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Paring Pairs
8/13/04

Americans have a penchant for duos. We have embraced the likes of Batman and Robin, Lucy and Ricky, Starsky and Hutch as well as Fred and Ginger. As of late what America has not fully embraced are some of the wide receivers in the National Football League. We know who wide receivers are; they are those Sharpie hiding, cell phone gathering whiney complainers who are always open yet never get the ball enough. Sure some of them are more sedate than others, but what position players have attracted more attention for their antics on and off the field than this august bunch of individuals who just want the damn ball?

It is hard to recall the last time an active quarterback was indicted and tried for murder, nor have there been any kickers who decided it would be fun just to push a traffic cop around with their vehicle. These guys are special, just ask them. Who else on the Cowboys team is on a first name basis with Coach Parcells? Only Keyshawn. There are actually fantasy owners who would rather have receivers off their roster than have to agonize over selecting a "hotdog" they dread watching all season. The fact remains, despite their egocentric behavior, wide receivers are an integral part of the game and one of the more exciting positions to watch. So what if Horn and T.O. made phone calls or took a cheerleader's pompoms while they were one the field, they had already scored making it necessary to display their inner joy to one and all.

There are two factors this fantasy season making wide receivers more attractive; rule changes and the lack of consistency inherent to the position. The first came about as a result of passing production last season culminating in an ugly playoff game between the Colts and the Patriots. The other is the fact receivers, outside of offensive linemen; get the fewest touches per game.

The Colts entered the AFC Championship game after shredding both the Denver and Kansas City defenses. In the snow, along with freezing temperatures of Foxboro the Colts met their match in a tenacious, unrelenting Patriot's defense. New England jammed, grabbed and mauled Indianapolis receivers while at the same time applying pressure to Peyton Manning. Replay after replay demonstrated Colt receivers being punished by Patriot defensive backs and backers making route discipline impossible. Forget referees usually allow more aggressive play during the championship season, what many people in the audience saw was a mugging in progress with the zebras doing nothing to discourage it. Apparently some of the members of the audience were NFL owners because when they held their annual meeting it was decided by the rule's committee this aggressive behavior could no longer be a part of an offensive oriented league.

The 2003 season saw an eleven-year-low in the average number of passing yards per game as it dropped to 202 yards per game; down 10 yards from the previous year. For 2004, officials are supposed to crack down on holding or illegal contact by defensive backs past the five yard contact zone. Couple this fact with some of the movement of receivers in the league and it could be a stellar year for wide outs, but which ones will be in a position to take advantage of this relaxation of contact rules?

With these factors in mind it might be time to turn back to some old school strategies regarding the drafting of these magnificent mustangs. There was a day when an owner could take John Taylor (Jerry Rice's opposite) or Chris Carter (Randy Moss's partner) or even a Clayton or Duper and know you were getting a solid ten plus points per game. In fact statistics would seem to indicate "star" receivers seem to improve when they have a quality playmate to compliment them.

After Chris Carter left, it took Randy Moss two seasons to finally get enough support to return to the numbers he posted as a rookie. Terrell Owens seemed to thrive with J.J. Stokes, but his production fell off with the introduction of Tai Streets. Keyshawn Johnson…well Keyshawn still sees himself as a one-man-show. (Can anyone say the word disillusioned?) There was some significant movement, in the form of acquisitions, made during the off-season making it time for fantasy owners to look out for the other guy.

There are some good receiver combinations in the league; in order to narrow the focus of this piece tandems are going to be organized into two groups. The "elite" duos are receiving teams with a proven track record or are just so tantalizing they can not be ignored. The other group of pairs is going to be classified as having "potential." Everyone has potential, but few rise to the level of achieved. This second grouping is going to consist of receiver combinations which appear to have the ability to blossom.

Holt & Bruce
First amongst the "elite" classes are receiver/quarterback combinations who are returning intact for the 2004 campaign. Marc Bulger became the starter in St. Louis last season; this year should be a year of improvement for him. His two mainstay receivers, Tory Holt and Isaac Bruce, are also returning. Holt had a fabulous season last season while Bruce had a sub-par year for him. While Holt lit things up with 1,696 yards for 12 TD's and 117 receptions, Bruce had almost 1,000 yards with 69 receptions for only five scores. The 2003 season was an anomaly for Bruce. Since these two got together in 1999 they have combined for 12,582 yards and 74 TD's, look for more of the same for this season. They earned the title, "Greatest Show on Turf," but Indianapolis could take center ring in the 2004 season.

Harrison & Wayne
Peyton Manning leads a returning tandem of Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. Last year they combined for 17 TD's along with 2,110 yards. Predictably Harrison was the man, but Wayne had 68 receptions for 838 yards and seven TD's. Manning is, arguably, the best pure passer in the league; the rule changes should assist this trio to even greater heights this season. If you can't have Marvin, Reggie is a good pick up; considered in the later rounds. Wayne may not have the flash of Bruce, but he is consistent.

Moss & Robinson
Change is a constant in the NFL allowing some teams to add quality via free agency. The Vikings and Jets are among this group. The combination of Culpepper and Pennington to the Mosses (Randy and Santana) is still intact, but both teams have upped the quality of their off-side receivers. The Vikings tapped Marcus Robinson from the Ravens to compliment Randy Moss. With some assistance last year from a couple of marginal receivers, Randy had his best TD season (17 scores) since the departure of Chris Carter. What Robinson brings to the table is size, 6'3" and 215 pounds, to compliment Moss's 6'4" 210 pounds. In addition to this Marcus brings seven years of league service in the "less than pass friendly" Baltimore organization.

Moss & McCareins
Santana Moss produced in his third year as a receiver gaining over a thousand yards while scoring ten times. The Jets went out and found an up and coming jewel in the form of Justin McCareins. Last season McCareins teamed up with Steve McNair for 813 yards and 7 TD's with 47 receptions. He came on strong at the end of the season and had some owners scrambling for him on the free agent market. With fresh fuel in the tank, the Jets passing game is ready to take off touching down often in an end zone near you.

Johnson & Warrick
To say the quarterback is not critical to a receivers success is like saying Cher never had plastic surgery. The QB is the guy who handles the ball on virtually every play and his success is the success of receivers. The Bengals are banking on second year man Carson Palmer. Last season Jon Kitna almost took the team to the playoffs, a major reason for his success was the receiving combo of Peter Warrick and Chad Johnson. This year Kitna sits while the reigns are handed to Heisman Trophy winner Palmer; the receivers are still intact. Johnson emerged as the star with 10 TD's, 1,355 receiving yards and 90 receptions, but Warrick was not far behind. The former Florida State receiver had 819 yards with seven TD's in 79 receptions. Johnson was a third year receiver last season making this duo dynamic for the 2004 season, providing Palmer lives up to expectations. If Palmer stumbles there is still a consistent eager Kitna waiting in the wings with proven ability to produce.

Receiving tandems which have potential are duos who have been missing a variable in the past. It could be in part to injury, a player, or talent which has yet ripened. These are teams which bear watching in the pre-season to how they develop and what combinations may prove to be worthy of a draft selection.

Horn & Stallworth
There are a few throwing and receiving combinations returning intact for this season. A couple started out last season together, but had the injury bug bite making consistency illusive. Donte Stallworth, Aaron Brooks and Joe Horn have been together for the last two seasons making this a probable break out season for Stallworth. The biggest barrier prohibiting the development of Donte has been his hamstrings. Last season he saw limited action in 11 games garnering only 485 yards and a paltry 3 visits to the end zone. The bad news is Stallworth has shown a tendency for injury since his eight TD rookie year, the good news is the Saints know it. Apparently this problem has been addressed in the off season. With good health this combination could be heavenly for both the team and fantasy owners.

Driver/Ferguson/Walker
Another intact receiving unit from last season exists within the confines of Lambeau Field and the Green Bay Packers. Brett Favre may have a disfigured throwing thumb, but injuries never stopped him in the past. What should make fantasy owners leery of jumping on the receiving corps of the Pack is the posted depth chart. Donald Driver and Robert Ferguson are listed as the starters, but both are coming off of dismal seasons. Driver had 621 yards with 2 TD's while Ferguson had 520 yards with 4 TD's in 38 receptions. The man listed as a third receiver is Javon Walker. He led the team last year in receiving with 716 yards coupled with 9 TD's. These are respectable numbers, but the over all picture in Green Bay is as clouded as a blizzard. Unless an owner has some inside scoop, this could be a developing picture during the season.

Porter & Rice
The Raiders have stated Rich Gannon is their man. Tim Brown has opted for the greener pastures of Tampa Bay making Jerry Porter the youngest, strongest and most enticing receiver on the team. He is listed as the number one receiver with Jerry Rice as the number two guy. If, as advertised, Porter can be the size and speed guy, Rice may find himself more available for the ball making him able to improve over a two TD sub 1,000 yard season. With rumors floating out of the Bay Area saying Gannon's long passes are falling short, Kerry Collins may be a better fit for a vertical stretch offense both Norv Turner and Al Davis like to employ. This is a situation which should be monitored during the pre-season. The good thing is the NFL will be showing more pre-season games this year, the bad news is the Raiders seem to be about as stable as landfill during an earthquake.

Smith & Edwards
Jacksonville will return the combination of Bryan Leftwich to a couple of pros; Jimmy Smith and Troy Edwards. Last year was a learning year for rookie Leftwich, but the team has enough confidence in him to send Mark Brunell to the Redskins. Jack Del Rio is beginning to shape a team making last year a year of gaining familiarity between both quarterback and receiver. Smith is a proven veteran. Despite his suspension of four games for abuse of illegal substance, he gained 805 yards with four TD's. Edwards numbers were less than impressive, but the Jaguars return a balanced offense with a healthy Fred Taylor. Given these factors look for improvement from all players concerned and steady, if not spectacular, results.

Robinson & Jackson
Matt Hasselbeck is coming off a season where he threw for 3,841 yards with 26 touchdowns against 15 interceptions. He seems to have come into his own as a viable fantasy prospect, what is even better is he has spent the last three seasons with the same pair of receivers; Koren Robinson and Darrell Jackson. Jackson has established himself as a top notch receiver last year gaining 1,137 yards with nine scores; Robinson has been a different story. When he came out of North Carolina State he was hyped as being a sure fire pro-bowler, he has failed to live up to those predictions. Last season he had 896 yards with four touchdowns, it is time for this guy to step up; this is the year to do it. Jackson is a definite first receiver, or an exceptional second, but Robinson could be someone to take on spec in the later rounds of the draft. Given the weakness of their division, this could be the year the Seahawks soar.

Of course there are receiving combinations in the league not mentioned in this article, some for good reason. To address the fans concerns of not seeing their favorite receiving tandems on the list, a category called "why not?" has been added…SO Why Not???

  • After refusing to go to Baltimore in a trade, Terrell Owens landed in the City of Brotherly Love. Love may make the world go round, but it will take more than an advertised McNabb to Owens love fest to make the Eagles passing game more than a one trick pony. Opposite T.O. will be the less than dynamic Todd Pinkston or Fred Mitchell. During the 2003 title push this combination gained just over a thousand yards coupled with four (two apiece) scores. The Eagles will need more than TO to have a viable passing game.

  • The Denver Broncos have a threat with Rod Smith, Jake Plummer and third year player Ashley Lelie, but more fizzle than sizzle. Smith has been declining in production for the last few seasons racking up 8 TD's in the last few seasons. Lelie has hardly been on fire with 2 TD's last season in 37 receptions. The Broncos may be high on Marshall grad Darius Watts or second year man Adrian Madise, but this horse needs more oats.

  • It would be a wonderful thing for Mark Brunell and Joe Gibbs to ride off into the sunset ending great careers with a couple of guns like Coles and Gardner, but not every western has a happy ending; especially when they play in the East. Look for this combination to put up average numbers in a run first, "pass when you have to" offense.

  • Speaking of the West, Dallas has had one of their more memorable camp openings with the departure of Quincy Carter. Now Coach Parcells has his old war horse Vinny Testaverde back under saddle, but this will not matter. Keyshawn Johnson will not be Texas savior and Terry Glenn is not the colt he used to be when he was a "she" in New England.

  • The Lion's den may be welcoming Roy Williams, along with a returning Charles Rogers, but the catch phrase may be "wait until next year." Harrington's crew, which includes Tai Streets and Az-Zahir Hakim, may appear formidable on paper, but games are played on some sort of green turf. There are too many "ifs" to make this crew real meat eaters. They may be a good selection in the last three rounds of a draft for spec purposes, but, with the possible exception of Harrington, they can not be considered man eaters yet.

  • With the entire passing triangle returning, the Pittsburgh Steelers should have an effective passing game. Hines Ward is a staple, but Maddox is coming off a sub-par season while Plaxico Burress seems to be in need of an attitude adjustment. Bill Cower may have a new contract extension, but another lack luster year of aerial production could be the death of play off hopes in 2004. Perhaps Randel El can step up in his third season. This could be a change for the better allowing them to iron out some past problems.

The realm of the wide receiver is an unpredictable one. A few seasons ago a rookie in Arizona named David Boston had an outstanding season; last year is was a little known rookie Anquan Boldin who had a terrific season for the same team. After descending to the depths of San Diego, then moving to Miami, Boston looked to revive his career. Last week he ended his season with a knee injury; this week Boldin had surgery forcing him to sit eight to twelve weeks. Another rookie, perhaps Larry Fitzgerald, Lee Evans or Roy Williams may have a stand out season. Any one of these receivers may be worthy of a late round draft pick, but success for any fantasy owner is a mixture of selecting proven ability while at the same time spotting emerging talent.

With receiving units demonstrating year after year their volatility it is best to consider as many options as possible. One of the best options is to watch out for the other guy as they may be the starter at any given time. At the very least the off-side receiver can be a viable number three consideration, sometimes even a number two during an off week. Owners may build strength with a fine running team, but who can resist the excitement of not knowing what your best wide receiver is going to do or even where they are going to be next? Paring down the pairs may take some of the excitement out of the season, but give me consistent production any time. For consistency I am willing to avert my eyes and sensibilities to exuberant behavior while coming out a winner.