Wide Receivers Gone Wild!
10/15/09
Aggressiveness is a characteristic that tends to reward fantasy
owners more times than not. In the NFL, an offensive line will sometimes
hold up long enough to give the quarterback enough time to beat
man coverage down the field and make the defense look foolish against
a fierce pass rush. More often than not, though, when a defense
brings the heat and forces the action, crisis management becomes
the name of the game for the opposing team.
In that same vein, I hope to apply that same kind of pressure
to the owners in all of my leagues by beating my opponents to
the punch in regards to personnel moves. Sometimes, reaching a
conclusion about a player too quickly is much like trying to blitz
Peyton Manning – dangerous and painful. However, coming
to a correct conclusion two weeks or two minutes quicker than
your opponents is considered foresight. Fantasy owners can be
a uneasy lot, knowing that one two-or-three-game losing streak
can wreak irreparable damage to his/her team’s chances to
make a visit to the fantasy postseason. But just as it is in the
NFL and in life, it’s hard to land the big prize by playing
scared. Thus, I will strive each week to help each of you become
a smart blitzer, so to speak.
About three times a season, I really dread Sunday. I suppose the
same could be said for most people, but my sense of impending doom
isn't due to in-laws or weekend obligations; it's due to the predictable
unpredictability of fantasy football. It seems like a few times
every season, the NFL flips on its head and churns out stats that
make us shake our head and, more importantly for us fantasy leaguers,
hands blowout wins to the less fortunate teams in our leagues.
In most leagues (PPR or non-PPR), the teams that possess the
top RBs are usually the most consistent and, thus, the most successful.
However, there are those weeks that shake the fantasy world to
its very core - the weeks where receivers almost single-handedly
win games by themselves. Sure, some WRs do it more often than
others, which is a big reason why the Andre Johnsons and Randy
Mosses of the league go so high in fantasy drafts. But unlike
the running back position - where a player will give us at least
a hint of a huge game by dropping a couple of games that catch
our attention before producing big-time in the right matchup -
receivers can deliver amazing statistical performances at any
place or at any time.
“Unknown” receivers going off in the passing game is nothing
new, but this past week was one for the ages. Of the 21 receivers
that posted TDs this week, nine scored twice (and Braylon
Edwards could have easily been #10). Of those nine two-TD
wideouts, four of them went over the century mark and two went
over 200 yards (Roddy
White and Miles
Austin). Certainly, few will argue that Johnson, Larry
Fitzgerald and White were drafted early with the idea being
that any one of those players could blow up and produce weeks
like Week 5. Brandon
Marshall has never been short on talent, T.J.
Houshmandzadeh was probably going to give his new team one
or two multiple-score games this year and Nate
Burleson has produced before but his production less than
18 months after ACL surgery is making me look bad (even if all
of his good games have come at home against poor defenses).
So maybe Austin
Collie dropped us a couple of hints over the past few weeks
with his increased target rate and corresponding stat lines, but
nearly 100 yards and two TDs and better numbers across the board
than Reggie Wayne? Jeremy
Maclin filling in for an injured Kevin Curtis and making all
DeSean Jackson owners furious? And the surprise of all surprises...who
would have thought that Miles
Austin would put up the numbers to make Cowboys' fans forget
about Terrell Owens, if only for a day, in his first career start?
Is Anthony Gonzalez really the #2 wideout
in Indianapolis?
I don't claim to have the answers yet regarding the WR situation
in Indianapolis, especially if Anthony
Gonzalez returns as projected after the Colts' Week 6 bye,
which is looking more and more unlikely. Wayne is option #1 and
TE Dallas
Clark is option #2. After that, who knows? It was obvious
listening to Peyton Manning in post-game interviews after Sunday’s
thrashing of Tennessee that Collie has certainly earned the QB's
respect with his attention to detail and work ethic. Pierre
Garcon is the team's best deep threat without a doubt, so
where does Gonzalez fit? I'll be awaiting the answer, just like
everyone else.
If I had to give each of you my best educated guess (which is
what it is, a guess, at this point), if Gonzalez is deemed 100%
healthy in the next two weeks, he forces Garcon into a five-to-10-play-per-game
player. Collie has excelled in the slot, so I'd expect his playing
time to remain the same, even if his production drops a bit. I
do expect Gonzalez to live up to his preseason hype when he returns,
although it'd be foolish of me to suggest it will happen immediately.
Timing (and being in football shape) isn't something that occurs
overnight, so if any of you are waiting on Gonzalez, view him
as a low-end WR3 upon his return and a WR2 about two weeks after
that. Optimistically, that may happen around Week 9 vs. Houston
or Week 10 vs. New England.
Collie is probably here to stay as a low-end WR3 as probably
the best slot option Manning has thrown to since Brandon Stokley
years ago. It should be noted that Week 5's standout numbers came
as a result of Tennessee's strict adherence to its Cover 2 shell,
which takes away the one thing Garcon does well - go deep - and
emphasizes the underneath routes - Collie's forte. After the Colts’
Week 6 bye, they meet St. Louis, which means it may be Garcon’s
turn to have a field day.
Of all the undrafted fantasy receivers that have hit big over
the past few weeks (Mario
Manningham, Mohammed
Massaquoi, etc), I think I would spend the most free agent
money - and have the highest hopes - for Maclin. Kevin Curtis
is reportedly on the trading block and, even if he is not, Maclin
is more of a gamebreaker at this point. All the rookie needed
since he arrived was for Curtis to become obsolete or miss some
time, so Week 5 may have just given Philadelphia enough reason
to make a move, be it via trade or a demotion for Curtis. Just
like with Collie, keep expectations in check as rookies are inherently
inconsistent and the receiver position in general is also inconsistent.
Also bear in mind that Tampa Bay gives up the big play routinely,
so another 6-142-2 line is highly unlikely. But in Philly's equal-opportunity
offense, Maclin could be capable of producing a few more 100-yard,
one-score days if defenses insist on doubling DeSean Jackson like
the Bucs did.
Just like any other receiver who goes from a part-time role to
besting Steve Smith's (CAR) complete-season fantasy point total
in just one game, Austin has carved himself a new role within
the Cowboys' offense. His Week 5 numbers probably entitle him
into a role reversal with Patrick
Crayton, if not equal treatment with Roy
Williams in Tony Romo's eyes. However, it is worth noting
he would be the #3 option for Romo on a team that wants to run
the ball. With that said, it took all of one game to prove to
HC Wade Phillips that Austin is his best YAC (yards after catch)
wideout. Austin has the size and speed to produce on the outside,
so he should be a good fantasy WR3 going forward. Bear in mind
that while Austin took advantage of his situation, he had a series
of events line up in his favor – a limited Marion
Barber, an absent Roy Williams and a Chiefs defense that couldn't
seem to tackle him - so while he's certainly worth a pickup, I
think Maclin is the better pickup for 2009 and beyond.
And now, onto the workload and target breakdowns...
For RBs this week, I drew the line at seven touches/game and
for WRs/TEs, I stopped at five targets/game, rounding up if I
need to. Again, those are hardly foolproof limits, but once we
get lower than those numbers, we are typically dealing with role
players at best, which should be available on your league’s
waiver wire or on the cheap from an owner holding onto that player
to fill out his/her roster. Each position will be sorted by
touches or targets/game.
There seem to be some people out there touting Cedric
Benson as this year's Michael Turner. First off, Turner is a
straight-line, 245-pound behemoth that is a battering ram and a
big play waiting to happen. While Benson has embraced his size since
joining the Bengals, he is a cut-back runner who needs to break
a tackle or two to produce a big play. From a fantasy standpoint,
hopefully, no one is buying that Benson will hit 1,700 yards and
17 TDs. But the truth of the matter is the Bengals are sticking
with the run longer in games more consistently than anytime I can
remember since their glory days in the 80's with James Brooks and
Ickey Woods. While Rudi
Johnson and Corey
Dillon each had long runs of multiple 330-carry seasons, Cincinnati
is happy to pound Benson against the likes of the Steelers and Ravens
in 2009 whereas in previous years, one unsuccessful run would have
been followed by multiple Carson
Palmer passes. The Bengals will eventually open things up a
bit more and back off Benson ever so slightly, but Benson happens
to run for one of the few teams that has rarely ever used a committee
approach, so as long as he holds up health-wise, he'll be one of
the few backs who will continue to average over 20 touches/game.
Much like Benson, Kevin Smith is showing he is up to the physical
challenge of carrying his team's running game. The end of his
fantasy season doesn't figure to provide much in the way of fantasy
points (CIN, BAL, ARI, SF), but the next few weeks should help
his owners secure a few wins. Green Bay hasn't exactly been a
model of consistency stopping the run, Seattle's defense away
from home has been uneven at best while St. Louis and Cleveland
should be opponents Detroit can run on all day long.
If the owners of Clinton Portis, Jamal Lewis, Larry Johnson or
Fred Jackson can still find an owner out there willing to relive
the glory days (in the cases of the first three players) or believe
that Jackson will manage a 50-50 split of carries with Marshawn
Lynch, pull the trigger. We may be getting close to saying that
about Ryan Grant as well, but I have a small place in my heart
for any back that can put up double-digit fantasy points in PPR.
His non-PPR totals have been less inspiring, but he's not a bad
option in either format, just an unspectacular one.
Knowshon Moreno is every bit of the stud I thought he was, but
Correll Buckhalter will return to his normal role of stealing
10-15 touches when he returns from his ankle sprain in a couple
of weeks. Nevertheless, Moreno is a player that all dynasty leaguers
should consider dealing for, as he has top-10 fantasy RB potential,
possibly as early as 2010.
I was shocked to discover Addai has moved up to the sixth spot
among RBs in my PPR leagues' scoring system. Certainly, 17 catches
over the last two games has greatly helped his cause. But the
preseason talk of using Addai and Donald Brown based on which
back matched up better with the competition has not transpired.
Addai has 18 more carries (62-44) and 19 more receptions (26-7)
despite running for 3.4 YPC (Brown isn't much better at 3.5).
Two years after loving Addai has a fantasy property, I don't trust
him anymore and I'd be leery of expecting his incredible production
to continue.
I refuse to believe that Ravens OC Cam Cameron got me again.
Two years ago, I was so fed up with the way he was using Ronnie
Brown (splitting time with Jesse Chatman), I dealt him prior
to Week 4, only to have Brown unleash a 211 total-yard, three-TD
game against the Jets. Fast forward to this year, Willis
McGahee had 31 total touches through two weeks as compared
to Ray Rice's
34. Without so much of a whimper, McGahee’s touched the ball 15
times in the three weeks since while Rice has 52 touches. Certainly,
Baltimore isn't getting in the red zone as it often as it was
in the first two weeks, but it seems rather pointless to establish
McGahee as a real threat in the first two games of a season only
to cut his playing time by more than half after he delivered to
the degree he did. Rice has clearly established himself as the
lead back, but then again, didn’t he do that in the preseason
too? I’m ready to hear the rest of this story…
I could almost swear Jets OC Brian Schottenheimer is keeping
track of each carry Thomas Jones and Leon Washington has during
the course of the game. I follow as many of the games on Sunday
as I possibly can and I can't help but notice that if Jones is
four carries ahead, it is Leon time or vice versa. The Jets obviously
feel more comfortable with Jones at the goal line than Washington
or Shonn Greene (despite their insistence that is not the case)
as he has scored three times from inside the five while the other
two have yet to score period. With Buffalo in town this week though,
it may be time for TJ and Washington to reach paydirt and touch
the ball 15-18 times a piece.
Much to my chagrin (and contrary to my
article last week), Ricky
Williams isn't going away. He doesn't finish runs like he
used to or have the explosion of Ronnie
Brown, but he is as fast now as he was at any point in his
prime, if not more so. Just like the millions of others watching
Monday Night Football a few days ago, I was shocked to see the
ease in which Miami was able to blow Jets' defenders off the ball.
With the frequency in which the Dolphins run the ball, Miami will
be able to support a legit fantasy RB1 and a mid-level fantasy
RB2.
Wes Welker,
check. Andre
Johnson, expected. Steve
Smith (CAR) and Randy
Moss, of course. Can someone explain to me how Nate
Burleson is being targeted so much? I mean we saw his potential
in Week 1 of the 2008 season when he posted a 5-60-1 line before
tearing up his knee, the one thing that was supposed to hold him
back in 2009. As late as August, he was supposed to split snaps
with Deion Branch and rookie Deon Butler. No one would question
that a healthy Burleson tops the other two, but he isn't supposed
to be there yet. I still expect a dropoff at some point, but congrats
on landing a top-notch WR3 at the price of a late-round pick or
waiver-wire pickup. Right now, he is holding steady as a top-five
or top-ten WR option in most leagues, but I can’t see that continuing.
Big Ben has been on target.
I can't help but notice how efficient Ben
Roethlisberger has been throwing to Hines
Ward and Heath
Miller. Of the 40 passes thrown to Ward, 33 have been caught
- or 82.5%. As expected, for Miller, it gets even better (29-of-33),
or 88%. Granted, many of Ward's receptions are on shorter passes
while Miller's catches are dump-offs and flat passes, but that
kind of connect rate is incredible. While several TE's are in
Miller's neighborhood in this category, Ward's rate is remarkable.
By comparison, Wes Welker's connect rate with Tom Brady is 63%
and his role isn't all that much different than Ward's. In fact,
of the 12 WRs that have 40 or more targets thus far, only the
Giants' Steve Smith at 77% is remotely close to Ward's connect
rate. I'm not sure that knowledge will help you in your day-to-day
activities, but it does speak to the fact that Big Ben is on target
when he throws to Ward and Miller and when he does throw short,
the ball gets caught.
Assuming he is not limited in any way by the knee injury that
knocked him out of the game early in Week 5, I'm still firmly
in Calvin
Johnson's corner. Before last week's one-target showing, Johnson
was averaging 10 targets per game. At that rate, he'll be more
than fine against a schedule that doesn't feature any of the elite
CBs in the league. Cincinnati (in Week 13) has shown a pretty
good knack for shutting down WR1s, but outside of the Bengals,
I don't see a team left on the Lions' schedule that Johnson can't
burn once or twice. After a fairly slow start, Johnson delivered
a performance worthy of his draft status in Week 4 and could have
easily done so again vs. a Steelers secondary minus S Troy Polamalu
(Dennis
Northcutt went off for 5-70-1 in his absence!) Deal for him
if you can, because I get the sense he will at least match last
year's numbers, perhaps minus a TD or two.
Don't get fooled by Kellen
Winslow's incredible Week 5. Many folks are still under the
illusion the Eagles' defense is the same one that stifled opponents
in 2008, but that is not the case. Winslow may have a connection
with new QB Josh
Johnson, but neither Johnson nor rookie QB Josh
Freeman is good for his long-term value. If I owned him in
any league, I'd be thrilled to deal him away in a package for
Dallas Clark or Antonio Gates or straight up for Owen Daniels
or Chris Cooley. I want nothing to do with the Bucs' offense.
Count me among the many people stunned by the complete lack of
involvement DeSean Jackson had in the passing game in Week 5.
Certainly, Jeremy Maclin took advantage, but it had to be upsetting
for his owners to see a complete lack of targets. Due to the nature
of the Eagles' offense, this kind of production will happen from
time to time when defenses commit all their pass defense resources
to stopping Jackson, but it is these kinds of performances that
make Jackson a WR2 instead of a WR1. Don't be too concerned going
forward as he rebounded nicely from his three low-target games
last season with pretty solid performances the next week. I don't
expect a career-best performance from him vs. Oakland, but I believe
HC Andy Reid will move him around enough to allow him some useful
numbers this week.
I tried locking up Eddie Royal in as many leagues as possible,
but alas, I came up empty when each of his owners (well behind
in the standings, I might add) asked for players like DeSean Jackson
in return. I don't think he should expect to see 15 targets on
a regular basis, but I'd be rather surprised if he isn't pushing
Brandon Marshall for the team lead most weeks, just as we expected
in the preseason. Based on his rookie numbers, he'll likely be
labeled a disappointment when the season is over, but that doesn't
mean he doesn't have value as a WR3 going forward. If for some
reason he has a down game vs. San Diego on MNF this week, see
if his owner has had enough.
I'm growing a bit tired of John Carlson. He blew the doors off
the Rams in Week 1 - which was somewhat expected - but has been
severely limited by the re-emergence of Burleson and a rapidly
declining offensive line. I had hoped he would be helped by the
return of Hasselbeck, but I think his value lies almost completely
on the health of Hasselbeck, which behind a porous offensive line
is not a good bet.
College Spotlight
Ryan Mathews, RB Fresno State (5-11, 220)
Pat Hill's Fresno State squad is well known for its "anytime,
anyplace, anywhere" approach in scheduling opponents. The
same thing could be said about Mathews' ability to strike from
anywhere on the field. In each of his first three games this season,
Mathews has broken a run of at least 55 yards. I was pretty convinced
that Cal's Jahvid Best was going to be the best runner I would
see in college football this season when I wrote about him a few
weeks back, but this junior tailback has me rethinking that notion.
Mathews has been an ultra-productive RB since he first suited
up in 2007, but he officially took the nation by storm on a Friday
night several weeks ago (September 18) when he almost single-handedly
kept the Bulldogs in the game against Boise State that night.
Against a Broncos defense that was allowing only 34 yards/game
to its opponents entering the game, Mathews ripped off THREE 60+
yard runs. So far this season, he is the nation's second-leading
rusher and has five runs of over 50 yards to his credit, which
should speak to his "long speed". He further enhanced
his stock in my mind by putting up a solid 177 total yards on
40 touches (38 carries, two catches) against Big East power Cincinnati,
proving he can hold up well when getting a feature-back number
of carries.
At 220 pounds, Mathews is already NFL-size. While he is primarily
known as a north-south runner, it would be a misnomer to believe
that is all he is. He is an instinctual runner who rarely even
gets slowed by the first defender. He runs well behind his pads,
shows good balance and is almost always making the right cut at
the right time. He doesn't show off his elusiveness all the time,
but is quicker than most backs his size and can make a defender
look bad in space. The Bulldogs don't call on him much in the
passing game, but he has shown the ability to be able to catch
poorly thrown or tipped balls on screen passes, so I don't question
his hands, although he will be asked to prove that part of his
game as he moves along in the evaluation process (12 career receptions).
He even shows the willingness to pass block, although from the
games I've seen, he'd rather cut a blitzer than to stone him,
so if I were to knock him on anything, it would be that.
Mathews has been compared to Colts' rookie Donald Brown and,
while I think that is a fair comparison, Brown is more of a grinder
while Mathews is more of a game-breaker. So while he be best suited
to run in the one-cut, zone-blocking system made famous by the
Denver Broncos because of his vision, decisiveness and acceleration,
the truth of the matter is that I think Mathews has future NFL
star written all over him regardless of whether he is running
behind a zone-blocking or a power-based, man-blocking line.
e-mail me with any questions/comments.
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