NFC East & NFC North Breakdowns
8/11/09
NFC East: DAL
| NYG | PHI | WAS
NFC North: CHI
| DET | GB | MIN
After spending the last two weeks (AFC
East/North | AFC West/South)
lobbying fantasy owners to consider the schedule a vital part of
their draft preparation, I feel it is now time to inform each of
you why it is so important to take in as much of the preseason news
as possible, including the injuries that occur before teams even
start playing exhibition games and, maybe more importantly, what
they mean to the player’s team and their opponents. In just
the last week, a handful of teams lost key cogs for the season:
Philadelphia (MLB Stewart Bradley), Carolina (DT Maake Kemoeatu),
Cincinnati (TE Reggie Kelly) and Atlanta (WR Harry Douglas). On
the surface, none of these injuries seem to be worth worrying about
for most fantasy owners. But football - more than any other sport
- is a highly dependent game in regards to how a loss or two to
one part of the team can impact the entire team.
So before I continue, let's take a deeper look into what impact
each of these injuries may have on their teams:
Stewart
Bradley - In Philly's defensive scheme, the MLB is in some
regards an extension of the defensive line. The Eagles ideal MIKE
backer is usually big and a terrific run-stopper (think Jeremiah
Trotter in his prime). At 6-4, 260 pounds, Bradley definitely
fit the bill as a prototypical Philly 'backer, but the Eagles
will now be hoping 5-11, 246-pound Joe Mays will be able to step
up, at least on a two-down basis. What this means is that, along
with the passing of DC Jim Johnson and loss of S Brian Dawkins,
fantasy owners should no longer regard Philadelphia as an elite
run defense this season. That should come as great news for owners
of Clinton Portis, Marion Barber, and Brandon Jacobs – just to
name a few.
Maake Kemoeatu
- The loss of this 6-5, 345-pound run-plugger likely will contribute
to another sacking of a good run defense from last season. In
one of the two games Kemoeatu missed last season, the Giants rolled
up 301 rushing yards vs. Carolina. Certainly, not every game will
go that way, but it is pretty damning to consider that before
that game, the Panthers had not given up even half of that rushing
total against any of their other opponents. While his loss will
greatly hurt MLB Jon Beason's ability to move freely from sideline
to sideline, a residual impact could be felt on the Panthers'
running game as they probably won't be able to run the ball 504
times again this season if the defense can't stop opponents from
running on them. Thus, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart
could both suffer.
Reggie
Kelly - One of the best run-blocking TEs in the league, Kelly's
loss is a huge blow to the Bengals, who desperately want to balance
out their potential for a high-flying passing game with a physical
running game. Though many people probably are not all that familiar
with Kelly, his blocking prowess contributed to Rudi Johnson's
best seasons in Cincy. Without Kelly, the Bengals may be primed
to throw much more than they hoped to this season. While that
is good for a handful of Cincinnati WRs and Carson Palmer, Cedric
Benson takes a fantasy hit.
Harry Douglas
- Douglas is the first of the players listed here that would have
found his way onto many non-IDP fantasy rosters as a reserve this
summer. Just like the Bengals’ Chris Henry - a WR with a non-starting
role - I was high on Douglas to post fairly big numbers in 2009.
His loss secures Michael Jenkins as a low-end WR3 or solid WR4
in 12-team leagues and makes Tony Gonzalez and Jerious Norwood
even more valuable as many of the short passes Douglas would have
seen now figure to go the direction of Gonzo or Norwood.
I mention the above players to not only inform of the impact
their injuries may have on their own team, but to also alert (or
remind) fantasy owners that in just over a week, we have seen
four injuries that will affect a number of player values this
season. Next week will likely bring us just as many. The point
to be made is projecting player stats is an ever-evolving and
continual task - especially during the preseason - so the 10th-best
RB one day in August may become the 20th-best prospect if one
of his All-Pro lineman gets hurt.
Bear in mind that while the final numbers are important, they
are 15-game totals because most fantasy seasons have a Week 16
title game. For those unfamiliar with the way I project player
stats and individual week-to-week consistency (or for those who
need a refresher), please give PSA: RB
article a read for an introductory course in Preseason Schedule
Analysis. By now, I'm hoping that each of you have a pretty good
understanding of my methodology, so let's see how the NFC East
and NFC North shake down in 2009.
Note: The grey
highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game.
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys |
|
Totals |
TB |
NYG |
CAR |
DEN |
KC |
bye |
ATL |
SEA |
PHI |
GB |
WAS |
OAK |
NYG |
SD |
NO |
WAS |
(Run) |
|
4.2 |
3.8 |
4.4 |
5 |
4.9 |
|
4.6 |
4.2 |
4 |
4 |
3.7 |
4.9 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
4.1 |
3.7 |
(Pass) |
|
7.4 |
6.6 |
6.3 |
6.8 |
7.5 |
|
7.1 |
7 |
6.4 |
6.8 |
6 |
6.9 |
6.6 |
6.6 |
6.7 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
T Romo |
3530 |
235 |
220 |
215 |
190 |
245 |
|
300 |
250 |
220 |
185 |
255 |
270 |
200 |
275 |
255 |
215 |
TD |
21 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
|
3 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
INT |
14 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Ru Yards |
80 |
5 |
10 |
10 |
0 |
5 |
|
5 |
0 |
10 |
0 |
15 |
0 |
10 |
0 |
10 |
0 |
Ru TD |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
M Barber |
975 |
75 |
50 |
80 |
115 |
55 |
|
60 |
40 |
65 |
40 |
50 |
125 |
25 |
75 |
65 |
55 |
Ru TD |
10 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
Re Yards |
395 |
25 |
35 |
15 |
10 |
25 |
|
30 |
45 |
30 |
5 |
25 |
0 |
35 |
50 |
40 |
25 |
Re TD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
48 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
|
4 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
5 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
F Jones |
465 |
45 |
15 |
60 |
55 |
70 |
|
55 |
45 |
20 |
25 |
15 |
60 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Ru TD |
3 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Re Yards |
115 |
15 |
0 |
5 |
20 |
0 |
|
15 |
25 |
0 |
5 |
0 |
30 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Re TD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
15 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
|
2 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
T Choice |
410 |
15 |
15 |
0 |
35 |
20 |
|
15 |
60 |
25 |
25 |
20 |
40 |
30 |
45 |
40 |
25 |
Ru TD |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Re Yards |
50 |
0 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
|
0 |
5 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
0 |
5 |
10 |
5 |
Re TD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
7 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R Williams |
895 |
65 |
45 |
70 |
35 |
105 |
|
75 |
45 |
55 |
45 |
75 |
30 |
55 |
75 |
70 |
50 |
Re TD |
7 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
Rec |
69 |
5 |
3 |
6 |
2 |
8 |
|
5 |
3 |
6 |
5 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
P Crayton |
535 |
35 |
30 |
25 |
35 |
35 |
|
40 |
45 |
30 |
50 |
40 |
15 |
40 |
30 |
40 |
45 |
Re TD |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
42 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
|
3 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
M Austin |
305 |
15 |
25 |
20 |
30 |
0 |
|
35 |
25 |
10 |
15 |
25 |
45 |
0 |
25 |
15 |
20 |
Re TD |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
24 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
|
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
J Witten |
905 |
70 |
45 |
55 |
60 |
50 |
|
80 |
35 |
60 |
45 |
65 |
110 |
60 |
75 |
55 |
40 |
Re TD |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
Rec |
84 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
5 |
|
7 |
4 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
10 |
5 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
M Bennett |
330 |
10 |
30 |
25 |
0 |
25 |
|
25 |
25 |
30 |
20 |
25 |
35 |
10 |
15 |
25 |
30 |
Re TD |
4 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
35 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
3 |
|
3 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
|
It seems as though every team talks about running the ball, being
more physical or something of the like every offseason. The Cowboys
will be one of the few teams that follow through on that assertion
in 2009. Fortunately, the philosophy change is both "Romo-friendly"
and timely after looking at the schedule. Only four matchups - two
each vs. the Giants and Redskins - appear to be worth avoiding,
although I do expect the run defenses of Seattle, San Diego and
New Orleans to improve dramatically. If all of those teams do indeed
bounce back, the second-half schedule could be a bit trickier than
what it looks like right now. The good news, however, is that Dallas
has a very good run-blocking line and one that can neutralize most
defensive fronts. Further consider the Cowboys get four games against
the AFC West and two more against defenses (Tampa Bay and Carolina)
early on that figure to be something less than what they were a
season ago vs. the run. While I don't expect a 2008 Ravens-like
592 carries out of the running game, the Cowboys have the defense
and the depth at RB to exceed the 500-carry mark if they choose.
(As a point of reference, Dallas ran just 401 times in 2008.) A
further point of reference is that of the seven teams that ran the
ball more than 500 times last season, each team ran for at least
2,199 yards and all but one team (New England) made the playoffs.
The main question is: how will the workload be split? If the Cowboys
do hit 500 carries, I imagine Marion
Barber will see about 225 carries, Felix
Jones about 150 and Tashard
Choice about 125, making for a 45-30-25 split with Barber getting
most of the goal-line work. As you can plainly see, I don't think
Jones will make it though the season yet again, but if he does,
feel free to give him about 600-700 yards rushing. I don't think,
however, he has the build necessary to become a full-time complement
to Barber, thus giving Choice some definite value. Interestingly,
an injury to either Barber or Jones greatly benefits Choice, but
not either of the two "starters". In other words, Choice is best
suited for the physical work should Barber go down while he would
take on the Julius Jones-role in this offense if Felix were injured.
Coat-tailing off the seven 500-carry teams I mentioned above,
only the Giants and Patriots attempted more than 453 passes in
2008. Using Romo's career 8.1 YPA as a barometer, that number
of attempts would give Romo roughly 3,669 yards in 2009. Assuming
both Roy
Williams and Jason
Witten hit the 1,000-yard mark this season (far from a given),
that number still seems a bit high for Romo. Add in that Dallas
no longer can count on Terrell
Owens for 10 TDs this season and one has to wonder just how
far Romo's fantasy stock will fall. Five red matchups appear on
his schedule, but a deeper look reveals that each of the final
four teams on Dallas' schedule is a heavy-blitzing team (or will
be this season). The Giants and Redskins will be tough regardless,
but I don't foresee fantasy-playoff worthy performances coming
vs. the Chargers in Week 14 or on the road in New Orleans in Week
15. Before that, however, Romo should be serviceable but he isn't
likely to fulfill his current ADP of 5.11. Because this offense
will be run-heavy and have two TEs on the field a lot of the time,
don't look for much WR fantasy value outside of Roy Williams and
maybe Patrick Crayton, if the latter locks down the WR2 spot.
I do expect a substantial increase in production from backup TE
Martellus
Bennett, who finished as the 24th-best TE in fantasy last
season despite only catching 20 passes (on 27 targets). Both those
numbers could easily double - in fact, the second-year TE could
actually end up gnawing away at the value of Jason Witten just
a bit.
N.Y. Giants |
|
Totals |
WAS |
DAL |
TB |
KC |
OAK |
NO |
ARI |
PHI |
SD |
bye |
ATL |
DEN |
DAL |
PHI |
WAS |
CAR |
(Run) |
|
3.7 |
4 |
4.2 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.1 |
4.4 |
4 |
4.1 |
|
4.6 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
3.7 |
4.4 |
(Pass) |
|
6 |
6.1 |
7.4 |
7.5 |
6.9 |
6.7 |
6.7 |
6.4 |
6.6 |
|
7.1 |
6.8 |
6.1 |
6.4 |
6 |
6.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
E Manning |
3335 |
225 |
190 |
280 |
185 |
210 |
265 |
205 |
220 |
210 |
|
250 |
170 |
230 |
190 |
240 |
265 |
TD |
19 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
2 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
INT |
10 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
B Jacobs |
1070 |
85 |
70 |
85 |
75 |
110 |
45 |
0 |
0 |
90 |
|
70 |
115 |
90 |
100 |
65 |
70 |
Ru TD |
13 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
Re Yards |
105 |
10 |
0 |
15 |
5 |
0 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
15 |
|
10 |
5 |
10 |
0 |
20 |
5 |
Re TD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
17 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
|
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
A Bradshaw |
760 |
20 |
40 |
55 |
80 |
30 |
60 |
75 |
45 |
25 |
|
100 |
50 |
30 |
30 |
35 |
85 |
Ru TD |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
Re Yards |
250 |
15 |
10 |
25 |
0 |
10 |
35 |
0 |
40 |
30 |
|
15 |
20 |
10 |
15 |
10 |
15 |
Re TD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
27 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
|
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
A Brown/ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D Ware |
380 |
25 |
15 |
30 |
20 |
15 |
20 |
55 |
75 |
25 |
|
0 |
35 |
15 |
30 |
0 |
20 |
Ru TD |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Re Yards |
50 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
0 |
5 |
0 |
10 |
5 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
5 |
10 |
0 |
5 |
Re TD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
7 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
S Smith |
750 |
55 |
30 |
60 |
45 |
55 |
70 |
40 |
25 |
60 |
|
45 |
60 |
30 |
25 |
70 |
80 |
Re TD |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
Rec |
62 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
|
3 |
5 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D Hixon |
740 |
65 |
40 |
80 |
50 |
30 |
80 |
65 |
55 |
15 |
|
75 |
20 |
55 |
45 |
30 |
35 |
Re TD |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
43 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
|
6 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
H Nicks |
530 |
20 |
40 |
15 |
35 |
0 |
40 |
45 |
30 |
15 |
|
50 |
35 |
65 |
20 |
65 |
55 |
Re TD |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
Rec |
38 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
|
4 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
S Moss |
380 |
25 |
35 |
30 |
20 |
45 |
10 |
20 |
35 |
0 |
|
30 |
10 |
35 |
50 |
15 |
20 |
Re TD |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
32 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
0 |
|
3 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
K Boss |
200 |
10 |
0 |
15 |
10 |
30 |
5 |
25 |
0 |
25 |
|
15 |
5 |
20 |
5 |
0 |
35 |
Re TD |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
23 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
2 |
|
2 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
T Beckum |
330 |
25 |
35 |
30 |
20 |
35 |
15 |
0 |
30 |
50 |
|
10 |
15 |
0 |
20 |
30 |
15 |
Re TD |
4 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
33 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
4 |
|
1 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
|
Considering the Giants rushed for over 200 yards in a game six
times last season (with four of those performances coming against
good or great run defenses like Dallas, Baltimore, Philadelphia
and Carolina), it isn't too hard to imagine that with most of
the cast returning for another season New York could have similar
success running the football in 2009. If the Giants were able
to average five yards/carry on 502 carries after playing six games
vs. their own division and two more against the likes of the Ravens
and Steelers, I can't imagine how the NFC South and AFC West will
fare much better. In fact, on this year’s slate, only the
Redskins should give fantasy owners pause. The injuries mentioned
in the opening figure to remove three potential roadblocks (Philly
twice, Carolina in Week 16) - so if Brandon Jacobs can somehow
put together a full 16-game season (I have him missing two games
and part of a third) - he is line for a career year, as is Ahmad
Bradshaw. While I'm not going to call Bradshaw the next Derrick
Ward (as he has to fend off the likes of Danny Ware and Andre
Brown for that kind of role), the truth of the matter is that
with 100 or so more carries than he had in 2008, he could give
the Giants their second pair of 1,000-yard rushers in as many
seasons. At this point, I have New York averaging 147 yards/game
on the ground - ten less than a season ago - so even though I
thought I was being liberal in my projections with the RBs, I
may need to increase my expectation as we move deeper into the
preseason.
It's a good thing the Giants have such a dominating running game
(and that Eli
Manning just got his big new contract) because I'm not sure
that New York has the personnel necessary to threaten many of
its opponents in the passing game consistently. The Giants have
repeatedly expressed their desire this offseason to hit on more
deep throws, but only Domenik
Hixon has proven he can do that on a fairly regular basis.
Furthermore, Steve
Smith has established himself as Manning's favorite target
and he seems more comfortable in the short-to-intermediate passing
game. As a result, I have New York pegged for seven red matchups
in the passing game and the same spread-the-wealth approach that
occurred after Plaxico Burress' departure in 2008. Worse yet,
the first two and final four matchups all qualify as difficult
matchups - especially for a team without an elite WR - so it would
be hard to recommend Smith, Hixon or any other Giants WR for that
matter during the most important times of the fantasy season.
So when it comes right down to it, trying to count on a Giants
WR will be difficult. I'm a fan of Travis
Beckum's abilities and feel that he ultimately will steal
whatever fantasy value Kevin
Boss had, but he'll need a strong showing in the preseason
to fulfill my expectations for him. No matter how difficult the
opponent, New York will probably be happy to run the ball and
let the defense do its thing. Manning figures to connect on the
deep ball a few times this season, but it probably won't happen
with enough regularity or predictability for fantasy owners. If
owners must own a member of this passing game, eye Manning as
a mid-range QB2 or Smith as a low-end WR3.
Philadelphia Eagles |
|
Totals |
CAR |
NO |
KC |
bye |
TB |
OAK |
WAS |
NYG |
DAL |
SD |
CHI |
WAS |
ATL |
NYG |
SF |
DEN |
(Run) |
|
4.4 |
4.1 |
4.9 |
|
4.2 |
4.9 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
4 |
4.1 |
3.8 |
3.7 |
4.6 |
3.8 |
4 |
5 |
(Pass) |
|
6.3 |
6.7 |
7.5 |
|
7.4 |
6.9 |
6 |
6.6 |
6.1 |
6.6 |
6.8 |
6 |
7.1 |
6.6 |
7 |
6.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D McNabb |
3655 |
230 |
280 |
215 |
|
240 |
190 |
215 |
210 |
260 |
270 |
260 |
195 |
235 |
295 |
270 |
290 |
TD |
24 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
INT |
11 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
Ru Yards |
115 |
15 |
0 |
0 |
|
10 |
0 |
15 |
20 |
15 |
10 |
5 |
0 |
10 |
10 |
5 |
0 |
Ru TD |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
B Westbrook |
840 |
45 |
40 |
80 |
|
65 |
105 |
35 |
45 |
60 |
75 |
0 |
75 |
0 |
25 |
75 |
115 |
Ru TD |
7 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
Re Yards |
420 |
30 |
40 |
10 |
|
35 |
20 |
55 |
25 |
35 |
25 |
0 |
5 |
0 |
60 |
35 |
45 |
Re TD |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
Rec |
49 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
|
4 |
2 |
7 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
7 |
4 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
L McCoy |
730 |
65 |
55 |
60 |
|
30 |
45 |
55 |
30 |
35 |
15 |
80 |
30 |
110 |
40 |
35 |
45 |
Ru TD |
5 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Re Yards |
220 |
15 |
20 |
5 |
|
15 |
20 |
10 |
5 |
15 |
5 |
35 |
20 |
30 |
10 |
5 |
10 |
Re TD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
33 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
|
2 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D Jackson |
1065 |
50 |
80 |
100 |
|
55 |
20 |
35 |
70 |
90 |
60 |
80 |
60 |
115 |
75 |
120 |
55 |
Re TD |
6 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
Rec |
76 |
4 |
6 |
6 |
|
5 |
2 |
3 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
4 |
7 |
6 |
8 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
K Curtis |
670 |
60 |
25 |
35 |
|
40 |
35 |
35 |
25 |
40 |
80 |
35 |
50 |
65 |
30 |
45 |
70 |
Re TD |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
Rec |
50 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
|
3 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
6 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
J Avant |
415 |
35 |
55 |
25 |
|
45 |
50 |
10 |
25 |
0 |
45 |
15 |
10 |
0 |
40 |
25 |
35 |
Re TD |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
35 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
|
3 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
J Maclin |
450 |
10 |
35 |
25 |
|
10 |
30 |
40 |
10 |
60 |
20 |
35 |
25 |
10 |
55 |
35 |
50 |
Re TD |
4 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
40 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
|
1 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
B Celek |
415 |
30 |
25 |
15 |
|
40 |
15 |
30 |
50 |
20 |
35 |
60 |
25 |
15 |
25 |
5 |
25 |
Re TD |
4 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
Rec |
43 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
|
3 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
2 |
4 |
7 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
For any fantasy owner that doesn't mind securing WR and RB talent
in the first four rounds and waiting a bit for a QB, Donovan
McNabb should once again be a nice consolation prize. Not
only should he give his owners top-notch production for a medium-sized
draft choice price, but he and his WRs get a couple of pretty
nice matchups to wrap up the fantasy season when they host the
Niners and Broncos in Weeks 15-16. Unlike most cold-weather teams,
there's little reason to worry about the Eagles turning to the
running game in the snow as HC Andy Reid has proven time and time
again that his team will pass no matter how warm or cold it is
(54:46 pass-run split since 2004 with no fewer than 544 pass attempts
in any season). So while McNabb has turned into more of a pocket
passer over the years, he has evolved into a much better QB. After
turning in his first full season in four years in 2008, missed
games should be less of a concern, but it is clear from his 5.12
ADP that his potential owners aren't quite convinced. However,
consider that with an aging pair of tackles last season, McNabb
was sacked just 23 times last season. Thus, assuming new LT Jason
Peters returns to elite status and proves last season's disturbing
play (was charged with allowing more sacks than any other lineman
in 2008) had more to do with his contract situation than anything
else AND new RT Shawn Andrews can carry over his play from the
inside (RG) to the outside, McNabb's chances of getting hurt should
be slim. From Weeks 7-14, Philly will meet all the red matchups
and considering the Eagles' passing game numbers in difficult
matchups last season, McNabb and DeSean
Jackson should be solid plays just about every week. I don't
expect otherworldly numbers from rookie Jeremy
Maclin, but he could easily move into fantasy WR3 territory
should someone like Kevin
Curtis miss an extended amount of time. Otherwise, it would
not come as any surprise to me if Brent
Celek emerged as a weekly play at some point this season.
His performance in the playoffs spoke not only to his ability
to produce, but also to the trust McNabb has in him. I have him
pegged for a season similar to L.J.
Smith in 2006 (50-611-5) and believe his current ADP of 13.08
is about three rounds too low.
The running schedule looks very similar to the passing games'
slate. Unlike the passing game, the running game won't be as matchup-proof
as Brian Westbrook has made it in recent years. There was already
a plan in place to reduce the veteran's workload, however, the
team added rookie LeSean McCoy in the draft. It’s a good
thing, because offseason ankle surgery has turned Westbrook into
even more of an injury risk than he usually is – he has
yet to play a full 16-game season in his career. When healthy,
Westbrook is a PPR dynamo who seems to produce at least 100 total
yards/game regardless of the opponent (in 99 career games, he's
actually averaged 94 yards/game from scrimmage). With Westbrook
turning 30 before the start of the season and considering his
propensity for injury, Westbrook should not be counted on for
more than 12 games, making McCoy an interesting option for any
owner, not just Westbrook owners. The one benefit of this development
is that Westbrook comes as cheap as he has in years, meaning it
isn't out of the question to use him as a RB2 in 12 teams - an
exciting proposition for those owners who like to go RB-RB with
their first two picks. Whichever back is in the Eagles backfield
this season, expect him to produce against a schedule that features
some of the league's weaker defenses of the AFC West and NFC South.
Washington Redskins |
|
Totals |
NYG |
STL |
DET |
TB |
CAR |
KC |
PHI |
bye |
ATL |
DEN |
DAL |
PHI |
NO |
OAK |
NYG |
DAL |
(Run) |
|
3.8 |
4.6 |
4.7 |
4.2 |
4.4 |
4.9 |
4 |
|
4.6 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
4.1 |
4.9 |
3.8 |
4 |
(Pass) |
|
6.6 |
7.6 |
7.9 |
7.4 |
6.3 |
7.5 |
6.4 |
|
7.1 |
6.8 |
6.1 |
6.4 |
6.7 |
6.9 |
6.6 |
6.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
J Campbell |
3240 |
235 |
230 |
215 |
240 |
165 |
220 |
170 |
|
280 |
220 |
215 |
175 |
225 |
210 |
195 |
245 |
TD |
19 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
|
3 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
INT |
11 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C Portis |
1245 |
70 |
120 |
105 |
80 |
90 |
110 |
110 |
|
75 |
90 |
100 |
30 |
60 |
85 |
55 |
65 |
Ru TD |
9 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
Re Yards |
160 |
10 |
15 |
0 |
10 |
5 |
10 |
20 |
|
10 |
5 |
0 |
25 |
15 |
5 |
15 |
15 |
Re TD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
25 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
1 |
1 |
0 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
L Betts |
480 |
25 |
35 |
15 |
35 |
20 |
55 |
15 |
|
40 |
65 |
20 |
40 |
35 |
25 |
10 |
45 |
Ru TD |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Re Yards |
90 |
5 |
5 |
0 |
10 |
0 |
5 |
0 |
|
10 |
5 |
20 |
5 |
10 |
0 |
5 |
10 |
Re TD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
16 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
|
2 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
S Moss |
790 |
55 |
40 |
110 |
65 |
35 |
75 |
45 |
|
80 |
25 |
65 |
15 |
35 |
10 |
55 |
80 |
Re TD |
5 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
Rec |
67 |
4 |
5 |
7 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
4 |
|
5 |
3 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
6 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
A Randle El |
325 |
30 |
20 |
15 |
15 |
0 |
40 |
15 |
|
25 |
20 |
0 |
30 |
30 |
40 |
25 |
20 |
Re TD |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
31 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
5 |
1 |
|
2 |
4 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D Thomas |
685 |
45 |
60 |
30 |
55 |
30 |
25 |
50 |
|
65 |
40 |
35 |
45 |
70 |
35 |
50 |
50 |
Re TD |
5 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
Rec |
52 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
|
5 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
M Kelly |
220 |
10 |
20 |
0 |
0 |
15 |
25 |
5 |
|
15 |
25 |
0 |
20 |
20 |
50 |
15 |
0 |
Re TD |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
20 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C Cooley |
820 |
70 |
55 |
40 |
85 |
55 |
40 |
25 |
|
70 |
85 |
70 |
35 |
35 |
65 |
30 |
60 |
Re TD |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
72 |
6 |
6 |
3 |
8 |
6 |
4 |
2 |
|
5 |
6 |
7 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
F Davis |
150 |
10 |
15 |
20 |
0 |
25 |
0 |
10 |
|
5 |
15 |
25 |
0 |
10 |
5 |
0 |
10 |
Re TD |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
18 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
|
1 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
|
One of the many reasons I believe the PSA is such a strong tool
is that I can easily see what players I want to begin my season
with...and what players I want to end my season with. One glance
at the Redskins' fantasy schedule should quickly reveal that I
feel Washington players fall under the former category. With an
ADP of 2.10, Clinton Portis is going later than he has in some
time. As much as I would like to believe that his stock has fallen
because owners have taken a look at Weeks 15-16, I tend to believe
his ADP is a reflection of the second-half fade that affected
the entire team in 2008. (Just how bad was it? Portis averaged
five yds/carry through the first half but managed just 3.5 YPC
in the second half of the season.) While it is easy to suggest
that Portis simply tired and "must be wearing down",
the more rational explanation for the soon-to-be 28-year-old's
late-season demise was that the weaker run defenses of the Saints,
Rams, Browns and Lions during the first eight games were replaced
with the Steelers, Ravens, Cowboys, Bengals and Eagles in the
second set of eight contests. (Look at the schedule people!) As
my loyal readers already know (or have already figured out), I'd
much rather have my RB's second-half schedule all white or green.
Of the teams that appear on the Redskins' schedule after their
Week 8 bye, only Denver and Oakland stand out as opponents who
Portis should be able to handle with some degree of ease. Atlanta
is also a possibility to join the Broncos and Raiders, but the
point to be made is that after Week 10 vs. Denver, expect the
running game to struggle. To what degree the running game will
struggle will depend on just how much HC Jim Zorn allows Jason
Campbell to open up the passing game in the contests that Portis
and Ladell Betts can't do it on their own.
The story for Campbell and his crew is much the same as it is
for the running game, but with a bit more of gloom-and-doom. Santana
Moss' play tends to wane in the second half and he isn't getting
any younger. The Redskins have yet to find an effective complement
to him, making things all the more difficult for Moss to pace
himself. Worse yet, Chris
Cooley managed just one TD on 83 catches in 2008. And just
as I mentioned above for the running game, the final six weeks
of the fantasy schedule will not give this team much of a break.
In that time, Washington will face Dallas twice and the Giants
and Eagles once. And it doesn't stop there, even in the inconspicuous
matchups vs. the Saints and Raiders; Moss will likely be facing
CB Nnamdi Asomugha one week and stud rookie CB Malcolm Jenkins
or maybe emerging second-year CB Tracy Porter in the other. In
short, don't expect Moss to guide your fantasy team to a title.
On the positive side, Devin
Thomas looks like he is ready to emerge from the pack and
be the big physical WR that every West Coast offense needs. One
also has to figure that Cooley will find himself in the end zone
a few more times this season since he scored at least six times
in each of his four previous seasons. Considering Cooley has led
the team in receptions in each of the last three seasons, he's
about as solid of a bet as there is for a player with an ADP of
7.11. It is with the likely emergence of Thomas and steady hands
of Cooley that I feel pretty confident about Campbell thriving
in his second year under Zorn, carrying on his success that he
enjoyed through the first half of last season and becoming a strong
QB2 in 2009.
NFC North
Chicago Bears |
|
Totals |
GB |
PIT |
SEA |
DET |
bye |
ATL |
CIN |
CLE |
ARI |
SF |
PHI |
MIN |
STL |
GB |
BAL |
MIN |
(Run) |
|
4 |
3.4 |
4.2 |
4.7 |
|
4.6 |
4 |
4.3 |
4.4 |
4 |
4 |
3.8 |
4.6 |
4 |
3.8 |
3.8 |
(Pass) |
|
6.8 |
5.6 |
7 |
7.9 |
|
7.1 |
6.3 |
7.2 |
6.7 |
7 |
6.4 |
6.6 |
7.6 |
6.8 |
6.2 |
6.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
J Cutler |
3390 |
225 |
150 |
170 |
250 |
|
255 |
215 |
295 |
265 |
280 |
155 |
245 |
245 |
220 |
215 |
205 |
TD |
22 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
INT |
15 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
Ru Yards |
145 |
5 |
5 |
15 |
10 |
|
15 |
5 |
0 |
10 |
15 |
15 |
0 |
5 |
15 |
20 |
10 |
Ru TD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
M Forte |
1190 |
75 |
55 |
80 |
105 |
|
85 |
75 |
60 |
80 |
90 |
120 |
65 |
85 |
70 |
60 |
85 |
Ru TD |
9 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
Re Yards |
345 |
25 |
5 |
20 |
15 |
|
40 |
30 |
20 |
55 |
15 |
5 |
20 |
35 |
20 |
15 |
25 |
Re TD |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
54 |
4 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
|
5 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
K Jones |
450 |
30 |
20 |
30 |
50 |
|
30 |
15 |
25 |
40 |
20 |
45 |
25 |
30 |
25 |
30 |
35 |
Ru TD |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
Re Yards |
80 |
5 |
10 |
0 |
5 |
|
0 |
5 |
5 |
0 |
15 |
25 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
5 |
0 |
Re TD |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
12 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D Hester |
850 |
45 |
25 |
35 |
80 |
|
75 |
45 |
100 |
75 |
50 |
45 |
70 |
60 |
45 |
70 |
30 |
Re TD |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
Rec |
65 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
|
6 |
3 |
6 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
E Bennett |
735 |
55 |
35 |
55 |
40 |
|
55 |
50 |
60 |
40 |
70 |
30 |
55 |
40 |
50 |
65 |
35 |
Re TD |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
Rec |
58 |
4 |
3 |
6 |
3 |
|
3 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R Davis |
285 |
15 |
10 |
0 |
30 |
|
15 |
25 |
25 |
40 |
20 |
0 |
20 |
15 |
25 |
15 |
30 |
Re TD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
27 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
4 |
|
2 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
G Olsen |
890 |
70 |
50 |
45 |
55 |
|
70 |
55 |
85 |
30 |
100 |
25 |
60 |
85 |
40 |
45 |
75 |
Re TD |
7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
Rec |
74 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
|
8 |
6 |
7 |
2 |
7 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
3 |
5 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D Clark |
205 |
10 |
15 |
15 |
25 |
|
0 |
5 |
0 |
25 |
10 |
25 |
20 |
10 |
35 |
0 |
10 |
Re TD |
3 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
21 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
|
While many people will keep tabs on the Kyle
Orton vs. Jay
Cutler battle week-by-week, I'm not sure I want either one
leading my fantasy team into the postseason. Since I covered Orton
last week, I'll just move on to Cutler, who has the distinct pleasure
of planning how to attack Packers DC Dom Capers' fire zones in
Week 14 at Soldier Field before heading off to Baltimore to try
to dissect the always-menacing Ravens defense. Last but not least,
the Bears will be forced to show up in Week 16 at home against
division rival Minnesota, which promises to be another chilly
affair. In the 13 weeks leading up to that stretch of games, Cutler
should enjoy a moderate amount of success as the schedule's only
speed bumps appear to be within the first three weeks of the season.
While I do believe that Arizona and Cincinnati may ultimately
prove to be difficult to throw against as well, I have identified
only three teams in the first 12 games of the season that stand
a good chance of holding Cutler down. The same goes for most of
the rest of the passing game. There is little doubt Devin
Hester could emerge as the first viable fantasy WR Chicago
has produced since Marty Booker, but I'm not going to give him
the benefit of doubt against the likes of Marcus Trufant, Asante
Samuel or the Steelers defense quite yet. The same can be said
for Earl Bennett. I will give some leeway to Greg
Olsen, however, who has enjoyed quite the offseason and is
rising quickly up fantasy cheat sheets. With Cutler under center
and the coaching staff looking for new ways to use their best
pass-catcher, Olsen may just push the likes of Antonio Gates,
Jason Witten and a host of others for the best at his position.
I can see the Steelers, Ravens and Seahawks (and maybe the Bengals)
keeping him somewhat in check, but there is no reason why Olsen
can't put up the numbers I have him projected for above. Grab
him about one round after the "big boys" at the TE position come
off the board and enjoy similar production.
Considering how consistently productive Matt Forte was as a rookie
and adding in the fact that Chicago seriously upgraded the offense,
it would seem foolish to suggest that he may not be able to improve
much - if at all - in Year 2. Before going any further, let me
emphasize that I did not say he would disappoint. Because the
Bears improved the passing game and because backup RB Kevin Jones
is another year removed from ACL surgery, I merely think Forte
will come close to matching last year's numbers, but he will be
more efficient in doing so. I don't foresee Jones stealing a lot
of work from Forte, but barring injury, there's a pretty good
chance the ex-Lion will get more than the 36 touches he saw a
season ago. As for the schedule, I have a long-standing policy
to avoid RBs that face Pittsburgh, Baltimore or Minnesota in the
fantasy playoffs. The problem with applying that policy to Forte
is that he has already shown he can produce against the Vikings
of the world (due to his receiving talents), so I may bend my
rule just a bit for him if he were to somehow slip to me at the
end of Round 1. Prior to the nightmarish end to the fantasy schedule,
Forte should have ample opportunity to post some healthy stat
lines in four games vs. the NFC West and a few more against the
likes of Cleveland and Detroit. If owners are willing to handle
a potentially low-scoring end to the season by one of their cornerstones,
then I will fully endorse Forte because he certainly has the kind
of schedule to lead his fantasy teams into the postseason.
Detroit Lions |
|
Totals |
NO |
MIN |
WAS |
CHI |
PIT |
GB |
bye |
STL |
SEA |
MIN |
CLE |
GB |
CIN |
BAL |
ARI |
SF |
(Run) |
|
4.1 |
3.8 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
3.4 |
4 |
|
4.6 |
4.2 |
3.8 |
4.3 |
4 |
4 |
3.8 |
4.4 |
4 |
(Pass) |
|
6.7 |
6.6 |
6 |
6.8 |
5.6 |
6.8 |
|
7.6 |
7 |
6.6 |
7.2 |
6.8 |
6.3 |
6.2 |
6.7 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D Culpepper |
1210 |
230 |
230 |
195 |
245 |
160 |
150 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TD |
6 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
INT |
5 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
M Stafford |
2070 |
|
|
|
|
30 |
130 |
|
230 |
195 |
200 |
245 |
210 |
220 |
180 |
175 |
255 |
TD |
11 |
|
|
|
|
0 |
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
INT |
11 |
|
|
|
|
0 |
2 |
|
1 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
K Smith |
1130 |
85 |
115 |
65 |
60 |
35 |
80 |
|
125 |
70 |
65 |
85 |
55 |
70 |
45 |
110 |
65 |
Ru TD |
7 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
Re Yards |
315 |
30 |
5 |
15 |
35 |
10 |
20 |
|
10 |
25 |
45 |
10 |
30 |
20 |
25 |
0 |
35 |
Re TD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
48 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
|
2 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
0 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
M Morris |
210 |
15 |
20 |
15 |
10 |
15 |
10 |
|
10 |
15 |
5 |
20 |
15 |
25 |
10 |
15 |
10 |
Ru TD |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Re Yards |
70 |
5 |
5 |
0 |
10 |
5 |
10 |
|
5 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
0 |
10 |
5 |
10 |
0 |
Re TD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
13 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C Johnson |
1415 |
80 |
125 |
100 |
95 |
70 |
110 |
|
130 |
45 |
85 |
115 |
90 |
110 |
65 |
80 |
115 |
Re TD |
11 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
|
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
Rec |
93 |
5 |
7 |
6 |
8 |
5 |
9 |
|
8 |
3 |
6 |
7 |
6 |
7 |
4 |
5 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
B Johnson |
535 |
30 |
25 |
30 |
15 |
40 |
55 |
|
35 |
50 |
30 |
40 |
25 |
35 |
40 |
50 |
35 |
Re TD |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
Rec |
41 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
|
2 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D Northcutt |
520 |
40 |
50 |
35 |
65 |
25 |
45 |
|
30 |
35 |
20 |
55 |
35 |
20 |
30 |
10 |
25 |
Re TD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
48 |
3 |
5 |
3 |
6 |
2 |
4 |
|
3 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
B Pettigrew |
395 |
45 |
20 |
15 |
25 |
10 |
40 |
|
20 |
40 |
20 |
20 |
30 |
25 |
15 |
25 |
45 |
Re TD |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
Rec |
39 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
|
2 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
|
When considering the passing game, only two names should be considered
for fantasy purposes in typical 12-team leagues: WR Calvin
Johnson and rookie TE Brandon
Pettigrew. Typically, the presence of two such able-bodied
targets would mean a QB should also be thrown into the mix, but
Daunte Culpepper
almost seems resigned to the fact that No. 1 overall pick Matthew
Stafford will take over at some point during the season -
maybe even Week 1 - and so should fantasy owners. Conversely,
the QB competition would also seem to suggest that Johnson is
not likely to replicate his numbers from a season ago, but don't
forget that "Megatron" played no more than five straight games
with the same QB last year. Whether the ball was coming from Culpepper,
Jon Kitna
or Dan Orlovsky,
Johnson still consistently produced for his owners when opponents
knew he was the only threat, especially after the Roy Williams
trade. While Detroit is still very much a work in progress, Pettigrew
is one of several factors working in CJ's favor in 2009. With
Pettigrew's ability to convert third downs, it is no longer a
given for the defense that the ball will be going in Johnson's
direction. Combine that with an OC in Scott Linehan who has emphasized
the importance of a strong power-running game wherever he has
ran an offense. With teams now needing to respect the run on every
down, Johnson will get his opportunities and it wouldn't be surprising
to me if he bested his totals from last year, even with the uncertainty
at QB, which just speaks to how much of a talent he is. It also
wouldn't be all that surprising if Megatron ascended into Randy
Moss territory in the next year or two because with his out-of-this-world
athletic ability and 6-5, 235-pound build; there just aren't too
many defensive players who can stop him, even with safety help.
A quick glance at the schedule reveals that while Culpepper, Stafford
and most of the receiving corps has only one matchup I like, CJ
has four. Furthermore, if owners can take a tough Week 14 contest
in Baltimore, Johnson should perform like the stud he is before
and after a difficult three-week stretch early in the season.
He is such a talent, in fact, that I am tempted to suggest that
of the four red matchups I have him down for, only Pittsburgh
may hold him down. A home game in Week 15 vs. Arizona followed
by a road contest in San Fran to close out the fantasy season
also means that cold weather should not factor into the play-calling.
As luck would have it, Detroit's running game should benefit
from an early game vs. Minnesota – when is the last time anyone
could say that? Obviously, I suggest this only because I expect
the "Williams Wall" to eventually lose their legal battle in the
StarCaps case and sit out the first four games. If the suspensions
are ultimately invoked, it would be a relief to the present and
future owners of Kevin
Smith, who will need to survive an early onslaught of formidable
run defenses (Redskins, Bears, Steelers) - and that's not including
the Saints and Packers, both of whom I expect to be much better
vs. the run than they were last season. Despite the rough early
going for Smith, Linehan has historically gotten a lot of production
out of his RBs and is not the type of play caller who will bail
on the run if it isn't working early. That philosophy should serve
Smith well after the bye, when the Lions face all the entire NFC
West and another questionable run defense in the Browns. In a
perfect world, Smith's price would be that of a RB3 but since
he is going in the late third round for the most part, owners
who count on him as a RB2 will probably need to wait to cash in
on his ability. Ideally, his owners can pair him up with another
runner later in the draft (Willie Parker perhaps?) whose schedule
is a bit lighter over the first six weeks of the season.
Green Bay Packers |
|
Totals |
CHI |
CIN |
STL |
MIN |
bye |
DET |
CLE |
MIN |
TB |
DAL |
SF |
DET |
BAL |
CHI |
PIT |
SEA |
(Run) |
|
3.8 |
4 |
4.6 |
3.8 |
|
4.7 |
4.3 |
3.8 |
4.2 |
4 |
4 |
4.7 |
3.8 |
3.8 |
3.4 |
4.2 |
(Pass) |
|
6.8 |
6.3 |
7.6 |
6.6 |
|
7.9 |
7.2 |
6.6 |
7.4 |
6.1 |
7 |
7.9 |
6.2 |
6.8 |
5.6 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
A Rodgers |
3610 |
250 |
235 |
280 |
195 |
|
265 |
260 |
225 |
275 |
285 |
220 |
300 |
175 |
180 |
240 |
225 |
TD |
23 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
0 |
|
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
INT |
13 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
|
0 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
Ru Yards |
135 |
0 |
10 |
10 |
5 |
|
15 |
5 |
5 |
15 |
25 |
10 |
10 |
5 |
0 |
5 |
15 |
Ru TD |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R Grant |
1220 |
90 |
80 |
70 |
105 |
|
105 |
60 |
85 |
110 |
70 |
60 |
90 |
65 |
85 |
45 |
100 |
Ru TD |
9 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
Re Yards |
135 |
5 |
10 |
0 |
10 |
|
5 |
15 |
5 |
0 |
10 |
15 |
25 |
15 |
0 |
15 |
5 |
Re TD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
24 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
|
1 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
B Jackson |
170 |
10 |
10 |
5 |
10 |
|
10 |
5 |
0 |
15 |
30 |
15 |
10 |
5 |
20 |
10 |
15 |
Ru TD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Re Yards |
250 |
15 |
10 |
20 |
15 |
|
30 |
10 |
15 |
20 |
25 |
10 |
10 |
0 |
25 |
25 |
20 |
Re TD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
39 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
|
4 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
0 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D Wynn |
230 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
5 |
|
25 |
10 |
20 |
0 |
0 |
15 |
25 |
35 |
15 |
10 |
25 |
Ru TD |
3 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Re Yards |
55 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
0 |
|
10 |
0 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
10 |
10 |
0 |
5 |
5 |
Re TD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
9 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
G Jennings |
1190 |
90 |
65 |
110 |
75 |
|
60 |
125 |
90 |
75 |
85 |
110 |
80 |
45 |
70 |
60 |
50 |
Re TD |
9 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
|
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
80 |
6 |
5 |
8 |
5 |
|
3 |
6 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
4 |
3 |
7 |
5 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D Driver |
865 |
55 |
60 |
75 |
40 |
|
50 |
35 |
65 |
45 |
70 |
55 |
105 |
55 |
40 |
40 |
75 |
Re TD |
4 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
Rec |
67 |
4 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
|
3 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
6 |
3 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
5 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
J Jones |
455 |
30 |
35 |
45 |
10 |
|
50 |
25 |
10 |
60 |
35 |
25 |
0 |
20 |
30 |
45 |
35 |
Re TD |
4 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
Rec |
29 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
|
3 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
J Nelson |
425 |
25 |
40 |
15 |
30 |
|
25 |
35 |
15 |
45 |
55 |
0 |
40 |
15 |
10 |
50 |
25 |
Re TD |
3 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
Rec |
31 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
|
2 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
J Finley |
235 |
30 |
15 |
10 |
15 |
|
35 |
15 |
20 |
30 |
5 |
0 |
30 |
15 |
5 |
0 |
10 |
Re TD |
3 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
26 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
|
Of the top 6-7 fantasy QBs, perhaps none of them have a more
difficult stretch to end the fantasy season than Aaron
Rodgers - which is sad when one considers that through the
first 12 weeks of the season, he has exactly one red matchup.
But even the most ardent Packer-backer would be hard-pressed to
convince me that Rodgers' fantasy stock will not take a hit during
Weeks 13-15 when Green Bay hosts Baltimore before hitting the
road to face Chicago and then Pittsburgh. In no way am I suggesting
that fantasy owners avoid Rodgers just because of this stretch,
but expecting him to match the numbers of Brees, Brady and Manning
in each of those weeks would be a tall order. Like most of the
top QBs, Rodgers has the weapons to overcome a difficult matchup
but, unlike most of his QB brethren, he also the legs to pick
up some fantasy points on the ground when no one is open. Much
like Rodgers, it's hard to endorse Greg
Jennings as a WR1 during that same three-week stretch, which
is a shame because the schedule suggests he should have a pretty
productive run after a Week 1 tilt vs. Chicago. Since the schedule
plays out the same for the rest of the receiving corps, allow
me to address the TE position, where it appears Green Bay is planning
on using Donald
Lee more as a blocker this season, thereby turning the receiving
chores over to Jermichael
Finley. I have him projected for a fairly tame 2009 (mostly
because of the four quality WRs listed above him), but there is
no denying his abilities as a receiver. When Rodgers and Jennings
are having trouble hooking up in Weeks 13-15, it wouldn't be all
that surprising to see him find Finley. As such, I fully endorse
a late-round selection (or early free agent pickup) of the second-year
TE.
As luck would have it, the positive and negative matchups line
up pretty much the same for the running game as they do the passing
game. Ryan Grant should catch a break by avoiding the "Williams
Wall" in Minnesota for what should be the last week of the
duo's suspension, but since the former Golden Domer has performed
well in his three games vs. the Vikings with them in the lineup,
maybe it really won't make all that much of a difference. Just
like the Packers' passing game, Weeks 13-15 represent a difficult
three-game run for Grant's owners. Depending on Chicago’s
health in its defensive front at that point (a major concern in
recent years), the Bears may not be able to hold Grant down all
that much, but history suggests Baltimore and Pittsburgh probably
will. Unfortunately, Grant's problems don't end there. The injury-prone
DeShawn Wynn's stock is supposedly at an all-time high in the
organization and a healthy Wynn is a definite threat to Grant's
workload. Add in Brandon Jackson - who figures to receive most
of the third-down work - and very quickly Grant goes from a clear-cut
#1 RB on his team to a potential headache for his owners. As such,
I would probably avoid Grant until the fourth round in 12-team,
PPR leagues and the end of the third round in non-PPR leagues.
If I did select him, I would make sure to invest a late pick to
secure Wynn.
Minnesota Vikings |
|
Totals |
CLE |
DET |
SF |
GB |
STL |
BAL |
PIT |
GB |
bye |
DET |
SEA |
CHI |
ARI |
CIN |
CAR |
CHI |
(Run) |
|
4.3 |
4.7 |
4 |
4 |
4.6 |
3.8 |
3.4 |
4 |
|
4.7 |
4.2 |
3.8 |
4.4 |
4 |
4.4 |
3.8 |
(Pass) |
|
7.2 |
7.9 |
7 |
6.8 |
7.6 |
6.2 |
5.6 |
6.8 |
|
7.9 |
7 |
6.8 |
6.7 |
6.3 |
6.3 |
6.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
S Rosenfels |
3080 |
235 |
250 |
190 |
200 |
225 |
170 |
100 |
230 |
|
220 |
175 |
225 |
225 |
210 |
195 |
230 |
TD |
18 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
|
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
INT |
13 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
Ru Yards |
100 |
10 |
10 |
5 |
5 |
15 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
|
10 |
10 |
10 |
0 |
10 |
5 |
5 |
Ru TD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
A Peterson |
1605 |
120 |
135 |
75 |
85 |
150 |
75 |
60 |
115 |
|
115 |
90 |
140 |
70 |
115 |
140 |
120 |
Ru TD |
15 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
Re Yards |
135 |
10 |
15 |
0 |
15 |
0 |
10 |
5 |
10 |
|
10 |
5 |
0 |
25 |
5 |
10 |
15 |
Re TD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
23 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C Taylor |
380 |
15 |
25 |
25 |
35 |
40 |
10 |
15 |
30 |
|
35 |
10 |
40 |
30 |
15 |
35 |
20 |
Ru TD |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
Re Yards |
160 |
15 |
20 |
15 |
0 |
10 |
5 |
10 |
10 |
|
15 |
0 |
15 |
5 |
10 |
20 |
10 |
Re TD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
29 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
|
2 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
P Harvin |
230 |
15 |
15 |
0 |
20 |
35 |
10 |
5 |
0 |
|
50 |
15 |
0 |
15 |
25 |
10 |
15 |
Ru TD |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Re Yards |
675 |
40 |
60 |
65 |
30 |
45 |
20 |
25 |
45 |
|
50 |
60 |
35 |
40 |
85 |
35 |
40 |
Re TD |
5 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
Rec |
49 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
4 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
6 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
B Berrian |
965 |
85 |
70 |
45 |
85 |
90 |
25 |
40 |
90 |
|
90 |
50 |
85 |
45 |
35 |
20 |
110 |
Re TD |
6 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
|
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
Rec |
59 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
5 |
6 |
|
5 |
4 |
6 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
S Rice |
575 |
35 |
45 |
30 |
35 |
40 |
65 |
20 |
40 |
|
15 |
60 |
35 |
55 |
40 |
35 |
25 |
Re TD |
3 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
45 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
|
1 |
5 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
B Wade |
145 |
15 |
0 |
10 |
0 |
15 |
35 |
0 |
0 |
|
10 |
0 |
15 |
0 |
15 |
30 |
0 |
Re TD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
15 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
V Shiancoe |
425 |
35 |
40 |
25 |
35 |
25 |
10 |
0 |
35 |
|
30 |
0 |
40 |
55 |
20 |
45 |
30 |
Re TD |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rec |
42 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
|
2 |
0 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
|
Vikings OC Darrell Bevell and Adrian
Peterson have both set their eyes on "All Day" possibly eclipsing
2,000 rushing yards this season. While he has the talent, line,
defense and play-calling to get it done, don't count on it happening.
In fact, I think he'll be hard-pressed to reach 1,760 like he
did in 2008. First off, Pittsburgh and Baltimore appear on the
schedule. Although that doesn't spell certain doom for his prospects
of reaching 2K, if Peterson averaged 75 yards/game vs. the Steelers
and Ravens, he would be required to average 143 yards rushing/game
over the remaining 14 games if he hopes to break that threshold.
Up to this point in his two years in the league, he has enjoyed
five such games. Throw in the typical workload for backup Chester
Taylor and throw in a few additional touches for rookie Percy
Harvin - who I think will be an extension of the running game,
much like Reggie
Bush is for the Saints - will get and, all of the sudden,
Peterson may need to settle for 1,500. Don't get me wrong, if
Minnesota wants AP to shorten his career just so he can make a
run for Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record, Peterson
may just hit 2,000. The problem is that he will need about 385
carries at his career YPC average of 5.2 to do it and it just
isn't worth it. What is easy to love, though, is just how great
of a start he could have against the likes of the Browns, Lions
and Rams in the first five weeks of the season. The next three
games will slow his pace, but after the Week 9 bye, four of the
next five contests are at home. He concludes the fantasy season
by facing a Panthers team without Kemoeatu in Week 15 and ends
it all against a team (Chicago) he has thoroughly dominated throughout
his career (averages of 138.5 rushing yards and two TDs in four
career meetings vs. the Bears).
The passing game wasn't going to have it easy with Brett
Favre and it's not going to be easier with Sage
Rosenfels or Tavaris Jackson. By all accounts, the first 11
weeks don't contain too many roadblocks (outside of Pittsburgh
and Baltimore), but a case could be made that each of the final
five teams on the Vikings' fantasy schedule are ones to avoid.
Two games vs. Chicago and once each against Cincinnati (experience
and injuries should no longer be a concern for Leon Hall and Johnathan
Joseph), Arizona (the back four is perhaps the Cardinals' strongest
unit) and Carolina (new DC Ron Meeks will probably install the
same Cover 2 principles he taught in Indy, which typically deflates
passing numbers). Not that anyone was counting on the tag team
of Rosenfels and Jackson to lead them to fantasy glory, but that
stretch of defenses (plus Minnesota's run-based offense) when
owners need points and wins is enough reason for me to not consider
either QB as even a bench player on my fantasy team. Bernard
Berrian showed us last year that he didn't need the best QB
in the world to produce (Gus Frerotte/Jackson) or even all that
many catches (48; Berrian finished 18th amongst WRs in traditional,
non-PPR scoring; the next-closest WR with that few of catches
was Marques Colston in 32nd place) to be a productive fantasy
player. Because I expect the passing game to be a bit more efficient
this season, I believe Berrian should be in line for a few more
catches this season. With that said, I could easily see Harvin
being the most enticing fantasy WR on the Vikings roster in 2009.
Few receivers in the league will have such a wide array of options
in their offensive systems designed just to get the ball in their
hands. HC Brad Childress told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune the
following back in early August: "He's not just a guy that has
to be thrown to, or has to be split wide...From the I-back, to
the split-back, to the single-back, to the wing, to the mid-spot,
to all the way out and everywhere in between, I think we can do
some of those things with Percy." Childress went so far as to
invoke Brian Westbrook's name during the quote (a former pupil
of his), so about the only things that figure to keep Harvin from
serious consideration from Rookie of the Year honors in 2009 are
injury, overload (as in too much being put on his plate) or off-field
issues. For those fantasy owners that don't mind rolling the dice
on the unknown in regards to filling their WR3 slot, something
tells me Harvin is going to have every bit of the season I have
projected him for here and probably even more. Harvin's presence
will probably also take away a lot of the value Visanthe
Shiancoe accrued last season. He may post similar catch and
yardage totals, but I can't imagine that he will find the end
zone seven times again.
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