The Weekly Gut Check - Vol. 49
Upon Further Review
10/6/05

The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information. This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.

Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic, he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider, or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast as you can!

A key component of The Gut Check’s draft strategy was the Crank Sheet. This week Yours Truly takes a peek at first quarter player consistency for the 2005 season. He’ll also give his take on the performances behind the numbers, and what he thinks may be in store down the line.

The data used in today’s information is based on a standard performance league scoring system—with the exception of a 1-point penalty per interception. There are some definite, early surprises at quarterback. The key thing to remember is the season still has many changes in store, so this information is fluid.

QB Surprises
Thus far, Roethlisberger, Bledsoe, and Eli Manning are surpassing even the loftiest expectations of those optimistic about their prospects. The Gut Check believes Eli Manning has the best collection of offensive talent to sustain this level of production—a common trait among the most consistent signal callers for 2003-2004.

Peyton Manning, Bulger, Green, Plummer, Hasselbeck, and Favre all have a capable receiving threat out of the backfield, and at least two other quality receivers on the outside, or at the tight end position. Barber, Burress, and Shockey match up well in comparison to these offenses, and Toomer is a solid #2 WR—finally a rightful role for the Giants receiver that was of questionable skills to be the primary weapon in the past. McNabb and Culpepper are exceptions to this tendency because they are both are excellent at creating yardage on their own, and both played with two of the best deep threats in the game.

Slow Out The Gate But Will Hit Their Stride
Peyton Manning, Trent Green, and Matt Hasselbeck are players that fall into this category. The Colts QB averaged two Sub Par games per year for the previous two seasons. This year, The Gut Check is willing to believe Manning will slip a bit from his 2004 performance, but not so far that he won’t continue to be an excellent play for the rest of the season.

If you noticed that there is an owner in your league that has always been competitive but no is getting off to a slow start, he might have Trent Green in his line up. The Kansas City signal caller is a favorite among savvy fantasy managers because he’s outperformed more highly regarded fantasy starters (McNabb and Favre) but is often available a few rounds later (at least). The problem has been the absence of Chiefs left tackle, Willie Roaf. The impact on the offense has been enormous—KC has been ineffective running to the outside, executing screen passes, and the Chiefs can’t be as liberal in their use of Tony Gonzalez as a receiver. In essence, The Gut Check is saying the absence of Roaf has limited this team’s two best players. Opposing defenses have a much easier time handling Green as a result. Fortunately, Roaf is scheduled to return to the lineup this week. Don’t be surprised if the Chiefs find their footing and have some quality offensive showings very soon.

Matt Hasselbeck has been a slow starter-strong finisher in fantasy leagues for the past two years. Bobby Engram has been a quality replacement—and possibly an upgrade—to Koren Robinson, but he’s now dealing with cracked ribs. If TE Jerramy Stevens can continue to play up to his enormous physical ability, Hasselbeck may actually be better in 2005, but don’t get too excited.

Put Them Out of Their Misery
The Gut Check hates to say this, but Daunte Culpepper is damaged goods for the rest of the year and sounds like he’s looking for a way out of playing the remainder of the season. When a quarterback tells the media that his injuries impacted his performance at such an early point of the season, it signals that he’s not far from opting for surgery, and ending his year early. There are many examples of quarterbacks playing well enough to keep the team in contention that either reveal their injury later on, or mention it but their production remains high. Pennington’s rotator cuff last year was a prime example.

Yours Truly has no proof Culpepper will choose to quit early, it’s just an observation based on Atlanta’s abuse of him Sunday. In contrast, Donovan McNabb has yet to say the sports hernia injury impacts his play—of course he’s playing great, and still has two game-changing weapons as his disposal. Culpepper used to have one. If you switch the teams surrounding these two quarterbacks, The Gut Check believes—as tough as McNabb is—Mrs. McNabb would be serving Campbell’s Soup to her son at the hospital in the very near future.

J.P. Losman is in a no-win situation. He’s on a team with enough talent to contend this year, but the front office had to jettison Drew Bledsoe, because the veteran would not hand over the job. Keeping Bledsoe would have ruined team chemistry because he would have likely split the locker room. If your boss comes to you one day and tells you he needs you to train someone for your position although you had no intention of leaving, you aren’t going to be happy. You’ll likely choose to leave, or try to prove to your boss you still have what it takes to be a key contributor. You’ll likely have co-workers on your side, which can create even more problems. The NFL is no different.

So Losman has to get the time to develop, but he has to do it quick enough to keep the team from turning on him quickly. Of course, the team has already been calling for Holcomb because they believe they still have the talent to contend. It doesn’t help that he has Minnesota RB Mewelde Moore talking to the press about his lack of leadership skills as a senior at Tulane.

Running back performance looks a lot different than many predicted, and in some cases this includes Yours Truly. The Gut Check did well with his assessment of backs such as McGahee, Julius Jones, Cadillac, and McAllister at this point. Of course Tomlinson and Alexander are performing to expectation but after that we get into new territory:

Surprises
Thomas Jones, Brian Westbrook, Tiki Barber, and Stephen Davis are surprises for completely different reasons. Jones wasn’t expected to start, or produce, at this high of a level due to the presence of Cedric Benson and the Bears QB issues. It doesn’t look like fantasy owners should count in it continuing because Benson is slated to get more carries very soon. In many circles Westbrook was considered a top-15 back. Yours Truly predicted Westbrook would be a top-10 back in 2005—during the preseason of 2004 (Yours Truly guesses every dog gets his bone at least once). The absence of Buckhalter and continued development of L.J. Smith has really opened up opportunities for Westbrook.

The Gut Check had Barber as his projected #3 back overall with his initial Crank Rankings, but later lowered him about 10-spots. So far, Barber has not only been consistent, but have of his games have also been elite performances. Those ten pounds of muscle added to Barber’s frame in the off season may have been a key indicator that the Giants starter will remain a quality fantasy play as a #1 RB all year. Stephen Davis was a total surprise, but Yours Truly isn’t too enthused about his rushing yardage. At the same time, Davis has been utilized as the Panthers goal line option, so he’ll still be a good starter. The Gut Check just isn’t convinced he’ll continue at the pace both he and Barber share at this juncture of the season.

Expectations Too High?
Many Corey Dillon, LaMont Jordan, and Willis McGahee owners seem to be lamenting their choice of these backs. Yours Truly feels the source of disappointment aimed towards Dillon has to do with his yardage totals combined with the media’s scrutiny of his play. If you are playing in strictly a yardage league with Dillon, point taken. But in performance leagues, Dillon had one bad game, and had just as many elite outings as the top backs on this list—just not as many points. At the same time, he’s certainly doing better than some of the hot, young backs many ranked ahead of him. One such example is Willis McGahee. The Buffalo Bill hasn’t been bad, but he was over valued. The Gut Check has been warning fantasy owners about this during the summer, but it’s a classic case of optimism blinding the logic of a situation. Yours Truly understands, he made this blunder with Ahman Green—there will be more, later about that colossal screw up. The Gut Check believes there’s still reason to be optimistic about McGahee if Holcomb can at least double Losman’s QB rating from the past two games.

Don’t Count Them Out
Yes, this writer is a Priest Holmes owner in multiple leagues but you have to be blinded by Larry Johnson’s potential (and presence on your roster) if you see that Holmes’ performance thus far has anything to do with diminishing skills. Willie Roaf is the key, and in two weeks Holmes owners should expect a big game against a good Redskins defense. This has to do with the bye week to prepare, Roaf’s return, and Holmes slated to get more carries as Vermeil does away with this contrived shared carries strategy. The Gut Check would be more worried about Johnson if the Penn State back could block, hold onto the ball, and stay out of trouble. By the way, Yours Truly is also an LJ owner that’s watched the KC v. Oakland and KC v. Denver matchup’s multiple times to draw this conclusion.

Mike Anderson’s only issue has been early injury. The Gut Check believes a now healthy, Anderson (relatively so) will be an ideal #2 RB in a two-back starting lineup, but capable of solid #1 RB numbers on a team filled with players with high Crank scores. Anderson may be a good player to target in trades because his injuries and the Broncos notorious committee system may have some worried about his prospects.

Don’t Get Too Excited
Willie Parker may have some excellent games during the next three quarters of the season, but a ten-pound weight loss in four outings signals to the coaching staff that his body isn’t currently trained well enough to handle the grind of the season. The Gut Check envisions Bettis as the goal line, short-yardage back, and Staley as the 3rd down back. This means Fast Willie better generate a lot of first downs to stay on the field during long drives.

Cut Bait
The Gut Check was completely wrong about Ahman Green and learned his lesson about the value of interior line play. The Gut Check thought the Packers replacements had enough talent to adequate replacements, but so far he’s mistaken. Green has not looked bad when it comes to individual effort, but the net result behind that line has been horrid. Now that the line is even worse shape with injuries to the guard and center positions, Green’s chances of gaining consistent yardage other than in the passing game looks slim. Reuben Droughns has been a solid, #2 RB but he lacks the breakaway skills of Lee Suggs. The Va. Tech product has recovered sufficiently to impress Romeo Crennell in practice. The Gut Check isn’t sold Suggs will win the job outright this year, but he will cut into Droughns production.

What Makes This Year So Different?
Plaxico Burress and Santana Moss are beginning to look like the receivers many owners expected they would become upon entering the league. So why have they finally turned it on this year? The Gut Check believes it’s partially due to the change in offensive systems. Both played in conservative offenses that either emphasized the run and/or short passing game. Moss doesn’t mesh well with a West Coast Offense because of he’s short and light for an NFL receiver. His strength is the deep ball, and Joe Gibbs has always been a coach that employs a vertical attack. Health has been a huge factor in Moss’ start, too.

Burress gets to step out of Hines Ward’s shadow and be the primary guy in New York. He, like his quarterback, benefit from a balanced offense that can’t devoted too much focus to stopping one player. Between Moss and Burress, The Gut Check is most inclined to believe the Giants’ receiver will continue to experience the most success because the offense has shown more signs of balance and consistency.

Don’t Quit On Them Now
Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne are poised to come back in a big way as Peyton Manning and the Colts offense re-establish their aerial dominance in the second quarter of the season. Drew Bennett has consistently one play away from solid outings. Unfortunately for the Titans, his untimely issues have been the turning point in half their contests this year. The Gut Check knows that Bennett has been a notoriously slow starter and has tended to have nagging injuries to start season. This year is no exception—Bennett is battling a bruised heel.

Adios
Laveranues Coles may have some nice games if Vinny can hit him deep, but it’s hard to believe a consistent connection will get established here between the two, (somewhat) new Jets. Michael Clayton has been off to a horrible start, and he’s playing with a bum shoulder that continues to get re-aggravated with each game. Not a good sign. Brandon Lloyd was off to a great start, but The Gut Check is more inclined to say, “wait til next year,” as he and newly appointed rookie starter Alex Smith take time to get acquainted under live fire. There will be some successes, but Yours Truly is wary the 49ers rookie QB will consistently identify the best opportunities to use Lloyd’s skills to his advantage. This kind of inconsistent production can wreak havoc with a fantasy squad, so be careful.

As he has for the past few weeks, The Gut Check is providing scouting profiles and checklists on NFL prospects—college juniors and seniors. The checklist and profiles include:

• An overall weighted score for the position on a 100-point scale
  
  
• Position specific criteria broken down into key components
  
  
• Game day stats
  
  
• Analysis and commentary of each key component based on film study of the prospect’s performance in live action
  
  
• Analysis and commentary of overall strengths and weaknesses based on film study

• 92 carries, 513 yards (5.6 avg.)
  
• A 20-carry, 145-yard performance at South Carolina
  
• A 15-carry, 101-yard performance vs. Florida
  
• No fumbles in his 345 attempts at Alabama