8/7/06
So far 2006 has not been my favorite year in any way shape or form.
It has not been the worst, but it is far from being the best.
Being a teacher I usually have something called summer vacation.
It is time to get away from the grind of kids to reflect on the
problems coming up next year as well as recover from the beating
only junior high students can give an adult. This summer has contained
nothing of the sort. Instead this summer has been dedicated to
matters of the heart; literally. After two near death experiences
in as many days I awoke to find myself tethered to a bed awaiting
surgery.
For some silly reason they want you remain fairly calm when
they diagnose a heart condition. Fortunately I had my laptop with
me along with some form of connection to the net. I spent some
time emailing concerned friends; I spent more time looking at
fantasy football news and mock drafts. After spending hour after
hour on this material two conclusions struck me; the popularity
of the fantasy game has never been higher yet the creative aspect
of the game has never been lower.
I have the handle “Old School” within the confines
of this web site, the name fits. I have been at this game too
many years. I began before the digital revolution and "pay
for information" sites. I was playing before there were people
to consult regarding player performance and before there was television
dedicated to nothing but fantasy football. All the information
owners could garner regarding players came from memory, notes
from past seasons and general information from the print media.
Everyone entered the draft knowing it was a crap shoot, yet enjoying
every second of it. Most owners shot directly from the hip playing
their hunches for the season. Some even hit their marks. Things
have changed considerably. Like the presidential elections, it
seems the season never ends; it just blurs into the next one.
Leagues are forming earlier while my email from owners is arriving
sooner. It used to wait until late July or early August, now I
have people writing me in the middle of June as they are already
planning their drafts while sorting their selections. The anticipation
is still there, especially as teams head into camps, what is lacking
is the element of creativity.
After looking at hundreds of mock drafts, one thing has become
apparent, like the real NFL, everyone is following a system. In
this case, the system is “get your running backs ASAP and
screw the other positions." For the most part, the first
three rounds were dominated by running back selections. This pattern
began to break in the third round, but only slightly... QB Peyton
Manning, WR Steve Smith, with a few other receivers, made an appearance.
The running back run kept its’ momentum into the fourth
round with about half the picks going to ball carriers.
It seems owners have become obsessed with having these brittle,
sometimes unproductive individuals. Some owners were going as
far as three deep into a team’s depth chart to procure enough
stallions to fill their stable. By the end of the drafts there
were owners who had as many as eight running backs in the stalls.
They would back this up with two quarterbacks; usually taken in
the middle and late rounds, along with four wide outs, a tight
end, a kicker and the defense they were allowed. Like dogs with
insatiable appetites, some owners were spending the first five
rounds on nothing but rushers of the NFL at the expense of all
other positions.
Of course the position of running back has always been important.
Teams lived or died on the abilities of these ball carriers. Anyone
who had Thurman Thomas, Emmitt Smith or Marcus Allen in their
primes knows the value of the RB. Few players have had the impact
of a Marshall Faulk of Edgerrin James. Anyone sitting there with
a top three pick has to be considering which RB to take as the
consensus seems to be one of the following backs; LaDainian Tomlinson,
Shaun Alexander or Larry Johnson. The order of potential talent
depends on what publication you are reading, but these are the
“Big Three” running backs of the NFL and fantasy football.
In one publication fourteen of their top twenty selections are
running backs. There is one QB (guess who?) and five wide receivers.
What may be more striking is their first nine players are all
running backs.
It has always been traditional wisdom to select running backs,
then begin building a team around them, but this did not have
to be the case. Creative owners could select a wide receiver or
a quarterback in the first round to begin to build a team around
because there was enough diversity in the league to permit this;
not anymore.
I still watch a lot of sports programming on TV, I also read
as much as I can get my hands on through the year. Few teams are
even mentioned as “passing teams." Not even the vaunted
Raider vertical stretch is mentioned as they too have gone the
way of establishing the run. There is one team constantly mentioned
as a “passing team”; the Philadelphia Eagles.
Excuse me! Is there any owner out there looking to take an Eagle
in the first, or even second round of their draft? Their receiving
corps, with the exception of the TO era, has never been anything
to brag about. In fact, until TO the only Philly receiver anyone
would consider spending a high draft selection on would have been
Harold Carmichael, he is over a decade removed from the game.
Looking at the current crop of receivers the Eagles plan on
using for this season’s campaign, they total seven TD’s
from last season. Is there anyone out there planning on spending
more than a possible last round pick on Todd Pinkston or Reggie
Brown? The best receiver on the Eagle’s team is their RB
Brian Westbrook who had seven TD’s last season, four of
them through the air. Still, Westbrook should not be a running
back consideration until after the second round. The same could
be said about Donovan McNabb who, though tough as nails, is coming
off an injury season with virtually nothing in the way of top
ranked talent to infiltrate a secondary. If this is what is recognized
as a passing team in the NFL, the aerial attack is in dire straights.
Sure the Colts have a flying circus when Peyton gets it going.
The Rams can even have the potential of airing it out when Marc
Bulger is not sitting on the bench injured. With the exception
of Manning, is there anyone there deserving of a selection in
the first two rounds of a draft? The Colts spread the ball around
too much to consider Marvin Harrison a top draft selection. The
Rams are supposed to focus more on the run to consider selecting
Torry Holt until after the second round. Outside of Manning the
only consideration in the first couple of rounds of a draft might
be Steven Jackson if he can improve over last year’s performance.
The league, because it does such a wonderful job of playing
“Follow the Successful System” has always been a realm
of follow the leader. From the innovation called the “T”
formation to the single back offense it is the system which dictates
everything.
Bill Walsh brought the West Coast offense into the league back
in the 80’s. After a few Super Bowl wins other teams adopted
it with success. Warren Moon was brought into the league from
Canada to manage the “Run and Shoot” offense featuring
a single back. It too caught on within the league. Defenses are
either a 3-4 or a 4-3 with every team employing their “Nickel”
and “Dime” packages. The players may make the system
go, but players are drafted to feed the system of a given team.
The system is king, not the people running it. The game of “Follow
the System” has now infiltrated the fantasy world.
Now everyone, if they want to have a chance at a championship,
must step in line and follow suit. It is running back, running
back, then perhaps more running back on the menu if an owner plans
on eating like a big dog come play-off time. The only problem
with the menu is it gets tedious eating the same meal over and
over, running back is no different.
It might seem inevitable fantasy leagues would have to follow
the dictates of the NFL, but that does not make it more fun. The
daring used to be in the draft strategy, now it lies in what running
back an owner is willing to take a chance on if they are picking
beyond the number three slot in their draft. Like an assembly
line, drafts around the world of fantasy have accomplished the
fete of making the same product over and over. Some are going
to perform better as they will be built better, but will have
virtually the same look and the same feel.
Recently ESPN the Magazine ran an article written by
Bill Simmons, the “Sports Guy.” In the article Simmons
dissects the problems with fantasy football, then proposes solutions
to those problems. The solutions, like the title of the article
“The New Rules” are a rip off moving the realm of
fantasy to more uniformity. The prescription calls for uniform
sizes to leagues, uniform scoring, uniform draft selections all
made in the image of ESPN television, uniformity. Heck, the TV
side of ESPN is offering Mort at your draft so you could draft
just like him.
Alexander de Tocqueville, a keen observer of America and history,
made many observations regarding the behavior of civilizations
and people. One of my favorite observations he made goes something
like this. “The first sign of a civilization in decline
is their push towards uniformity.” If this is the case,
and I believe it is, then the NFL has been in decline since the
80’s and early 90’s. It took some doing, but regrettably
fantasy football may be facing the same plight. Make no mistake,
it will always enhance the NFL season, but it may no longer be
the fertile creative breeding ground it once was. Still, it is
the best game in town.
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