Are you the kind of fantasy football owner who goes into instant hibernation
the moment your team is mathematically eliminated from the postseason?
Do you reawaken only when you see a fantasy football draft magazine
in your peripheral vision as you search for the latest issue of Maxim
at the 7-Eleven? Well, it's time to start thinking again. The show
is about to start, and some key actors have changed roles. In this
column I will discuss a few of the key shifts in NFL personnel and
the effect they will have on fantasy performance.
Tampa Bay Lightning?
Brad Johnson is better than Shaun King. Brad Johnson is more brittle
than Chris Chandler with osteoporosis. These two eternal truths make
for some intriguing decisions. Keyshawn Johnson, Warrick Dunn, heck,
even Jacquez Green have serious fantasy value if Johnson is healthy.
The hard part is how to place their relative value in the draft considering
that it is exceptionally unlikely that Johnson will start most of
16 games. Should King be forced to take over, forget Green, Dunn's
value suffers greatly and Keyshawn goes down a notch. (Note I didn't
mention Alstott, whose value, in my opinion, is unaffected by the
quarterback choice). So, is Keyshawn in the same class as Moss, Harrison,
Bruce et al., or not? Guess right and you could take the league you're
in; guess wrong and you might never be in it.
KC
Gets Dick Vermeil, that is. Trent Green gets his chance in Kansas City,
in the system that led the Rams to glory. Every fantasy publication
is predicting a great year for Green, and if you aren't sold on Tony
Gonzalez yet I can't help you, so I won't bore you with the obvious.
Instead, let's focus on another player with big upside--Priest Holmes.
Holmes is a very talented back, who always seems to be every team's
second choice to start. Well, in KC he is all they have at RB. Last
year's committee was a disaster. Regardless of his activity in the
passing game, Holmes will face defenses who will never put 8 men in
the box. In that style of offense, the passing game comes first, leading
to second half rushing. Holmes should excel in this role.
The fantasy GM of the year award will go to the owner who successfully
identifies the number 2 WR in KC. That position is bound to benefit
under the Martz style offensive system. The offensive coordinator,
Al Saunders, coached the STL wideouts last year and could have a soft
spot for Tony Horne. Horne is a monster return man with little experience
at receiver. Derrick Mayes could fill this role but his historical
record doesn't fill me with confidence. My boldest prediction here?
The Chiefs sign Terry Glenn, prompting a sobbing Dick Vermeil to get
in touch with his feminine side. The Chiefs are tight on cap money,
so this may just be my personal fantasy (no, not sexual). However,
any quality receiver in the #2 spot will have good numbers. Sylvester
Morris would have filled this role well but for injury.
Dear
Trent Letter Why would anyone ever dump a quarterback who led you to the
Super Bowl title? Because he's Trent Dilfer. Elvis Grbac will be a
viable fantasy starter in Baltimore this year; he has a ton of offensive
weapons, he has self-proclaimed offensive genius Brian Billick for
a coach, and his defense will give him plenty of chances to score.
It is hard to believe that a team with Jamal Lewis, Travis Taylor,
Shannon Sharpe and Qadry Ismail would have had trouble scoring last
year. There are only two reasons for it-- Dilfer and Tony Banks. Both
are gone.
Speaking of Pretty Tony Banks has a dynamic arm, but has failed to grasp the leadership
role inherent in the position he plays. In St. Louis, he was surrounded
by no-talent slugs, but how do you explain the Baltimore scoring drought?
One tremendous game early last season is about all of which this man's
resume can boast. Now, Jerry Jones gives him the pressure-packed job
of succeeding Troy Aikman in Dallas. It's like buying a ready-made
scapegoat. Dallas fans will quickly figure out that Banks is not Aikman.
Then it's all over. The effect? Emmitt's game will suffer to the extent
that Banks can't move the team down the field. Joey Galloway and Rocket
Ismail will have inconsistent years. Their speed will enable Banks
to air it out, creating big play potential. However, Banks' inability
to pass a football accurately in 7-yard increments makes the point
production hard to predict on a week-to-week basis. I would hate to
have to make that guess each week.
Turnaround
in San Diego The Falcons went from last in the NFC West to the Super Bowl
in '98. The Rams did it in '99. How big a turnaround can the Chargers
make? I don't predict Super Bowl, but consider this offense from a
fantasy football perspective. Flutie at QB, Tomlinson at RB, Jones
at TE and Conway at WR. Not the Rams, perhaps, but very respectable,
if all stay healthy (BIG IF on Conway). They play a last place schedule
to boot. Flutie has talent, can run and knows how to win games. Tomlinson
is a special back. Jones is superb. And, if Conway takes his cue from
these guys and gets interested in giving an effort, you might be in
the unusual position of drafting a Charger this year without feeling
that incredible shame you usually feel.
Parts
is Parts The other rookie RB to watch, Michael Bennett, is compared
to Robert Smith, the part-time player he replaces in Minnesota. Let's
hope that comparison is based on his football performance only. I
failed to hop on the Daunte Culpepper bandwagon last pre-season. I
won't make that mistake this year. Bennett will succeed in that offense
because he is the right kind of explosive back to fit the role required.
Minnesota must have him succeed if they are to succeed. As for the
knock on Bennett in some publications that Moe Williams could steal
goal line carries, let me ask one question: When was the last time
you saw Robert Smith get a goal line carry?
Now, for Rank Speculation: Finally, as a bonus to you, the reader:
the final score of this year's Super Bowl-- Rams 47 Broncos 13.
