Top 20 Offensive Rookies To Consider (11-20)
6/16/09
Part 2: 1-10
It's not the will to win, but the will to prepare to win that
makes the difference.
- Bear Bryant
It's little wonder why Bryant was such a legendary coach. Everyone
wants to win, but relatively speaking, very few people are willing
or able to sacrifice the time and resources to make sure winning
"happens". Far too many pro sports owners believe money
or simply wanting to win a championship should be enough to get
their teams into the Super Bowl. Being willing to spend and knowing
where to spend money are two completely different things in sports,
for it takes a great scouting and personnel department to recognize
the talent, the right coaches to mold it and enough of the right
leaders in the locker room to make sure each player is on the
same page with them.
Fortunately in fantasy football, we are only required to speculate
on the results of the aforementioned ingredients of football success.
But just because we are mere spectators doesn't give us the right
not to prepare ourselves for the upcoming season as well. It has
been said that if you don't vote, you have no right to complain.
Fantasy football isn't much different in the sense that if you
don't prepare over the summer and have a pretty good stance on
each “candidate” that you may draft, you have no right
to complain when your teams hang around mediocrity all season
long.
A good part of the preparation process every summer is trying
to figure out just how much impact rookies can have in fantasy
for the upcoming season. In most cases, running backs steal the
show when it comes to immediate contributions, although that notion
has been challenged in recent years by the rookie campaigns of
players such as Matt Ryan or Eddie Royal. However, any fantasy
owner need ask themselves only a few questions to get started
when it comes to rookie evaluation for fantasy purposes:
- Is He In A Position To Succeed?
For a RB, does he have a good line to run behind and an OC that
likes to run the ball? For a QB, does he have a good pass-blocking
line and 2-3 decent options in the passing game? For a WR or
TE, does he have a good QB throwing him the ball? Does he operate
opposite a star WR or is he being counted on to carry the passing
game?
- Is He A Starter Or Will He See The
Field At Least Half Of The Game?
- Does His "Style" Fit In
The Team's Offense? (Unfortunately, we can’t take
for granted that teams do this.) For example, does Chris Wells'
power game fit into Arizona's scheme? Does Knowshon Moreno have
the vision and quickness to thrive behind a zone-blocking line?
Does Darius Heyward-Bey's speed make him more of an impact player
in Oakland’s run-heavy offense than Michael Crabtree’s
hands and size do in another run-based offense in San Francisco?
Certainly, there are more questions that can be asked, but to
establish a baseline on a rookie, I think this gives us a pretty
good start. To that end, over the next two weeks, I hope to provide
each of you my initial thoughts on the incoming class before I
really buckle down on player evaluations next month with the release
of the first round of PSAs. To whet your appetite, I will focus
on the bottom half of the top 20 rookies this week before wrapping
it up with the players I feel are the best bets for fantasy success
in 2009, just over two months before the start of the season.
Note: The rankings below are for the 2009 season only and
are ranked in order of likelihood of fantasy impact. (For example,
QBs like Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez may accrue more fantasy
points given their position, but the chances of them impacting
a fantasy team are slimmer than say, a potential fantasy WR3 in
a three-WR league, because the WR could be an every-week starter.)
Rookies Who Just Missed The Cut:
Sammie Stroughter, WR Bucs; Mohamed Massaquoi, WR Browns; Chase
Coffman, TE Bengals (could easily skyrocket if he is fully healed
and in shape in time for training camp).
20. Austin
Collie, WR Colts
If the path was completely clear for Collie, it would be very
easy to place him among the top 5-10 fantasy rookies and attach
a line fairly similar to Anthony
Gonzalez's rookie year. Colts GM Bill Polian paid his the
BYU product a nice compliment last month by saying he reminded
the boss of former Colt Brandon Stokley, who seemingly began fantasy
owners' fascination with Colts' slot receivers with his precise
route running, good hands and above-average quickness. However,
the path to a regular appearance in the slot is not as clear as
it may appear at first glance. The oft-injured Roy
Hall - all 6-5 of him - gives the WR corps the kind of size
that the Colts just don't have otherwise. But the most likely
WR3 in Indy this season appears to be second-year WR Pierre
Garcon, who Polian has referred to as his choice for the player
most likely to "break out" on more than one occasion this offseason.
As if that were not enough, the Colts regularly line TE Dallas
Clark in the slot when they want to go three-wide. Indianapolis
also has no problem sticking Reggie
Wayne there as well when they want to ensure a free release
off the line of scrimmage for their top receiver. Furthermore,
Gonzalez is quite adept moving inside as well having spent each
of his first two years working mostly out of the slot. While an
injury to any of the aforementioned veterans could give Collie
a fair boost in playing time, there are enough reasons to let
Collie just sit on the waiver wire initially except in the deepest
of leagues.
Fearless Mid-June Prediction:
30 catches, 340 yards, 2 TDs
19. Darius
Heyward-Bey, WR Raiders
Most of us can agree that Michael Crabtree is a better WR prospect
than DHB, but what we need to know as fantasy owners is whether
the ex-Terp is a better fit in Oakland than one of the most prolific
receivers in college history. After all, would we prefer to see
Crabtree chasing down the overthrows of JaMarcus
Russell or DHB? Let's just suffice it to say that team owner
Al Davis has always been a proponent of the vertical game (why
try to string together a long drive when a team can score in 1-2
plays?), completion percentage and offensive consistency be damned.
Another factor Heyward-Bey has going for him is an immediate opening
in the starting lineup (unless he totally falls on his face);
Crabtree will have to quickly get in shape after he fully recovers
from his pre-draft foot surgery and fight off both Isaac Bruce
and Josh Morgan. The most interesting areas to keep an eye on
before and during the preseason regarding DHB will be whether
he: 1) disproves his doubters by showing off better hands than
his critics gave him credit for during the draft process and 2)
will not disappear for long stretches - another point of contention
that may be an unfair label given the unorthodox offensive attack
he played in at Maryland. As for his immediate pro prospects,
bear in mind that he will need to learn the nuances of the position
- including learning how to get off press coverage - and that
the leading WR from the Raiders a season ago had 22 catches! For
a team that will probably try to run the ball at least 55% of
the time, it doesn't look all that exciting from a fantasy owner's
prospective. This, of course, will cue all the DHB doubters to
slam the Raiders for another first-round reach, but that doesn't
mean he won't eventually come close to living up to his draft
position. Unlike the Anquan Boldins and Eddie Royals of the league,
Heyward-Bey has a sharp learning curve ahead of him and will likely
need a full 3-4 years before we can rightfully judge his place
among this year's crop of receivers.
Fearless Mid-June Prediction: 27 catches, 400 yards, 3 TDs
18. Travis
Beckum, TE Giants
Perhaps the most surprising rookie to be included on this list.
But if Beckum can avoid further injury (and fully recover from
the broken leg he suffered last season), he could possibly be
the Giants' answer to the Colts' - and his brother's TE - Dallas
Clark. Much like Beckum, Clark wasn't much of a blocker out of
Iowa in 2003 but both were quite proficient at catching the ball
in the college game. For anyone who hasn’t seen Beckum when
he is healthy, he is a super-athletic “rocked-up”
WR who can’t block a lick but is amazing in the passing
game. As a result, the Giants are wisely planning at using Beckum
only as an H-back, at least until they figure out just how much
of a liability he is as a blocker. Where I really like his fantasy
value is in the red zone, where I believe either he or fellow
rookie Ramses Barten will be on the receiving end on a handful
of scores as both will have a significant size (Barten) or athletic
advantage (Beckum) over most of the defenders that will be covering
them. I like the former Wisconsin Badger just a bit more as he
figures to see the field on a more regular basis and will not
struggle initially to create the separation from linebackers and
safeties that I fear Barten will from cornerbacks. Figure that
Beckum will steal roughly two-thirds of starting TE Kevin Boss'
33 receptions from last season while adding a few of his own and
allow Boss to do what he does best, which is sealing the edge
with his blocking prowess in the run and pass game.
Fearless Mid-June Prediction: 32 catches, 300 yards, 3 TDs
17. Pat
White, QB Dolphins
In my humble opinion, I see White as a more accurate passer than
Michael Vick who is a bit lighter and about a tenth of a second
slower than the QB I would compare him with. I find it amazing
that in eight years, a player of comparable talent to Vick would
go from no-brainer No. 1 overall pick to mid-second round, especially
in the now-Wildcat-obsessed world of the NFL. Don't get me wrong,
I never had Vick pegged as the best fit in pro football (much
less a West Coast offense), but few could argue he was as exciting
of a player as there has been in the NFL in some time. And that
is exactly what I expect White to be. With that said, I also believe
that unless Miami is somehow able to operate out of the Wildcat
successfully at least 40% of its snaps - a highly unlikely proposition
- White will be someone who defensive coordinators will have to
worry about much more than fantasy owners. While he is far from
a polished passer, the former West Virginia standout has a higher
ceiling in that area than Vick ever did, so there is potential
for him to be on the fantasy radar down the road although he will
be hard-pressed to ever match fellow backup Chad
Henne as a traditional pro-style QB. Interestingly enough,
White could still be useful as a desperation bye-week play this
season against some of the weaker run defenses on the Dolphins'
schedule, against whom he may be able to break off a 20-yard scoring
run after a play breaks down. With that said, he will only qualify
as a QB in fantasy leagues, so his fantasy value will be limited
because of his position he plays even though he stands a good
chance to register a higher fantasy point total than a few of
the players who are ranked higher than him.
Fearless Mid-June Prediction: 20-35, 300 yards, 3 TDs; 60 rushes,
325 yards, 2 TDs
16. Hakeem
Nicks, WR Giants
Hakeem Nicks: Will see the field in three-and-four
WR sets.
Based solely on his Meineke Car Care Bowl-game performance, I
can at least entertain all the praise that was heaped upon Nicks
for his stellar 2008 campaign, including his college coach's (Butch
Davis) comparison to Michael Irvin. That game highlighted all
of his best qualities, including a highlight catch or two and
the ability to carry a passing game by himself on occasion with
his run-after-catch abilities. But even though Nicks doesn't enter
camp against "name" competition, the Giants don't lack for options
at WR. Expect second-year veteran Mario
Manningham to take the next step as a regular contributor,
but Nicks' biggest hurdle to instant fantasy stardom figures to
be Domenik
Hixon, who figures to start the season out as the Giants’
split end. Given Hixon’s rapport with Eli
Manning, New York will not need to rush the rookie into the
lineup until he clearly emerges as the better option – something
that may not happen until 2010. Nicks’ ceiling is pretty high,
though, so he will see the field a lot in three-and-four-wide
sets. I could easily see Nicks stringing together one or two strong
performances together this season that will drive fantasy owners
crazy for his services on the waiver wire, but until he is named
the starter, I don't think the Giants' run-based offense can support
the fantasy values of three receivers. As much as I like him,
I will probably opt to let him find a home on someone else’s roster
or on the waiver wire.
Fearless Mid-June Prediction: 33 catches, 410 yards, 3 TDs
15. Deon
Butler, WR Seahawks
Last week, I made a brief mention of Butler being one of the
few members of the Seahawks' offense this season that won't be
recovering from some kind of major injury. This week, I am going
to suggest he may be able to crack the starting lineup if his
competition is not at the top of their game. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
appears locked in at flanker and is the only guaranteed starter
at WR. But at split end, Nate Burleson, Deion Branch and Butler
appear to be engaged in a competition to start opposite their
prized free agent signing. The most likely scenario has Branch
securing the job with Butler appearing in three-wide packages
and Burleson focusing mainly on returns so long as he can regain
his explosion following reconstructive knee surgery. But Branch
isn’t likely to be the same receiver we have come to know
him as after two surgeries on his left knee over a 13-month period
and Burleson can’t be counted upon either given the severity
of his injury. Thus, Butler could win by default because he has
the speed and explosion that none of the 'Hawks other wideouts
have. Furthermore, his coaches have raved about his hands, route
running and intelligence to the point where some are suggesting
Branch may be on the block. We'll see if this praise carries over
into training camp, but Butler will see the field regardless because
he does possess big-play ability. For the time being, though,
there is little reason to draft him until he officially claims
the starting job, and even then, he will be the No. 3 option in
the passing game behind Houshmandzadeh and TE John Carlson on
a team that will try to focus on the running game.
Fearless Mid-June Prediction: 32 catches, 465 yards, 2 TDs
14. Jeremy
Maclin, WR Eagles
Jeremy Maclin: A volatile stock on the
fantasy market.
Depending on your stance of Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg’s
play-calling, the Eagles are either diversifying the way they
are attacking offenses or just looking for another reason to air
it out even more by bringing Maclin aboard. The easy assumption
is that Philly will stick him in the slot and use him on a few
reverses, maybe even lining him up in the backfield on occasion.
But with DeSean
Jackson entrenched as the flanker and the team very high on
Jason Avant
in the slot, I'm not sure the Eagles themselves know what they
want to do with him at this point. At their first organized team
activity, they lined him up at split end, where Kevin
Curtis usually resides. At the next OTA, they rotated him
at all three spots. Since it wouldn't make much sense to showcase
his running and receiving versatility in the preseason, we really
may not know what Maclin will mean to the Eagles’ offense until
after the start of the season. As such, his stock on the fantasy
market will be highly volatile. I suspect when Maclin’s fantasy
owners look back at the 2009 season, they will come away slightly
disappointed if each of the aforementioned WRs stay healthy. But
it also would not be all that surprising to see the rookie make
himself irreplaceable if any one of the three veterans were to
get hurt because, like Jackson, he already has the quickness and
ability to separate in his repertoire. And there within lies the
rub: Maclin is quite possibly the biggest wildcard in this draft
class for fantasy owners. Is he going to step in for an injured
Jackson in Week 2 and replicate his production or will all the
WRs stay healthy, leading to a Hank
Baskett-like role? With all that in mind, I see Maclin as
a gadget-play type of wideout in 2009 who will return kicks until
one of the vets goes down.
Fearless Mid-June Prediction: 36 catches, 440 yards, 3 TDs; 2
Return TDs
12b. Kenny
Britt, WR Titans
As with any rookie, training camp is going to have a large say
in how productive Britt will be immediately. However, it really
is only a matter of time before Britt turns free agent acquisition
Nate Washington
back into a part-time deep threat and Justin
Gage into a complementary receiver, thus becoming QB Kerry
Collins' go-to guy. The unfortunate thing for Britt fans is
that I would count on that passing of the torch coming in 2010,
not 2009. The ex-Scarlet Knight is unlike anyone the Titans have
drafted in some time (maybe a pre-injury Tyrone Calico is the
closest Titans comparison?), so it would come as little surprise
if Britt started out in Washington's role with the Steelers before
overtaking him in the lineup sometime around midseason. Although
Gage has shown flashes when given the chance, he is prone to injury.
And I get the feeling the Titans are just itching to get Britt
going because the last time the Titans had a consistent, go-to
WR threat was Derrick Mason, who left for the Ravens following
the 2004 season. But just like with Crabtree, keep expectations
for the Titans' rookie fairly low even though Kerry Collins will
be quarterbacking this club for the foreseeable future. Why? Tennessee
will be a power running team for as long as HC Jeff Fisher is
in charge and OC Mike Heimerdinger is calling the shots. The Titans
are not concerned with lighting up the scoreboard and trust their
defense implicitly, so asking this offense to provide more than
one usable fantasy WR - which figures to be Gage once again -
is probably asking too much. Keeper and dynasty league owners
will want to keep tabs on Britt, who certainly should settle into
fantasy lineups regularly starting sometime in 2010. But for the
upcoming season, expect the typical inconsistency one typically
expects with a rookie WR in a run-based offense.
Fearless Mid-June Prediction: 42 catches, 660 yards, 3 TDs
12a. Michael
Crabtree, WR 49ers
There doesn't seem to be much argument that Crabtree will be
a standout WR at some point in his career. After all, with his
Andre Johnson-like build and incredible college production, it
appears a foregone conclusion their bay-area rivals missed a chance
to end their struggles at the position by opting for a size-speed
specimen with limited polish like Darius Heyward-Bey. What is
up for some debate is whether Crabtree's numbers are going to
look all that much different than Heyward-Bey's at the end of
this season despite the former Red Raider's polish. The reasons
for this startling revelation are several: while Shaun
Hill is probably a better QB at this point than JaMarcus Russell,
both offenses are going to lean heavily on the run and feature
TEs who could easily lead their team in receptions. In San Francisco's
case, Crabtree will also have to fight Isaac Bruce and Josh Morgan
for Hill's attention (and that's assuming another WR, the talented
Jason Hill,
doesn't have a breakout camp). Certainly, Crabtree figures to
eventually emerge from the pack, but will it be in time for fantasy
owners in 2009? I tend to believe the Niners' top pick should
be a late-round selection at best in fantasy drafts this summer
and will be frustrating to own for most of his rookie season (although
he is a no-brainer pick in keeper and dynasty leagues). But by
the end of the season, he should start showing why he will be
a highly coveted fantasy property for 2010.
Fearless Mid-June Prediction: 45 catches, 600 yards, 4 TDs
11. Brandon
Pettigrew, TE Lions
Unlike most rookie TEs that have come out in recent years, Pettigrew
is not a specialist, which will not only endear him to his coaches,
but keep him on the field all game long. While that fact alone
won't necessarily make him a starting TE in fantasy leagues, he
will certainly be worth drafting in the later rounds. New OC Scott
Linehan has shown he is willing to include the TE in the offense
as has QB Daunte
Culpepper (remember Jermaine Wiggins?) and 2009 overall No.
1 pick Matthew
Stafford (Martrez Milner, the one decent TE he had in his
Bulldog career, tied for the team lead with 30 catches in Stafford's
freshman season at Georgia). For every bit of credit Pettigrew
gets for being an above-average blocker, he is at least that good
in the short-to-intermediate passing game. As such, Pettigrew
should enter the season as the third-best option in the Lions'
passing game behind WRs Calvin and Bryant
Johnson, with the possibility of moving in front of the latter
before the season is over. Detroit will be better on offense this
season than most people think, which leads me to project fairly
healthy numbers for Pettigrew.
Fearless Mid-June Prediction: 44 catches, 475 yards, 4 TDs
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