Where Aggravation Leads To Prospecting
9/24/09
Aggressiveness is a characteristic that tends to reward fantasy
owners more times than not. In the NFL, an offensive line will sometimes
hold up long enough to give the quarterback enough time to beat
man coverage down the field and make the defense look foolish against
a fierce pass rush. More often than not, though, when a defense
brings the heat and forces the action, crisis management becomes
the name of the game for the opposing team. In that same vein,
I hope to apply that same kind of pressure to the owners in all
of my leagues by beating my opponents to the punch in regards
to personnel moves. Sometimes, reaching a conclusion about a player
too quickly is much like trying to blitz Peyton Manning –
dangerous and painful. However, coming to a correct conclusion
two weeks or two minutes quicker than your opponents is considered
foresight. Fantasy owners can be a uneasy lot, knowing that one
two-or-three-game losing streak can wreak irreparable damage to
his/her team’s chances to make a visit to the fantasy postseason.
But just as it is in the NFL and in life, it’s hard to land
the big prize by playing scared. Thus, I will strive each week
to help each of you become a smart blitzer, so to speak.
Once in an accident, twice is a pattern, three times is a trend.
While there have been several variations of this saying over
time, I think it holds particularly true in fantasy football.
In a sport where each passing week eliminates 6.25% of our potential
16-game fantasy schedule, nearly 20% of the season is over before
we get to reach the trend stage. Unfortunately, in most competitive
leagues, we have to make our decisions on players - particularly
free agents or unexpected consecutive huge performances from a
later-round pick - long before they string together three consecutive
strong games. Likewise, a number of owners who drafted Matt Forte
No. 1 overall may be staring at an 0-2 record and feel as if they
can't afford to see if OC Ron Turner will make him the centerpiece
of the offense again. Sometimes, it is not about the number of
touches (although that helps), but more about the manner in which
those touches are received. After saying all offseason about how
they would remain a running team, the Bears have been Jay Cutler-centric,
attempting 36 and 38 passes in the first two weeks of the season.
(For what it is worth, expect the “old” Forte to return
this week.)
For as much as drafting your team is the apex of the early part
of the fantasy football season, then setting your lineup each
weekend can sometimes be one of the most excruciating aspect of
this game.
"Free Ronnie Brown!"
Case in point: just like many of his owners, my biggest dilemma
this week on each of my money-league teams centered on Ronnie
Brown. Anybody who has read my columns or e-mailed me about
the Dolphins' RB over the summer knows that I am extremely high
on him. Of course, I can manufacture all the enthusiasm I want
to on a certain player, but if that enthusiasm isn't returned
in kind by the team's coaching staff, my opinion on that player
means next to nothing. In Week 1, Brown saw 13 touches vs. Atlanta
in a game that was never all that much out of hand. Because I
was limited in how much of that Week 1 contest I was actually
able to watch, I steadfastly stuck to Brown in my starting lineup
until HC Tony Sparano unleashed his gem of a quote this past weekend
to the Palm Beach Post, "There is no real star in this bunch of
guys." While that quote would have been spot-on about his receivers,
it couldn't be further from the truth at RB, which is why coaches
can only be trusted some of the time in the media. Although Ricky
Williams looks very quick and light on his feet for a 32-year-old
back (and would be a good alternative to some of the backs currently
starting in the league), he is merely just another RB at this
stage of his career. Brown, as he showed on Monday Night Football,
is special. And the truth of the matter is that if the Dolphins'
coaches really felt Brown was not clearly a better back, Williams
would steal a snap every now and then in the "Wildcat".
Because I was fortunate enough to land high-quality RB depth
on each of my money league teams, I begrudgingly placed Brown
on the bench in every league I had him because – although
I won each game with him in the lineup in Week 1 - even the best
fantasy teams will struggle if their RB2 is only going to see
13 touches. Certainly, if Sparano has "no real star"
among his RBs, then I had little reason to believe that he or
OC Dan Henning would do anything to help Brown prove him wrong.
After all, the Falcons are not too dissimilar to the Colts in
terms of how the teams are built or their defensive personnel.
Thus, like much of the fantasy football nation, I wanted to take
a really hard, uninterrupted look at the Dolphins' offense on
Monday Night Football. In what was one of the most entertaining
yet perplexing games I have seen in some time, Miami not only
evoked visions of the Jacksonville Jaguars' legendary trampling
of the Colts' run defense back in 2006, but also brought to mind
Super Bowl XXV (1991) in which the Bill Parcells-coached Giants
controlled the clock for over 40 minutes behind a punishing ground
game to stymie an explosive Buffalo Bills’ offense. From
a fantasy perspective, in the end, I saw exactly what I had hoped
to see from Brown - a powerful and explosive RB working out of
the "Wildcat" 10-15 times behind a dominant run-blocking
offensive line who finished off his runs. Though I am not anti-Ricky,
Williams was seeing the hole just like Brown, but he was not falling
forward on contact.
It was after watching the MNF game I started thinking about this
week's article and how I was going to describe my feelings on
how I feel about running back by committee (RBBC), time-shares
and all the different kinds of specialty backs in the game today.
Throwing out a game like the Dolphins-Colts tilt in which Miami
ran the ball 49 times (because those types of games just don't
happen all that often), RBBC - or whatever you want to call it
- is really a pretty good idea from a NFL football standpoint,
although it can be quite the drain for fantasy owners. Even though
the NFL continues to evolve into more of a passing league each
year, most coaches are sharp enough to realize that running the
football effectively will always be every bit as important, if
not more so. RBBC would also appear to preserve the long-term
health of backs as well.
My problem with "sharing the load" is how some teams
execute it and what it means when teams get inside the red zone.
As for how they share the load, most teams have one clear-cut
RB that coaches have no reservations about starting (the Dolphins
are a fine example). For those teams, it blows my mind that the
coaching staff believes that alternating series is the best way
to go. For teams like the Dolphins, the coaching staff is voluntarily
taking opportunities away from their best player to give more
touches to a lesser player. For Brown or any other RB of his ilk,
most NFL RBs don't require a 15-20 minute break to recover from
the last series. From a strategic standpoint, I believe it would
also be harder for a defense to prepare if they didn't know when
Williams would replace Brown during a drive. I have a much easier
time understanding sprinkling a dash of Williams into each drive
than I do giving a player a set number of series because, in the
end, that methodology will lead to games in which Williams will
see more touches than Brown because the former is more of a plodder
than the latter, thus requiring more carries to put up the same
numbers.
In my quest to illustrate why Brown needs to see the ball more
often, allow me to put some numbers into perspective since the
new coaching staff took over in Miami prior to the 2008 season,
the Dolphins are 6-1 and average 22 points/game in contests where
Brown sees at least 15 carries, in which the RB averages 4.9 yards/carry
and over 18 fantasy points/game in non-PPR leagues. In the 12
non-15-carry games, the team is 5-7 and averages 19 points/game,
in which Brown averages 3.6 YPC and less than eight fantasy points/game.
While the team point differential isn't as much as one might expect,
the Dolphins are bound to get into a lot of close, lower-scoring
games with their brand of football where a field goal difference
can easily be the difference between a win and a loss. From a
fantasy perspective, the YPC and fantasy point differences are
very telling. There are any number of reasons why the disparity
is what it is in both cases - including the quality of opponent
or his fatigue near the end of last season after recovering from
ACL surgery - but it might also suggest that Brown simply isn't
getting enough work.
As much as alternating series gripes me, the concept of goal-line
backs irritates me even more. Sure, just like any other part of
football, there are certain players who perform better in certain
aspects of the game better than others. No one would question
current players like Kevin
Faulk or former ones such as Larry Centers, Warrick Dunn and
Michael Pittman were usually (or currently are) their team's best
"receiving" backs and, thus, receive the bulk of their team's
passing game work at the RB position. But unlike a 3-point specialist
in basketball or a lefty specialist in baseball, I firmly believe
the idea of a designated goal-line back is, for the most part,
unnecessary. Again, there are exceptions, but I am hard-pressed
to understand the notion that one player is a better runner for
the first 80-90 yards of the football field and then another runner
is better at finishing it off. The same qualities that enable
running backs to succeed on the back half of the 50 are the same
ones that enable them to thrive on the front half. Anyone who
watched RBs such as Marcus Allen 10-20 years ago or Priest Holmes
earlier this decade will be the first to tell you that converting
at the stripe is less about being the Incredible Hulk and more
about vision and balance - the same qualities that allow rushers
to succeed in the middle of the field. For every "power back"
like Emmitt Smith, Walter Payton or John Riggins that appear on
the all-time leaderboard for rushing TDs, there is a "finesse
back" like Shaun Alexander, Barry Sanders, Holmes, Allen or Tony
Dorsett who have also been every bit as proficient at the goal
line.
Even RBs that used to get knocked for their goal-line woes (Edgerrin
James, Fred
Taylor to name a couple) were brought in to Seattle and New
England, respectively, with the idea they would assume goal-line
duties. I assure each of you that one offseason did not change
either back’s profile, but in a football world where many teams
alternate series with their RBs, I suppose it only makes sense
that some teams need a third RB to do the job that one runner
used to be able to do all by himself less than 10 years ago. In
the age of specialization, this is one specialized area that I
will probably never understand. I think what it provides in terms
of making two or three players feel like they are contributing,
it subtracts in terms of the offense’s overall effectiveness.
With that topic off my chest, I suppose it is only appropriate
that I continue discussing workloads. However, rather than continue
to“Free Ronnie Brown” diatribe, I would like to introduce a RB
workload and WR/TE target tool that I feel will assist owners
in any kind of league. It's not so much a creation as it is a
different (but what I believe to be a more efficient) way to present
the same material you can find on any site that provides that
kind of information. Essentially, rather than going page-to-page
looking at workload/touch totals, I feel it is more helpful to
put them all on one page so it is much easier to compare and contrast,
something I feel is particularly helpful when trying to come up
with trade offers. I'll spare you the background story, but suffice
it to say that when I have put the time into doing this research,
I have generally been able to uncover some diamonds in the rough.
For RBs this week, I drew the line at 18 touches (nine/game)
and for WRs/TEs, I stopped at five targets/game. Those are hardly
foolproof limits, but once we get lower than those numbers, we
are typically dealing with role players at best, which should
be available on your league’s waiver wire or on the cheap
from an owner holding onto that player to fill out his/her roster.
As you will see, there are some notable exceptions on each list,
but expect most of those players to find their way back up the
chart before long.
Quick Hits: In the unlikely event
an owner landed Cedric Benson and Fred Jackson with the idea that
a former first-round bust and a Coe College product would lead
the league in touches after two weeks, congrats. My opinion on
Benson hasn’t changed – even though this is the best
he has looked as a pro – because he just does not offer
the breakaway threat than can make a good offense a great one.
As for Jackson, he may have just worked himself into a fairly
substantial share of playing time once Marshawn Lynch returns.
I was bearish on Portis before the season and I’m afraid
it’s not going to get any better. I had hoped that the Redskins’
offensive woes in 2008 were due to the transition in learning
HC Jim Zorn’s offense. After observing most of Washington’s
first two games this season, it’s become clear to me that
Zorn is just not a very good play caller and game manager. With
Ladell Betts stealing more and more of his field time, Portis
may struggle to post RB2 numbers some weeks.
With 19 touches last week, it may be time to buy Moreno. If the
first two weeks are any indication, Buckhalter is going to get
his fair share of work, but apparently McDaniels isn’t holding
the rookie’s preseason injury woes against him.
Notable players left off the list:
LenDale
White, LaDainian
Tomlinson, Felix
Jones, Chris
“Beanie” Wells
Quick Hits: It’s no surprise after
two weeks the WR leaderboard looks a tornado went through every
fantasy owner’s rankings; it happens just about every year. However,
the Panthers’ Steve
Smith could be poised for one of his biggest seasons yet.
We all know how Jake
Delhomme tends to lock onto him, but at his current rate,
the mighty mite is on pace for 224 targets. He probably won’t
get quite that many, but Carolina’s defense is going even worse
than I thought it was going to be, so Carolina’s passing game
may be forced to air it out a lot.
Not many people have ever questioned the potential of Laurent
Robinson or Mario
Manningham since they came into the league, but it is quite
surprising to see how quickly they have started this season. Staying
healthy has always been Robinson’s biggest question mark while
Manningham had been stuck behind Amani Toomer and Plaxico Burress
since he entered the NFL. I suspect we haven’t heard the last
of Domenik
Hixon or Hakeem
Nicks just yet, so don’t go too crazy with your expectations
for Manningham. With that said, his off- and preseason work with
longtime WR Keenan McCardell is paying off and with another strong
showing or two in the coming weeks, he may just lock down the
starting job and produce like a low-end fantasy WR2.
Two games, 32 total targets for the Pats’ slot WRs, with 16 coming
in each game. If you enjoy the unappreciated science of handcuffing
your WR, it may be worth it for Welker owners to secure Julian
Edelman. The rookie will be useless in fantasy leagues if
Welker finishes out the schedule, but if the former Dolphin continues
to have problems with his knee, Edelman does a fine Welker impression
and would produce at a level just south of the vet if he were
asked to fill his shoes again in Week 3 or beyond – he is no fluke.
Here’s an idea for the Bears…rather than removing
your best possession receiver (and Cutler’s favorite target)
Earl Bennett from the game, how about if you consider having deep
threat Johnny Knox share snaps with deep threat Devin Hester?
That way, Hester could return to full-time special teams work
and the team wouldn’t be out both a starting WR and punt
returner if he were to get injured.
Consider picking up Jerramy Stevens if you are in the market
for a TE with a bit of fantasy upside. Once former OC Jeff Jagodzinski
was canned late in the preseason, I wasn’t sure the Bucs
would feature their TEs all that much. With 33 targets between
Stevens and Winslow, they are definitely still getting their opportunities.
Notable players left off the list:
Percy Harvin,
Terrell
Owens, Zach
Miller, Laveranues
Coles, Bernard
Berrian, Antonio
Bryant
College Spotlight
I’d like to cap off this edition of the Blitz by following
through on a segment I mentioned a couple of weeks ago. I won’t
always pick the most obvious college players, but I will tend
to focus my attention on a player who I firmly believe has a chance
at being fantasy-worthy in 2010. Just like any good talent evaluator,
I will only write about a player if I have seen him play on multiple
occasions. (If by chance I break that rule, I will make it known
in my evaluation.)
Jahvid Best, RB Cal (5-10, 195)
After a pair of strong games to start of last season, Best burst
onto the national scene with a three-game run to close out the
2008 campaign. Over that stretch, he posted a mind-boggling 698
rushing yards and nine total TDs (in which his lowest rushing
total in a single game was 186 yards) despite not seeing more
than 20 carries in any of those contests. Say what you will about
Pac-10 defenses, but Best is averaging over eight yards per carry
in his career. We should get a good idea of just how much his
game has grown in a couple of weeks when the Golden Bears host
USC, which was the last opponent to hold Best under the 100-yard
mark (seven-game streak of surpassing the century mark).
Unlike some of the recent Cal backs to make it into the NFL (J.J.
Arrington, Justin Forsett, to name a few), Best will be more than
a situational RB when he decides to go pro, which will probably
after the completion of the 2009 season. When the 20-year-old
junior first receives the ball from quarterback Kevin Riley, he
is more patient than most NFL rushers waiting for the offensive
line to create a crease for him to run through. Once the hole
develops, Best has the vision to recognize it and is powerful
enough to break an arm tackle or elusive enough to make the first
defender miss. From that point on, his acceleration allows him
to pull away from opposing defensive backs. Furthermore, he is
NFL-ready as a receiver. On a number of occasions vs. Minnesota
last Saturday, Cal split him out wide and utilized that aspect
of his game as well. Don't dwell on the fact that he has only
seven catches through three games as his numbers in passing game
numbers would likely be better if the Golden Bears had needed
him late in their first two games of the season. The one knock
on Best right now would be his size, but like most young RBs,
he'll likely keep adding muscle over the next few offseasons and,
in his case, be up to 205 by the start of next summer. He already
has the leg strength necessary to be a good blocker in pass pro,
but he will want to get a bit thicker above the waist to excel
in that area of his game as well as to better absorb the punishment
that an NFL running back takes. Because of his natural talents
and Cal's strong o-line, I have yet to see if Best has some of
the moves (spin move, stiff arm) necessary to make him even more
of a nightmare for opponents – which is one more reason why I
want to see him vs. USC.
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