Mid-Season Crank Scores
11/10/05
The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense
of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check
is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s
a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information.
This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s
potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining
the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines
that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.
Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic,
he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and
help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep
a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This
way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider,
or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast
as you can!
This week The Gut Check provides a snap shot of mid-season Crank
Scores for QB, RB, & WR.
QBs Mid-Year Crank Scores
| |
Fantasy Pts |
Consistency |
| QB |
Avg |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
Elite |
Subpar |
1 |
2 |
Crank |
| Carson Palmer |
20.3 |
18 |
28.2 |
20.2 |
17.7 |
17.1 |
22 |
16.2 |
22.9 |
13% |
0% |
75% |
100% |
53.25 |
| Donovan McNabb |
21.2 |
9.9 |
34.1 |
26.1 |
29.4 |
6.8 |
N/A |
16.3 |
25.5 |
25% |
25% |
50% |
63% |
47.1 |
| Brett Favre |
19.9 |
5.0 |
29.0 |
15.5 |
28.4 |
23.7 |
N/A |
23.8 |
13.9 |
25% |
13% |
50% |
75% |
44.53 |
| Marc Bulger |
20.1 |
25.9 |
13.8 |
19.9 |
28.0 |
23.8 |
9.1 |
N/A |
N/A |
13% |
13% |
50% |
63% |
42.43 |
| Drew Bledsoe |
18.2 |
21.0 |
17.6 |
30.7 |
14.3 |
27.9 |
12.8 |
8.9 |
12.0 |
25% |
38% |
50% |
63% |
40.09 |
| Tom Brady |
18.4 |
23.2 |
13.5 |
17.6 |
14.6 |
28.6 |
20.2 |
N/A |
11.4 |
13% |
13% |
50% |
75% |
38.94 |
| Mark Brunell |
17.3 |
3.3 |
25.1 |
N/A |
19.9 |
22.8 |
22.8 |
24.6 |
2.4 |
0% |
25% |
63% |
63% |
38.36 |
| Ben Roethlisberger |
18.0 |
19.4 |
20.7 |
20.5 |
N/A |
19.8 |
N/A |
11.2 |
16.3 |
0% |
13% |
50% |
63% |
35.72 |
| Drew Brees |
16.8 |
16.7 |
4.8 |
17.5 |
20.3 |
14.3 |
11.7 |
21.9 |
27.3 |
13% |
25% |
50% |
75% |
35.23 |
| Eli Manning |
17.7 |
14.6 |
12.3 |
26.9 |
30.6 |
N/A |
11.8 |
17.7 |
10.3 |
25% |
38% |
38% |
50% |
34.74 |
| Jake Delhomme |
17.3 |
11.3 |
6.5 |
22.3 |
15.0 |
19.1 |
17.3 |
N/A |
29.3 |
13% |
25% |
38% |
63% |
31.86 |
| Jake Plummer |
17.2 |
13.4 |
11.6 |
18.5 |
14.5 |
9.0 |
21.7 |
14.8 |
33.7 |
13% |
25% |
38% |
75% |
31.66 |
| Kerry Collins |
18.1 |
24.5 |
15.2 |
25.2 |
10.8 |
N/A |
13.6 |
14.8 |
22.8 |
0% |
13% |
38% |
75% |
31.48 |
| Matt Hasselbeck |
17.5 |
15.9 |
23.0 |
12.1 |
17.7 |
24.2 |
15.4 |
14.3 |
N/A |
0% |
13% |
38% |
75% |
30.4 |
| Peyton Manning |
16.5 |
20.5 |
5.1 |
10.1 |
29.5 |
14.8 |
18.2 |
17.1 |
N/A |
13% |
25% |
38% |
63% |
30.38 |
| Aaron Brooks |
15.6 |
9.8 |
17.8 |
14.9 |
17.9 |
8.5 |
22.8 |
21.3 |
11.5 |
0% |
38% |
50% |
63% |
30.38 |
| Steve McNair |
16.1 |
10.9 |
14.0 |
19.5 |
18.0 |
25.1 |
11.7 |
N/A |
13.6 |
0% |
25% |
38% |
63% |
27.7 |
| Daunte Culpepper |
14.5 |
3.9 |
13.8 |
30.6 |
12.5 |
N/A |
11.3 |
26.1 |
3.2 |
13% |
50% |
25% |
38% |
22.54 |
| Byron Leftwich |
14.9 |
21.5 |
11.0 |
14.1 |
11.3 |
16.1 |
12.0 |
N/A |
18.6 |
0% |
38% |
25% |
50% |
21.66 |
| Michael Vick |
15.4 |
13.6 |
14.5 |
21.8 |
12.3 |
N/A |
13.7 |
16.6 |
N/A |
0% |
13% |
13% |
63% |
19.02 |
| Trent Green |
15.1 |
8.9 |
12.1 |
15.1 |
17.4 |
N/A |
15.6 |
14.3 |
22.6 |
0% |
25% |
13% |
63% |
18.43 |
| Gus Frerotte |
12.6 |
21.0 |
11.9 |
15.3 |
N/A |
17.9 |
8.3 |
5.3 |
8.3 |
0% |
50% |
25% |
38% |
17.86 |
| Trent Dilfer |
11.9 |
13.4 |
29.3 |
10.4 |
N/A |
16.8 |
0.4 |
1.9 |
11.2 |
13% |
50% |
13% |
38% |
15.38 |
Thus far, it appears as if The Gut Check is on track for his
projections to be too high for the real season. We’ll see
how the second half fares before going back to the drawing board
just yet. Brunell, Palmer, Bledose, and Roethlisberger have been
the most pleasant surprises, so far. Yours Truly is optimistic
about the second half for Brunell, and is slowly coming around
about Palmer although still a bit cautious due to a tougher schedule.
It’s hard to expect Brett Favre or McNabb to be as good
due to injuries or missing talent at key spots for them.
Expect Plummer, Collins, Peyton Manning, Byron Leftwich, and Trent
Green to have better second half performances. Plummer’s
past few games have been excellent now that teams have to respect
the Broncos two-headed rushing attack. Collins has re-established
a rapport with Porter, Jordan is getting the right amount of opportunities
now, and a healthy Moss should mean more explosive plays as the
Raiders face more divisional foes this month, and next. Manning
may not have any 4-TD games, but he should have some 2-3 touchdown
contests as teams begin to adjust their game plan based on 2005
game film.
RB Mid-Year Crank Scores
| |
Fantasy Pts |
Consistency |
| QB |
Avg |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
Elite |
Subpar |
1 |
2 |
Crank |
| Edgerrin James |
20.3 |
11.0 |
17.0 |
20.0 |
16.0 |
17.7 |
33.9 |
26.7 |
N/A |
38% |
0% |
75% |
88% |
76.23 |
| LaMont Jordan |
19.3 |
11.0 |
15.0 |
13.0 |
21.0 |
N/A |
21.4 |
34.2 |
19.6 |
50% |
0% |
75% |
88% |
74.9 |
| Shaun Alexander |
21.8 |
7.3 |
22.0 |
38.0 |
16.0 |
25.5 |
38.2 |
6.1 |
N/A |
50% |
0% |
63% |
63% |
73.67 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson |
19.7 |
13.0 |
17.0 |
37.0 |
29.0 |
19.0 |
29.9 |
3.3 |
9.2 |
50% |
13% |
75% |
75% |
73.63 |
| Steven Jackson |
16.2 |
7.3 |
17.0 |
5.4 |
15.0 |
19.9 |
15.7 |
23.6 |
26.0 |
38% |
0% |
75% |
75% |
58.77 |
| Tiki Barber |
16.3 |
18.0 |
21.0 |
6.5 |
20.0 |
N/A |
6.9 |
14.0 |
27.1 |
38% |
0% |
63% |
63% |
52.88 |
| Willis McGahee |
14.3 |
13.0 |
3.3 |
20.0 |
16.0 |
15.1 |
22.7 |
8.6 |
15.7 |
25% |
13% |
75% |
75% |
49.93 |
| Thomas Jones |
15.5 |
11.0 |
28.0 |
17.0 |
N/A |
14.2 |
18.5 |
13.4 |
6.7 |
13% |
0% |
63% |
75% |
48.44 |
| Priest Holmes |
15.3 |
15.0 |
15.0 |
9.3 |
17.0 |
N/A |
23.8 |
21.7 |
5.3 |
25% |
0% |
63% |
63% |
47.72 |
| Corey Dillon |
15.2 |
21.0 |
3.6 |
20.0 |
15.0 |
11.9 |
N/A |
N/A |
19.2 |
38% |
13% |
50% |
63% |
45.25 |
| Brian Westbrook |
14.7 |
17.0 |
18.0 |
33.0 |
4.8 |
3.6 |
N/A |
10.0 |
16.4 |
13% |
13% |
50% |
63% |
40.1 |
| Stephen Davis |
13.5 |
14.0 |
26.0 |
5.2 |
19.0 |
10.6 |
2.7 |
N/A |
16.7 |
25% |
13% |
50% |
63% |
38.44 |
| Domanick Davis |
12.9 |
5.7 |
15.0 |
N/A |
11.0 |
17.3 |
12.8 |
16.5 |
11.6 |
0% |
0% |
50% |
75% |
35.48 |
| Warrick Dunn |
13.0 |
12.0 |
5.4 |
10.0 |
19.0 |
10.6 |
17.5 |
16.1 |
N/A |
13% |
0% |
38% |
75% |
34.05 |
| Mike Anderson |
11.8 |
0.5 |
9.0 |
16.0 |
14.0 |
5.0 |
11.7 |
18.0 |
20.2 |
13% |
13% |
50% |
63% |
32.2 |
| Clinton Portis |
12.6 |
12.0 |
7.7 |
N/A |
11.0 |
13.0 |
12.8 |
29.3 |
2.2 |
13% |
13% |
38% |
63% |
31.14 |
| Willie Parker |
12.2 |
27.0 |
17.0 |
4.9 |
N/A |
4.0 |
5.5 |
19.1 |
8.1 |
25% |
0% |
38% |
38% |
29.04 |
| Fred Taylor |
12.2 |
9.0 |
9.9 |
16.0 |
2.7 |
13.2 |
N/A |
N/A |
22.4 |
13% |
13% |
38% |
50% |
28.65 |
| Deuce McAllister |
12.6 |
19.0 |
9.1 |
14.0 |
15.0 |
6.4 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
13% |
0% |
38% |
38% |
28.44 |
| Cadillac Williams |
12.0 |
21.0 |
19.0 |
16.0 |
1.9 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
2.5 |
25% |
25% |
38% |
38% |
27.91 |
| Ronnie Brown |
11.5 |
6.1 |
4.0 |
21.0 |
N/A |
8.6 |
12.6 |
17.0 |
11.8 |
13% |
0% |
38% |
50% |
27.41 |
| Julius Jones |
13.4 |
17.0 |
11.0 |
23.0 |
8.8 |
7.2 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
13% |
0% |
25% |
38% |
26.76 |
| Curtis Martin |
11.1 |
7.7 |
7.8 |
7.1 |
4.5 |
17.9 |
21.1 |
11.4 |
N/A |
13% |
0% |
25% |
38% |
22.14 |
| Rudi Johnson |
10.3 |
20.0 |
9.3 |
8.2 |
8.8 |
8.3 |
14.3 |
6.6 |
7.0 |
13% |
0% |
25% |
25% |
19.29 |
| Larry Johnson |
9.5 |
24.0 |
10.0 |
1.3 |
0.4 |
N/A |
5.5 |
17.9 |
7.2 |
13% |
25% |
25% |
38% |
18.5 |
| Kevan Barlow |
9.7 |
9.9 |
6.5 |
9.3 |
5.5 |
12.8 |
N/A |
11.4 |
12.2 |
0% |
0% |
13% |
50% |
16.9 |
| Chris Brown |
9.1 |
6.3 |
5.8 |
8.8 |
4.8 |
9.1 |
20.2 |
0.7 |
17.0 |
13% |
13% |
25% |
25% |
16.79 |
Surprised? So is The Gut Check—Edgerrin James and LaMont
Jordan are the two most consistent backs at the halfway point
of the 2005 season! James isn’t a huge surprise because
he has the track record for this type of production. When your
average yards per game over the course of your career, is up there
with the all-time greats at the position, this kind of season
makes sense. Jordan on the other hand, is a shocker. At the same
time, it shouldn’t be when we examine the circumstances
more closely. First, Norv Turner is a proponent of the ground
game—he has coached Emmitt Smith, Ricky Williams, Stephen
Davis, and LT through some of their best seasons. Randy Moss did
the same thing to fantasy owners as he does to defenses—he
forces you to back off the Raiders running game and pay more attention
to him. Meanwhile Jordan is having a fine year—even his
“slow start,” was sub par by any means.
Look for Jordan, Steven Jackson, and the Chiefs starting RB (now
Johnson) to continue a high level of production as their offenses
continue to grow more balanced in nature. Tiki Barber tends to
wear down a bit as the season progresses, but this year the Giants
halfback has added muscle to his frame. In addition, Brandon Jacobs
will continue to spell Barber in order to keep him fresh as the
season winds down. Corey Dillon may be hurt and his offensive
line is in flux, but he’s still been a good play. Don’t
expect this to change much if Dillon can heal up a bit more.
WR Mid-Year Crank Scores
| |
Fantasy Pts |
Consistency |
| QB |
Avg |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
Elite |
Subpar |
1 |
2 |
3 |
Crank |
| Terrell Owens |
17.9 |
11.2 |
26.3 |
14.0 |
23.1 |
N/A |
11.3 |
21.6 |
N/A |
50% |
0% |
75% |
75% |
75% |
80.63 |
| Steve Smith |
17.8 |
19.8 |
3.4 |
31.8 |
1.2 |
23.9 |
18.3 |
N/A |
26.1 |
63% |
25% |
63% |
63% |
63% |
72.87 |
| Torry Holt |
14.6 |
12.5 |
13.0 |
22.3 |
14.4 |
18.6 |
7.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
50% |
0% |
63% |
63% |
75% |
60.36 |
| Santana Moss |
15.0 |
9.6 |
27.9 |
N/A |
8.7 |
11.6 |
29.3 |
17.2 |
0.4 |
38% |
13% |
50% |
75% |
75% |
57.71 |
| Joey Galloway |
13.6 |
9.7 |
0.0 |
17.3 |
23.0 |
8.7 |
15.6 |
N/A |
20.9 |
50% |
13% |
50% |
75% |
75% |
54.15 |
| Larry Fitzgerald |
12.6 |
21.5 |
9.5 |
4.0 |
16.2 |
19.6 |
N/A |
13.1 |
4.1 |
50% |
25% |
50% |
63% |
63% |
46.64 |
| Anquan Boldin |
11.5 |
6.2 |
11.9 |
10.6 |
17.7 |
19.5 |
N/A |
1.5 |
12.9 |
38% |
13% |
63% |
63% |
63% |
44.2 |
| Chad Johnson |
11.6 |
10.2 |
19.9 |
19.6 |
6.7 |
11.2 |
9.4 |
7.0 |
9.1 |
25% |
0% |
38% |
75% |
100% |
43.64 |
| Plaxico Burress |
12.1 |
13.6 |
6.4 |
11.2 |
32.4 |
N/A |
2.5 |
14.4 |
4.2 |
38% |
13% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
40.59 |
| Kevin Curtis |
10.4 |
6.3 |
2.9 |
11.6 |
4.8 |
12.3 |
13.3 |
15.5 |
16.5 |
38% |
13% |
63% |
63% |
63% |
40.05 |
| Darrell Jackson |
12.4 |
12.5 |
13.1 |
12.5 |
11.5 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
13% |
0% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
38.75 |
| Hines Ward |
11.9 |
2.4 |
20.4 |
23.0 |
N/A |
8.3 |
9.9 |
N/A |
7.5 |
25% |
13% |
25% |
38% |
63% |
32.52 |
| Houshmandzadeh |
10.4 |
7.5 |
19.9 |
1.3 |
11.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
9.2 |
13.4 |
25% |
13% |
38% |
50% |
63% |
32.2 |
| Randy Moss |
10.2 |
19.0 |
18.7 |
8.6 |
12.3 |
N/A |
0.0 |
10.3 |
2.6 |
25% |
25% |
38% |
50% |
63% |
31.42 |
| Keenan McCardell |
10.1 |
24.3 |
5.4 |
20.0 |
7.1 |
0.5 |
2.0 |
13.8 |
7.3 |
38% |
25% |
38% |
38% |
63% |
30.91 |
| Donald Diver |
10.3 |
4.8 |
16.5 |
4.9 |
15.2 |
4.8 |
N/A |
17.4 |
8.5 |
38% |
0% |
38% |
38% |
50% |
30.9 |
| Terry Glenn |
10.8 |
4.2 |
21.7 |
13.7 |
6.4 |
23.8 |
6.4 |
3.5 |
6.5 |
38% |
13% |
38% |
38% |
38% |
30.73 |
| Rod Smith |
9.2 |
9.0 |
8.3 |
14.0 |
3.3 |
2.3 |
18.3 |
5.1 |
13.6 |
38% |
25% |
38% |
50% |
63% |
29.52 |
| Marvin Harrison |
9.8 |
12.9 |
3.6 |
5.3 |
22.9 |
1.7 |
9.9 |
12.5 |
N/A |
25% |
25% |
38% |
50% |
50% |
28.99 |
| Deion Branch |
9.3 |
15.9 |
6.0 |
7.8 |
0.6 |
10.7 |
8.7 |
N/A |
15.2 |
25% |
13% |
38% |
50% |
63% |
28.72 |
| Keyshawn Johnson |
8.4 |
18.5 |
2.6 |
13.4 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
9.0 |
8.8 |
11.4 |
25% |
38% |
38% |
63% |
63% |
26.59 |
| Eddie Kennison |
9.2 |
7.6 |
6.0 |
11.2 |
19.2 |
N/A |
0.0 |
2.8 |
17.5 |
25% |
25% |
38% |
38% |
50% |
25.91 |
| Jimmy Smith |
9.6 |
25.0 |
4.9 |
10.1 |
16.9 |
4.3 |
3.2 |
N/A |
2.7 |
25% |
25% |
25% |
38% |
38% |
23.46 |
| Chris Chambers |
8.9 |
7.1 |
2.9 |
15.3 |
N/A |
6.0 |
7.5 |
14.8 |
8.6 |
25% |
13% |
25% |
25% |
63% |
23.08 |
| Donte' Stallworth |
7.5 |
4.7 |
14.1 |
0.0 |
12.9 |
0.6 |
14.3 |
8.2 |
5.2 |
38% |
25% |
38% |
38% |
50% |
22 |
| Reggie Wayne |
8.0 |
5.0 |
1.9 |
9.7 |
10.8 |
7.5 |
11.9 |
8.9 |
N/A |
0% |
13% |
25% |
50% |
63% |
20.64 |
| Joe Jurevicius |
8.0 |
12.4 |
6.6 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
19.7 |
8.9 |
5.4 |
N/A |
13% |
25% |
25% |
38% |
50% |
19.61 |
Talk about waiver wire specials making an impact! It’s
conceivable in many leagues that Kevin Curtis, Terry Glenn, Donté
Stallworth, and Joe Jurevicius were all free agents either to
begin the season, or soon after. Not any more. Joey Galloway,
Santana Moss, and Steve Smith are the ultimate bounce back players
after succumbing to injuries in 2004. Only Smith has a relatively
high average draft value entering 2005 and he’s posting
an incredibly high rate of elite performances to start the season.
The Gut Check is wary of Terry Glenn as the Cowboy’s receiver
enters what seems like un-chartered territory—seeing the
second half of the season from the playing field. Hopefully Glenn
doesn’t fall off the edge of the earth, but even if he remains
healthy, his numbers haven’t been as impressive. On the
other hand, Yours Truly is optimistic about Jimmy Smith, now that
Ernest Wilford is doing what a solid #2 is supposed to do: make
plays when the defense is pre-occupied with Smith and then as
defenses recognize him as a consistent threat, this forces the
defense to play Smith more honestly. This adjustment should result
in greater production.
Scouting Checklist Week 10 —
RB Tyrone Moss,
Miami
Why do a checklist on Moss when he’s likely returning to
Miami for his senior year? The answer has to do with the reason
why Moss will likely return—a torn anterior cruciate ligament
this weekend against Va. Tech. As with Willis McGahee, Jamal Lewis
and Frank Gore, NFL personnel men tend to drop a player’s
draft status once this type of injury occurs. Yet, we have all
seen how a player with a surgically repaired knee can eventually
recover and demonstrate the talent in the NFL that they once displayed
on the college gridiron. Moss should be no exception. The Gut
Check has analyzed the Hurricanes games versus FSU and Clemson—Moss’
overall score was exactly the same for both.
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