8/13/04
Americans have a penchant for duos. We have embraced the likes of
Batman and Robin, Lucy and Ricky, Starsky and Hutch as well as Fred
and Ginger. As of late what America has not fully embraced are some
of the wide receivers in the National Football League. We know who
wide receivers are; they are those Sharpie hiding, cell phone gathering
whiney complainers who are always open yet never get the ball enough.
Sure some of them are more sedate than others, but what position
players have attracted more attention for their antics on and off
the field than this august bunch of individuals who just want the
damn ball?
It is hard to recall the last time an active quarterback was
indicted and tried for murder, nor have there been any kickers
who decided it would be fun just to push a traffic cop around
with their vehicle. These guys are special, just ask them. Who
else on the Cowboys team is on a first name basis with Coach Parcells?
Only Keyshawn. There are actually fantasy owners who would rather
have receivers off their roster than have to agonize over selecting
a "hotdog" they dread watching all season. The fact
remains, despite their egocentric behavior, wide receivers are
an integral part of the game and one of the more exciting positions
to watch. So what if Horn and T.O. made phone calls or took a
cheerleader's pompoms while they were one the field, they had
already scored making it necessary to display their inner joy
to one and all.
There are two factors this fantasy season making wide receivers
more attractive; rule changes and the lack of consistency inherent
to the position. The first came about as a result of passing production
last season culminating in an ugly playoff game between the Colts
and the Patriots. The other is the fact receivers, outside of
offensive linemen; get the fewest touches per game.
The Colts entered the AFC Championship game after shredding
both the Denver and Kansas City defenses. In the snow, along with
freezing temperatures of Foxboro the Colts met their match in
a tenacious, unrelenting Patriot's defense. New England jammed,
grabbed and mauled Indianapolis receivers while at the same time
applying pressure to Peyton Manning. Replay after replay demonstrated
Colt receivers being punished by Patriot defensive backs and backers
making route discipline impossible. Forget referees usually allow
more aggressive play during the championship season, what many
people in the audience saw was a mugging in progress with the
zebras doing nothing to discourage it. Apparently some of the
members of the audience were NFL owners because when they held
their annual meeting it was decided by the rule's committee this
aggressive behavior could no longer be a part of an offensive
oriented league.
The 2003 season saw an eleven-year-low in the average number
of passing yards per game as it dropped to 202 yards per game;
down 10 yards from the previous year. For 2004, officials are
supposed to crack down on holding or illegal contact by defensive
backs past the five yard contact zone. Couple this fact with some
of the movement of receivers in the league and it could be a stellar
year for wide outs, but which ones will be in a position to take
advantage of this relaxation of contact rules?
With these factors in mind it might be time to turn back to
some old school strategies regarding the drafting of these magnificent
mustangs. There was a day when an owner could take John Taylor
(Jerry Rice's opposite) or Chris Carter (Randy Moss's partner)
or even a Clayton or Duper and know you were getting a solid ten
plus points per game. In fact statistics would seem to indicate
"star" receivers seem to improve when they have a quality
playmate to compliment them.
After Chris Carter left, it took Randy Moss two seasons to finally
get enough support to return to the numbers he posted as a rookie.
Terrell Owens seemed to thrive with J.J. Stokes, but his production
fell off with the introduction of Tai Streets. Keyshawn Johnson
well
Keyshawn still sees himself as a one-man-show. (Can anyone say
the word disillusioned?) There was some significant
movement, in the form of acquisitions, made during the off-season
making it time for fantasy owners to look out for the other guy.
There are some good receiver combinations in the league; in
order to narrow the focus of this piece tandems are going to be
organized into two groups. The "elite"
duos are receiving teams with a proven track record or are just
so tantalizing they can not be ignored. The other group of pairs
is going to be classified as having "potential."
Everyone has potential, but few rise to the level of achieved.
This second grouping is going to consist of receiver combinations
which appear to have the ability to blossom.
Holt & Bruce
First amongst the "elite" classes are receiver/quarterback
combinations who are returning intact for the 2004 campaign. Marc
Bulger became the starter in St. Louis last season; this year
should be a year of improvement for him. His two mainstay receivers,
Tory Holt and Isaac Bruce, are also returning. Holt had a fabulous
season last season while Bruce had a sub-par year for him. While
Holt lit things up with 1,696 yards for 12 TD's and 117 receptions,
Bruce had almost 1,000 yards with 69 receptions for only five
scores. The 2003 season was an anomaly for Bruce. Since these
two got together in 1999 they have combined for 12,582 yards and
74 TD's, look for more of the same for this season. They earned
the title, "Greatest Show on Turf," but Indianapolis
could take center ring in the 2004 season.
Harrison & Wayne
Peyton Manning leads a returning tandem of Marvin Harrison and
Reggie Wayne. Last year they combined for 17 TD's along with 2,110
yards. Predictably Harrison was the man, but Wayne had 68 receptions
for 838 yards and seven TD's. Manning is, arguably, the best pure
passer in the league; the rule changes should assist this trio
to even greater heights this season. If you can't have Marvin,
Reggie is a good pick up; considered in the later rounds. Wayne
may not have the flash of Bruce, but he is consistent.
Moss & Robinson
Change is a constant in the NFL allowing some teams to add quality
via free agency. The Vikings and Jets are among this group. The
combination of Culpepper and Pennington to the Mosses (Randy and
Santana) is still intact, but both teams have upped the quality
of their off-side receivers. The Vikings tapped Marcus Robinson
from the Ravens to compliment Randy Moss. With some assistance
last year from a couple of marginal receivers, Randy had his best
TD season (17 scores) since the departure of Chris Carter. What
Robinson brings to the table is size, 6'3" and 215 pounds,
to compliment Moss's 6'4" 210 pounds. In addition to this
Marcus brings seven years of league service in the "less
than pass friendly" Baltimore organization.
Moss & McCareins
Santana Moss produced in his third year as a receiver gaining
over a thousand yards while scoring ten times. The Jets went out
and found an up and coming jewel in the form of Justin McCareins.
Last season McCareins teamed up with Steve McNair for 813 yards
and 7 TD's with 47 receptions. He came on strong at the end of
the season and had some owners scrambling for him on the free
agent market. With fresh fuel in the tank, the Jets passing game
is ready to take off touching down often in an end zone near you.
Johnson & Warrick
To say the quarterback is not critical to a receivers success
is like saying Cher never had plastic surgery. The QB is the guy
who handles the ball on virtually every play and his success is
the success of receivers. The Bengals are banking on second year
man Carson Palmer. Last season Jon Kitna almost took the team
to the playoffs, a major reason for his success was the receiving
combo of Peter Warrick and Chad Johnson. This year Kitna sits
while the reigns are handed to Heisman Trophy winner Palmer; the
receivers are still intact. Johnson emerged as the star with 10
TD's, 1,355 receiving yards and 90 receptions, but Warrick was
not far behind. The former Florida State receiver had 819 yards
with seven TD's in 79 receptions. Johnson was a third year receiver
last season making this duo dynamic for the 2004 season, providing
Palmer lives up to expectations. If Palmer stumbles there is still
a consistent eager Kitna waiting in the wings with proven ability
to produce.
Receiving tandems which have potential are duos who have been
missing a variable in the past. It could be in part to injury,
a player, or talent which has yet ripened. These are teams which
bear watching in the pre-season to how they develop and what combinations
may prove to be worthy of a draft selection.
Horn & Stallworth
There are a few throwing and receiving combinations returning
intact for this season. A couple started out last season together,
but had the injury bug bite making consistency illusive. Donte
Stallworth, Aaron Brooks and Joe Horn have been together for the
last two seasons making this a probable break out season for Stallworth.
The biggest barrier prohibiting the development of Donte has been
his hamstrings. Last season he saw limited action in 11 games
garnering only 485 yards and a paltry 3 visits to the end zone.
The bad news is Stallworth has shown a tendency for injury since
his eight TD rookie year, the good news is the Saints know it.
Apparently this problem has been addressed in the off season.
With good health this combination could be heavenly for both the
team and fantasy owners.
Driver/Ferguson/Walker
Another intact receiving unit from last season exists within the
confines of Lambeau Field and the Green Bay Packers. Brett Favre
may have a disfigured throwing thumb, but injuries never stopped
him in the past. What should make fantasy owners leery of jumping
on the receiving corps of the Pack is the posted depth chart.
Donald Driver and Robert Ferguson are listed as the starters,
but both are coming off of dismal seasons. Driver had 621 yards
with 2 TD's while Ferguson had 520 yards with 4 TD's in 38 receptions.
The man listed as a third receiver is Javon Walker. He led the
team last year in receiving with 716 yards coupled with 9 TD's.
These are respectable numbers, but the over all picture in Green
Bay is as clouded as a blizzard. Unless an owner has some inside
scoop, this could be a developing picture during the season.
Porter & Rice
The Raiders have stated Rich Gannon is their man. Tim Brown has
opted for the greener pastures of Tampa Bay making Jerry Porter
the youngest, strongest and most enticing receiver on the team.
He is listed as the number one receiver with Jerry Rice as the
number two guy. If, as advertised, Porter can be the size and
speed guy, Rice may find himself more available for the ball making
him able to improve over a two TD sub 1,000 yard season. With
rumors floating out of the Bay Area saying Gannon's long passes
are falling short, Kerry Collins may be a better fit for a vertical
stretch offense both Norv Turner and Al Davis like to employ.
This is a situation which should be monitored during the pre-season.
The good thing is the NFL will be showing more pre-season games
this year, the bad news is the Raiders seem to be about as stable
as landfill during an earthquake.
Smith & Edwards
Jacksonville will return the combination of Bryan Leftwich to
a couple of pros; Jimmy Smith and Troy Edwards. Last year was
a learning year for rookie Leftwich, but the team has enough confidence
in him to send Mark Brunell to the Redskins. Jack Del Rio is beginning
to shape a team making last year a year of gaining familiarity
between both quarterback and receiver. Smith is a proven veteran.
Despite his suspension of four games for abuse of illegal substance,
he gained 805 yards with four TD's. Edwards numbers were less
than impressive, but the Jaguars return a balanced offense with
a healthy Fred Taylor. Given these factors look for improvement
from all players concerned and steady, if not spectacular, results.
Robinson & Jackson
Matt Hasselbeck is coming off a season where he threw for 3,841
yards with 26 touchdowns against 15 interceptions. He seems to
have come into his own as a viable fantasy prospect, what is even
better is he has spent the last three seasons with the same pair
of receivers; Koren Robinson and Darrell Jackson. Jackson has
established himself as a top notch receiver last year gaining
1,137 yards with nine scores; Robinson has been a different story.
When he came out of North Carolina State he was hyped as being
a sure fire pro-bowler, he has failed to live up to those predictions.
Last season he had 896 yards with four touchdowns, it is time
for this guy to step up; this is the year to do it. Jackson is
a definite first receiver, or an exceptional second, but Robinson
could be someone to take on spec in the later rounds of the draft.
Given the weakness of their division, this could be the year the
Seahawks soar.
Of course there are receiving combinations in the league not
mentioned in this article, some for good reason. To address the
fans concerns of not seeing their favorite receiving tandems on
the list, a category called "why not?" has been added
SO
Why Not???
- After refusing to go to Baltimore in a trade, Terrell Owens
landed in the City of Brotherly Love. Love may make the world
go round, but it will take more than an advertised McNabb to
Owens love fest to make the Eagles passing game more than a
one trick pony. Opposite T.O. will be the less than dynamic
Todd Pinkston or Fred Mitchell. During the 2003 title push this
combination gained just over a thousand yards coupled with four
(two apiece) scores. The Eagles will need more than TO to have
a viable passing game.
- The Denver Broncos have a threat with Rod Smith, Jake Plummer
and third year player Ashley Lelie, but more fizzle than sizzle.
Smith has been declining in production for the last few seasons
racking up 8 TD's in the last few seasons. Lelie has hardly
been on fire with 2 TD's last season in 37 receptions. The Broncos
may be high on Marshall grad Darius Watts or second year man
Adrian Madise, but this horse needs more oats.
- It would be a wonderful thing for Mark Brunell and Joe Gibbs
to ride off into the sunset ending great careers with a couple
of guns like Coles and Gardner, but not every western has a
happy ending; especially when they play in the East. Look for
this combination to put up average numbers in a run first, "pass
when you have to" offense.
- Speaking of the West, Dallas has had one of their more memorable
camp openings with the departure of Quincy Carter. Now Coach
Parcells has his old war horse Vinny Testaverde back under saddle,
but this will not matter. Keyshawn Johnson will not be Texas
savior and Terry Glenn is not the colt he used to be when he
was a "she" in New England.
- The Lion's den may be welcoming Roy Williams, along with
a returning Charles Rogers, but the catch phrase may be "wait
until next year." Harrington's crew, which includes Tai
Streets and Az-Zahir Hakim, may appear formidable on paper,
but games are played on some sort of green turf. There are too
many "ifs" to make this crew real meat eaters. They
may be a good selection in the last three rounds of a draft
for spec purposes, but, with the possible exception of Harrington,
they can not be considered man eaters yet.
- With the entire passing triangle returning, the Pittsburgh
Steelers should have an effective passing game. Hines Ward is
a staple, but Maddox is coming off a sub-par season while Plaxico
Burress seems to be in need of an attitude adjustment. Bill
Cower may have a new contract extension, but another lack luster
year of aerial production could be the death of play off hopes
in 2004. Perhaps Randel El can step up in his third season.
This could be a change for the better allowing them to iron
out some past problems.
The realm of the wide receiver is an unpredictable one. A few
seasons ago a rookie in Arizona named David Boston had an outstanding
season; last year is was a little known rookie Anquan Boldin who
had a terrific season for the same team. After descending to the
depths of San Diego, then moving to Miami, Boston looked to revive
his career. Last week he ended his season with a knee injury;
this week Boldin had surgery forcing him to sit eight to twelve
weeks. Another rookie, perhaps Larry Fitzgerald, Lee Evans or
Roy Williams may have a stand out season. Any one of these receivers
may be worthy of a late round draft pick, but success for any
fantasy owner is a mixture of selecting proven ability while at
the same time spotting emerging talent.
With receiving units demonstrating year after year their volatility
it is best to consider as many options as possible. One of the
best options is to watch out for the other guy as they may be
the starter at any given time. At the very least the off-side
receiver can be a viable number three consideration, sometimes
even a number two during an off week. Owners may build strength
with a fine running team, but who can resist the excitement of
not knowing what your best wide receiver is going to do or even
where they are going to be next? Paring down the pairs may take
some of the excitement out of the season, but give me consistent
production any time. For consistency I am willing to avert my
eyes and sensibilities to exuberant behavior while coming out
a winner.
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