Early Observations - AFC
6/30/09
BAL | BUF | CIN
| CLE | DEN
| HOU | IND | JAX
| KC |
MIA | NE | NYJ
| OAK | PIT |
SD | TEN | NFC
Back in the good old days, the NFL didn’t exactly run year-round
(or the media didn’t cover it that way, which is really more
of the truth). Likewise, competitive fantasy owners were able to
take a break after the Super Bowl from their hobby, waiting until
sometime after the NFL Draft to dive into some publication or check
out some website to start getting geared up for the upcoming season.
Those days are gone now, or at least should be, if fantasy football
represents a small portion of income each year for the owners
who play in money leagues or for those folks who invest a few
hours each week during the season setting their lineups, making
sure their free agent and waiver wire pickups are the pieces needed
to make a run for a fantasy title.
Unlike the NFL, which gets to take a short break before training
camp starts in late July, now is the time for fantasy owners to
move from the stage of formulating opinions on players to the
stage of strengthening those opinions. For example, does the mere
return of Tom Brady mean that the New England Patriots step right
back into their offensive production from 2007? Does the turnover
in Denver mean the running game takes center stage or does it
mean the same old production from the passing game but with a
different trigger man?
Over the next two weeks, this column will provide one fantasy
owner’s opinions as to what took place in each team’s
offseason workouts (OTAs and mini-camps) and what it could mean
for all fantasy owners come draft time. After this offseason workout
two-parter, we’ll delve into the players who are overvalued
and undervalued before we really open up things with the heart
of my offseason preparation: schedule analysis.
This week, though, we’ll take a look at the AFC:
Baltimore
The arrival of HC John Harbaugh and OC Cam Cameron was good for
the Ravens in a number of ways, including the team’s bottom
line last season, the running game and the successful rookie season
of QB Joe Flacco. However, it has also effectively quashed any
fantasy value TE Todd Heap had left. An injury-prone player almost
from the start of his career who emerged as a top five fantasy
option at his position when he could stay healthy, Heap was asked
to stay in and block more than he ever has. This offseason, he
is dealing with a lingering back issue and is expected to block
more than he did last year. Whether that means offseason pickup
L.J. Smith - also an injury-prone TE - picks up the slack is another
question, but Heap’s days as a useful fantasy option are
probably over.
While Ray Rice is reportedly having a great offseason, it bears
mentioning that Le’Ron McClain was far and away the most
productive runner for the Ravens last season. Using My
FF Today scoring, McClain finished with 169 fantasy points
(good for 19th place in the league), 42.6 points ahead of Baltimore’s
second-best fantasy RB, Willis McGahee. There’s a much better
chance that Rice - who had 140 touches last year - will eat more
into McGahee’s 194 touches than he will McClain’s
250. Still, given the uncertain nature of how carries will be
divided week-to-week, all three probably qualify as nothing more
than RB3 options in non-PPR leagues. In PPR leagues, Rice and
McClain should both get enough work to be considered low-end RB2
candidates.
Buffalo
For the first time in years, the Bills should possess a wealth
of offensive talent from which fantasy owners can draft from this
season. Adding Terrell
Owens helps in that respect, but he’s not the only reason.
With the talent to run the no-huddle and a QB in Trent
Edwards who is sharp enough to handle the responsibilities
associated with the attack, Buffalo sought Jim Kelly’s input on
the offense that made the team so explosive in the 90s. … As for
T.O., it is interesting to note that when Owens moved from the
Niners to the Eagles in 2004, Philly went from 18th in total offense
to ninth. In 2006, Dallas went from 13th to 5th. Also of note
are Owens’ totals in ‘04 and ‘06 (77 catches-1,200 yards-14 TD
in ‘04; 85-1,180-13 in ‘06). It is easy to forget that Tony Romo
was an afterthought until midway through Owens’ first season in
Dallas, partly because he was more willing to use “the player”
than Drew Bledsoe was. While Dallas possesses more overall offensive
talent than Buffalo, Lee
Evans and Marshawn
Lynch are proven players in the league and stand to produce
more with all the attention a motivated T.O. will draw.
There is a bit of chatter going on right now to suggest that reserve
RB Fred Jackson may get some more play in the passing game. Even
after Lynch returns from his three-game suspension. Buffalo believes
Jackson is such an accomplished receiver that it is supposedly
tossing around the idea of using Jackson in the slot when the
Bills want to spread the field, further adding to his already
increasing value as a Lynch handcuff.
Cincinnati
Many critics have been quick to write off Cedric Benson’s
late-season emergence, suggesting he will revert to the underachieving
first-round pick he showed himself to be in Chicago. Fantasy owners
would be wise to embrace the idea that Benson may have just needed
a wake-up call. The Bengals’ RBs coach, the heralded Jim
Anderson, has routinely praised the former his pupil’s attitude
and work ethic since joined the team as a street free agent midway
through last season, even showing off better hands than most observers
thought he possessed. In regards to fantasy, few backs outside
of the first round have a fairly clear path to 300+ carries, which
Benson does. Combine that with Cincy’s renewed emphasis
in running the football and its much-improved defense, and there
is reason to believe Benson could be vastly undervalued this summer.
Another victim (mostly self-inflicted) of the Bengals’ dreadful
season last year was Chad
Ochocinco, who injured his shoulder in the preseason after
coming in unprepared to play following an offseason of trade demands.
Perhaps humility was the best thing that could have happened to
the five-time Pro Bowler because after working out on his own
for most of the offseason, he arrived just before mini-camp as
advertised. Although he figures to remain a rather inconsistent
fantasy force (in terms of weekly consistency), expect Ochocinco
to rejoin the top 10 fantasy WR group.
Staying with WRs, Laveranues
Coles may be in line for one of his most productive seasons
yet. Despite never having played with a QB the caliber of Carson
Palmer for a full season (a 38-year-old Brett Favre with a
bum right arm and shoulder doesn’t count), Coles’ career yards/catch
is a more than full yard better than T.J.
Houshmandzadeh’s (12.8 to 11.4). He’s reportedly already meshing
in well with Palmer and figures to make a pretty fair transition
into Housh’s old spot. Coles is a strong bet to lead the team
in catches and, with his trademark speed, may be able to make
a few more big plays than his predecessor. The team seems pretty
committed to using Andre
Caldwell in the slot, but apparently joining Benson on the
maturity bandwagon is Chris
Henry, who appears to have Palmer’s confidence back. While
he doesn’t necessarily have an actual assigned spot yet, he is
clearly the Bengals’ #3 WR and worth consideration as a low-end
WR3 or high-end WR4 in 12-team leagues. So long as Palmer is right,
the big play will be back in Cincinnati’s offense in a very big
way and Henry will be play a large role in that very thing happening
in 2009.
Cleveland
Jamal Lewis
is in the second year of the three-year deal he signed back in
February 2008, but there is plenty of reason to believe he may
not be around to see another year with the Browns or, at the very
least, not make another start with the team after 2009. With 2,399
career carries, Lewis’ body has more wear than the average 29-year-old
RB (he turns 30 in August). With that in mind, the Browns have
been pleasantly surprised by what they have seen from sixth-round
selection James
Davis from Clemson. Miscast as the “Thunder” in the Tigers’
“Thunder and Lightning” attack with C.J. Spiller, Davis isn’t
necessarily a bowling ball-type inside runner, but he makes for
an interesting mix of Lewis and Jerome
Harrison, who figures to go well beyond the 100 career touches
he has amassed in three seasons with the team. Davis will likely
only see significant fantasy value if Lewis gets hurt, but Harrison
is already drawing comparisons to Leon Washington from new HC
Eric Mangini - a role that fits his talents to a tee - meaning
he should be a nice bench or flex player in PPR leagues and a
decent reserve in non-PPR. The coach has even hinted at some work
on first and second down for Harrison.
There doesn’t figure to be a ton of fantasy value coming
out of the Cleveland offense this year, but if Brady Quinn wins
the QB job as many expect, he should make rookie WR Brian Robiskie
and TE Martin Rucker (assuming Steve Heiden can’t fully
recover from ACL and MCL surgery) usable in some leagues due to
the team‘s wishes to implement a conservative offensive
scheme because they both have dependable hands and will be able
to move the sticks consistently. Braylon Edwards is locked in
as the team’s #1 WR and even given his penchant for drops,
he will draw regular double teams, if not the ire of the coaching
staff. Although he isn’t losing his job anytime soon, Edwards
falls from a WR that went off the board in the second round last
summer to one who could (and maybe should) fall into the sixth
round.
Denver
Don’t be alarmed by the fact that RB Knowshon
Moreno is running with the third team in OTAs. Why? Correll
Buckhalter, one of Moreno’s competitors for the starting job
along with LaMont
Jordan, has already stated that he feels the rookie will be
“a heck of a player in this league”. While praise is usually handed
out pretty easily in the offseason, it rarely comes from someone
competing for the same job. The release of injured J.J. Arrington
earlier in the offseason clears the way for Moreno to receive
the majority of work in the passing game that will throw at least
as many short passes as any Mike Shanahan-coached team has, if
for no other reason than to cater to the game of Kyle
Orton. It should be noted that in HC Josh McDaniel’s three
years as the OC in New England, running backs recorded 232 catches
- an average of 77 per season. Because Buckhalter and Jordan aren’t
exactly stiffs, they will grab the occasional touch, so don’t
expect Matt Forte-like production from the rookie. However, Moreno
should be viewed as a low-end fantasy RB2, with a very real chance
to ascend into low-end fantasy RB1 status by the end of the season.
McDaniels was effusive in his praise last month for Tony
Scheffler, calling the fourth-year player the most skilled
pass-receiving TE he has ever coached, quite a compliment from
someone who just spent a few years with Ben Watson. While Daniel
Graham figures to get the most playing time because of his
run-blocking prowess, Scheffler needs only to stay healthy and
play a complete 16-game schedule for only the second time as a
pro to push his previous career high of 49 receptions when he
last made it from beginning to end in 2007. But it is that same
injury history – and a lack of trust in McDaniels’ praise - that
puts him right on the edge of TE1 territory. As a result, the
safe play would probably be to draft him as a TE2 if possible.
Even if Brandon Marshall drops his contract demands soon and acclimates
himself to McDaniels’ offense, he doesn’t figure to
post his third straight 100-catch season. First, there are a lot
of mouths for Orton to feed in the passing game. Secondly, things
rarely end well with disgruntled WRs. And lastly, there is the
question of how he is recovering from hip surgery. It would come
as no surprise if that trifecta of trouble knocked Marshall from
the for-sure fantasy WR1 ranks into the upper fantasy WR2 group.
In other words, if things aren’t resolved before camp, count
on Marshall being one of the more overrated fantasy WRs this season.
Houston
For many observers, one of the bigger surprises during draft weekend
was that the Texans opted not to select a big back to complement
Steve Slaton. The team is said to be “counting on”
ex-Titan Chris Brown to assume the heavy-lifting portion of the
running game. But since Brown has never played a full 16-game
schedule in his six years in the league (only topping 12 games
twice) and missed the entire 2008 season, it would not come as
a surprise if undrafted rookie free agent Arian Foster takes the
role from him at some point. The team seems to love Ryan Moats
as Slaton’s backup, but since most of his strengths are
also some of Slaton’s best qualities, the ex-Eagle scatback
only relevance to fantasy owners may be as Slaton’s handcuff.
While Matt
Schaub is undoubtedly entrenched as the starting QB, Houston
has an interesting duo of QBs behind its injury-prone signal-caller.
Sage Rosenfels, who was dealt to Minnesota this offseason, capably
manned the backup job for each of his three seasons with the team,
even if he did force the action a bit much when he filled in.
To replace him, the Texans inked Dan
Orlovsky on March 1 primarily based on HC Gary Kubiak’s assertion
that the former Detroit backup has “starter ability”. Then, in
mid-June, they curiously added Rex
Grossman as well. Given that Orlovsky will average around
$3 M/year and Grossman signed a one-year, $620 K deal, the ex-Bear
is the clear No. 3 QB - a title that usually goes to a young player
the coaching staff likes to develop. If this is what the Texans
are also thinking (in regards to Orlovsky being the clear No.
2), fantasy owners who invest in Schaub should probably also carry
the former UConn standout on their roster. In his first two seasons
with Houston, Schaub has played in just 11 games each time - a
significant fact for a team that finished 2008 as the No. 3 team
in total offense. Fantasy owners tend to have long memories when
a player like Orlovsky makes a stupid play like the one he made
last season when he bootlegged himself right out of the end zone
for a safety vs. Minnesota last season. However, for those owners
who plan on counting on Schaub this season, it may in their best
interest to forget that play and remember that Orlovsky was halfway
productive on a dreadful Lions team in 2008 and will have a much
better supporting cast in 2009.
Indianapolis
An improved offensive line could vault
the Colts running game in '09.
Heading into camp, Pierre
Garcon appears to have a moderate lead over Roy
Hall and rookie Austin
Collie for the right to assume the WR3 role for the Colts.
Over the years, that position has attracted a lot of fantasy owners,
with the idea being that whoever is in that role can step up to
the degree that Brandon Stokley did in 2004. While the winner
will certainly be worthy of a roster spot in typical 12-team leagues,
he won’t be usable as anything more than a low-end fantasy WR3,
if not a bye-week fill-in. … While Joseph
Addai deserves some of the blame for Indy’s 31st place finish
in rushing yards and last-place ranking in yards per rush last
year, it is easy to forget the Colts’ RBs were usually working
behind an offensive line that looked nothing like the one the
team envisioned entering the season. C Jeff Saturday missed four
games in the middle, LT Tony Ugoh was absent from Peyton
Manning’s blind side four more times and G Ryan Lilja spent
the entire season on the PUP list. No team is so deep that it
can lose that much quality for that length of time and not feel
the affects of it, and that usually manifests itself in the running
game. As long as Manning is around, the team is never going to
be a run-based team, but expect a much-improved effort from the
run game in 2009. … Speaking of the ground game, rookie RB Donald
Brown has not disappointed, showing all the acceleration and
shiftiness the Colts saw in his workouts.
Until the “consultant” tag situation is cleared up
for former assistants Tom Moore and Howard Mudd, don’t expect
another top-notch offensive effort from the Colts. This drama
has already been covered in this area a few weeks back, so suffice
it to say that until we see Manning, Addai or Reggie Wayne look
into the camera and state that things are back to normal, there
is little reason to think they are. The Colts will still be an
above-average offense, but don’t count on them being elite
until we get some clarification on the new “consultants“.
Jacksonville
David Garrard
may never repeat his 18:3 TD/INT ratio from 2007, but the Jaguars
finally gave him a chance to thrive with the signing of Torry
Holt in the offseason. No one is going to confuse the ex-Ram
standout for the same receiver who posted six straight seasons
of 1,300+ yards receiving, but after years of not being able to
count on such stalwarts such as Matt Jones and Reggie Williams,
Holt is going to seem like a breath of fresh air. He may not improve
much on last year’s 64-catch, 796-yard campaign, but it would
come as a mild surprise if he doesn’t finish near the top of the
league in third-down catches. If he is doing that, he is going
to make it just that much easier for the Jags (and Maurice
Jones-Drew in particular) to pound opponents into submission
via the running game.
Speaking of MJD, it is really hard to find a reason not to like
him in fantasy for 2009. Whether or not he should go #1 overall
in fantasy drafts is debatable, but Jacksonville’s drafting
of OTs Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton along with the free agent
addition of Tra Thomas should ensure that Jones-Drew will have
holes to run through much more than last season. (It should also
mean the Jags’ season will not be wrecked after Week 1 like
it was last season when they saw three linemen go down, including
two for the season, in an Opening Week loss to the Titans.) We
already know that he will get the bulk of the work in the passing
game, so it really comes down to whether or not HC Jack Del Rio
and OC Dirk Koetter decide to take some of MJD’s short-yardage
and goal-line work from him in an effort to preserve him for the
season. Del Rio has already stated he envisions backup RB Greg
Jones to get 5-10 carries/game, but he has yet to officially state
where those rushes will take place. It’s something to think
about, but someone with Jones-Drew’s track record will be
very hard to remove in any situation, making him the closest thing
to a feature back that we see in the league anymore. So with the
improved blocking and about 100 more carries (he had 197 last
season), a 2,000 total-yard season is not out of the question.
Kansas City
What kind of offseason is this when Larry Johnson is on his “best
behavior” and players such as Mike Vrabel and Brian Waters
are not bothering to show up for OTAs? Yes, this is the ominous
start of the Todd Haley era for the Chiefs. LJ apparently didn’t
take well to the possibility of being let go, likely realizing
that a lead-back role and nice contract probably weren’t
waiting for a player with a bad-boy reputation outside of Kansas
City. Johnson should return to his workhorse days - to a degree
- as the Chiefs’ line is not good enough to hold up in pass
protection 40 times per game. On the other hand, the defense is
going to struggle to the point where Kansas City where the team
may need to pass that much.
Vrabel, one of the players the Chiefs were counting on to lay
the foundation of how to win for the new regime, isn’t getting
off to a good start with his new employer. The fact that someone
like Vrabel would skip OTAs is surprising in its own right, but
for him to continue his displeasure with being in Kansas City
into June - about four months after the trade - saying things
such as “I didn’t sign on to play in KC” can’t
be good for a team that sorely needs a happy and committed Vrabel.
With Tony Gonzalez no longer around, Dwayne Bowe can’t help
but be one of the most active receivers in the league this season.
Mark Bradley has long been a fine talent but has been unable to
stay healthy for most of his career while the Chiefs have no idea
if Bobby Engram can squeeze one more season out of his 36-year-old
body like the one he produced in 2007 (94 catches with Seattle)
and not the injury-plagued one he endured in 2008 (47 catches).
Unfortunately, the good money is on the latter.
Miami
After four years of questioning his toughness and conditioning,
undergoing rehab for torn knee ligaments and battling Ricky
Williams for touches out of the Dolphins’ backfield, Year
Five is getting off to a nice start for Ronnie
Brown. The coaching staff is thrilled with Brown’s conditioning,
Williams is apparently starting to show off his age of 32 and
Brown is nearly two years removed from ACL surgery. For an all-around
talent like Brown to have this much going for him on a team that
plays ball-control football as much as Miami does, fantasy owners
should really highlight him as a player who can finally ascend
into RB1 consideration. After all this time, the ‘Fins may actually
allow him to be a feature back in 2009.
For all those owners who got comfortable with Chad Pennington
as a nice steady option on their bench last season, it may be
too much to ask for a repeat in 2009. Pennington, who may never
get the credit for being the QB that he is simply because he isn‘t
all that flashy, will likely be spending most of the season looking
over his shoulder to see when he may be getting pulled for Chad
Henne. Certainly, as long as Pennington has the Dolphins above
.500, he is probably safe. But if Miami enters its Week 6 bye
with anything less than a 3-2 record, Henne may take over. At
the very least, the ‘Fins seem intent on giving Henne the
starting job no later than 2010.
New England
There will be plenty of fantasy points coming out of this backfield
this year, there is little doubt about that. (In 2008 alone using
FF Today scoring, the
Pats scored 405.1 fantasy points from the RB position, good for
sixth in the league. In 2007, when they posted the highest scoring
total in league history, their 317.8 fantasy points was good for
ninth in the league.) Once again, though, those points are likely
to go in four different directions. Here’s what we know: Kevin
Faulk will see most of work on third down and Sammy
Morris should get most of the looks at the goal line. That’s
all we really know. Laurence
Maroney is probably the player that HC Bill Belichick would
like to see take the highest number of carries, but he has yet
to show any kind of durability and special teams coach Scott O’Brien
has hinted he wouldn’t mind seeing him returning kickoffs like
he did during his rookie season. Fred
Taylor is the latest of a long line of aging backs that New
England hopes it can maximize his golden years by using him in
spot duty. Expect Taylor to start in the kind of role the Pats
put LaMont Jordan in last season, but if Faulk were to go down,
his fantasy stock would go up. Likewise, Morris’ stock would rise
if Maroney succumbs to injury once again. Maroney stands to be
a vastly underrated fantasy player this season if he does make
it through unscathed, but the best bets for fantasy production
entering the season would be Faulk and Morris, if only because
we have some idea what their roles will be. With that said, no
one from this team’s RBBC is worth consideration as anything more
than a RB3 in fantasy drafts this summer.
With Tom Brady back, the Pats figure to edge much closer to the
57-43 pass-run split of 2007 than the 51-49 split of 2008. But
anyone expecting New England to transition right back into the
589-point juggernaut it was two seasons ago is kidding themselves.
Undoubtedly, everyone in the passing game will benefit from Brady’s
presence, but his fantasy owners will need to prepare themselves
for a slow start. But don’t feel bad for this group, Randy
Moss should return to his perch atop the WR fantasy ranks while
Wes Welker may be a near lock for another 100-catch season. And
after Brady regains the trust in his knee again - it won’t
happen by Week 1 - he will once again be the fantasy QB to own.
But only time will answer the question as to when he will be comfortable,
so fantasy owners will be gambling ever so slightly that he’ll
get “it” back in Week 4 and not Week 10.
NY Jets
Jerricho
Cotchery and Dustin
Keller are the only two sure things coming out of the Jets’
passing game as they enter training camp. It would make sense
that David
Clowney will be given every opportunity to win the job given
his speed and explosion, but until he can remain healthy for any
length of time, Chansi
Stuckey figures to be the most likely candidate to start the
most games. However, given the amount New York plans to run the
ball, it may not be worth speculating on who will be the starter
opposite Cotchery for fantasy purposes. For comparison’s sake,
Derrick Mason’s 80 catches led the Ravens last season. Baltimore’s
other WRs combined for 55 receptions. Considering the similar
philosophies and similar personnel, that is probably a reasonable
expectation for Gang Green‘s wideouts in 2009.
It is becoming more and more apparent that whether the Jets want
to say it or not, if the QB competition between Kellen Clemens
and rookie Mark Sanchez is anywhere close to even, Sanchez will
get the nod.
There were rumblings in early June the Jets may have told Thomas
Jones they would try to trade him if he reported to camp, which
he ultimately did. Considering that rookie Shonn
Greene has already signed, there could be some truth to it.
Unlike Jones, however, the Jets need Leon
Washington around if Greene is the workhorse because the former
Iowa standout is unlikely to every become a good enough receiver
to be a three-down back. Given the fact that it may start a rookie
QB, New York would find the going twice as difficult if it lined
up a rookie RB that was essentially useless in the passing game.
With that in mind, the Jets would be wise to keep Jones so the
team isn’t so young at some of the more important offensive positions
and so their attack isn’t any more predictable than it already
figures to be.
Oakland
Just like fantasy owners, the Raiders will have to make a decision
on Darren McFadden. For the most part, no one got a good look
at the most divisive rookie in fantasy circles last season. McFadden,
who languished after the first couple weeks of the season due
to a toe injury suffered early in 2008, ended up watching Justin
Fargas take many of the carries most Oakland fans hoped a healthy
DMC would be running away with for double-digit touchdowns. Now
with McFadden looking spry again - and if we know anything about
the Raiders - it is that Al Davis wants to see his athletes run
and most expect McFadden to turn the tables on Fargas in 2009.
In short, McFadden should be in line for the 228 touches Fargas
received last season. And while Fargas hasn’t really done
much to lose the starting job, expect Michael Bush to receive
most of the 142 touches DMC had in 2008 while Fargas probably
gets little more than the 114 touches Bush had a season ago. Got
that?
Rookie Darius
Heyward-Bey really needed to get off to a fast start; unfortunately,
the only things he has picked up quickly are hamstring injuries.
For a WR whose game is speed (and early reputation will be staked
on how often he blows by the CB opposite him), this is not a good
sign. DHB was already facing an uphill battle at picking up the
pro game in his first season, so the chances that he will not
start right away are growing. It is beginning to look more and
more like Chaz
Schilens, who continues to be a standout WR in Raiders’ camp,
and Johnnie
Lee Higgins may be the only two WRs worth any kind of consideration
in fantasy leagues this summer - and even that may be a stretch.
On the plus side, the team has been very happy with fourth-round
WR Louis
Murphy, calling him the “surprise of their rookie class”.
Pittsburgh
OC Bruce Arians stated in an interview last week that only 19
of the 46 sacks the team allowed were actually attributed to the
offensive line. While it is a nice sentiment and may take some
of the heat off the front five for now, even a QB the size of
Ben Roethlisberger won’t be able to last much longer if
the Steelers refuse to address their offensive line problems.
The 2008 edition of the Steelers finished 23rd in rushing yards
and 22nd in total offense. The rushing performance is completely
atypical of a Pittsburgh offense and was its worst finish by far
since the days of the “Tommy Gun” offense in 2003.
Sure, Willie Parker missed his fair share of time, but Mewelde
Moore filled in nicely. So even if Arians wasn’t trying
to pump his offensive line’s confidence, the fact of the
matter is the Steelers were very lucky that Big Ben didn’t
miss any games and DC Dick LeBeau is the mastermind he is with
their defense.
While it remains unclear how Pittsburgh intends to divide the
work in the running game, expect Rashard
Mendenhall to take a nice chunk of carries away from Willie
Parker. Parker, who will turn 29 during the season as he enters
the final year of his contract, hasn’t broken a run longer than
34 yards since 2006 and will be hard-pressed to hold off last
year’s first-round pick - the one Arians compared to a young Edgerrin
James - much longer. Granted, Parker is no slouch and reportedly
feels he has recaptured the speed he felt he lost two seasons
ago, but Pittsburgh will be tempted to see what it has in Mendenhall.
A 60-40 split in Parker’s favor sounds just about right as the
Steelers - not a team that has traditionally given a third contract
to many of their players - allow Mendenhall to showcase himself
enough to get an idea of whether or not they can let Parker go
elsewhere at the end of the season.
San Diego
LaDainian Tomlinson has become a popular target for a player on
the decline, due in large part to his declining numbers the past
two seasons and the fact that he turned 30 last Tuesday. Before
fantasy owners throw one of fantasy’s most dependable backs
into a retirement home, however, consider that LT had next to
nothing go right for him in 2008 and he still finished 7th among
all RBs. If owners want to knock him off his elite-back perch
because he has dealt with injuries the past couple of seasons,
so be it. But Tomlinson suffered from multiple things last season
no RB can overcome: a toe injury early in the season that anybody
who ever played football would understand why he was unable to
show off his trademark explosion through the hole and a groin
injury later in the season that severely hampered his ability
to push off his jump cut. The second reason was San Diego’s
complete inability to keep defenses from blowing holes through
its interior offensive line. Well, LT is fully recovered from
his injuries and the Chargers addressed their offensive interior
by drafting Louis Vasquez and Tyronne Green, two players who were
highly regarded for their toughness. Vasquez or veteran Kynan
Forney will grab the RG job and the winner of that competition
figures to give San Diego a powerful drive blocker with more youthful
legs than the departed Mike Goff. C Nick Hardwick is also healthy,
something that wasn’t true at the start of last season.
All this is to say that if this all-around newfound health remains
throughout the preseason - and for LT it will because he doesn’t
play in preseason games - Tomlinson may be underrated for the
first time in years. Curtis Martin, who like LT subscribed to
a rigorous offseason conditioning ritual, also dealt with a down
age-29 season before putting up two more productive fantasy seasons.
While 30 is a nice number for fantasy owners to observe for declining
RBs, conditioning can sometimes extend that number by a year or
two, something that should happen here. Darren Sproles is a definitely
a player that LT owners need to handcuff their star to in the
middle rounds and will even have value for those owners who don‘t
grab Tomlinson, but the point to be made here is that LT should
not fall out of the top five picks quite yet.
Speaking of “injury risks”, Antonio
Gates is reportedly showing no ill effects from the toe injury
that dogged him all of last season. With T.O. out of Dallas, Jason
Witten probably figures to get the most play as the first TE off
the board, but it hard to argue with Gates, who may come a bit
cheaper than his early fourth-round grade of a season ago. Even
with the emergence of players around him such as Vincent
Jackson, Gates should not last past the first half of the
fifth round in 12-team leagues.
Tennessee
Not usually a team that finds themselves in the news all that
often, the Titans have unwillingly made some off-field noise this
offseason. Granted, Albert
Haynesworth’s departure probably couldn’t have been avoided,
but Vince
Young’s handful of somewhat conflicting interviews served
as a nice warm-up to the divorce of “Smash & Dash” tandem from
last season. As usual, the media has and will continue to overplay
both angles of said “divorce” serves as a nice transition to LenDale
White, who has reportedly dropped about 30 pounds. Certainly,
it seems oddly coincidental that he would make such an effort
in his contract year, but is the weight loss a good thing for
his role as a short-yardage back? White never has been nor will
he ever be a burner, but his girth was one of the few things he
had going in his favor (be it right or wrong) in his battle for
playing time against “Every Coaches’ Dream” Chris
Johnson. It seems pretty clear Johnson will receive even more
work this season, but expect White to tug just enough at Johnson’s
value where he draws the ire of the second-year back’s fantasy
owners. White will somehow find a way to get himself a nice little
deal for 2010.
After struggling to get through last season with one WR who QB
Kerry Collins could trust (Justin Gage, when he was healthy),
Tennessee is touting three candidates heading into July. Gage
is reportedly “wowing” everybody and appears locked
in as Collins’ go-to receiver for the time being. Rookie
Kenny Britt and free agent signee Nate Washington figure to cut
into each other’s value until Britt’s knowledge of
the pro game catches up with his wonderful talent base. After
averaging 19.1 yards per catch in 2008, expect Gage to assume
more of a possession-WR-type role this upcoming season considering
he has two big-play threats competing for time opposite him. Thus,
Gage probably slots in as a mid-range fantasy WR3 while Britt
and Washington will put up the unpredictable big game and serve
as good bench players in 12-team leagues.
With the additions of Britt and Washington (plus the drafting
of TE Jared Cook, who is equally impressing the team with his
amazing catches and infuriating them with his mind-numbing drops),
Collins could move into a very usable QB2 in most leagues in 2009.
With so much attention to be paid on the running game, there’s
no reason that Collins can’t hit one of his big-play WRs
down the field on a regular basis. He probably won’t ever
be the player that an owner wants to start every week, but expect
his TD totals to climb from 12 a season ago to between 16-18 with
better receivers and a full training camp knowing he will be the
starter.
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