isn’t Andrews. Now for a couple of shorter-term losses: Anthony Gonzalez - (2-6 weeks; multiple sprained knee ligaments) 
                As a fantasy owner, I can deal with injuries that happen as a 
                result of contact. I can even live with injuries that occur during 
                the week at practice which sideline a player for that week. But 
                I'll be the first to admit that non-contact injuries that happen 
                early in games drive me absolutely crazy, for a number of reasons. 
                The Colts have a Week 6 bye, so look for the Colts to let him 
                recover over the next five weeks in order for a Week 7 return 
                vs. St. Louis. In the meantime, expect a rotation at the WR spot 
                opposite Reggie Wayne between rookie Austin Collie and Pierre 
                Garcon, a favorite of GM Bill Polian. Although Collie appeared 
                to be emerging from the preseason competition between the two, 
                the prevailing opinion is that he will remain in the slot while 
                Garcon assumes Gonzalez’s spot. With that said, I'd be hard-pressed 
                to start either one in three-WR leagues anytime soon. The main 
                fantasy beneficiaries figure to be Wayne and TE Dallas Clark. 
                For owners who have little-to-no WR depth behind Gonzalez, a waiver 
                claim for Garcon and Collie (in that order) would be prudent, 
                but I would strongly consider non-Colts alternatives in the interim. Potential Free Agent Alternatives: 
                Bucs WR Michael 
                Clayton (he has supposedly been promised a larger role by 
                the new coaching staff and may be the best Bucs WR option as Antonio 
                Bryant's knee reportedly gave him enough trouble in Week 1 
                that he was shut down for the day), Ravens WR Mark 
                Clayton (the oft-injured WR is always a health risk, but at 
                the rate Baltimore has been airing it out in the preseason and 
                in Week 1, this offense may actually support a startable fantasy 
                TE and two WRs), Titans WRs Justin 
                Gage and Nate 
                Washington (I realize neither player should be unemployed 
                in all that many leagues, but I was surprised to see both are 
                readily available in many leagues; the Titans will pass more and 
                both WRs are talented wideouts who, along with rookie TE Jared 
                Cook, should benefit), Vikings WR Sidney 
                Rice (Brett Favre twice threw to the former Gamecock in the 
                end zone, indicating the two may have some chemistry when it matters 
                most).  
                  Donovan McNabb: His rib injury will give 
                    fantasy owners fits in the short-term. Donovan 
                McNabb - (Week-to-week; fractured rib) Just like Kurt Warner, 
                I suppose we (as fantasy owners) should have felt fortunate to 
                get one full 16-game season out of both players last season. On 
                what appeared to be a seemingly harmless dive into the end zone, 
                McNabb joined the walking wounded when he was landed on by an 
                oncoming Panthers defender. While it would be foolish to ever 
                count McNabb out of any game, I'd say it's a fairly good bet he 
                misses Week 2, if not Week 3, before a Week 4 bye. With that said, 
                I'm sure the competitor that lies within McNabb will want to match 
                wits with Drew Brees this week. Unlike Gonzalez, this injury will 
                be more of a short-term nuisance than a longer-term concern for 
                McNabb and his owners. Potential Free Agent Alternatives: 
                Eagles backup QB Kevin Kolb (for obvious reasons), Redskins QB 
                Jason Campbell (as matchups go, it doesn't get much better than 
                the Rams right now), Titans QB Kerry Collins (this week's opponent, 
                the Texans, appeared clueless at times on defense against what 
                was a scaled-down Jets' passing game) Don't Hit The Panic Switch Just Yet One of the age-old traditions that makes me laugh, cry and ponder 
                my very existence on this fantasy football planet is the ritual 
                of overreacting to Week 1. While I believe the time between Week 
                1 and Week 2 is the best time to make impact free agent/waiver 
                wire pickups, bailing on your team’s “foundation” 
                players too early is a good way to land in the cellar by midseason. LaDainian 
                Tomlinson - I've already seen and heard a number of analysts 
                suggest that the Chargers are RBBC and that LT is closer to 50 
                than 30. With all the negative pub I’ve read about him over the 
                last couple days, it is almost as if people expect (and want) 
                him to fail. I can’t remember the last time such a great player 
                has received such hatred from the fantasy community. Did LT have 
                the look of a disgruntled back at the end of Monday's game that 
                was seeing his work slowly taken away from him? I didn't see it. 
                Is Darren 
                Sproles more explosive? Sure he is, just as Sproles is more 
                explosive than just about any RB in the NFL. However, I seem to 
                remember a number of fantasy "experts" suggest the Chargers were 
                RBBC in 2006 (when Michael 
                Turner was getting worked in earlier in games) and all LT 
                did was set all kinds of scoring records that year. Look, LT is 
                not 26 or 27 anymore and San Diego's O-line isn't what it used 
                to be, but let's just say right now I'm much more concerned about 
                LT having a high-ankle sprain or handing over third-down duties 
                to Sproles than I am about Sproles forging himself into a time-share 
                role with Tomlinson. LT received the first four carries before 
                injuring his ankle and fumbling for the first time in 993 touches 
                on the last of those rush attempts. On that same ankle, Tomlinson 
                promptly outgained Sproles on the ground from that point on with 
                the same number of carries (9): 45-23. That's five yards/carry 
                on a bad wheel, some of which came with two injured starting linemen. (Trust me, I'm not hanging on to the memory of LT because he 
                has won me all kinds of fantasy titles because I honestly can't 
                ever remember winning a championship with him on my team!) What 
                I think we can say is that HC Norv Turner wants Sproles to be 
                the third-down back, which means we could see a dramatic decrease 
                in LT's PPR appeal, but then again, I don't think many of us were 
                expecting another season for the ages from LT either. If handing 
                over third-down work and the occasional series qualifies as a 
                time-share, than so be it. What I don't mind is if owners want 
                to bench him for upcoming games vs. Baltimore and Pittsburgh in 
                Weeks 2 and 4 if they have two other RB2 options with solid matchups. 
                I like LT, but as we've already learned, it isn't 2006 anymore 
                and I would think long and hard before playing ANY RB against 
                those defenses, especially on a gimpy ankle. But to write off 
                LT when he all of four healthy carries is a bit over the top in 
                my opinion. Ronnie Brown - Just like any number of Brown owners, I feel wronged 
                after one week. But I've noticed over Brown's career is that his 
                preseason seems to last a couple of games longer than most everybody 
                else's does. Of the nine Week 1 and Week 2 games he has played 
                in his five-year career, Sunday's 43 yards qualified as the third-best 
                rushing total he has posted! Then, inexplicably, in Week 3, he 
                turns it on (90 rushing yards is his worst performance in any 
                Week 3 with the other three games all going over 100) and he generally 
                remains a productive back thereafter. I'm aware the two-week notion 
                could be a statistical anomaly, but as any fan of LT will tell 
                you that even in his best seasons, Tomlinson also was a bit slow 
                out of the gate. Lance Moore 
                - There's a certain misnomer about possession-type receivers, 
                the notion being they are always needed. Moore is going to be 
                "needed" a lot this season by Drew Brees, but after a bit of reflection, 
                what reason did Brees have to throw it short when the Lions were 
                getting next-to-no rush against him? Upcoming games against aggressive 
                defenses like the Eagles (Week 2) and Jets (Week 4) should be 
                more telling as to whether Moore is going to lose targets to the 
                likes of Devery 
                Henderson and Robert 
                Meachem going forward. For now, I'll bet that I'm right on 
                this one and the WR that Brees called "my Marvin Harrison" and 
                "a big part of what we do" last month will end up with a fairly 
                nice stat line at the end of the 2009 season. This Could Be The Start Of Something (Not So) 
                Beautiful While I believe the above players are in no immediate danger 
                of seeing their fantasy value nosedive, there are players who 
                have given us reason to believe that it may be time to calmly 
                offer their services around the league to make sure we can get 
                something of value in return before it is too late. Kurt Warner - We can blame Warner's lackluster Week 1 on a number 
                of things, including an inspired Niners' defense or Anquan Boldin's 
                hamstring problem. But the mere fact he couldn't find Larry Fitzgerald 
                until late in the first half and consistently found Tim Hightower 
                (12 of Warner's 26 completions went his way) instead suggests 
                a deeper issue - the issue being either he doesn't trust his surgerically-repaired 
                hip...or he can't trust it. We all knew Warner was an injury risk 
                entering the season and Week 1 did little to convince us otherwise. 
                If you can find an owner or two in your league that will pay for 
                the 2008 version of Warner, consider moving him for a healthier, 
                younger option or, at the very least, ensure that Matt Leinart 
                is resting comfortable on your team's bench. I have a bad feeling 
                this is a situation (with Warner) that will see more lows than 
                highs in 2009. Pierre 
                Thomas - Some guys can't buy a break. For his first two years, 
                Thomas was stuck behind fan favorite Deuce 
                McAllister and PPR dymano Reggie 
                Bush on the Saints' depth chart, only to show how explosive 
                he was at the end of each season when given the chance. This year, 
                finally, was going to be the season where Thomas announced his 
                arrival as a top-flight RB. However, a preseason knee injury that 
                appeared to be pretty minor opened the door for Mike 
                Bell, who now becomes a pretty big drain on the potential 
                fantasy value of Thomas. I don't believe Thomas will be a dud 
                by any stretch of the imagination, but trying to pin down when 
                HC Sean Payton will elect to feature Bell or Thomas as his main 
                rusher may become a chore. IF Thomas gets the start in Week 2 
                vs. Philadelphia, it would be good for his long-term fantasy stock 
                if he started fast or Payton may feel the need to rotate his backs 
                for the foreseeable future.  
                  Willie Parker: Is a hamstring injury or 
                    a bad O-line to blame? Willie 
                Parker - Preseason reports had FWP looking as fast as ever. 
                The offensive line was going to improve its play over last year 
                based primarily on the fact that it was entering its second season 
                together. While the Titans figure to remain one of the league's 
                better defenses, the Steelers struggled mightily to get anything 
                going last Thursday, even though Tennessee rarely blitzed or loaded 
                up the box to stop the run. Instead, the Titans lined up in between 
                the offensive line's splits and Pittsburgh appeared powerless 
                to move them out of the way. For now, Parker is blaming a hamstring 
                injury and a lack of preseason work for his Week 1 struggles, 
                but I have yet to see a back thrive in a game where the line fails 
                to open holes or blow defenders off the ball. It's the same phenomenon 
                that is making Rashard 
                Mendenhall a useless fantasy RB as well right now. Because 
                he's as much of a feature back as there is in the NFL anymore, 
                Parker is never too far away from becoming a recommended fantasy 
                starter again, but offensive line play is not something that drastically 
                improves in a week or two. Sometimes The Door To A Bandwagon Should Be 
                A Revolving One Owners are often quick to believe that a stellar Week 1 performance 
                from a player that has overcome some degree of adversity may be 
                a sign of things to come. While these occurrences can happen, 
                I would caution not to buy too heavily into these players quite 
                yet.
 Tony Romo - I think we'll find out pretty quickly how "Romo-friendly" 
                this offense got in the offseason. Anyone who has followed my 
                offseason columns will remember that I thought Tampa Bay would 
                struggle vs. the pass (the long ball in particular) than it ever 
                did under former DC Monte Kiffin because the Bucs ditched the 
                "Tampa 2" for a more aggressive, man-coverage scheme, 
                something that Tampa Bay doesn't have the personnel for quite 
                yet. And sure enough, I believe each of Romo's three scores in 
                Week 1 were of the long-ball variety. This week's opponent, the 
                Giants, should give us a much better barometer as to just how 
                much better this offense is without Terrell Owens. Looking a bit 
                ahead, Carolina, Denver and Kansas City should give Romo ample 
                opportunity to pad his stats, but after that, I'm not sure I would 
                want to count on him for too much. Honestly, I don't see a matchup 
                after the Cowboys' Week 6 bye that strikes me as an overly favorable 
                one, so feel free to trade up from Romo in about a month after 
                Romo has finished running the Panthers, Broncos and Chiefs ragged.
 Nate Burleson - The former Viking is poised to have a much better 
                season than he did in 2008, which came to a screeching halt due 
                to a knee injury after a nice start in Week 1. But I believe all 
                we saw in Week 1 was the first of many instances in which the 
                Rams defense will make a receiver look just a bit better than 
                he is. Most athletes don't regain their "normal" athletic 
                form until the second year after suffering an ACL injury. So while 
                Burleson was lucky in the sense that he suffered his injury right 
                at the start of last season, it would be foolish to believe that 
                he will debunk conventional medical wisdom and enjoy a much more 
                speedy recovery than just about every other player that has undergone 
                ACL surgery.
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