Divisional Playoffs
1/15/10
Whether you are still basking in the success you enjoyed in cruising
to your fantasy league's title, still smarting over your teams'
inability to close the deal in your fantasy postseason or just aren't
ready to hang up your owner's hat quite yet, playoff fantasy football
may be just the thing you need to end this season right.
I'll be the first to admit that playoff fantasy football doesn't
appeal to me quite as much as the usual 16-week animal, but that
doesn't mean I don't still enjoy it. And coming off my most profitable
fantasy season yet, I'm looking to make a great season even better.
For better or for worse, I want to share my experience with you
(no matter which category mentioned in the first paragraph you
may fall under) in hopes that some of you can end this season
on a definite high note.
For the first time in my “fantasy career", I'll be
taking part in multiple playoff leagues this year. I will compete
in one free league with CBS Sportsline and two money leagues with
Fuzzy's Fantasy Football. My goal over the next four weeks will
be to help each of you through your decision-making process as
you attempt to boost your bottom line.
Sportsline
Scoring
Offensive Statistics
All TDs = 6 points
Passing Yards - 1 point for every 25 yards
Rushing/Receiving Yards - 1 point for every 10 yards
Two-point conversion = 2 points
Interception - 2 points
Fumble Lost - 2 points
Field Goals 0-49 yards = 3 points; 50+ yards = 5 points
Extra Point = 1 point
Defensive/Special Teams Statistics
Touchdown = 6 points;
Safety = 2 points
Interception = 2 point
Fumble Recovery = 2 points
Sack = 1 point
Points Allowed
0-6 = 8 points
7-13 = 6 points
14-20 = 4 points
21-27 = 2 points
28+ = 0 points
Yards Allowed
0-49 = 12 points
50-99 = 10 points
100-149 = 8 points
150-199 = 6 points
200-249 = 4 points
250-299 = 2 points
300+ = 0 points
The Rules
Choose a starting lineup of eight NFL players. You will have
300 units (or salary cap dollars) to "spend" assembling
your team. You will be able to change your lineup, without penalty,
until the lineup setting deadline for the Wild Card Playoff Round.
Once your lineup locks for the Wild Card Playoff Round, you will
have eight lineup moves to make for the remainder of the postseason.
You may use as many of the moves allotted in any round as you
would like, however, you will not be able to exceed the eight
moves allotted for the remainder of the postseason. In case
there was any doubt, the number listed by each player is their
“cap number”.
What this means for you: Pick
as many winners (team, not individual) as you can for your lineup
this week. For the most part, it's not good strategy to use any
more than three players from any one team simply because an upset
or two can severely hamper your ability to make roster moves later.
Of course, you are also trying to score the most points each week,
so there is a delicate balance between the present and the future.
Generally speaking, if you can get at least four players on your
Wild Card week roster that you would be willing to keep on your
roster all the way through to the Super Bowl, you'll probably
be in good shape. Ideally, I'll need about three roster moves
next week, two for the AFC and NFC Championship Games and the
last three for the Super Bowl. But at least for this week, the
goal is to get the highest-scoring lineup out there that the cap
will allow and contemplate the future when this week's games are
decided.
Position Requirements: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K,
1 Defense/Special Teams
Wild Card Weekend Results - 136
points
Quarterbacks
Drew Brees, vs ARI 86
Peyton Manning, vs BAL 82
Philip Rivers, vs NYJ 75
Brett Favre, vs DAL 74
Tony Romo, @ MIN 72
Kurt Warner, @ NO 63
Joe Flacco, @ IND 58
Mark Sanchez, @BAL 36
First Cuts: Brees, Manning, Rivers, Favre, Romo, Flacco, Sanchez
The Final Choices: N/A
Warner: Ride the hot hand.
The Call: Warner. In the first of several responses that may
sound like a broken record, roster moves are limited and this
is no time to be making moves just to make moves. Then again,
why would I opt for another QB when the one I chose last week
threw for over 300 yards and five TDs (and is the cheapest option
of the legit starters)? Furthermore, he'll get to play under a
roof once again against a Saints defense that has slid considerably
over the second half of the season. The key to getting to any
QB - young or old - is getting quick pressure, preferably up the
middle. With DT Sedrick Ellis probably still operating at less
than 100% and DE Charles Grant out for the rest of the season,
that pressure isn't likely to happen without blitzing. While the
Saints don't mind doing that, CB Jabari Greer will likely still
be rusty from his long injury layoff. The point to be made here
is that Warner & Co. should be poised for another strong offensive
game, although the running game is sure to be more prevalent against
a New Orleans' defense that struggled to stop the run down the
stretch. This won't be a repeat of the historic Wild Card Week
shootout, but a 38-24 or 38-31 game wouldn't come as a total shock.
No matter what, Warner is going to post a line comparable with
any of the other QBs he is listed with above.
Running Backs
Adrian Peterson,
vs DAL 63
Ray Rice, @IND 56
Thomas Jones, @SD 50
Joseph Addai, vs BAL 47
Pierre Thomas, vs ARI 37
Marion Barber, @ MIN 34
LaDainian Tomlinson, vs NYJ 36
Beanie
Wells, @NO 33
Darren Sproles, vs NYJ 29
Tim Hightower, @NO 28
Reggie Bush, vs ARI 27
Willis McGahee, RB BAL @NE 26
Chester Taylor, vs DAL 19
Felix Jones, @MIN 19
Tashard Choice, @MIN 16
Donald Brown, vs BAL 15
Shonn Greene, @SD 13
First Cuts: Peterson, Barber, Tomlinson, Sproles, Hightower,
Bush, McGahee, Taylor, Choice, Brown
The Final Choices: (RB1) Rice, T. Jones, Addai, Thomas (RB2) Wells,
F. Jones, Greene
The RB2 Call: Felix Jones.
This may seem like a classic case of chasing last week's numbers,
but Dallas has made getting Felix more touches a priority for
the last few weeks. Including the Cowboys' upset win at New Orleans
in Week 15, Jones has touched the ball between 14-18 times in
each contest. With his big-play ability and that many touches,
he is liable to explode for at least one big play a game (or more,
as evidenced by the team's blowout win during Wild Card Week vs.
the Eagles). In all honesty, I would have preferred to leave Wells
here this week against what has become a soft Saints' run defense,
but I wanted to upgrade/replace my RB1 and TE from last week (Thomas
Jones, Jermichael Finley) and it wasn't going to work under the
cap if I left him in that spot. Of course, since Arizona refuses
to keep Wells in the lineup in the high-leverage situations most
of the time, it's quite likely I'll be getting similar production
from Jones at a more reasonable rate. As for Greene, he is evolving
into the back I thought he was going to be at the beginning of
the season, however, I don't foresee him having near the game
vs. the Chargers as he did against an injury-plagued Bengals'
defense last week. Plus, since I expect San Diego to win, I would
be wasting one of my valuable roster moves on a backup RB (committee
RB at best) for one week.
The affordable Jospeh Addai.
The RB1 Call: Addai. Addai's
season - up to this point - has been a bit mind-boggling. He didn't
have a single 100-yard rushing performance (only topped 100 total
yards twice) and was held to 3.8 YPC. Yet, he finished No. 9 overall
among fantasy RBs in non-PPR despite sitting out the final five-plus
quarters of the season - finishing only five points ahead of Jamaal
Charles and four points ahead of Jonathan Stewart - in large part
due to 13 total TDs. But all this does is show you what a good,
consistent workload can do for a RB in a highly proficient offense
- Addai received 16 or more touches in all but two of the Colts'
first 14 games. In the end, Addai gets the nod over Rice and Peterson
because of his affordability, but truth be told, what assurance
do we have Peterson is going to see a heavy workload vs. Dallas?
Rice should, but is he going to lose out on short scores to McGahee
or Le'Ron McClain? Thomas was my favorite for this spot before
the start of the playoffs, but his three broken ribs have me a
bit concerned for his long-term playoff success. I like Thomas
for one-week play (see below), but I have a better feeling that
Indy will be playing next week than I do New Orleans.
Wide Receivers
Miles Austin, @MIN 45
Larry Fitzgerald, @NO 43
Reggie Wayne, vs BAL 43
Vincent Jackson, vs NYJ 41
Marques Colston, vs ARI 37
Sidney Rice, vs DAL 37
Derrick Mason, @IND 34
Robert Meachem, vs ARI 32
Anquan Boldin, @NO 30
Percy Harvin, vs DAL 29
Austin Collie, vs BAL 26
Pierre Garcon, vs BAL 24
Roy Williams,
@ MIN 24
Jerricho Cotchery,@SD 23
Braylon Edwards, @SD 21
Steve Breaston, @NO 21
Devery Henderson, vs ARI 22
Bernard Berrian, vs DAL 19
Patrick Crayton, @NO 18
Malcom Floyd, vs NYJ 16
Mark Clayton, @SD 14
First Cuts: Colston, Mason, Meachem, Boldin, Harvin, Collie,
Garcon, Williams, Cotchery, Edwards, Henderson, Berrian, Crayton,
Clayton
The Final Choices: Austin, Fitzgerald, Wayne, Jackson, Rice, Breaston
The WR2 Call: Austin. The former
undrafted receiver from Monmouth has already moved into the upper
class of receivers after a breakout season. However, for a receiver
to go from non-starter to Larry Fitzgerald territory is insane.
Judging by his production from Week 12 on, he's actually been
more consistent. He's scored in all but two of the seven games
and has posted at least six catches and 71 yards each and every
week. Beyond that consistency, it's hard not to like the matchup
this week for Austin. Usually I would never say that about any
WR about to face Antoine Winfield in primary coverage, but the
Vikes' top CB is not healthy. Perhaps the bye week will help more
than we know, but since returning vs. the Bengals in Week 14,
Winfield has contributed to the opponent's WR1 stat line which
has totaled 26 catches, 364 yards and two scores. Austin is playing
at a higher level than either Steve Smith or Devin Aromashodu
(the three WRs he faced in Weeks 15-17), so another huge game
is quite likely against a reeling Vikings defense. Jackson is
actually a consideration for this spot despite his matchup because
Philip Rivers has proven time and again that he will throw the
ball Jackson’s way regardless of coverage. But, for all
the reasons I just stated above, the easier route to a fantasy
explosion this week will come by using Austin.
The WR1 Call: Fitzgerald. Both
of my WRs from last week make the cut again this week. And why
not? It's not as if either receiver's matchup is going to get
tougher than it was last week. In Fitzgerald's case, he'll face
some combination of the rusty but underrated Jabari Greer, Randall
Gay and Tracy Porter one week after drawing Green Bay's Charles
Woodson for most of the game. But honestly, I'm not sure anyone
- including Darrelle Revis (although I'm glad I don't have to
make that decision anytime soon) - could steer me away from using
Fitzgerald for as long as Arizona is in the postseason. It's actually
a bit frightening how consistent his numbers stay game after game,
year after year. The fact that he gets a slight break in terms
of his one-on-one matchup this week should just make his owners
that much more comfortable with him again this week. I imagine
a 7-120-1 line is a fairly good bet for him this week, with or
without Anquan Boldin in the lineup.
Tight Ends
Dallas Clark, vs BAL 40
Antonio Gates, vs NYJ 37
Visanthe Shiancoe, vs DAL 25
Jason Witten, @MIN 24
Todd Heap, @IND 22
Jeremy Shockey, vs ARI 18
Dustin Keller, @SD 15
David Thomas, vs ARI 10
First Cuts: Shiancoe, Witten, Heap, Keller, Shockey, Thomas
The Final Choices: Clark, Gates
The Call: Gates. This one boils down to two of the game's best
TEs, if not the two best. This is a close call but I'll opt for
Gates because his cap number is a bit more palatable. Since I
believe the Chargers are the AFC's best team, I may also be saving
myself a roster move down the line if I am correct in that assessment.
Now, I'm not typically in the business of rolling the dice against
the league's top defense, but Darrelle Revis can only guard one
player (and that player will be Vincent Jackson). Because of Jackson's
supporting cast, New York won't have the luxury of doubling Gates,
which is about the only way I expect Jets' safeties Kerry Rhodes
or Jim Leonhard to hold up in coverage against him. Dallas Clark
needed only a little about a half to post a 4-57 line vs. the
same Jets secondary in Week 16, so I expect Gates to have similar
success. Meanwhile, the last time Clark faced the Ravens in Week
11, he managed a single catch - a three-yard score. Baltimore
isn't going to repeat that kind of shutdown performance, but I
expect a less-than-average day from Clark.
Kickers
Nate Kaeding, vs NYJ 34
Ryan Longwell, vs DAL 29
Jay Feely, @SD 26
Neil Rackers, @NO 20
Shaun Suisham, @MIN 19
Billy Cundiff, @IND 18
Matt Stover, vs BAL 14
Adam Vinatieri, vs BAL 9
Garrett Hartley, vs ARI 8
First Cuts: Kaeding, Longwell, Feely, Rackers, Cundiff, Stover,
Vinatieri
The Final Choices: Hartley, Suisham
The Call: Suisham. Once again, I'm in the business of saving roster
moves. However, much like the other players I'm sticking with
again this week, I don't see the need to make a change anyway.
The Cowboys' offense is rolling, the Vikings' defense isn’t
as good as it was at the beginning of the season and Suisham is
hitting his attempts. So, with a manageable cap number, it's hard
for me to make a change here to someone like Hartley, who may
be playing for a one-and-out team.
Defenses
Saints
vs ARI 40
Cardinals
@NO 28
Ravens
@IND 27
Chargers
vs NYJ 27
Jets @SD
26
Vikings
vs DAL 26
Colts
vs BAL 24
Cowboys
@MIN 23
First Cuts: Saints, Cards, Ravens, Vikings
The Final Choices: Chargers, Jets, Colts, Cowboys
The Call: Cowboys. Second verse, same as the first. There is simply
no need to waste a roster move when I already have the defense
that is playing the best of any team remaining in the postseason
and is a cheapest alternative available. It'd be nice if the Dallas
defense would find a way to notch a return TD or two, but I'll
settle for 14-17 points allowed, a couple turnovers and 3-4 sacks
in the meantime.
Fuzzy's Playoff Leagues
(Two leagues)
Wild Card Weekend Results - 174
points (both leagues)
Fuzzy's playoff format is much more streamlined than Sportsline's.
Fuzzy's uses traditional PPR scoring (all TDs worth six points)
with no salary cap, no limit on roster moves between rounds and
no yards allowed bonuses for the defenses. In short, your goal
is to pick the highest-scoring lineup each week with no strings
attached. The main difference outside of the ones I've already
mentioned is that Fuzzy's leagues contain no more than 50 teams
whereas Sportsline employs a one-man-against-the-world approach.
As a result, 20% of the entrants into Fuzzy's playoff leagues
will - at the very least - recoup their entry fee, with first
through ninth place receiving a nice bonus for their troubles.
Position Requirements: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K,
1 Defense/Special Teams
(Because the players/matchups are same as they are above, I'll
skip the step of mentioning each player again and get right to
my choices.)
QB: Brees and Warner. Unlike last
week, I will "diversify my portfolio" this week. In
other words, my lineup will not look the same in both leagues.
Much like last week, however, I will employ the same strategy
when it comes to the tiebreaker element, which was using the QB
from the ARI-NO matchup that I don't start as my tiebreaker. (Of
the top 5-10 teams in each league - of which I am proudly a part
of - I was surprised how few owners didn't use a QB from the Packers-Cards
game last week as their tiebreaker option, but I digress.) As
for as why I'm going with these two QBs, it should be fairly obvious,
but I'll go into a bit of detail anyway. Quite simply, I like
Rivers, but expecting huge numbers against the league's top defense
that allowed eight passing TDs all season long is no way to go.
Favre is a poor bet against a Cowboys' defense that has shut down
an explosive Eagles' offense two weeks in a row. Romo is a fair
play, but the Dallas offense is balanced enough that his numbers
won't be off the charts. Flacco and Sanchez don't even merit consideration.
As for why I'm going with Brees and Warner, both QBs play for
offenses that don't mind ditching the running game and, in a game
that should see around 65-70 total points, that is probably going
to happen at some point.
RB: Rice and Peterson/Thomas. In
PPR scoring, Rice is an obvious pick for both of my teams. If
his team is leading, it likely means he is tearing it up on the
ground. If his team is trailing, he and Derrick Mason are easily
the top targets in the passing game. With 27 touches and 20.5
fantasy points scored in the Ravens' first meeting vs. the Colts
in Week 11, I feel confident that Rice will once again live up
to my expectations.
The other RB slot is a bit trickier. In large part because he
doubled his previous career highs in receptions and receiving
yards, AP scored double-digit fantasy points in all 16 games this
season (which allowed him to actually be more consistent than
Rice in that regard since Rice scored less than 10 fantasy points
in the MNF game vs. Green Bay back in Week 13). But while Indy
is no pushover on defense, Rice's matchup is a bit easier than
Peterson's, which is why I feel better about Rice than Peterson
this week. In other words, I'm willing to bet on Peterson, but
no so enamored by him that I want to bet on him with both of my
teams. On the other hand, there has been an awful lot of speculation
that Thomas' limited use throughout the season was due largely
to save him for the postseason for use as the Saints' feature
back and I'd be foolish in not taking a shot with him against
a Cardinals' defense that has to be lacking confidence. Mike Bell
will be a threat to steal short yardage carries for as long as
he is on the Saints’ roster, but he was abysmal down the
stretch and Reggie Bush isn't a great candidate for anything more
than 8-10 touches. Even more in Thomas’ favor, New Orleans
would be wise to use the run throughout the game to slow down
the pace both teams will be tempted to set, if for no other reason
than to eat clock. And much like Felix Jones, Thomas is liable
to explode for a big play at any time, so I feel confident that
PT will reward my faith as long as he sees at least 15 touches.
WR: Austin, Fitzgerald and Wayne/Rice.
As if you haven't noticed by now, I feel Austin and Fitzgerald
are almost automatic plays at this point. Therefore, let's move
on to my WR3, where I get to plug Reggie Wayne in as my last WR
in one league and Sidney Rice in another. Understand that Rice
doesn't quite belong in Wayne's class yet as a fantasy WR, but
realize that unlike Rice, Wayne has another 100-catch play to
compete for catches with on his own team in Dallas Clark. With
that said, Rice has shown the tendency to get bottled up by some
of the game's best CBs despite breaking out in a big way this
year. Certainly, CB Terence Newman qualifies as an upper-echelon
corner. So, I feel compelled to make sure I don't count too heavily
on Rice despite the fact he is Brett Favre's favorite target by
a long shot.
In some ways, I've already stated the case as to why I don't
feel comfortable going all in on Wayne. I'm more fearful of Clark
or perhaps Pierre Garcon being featured this weekend than I am
of the Ravens' defense. Over the last five weeks of the season,
Wayne only had one game worth getting excited about in fantasy
(and that was against a sad Jags’ secondary), although Weeks
16-17 weren't exactly his fault. Unlike Rice, Wayne won't have
to square off against a top-notch CB and he does have a seven-catch,
89-yard game to his credit against Baltimore earlier this season.
I can't imagine Wayne outperforming either Austin or Fitzgerald
this week, but another 15-point fantasy week from him isn't asking
the world.
Gates: A physical mismatch.
TE: Gates/Clark. After looking
at the other options available, it's not hard to understand why
I would opt for two of the top three top PPR TEs in fantasy this
season. Coming off a career-best 1,157-yard season, I would expect
another huge game out of Gates if not for the fact that New York
is so stingy in allowing TD passes. He might get one, but I don't
foresee a Jermichael Finley-yardage line out of him. He's a physical
mismatch for either one of the Jets' safeties, but I have to assume
Rex Ryan will make Tomlinson or Malcom Floyd beat him as opposed
to Vincent Jackson or Gates. Something in the neighborhood of
6-80-1 would be the most I expect from Gates this weekend.
Clark may have taken a back seat to Tom Santi the last time the
Colts faced the Ravens, but I can't imagine that happening again.
I like what Baltimore has at safety a bit more than I do the Jets,
but Clark is a hard cover for a lot of CBs, much less safeties.
Much like Gates, he won't come close to posting career highs in
this game, but his track record is such that he won't let his
owners down. Although he's a better bet to explode than Gates,
I'm putting a bit more faith in Gates this weekend.
K: Kaeding. In a week-to-week format
like this one, it's often good strategy to pick a strong-legged
kicker who plays for a high-powered offense. Ideally, his team
is facing a top-notch defense, which then requires his team to
turn to him to kick at least two field goals. This week, I think
that description best suits Kaeding, who posted eight double-digit
fantasy point totals for San Diego this season using Fuzzy’s
scoring system. As is the case most weeks, I cannot come close
to guaranteeing that he'll give us No. 9, but I foresee a pair
of Philip Rivers’ TD passes with the rest of the Chargers'
points coming via Kaeding's leg. Whether that means he'll get
two attempts or five remains to be seen, but I believe he has
the best chance of any kicker this week to post a high number.
D/ST: Cowboys. I'm really not a
fan of the Cowboys, but I am happy to support any unit playing
as sound as Dallas is right now. The 'Boys are getting a high
level of production out of the three key spots from the front
seven of a 3-4 defense (NT Jay Ratliff; OLBs DeMarcus Ware and
Anthony Spencer) while everybody else is at least playing to their
potential. Just as the pass rush has picked up, the pass coverage
has also improved greatly as Dallas is getting very good play
from its CBs (Terence Newman, Orlando Scandrick and Mike Jenkins).
It ought to be interesting to see if the Cowboys' rush defense
maintains their play this week, however, as Adrian Peterson represents
the most formidable RB this defense has faced all season. Since
Dallas began its late-season run, it has faced a strong passing
team (New Orleans, Philadelphia) or an inept offense (Washington)
every time. In fact, the best fantasy back the 'Boys have faced
up to this point of the season is Ryan Grant (No. 10 overall in
PPR), so anyone looking for a chink in the improved Dallas defense
may have to wait until this weekend to see if it exists. Nevertheless,
the Cowboys are playing the best defense of any team remaining
and it's not unheard of that Brett Favre has a multi-INT game
in the playoffs, so Dallas is the clear choice for me this week.
e-mail me with any questions/comments.
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